RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID007T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID007T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 684 1 Cascade,Radar-St.,Payett DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 684 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2140 4426-11605 1716 1983 684 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 684042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 6.867 0.519 -1.141 5.864 0.063 0.405 2 684012 1733 1983 251 6.432 0.583 -1.163 6.977 0.066 0.562 3 684021 1734 1983 250 6.150 0.626 -0.327 2.743 0.083 0.455 4 684022 1766 1983 218 5.887 0.515 -0.661 4.219 0.083 0.264 5 684031 1734 1983 250 6.219 0.552 -0.988 5.346 0.082 0.280 6 684032 1739 1983 245 6.408 0.717 -0.623 5.071 0.074 0.659 7 684041 1734 1983 250 6.388 0.593 -0.833 4.606 0.085 0.237 8 684042 1725 1983 259 6.331 0.591 -0.924 5.335 0.083 0.318 9 684051 1733 1983 251 6.462 0.503 -0.521 4.618 0.066 0.446 10 684052 1725 1983 259 6.504 0.513 -0.554 3.657 0.060 0.498 11 684061 1765 1983 219 6.155 0.459 -0.333 3.230 0.053 0.586 12 684062 1747 1983 237 5.339 0.659 -0.510 3.231 0.075 0.688 13 684071 1734 1983 250 6.129 0.921 -0.379 2.119 0.062 0.855 14 684072 1736 1983 248 6.874 0.436 -0.881 5.022 0.058 0.276 15 684081 1717 1983 267 5.880 0.513 -0.330 4.014 0.061 0.559 16 684082 1719 1983 265 6.217 0.559 -0.477 2.979 0.065 0.591 17 684091 1734 1983 250 6.468 0.612 -0.667 3.892 0.079 0.471 18 684092 1751 1983 233 6.675 0.448 -0.890 5.544 0.060 0.299 19 684101 1728 1983 256 6.446 0.526 -0.860 5.432 0.077 0.242 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 6.470 0.567 -0.445 3.026 0.077 0.361 21 684111 1726 1983 258 6.539 0.725 0.017 2.665 0.069 0.662 22 684112 1735 1983 249 6.469 0.621 -0.458 3.046 0.067 0.617 23 684121 1725 1983 259 5.846 0.607 -0.800 3.953 0.088 0.405 24 684122 1716 1983 268 5.954 0.593 -0.671 4.053 0.090 0.338 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1716 TO 1983 268 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 6.296 0.582 -0.643 4.194 0.072 0.461 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.345 0.104 0.286 1.208 0.011 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 6.398 0.575 -0.642 4.034 0.071 0.450 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.330 0.102 0.419 2.065 0.020 0.281 MINIMUM VALUE 218 5.339 0.436 -1.163 2.119 0.053 0.237 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 6.139 0.514 -0.871 3.138 0.062 0.308 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 6.469 0.616 -0.452 5.203 0.082 0.589 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 6.874 0.921 0.017 6.977 0.090 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.280 0.168 0.010 -0.238 2.982 -0.253 0.728 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.253 SERIES 684021 AND 684062 237 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.728 SERIES 684021 AND 684022 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.233 0.403 0.419 0.273 0.381 0.419 0.313 0.277 SDEV 0.203 0.268 0.228 0.222 0.218 0.190 0.215 0.205 SERR 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.011 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.874 0.942 0.945 0.900 0.937 0.945 0.916 0.902 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 6.339 0.330 -1.262 6.463 0.049 0.250 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.321 -0.129 1.410 72 196 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.42 1.01 1.05 1.46 3.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 12. 218. 246. 259. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.250 0.156 0.193 0.251 0.194 0.253 0.162 0.199 0.222 0.175 PACF 0.250 0.100 0.143 0.180 0.085 0.163 0.022 0.087 0.094 0.020 95% C.L. 0.122 0.130 0.132 0.136 0.143 0.147 0.153 0.156 0.160 0.164 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.157 0.150 0.017 0.084 0.161 0.062 0.172 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 1 0.38516840 0.02212250 0.00000000 6.80228043 2 684012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00174878 6.65281582 3 684021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00196382 5.90310097 4 684022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00156249 5.71606350 5 684031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088759 6.10804701 6 684032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00203802 6.15716076 7 684041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134881 6.55679512 8 684042 1 0.95752656 0.03734578 0.00000000 6.23265791 9 684051 1 0.28378522 0.01733046 0.00000000 6.39823151 10 684052 1 1.06621778 0.00865422 0.00000000 6.08127022 11 684061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00321349 6.50868940 12 684062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00473668 5.90231514 13 684071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00976105 7.35413218 14 684072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117488 6.72751808 15 684081 1 1.25690770 0.03071131 0.00000000 5.72888041 16 684082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00336777 6.66534710 17 684091 1 0.93851173 0.01271276 0.00000000 6.18693876 18 684092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076078 6.76446152 19 684101 1 0.73140788 0.01335917 0.00000000 6.24085140 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 1 0.33300659 0.01588531 0.00000000 6.38087702 21 684111 1 1.84616721 0.00766687 0.00000000 5.73831034 22 684112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00383440 6.94781351 23 684121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00358597 6.31258583 24 684122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00126965 5.78337336 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.075 -1.078 5.820 0.062 0.389 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.089 -0.924 6.227 0.065 0.547 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.100 -0.216 2.918 0.082 0.430 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.086 -0.575 4.355 0.083 0.239 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.088 -1.018 5.521 0.082 0.268 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.110 -0.467 5.281 0.073 0.645 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.092 -0.774 4.796 0.085 0.216 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.088 -1.165 5.803 0.082 0.237 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.077 -0.528 4.540 0.066 0.433 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.068 -0.796 4.690 0.060 0.319 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.067 -0.556 3.405 0.053 0.470 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.108 -0.613 3.018 0.075 0.578 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.105 0.577 4.915 0.062 0.687 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.062 -0.827 5.150 0.058 0.249 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.075 -0.799 4.461 0.061 0.412 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.080 -0.578 3.654 0.065 0.475 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.088 -0.576 4.154 0.078 0.387 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.067 -0.967 5.565 0.059 0.285 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.077 -1.030 6.032 0.077 0.130 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.087 -0.439 3.241 0.076 0.340 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.087 -0.589 3.374 0.069 0.417 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.087 -0.404 3.293 0.067 0.513 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.094 -0.779 4.189 0.087 0.262 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.098 -0.766 4.187 0.090 0.317 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.086 -0.662 4.525 0.072 0.385 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.013 0.355 1.011 0.011 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.087 -0.690 4.501 0.071 0.388 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.017 0.333 1.871 0.020 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.062 -1.165 2.918 0.053 0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.076 -0.875 3.530 0.062 0.265 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.093 -0.542 5.401 0.082 0.472 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.110 0.577 6.227 0.090 0.687 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 684012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 684021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 684022 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 684031 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 684032 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 684041 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 684042 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 684051 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 684052 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 684061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 684062 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 684071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 684072 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 684081 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 684082 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 684091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 684092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 684101 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 684111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 684112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 684121 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 684122 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.069 -1.185 6.502 0.062 0.280 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.078 -0.724 5.750 0.065 0.414 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.078 -0.303 3.622 0.082 0.071 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.081 -0.703 4.686 0.083 0.139 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.087 -1.024 5.450 0.082 0.245 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.107 -0.582 5.427 0.073 0.623 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.088 -0.878 5.285 0.085 0.156 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.087 -1.180 5.836 0.082 0.197 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.074 -0.511 4.637 0.066 0.374 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.067 -0.767 4.729 0.060 0.298 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.060 -0.654 4.291 0.053 0.340 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.999 0.092 -0.465 3.376 0.075 0.410 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.084 -0.337 3.965 0.062 0.533 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.060 -0.916 5.994 0.058 0.195 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.074 -0.798 4.516 0.061 0.393 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.076 -0.558 4.068 0.065 0.430 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.081 -0.601 4.139 0.078 0.285 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.063 -1.191 6.210 0.059 0.196 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.076 -1.070 6.210 0.077 0.107 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.079 -0.686 3.734 0.076 0.220 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.076 -0.813 3.866 0.069 0.226 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.999 0.075 -0.556 3.635 0.067 0.352 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.090 -0.904 4.563 0.087 0.193 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.094 -0.830 4.575 0.090 0.259 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.079 -0.760 4.795 0.072 0.289 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.011 0.253 0.939 0.011 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.078 -0.746 4.606 0.071 0.269 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.013 0.340 1.583 0.020 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.999 0.060 -1.191 3.376 0.053 0.071 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.074 -0.910 4.017 0.062 0.196 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.087 -0.570 5.600 0.082 0.383 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.107 -0.303 6.502 0.090 0.623 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.319 0.137 0.008 -0.173 3.140 -0.129 0.702 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 684012 AND 684071 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.702 SERIES 684021 AND 684022 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.265 0.417 0.432 0.291 0.387 0.434 0.325 0.290 SDEV 0.202 0.242 0.220 0.215 0.215 0.173 0.202 0.194 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.010 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.891 0.945 0.948 0.908 0.938 0.948 0.920 0.907 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 1.002 0.047 -1.669 9.575 0.049 0.055 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.413 -0.147 0.209 110 158 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.36 1.00 1.09 1.45 19.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.055 -0.059 -0.015 0.074 0.017 0.058 -0.054 0.021 0.054 0.002 PACF 0.055 -0.063 -0.008 0.073 0.008 0.065 -0.059 0.030 0.045 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.036 -0.057 -0.002 0.076 -0.007 0.075 -0.024 0.024 0.053 -0.004 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.036 2 0.038 -0.058 3 0.039 -0.058 0.002 4 0.038 -0.054 0.000 0.073 5 0.039 -0.054 -0.001 0.073 -0.013 6 0.040 -0.060 -0.001 0.078 -0.017 0.085 7 0.043 -0.061 0.001 0.078 -0.018 0.086 -0.032 8 0.044 -0.064 0.002 0.075 -0.019 0.088 -0.033 0.030 9 0.043 -0.062 -0.002 0.076 -0.022 0.088 -0.030 0.028 0.050 10 0.044 -0.061 -0.003 0.078 -0.023 0.089 -0.030 0.027 0.051 -0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1536.42 1538.07 1539.16 1541.16 1541.74 1543.69 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1543.75 1545.48 1547.23 1548.55 1550.47 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 684011 0 0.079 2 684012 0 0.176 3 684021 0 0.005 4 684022 0 0.019 5 684031 0 0.060 6 684032 0 0.391 7 684041 0 0.025 8 684042 0 0.039 9 684051 0 0.140 10 684052 0 0.089 11 684061 0 0.116 12 684062 0 0.169 13 684071 0 0.296 14 684072 0 0.038 15 684081 0 0.154 16 684082 0 0.186 17 684091 0 0.082 18 684092 0 0.038 19 684101 0 0.012 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 684102 0 0.049 21 684111 0 0.052 22 684112 0 0.124 23 684121 0 0.037 24 684122 0 0.068 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.102 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.093 MEDIAN 0 0.073 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.005 LOWER HINGE 0 0.038 UPPER HINGE 0 0.147 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.391 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.069 -1.185 6.502 0.062 0.280 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.078 -0.724 5.750 0.065 0.414 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.078 -0.303 3.622 0.082 0.071 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.081 -0.703 4.686 0.083 0.139 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.087 -1.024 5.450 0.082 0.245 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.107 -0.582 5.427 0.073 0.623 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.088 -0.878 5.285 0.085 0.156 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.087 -1.180 5.836 0.082 0.197 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.074 -0.511 4.637 0.066 0.374 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.067 -0.767 4.729 0.060 0.298 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.060 -0.654 4.291 0.053 0.340 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.092 -0.465 3.376 0.075 0.410 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.084 -0.337 3.965 0.062 0.533 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.060 -0.916 5.994 0.058 0.195 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.074 -0.798 4.516 0.061 0.393 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.076 -0.558 4.068 0.065 0.430 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.081 -0.601 4.139 0.078 0.285 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.063 -1.191 6.210 0.059 0.196 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.076 -1.070 6.210 0.077 0.107 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.079 -0.686 3.734 0.076 0.220 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.076 -0.813 3.866 0.069 0.226 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.075 -0.556 3.635 0.066 0.352 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.090 -0.904 4.563 0.087 0.193 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.094 -0.830 4.575 0.090 0.259 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.079 -0.760 4.795 0.072 0.289 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.011 0.253 0.939 0.011 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.078 -0.746 4.606 0.071 0.269 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.013 0.340 1.583 0.020 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.060 -1.191 3.376 0.053 0.071 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.074 -0.910 4.017 0.062 0.196 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.087 -0.570 5.600 0.082 0.383 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.107 -0.303 6.502 0.090 0.623 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.319 0.137 0.008 -0.173 3.140 -0.129 0.702 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 684012 AND 684071 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.702 SERIES 684021 AND 684022 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.265 0.417 0.432 0.291 0.387 0.434 0.325 0.290 SDEV 0.202 0.242 0.220 0.215 0.215 0.173 0.202 0.194 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.010 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.891 0.945 0.948 0.908 0.938 0.948 0.920 0.907 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 1.002 0.047 -1.668 9.566 0.049 0.055 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.412 -0.147 0.209 110 158 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.36 1.00 1.09 1.45 30.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.055 -0.059 -0.015 0.075 0.017 0.058 -0.054 0.020 0.054 0.002 PACF 0.055 -0.062 -0.008 0.073 0.008 0.065 -0.059 0.030 0.045 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 1.002 0.047 -1.668 9.566 0.049 0.055 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.055 -0.059 -0.015 0.075 0.017 0.058 -0.054 0.020 0.054 0.002 PACF 0.055 -0.062 -0.008 0.073 0.008 0.065 -0.059 0.030 0.045 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES