RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID007W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID007W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 684 1 Cascade,Radar-St.,Payett WIDTH_RING PCEN - 684 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2140 4426-11605 1716 1983 684 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 684042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.019 0.371 0.905 3.592 0.203 0.730 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.866 0.338 0.705 2.827 0.222 0.729 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.085 0.382 1.122 4.323 0.174 0.770 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.898 0.236 0.530 2.936 0.178 0.626 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.889 0.446 1.833 6.662 0.220 0.691 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.998 0.455 1.067 3.888 0.223 0.767 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.216 0.525 1.528 5.527 0.192 0.761 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.163 0.554 1.585 6.156 0.198 0.819 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.970 0.581 1.793 5.698 0.200 0.849 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.015 0.441 1.150 4.830 0.195 0.771 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.538 0.580 1.455 6.250 0.182 0.742 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.439 0.598 1.098 4.256 0.196 0.804 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.888 0.359 1.961 8.342 0.174 0.790 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.917 0.335 1.427 7.163 0.178 0.715 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.037 0.651 1.922 5.876 0.174 0.906 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.105 0.498 2.006 7.433 0.167 0.865 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.937 0.306 1.064 5.284 0.197 0.573 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.876 0.236 0.414 3.177 0.207 0.557 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.043 0.464 2.062 7.647 0.190 0.768 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.023 0.246 0.725 3.746 0.179 0.523 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.044 0.497 2.119 9.187 0.177 0.799 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.214 0.446 1.977 8.337 0.195 0.633 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.230 0.498 1.321 5.197 0.191 0.762 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.224 0.503 1.745 6.428 0.203 0.777 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1716 TO 1983 268 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.068 0.439 1.396 5.615 0.192 0.739 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.174 0.118 0.516 1.816 0.016 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.030 0.450 1.441 5.613 0.194 0.765 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.262 0.165 0.812 2.840 0.023 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.866 0.236 0.414 2.827 0.167 0.523 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.927 0.348 1.066 4.072 0.178 0.703 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.189 0.514 1.877 6.912 0.202 0.794 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.538 0.651 2.119 9.187 0.223 0.906 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.586 0.196 0.012 -0.798 3.250 -0.027 0.909 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.027 SERIES 684022 AND 684061 218 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.909 SERIES 684081 AND 684101 256 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.502 0.472 0.483 0.517 0.584 0.498 0.464 0.606 SDEV 0.219 0.198 0.147 0.159 0.184 0.258 0.236 0.210 SERR 0.017 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.016 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.958 0.956 0.957 0.962 0.971 0.960 0.954 0.974 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 1.117 0.483 1.805 6.059 0.152 0.845 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.712 0.233 0.028 143 125 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 1.00 1.01 1.18 2.18 9.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 12. 218. 246. 259. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.842 0.820 0.796 0.786 0.780 0.763 0.723 0.713 0.691 0.680 PACF 0.842 0.381 0.191 0.157 0.132 0.057 -0.079 0.017 -0.012 0.013 95% C.L. 0.122 0.190 0.237 0.274 0.306 0.334 0.359 0.380 0.400 0.417 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.822 0.301 0.197 0.102 0.113 0.145 0.106 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 1 1.04179180 0.03564512 0.00000000 0.91035372 2 684012 1 1.09126401 0.05338445 0.00000000 0.78689075 3 684021 1 1.31408346 0.03925461 0.00000000 0.95359451 4 684022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00152190 0.73160869 5 684031 1 1.46886790 0.02533290 0.00000000 0.66076165 6 684032 1 1.19427049 0.01987056 0.00000000 0.75688046 7 684041 1 1.75142550 0.01685901 0.00000000 0.81053734 8 684042 1 1.85513651 0.02245702 0.00000000 0.85005295 9 684051 1 2.32542086 0.03201268 0.00000000 0.68487430 10 684052 1 1.29347849 0.01424307 0.00000000 0.67579228 11 684061 1 1.55832076 0.01308934 0.00000000 1.02873933 12 684062 1 1.60712147 0.01917947 0.00000000 1.09270930 13 684071 1 1.38290346 0.03073790 0.00000000 0.71039248 14 684072 1 0.94850987 0.01104239 0.00000000 0.59443665 15 684081 1 2.53329873 0.02458978 0.00000000 0.65614396 16 684082 1 1.93506575 0.02883108 0.00000000 0.85529000 17 684091 1 0.50516415 0.02867694 0.00000000 0.86783856 18 684092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041358 0.82719070 19 684101 1 1.99278164 0.03761208 0.00000000 0.83942366 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111203 0.89609319 21 684111 1 1.97900295 0.02916943 0.00000000 0.78529310 22 684112 1 1.35261571 0.02822898 0.00000000 1.02486253 23 684121 1 1.57265496 0.02745501 0.00000000 1.01235414 24 684122 1 2.13020134 0.04027495 0.00000000 1.03036880 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.999 0.308 0.837 3.933 0.202 0.626 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.999 0.338 0.608 2.934 0.221 0.661 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.261 0.423 2.667 0.173 0.641 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.238 0.378 2.973 0.178 0.550 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.299 0.664 3.202 0.219 0.500 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.999 0.353 0.816 3.552 0.222 0.707 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.220 0.300 3.207 0.192 0.391 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.275 0.015 2.702 0.198 0.626 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.001 0.326 0.557 3.506 0.199 0.671 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.293 0.585 3.386 0.194 0.634 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.257 0.525 3.073 0.181 0.576 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.308 0.512 2.856 0.196 0.703 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.217 0.344 3.288 0.173 0.473 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.239 0.208 3.123 0.177 0.512 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.001 0.263 0.533 3.311 0.174 0.623 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.223 0.107 2.798 0.166 0.542 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.302 0.744 3.802 0.196 0.559 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.270 0.519 3.582 0.206 0.548 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.227 0.432 2.995 0.189 0.438 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.231 0.669 3.538 0.179 0.484 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.230 0.461 3.176 0.176 0.554 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.248 0.810 4.394 0.194 0.439 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.291 0.692 3.637 0.190 0.638 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.246 0.192 2.725 0.202 0.479 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.269 0.497 3.265 0.192 0.566 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.040 0.223 0.426 0.016 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.262 0.522 3.204 0.193 0.556 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.066 0.306 0.592 0.023 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.999 0.217 0.015 2.667 0.166 0.391 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.234 0.361 2.953 0.177 0.492 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.300 0.667 3.545 0.201 0.636 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.001 0.353 0.837 4.394 0.222 0.707 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 684012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 684021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 684022 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 684031 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 684032 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 684041 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 684042 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 684051 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 684052 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 684061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 684062 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 684071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 684072 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 684081 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 684082 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 684091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 684092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 684101 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 684111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 684112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 684121 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 684122 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.997 0.247 0.451 3.068 0.202 0.460 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.997 0.284 0.627 3.265 0.222 0.513 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.998 0.207 0.087 3.057 0.173 0.445 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.999 0.234 0.432 3.002 0.178 0.532 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.998 0.255 0.501 3.756 0.219 0.329 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.993 0.254 0.351 2.983 0.222 0.416 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.217 0.248 3.180 0.192 0.372 8 684042 1725 1983 259 0.998 0.259 -0.092 2.713 0.198 0.568 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.991 0.254 0.130 3.257 0.199 0.483 10 684052 1725 1983 259 0.995 0.258 0.494 3.482 0.194 0.526 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.998 0.245 0.557 3.208 0.181 0.533 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.996 0.285 0.435 2.929 0.196 0.658 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.214 0.401 3.560 0.173 0.451 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.998 0.225 0.289 3.514 0.177 0.446 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.998 0.211 -0.026 2.897 0.174 0.396 16 684082 1719 1983 265 0.999 0.203 -0.114 2.788 0.166 0.441 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.997 0.284 1.215 6.352 0.196 0.479 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.997 0.234 0.288 3.475 0.206 0.411 19 684101 1728 1983 256 0.999 0.212 0.285 2.783 0.190 0.359 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.212 0.623 3.801 0.179 0.410 21 684111 1726 1983 258 0.999 0.216 0.364 3.027 0.176 0.492 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.246 0.851 4.526 0.194 0.427 23 684121 1725 1983 259 0.994 0.254 0.660 3.707 0.190 0.519 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.998 0.224 0.217 2.881 0.202 0.360 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 0.997 0.239 0.386 3.384 0.192 0.459 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.002 0.025 0.298 0.758 0.016 0.076 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.998 0.239 0.383 3.194 0.193 0.448 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.002 0.040 0.296 0.581 0.023 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.991 0.203 -0.114 2.713 0.166 0.329 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.997 0.215 0.233 2.956 0.177 0.410 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.999 0.255 0.529 3.537 0.201 0.516 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.285 1.215 6.352 0.222 0.658 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.471 0.111 0.007 -0.159 3.572 0.085 0.810 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.085 SERIES 684051 AND 684121 251 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.810 SERIES 684011 AND 684012 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.447 0.398 0.422 0.565 0.599 0.527 0.509 0.573 SDEV 0.170 0.190 0.148 0.132 0.164 0.228 0.218 0.183 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.949 0.941 0.946 0.969 0.973 0.964 0.961 0.970 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.988 0.168 0.188 2.848 0.152 0.342 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.279 0.082 0.088 103 165 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.44 1.00 1.09 1.53 4.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.341 0.167 0.147 0.156 0.140 0.127 -0.020 0.057 0.056 0.016 PACF 0.341 0.058 0.083 0.086 0.056 0.048 -0.119 0.070 0.003 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.122 0.136 0.139 0.141 0.143 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.119 0.341 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.339 0.150 0.146 0.163 0.149 0.157 0.019 0.064 0.069 0.017 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.339 2 0.325 0.040 3 0.321 0.010 0.095 4 0.312 0.009 0.064 0.095 5 0.306 0.005 0.064 0.075 0.063 6 0.301 -0.001 0.059 0.074 0.039 0.079 7 0.309 0.002 0.066 0.080 0.039 0.107 -0.094 8 0.314 -0.003 0.064 0.076 0.035 0.107 -0.110 0.053 9 0.313 -0.003 0.063 0.076 0.035 0.107 -0.110 0.051 0.006 10 0.313 -0.001 0.058 0.080 0.036 0.110 -0.107 0.051 0.019 -0.040 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2214.69 2184.06 2185.62 2185.22 2184.81 2185.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2186.06 2185.70 2186.95 2188.94 2190.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.339 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.95 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.339 0.115 0.039 0.013 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 684011 1 0.221 0.465 2 684012 1 0.267 0.516 3 684021 1 0.205 0.446 4 684022 1 0.288 0.534 5 684031 1 0.136 0.331 6 684032 1 0.207 0.419 7 684041 1 0.165 0.373 8 684042 1 0.339 0.569 9 684051 1 0.261 0.485 10 684052 1 0.279 0.527 11 684061 1 0.285 0.534 12 684062 1 0.445 0.659 13 684071 1 0.231 0.451 14 684072 1 0.208 0.447 15 684081 1 0.180 0.401 16 684082 1 0.208 0.446 17 684091 1 0.238 0.487 18 684092 1 0.171 0.411 19 684101 1 0.133 0.359 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 684102 1 0.172 0.410 21 684111 1 0.264 0.493 22 684112 1 0.183 0.427 23 684121 1 0.282 0.520 24 684122 1 0.130 0.360 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.229 0.461 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.072 0.076 MEDIAN 1 0.215 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.097 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.130 0.331 LOWER HINGE 1 0.176 0.411 UPPER HINGE 1 0.273 0.518 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.445 0.659 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.219 0.331 3.409 0.246 -0.038 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.243 0.479 3.684 0.269 -0.004 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.185 0.252 2.959 0.211 -0.039 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.197 0.294 2.951 0.221 -0.035 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.241 0.259 4.123 0.257 -0.054 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.231 0.007 3.248 0.274 -0.080 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.201 -0.019 3.191 0.230 -0.064 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.213 0.116 3.482 0.251 -0.086 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.222 0.396 3.869 0.244 -0.087 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.220 0.310 3.767 0.240 -0.024 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.207 0.511 4.541 0.230 0.003 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.214 0.259 3.697 0.254 -0.091 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.191 0.419 3.729 0.214 -0.084 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.201 0.610 4.941 0.216 -0.045 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.193 -0.188 3.519 0.212 -0.065 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.181 -0.053 2.748 0.204 -0.052 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.248 1.929 12.467 0.241 -0.029 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.214 0.101 3.332 0.242 -0.020 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.198 0.148 2.806 0.216 0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.193 0.390 3.690 0.208 0.028 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.188 0.155 2.988 0.221 -0.083 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.223 0.887 4.989 0.233 -0.005 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.217 0.461 3.241 0.238 -0.064 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.209 0.098 3.007 0.235 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.210 0.340 3.932 0.234 -0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.018 0.412 1.916 0.019 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.211 0.276 3.500 0.234 -0.042 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.026 0.331 0.720 0.029 0.060 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.181 -0.188 2.748 0.204 -0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.195 0.109 3.099 0.216 -0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.221 0.440 3.818 0.245 -0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.248 1.929 12.467 0.274 0.028 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.550 0.082 0.005 0.046 3.431 0.311 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.311 SERIES 684051 AND 684091 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 684011 AND 684012 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.539 0.482 0.545 0.643 0.615 0.572 0.606 0.594 SDEV 0.126 0.138 0.107 0.098 0.141 0.164 0.137 0.120 SERR 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.010 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.964 0.957 0.966 0.977 0.975 0.970 0.974 0.972 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.993 0.158 -0.010 2.941 0.187 -0.145 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.280 0.080 0.056 102 166 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.47 1.00 1.09 1.56 16.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.144 -0.022 0.029 0.065 0.036 0.099 -0.120 0.060 0.034 -0.006 PACF -0.144 -0.044 0.020 0.073 0.060 0.121 -0.091 0.028 0.027 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.122 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 -0.144 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.039 0.037 0.077 0.062 0.091 -0.101 0.050 0.044 -0.004 PACF -0.006 -0.040 0.036 0.076 0.066 0.098 -0.101 0.046 0.020 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.993 0.165 0.192 2.824 0.151 0.330 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.328 0.098 0.098 0.127 0.118 0.097 -0.038 0.044 0.051 0.007 PACF 0.328 -0.011 0.077 0.082 0.054 0.039 -0.107 0.079 -0.004 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.122 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.139 0.140 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.108 0.328 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES