RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ID007X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ID007X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 684 1 Cascade,Radar-St.,Payett DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 684 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2140 4426-11605 1716 1983 684 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 684042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 0.790 0.064 -1.097 5.236 0.067 0.446 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.733 0.068 -1.235 6.665 0.071 0.530 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.708 0.075 -0.365 2.325 0.083 0.512 4 684022 1766 1983 218 0.673 0.063 -0.510 3.562 0.087 0.322 5 684031 1734 1983 250 0.717 0.065 -0.778 4.527 0.082 0.333 6 684032 1739 1983 245 0.738 0.082 -1.058 5.136 0.076 0.647 7 684041 1734 1983 250 0.735 0.069 -0.614 3.444 0.082 0.309 8 684042 1725 1983 259 0.730 0.069 -0.623 3.683 0.086 0.349 9 684051 1733 1983 251 0.740 0.061 -0.420 4.079 0.068 0.480 10 684052 1725 1983 259 0.747 0.061 -0.484 3.140 0.059 0.571 11 684061 1765 1983 219 0.712 0.053 -0.472 3.131 0.054 0.566 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.615 0.081 -0.620 3.503 0.075 0.728 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.699 0.110 -0.458 2.155 0.062 0.876 14 684072 1736 1983 248 0.790 0.053 -0.653 3.591 0.059 0.356 15 684081 1717 1983 267 0.671 0.065 -0.036 3.375 0.065 0.595 16 684082 1719 1983 265 0.715 0.068 -0.398 2.835 0.067 0.616 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.734 0.073 -0.575 3.431 0.079 0.515 18 684092 1751 1983 233 0.763 0.054 -0.718 4.212 0.060 0.360 19 684101 1728 1983 256 0.744 0.064 -0.698 3.778 0.082 0.281 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.744 0.070 -0.239 2.939 0.080 0.395 21 684111 1726 1983 258 0.756 0.085 0.044 2.478 0.067 0.706 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.748 0.073 -0.583 2.988 0.068 0.620 23 684121 1725 1983 259 0.682 0.074 -0.585 3.370 0.086 0.465 24 684122 1716 1983 268 0.691 0.069 -0.666 3.493 0.088 0.392 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1716 TO 1983 268 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 0.724 0.070 -0.577 3.628 0.073 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.039 0.012 0.292 0.998 0.010 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.733 0.069 -0.584 3.468 0.073 0.496 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.042 0.010 0.243 0.869 0.016 0.248 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.615 0.053 -1.235 2.155 0.054 0.281 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.703 0.064 -0.682 3.060 0.066 0.358 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 0.746 0.073 -0.439 3.929 0.082 0.606 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 0.790 0.110 0.044 6.665 0.088 0.876 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.291 0.177 0.011 -0.232 2.984 -0.260 0.780 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.260 SERIES 684021 AND 684062 237 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.780 SERIES 684021 AND 684022 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.255 0.395 0.400 0.297 0.409 0.432 0.335 0.308 SDEV 0.214 0.277 0.235 0.219 0.205 0.192 0.237 0.215 SERR 0.016 0.017 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.887 0.940 0.941 0.910 0.943 0.948 0.924 0.915 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 0.730 0.041 -0.873 4.313 0.052 0.297 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.320 -0.122 0.158 78 190 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.35 1.01 1.06 1.41 10.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 12. 218. 246. 259. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.217 0.273 0.291 0.227 0.298 0.220 0.240 0.270 0.223 PACF 0.296 0.142 0.197 0.176 0.077 0.169 0.031 0.083 0.100 0.026 95% C.L. 0.122 0.132 0.138 0.145 0.154 0.159 0.167 0.171 0.176 0.182 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.178 0.187 0.076 0.160 0.184 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 1 0.06263232 0.01780824 0.00000000 0.77680314 2 684012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021220 0.76008415 3 684021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025499 0.67619854 4 684022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026705 0.64410645 5 684031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005202 0.71047133 6 684032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022542 0.70998764 7 684041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022505 0.76364434 8 684042 1 0.11395497 0.02894133 0.00000000 0.71456683 9 684051 1 0.04795279 0.01953862 0.00000000 0.73015052 10 684052 1 0.13946930 0.00680118 0.00000000 0.68187398 11 684061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036334 0.75202215 12 684062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060042 0.68647146 13 684071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00119334 0.84844434 14 684072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007884 0.77978128 15 684081 1 0.16500746 0.02451085 0.00000000 0.64602989 16 684082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046001 0.77589792 17 684091 1 0.10261229 0.01317652 0.00000000 0.70380473 18 684092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000791 0.76392996 19 684101 1 0.08876155 0.01352472 0.00000000 0.71912408 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 1 0.02529901 0.02245947 0.00000000 0.73957402 21 684111 1 0.22440523 0.00717812 0.00000000 0.65399402 22 684112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042425 0.80090296 23 684121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046616 0.74264705 24 684122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013818 0.67245930 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.079 -1.032 5.280 0.067 0.413 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.091 -0.969 5.962 0.071 0.512 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.104 -0.281 2.330 0.083 0.488 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.091 -0.435 3.655 0.086 0.275 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.091 -0.786 4.594 0.082 0.330 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.110 -0.944 5.183 0.075 0.635 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.092 -0.555 3.688 0.081 0.266 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.088 -0.808 4.128 0.085 0.250 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.081 -0.425 3.983 0.068 0.458 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.070 -0.652 3.575 0.059 0.400 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.066 -0.634 3.220 0.054 0.448 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.114 -0.662 3.283 0.075 0.626 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.110 0.700 5.534 0.062 0.712 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.067 -0.604 3.526 0.059 0.349 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.079 -0.603 4.102 0.065 0.404 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.082 -0.594 3.329 0.066 0.469 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.093 -0.398 3.629 0.079 0.450 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.070 -0.728 4.222 0.060 0.358 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.081 -0.726 4.167 0.082 0.179 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.093 -0.224 3.114 0.080 0.386 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.088 -0.529 2.991 0.067 0.483 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.089 -0.505 3.195 0.068 0.531 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.096 -0.635 3.410 0.086 0.305 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.099 -0.695 3.512 0.088 0.374 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.089 -0.572 3.901 0.073 0.421 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.013 0.336 0.875 0.010 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.090 -0.619 3.642 0.073 0.408 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.014 0.257 0.889 0.016 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.066 -1.032 2.330 0.054 0.179 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.080 -0.727 3.306 0.066 0.340 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.094 -0.470 4.195 0.082 0.486 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.114 0.700 5.962 0.088 0.712 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 684011 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 684012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 684021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 684022 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 684031 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 684032 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 684041 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 684042 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 684051 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 684052 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 684061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 684062 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 684071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 684072 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 684081 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 684082 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 684091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 684092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 684101 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 684102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 684111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 684112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 684121 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 684122 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.072 -1.170 6.085 0.067 0.278 2 684012 1733 1983 251 0.999 0.082 -0.777 5.248 0.071 0.405 3 684021 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.080 -0.222 2.850 0.083 0.136 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.084 -0.582 3.753 0.086 0.160 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.089 -0.827 4.567 0.082 0.302 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.107 -0.832 5.254 0.075 0.615 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.087 -0.676 4.068 0.081 0.196 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.086 -0.851 4.172 0.085 0.197 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.077 -0.390 4.013 0.068 0.388 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.068 -0.634 3.574 0.059 0.365 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.061 -0.678 3.792 0.054 0.343 12 684062 1747 1983 237 0.999 0.097 -0.499 3.497 0.075 0.482 13 684071 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.086 -0.307 4.072 0.062 0.562 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.063 -0.606 4.014 0.059 0.260 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.078 -0.586 4.077 0.065 0.386 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.079 -0.601 3.577 0.066 0.431 17 684091 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.086 -0.391 3.604 0.079 0.357 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.065 -0.847 4.192 0.060 0.243 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.080 -0.814 4.257 0.082 0.144 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.083 -0.552 3.590 0.080 0.232 21 684111 1726 1983 258 0.999 0.076 -0.706 3.325 0.067 0.299 22 684112 1735 1983 249 0.999 0.078 -0.593 3.488 0.068 0.387 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.090 -0.717 3.590 0.086 0.220 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.095 -0.730 3.666 0.088 0.315 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.081 -0.649 4.014 0.073 0.321 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.011 0.204 0.701 0.010 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.081 -0.655 3.903 0.073 0.309 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.010 0.229 0.599 0.016 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 218 0.999 0.061 -1.170 2.850 0.054 0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.999 0.076 -0.795 3.583 0.066 0.226 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.087 -0.567 4.182 0.082 0.388 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.107 -0.222 6.085 0.088 0.615 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.330 0.142 0.009 -0.263 3.260 -0.137 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.137 SERIES 684012 AND 684071 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 684021 AND 684022 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.288 0.404 0.412 0.322 0.416 0.450 0.349 0.329 SDEV 0.221 0.248 0.225 0.208 0.201 0.173 0.217 0.199 SERR 0.017 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.902 0.942 0.944 0.919 0.945 0.951 0.928 0.922 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 1.002 0.050 -1.109 5.534 0.052 0.078 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.396 -0.139 0.202 96 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.34 1.00 1.07 1.41 4.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.077 -0.026 0.037 0.084 0.017 0.093 -0.013 0.012 0.070 0.015 PACF 0.077 -0.032 0.041 0.077 0.006 0.096 -0.033 0.015 0.060 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.044 -0.033 0.039 0.081 -0.005 0.106 0.008 0.030 0.067 -0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.044 2 0.046 -0.035 3 0.047 -0.037 0.043 4 0.044 -0.034 0.039 0.076 5 0.045 -0.034 0.039 0.077 -0.010 6 0.046 -0.042 0.034 0.081 -0.015 0.112 7 0.047 -0.042 0.035 0.081 -0.015 0.112 -0.009 8 0.047 -0.046 0.035 0.078 -0.016 0.113 -0.010 0.033 9 0.045 -0.046 0.029 0.079 -0.021 0.111 -0.007 0.031 0.059 10 0.046 -0.045 0.029 0.082 -0.021 0.113 -0.007 0.030 0.060 -0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1557.87 1559.35 1561.02 1562.54 1562.97 1564.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1563.59 1565.57 1567.27 1568.34 1570.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 684011 0 0.077 2 684012 0 0.169 3 684021 0 0.019 4 684022 0 0.026 5 684031 0 0.092 6 684032 0 0.379 7 684041 0 0.039 8 684042 0 0.039 9 684051 0 0.151 10 684052 0 0.134 11 684061 0 0.118 12 684062 0 0.234 13 684071 0 0.330 14 684072 0 0.067 15 684081 0 0.150 16 684082 0 0.187 17 684091 0 0.128 18 684092 0 0.059 19 684101 0 0.021 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 684102 0 0.055 21 684111 0 0.093 22 684112 0 0.150 23 684121 0 0.049 24 684122 0 0.100 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.119 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 MEDIAN 0 0.097 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.019 LOWER HINGE 0 0.052 UPPER HINGE 0 0.151 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.379 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 684011 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.072 -1.170 6.085 0.067 0.278 2 684012 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.082 -0.777 5.248 0.071 0.405 3 684021 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.080 -0.222 2.850 0.083 0.136 4 684022 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.084 -0.582 3.753 0.086 0.160 5 684031 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.089 -0.827 4.567 0.082 0.302 6 684032 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.107 -0.832 5.254 0.075 0.615 7 684041 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.087 -0.676 4.068 0.081 0.196 8 684042 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.086 -0.851 4.172 0.085 0.197 9 684051 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.077 -0.390 4.013 0.068 0.388 10 684052 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.068 -0.634 3.574 0.059 0.365 11 684061 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.061 -0.678 3.792 0.054 0.343 12 684062 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.097 -0.499 3.497 0.075 0.482 13 684071 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.086 -0.307 4.072 0.062 0.562 14 684072 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.063 -0.606 4.014 0.059 0.260 15 684081 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.078 -0.586 4.077 0.065 0.386 16 684082 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.079 -0.601 3.577 0.066 0.431 17 684091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.086 -0.391 3.604 0.079 0.357 18 684092 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.065 -0.847 4.192 0.060 0.243 19 684101 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.080 -0.814 4.257 0.081 0.144 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 684102 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.083 -0.552 3.590 0.080 0.232 21 684111 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.076 -0.706 3.325 0.067 0.299 22 684112 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.078 -0.593 3.488 0.068 0.387 23 684121 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.090 -0.717 3.590 0.086 0.220 24 684122 1716 1983 268 1.000 0.095 -0.730 3.666 0.088 0.315 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 249 1.000 0.081 -0.649 4.014 0.073 0.321 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.011 0.204 0.701 0.010 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.081 -0.655 3.903 0.073 0.309 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.010 0.229 0.599 0.016 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 218 1.000 0.061 -1.170 2.850 0.054 0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.076 -0.795 3.583 0.066 0.226 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.087 -0.567 4.182 0.082 0.388 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.107 -0.222 6.085 0.088 0.615 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.330 0.142 0.009 -0.263 3.260 -0.137 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.137 SERIES 684012 AND 684071 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 684021 AND 684022 218 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 90.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.288 0.404 0.412 0.322 0.416 0.450 0.349 0.329 SDEV 0.221 0.248 0.225 0.208 0.201 0.173 0.217 0.199 SERR 0.017 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.902 0.942 0.944 0.919 0.945 0.951 0.928 0.922 NSS 22.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 1.002 0.050 -1.108 5.529 0.052 0.078 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.397 -0.139 0.202 95 173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.33 1.00 1.08 1.41 4.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.078 -0.026 0.036 0.084 0.016 0.093 -0.013 0.012 0.070 0.015 PACF 0.078 -0.032 0.041 0.077 0.006 0.096 -0.033 0.015 0.060 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1983 268 1.002 0.050 -1.108 5.529 0.052 0.078 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.078 -0.026 0.036 0.084 0.016 0.093 -0.013 0.012 0.070 0.015 PACF 0.078 -0.032 0.041 0.077 0.006 0.096 -0.033 0.015 0.060 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES