RUN: ITAL002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ITAL014N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ITAL014N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 626 1 Blumone, Malga DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 626 2 Italy Norway spruce 1650 4553-1025 1840 1980 - 626 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 626031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 626032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1894 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 626041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1859 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 626051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1925 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 626052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 626062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 626082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1907 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 626101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1919 1920 / 1924 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 626102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1900 1900 / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 626111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 626121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1862 1866 / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 626142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 0.254 0.017 0.590 5.609 0.049 0.392 2 626032 1843 1980 138 0.264 0.031 2.499 12.283 0.053 0.691 3 626041 1846 1980 135 0.246 0.025 -0.072 2.472 0.064 0.671 4 626042 1842 1980 139 0.274 0.026 -0.352 2.987 0.059 0.699 5 626051 1854 1980 127 0.309 0.048 6.381 53.975 0.056 0.436 6 626052 1856 1980 125 0.293 0.026 2.128 11.208 0.064 0.493 7 626061 1887 1980 94 0.251 0.015 -0.507 3.078 0.056 0.274 8 626062 1876 1980 105 0.252 0.031 2.066 7.981 0.054 0.818 9 626071 1879 1980 102 0.284 0.026 -0.066 2.932 0.057 0.687 10 626072 1882 1980 99 0.261 0.023 0.311 2.231 0.054 0.669 11 626081 1881 1980 100 0.252 0.024 0.346 2.476 0.057 0.683 12 626082 1874 1980 107 0.270 0.024 -0.330 3.113 0.060 0.658 13 626091 1858 1980 123 0.282 0.020 1.281 7.293 0.050 0.490 14 626092 1863 1980 118 0.286 0.022 -0.225 2.618 0.056 0.569 15 626101 1871 1980 110 0.239 0.023 0.056 3.307 0.071 0.571 16 626102 1882 1980 99 0.235 0.038 1.760 6.953 0.065 0.798 17 626111 1861 1980 120 0.292 0.021 0.315 3.310 0.067 0.300 18 626112 1853 1980 128 0.289 0.021 0.269 3.219 0.055 0.519 19 626121 1840 1980 141 0.281 0.031 1.100 5.083 0.056 0.742 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 0.268 0.021 0.690 3.906 0.050 0.630 21 626131 1879 1980 102 0.267 0.021 0.054 3.571 0.060 0.570 22 626132 1868 1980 113 0.273 0.043 2.379 9.379 0.066 0.812 23 626141 1865 1980 116 0.288 0.025 1.141 5.043 0.055 0.571 24 626142 1883 1980 98 0.280 0.017 0.047 2.646 0.050 0.433 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1840 TO 1980 141 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 0.270 0.026 0.911 6.945 0.058 0.591 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.019 0.008 1.482 10.418 0.006 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 0.271 0.024 0.330 3.440 0.056 0.601 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.032 0.007 1.530 4.163 0.008 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 93 0.235 0.015 -0.507 2.231 0.049 0.274 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 0.253 0.021 -0.010 2.960 0.054 0.492 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 0.285 0.028 1.521 7.123 0.062 0.689 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 0.309 0.048 6.381 53.975 0.071 0.818 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.272 0.199 0.012 -0.179 2.917 -0.264 0.775 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 626062 AND 626141 105 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.775 SERIES 626072 AND 626081 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.42 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 276. 276. RBAR 0.154 0.332 0.451 SDEV 0.272 0.223 0.145 SERR 0.025 0.013 0.009 EPS 0.807 0.923 0.952 NSS 23.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 0.275 0.022 2.947 16.734 0.040 0.647 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.014 0.006 0.026 24 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 1.83 1.01 1.05 2.88 58.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 117. 26. 94. 102. 128. 141. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.642 0.494 0.461 0.384 0.271 0.219 0.204 0.105 0.050 0.101 PACF 0.642 0.140 0.170 0.015 -0.074 -0.002 0.041 -0.104 -0.028 0.115 95% C.L. 0.168 0.228 0.256 0.279 0.293 0.300 0.305 0.309 0.310 0.310 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.588 0.525 0.290 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 626031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004839 0.25769839 2 626032 1 0.24282192 0.28278670 0.00000000 0.25921994 3 626041 1 0.05704484 0.01749007 0.00000000 0.22481133 4 626042 1 0.04494512 0.01043037 0.00000000 0.25013840 5 626051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063958 0.34885734 6 626052 1 0.16211030 0.21600084 0.00000000 0.28828999 7 626061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008713 0.24735072 8 626062 1 0.16675846 0.15840942 0.00000000 0.24283026 9 626071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029624 0.26895943 10 626072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041163 0.24063079 11 626081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049919 0.22629091 12 626082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006773 0.26406902 13 626091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006017 0.27870852 14 626092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012227 0.27882659 15 626101 1 0.02839537 0.01426954 0.00000000 0.22491051 16 626102 1 0.10368127 0.06048332 0.00000000 0.21929199 17 626111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018107 0.28070772 18 626112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012481 0.28132504 19 626121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006376 0.27769381 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 626122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016426 0.25753966 21 626131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013039 0.27416620 22 626132 1 0.24923676 0.14406314 0.00000000 0.25877520 23 626141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001722 0.28675112 24 626142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007375 0.27572331 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 1.000 0.067 0.512 5.254 0.051 0.405 2 626032 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.076 -0.067 3.119 0.053 0.558 3 626041 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.082 -0.008 3.394 0.062 0.512 4 626042 1842 1980 139 1.000 0.088 -0.006 3.414 0.059 0.645 5 626051 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.121 6.471 56.738 0.055 0.334 6 626052 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.059 0.138 3.366 0.063 0.117 7 626061 1887 1980 94 1.000 0.058 -0.519 3.071 0.056 0.249 8 626062 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.064 -0.467 2.996 0.055 0.483 9 626071 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.087 0.009 2.991 0.056 0.640 10 626072 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.074 0.141 3.047 0.054 0.518 11 626081 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.075 0.154 2.605 0.057 0.502 12 626082 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.094 -0.243 2.918 0.060 0.693 13 626091 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.069 1.468 8.363 0.050 0.478 14 626092 1863 1980 118 1.000 0.074 -0.335 2.699 0.056 0.547 15 626101 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.089 0.077 3.027 0.068 0.524 16 626102 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.122 1.358 6.340 0.066 0.670 17 626111 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.068 0.452 3.220 0.065 0.221 18 626112 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.071 0.408 3.224 0.055 0.488 19 626121 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.110 1.170 5.676 0.054 0.729 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.076 0.743 4.548 0.049 0.593 21 626131 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.078 0.218 3.613 0.059 0.547 22 626132 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.078 0.052 3.187 0.064 0.484 23 626141 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.087 1.178 5.150 0.055 0.565 24 626142 1883 1980 98 1.000 0.060 0.014 2.555 0.049 0.410 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 116 1.000 0.080 0.538 6.021 0.057 0.496 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.017 1.377 10.893 0.005 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.076 0.140 3.222 0.056 0.515 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.019 0.634 1.837 0.007 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.058 -0.519 2.555 0.049 0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.069 -0.007 3.012 0.054 0.444 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.087 0.627 4.849 0.061 0.579 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.122 6.471 56.738 0.068 0.729 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 626031 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 626032 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 626041 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 626042 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 626051 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 626052 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 626061 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 626062 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 626071 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 626072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 626081 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 626082 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 626091 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 626092 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 626101 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 626102 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 626111 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 626112 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 626121 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 626122 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 626131 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 626132 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 626141 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 626142 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 1.000 0.062 0.716 5.633 0.051 0.300 2 626032 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.068 0.177 3.834 0.053 0.444 3 626041 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.077 0.059 3.807 0.063 0.445 4 626042 1842 1980 139 1.000 0.081 0.127 3.633 0.059 0.590 5 626051 1854 1980 127 0.999 0.095 5.766 51.387 0.055 0.224 6 626052 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.057 0.255 3.315 0.063 0.054 7 626061 1887 1980 94 1.000 0.054 -0.550 3.062 0.056 0.158 8 626062 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.055 -0.180 3.173 0.055 0.279 9 626071 1879 1980 102 0.999 0.076 0.089 3.206 0.057 0.525 10 626072 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.067 0.360 3.178 0.054 0.436 11 626081 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.066 0.257 2.876 0.057 0.386 12 626082 1874 1980 107 0.999 0.079 -0.115 2.938 0.060 0.562 13 626091 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.060 1.154 6.798 0.050 0.336 14 626092 1863 1980 118 1.000 0.064 -0.385 3.128 0.056 0.418 15 626101 1871 1980 110 0.999 0.072 0.290 3.440 0.069 0.250 16 626102 1882 1980 99 0.999 0.115 1.614 7.180 0.066 0.633 17 626111 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.061 0.128 2.887 0.065 0.053 18 626112 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.067 0.326 3.429 0.055 0.424 19 626121 1840 1980 141 0.999 0.073 0.564 3.930 0.054 0.519 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.059 0.769 5.587 0.050 0.378 21 626131 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.069 0.404 3.932 0.059 0.429 22 626132 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.068 0.007 3.628 0.064 0.309 23 626141 1865 1980 116 0.999 0.077 1.157 5.306 0.055 0.473 24 626142 1883 1980 98 1.000 0.054 -0.112 2.359 0.049 0.296 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 116 1.000 0.070 0.537 5.902 0.057 0.372 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.014 1.220 9.769 0.005 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.067 0.256 3.534 0.056 0.402 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.016 0.607 1.469 0.007 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.054 -0.550 2.359 0.049 0.053 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.999 0.060 0.033 3.151 0.054 0.287 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.076 0.640 4.619 0.061 0.459 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.115 5.766 51.387 0.069 0.633 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.310 0.129 0.008 -0.067 2.971 -0.070 0.612 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.070 SERIES 626031 AND 626141 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.612 SERIES 626072 AND 626081 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.42 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 276. 276. RBAR 0.181 0.380 0.439 SDEV 0.190 0.163 0.140 SERR 0.017 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.836 0.936 0.950 NSS 23.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.048 0.374 4.481 0.040 0.404 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.129 -0.046 0.098 41 100 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.68 1.00 1.08 1.77 15.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.401 0.320 0.288 0.245 0.072 0.058 0.098 -0.031 -0.112 0.025 PACF 0.401 0.190 0.133 0.073 -0.131 -0.027 0.070 -0.103 -0.112 0.121 95% C.L. 0.168 0.194 0.208 0.219 0.227 0.227 0.228 0.229 0.229 0.231 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.235 0.296 0.179 0.134 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.450 0.484 0.387 0.263 0.095 0.083 0.044 -0.018 -0.088 0.014 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.450 2 0.291 0.353 3 0.247 0.316 0.125 4 0.255 0.335 0.140 -0.060 5 0.242 0.364 0.210 -0.008 -0.207 6 0.236 0.364 0.216 0.004 -0.200 -0.031 7 0.238 0.377 0.216 -0.010 -0.223 -0.046 0.064 8 0.238 0.377 0.217 -0.010 -0.224 -0.047 0.063 0.004 9 0.238 0.384 0.211 -0.035 -0.225 -0.023 0.105 0.030 -0.112 10 0.248 0.381 0.202 -0.033 -0.205 -0.020 0.086 -0.004 -0.133 0.089 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 647.64 617.74 601.03 600.80 602.29 598.10 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 599.97 601.40 603.40 603.63 604.50 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.247 0.316 0.125 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 31.25 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 145.46 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.247 0.377 0.297 0.223 0.196 0.156 0.129 0.106 0.086 0.0708 0.058 0.048 0.039 0.032 0.026 0.021 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.0097 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0013 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 626031 3 0.180 0.181 0.180 0.217 2 626032 3 0.251 0.397 -0.022 0.226 3 626041 3 0.243 0.338 0.224 0.022 4 626042 3 0.388 0.462 0.234 -0.019 5 626051 3 0.120 0.360 -0.112 0.070 6 626052 3 0.039 0.030 0.124 0.132 7 626061 3 0.054 0.163 -0.039 0.158 8 626062 3 0.111 0.244 0.183 -0.048 9 626071 3 0.318 0.400 0.129 0.142 10 626072 3 0.289 0.273 0.197 0.200 11 626081 3 0.155 0.368 0.073 -0.044 12 626082 3 0.374 0.390 0.269 0.041 13 626091 3 0.136 0.320 0.070 -0.033 14 626092 3 0.273 0.277 0.345 -0.006 15 626101 3 0.133 0.209 0.049 0.226 16 626102 3 0.486 0.473 0.206 0.056 17 626111 3 0.030 0.055 0.098 -0.071 18 626112 3 0.233 0.369 0.209 -0.082 19 626121 3 0.338 0.407 0.240 0.011 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 626122 3 0.171 0.360 0.071 -0.038 21 626131 3 0.328 0.225 0.379 0.082 22 626132 3 0.126 0.261 0.128 0.039 23 626141 3 0.247 0.440 0.068 0.028 24 626142 3 0.167 0.256 0.117 0.049 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.216 0.302 0.142 0.057 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.118 0.116 0.097 MEDIAN 3 0.206 0.329 0.129 0.040 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.174 0.159 0.146 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.030 0.030 -0.112 -0.082 LOWER HINGE 3 0.129 0.234 0.070 -0.026 UPPER HINGE 3 0.304 0.393 0.216 0.137 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.486 0.473 0.379 0.226 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 1.000 0.056 1.116 7.773 0.056 0.005 2 626032 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.059 0.499 4.329 0.064 -0.023 3 626041 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.067 -0.335 3.710 0.073 0.000 4 626042 1842 1980 139 1.000 0.064 0.185 3.546 0.072 0.002 5 626051 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.085 5.390 46.562 0.067 -0.106 6 626052 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.056 0.284 3.270 0.064 -0.006 7 626061 1887 1980 94 1.000 0.053 -0.561 2.979 0.060 0.009 8 626062 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.052 -0.193 2.878 0.061 -0.001 9 626071 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.062 0.756 4.308 0.067 0.004 10 626072 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.057 -0.373 4.819 0.064 0.014 11 626081 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.061 0.217 3.042 0.069 0.002 12 626082 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.062 0.004 3.107 0.070 0.000 13 626091 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.056 1.319 7.924 0.060 -0.006 14 626092 1863 1980 118 1.000 0.055 -0.054 3.003 0.063 0.001 15 626101 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.067 0.082 3.060 0.076 0.014 16 626102 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.086 2.466 15.835 0.084 0.015 17 626111 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.061 0.170 2.720 0.069 -0.008 18 626112 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.059 0.056 3.154 0.066 0.003 19 626121 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.059 -0.024 3.026 0.068 -0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.055 0.863 6.197 0.059 0.005 21 626131 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.057 0.481 3.832 0.066 0.008 22 626132 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.064 -0.034 3.563 0.073 0.004 23 626141 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.067 1.661 8.624 0.069 -0.005 24 626142 1883 1980 98 1.000 0.051 0.117 2.749 0.057 0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 116 1.000 0.061 0.587 6.417 0.067 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.009 1.237 9.041 0.006 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.059 0.177 3.555 0.067 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.008 0.838 2.474 0.008 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.051 -0.561 2.720 0.056 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.056 -0.029 3.034 0.062 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.064 0.809 5.508 0.070 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.086 5.390 46.562 0.084 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.272 0.105 0.006 -0.096 3.172 -0.092 0.584 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.092 SERIES 626031 AND 626141 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.584 SERIES 626031 AND 626032 130 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.42 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 276. 276. RBAR 0.218 0.322 0.332 SDEV 0.147 0.133 0.122 SERR 0.013 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.865 0.919 0.923 NSS 23.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 0.998 0.038 0.133 3.552 0.045 -0.062 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.103 -0.039 0.086 40 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 1.07 1.01 1.05 2.12 23.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.061 0.029 0.059 0.147 -0.072 -0.033 0.101 -0.058 -0.149 0.116 PACF -0.061 0.026 0.062 0.155 -0.057 -0.056 0.082 -0.060 -0.144 0.107 95% C.L. 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.173 0.174 0.174 0.176 0.177 0.180 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 0.000 0.011 0.147 -0.069 -0.029 0.086 -0.063 -0.145 0.109 PACF -0.009 0.000 0.011 0.147 -0.067 -0.031 0.085 -0.085 -0.131 0.121 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.178 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.024 -0.009 0.000 0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 0.999 0.047 0.354 3.785 0.039 0.467 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.464 0.495 0.384 0.369 0.207 0.159 0.154 0.039 -0.042 0.040 PACF 0.464 0.356 0.104 0.088 -0.121 -0.085 0.052 -0.090 -0.121 0.127 95% C.L. 0.168 0.201 0.233 0.251 0.266 0.270 0.273 0.275 0.275 0.276 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.345 0.296 0.379 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES