RUN: ITAL002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: ITAL014X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: ITAL014X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 626 1 Blumone, Malga DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 626 2 Italy Norway spruce 1650 4553-1025 1840 1980 - 626 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 626032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1894 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 626101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1919 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 626102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1900 1900 / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 626111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 626121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 0.770 0.087 -0.952 4.123 0.090 0.502 2 626032 1843 1980 138 0.785 0.069 -0.966 4.950 0.080 0.315 3 626041 1846 1980 135 0.750 0.073 -0.628 4.092 0.078 0.455 4 626042 1842 1980 139 0.823 0.082 -0.483 4.355 0.071 0.586 5 626051 1854 1980 127 0.756 0.098 -0.235 2.222 0.068 0.791 6 626052 1856 1980 125 0.841 0.047 -0.516 4.547 0.055 0.166 7 626061 1887 1980 94 0.813 0.078 -0.501 3.013 0.078 0.489 8 626062 1876 1980 105 0.851 0.070 -1.269 6.927 0.071 0.345 9 626071 1879 1980 102 0.873 0.081 -0.785 3.227 0.049 0.798 10 626072 1882 1980 99 0.871 0.063 -0.317 3.021 0.057 0.488 11 626081 1881 1980 100 0.806 0.057 -0.402 3.074 0.069 0.236 12 626082 1874 1980 107 0.781 0.072 -0.773 3.323 0.084 0.304 13 626091 1858 1980 123 0.797 0.074 -1.008 4.959 0.086 0.193 14 626092 1863 1980 118 0.804 0.072 -0.934 4.341 0.086 0.254 15 626101 1871 1980 110 0.860 0.108 -0.482 2.480 0.070 0.700 16 626102 1882 1980 99 0.853 0.063 -0.800 4.372 0.062 0.394 17 626111 1861 1980 120 0.822 0.081 -0.805 3.981 0.092 0.314 18 626112 1853 1980 128 0.806 0.091 -1.176 4.250 0.109 0.219 19 626121 1840 1980 141 0.898 0.061 -0.566 4.746 0.067 0.124 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 0.859 0.071 -0.714 5.016 0.074 0.369 21 626131 1879 1980 102 0.765 0.068 -0.092 2.978 0.085 0.207 22 626132 1868 1980 113 0.764 0.080 0.038 2.895 0.096 0.274 23 626141 1865 1980 116 0.868 0.055 -0.398 3.152 0.049 0.444 24 626142 1883 1980 98 0.858 0.045 -0.217 3.094 0.051 0.260 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1840 TO 1980 141 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 116 0.820 0.073 -0.624 3.881 0.074 0.384 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.043 0.015 0.337 1.053 0.016 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 0.817 0.072 -0.597 4.036 0.073 0.330 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.076 0.018 0.470 1.412 0.021 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.750 0.045 -1.269 2.222 0.049 0.124 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.783 0.063 -0.870 3.047 0.065 0.245 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 127 0.859 0.081 -0.400 4.459 0.086 0.488 MAXIMUM VALUE 140 0.898 0.108 0.038 6.927 0.109 0.798 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.406 0.165 0.010 -0.489 3.347 -0.129 0.737 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 626051 AND 626131 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.737 SERIES 626092 AND 626112 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.42 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 276. 276. RBAR 0.262 0.381 0.509 SDEV 0.276 0.210 0.168 SERR 0.025 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.891 0.936 0.961 NSS 23.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 0.822 0.047 -1.113 6.179 0.050 0.291 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.421 -0.182 0.221 42 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.27 1.00 1.05 1.32 10.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 117. 26. 94. 102. 128. 141. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.289 0.344 0.276 0.198 0.185 0.069 0.059 -0.003 0.040 -0.025 PACF 0.289 0.284 0.146 0.028 0.034 -0.077 -0.038 -0.056 0.044 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.168 0.182 0.200 0.210 0.215 0.220 0.220 0.221 0.221 0.221 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.185 0.161 0.267 0.148 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 626031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057152 0.80789626 2 626032 1 0.09717641 0.00549277 0.00000000 0.71684194 3 626041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036972 0.77536321 4 626042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015385 0.83386302 5 626051 1 0.52908945 0.00583477 0.00000000 0.38324681 6 626052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014790 0.85003746 7 626061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107720 0.86414552 8 626062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038576 0.87149268 9 626071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013927 0.88021159 10 626072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025838 0.85839415 11 626081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077030 0.84499997 12 626082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035904 0.80022925 13 626091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043428 0.82375449 14 626092 1 0.09845930 0.03286945 0.00000000 0.77961516 15 626101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052591 0.83336920 16 626102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067270 0.88794106 17 626111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083711 0.87141550 18 626112 1 0.14192821 0.02018565 0.00000000 0.75621301 19 626121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010172 0.90497011 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 626122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041184 0.88480210 21 626131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080294 0.72355080 22 626132 1 0.23862991 0.19574657 0.00000000 0.75439250 23 626141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019763 0.85628337 24 626142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012898 0.86424154 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 1.000 0.110 -0.968 3.964 0.089 0.452 2 626032 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.086 -0.934 4.873 0.080 0.257 3 626041 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.097 -0.468 4.127 0.078 0.420 4 626042 1842 1980 139 1.000 0.100 -0.433 4.208 0.071 0.576 5 626051 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.079 -0.081 3.763 0.067 0.406 6 626052 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.056 -0.391 4.576 0.054 0.152 7 626061 1887 1980 94 1.000 0.089 -0.148 2.980 0.077 0.391 8 626062 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.082 -1.036 6.285 0.071 0.320 9 626071 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.093 -0.709 3.149 0.048 0.790 10 626072 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.071 -0.421 3.101 0.056 0.478 11 626081 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.065 -0.248 3.205 0.068 0.067 12 626082 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.091 -0.750 3.244 0.083 0.276 13 626091 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.091 -0.757 4.652 0.085 0.159 14 626092 1863 1980 118 1.000 0.086 -0.702 4.753 0.085 0.157 15 626101 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.124 -0.315 2.425 0.069 0.709 16 626102 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.071 -0.731 3.880 0.061 0.309 17 626111 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.094 -0.349 3.546 0.091 0.218 18 626112 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.105 -1.031 4.443 0.108 0.066 19 626121 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.068 -0.503 4.640 0.067 0.122 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.081 -0.548 4.648 0.074 0.336 21 626131 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.082 -0.323 3.377 0.085 0.098 22 626132 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.097 0.037 3.381 0.095 0.153 23 626141 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.063 -0.301 2.936 0.049 0.437 24 626142 1883 1980 98 1.000 0.052 -0.193 3.091 0.051 0.250 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 116 1.000 0.085 -0.513 3.885 0.073 0.317 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.017 0.305 0.868 0.015 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.086 -0.451 3.822 0.072 0.293 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.024 0.433 1.431 0.021 0.273 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.052 -1.036 2.425 0.048 0.066 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.071 -0.741 3.177 0.064 0.155 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.095 -0.308 4.608 0.085 0.428 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.124 0.037 6.285 0.108 0.790 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 626031 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 626032 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 626041 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 626042 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 626051 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 626052 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 626061 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 626062 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 626071 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 626072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 626081 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 626082 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 626091 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 626092 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 626101 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 626102 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 626111 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 626112 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 626121 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 626122 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 626131 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 626132 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 626141 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 626142 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 0.999 0.096 -1.083 4.766 0.089 0.279 2 626032 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.083 -1.162 5.580 0.080 0.199 3 626041 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.090 -0.499 3.875 0.078 0.309 4 626042 1842 1980 139 1.000 0.085 -0.137 4.118 0.071 0.385 5 626051 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.074 -0.109 3.529 0.067 0.337 6 626052 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.056 -0.398 4.505 0.054 0.140 7 626061 1887 1980 94 1.000 0.078 -0.237 3.158 0.077 0.198 8 626062 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.072 -0.983 6.009 0.071 0.104 9 626071 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.073 -0.453 3.644 0.048 0.607 10 626072 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.060 -0.292 2.862 0.056 0.276 11 626081 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.064 -0.227 3.193 0.068 0.040 12 626082 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.078 -0.520 3.773 0.083 -0.017 13 626091 1858 1980 123 0.999 0.083 -0.565 5.119 0.085 -0.033 14 626092 1863 1980 118 1.000 0.079 -0.848 4.862 0.086 -0.003 15 626101 1871 1980 110 0.999 0.081 -0.736 4.525 0.068 0.317 16 626102 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.062 -0.449 4.525 0.061 0.076 17 626111 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.084 -0.230 3.510 0.091 -0.009 18 626112 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.100 -1.033 4.393 0.108 -0.037 19 626121 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.060 -0.780 5.025 0.067 -0.140 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.071 -0.754 4.816 0.074 0.127 21 626131 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.081 -0.379 3.318 0.085 0.066 22 626132 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.090 -0.185 3.286 0.095 0.026 23 626141 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.054 -0.565 3.746 0.049 0.272 24 626142 1883 1980 98 1.000 0.049 -0.274 3.287 0.051 0.143 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 116 1.000 0.075 -0.538 4.143 0.073 0.153 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.013 0.317 0.839 0.016 0.172 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.078 -0.476 3.997 0.072 0.133 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.020 0.511 1.377 0.021 0.266 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.049 -1.162 2.862 0.048 -0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.063 -0.767 3.414 0.064 0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.083 -0.256 4.791 0.085 0.277 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.100 -0.109 6.009 0.108 0.607 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.441 0.129 0.008 -0.260 2.536 0.059 0.782 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.059 SERIES 626051 AND 626141 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.782 SERIES 626031 AND 626032 130 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.42 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 276. 276. RBAR 0.332 0.442 0.494 SDEV 0.177 0.164 0.174 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.920 0.950 0.959 NSS 23.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.049 -0.979 6.697 0.048 0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.252 -0.083 0.138 40 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.36 1.00 1.04 1.40 10.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.142 0.074 -0.030 0.019 -0.092 -0.047 -0.194 -0.025 -0.088 PACF 0.007 0.142 0.074 -0.051 -0.002 -0.088 -0.045 -0.178 0.000 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.181 0.181 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.027 0.135 0.036 -0.035 0.008 -0.092 -0.037 -0.184 -0.036 -0.072 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.027 2 -0.024 0.134 3 -0.029 0.135 0.044 4 -0.027 0.142 0.042 -0.052 5 -0.027 0.142 0.043 -0.052 -0.005 6 -0.028 0.138 0.046 -0.040 -0.007 -0.084 7 -0.031 0.138 0.045 -0.038 -0.002 -0.085 -0.041 8 -0.038 0.123 0.044 -0.045 0.006 -0.062 -0.046 -0.169 9 -0.043 0.122 0.043 -0.044 0.005 -0.060 -0.042 -0.171 -0.031 10 -0.045 0.116 0.041 -0.046 0.005 -0.062 -0.041 -0.166 -0.033 -0.035 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 727.92 729.82 729.26 730.99 732.61 734.61 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 735.61 737.38 735.27 737.13 738.96 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 626031 0 0.081 2 626032 0 0.040 3 626041 0 0.099 4 626042 0 0.155 5 626051 0 0.114 6 626052 0 0.020 7 626061 0 0.039 8 626062 0 0.011 9 626071 0 0.401 10 626072 0 0.078 11 626081 0 0.002 12 626082 0 0.000 13 626091 0 0.001 14 626092 0 0.000 15 626101 0 0.104 16 626102 0 0.006 17 626111 0 0.000 18 626112 0 0.001 19 626121 0 0.020 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 626122 0 0.016 21 626131 0 0.004 22 626132 0 0.001 23 626141 0 0.075 24 626142 0 0.021 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.054 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.087 MEDIAN 0 0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.078 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.079 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.401 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 626031 1851 1980 130 1.000 0.096 -1.083 4.766 0.089 0.279 2 626032 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.083 -1.162 5.580 0.080 0.199 3 626041 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.090 -0.499 3.875 0.078 0.309 4 626042 1842 1980 139 1.000 0.085 -0.137 4.118 0.071 0.385 5 626051 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.074 -0.109 3.529 0.067 0.337 6 626052 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.056 -0.398 4.505 0.054 0.140 7 626061 1887 1980 94 1.000 0.078 -0.237 3.158 0.077 0.198 8 626062 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.072 -0.983 6.009 0.071 0.104 9 626071 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.073 -0.453 3.644 0.048 0.607 10 626072 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.060 -0.292 2.862 0.056 0.276 11 626081 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.064 -0.227 3.193 0.068 0.040 12 626082 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.078 -0.520 3.773 0.083 -0.017 13 626091 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.083 -0.565 5.119 0.085 -0.033 14 626092 1863 1980 118 1.000 0.079 -0.848 4.862 0.086 -0.003 15 626101 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.081 -0.736 4.525 0.068 0.317 16 626102 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.062 -0.449 4.525 0.061 0.076 17 626111 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.084 -0.230 3.510 0.091 -0.009 18 626112 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.100 -1.033 4.393 0.108 -0.037 19 626121 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.060 -0.780 5.025 0.067 -0.140 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 626122 1858 1980 123 1.000 0.071 -0.754 4.816 0.074 0.127 21 626131 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.081 -0.379 3.318 0.085 0.066 22 626132 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.090 -0.185 3.286 0.095 0.026 23 626141 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.054 -0.565 3.746 0.049 0.272 24 626142 1883 1980 98 1.000 0.049 -0.274 3.287 0.051 0.143 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 116 1.000 0.075 -0.538 4.143 0.073 0.153 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.013 0.317 0.839 0.015 0.172 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.078 -0.476 3.997 0.072 0.133 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.020 0.511 1.377 0.021 0.266 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.049 -1.162 2.862 0.048 -0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.063 -0.767 3.414 0.064 0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.083 -0.256 4.791 0.085 0.277 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.100 -0.109 6.009 0.108 0.607 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.441 0.129 0.008 -0.260 2.536 0.059 0.782 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.059 SERIES 626051 AND 626141 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.782 SERIES 626031 AND 626032 130 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.42 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 276. 276. RBAR 0.332 0.442 0.494 SDEV 0.177 0.164 0.174 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.920 0.950 0.959 NSS 23.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 1.001 0.049 -0.979 6.697 0.048 0.008 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.251 -0.083 0.138 40 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.35 1.00 1.04 1.40 10.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.142 0.075 -0.030 0.019 -0.092 -0.047 -0.194 -0.025 -0.088 PACF 0.007 0.142 0.074 -0.051 -0.002 -0.088 -0.045 -0.177 0.000 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.181 0.181 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1980 141 1.001 0.049 -0.979 6.697 0.048 0.008 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.142 0.075 -0.030 0.019 -0.092 -0.047 -0.194 -0.025 -0.088 PACF 0.007 0.142 0.074 -0.051 -0.002 -0.088 -0.045 -0.177 0.000 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.181 0.181 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES