RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM570E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM570E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 700 1 Sierra Blanca, (Ruidoso) WIDTH_EARLY PSME - 700 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3120 3320-10540 1554 19 700 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 700021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 700052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1713 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 700112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.539 0.293 0.938 3.801 0.343 0.704 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.548 0.295 1.124 4.532 0.369 0.612 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.461 0.424 2.740 10.804 0.326 0.888 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.339 0.194 1.003 3.925 0.337 0.732 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.617 0.324 1.051 3.997 0.347 0.615 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.710 0.387 0.872 3.769 0.356 0.714 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.392 0.279 2.282 10.215 0.344 0.737 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.503 0.247 1.036 4.157 0.303 0.700 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.567 0.280 1.282 5.034 0.278 0.716 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.626 0.442 1.516 5.117 0.247 0.848 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.171 0.318 0.307 2.830 0.200 0.569 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.328 0.347 0.177 2.734 0.208 0.546 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.780 0.612 1.265 6.131 0.235 0.451 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.379 0.370 1.048 7.338 0.225 0.348 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.979 0.838 0.160 2.715 0.235 0.746 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.953 0.809 0.403 2.704 0.244 0.656 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.652 0.457 2.225 9.491 0.295 0.768 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.769 0.548 1.287 3.704 0.289 0.827 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.631 0.322 0.591 2.815 0.346 0.685 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.616 0.289 0.958 3.657 0.339 0.599 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.590 0.427 1.289 3.857 0.382 0.774 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.406 0.167 0.514 3.336 0.378 0.366 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.662 0.352 0.435 2.687 0.325 0.737 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.652 0.368 0.605 2.709 0.324 0.764 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.444 0.188 0.501 3.030 0.354 0.515 26 700132 1715 1983 269 0.801 0.321 0.668 3.783 0.325 0.538 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1554 TO 1983 430 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 269 0.812 0.381 1.011 4.572 0.306 0.660 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.478 0.165 0.641 2.347 0.055 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.629 0.335 0.980 3.792 0.325 0.702 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.262 0.138 0.768 2.204 0.099 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.339 0.167 0.160 2.687 0.200 0.348 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.539 0.289 0.514 2.830 0.247 0.569 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 0.801 0.427 1.282 5.034 0.346 0.746 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.979 0.838 2.740 10.804 0.382 0.888 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.505 0.188 0.010 -0.839 3.771 -0.171 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.171 SERIES 700121 AND 700131 163 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 700091 AND 700092 261 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.349 0.508 0.387 0.558 0.547 0.601 0.672 0.530 0.522 0.604 SDEV 0.150 0.118 0.227 0.222 0.189 0.145 0.142 0.186 0.163 0.165 SERR 0.086 0.068 0.072 0.048 0.023 0.013 0.011 0.014 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.643 0.838 0.839 0.938 0.950 0.965 0.975 0.955 0.956 0.970 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.447 0.445 0.507 0.411 SDEV 0.208 0.228 0.158 0.204 SERR 0.014 0.014 0.009 0.012 EPS 0.948 0.952 0.964 0.946 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.620 0.264 0.886 4.083 0.292 0.589 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.510 0.272 0.111 216 214 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.70 5.21 1.01 1.43 6.64 28.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 288. 149. 101. 174. 323. 430. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.587 0.482 0.399 0.379 0.352 0.384 0.320 0.359 0.343 0.323 PACF 0.587 0.210 0.082 0.113 0.070 0.142 -0.015 0.124 0.052 0.016 95% C.L. 0.096 0.125 0.142 0.152 0.160 0.167 0.175 0.181 0.187 0.193 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.412 0.403 0.137 0.032 0.068 0.008 0.154 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134105 0.73280901 2 700012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067485 0.65753073 3 700021 1 2.04695821 0.02852932 0.00000000 0.28776908 4 700022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116393 0.51083004 5 700031 1 0.92515463 0.00575700 0.00000000 0.19123605 6 700032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00130803 0.93200654 7 700041 1 0.95890689 0.01658498 0.00000000 0.25804275 8 700042 1 0.56010205 0.00729938 0.00000000 0.33253163 9 700051 1 0.81727803 0.01853050 0.00000000 0.42168683 10 700052 1 1.39584088 0.00948197 0.00000000 0.24105306 11 700061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056470 1.22027302 12 700062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00288269 1.14338207 13 700071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01291050 2.47071171 14 700072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00247544 1.54393482 15 700081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01463976 2.82117224 16 700082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01756168 2.84891295 17 700091 1 1.30645037 0.01522962 0.00000000 0.33226770 18 700092 1 1.83087993 0.01317175 0.00000000 0.29115993 19 700101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00233082 0.96094543 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 1 0.78101528 0.00495037 0.00000000 0.20149341 21 700111 1 1.35512900 0.00838862 0.00000000 0.14588861 22 700112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00102021 0.53888810 23 700121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00186127 0.96206349 24 700122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00224243 1.00825036 25 700131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00186302 0.29079074 26 700132 1 0.69279063 0.02531034 0.00000000 0.70072114 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.997 0.483 0.716 3.484 0.342 0.662 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.999 0.520 1.085 4.389 0.368 0.600 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.002 0.395 0.454 3.529 0.330 0.512 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.996 0.466 0.701 3.649 0.336 0.651 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.999 0.375 0.627 4.038 0.346 0.379 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.993 0.514 1.163 5.085 0.355 0.697 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.420 0.642 3.305 0.343 0.491 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.387 0.426 3.228 0.302 0.554 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.361 0.776 3.987 0.277 0.494 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.358 1.146 5.838 0.246 0.578 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.271 0.319 2.791 0.199 0.570 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.999 0.248 0.194 2.714 0.207 0.487 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.999 0.252 1.154 5.082 0.233 0.192 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.260 1.088 6.754 0.223 0.329 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.996 0.384 0.741 4.289 0.232 0.714 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.368 2.024 10.246 0.242 0.635 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.001 0.409 0.893 4.170 0.294 0.592 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.004 0.367 0.358 2.871 0.287 0.566 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.008 0.445 0.689 4.081 0.344 0.599 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.001 0.364 0.357 3.223 0.338 0.417 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.007 0.400 0.358 3.263 0.381 0.345 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.999 0.357 0.028 2.809 0.373 0.253 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.986 0.467 0.702 3.792 0.324 0.699 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.984 0.459 0.731 3.465 0.323 0.668 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.999 0.388 0.613 3.442 0.352 0.332 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.348 0.118 2.675 0.324 0.421 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 0.999 0.387 0.696 4.085 0.305 0.517 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.005 0.074 0.420 1.593 0.055 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.386 0.695 3.589 0.324 0.560 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.002 0.086 0.535 1.060 0.099 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.984 0.248 0.028 2.675 0.199 0.192 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.999 0.358 0.358 3.228 0.246 0.417 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.445 0.893 4.289 0.344 0.635 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.008 0.520 2.024 10.246 0.381 0.714 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 700012 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 700021 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 700022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 700031 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 700032 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 700041 -67 287 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 700042 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 700051 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 700052 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 700061 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 700062 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 700071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 700072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 700081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 700082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 700091 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 700092 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 700101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 700111 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 700112 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 700121 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 700122 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 700131 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 700132 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.469 0.579 3.059 0.342 0.643 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.993 0.478 0.980 4.443 0.368 0.552 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.998 0.385 0.391 3.535 0.330 0.481 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.992 0.425 0.405 2.957 0.336 0.590 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.999 0.362 0.437 3.501 0.346 0.339 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.996 0.421 0.507 3.365 0.356 0.513 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.995 0.392 0.471 3.016 0.343 0.433 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.997 0.376 0.430 3.376 0.302 0.533 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.998 0.344 0.591 3.573 0.277 0.467 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.998 0.347 1.027 5.388 0.246 0.560 11 700061 1810 1983 174 0.998 0.258 0.427 3.198 0.199 0.533 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.999 0.210 0.144 3.163 0.207 0.284 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.999 0.246 1.074 4.879 0.233 0.173 14 700072 1852 1983 132 0.999 0.242 1.083 6.833 0.223 0.262 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.985 0.333 0.676 3.804 0.230 0.646 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.995 0.337 1.654 8.544 0.241 0.583 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.996 0.399 1.076 5.127 0.294 0.581 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.994 0.340 0.559 3.726 0.287 0.497 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.993 0.405 0.386 3.051 0.345 0.522 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.997 0.344 0.112 2.752 0.338 0.354 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.997 0.372 0.109 2.829 0.381 0.285 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.998 0.353 0.017 2.805 0.373 0.227 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.997 0.402 0.296 2.704 0.325 0.530 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.996 0.428 0.600 3.317 0.323 0.559 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.998 0.381 0.667 3.698 0.352 0.301 26 700132 1715 1983 269 0.996 0.332 0.049 2.588 0.324 0.370 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 0.996 0.361 0.567 3.817 0.305 0.455 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.003 0.066 0.388 1.375 0.055 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.997 0.367 0.489 3.371 0.324 0.505 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.003 0.065 0.289 0.788 0.099 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.985 0.210 0.017 2.588 0.199 0.173 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.995 0.337 0.386 3.016 0.246 0.339 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 0.998 0.402 0.676 3.804 0.345 0.559 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 0.999 0.478 1.654 8.544 0.381 0.646 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.480 0.115 0.006 -0.250 2.711 0.160 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.160 SERIES 700052 AND 700081 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 700111 AND 700112 255 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.441 0.399 0.357 0.570 0.565 0.639 0.655 0.539 0.547 0.594 SDEV 0.110 0.084 0.231 0.215 0.165 0.132 0.131 0.178 0.150 0.160 SERR 0.063 0.048 0.073 0.047 0.020 0.012 0.010 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.726 0.769 0.821 0.941 0.953 0.970 0.973 0.957 0.960 0.969 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.452 0.465 0.512 0.416 SDEV 0.208 0.212 0.147 0.182 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.949 0.956 0.964 0.947 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.983 0.282 0.053 3.032 0.272 0.353 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.438 0.145 0.102 111 319 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.39 1.00 1.07 1.46 15.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.352 0.226 0.100 0.047 -0.006 0.065 -0.031 0.036 0.001 -0.047 PACF 0.352 0.116 -0.013 -0.007 -0.032 0.083 -0.077 0.054 -0.015 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.096 0.108 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.136 0.311 0.117 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.367 0.275 0.144 0.089 -0.008 0.051 0.010 0.045 0.012 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.367 2 0.307 0.162 3 0.307 0.162 -0.001 4 0.307 0.162 -0.001 0.001 5 0.307 0.162 0.011 0.022 -0.070 6 0.312 0.161 0.010 0.011 -0.091 0.068 7 0.313 0.160 0.010 0.011 -0.090 0.071 -0.009 8 0.313 0.157 0.013 0.011 -0.090 0.065 -0.020 0.035 9 0.314 0.157 0.014 0.010 -0.090 0.066 -0.017 0.040 -0.016 10 0.313 0.159 0.013 0.013 -0.095 0.066 -0.017 0.049 0.002 -0.057 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3985.84 3925.72 3916.24 3918.24 3920.24 3920.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3920.09 3922.06 3923.52 3925.41 3926.02 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.307 0.162 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.73 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.67 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.307 0.257 0.129 0.081 0.046 0.027 0.016 0.009 0.005 0.0032 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 700011 2 0.443 0.508 0.212 2 700012 2 0.327 0.454 0.178 3 700021 2 0.245 0.420 0.128 4 700022 2 0.380 0.460 0.221 5 700031 2 0.126 0.305 0.104 6 700032 2 0.290 0.422 0.181 7 700041 2 0.227 0.344 0.208 8 700042 2 0.321 0.418 0.217 9 700051 2 0.299 0.326 0.305 10 700052 2 0.352 0.432 0.230 11 700061 2 0.311 0.445 0.173 12 700062 2 0.112 0.300 -0.046 13 700071 2 0.053 0.163 0.062 14 700072 2 0.085 0.252 0.042 15 700081 2 0.424 0.651 0.001 16 700082 2 0.390 0.583 0.004 17 700091 2 0.363 0.482 0.171 18 700092 2 0.292 0.394 0.209 19 700101 2 0.288 0.447 0.144 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 700102 2 0.146 0.300 0.153 21 700111 2 0.099 0.252 0.117 22 700112 2 0.105 0.182 0.199 23 700121 2 0.298 0.461 0.137 24 700122 2 0.368 0.412 0.270 25 700131 2 0.100 0.273 0.095 26 700132 2 0.151 0.327 0.121 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.254 0.385 0.148 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.115 0.085 MEDIAN 2 0.291 0.415 0.162 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.226 0.154 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.053 0.163 -0.046 LOWER HINGE 2 0.126 0.300 0.104 UPPER HINGE 2 0.352 0.454 0.209 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.443 0.651 0.305 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.350 0.566 3.701 0.390 -0.005 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.392 0.697 3.843 0.423 -0.001 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.335 0.370 4.181 0.378 -0.004 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.334 0.319 3.395 0.375 -0.001 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.338 0.313 3.335 0.383 -0.004 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.354 0.098 3.154 0.413 -0.002 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.344 0.414 3.556 0.382 -0.014 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.310 0.200 3.276 0.353 -0.014 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.289 0.596 3.694 0.322 -0.030 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.280 0.896 5.852 0.295 -0.008 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.213 0.456 3.737 0.234 -0.002 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.201 0.159 3.033 0.235 -0.008 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.242 0.972 5.030 0.251 0.009 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.233 0.986 6.595 0.248 0.004 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.252 0.551 3.909 0.275 -0.002 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.273 0.661 5.294 0.300 0.000 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.320 0.462 3.988 0.365 -0.017 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.288 0.072 3.004 0.339 -0.024 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.342 -0.042 3.158 0.400 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.318 -0.167 2.825 0.378 0.002 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.354 -0.040 2.847 0.413 -0.008 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.337 -0.191 3.022 0.404 -0.026 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.336 0.072 3.342 0.375 -0.002 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.002 0.333 0.296 3.794 0.366 0.019 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.361 0.453 3.869 0.401 0.002 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.306 0.059 2.790 0.359 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.309 0.355 3.778 0.348 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.049 0.330 0.947 0.059 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.327 0.344 3.625 0.370 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.063 0.494 0.755 0.090 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.201 -0.191 2.790 0.234 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.280 0.072 3.154 0.300 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.342 0.566 3.909 0.390 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.002 0.392 0.986 6.595 0.423 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.556 0.104 0.006 -0.337 2.672 0.281 0.803 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.281 SERIES 700082 AND 700092 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.803 SERIES 700111 AND 700112 255 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.692 0.608 0.400 0.621 0.676 0.712 0.707 0.610 0.556 0.602 SDEV 0.018 0.109 0.166 0.143 0.089 0.096 0.095 0.136 0.145 0.121 SERR 0.011 0.063 0.052 0.031 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.010 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.883 0.886 0.846 0.952 0.970 0.978 0.979 0.967 0.961 0.969 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.576 0.574 0.612 0.502 SDEV 0.123 0.121 0.108 0.143 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.006 0.008 EPS 0.969 0.971 0.976 0.962 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.991 0.265 -0.053 3.316 0.311 -0.070 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.308 0.089 0.093 123 307 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.42 1.00 1.08 1.49 11.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.070 -0.075 -0.040 -0.032 -0.074 0.095 -0.064 0.056 0.028 -0.017 PACF -0.070 -0.081 -0.052 -0.046 -0.089 0.075 -0.070 0.053 0.027 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.014 -0.075 -0.081 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.007 -0.061 -0.041 -0.079 0.088 -0.057 0.061 0.021 -0.015 PACF -0.004 -0.007 -0.061 -0.041 -0.081 0.083 -0.063 0.052 0.023 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 -0.004 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.991 0.282 0.063 3.043 0.269 0.336 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.335 0.230 0.050 0.013 -0.041 0.062 -0.025 0.047 0.005 -0.031 PACF 0.335 0.132 -0.070 -0.016 -0.037 0.102 -0.063 0.047 -0.008 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.096 0.107 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.133 0.300 0.153 -0.069 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.43 MINUTES