RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM570W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM570W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 700 1 Sierra Blanca, (Ruidoso) WIDTH_RING PSME - 700 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3120 3320-10540 1554 19 700 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 700021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 700052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1713 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 700112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.745 0.384 0.983 4.018 0.299 0.728 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.792 0.411 1.134 4.721 0.320 0.675 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.609 0.526 2.827 11.401 0.280 0.905 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.489 0.253 1.262 4.852 0.258 0.776 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.827 0.417 1.117 4.750 0.287 0.688 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.930 0.452 0.729 3.381 0.301 0.738 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.517 0.353 2.272 9.527 0.282 0.773 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.648 0.313 1.318 5.135 0.262 0.739 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.745 0.350 1.299 4.796 0.258 0.715 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.767 0.516 1.505 4.932 0.224 0.846 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.428 0.375 0.293 2.878 0.189 0.595 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.826 0.507 0.303 2.864 0.189 0.641 13 700071 1878 1983 106 2.452 0.804 0.823 4.420 0.225 0.540 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.830 0.489 0.993 6.023 0.221 0.383 15 700081 1870 1983 114 2.468 1.046 0.172 2.598 0.217 0.762 16 700082 1883 1983 101 2.538 1.076 0.515 3.036 0.232 0.680 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.980 0.770 1.989 7.456 0.257 0.863 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.996 0.715 1.264 3.583 0.245 0.877 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.885 0.409 0.562 2.711 0.261 0.767 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.854 0.372 0.857 3.365 0.277 0.703 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.766 0.516 1.171 3.550 0.324 0.812 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.528 0.204 0.613 3.630 0.319 0.452 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.933 0.463 0.435 2.929 0.294 0.738 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.910 0.502 0.714 3.292 0.285 0.802 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.702 0.213 0.421 3.043 0.250 0.490 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.035 0.371 0.604 3.644 0.267 0.589 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1554 TO 1983 430 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 269 1.085 0.493 1.007 4.482 0.262 0.703 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.615 0.223 0.628 2.109 0.037 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.869 0.434 0.920 3.637 0.262 0.733 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.291 0.145 0.702 1.809 0.055 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.489 0.204 0.172 2.598 0.189 0.383 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.745 0.371 0.562 3.043 0.232 0.641 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.035 0.516 1.264 4.852 0.287 0.776 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 2.538 1.076 2.827 11.401 0.324 0.905 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.504 0.189 0.010 -0.790 3.681 -0.246 0.887 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.246 SERIES 700062 AND 700121 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.887 SERIES 700091 AND 700092 261 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.349 0.426 0.415 0.578 0.538 0.577 0.664 0.500 0.524 0.602 SDEV 0.153 0.061 0.214 0.194 0.170 0.152 0.151 0.192 0.159 0.174 SERR 0.088 0.035 0.068 0.042 0.021 0.014 0.012 0.015 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.643 0.787 0.854 0.943 0.948 0.961 0.974 0.950 0.956 0.970 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.450 0.414 0.498 0.406 SDEV 0.219 0.249 0.165 0.215 SERR 0.015 0.016 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.949 0.946 0.962 0.945 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.832 0.328 0.899 3.999 0.248 0.644 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.454 0.229 0.167 204 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.11 4.70 1.00 1.57 6.27 29.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 288. 149. 101. 174. 323. 430. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.642 0.527 0.458 0.404 0.385 0.426 0.363 0.390 0.384 0.343 PACF 0.642 0.195 0.107 0.061 0.085 0.170 -0.028 0.120 0.055 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.096 0.130 0.149 0.161 0.171 0.178 0.188 0.194 0.201 0.208 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.452 0.484 0.144 0.126 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183896 1.01055622 2 700012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133902 1.00868618 3 700021 1 2.59539151 0.02968680 0.00000000 0.39748195 4 700022 1 0.65995467 0.00567492 0.00000000 0.16894759 5 700031 1 1.35366678 0.00499607 0.00000000 0.14659260 6 700032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00164626 1.20892227 7 700041 1 1.23937809 0.01629815 0.00000000 0.34111372 8 700042 1 0.77306241 0.01058612 0.00000000 0.48056322 9 700051 1 1.02428317 0.01615977 0.00000000 0.53689277 10 700052 1 1.62824559 0.00907358 0.00000000 0.30084059 11 700061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068709 1.48845398 12 700062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00431061 1.55049872 13 700071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01643046 3.33129382 14 700072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00282015 2.01723695 15 700081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01756052 3.47780013 16 700082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02372499 3.74769711 17 700091 1 2.50919938 0.01678201 0.00000000 0.41888463 18 700092 1 2.49857664 0.01377235 0.00000000 0.37033638 19 700101 1 1.21234202 0.00495200 0.00000000 0.23344749 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 1 1.07428908 0.00484006 0.00000000 0.27680773 21 700111 1 1.68644404 0.00746669 0.00000000 0.15972652 22 700112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143554 0.71479887 23 700121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00218268 1.28483796 24 700122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00303306 1.39266646 25 700131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00143626 0.58400589 26 700132 1 0.81502682 0.02629459 0.00000000 0.92173535 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.454 0.793 3.753 0.298 0.685 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.998 0.487 1.099 4.455 0.319 0.645 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.354 0.850 6.329 0.283 0.533 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.999 0.384 0.708 3.939 0.257 0.667 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.998 0.333 0.677 4.309 0.286 0.424 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.994 0.456 1.057 4.609 0.300 0.715 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.372 0.615 3.380 0.282 0.520 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.363 0.498 3.301 0.262 0.597 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.324 0.771 4.143 0.257 0.455 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.327 1.072 5.617 0.223 0.557 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.262 0.308 2.810 0.188 0.595 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.999 0.264 0.361 2.740 0.188 0.599 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.999 0.259 1.058 4.616 0.223 0.366 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.262 1.044 5.758 0.219 0.371 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.996 0.393 1.021 5.519 0.214 0.728 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.999 0.363 1.816 8.723 0.230 0.645 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.002 0.397 0.949 4.590 0.257 0.668 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.004 0.339 0.387 2.889 0.244 0.605 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.001 0.382 0.798 4.628 0.260 0.663 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.001 0.337 0.498 3.755 0.276 0.551 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.007 0.369 0.479 3.565 0.323 0.412 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.325 0.101 2.994 0.315 0.305 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.990 0.456 0.728 3.746 0.293 0.711 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.984 0.453 0.929 4.129 0.284 0.722 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.286 0.269 2.802 0.249 0.389 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.311 0.102 2.722 0.267 0.483 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 0.999 0.358 0.730 4.224 0.261 0.562 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.004 0.066 0.378 1.354 0.038 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.358 0.750 4.034 0.261 0.596 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.002 0.069 0.542 1.314 0.056 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.984 0.259 0.101 2.722 0.188 0.305 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.998 0.324 0.479 3.301 0.230 0.455 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.393 1.021 4.616 0.286 0.667 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.007 0.487 1.816 8.723 0.323 0.728 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 700012 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 700021 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 700022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 700031 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 700032 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 700041 -67 287 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 700042 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 700051 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 700052 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 700061 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 700062 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 700071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 700072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 700081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 700082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 700091 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 700092 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 700101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 700111 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 700112 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 700121 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 700122 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 700131 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 700132 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.442 0.664 3.315 0.298 0.670 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.993 0.444 0.935 4.364 0.319 0.601 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.999 0.346 0.747 5.983 0.283 0.507 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.995 0.357 0.447 3.465 0.257 0.627 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.999 0.320 0.514 3.840 0.286 0.379 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.997 0.377 0.482 3.323 0.300 0.556 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.996 0.350 0.472 3.146 0.282 0.473 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.997 0.351 0.503 3.477 0.262 0.575 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.998 0.312 0.641 3.826 0.257 0.433 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.320 0.984 5.328 0.223 0.544 11 700061 1810 1983 174 0.998 0.248 0.417 3.289 0.188 0.557 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.999 0.218 0.314 3.115 0.188 0.409 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.999 0.254 1.011 4.543 0.223 0.350 14 700072 1852 1983 132 0.999 0.244 0.982 5.584 0.219 0.313 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.985 0.337 0.951 4.904 0.212 0.667 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.995 0.336 1.569 7.702 0.230 0.603 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.996 0.386 1.198 5.898 0.257 0.660 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.995 0.310 0.592 3.740 0.244 0.531 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.995 0.357 0.593 3.653 0.260 0.608 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.997 0.315 0.214 2.940 0.276 0.492 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.997 0.335 0.167 3.074 0.323 0.327 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.999 0.321 0.079 2.987 0.315 0.282 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.997 0.382 0.428 2.941 0.293 0.548 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.997 0.409 0.625 3.264 0.284 0.632 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.998 0.275 0.319 2.959 0.249 0.339 26 700132 1715 1983 269 0.997 0.295 0.037 2.629 0.267 0.436 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 0.997 0.332 0.611 3.973 0.261 0.505 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.003 0.057 0.360 1.235 0.038 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.997 0.335 0.553 3.471 0.261 0.538 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.003 0.047 0.518 1.428 0.056 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.985 0.218 0.037 2.629 0.188 0.282 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.996 0.310 0.417 3.115 0.230 0.409 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 0.999 0.357 0.935 4.543 0.286 0.603 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 0.999 0.444 1.569 7.702 0.323 0.670 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.469 0.116 0.006 -0.324 2.954 0.088 0.759 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.088 SERIES 700062 AND 700121 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.759 SERIES 700111 AND 700112 255 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.411 0.318 0.367 0.591 0.545 0.627 0.640 0.521 0.541 0.592 SDEV 0.126 0.136 0.225 0.187 0.156 0.134 0.134 0.180 0.150 0.165 SERR 0.072 0.079 0.071 0.041 0.019 0.012 0.010 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.701 0.700 0.827 0.945 0.949 0.968 0.971 0.954 0.959 0.968 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.459 0.437 0.497 0.410 SDEV 0.223 0.230 0.155 0.193 SERR 0.015 0.014 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.951 0.951 0.962 0.946 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.981 0.254 0.127 3.190 0.234 0.403 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.383 0.137 0.090 119 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.42 1.00 1.06 1.48 21.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.402 0.246 0.127 0.074 0.025 0.092 -0.002 0.026 -0.007 -0.055 PACF 0.402 0.100 -0.003 0.006 -0.019 0.097 -0.078 0.030 -0.023 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.096 0.111 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.170 0.362 0.100 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.408 0.294 0.176 0.105 0.009 0.075 0.018 0.031 0.007 -0.040 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.408 2 0.346 0.153 3 0.344 0.148 0.014 4 0.344 0.149 0.016 -0.006 5 0.343 0.150 0.026 0.018 -0.068 6 0.350 0.148 0.024 0.004 -0.100 0.092 7 0.352 0.146 0.024 0.005 -0.096 0.101 -0.027 8 0.352 0.144 0.025 0.005 -0.096 0.099 -0.032 0.014 9 0.353 0.144 0.027 0.003 -0.096 0.100 -0.030 0.020 -0.016 10 0.352 0.145 0.025 0.010 -0.102 0.100 -0.028 0.029 0.007 -0.065 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3898.09 3821.74 3813.55 3815.46 3817.45 3817.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3815.79 3817.48 3819.39 3821.29 3821.48 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.346 0.153 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.61 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.86 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.346 0.273 0.147 0.093 0.055 0.033 0.020 0.012 0.007 0.0043 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 700011 2 0.469 0.560 0.167 2 700012 2 0.384 0.488 0.188 3 700021 2 0.263 0.467 0.081 4 700022 2 0.424 0.496 0.211 5 700031 2 0.154 0.345 0.093 6 700032 2 0.332 0.467 0.164 7 700041 2 0.266 0.376 0.211 8 700042 2 0.366 0.450 0.218 9 700051 2 0.270 0.306 0.296 10 700052 2 0.338 0.414 0.241 11 700061 2 0.330 0.483 0.141 12 700062 2 0.218 0.437 -0.057 13 700071 2 0.140 0.363 -0.031 14 700072 2 0.104 0.320 -0.019 15 700081 2 0.455 0.679 -0.008 16 700082 2 0.391 0.651 -0.077 17 700091 2 0.448 0.583 0.116 18 700092 2 0.333 0.407 0.237 19 700101 2 0.381 0.533 0.124 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 700102 2 0.259 0.419 0.149 21 700111 2 0.124 0.297 0.092 22 700112 2 0.134 0.229 0.189 23 700121 2 0.314 0.485 0.120 24 700122 2 0.444 0.476 0.252 25 700131 2 0.122 0.316 0.070 26 700132 2 0.205 0.386 0.119 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.295 0.440 0.126 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.116 0.109 0.100 MEDIAN 2 0.322 0.443 0.133 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.179 0.125 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.104 0.229 -0.077 LOWER HINGE 2 0.205 0.363 0.081 UPPER HINGE 2 0.384 0.488 0.211 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.469 0.679 0.296 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.322 0.749 4.050 0.354 -0.010 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.348 0.736 3.958 0.375 -0.002 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.297 0.645 6.133 0.330 -0.002 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.271 0.418 3.610 0.294 -0.013 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.295 0.360 3.734 0.327 -0.005 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.309 0.097 3.138 0.360 -0.006 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.300 0.427 4.241 0.327 -0.018 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.281 0.185 3.354 0.314 -0.017 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.268 0.653 4.150 0.297 -0.036 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.260 0.968 6.113 0.268 -0.003 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.202 0.413 3.991 0.226 -0.003 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.198 0.173 2.827 0.232 -0.012 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.238 0.686 3.916 0.262 -0.003 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.232 0.779 5.110 0.250 -0.001 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.249 0.877 5.748 0.263 -0.003 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.267 0.841 5.764 0.293 -0.015 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.288 0.564 4.263 0.327 -0.012 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.254 0.078 3.064 0.293 -0.025 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.281 0.058 3.631 0.315 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.271 -0.221 3.067 0.317 0.003 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.315 -0.042 3.129 0.359 -0.009 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.302 -0.199 3.327 0.353 -0.030 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.316 0.283 3.424 0.346 -0.001 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.001 0.302 0.278 4.095 0.337 0.013 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.258 0.206 3.565 0.285 0.003 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.263 0.040 2.860 0.306 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.276 0.387 4.010 0.308 -0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.036 0.341 0.985 0.040 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.276 0.386 3.825 0.315 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.044 0.589 0.914 0.052 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.198 -0.221 2.827 0.226 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.258 0.097 3.327 0.285 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.302 0.686 4.241 0.337 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.001 0.348 0.968 6.133 0.375 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.558 0.102 0.006 -0.371 2.804 0.208 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.208 SERIES 700062 AND 700121 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 700111 AND 700112 255 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.674 0.572 0.393 0.637 0.661 0.710 0.706 0.603 0.576 0.612 SDEV 0.024 0.146 0.173 0.130 0.090 0.087 0.092 0.122 0.120 0.117 SERR 0.014 0.084 0.055 0.028 0.011 0.008 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.874 0.870 0.842 0.955 0.968 0.978 0.979 0.967 0.964 0.971 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.603 0.581 0.614 0.497 SDEV 0.117 0.112 0.104 0.150 SERR 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.009 EPS 0.972 0.972 0.976 0.961 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.989 0.235 -0.062 3.343 0.277 -0.075 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.350 0.098 0.064 127 303 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.45 1.00 1.09 1.54 21.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.075 -0.088 -0.023 -0.028 -0.071 0.129 -0.058 0.028 0.025 -0.017 PACF -0.075 -0.094 -0.038 -0.042 -0.084 0.110 -0.057 0.037 0.023 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.016 -0.082 -0.094 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.007 -0.048 -0.034 -0.071 0.121 -0.050 0.037 0.014 -0.016 PACF -0.004 -0.007 -0.048 -0.034 -0.073 0.118 -0.055 0.032 0.020 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.004 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.990 0.255 0.114 3.129 0.234 0.384 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.383 0.257 0.092 0.045 -0.004 0.097 -0.004 0.034 -0.001 -0.035 PACF 0.383 0.129 -0.051 -0.005 -0.022 0.125 -0.079 0.023 -0.008 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.096 0.110 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.163 0.334 0.129 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES