RUN: NORW003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NORW003N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NORW003N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 528 1 Narvik DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 528 2 Norway Scots pine, Scotch pine 50 6829-1744 1702 1978 - 528 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 528071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 528091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 528171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 528181 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 528021 1833 1978 146 0.305 0.030 1.311 4.752 0.060 0.666 2 528042 1702 1978 277 0.381 0.040 0.646 2.684 0.049 0.812 3 528061 1804 1978 175 0.331 0.026 0.436 2.789 0.073 0.292 4 528062 1801 1978 178 0.328 0.031 0.535 3.446 0.081 0.389 5 528071 1843 1978 136 0.319 0.042 0.582 2.838 0.058 0.819 6 528072 1828 1978 151 0.306 0.047 0.244 4.652 0.073 0.749 7 528082 1836 1978 143 0.357 0.029 0.292 2.907 0.072 0.346 8 528091 1800 1978 179 0.330 0.027 1.007 5.822 0.069 0.401 9 528092 1800 1978 179 0.316 0.025 0.151 2.777 0.065 0.421 10 528111 1827 1978 152 0.331 0.024 0.504 5.772 0.064 0.185 11 528112 1827 1978 152 0.323 0.031 3.456 24.076 0.066 0.344 12 528131 1880 1978 99 0.283 0.023 0.261 2.698 0.072 0.335 13 528132 1882 1978 97 0.296 0.022 0.373 3.546 0.069 0.286 14 528151 1879 1978 100 0.338 0.030 -0.600 2.852 0.065 0.596 15 528152 1879 1978 100 0.322 0.020 -0.535 2.976 0.052 0.403 16 528161 1888 1978 91 0.276 0.020 0.655 3.741 0.069 0.297 17 528162 1890 1978 89 0.273 0.021 -0.049 2.244 0.056 0.569 18 528171 1884 1978 95 0.306 0.024 0.338 3.109 0.064 0.450 19 528172 1884 1978 95 0.319 0.031 -0.497 2.763 0.067 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 528181 1855 1978 124 0.371 0.036 0.876 3.458 0.059 0.708 21 528182 1854 1978 125 0.368 0.032 0.163 3.255 0.064 0.531 22 528191 1869 1978 110 0.314 0.023 0.067 2.586 0.057 0.506 23 528192 1869 1978 110 0.299 0.027 0.717 3.946 0.075 0.409 24 528201 1880 1978 99 0.290 0.018 0.082 3.972 0.054 0.326 25 528202 1881 1978 98 0.305 0.029 0.453 2.997 0.060 0.707 26 528211 1866 1978 113 0.297 0.028 0.118 2.581 0.066 0.597 27 528212 1867 1978 112 0.273 0.024 0.084 2.111 0.066 0.531 28 528221 1884 1978 95 0.325 0.028 1.108 4.114 0.049 0.685 29 528222 1885 1978 94 0.327 0.022 0.124 3.506 0.054 0.441 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 29 FROM 1702 TO 1978 277 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 0.318 0.028 0.445 4.102 0.064 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.028 0.007 0.732 3.951 0.008 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 0.319 0.027 0.338 3.109 0.065 0.450 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.031 0.007 0.528 1.169 0.011 0.320 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.273 0.018 -0.600 2.111 0.049 0.185 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 0.299 0.023 0.118 2.777 0.058 0.346 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 0.330 0.031 0.646 3.946 0.069 0.666 MAXIMUM VALUE 277 0.381 0.047 3.456 24.076 0.081 0.819 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 406 0.204 0.233 0.012 -0.505 3.494 -0.489 0.713 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.489 SERIES 528071 AND 528202 98 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.713 SERIES 528162 AND 528202 89 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 36. 78. 351. 406. RBAR 0.208 0.240 0.185 0.342 0.235 SDEV 0.273 0.243 0.232 0.156 0.235 SERR 0.086 0.041 0.026 0.008 0.012 EPS 0.691 0.816 0.839 0.937 0.899 NSS 8.5 14.1 22.9 28.8 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1978 277 0.358 0.053 0.734 2.335 0.050 0.896 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.799 -0.266 0.116 53 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.24 1.01 1.06 1.31 2.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.84 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 112. 53. 89. 98. 151. 277. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.892 0.873 0.875 0.851 0.841 0.841 0.816 0.818 0.804 0.787 PACF 0.892 0.377 0.305 0.073 0.081 0.115 -0.033 0.091 -0.019 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.120 0.193 0.244 0.286 0.320 0.351 0.379 0.403 0.427 0.448 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.847 0.428 0.216 0.312 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 528021 1 0.09220548 0.03237418 0.00000000 0.28577149 2 528042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032808 0.42661357 3 528061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000640 0.33092219 4 528062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005192 0.33228719 5 528071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088518 0.37771559 6 528072 1 0.15513600 0.01750955 0.00000000 0.25173450 7 528082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008479 0.36344725 8 528091 1 0.02469635 0.00672377 0.00000000 0.31601718 9 528092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013165 0.32743520 10 528111 1 0.01919939 0.15999000 0.00000000 0.32986408 11 528112 1 0.08789328 0.04523632 0.00000000 0.31008315 12 528131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013024 0.28974438 13 528132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003590 0.29411727 14 528151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065191 0.30547878 15 528152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009145 0.31778181 16 528161 1 0.04903305 0.15398477 0.00000000 0.27236772 17 528162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049813 0.25073034 18 528171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047932 0.28597131 19 528172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00070955 0.28488913 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 528181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022891 0.38708386 21 528182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054740 0.33399355 22 528191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038406 0.29241201 23 528192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017501 0.28919601 24 528201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010414 0.28459081 25 528202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067759 0.27115294 26 528211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047450 0.26959071 27 528212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045896 0.24656853 28 528221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062220 0.35523406 29 528222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005368 0.32989019 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 528021 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.061 0.381 2.972 0.060 0.213 2 528042 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.079 0.242 3.429 0.049 0.662 3 528061 1804 1978 175 1.000 0.079 0.441 2.793 0.073 0.289 4 528062 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.093 0.465 3.331 0.080 0.383 5 528071 1843 1978 136 1.000 0.071 0.296 3.169 0.058 0.429 6 528072 1828 1978 151 1.000 0.084 -3.040 25.288 0.073 0.246 7 528082 1836 1978 143 1.000 0.080 0.293 2.983 0.072 0.336 8 528091 1800 1978 179 1.000 0.081 0.991 6.521 0.068 0.384 9 528092 1800 1978 179 1.000 0.074 0.005 2.822 0.065 0.380 10 528111 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.072 0.212 5.440 0.064 0.166 11 528112 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.070 1.658 12.366 0.066 -0.048 12 528131 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.079 0.239 2.775 0.071 0.321 13 528132 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.074 0.453 3.623 0.068 0.283 14 528151 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.071 0.345 4.898 0.065 0.332 15 528152 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.062 -0.502 3.181 0.051 0.387 16 528161 1888 1978 91 1.000 0.066 0.531 3.736 0.068 0.198 17 528162 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.062 0.218 2.833 0.056 0.273 18 528171 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.070 0.129 3.777 0.060 0.380 19 528172 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.079 0.499 3.814 0.066 0.457 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 528181 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.095 0.781 3.089 0.059 0.686 21 528182 1854 1978 125 1.000 0.067 0.092 2.991 0.063 0.226 22 528191 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.064 0.128 3.680 0.057 0.309 23 528192 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.089 0.904 4.497 0.074 0.374 24 528201 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.060 0.113 3.502 0.054 0.308 25 528202 1881 1978 98 1.000 0.071 0.075 3.217 0.060 0.437 26 528211 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.079 0.296 2.967 0.066 0.398 27 528212 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.068 0.567 3.710 0.066 0.211 28 528221 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.067 0.594 3.527 0.049 0.494 29 528222 1885 1978 94 1.000 0.067 0.045 3.554 0.054 0.435 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.074 0.257 4.637 0.063 0.343 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.000 0.009 0.740 4.373 0.008 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.071 0.296 3.502 0.065 0.336 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.012 0.371 0.785 0.010 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.060 -3.040 2.775 0.049 -0.048 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 1.000 0.067 0.128 2.991 0.058 0.273 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.079 0.499 3.777 0.068 0.398 MAXIMUM VALUE 277 1.000 0.095 1.658 25.288 0.080 0.686 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 528021 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 528042 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 528061 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 528062 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 528071 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 528072 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 528082 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 528091 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 528092 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 528111 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 528112 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 528131 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 528132 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 528151 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 528152 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 528161 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 528162 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 528171 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 528172 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 528181 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 528182 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 528191 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 528192 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 528201 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 528202 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 528211 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 528212 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 528221 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 528222 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 528021 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.060 0.400 3.023 0.060 0.177 2 528042 1702 1978 277 0.999 0.064 0.050 3.387 0.049 0.492 3 528061 1804 1978 175 1.000 0.074 0.341 2.811 0.073 0.216 4 528062 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.090 0.454 3.616 0.080 0.336 5 528071 1843 1978 136 1.000 0.067 0.176 3.174 0.058 0.356 6 528072 1828 1978 151 1.000 0.082 -3.221 27.234 0.073 0.207 7 528082 1836 1978 143 1.000 0.072 0.065 3.088 0.072 0.205 8 528091 1800 1978 179 1.000 0.076 0.976 6.564 0.069 0.313 9 528092 1800 1978 179 1.000 0.068 0.165 3.173 0.065 0.245 10 528111 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.071 0.282 5.709 0.064 0.139 11 528112 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.069 1.631 12.515 0.066 -0.078 12 528131 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.076 0.266 2.853 0.072 0.260 13 528132 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.072 0.349 3.283 0.068 0.250 14 528151 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.070 0.317 4.692 0.065 0.319 15 528152 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.055 -0.289 3.213 0.052 0.217 16 528161 1888 1978 91 1.000 0.064 0.416 3.541 0.068 0.171 17 528162 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.056 0.295 2.773 0.055 0.124 18 528171 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.065 0.074 3.841 0.060 0.272 19 528172 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.070 0.403 3.907 0.066 0.309 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 528181 1855 1978 124 0.999 0.074 0.323 2.747 0.059 0.480 21 528182 1854 1978 125 1.000 0.065 0.195 3.168 0.063 0.170 22 528191 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.060 0.293 4.131 0.057 0.201 23 528192 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.085 0.667 4.266 0.074 0.328 24 528201 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.053 0.292 4.647 0.054 0.119 25 528202 1881 1978 98 1.000 0.059 0.059 3.000 0.060 0.224 26 528211 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.067 0.209 3.267 0.066 0.192 27 528212 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.066 0.460 3.389 0.066 0.151 28 528221 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.060 0.592 3.878 0.049 0.372 29 528222 1885 1978 94 1.000 0.059 -0.201 3.759 0.054 0.296 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.068 0.208 4.781 0.063 0.243 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.000 0.009 0.746 4.701 0.008 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.067 0.293 3.389 0.065 0.224 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.012 0.238 0.963 0.010 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 89 0.999 0.053 -3.221 2.747 0.049 -0.078 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 1.000 0.060 0.165 3.168 0.058 0.177 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.072 0.403 4.131 0.068 0.313 MAXIMUM VALUE 277 1.000 0.090 1.631 27.234 0.080 0.492 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 406 0.292 0.116 0.006 0.132 2.603 -0.007 0.583 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 528111 AND 528192 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.583 SERIES 528161 AND 528162 89 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 36. 78. 351. 406. RBAR 0.224 0.192 0.238 0.360 0.300 SDEV 0.259 0.171 0.162 0.134 0.155 SERR 0.082 0.028 0.018 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.711 0.770 0.877 0.942 0.925 NSS 8.5 14.1 22.9 28.8 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1978 277 1.003 0.055 -0.005 3.323 0.052 0.217 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.071 -0.042 0.080 52 225 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.34 1.00 1.09 1.43 7.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.216 0.089 0.146 0.065 0.143 0.172 0.014 0.109 0.108 0.006 PACF 0.216 0.044 0.124 0.007 0.123 0.109 -0.061 0.085 0.041 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.120 0.126 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.132 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.137 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.049 0.217 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.077 -0.085 -0.095 -0.087 -0.020 0.072 -0.076 -0.019 -0.013 -0.040 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.077 2 0.084 -0.091 3 0.076 -0.084 -0.082 4 0.070 -0.091 -0.076 -0.082 5 0.068 -0.093 -0.078 -0.080 -0.024 6 0.069 -0.089 -0.074 -0.075 -0.027 0.055 7 0.075 -0.091 -0.082 -0.083 -0.037 0.062 -0.106 8 0.074 -0.091 -0.082 -0.083 -0.037 0.061 -0.106 -0.006 9 0.074 -0.093 -0.081 -0.084 -0.039 0.060 -0.108 -0.004 -0.021 10 0.073 -0.094 -0.086 -0.081 -0.041 0.056 -0.112 -0.009 -0.017 -0.048 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1339.41 1339.77 1339.46 1339.59 1339.73 1341.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1342.75 1341.60 1343.59 1345.47 1346.84 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 528021 0 0.031 2 528042 0 0.245 3 528061 0 0.049 4 528062 0 0.113 5 528071 0 0.127 6 528072 0 0.043 7 528082 0 0.042 8 528091 0 0.100 9 528092 0 0.061 10 528111 0 0.021 11 528112 0 0.006 12 528131 0 0.069 13 528132 0 0.063 14 528151 0 0.102 15 528152 0 0.048 16 528161 0 0.029 17 528162 0 0.016 18 528171 0 0.074 19 528172 0 0.096 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 528181 0 0.232 21 528182 0 0.030 22 528191 0 0.041 23 528192 0 0.108 24 528201 0 0.014 25 528202 0 0.052 26 528211 0 0.037 27 528212 0 0.023 28 528221 0 0.139 29 528222 0 0.090 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.072 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.058 MEDIAN 0 0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.069 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.006 LOWER HINGE 0 0.031 UPPER HINGE 0 0.100 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.245 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 528021 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.060 0.400 3.023 0.060 0.177 2 528042 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.064 0.050 3.387 0.049 0.492 3 528061 1804 1978 175 1.000 0.074 0.341 2.811 0.073 0.216 4 528062 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.090 0.454 3.616 0.080 0.336 5 528071 1843 1978 136 1.000 0.067 0.176 3.174 0.058 0.356 6 528072 1828 1978 151 1.000 0.082 -3.221 27.234 0.073 0.207 7 528082 1836 1978 143 1.000 0.072 0.065 3.088 0.072 0.205 8 528091 1800 1978 179 1.000 0.076 0.976 6.564 0.069 0.313 9 528092 1800 1978 179 1.000 0.068 0.165 3.173 0.065 0.245 10 528111 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.071 0.282 5.709 0.064 0.139 11 528112 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.069 1.631 12.515 0.066 -0.078 12 528131 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.076 0.266 2.853 0.072 0.260 13 528132 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.072 0.349 3.283 0.068 0.250 14 528151 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.070 0.317 4.692 0.065 0.319 15 528152 1879 1978 100 1.000 0.055 -0.289 3.213 0.052 0.217 16 528161 1888 1978 91 1.000 0.064 0.416 3.541 0.068 0.171 17 528162 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.056 0.295 2.773 0.055 0.124 18 528171 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.065 0.074 3.841 0.060 0.272 19 528172 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.070 0.403 3.907 0.066 0.309 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 528181 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.074 0.323 2.747 0.059 0.480 21 528182 1854 1978 125 1.000 0.065 0.195 3.168 0.063 0.170 22 528191 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.060 0.293 4.131 0.057 0.201 23 528192 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.085 0.667 4.266 0.074 0.328 24 528201 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.053 0.292 4.647 0.054 0.119 25 528202 1881 1978 98 1.000 0.059 0.059 3.000 0.060 0.224 26 528211 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.067 0.209 3.267 0.066 0.192 27 528212 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.066 0.460 3.389 0.066 0.151 28 528221 1884 1978 95 1.000 0.060 0.592 3.878 0.049 0.372 29 528222 1885 1978 94 1.000 0.059 -0.201 3.759 0.054 0.296 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.068 0.208 4.781 0.063 0.243 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.000 0.009 0.746 4.701 0.008 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.067 0.293 3.389 0.065 0.224 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.012 0.238 0.963 0.010 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.053 -3.221 2.747 0.049 -0.078 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 1.000 0.060 0.165 3.168 0.058 0.177 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.072 0.403 4.131 0.068 0.313 MAXIMUM VALUE 277 1.000 0.090 1.631 27.234 0.080 0.492 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 406 0.292 0.116 0.006 0.132 2.603 -0.007 0.583 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 528111 AND 528192 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.583 SERIES 528161 AND 528162 89 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.60 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 36. 78. 351. 406. RBAR 0.224 0.192 0.238 0.360 0.300 SDEV 0.259 0.171 0.162 0.134 0.155 SERR 0.082 0.028 0.018 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.711 0.770 0.877 0.942 0.925 NSS 8.5 14.1 22.9 28.8 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1978 277 1.003 0.055 -0.005 3.322 0.052 0.218 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.074 -0.044 0.082 53 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.34 1.00 1.08 1.42 7.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.217 0.090 0.146 0.066 0.144 0.172 0.015 0.110 0.109 0.008 PACF 0.217 0.045 0.124 0.008 0.124 0.109 -0.061 0.085 0.041 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.120 0.126 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.132 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.138 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.050 0.218 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1978 277 1.003 0.055 -0.005 3.322 0.052 0.218 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.217 0.090 0.146 0.066 0.144 0.172 0.015 0.110 0.109 0.008 PACF 0.217 0.045 0.124 0.008 0.124 0.109 -0.061 0.085 0.041 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.120 0.126 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.132 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.138 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.050 0.218 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES