RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: POLA019W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: POLA019W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 583 1 Swistowko, Wyznig WIDTH_RING PCAB - 583 2 Poland Norway spruce 1500 4915-1955 1699 1978 - 583 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 583051 1837 1978 142 0.828 0.278 0.205 2.789 0.159 0.822 2 583052 1835 1971 137 1.259 0.319 0.662 3.268 0.161 0.708 3 583061 1746 1978 233 0.668 0.208 0.533 3.298 0.191 0.641 4 583071 1755 1978 224 0.558 0.219 1.094 4.407 0.221 0.713 5 583081 1830 1978 149 1.061 0.339 0.626 3.790 0.189 0.708 6 583092 1699 1978 280 0.621 0.357 1.969 12.875 0.217 0.810 7 583102 1864 1978 115 1.154 0.403 -0.385 2.901 0.155 0.828 8 583111 1749 1977 229 0.722 0.211 0.083 3.141 0.180 0.693 9 583121 1776 1978 203 1.098 0.336 0.220 3.455 0.198 0.646 10 583131 1813 1978 166 0.574 0.132 0.398 2.674 0.199 0.382 11 583132 1799 1978 180 0.931 0.237 0.746 4.050 0.198 0.498 12 583141 1828 1978 151 1.056 0.311 -0.330 2.718 0.180 0.692 13 583142 1825 1978 154 1.025 0.369 0.040 2.464 0.174 0.815 14 583151 1776 1978 203 0.805 0.223 0.955 6.967 0.175 0.623 15 583152 1756 1978 223 0.663 0.163 0.463 3.257 0.179 0.559 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 15 FROM 1699 TO 1978 280 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 186 0.868 0.274 0.485 4.137 0.185 0.676 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.230 0.081 0.589 2.653 0.020 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 180 0.828 0.278 0.463 3.268 0.180 0.693 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.393 0.122 0.561 1.075 0.024 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 115 0.558 0.132 -0.385 2.464 0.155 0.382 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.666 0.215 0.144 2.845 0.174 0.632 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.058 0.338 0.704 3.920 0.198 0.761 MAXIMUM VALUE 280 1.259 0.403 1.969 12.875 0.221 0.828 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 105 0.404 0.185 0.018 0.259 2.582 0.033 0.868 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.033 SERIES 583102 AND 583152 115 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.868 SERIES 583141 AND 583142 151 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 10. 28. 45. 91. 105. 105. 91. RBAR 0.216 0.284 0.348 0.376 0.459 0.411 0.496 0.624 SDEV 0.355 0.292 0.260 0.223 0.203 0.193 0.171 0.200 SERR 0.205 0.092 0.049 0.033 0.021 0.019 0.017 0.021 EPS 0.613 0.753 0.851 0.891 0.926 0.913 0.937 0.961 NSS 5.8 7.7 10.6 13.6 14.7 15.0 15.0 14.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1699 1978 280 0.690 0.277 -0.376 2.467 0.160 0.879 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.851 0.432 -0.077 65 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.54 4.48 1.01 1.13 5.61 36.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.78 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 180. 74. 115. 150. 224. 280. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.876 0.830 0.777 0.762 0.750 0.721 0.719 0.687 0.671 0.642 PACF 0.876 0.268 0.046 0.160 0.123 -0.019 0.124 -0.037 0.007 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.120 0.190 0.236 0.270 0.300 0.325 0.347 0.368 0.386 0.402 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.798 0.633 0.283 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 583051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00426969 1.13317049 2 583052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053022 1.29541755 3 583061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018127 0.64681774 4 583071 1 0.22525774 0.04272836 0.00000000 0.53513592 5 583081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075596 1.00417554 6 583092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00260170 0.25539017 7 583102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00855212 1.65045762 8 583111 1 0.46604583 0.06939481 0.00000000 0.69377542 9 583121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00268318 1.37141836 10 583131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080532 0.64097917 11 583132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029103 0.90438426 12 583141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00470903 1.41384637 13 583142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00628083 1.51189458 14 583151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096817 0.70651805 15 583152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062909 0.59268087 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 583051 1837 1978 142 0.998 0.270 0.185 2.667 0.158 0.731 2 583052 1835 1971 137 1.000 0.253 0.640 3.156 0.160 0.701 3 583061 1746 1978 233 1.000 0.310 0.512 3.307 0.190 0.634 4 583071 1755 1978 224 1.000 0.390 1.236 4.847 0.220 0.697 5 583081 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.313 0.501 3.691 0.188 0.695 6 583092 1699 1978 280 0.981 0.396 1.822 11.769 0.217 0.710 7 583102 1864 1978 115 0.990 0.271 0.397 3.375 0.154 0.698 8 583111 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.279 0.072 3.333 0.179 0.660 9 583121 1776 1978 203 0.997 0.273 0.250 3.189 0.197 0.574 10 583131 1813 1978 166 1.000 0.222 0.676 3.226 0.198 0.337 11 583132 1799 1978 180 1.000 0.254 0.777 4.179 0.197 0.492 12 583141 1828 1978 151 0.996 0.236 0.164 3.487 0.179 0.551 13 583142 1825 1978 154 0.996 0.264 0.979 4.752 0.172 0.636 14 583151 1776 1978 203 1.000 0.278 1.748 12.832 0.174 0.596 15 583152 1756 1978 223 1.000 0.240 0.620 4.038 0.178 0.527 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 186 0.997 0.283 0.705 4.790 0.184 0.616 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.005 0.051 0.538 3.114 0.020 0.107 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.271 0.620 3.487 0.179 0.636 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.003 0.041 0.554 1.199 0.024 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 115 0.981 0.222 0.072 2.667 0.154 0.337 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.997 0.254 0.324 3.266 0.173 0.562 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.294 0.878 4.466 0.197 0.698 MAXIMUM VALUE 280 1.000 0.396 1.822 12.832 0.220 0.731 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 583051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 583052 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 583061 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 583071 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 583081 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 583092 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 583102 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 583111 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 583121 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 583131 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 583132 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 583141 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 583142 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 583151 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 583152 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 583051 1837 1978 142 0.994 0.240 0.101 2.599 0.157 0.671 2 583052 1835 1971 137 0.997 0.218 0.260 2.809 0.159 0.604 3 583061 1746 1978 233 0.997 0.298 0.602 3.525 0.190 0.610 4 583071 1755 1978 224 0.990 0.329 1.206 4.850 0.220 0.607 5 583081 1830 1978 149 0.992 0.255 0.432 3.016 0.187 0.577 6 583092 1699 1978 280 0.995 0.351 2.065 15.174 0.217 0.630 7 583102 1864 1978 115 0.997 0.182 0.546 3.235 0.154 0.400 8 583111 1749 1977 229 0.992 0.225 -0.007 3.163 0.179 0.508 9 583121 1776 1978 203 0.997 0.226 0.422 3.426 0.196 0.397 10 583131 1813 1978 166 0.998 0.199 0.576 2.849 0.198 0.215 11 583132 1799 1978 180 0.999 0.251 0.891 4.572 0.197 0.476 12 583141 1828 1978 151 0.997 0.194 0.115 3.332 0.178 0.372 13 583142 1825 1978 154 0.995 0.222 0.758 3.910 0.172 0.522 14 583151 1776 1978 203 0.998 0.254 0.999 7.306 0.174 0.563 15 583152 1756 1978 223 0.999 0.233 0.583 4.060 0.178 0.499 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 186 0.996 0.245 0.637 4.522 0.184 0.510 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.003 0.048 0.521 3.170 0.020 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 180 0.997 0.233 0.576 3.426 0.179 0.522 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.003 0.035 0.483 1.226 0.024 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 115 0.990 0.182 -0.007 2.599 0.154 0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.995 0.220 0.341 3.090 0.173 0.438 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 0.997 0.255 0.824 4.316 0.197 0.605 MAXIMUM VALUE 280 0.999 0.351 2.065 15.174 0.220 0.671 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 105 0.456 0.128 0.013 0.005 3.383 0.109 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.109 SERIES 583111 AND 583152 222 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 583051 AND 583052 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 10. 28. 45. 91. 105. 105. 91. RBAR 0.451 0.404 0.357 0.427 0.471 0.438 0.560 0.571 SDEV 0.195 0.166 0.231 0.183 0.196 0.178 0.149 0.142 SERR 0.112 0.052 0.044 0.027 0.021 0.017 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.826 0.839 0.855 0.910 0.929 0.921 0.950 0.952 NSS 5.8 7.7 10.6 13.6 14.7 15.0 15.0 14.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1699 1978 280 0.987 0.199 0.371 3.082 0.164 0.476 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.240 0.129 0.024 59 221 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.90 1.00 1.08 1.98 76.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.14 0.00 0.79 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.474 0.323 0.154 0.078 0.098 0.063 0.071 0.002 -0.021 -0.114 PACF 0.474 0.126 -0.051 -0.013 0.083 -0.007 0.022 -0.062 -0.021 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.120 0.144 0.154 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.244 0.417 0.128 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.460 0.229 0.061 0.058 0.091 0.027 0.037 -0.035 -0.002 -0.076 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.460 2 0.450 0.022 3 0.451 0.052 -0.066 4 0.455 0.049 -0.094 0.062 5 0.451 0.055 -0.098 0.031 0.069 6 0.455 0.057 -0.104 0.034 0.098 -0.064 7 0.458 0.053 -0.105 0.039 0.096 -0.082 0.039 8 0.461 0.048 -0.099 0.041 0.089 -0.079 0.070 -0.066 9 0.463 0.046 -0.096 0.038 0.087 -0.075 0.068 -0.081 0.033 10 0.466 0.038 -0.090 0.031 0.096 -0.072 0.059 -0.077 0.078 -0.097 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1966.51 1901.97 1903.83 1904.60 1905.51 1906.17 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1907.02 1908.58 1909.35 1911.05 1910.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.460 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 21.15 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 126.83 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.460 0.212 0.097 0.045 0.021 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 583051 1 0.465 0.679 2 583052 1 0.385 0.617 3 583061 1 0.383 0.616 4 583071 1 0.371 0.608 5 583081 1 0.353 0.584 6 583092 1 0.402 0.634 7 583102 1 0.184 0.401 8 583111 1 0.305 0.515 9 583121 1 0.164 0.401 10 583131 1 0.064 0.216 11 583132 1 0.232 0.477 12 583141 1 0.142 0.374 13 583142 1 0.288 0.528 14 583151 1 0.324 0.566 15 583152 1 0.287 0.504 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.290 0.515 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.112 0.124 MEDIAN 1 0.305 0.528 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.169 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.064 0.216 LOWER HINGE 1 0.208 0.439 UPPER HINGE 1 0.377 0.612 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.465 0.679 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 583051 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.176 0.041 3.236 0.206 -0.057 2 583052 1835 1971 137 1.000 0.171 0.185 2.808 0.204 -0.037 3 583061 1746 1978 233 1.000 0.234 0.703 4.378 0.253 -0.044 4 583071 1755 1978 224 1.000 0.261 0.954 6.016 0.273 0.017 5 583081 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.206 0.277 2.952 0.221 0.074 6 583092 1699 1978 280 1.000 0.271 1.672 14.043 0.281 -0.013 7 583102 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.167 0.450 2.996 0.172 0.065 8 583111 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.193 0.062 3.341 0.225 -0.111 9 583121 1776 1978 203 1.000 0.207 0.506 3.025 0.228 -0.025 10 583131 1813 1978 166 1.000 0.195 0.498 2.711 0.223 -0.030 11 583132 1799 1978 180 1.000 0.220 0.727 4.814 0.238 -0.036 12 583141 1828 1978 151 1.000 0.180 0.081 3.233 0.202 -0.017 13 583142 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.188 0.434 3.868 0.215 -0.056 14 583151 1776 1978 203 1.000 0.209 1.033 7.128 0.223 -0.040 15 583152 1756 1978 223 1.000 0.201 0.637 4.717 0.220 -0.101 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 186 1.000 0.205 0.551 4.618 0.226 -0.027 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.031 0.437 2.904 0.028 0.051 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.201 0.498 3.341 0.223 -0.036 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.031 0.483 1.755 0.023 0.035 MINIMUM VALUE 115 1.000 0.167 0.041 2.711 0.172 -0.111 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.184 0.231 3.011 0.210 -0.050 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.215 0.715 4.765 0.233 -0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 280 1.000 0.271 1.672 14.043 0.281 0.074 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 105 0.509 0.101 0.010 -0.130 3.409 0.231 0.816 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.231 SERIES 583111 AND 583152 222 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.816 SERIES 583141 AND 583142 151 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 10. 28. 45. 91. 105. 105. 91. RBAR 0.599 0.460 0.522 0.546 0.512 0.496 0.608 0.589 SDEV 0.155 0.153 0.124 0.111 0.153 0.140 0.114 0.103 SERR 0.089 0.048 0.023 0.017 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.896 0.868 0.921 0.942 0.939 0.936 0.959 0.955 NSS 5.8 7.7 10.6 13.6 14.7 15.0 15.0 14.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1699 1978 280 0.997 0.173 0.270 3.152 0.205 -0.112 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.202 0.084 0.031 57 223 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.03 1.00 1.10 2.12 16.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.17 0.00 0.76 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.112 0.066 -0.030 -0.048 0.060 -0.015 0.096 -0.012 0.042 -0.068 PACF -0.112 0.054 -0.017 -0.057 0.053 0.003 0.087 0.008 0.037 -0.060 95% C.L. 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 -0.113 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 0.052 -0.029 -0.045 0.054 0.001 0.095 0.002 0.033 -0.067 PACF 0.006 0.052 -0.029 -0.048 0.058 0.005 0.087 0.002 0.029 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1699 1978 280 0.998 0.195 0.427 3.408 0.161 0.476 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.474 0.247 0.088 0.028 0.063 0.058 0.094 0.036 0.003 -0.083 PACF 0.474 0.028 -0.051 -0.001 0.076 0.007 0.062 -0.047 -0.016 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.120 0.144 0.150 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.152 0.152 0.152 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.229 0.477 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES