RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS020L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS020L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 520 1 Baikalsee, Irkutsk WIDTH_LATE PISY - 520 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 700 5336-10500 1890 1978 - 520 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 520011 1928 1978 51 0.571 0.150 0.533 3.364 0.281 0.223 2 520012 1895 1978 84 0.492 0.240 0.145 2.479 0.313 0.728 3 520021 1897 1978 82 0.619 0.275 1.670 7.863 0.276 0.519 4 520022 1890 1978 89 0.520 0.220 0.835 4.094 0.327 0.557 5 520031 1896 1978 83 0.441 0.154 0.002 3.023 0.293 0.575 6 520032 1896 1978 83 0.505 0.142 0.308 3.475 0.247 0.420 7 520041 1892 1978 87 0.397 0.164 0.389 2.910 0.311 0.610 8 520042 1891 1978 88 0.504 0.207 0.271 3.045 0.300 0.602 9 520051 1898 1978 81 0.480 0.213 0.304 4.205 0.360 0.656 10 520052 1896 1978 83 0.510 0.212 0.429 3.420 0.304 0.626 11 520061 1891 1978 88 0.419 0.157 0.438 3.201 0.322 0.407 12 520062 1897 1978 82 0.358 0.146 1.041 5.149 0.382 0.277 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1890 TO 1978 89 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.485 0.190 0.530 3.852 0.310 0.517 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.073 0.044 0.456 1.448 0.036 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.498 0.186 0.409 3.392 0.308 0.566 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.085 0.065 0.397 1.115 0.038 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.358 0.142 0.002 2.479 0.247 0.223 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 0.430 0.152 0.287 3.034 0.287 0.414 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 87 0.515 0.217 0.684 4.149 0.325 0.618 MAXIMUM VALUE 89 0.619 0.275 1.670 7.863 0.382 0.728 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.314 0.200 0.025 0.199 3.246 -0.173 0.773 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.173 SERIES 520012 AND 520022 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.773 SERIES 520021 AND 520022 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 87.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 55. RBAR 0.371 SDEV 0.230 SERR 0.031 EPS 0.876 NSS 11.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1978 89 0.479 0.116 0.333 3.573 0.206 0.490 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.334 0.162 0.095 9 80 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.96 1.00 1.11 2.07 5.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 6. 51. 82. 88. 89. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.485 0.152 0.005 -0.001 0.028 0.034 -0.030 0.044 -0.001 -0.069 PACF 0.485 -0.108 -0.031 0.034 0.026 0.004 -0.069 0.122 -0.090 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.212 0.257 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.262 0.262 0.262 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.244 0.485 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 520011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064796 0.55413336 2 520012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00609912 0.23281124 3 520021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00679194 0.90125561 4 520022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00531869 0.75889170 5 520031 1 0.28046465 0.07171042 0.00000000 0.39575055 6 520032 1 0.29325184 0.12889284 0.00000000 0.47961906 7 520041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00325235 0.53965515 8 520042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00320392 0.64655173 9 520051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00186721 0.40393826 10 520052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00127891 0.45628563 11 520061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170732 0.49472570 12 520062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00194589 0.43916893 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 520011 1928 1978 51 1.000 0.263 0.636 3.643 0.276 0.217 2 520012 1895 1978 84 0.990 0.376 -0.205 3.109 0.311 0.532 3 520021 1897 1978 82 0.998 0.337 1.369 5.366 0.273 0.315 4 520022 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.338 0.583 2.996 0.325 0.253 5 520031 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.320 -0.175 3.486 0.290 0.483 6 520032 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.258 -0.213 2.492 0.245 0.328 7 520041 1892 1978 87 0.995 0.373 0.949 4.158 0.307 0.502 8 520042 1891 1978 88 0.996 0.404 0.845 4.049 0.297 0.570 9 520051 1898 1978 81 0.999 0.434 0.293 4.650 0.355 0.640 10 520052 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.410 0.435 3.565 0.301 0.604 11 520061 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.367 0.540 3.107 0.318 0.392 12 520062 1897 1978 82 0.999 0.386 1.177 6.046 0.378 0.183 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.998 0.355 0.520 3.889 0.306 0.418 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.003 0.055 0.528 1.036 0.036 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.999 0.370 0.562 3.604 0.304 0.438 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.003 0.066 0.838 1.296 0.039 0.267 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.990 0.258 -0.213 2.492 0.245 0.183 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 0.997 0.329 0.059 3.108 0.283 0.284 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 87 1.000 0.395 0.897 4.404 0.322 0.551 MAXIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.434 1.369 6.046 0.378 0.640 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 520011 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 520012 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 520021 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 520022 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 520031 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 520032 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 520041 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 520042 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 520051 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 520052 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 520061 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 520062 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 520011 1928 1978 51 0.997 0.237 0.490 3.113 0.276 0.020 2 520012 1895 1978 84 0.991 0.337 -0.208 4.159 0.311 0.427 3 520021 1897 1978 82 0.996 0.313 1.275 5.354 0.272 0.222 4 520022 1890 1978 89 0.998 0.326 0.582 3.233 0.325 0.204 5 520031 1896 1978 83 0.996 0.305 -0.258 3.213 0.290 0.428 6 520032 1896 1978 83 0.998 0.244 0.101 2.803 0.245 0.230 7 520041 1892 1978 87 0.998 0.324 0.510 3.425 0.307 0.380 8 520042 1891 1978 88 0.994 0.335 0.675 3.487 0.295 0.356 9 520051 1898 1978 81 0.997 0.395 -0.309 4.204 0.355 0.589 10 520052 1896 1978 83 0.998 0.375 0.030 3.134 0.301 0.541 11 520061 1891 1978 88 0.997 0.358 0.582 3.221 0.318 0.366 12 520062 1897 1978 82 0.998 0.367 0.786 4.619 0.378 0.119 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.996 0.326 0.355 3.664 0.306 0.324 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.002 0.048 0.485 0.757 0.036 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.997 0.331 0.500 3.329 0.304 0.361 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.002 0.054 0.717 1.008 0.038 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.991 0.237 -0.309 2.803 0.245 0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 0.996 0.309 -0.089 3.174 0.283 0.213 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 87 0.998 0.362 0.629 4.182 0.321 0.428 MAXIMUM VALUE 89 0.998 0.395 1.275 5.354 0.378 0.589 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.406 0.126 0.015 0.279 2.767 0.119 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.119 SERIES 520011 AND 520052 51 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 520031 AND 520032 83 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 87.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 55. RBAR 0.427 SDEV 0.138 SERR 0.019 EPS 0.899 NSS 11.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1978 89 0.988 0.228 0.209 3.460 0.222 0.339 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.309 0.129 0.112 22 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.77 1.00 1.03 1.79 6.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.336 0.004 -0.132 -0.085 -0.057 -0.040 -0.101 -0.037 -0.079 -0.136 PACF 0.336 -0.122 -0.106 -0.001 -0.042 -0.031 -0.103 0.022 -0.103 -0.126 95% C.L. 0.212 0.235 0.235 0.238 0.239 0.240 0.240 0.242 0.242 0.244 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.132 0.341 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.394 0.018 -0.128 -0.134 -0.088 -0.042 -0.095 0.006 -0.059 -0.161 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.394 2 0.458 -0.163 3 0.443 -0.122 -0.088 4 0.439 -0.128 -0.066 -0.050 5 0.438 -0.130 -0.069 -0.037 -0.030 6 0.437 -0.131 -0.071 -0.040 -0.020 -0.022 7 0.434 -0.134 -0.076 -0.048 -0.035 0.028 -0.115 8 0.444 -0.136 -0.073 -0.044 -0.029 0.039 -0.152 0.085 9 0.456 -0.157 -0.067 -0.048 -0.035 0.029 -0.171 0.148 -0.140 10 0.437 -0.136 -0.091 -0.044 -0.040 0.023 -0.181 0.125 -0.076 -0.141 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 565.28 552.28 551.90 553.21 554.99 556.91 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 558.87 559.68 561.03 561.27 561.50 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.458 -0.163 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.74 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.56 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.458 0.047 -0.053 -0.032 -0.006 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.000 -.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 520011 2 0.040 0.024 -0.186 2 520012 2 0.185 0.447 -0.044 3 520021 2 0.061 0.247 -0.103 4 520022 2 0.060 0.211 0.022 5 520031 2 0.213 0.409 0.060 6 520032 2 0.080 0.264 -0.128 7 520041 2 0.229 0.499 -0.311 8 520042 2 0.161 0.382 -0.057 9 520051 2 0.392 0.713 -0.206 10 520052 2 0.321 0.646 -0.191 11 520061 2 0.135 0.373 -0.017 12 520062 2 0.046 0.129 -0.074 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.160 0.362 -0.103 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.114 0.202 0.107 MEDIAN 2 0.148 0.378 -0.089 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.160 0.244 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.040 0.024 -0.311 LOWER HINGE 2 0.061 0.229 -0.189 UPPER HINGE 2 0.221 0.473 -0.031 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.392 0.713 0.060 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 520011 1928 1978 51 1.000 0.232 0.475 3.196 0.274 -0.009 2 520012 1895 1978 84 1.000 0.304 0.493 3.347 0.328 0.000 3 520021 1897 1978 82 1.000 0.302 1.451 6.465 0.288 0.005 4 520022 1890 1978 89 1.000 0.319 0.595 3.351 0.342 0.009 5 520031 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.274 0.074 2.435 0.335 -0.012 6 520032 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.235 0.172 2.571 0.275 -0.015 7 520041 1892 1978 87 1.000 0.285 0.036 2.981 0.343 -0.012 8 520042 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.312 0.874 4.493 0.338 -0.002 9 520051 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.311 -0.041 4.988 0.382 -0.028 10 520052 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.310 0.486 3.795 0.354 -0.008 11 520061 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.333 0.799 3.562 0.352 0.001 12 520062 1897 1978 82 1.000 0.364 0.825 4.739 0.405 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.298 0.520 3.827 0.335 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.038 0.431 1.158 0.040 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.307 0.489 3.456 0.340 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.036 0.689 1.527 0.045 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 51 1.000 0.232 -0.041 2.435 0.274 -0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.279 0.123 3.089 0.308 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 87 1.000 0.315 0.812 4.616 0.353 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 89 1.000 0.364 1.451 6.465 0.405 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.380 0.126 0.015 0.529 3.161 0.182 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.182 SERIES 520011 AND 520052 51 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 520031 AND 520032 83 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 87.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 55. RBAR 0.399 SDEV 0.154 SERR 0.021 EPS 0.888 NSS 11.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1978 89 0.992 0.201 0.512 3.397 0.231 0.033 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.335 0.136 0.083 25 64 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.74 1.00 1.05 1.79 3.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.033 -0.029 -0.103 -0.044 -0.061 0.016 -0.121 0.006 -0.025 -0.107 PACF 0.033 -0.030 -0.101 -0.039 -0.065 0.007 -0.136 -0.001 -0.039 -0.140 95% C.L. 0.212 0.212 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.216 0.219 0.219 0.219 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.002 -0.100 -0.040 -0.066 0.020 -0.124 0.008 -0.026 -0.108 PACF -0.002 0.002 -0.100 -0.041 -0.067 0.009 -0.134 -0.010 -0.032 -0.143 95% C.L. 0.212 0.212 0.212 0.214 0.214 0.215 0.215 0.219 0.219 0.219 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.011 -0.002 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1890 1978 89 0.990 0.223 0.254 3.570 0.207 0.390 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.385 -0.010 -0.169 -0.122 -0.084 -0.035 -0.095 -0.040 -0.066 -0.127 PACF 0.385 -0.187 -0.112 -0.008 -0.064 -0.013 -0.122 0.026 -0.100 -0.132 95% C.L. 0.212 0.241 0.241 0.247 0.249 0.251 0.251 0.252 0.253 0.254 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.196 0.471 -0.200 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.11 MINUTES