RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS022N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS022N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 862 1 Polar-Ural (rezent) DENSITY_MINIMUM PCOB - 862 2 Russia Black Spuce 250 6652-6538 1663 1990 - 862 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 862022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 862041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1890 1891 / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 862052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1891 1893 / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 862062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 862101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1797 1797 / 1855 1856 / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 862121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1862 1862 / 1933 1937 / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 862122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1890 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 862272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1880 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 862291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 862292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 2 GAPS / 1865 1898 / 1916 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 862301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1810 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 862302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1789 1789 / 1945 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 862311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 9 GAPS / 1747 1747 / 1787 1787 / 1822 1826 / 1832 1832 / / 1839 1839 / 1889 1889 / 1893 1893 / 1902 1903 / / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 862321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1916 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 862331 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1858 1859 / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 862352 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1884 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 862361 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 6 GAPS / 1789 1789 / 1888 1888 / 1898 1898 / 1901 1901 / / 1903 1903 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 862362 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 3 GAPS / 1891 1893 / 1902 1902 / 1909 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 862372 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1843 1844 / 1885 1886 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 862011 1847 1990 144 0.327 0.051 1.370 5.247 0.108 0.559 2 862012 1886 1990 105 0.379 0.094 1.079 3.013 0.101 0.859 3 862022 1924 1990 67 0.350 0.044 1.216 4.834 0.117 0.231 4 862041 1739 1990 252 0.379 0.058 -0.121 2.510 0.093 0.663 5 862042 1895 1990 96 0.334 0.068 1.662 6.484 0.093 0.758 6 862051 1909 1990 82 0.277 0.040 0.862 4.520 0.122 0.382 7 862052 1740 1990 251 0.366 0.059 0.148 2.881 0.098 0.675 8 862061 1898 1990 93 0.305 0.032 -0.033 3.028 0.091 0.369 9 862062 1892 1990 99 0.305 0.052 1.459 5.329 0.100 0.636 10 862101 1779 1990 212 0.371 0.055 0.464 3.027 0.109 0.553 11 862112 1840 1990 151 0.281 0.045 0.757 4.851 0.099 0.626 12 862121 1731 1990 260 0.219 0.035 1.063 4.186 0.134 0.356 13 862122 1744 1990 247 0.213 0.032 0.622 2.993 0.126 0.370 14 862271 1820 1990 171 0.307 0.056 1.347 5.917 0.105 0.720 15 862272 1784 1990 207 0.294 0.056 0.808 3.265 0.100 0.760 16 862291 1782 1990 209 0.328 0.046 0.489 4.096 0.095 0.597 17 862292 1832 1990 159 0.343 0.061 1.077 3.954 0.136 0.458 18 862301 1747 1867 121 0.341 0.052 0.953 4.205 0.112 0.460 19 862302 1699 1990 292 0.292 0.040 0.198 2.919 0.110 0.461 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 862311 1720 1990 271 0.294 0.063 0.221 3.091 0.126 0.675 21 862321 1760 1990 231 0.313 0.043 0.831 4.478 0.112 0.398 22 862322 1768 1990 223 0.330 0.047 1.169 6.890 0.111 0.325 23 862331 1747 1990 244 0.370 0.048 0.463 2.891 0.116 0.370 24 862332 1826 1911 86 0.401 0.088 1.644 6.898 0.142 0.439 25 862341 1825 1990 166 0.311 0.062 1.613 6.286 0.108 0.682 26 862342 1823 1990 168 0.291 0.057 1.371 5.052 0.119 0.625 27 862351 1691 1990 300 0.272 0.044 0.477 3.091 0.106 0.606 28 862352 1663 1990 328 0.274 0.057 1.115 4.622 0.127 0.630 29 862361 1723 1990 268 0.374 0.051 0.586 3.388 0.113 0.345 30 862362 1663 1990 328 0.283 0.054 1.013 3.635 0.114 0.671 31 862371 1801 1990 190 0.318 0.064 0.130 2.398 0.099 0.807 32 862372 1812 1990 179 0.271 0.056 1.266 4.115 0.118 0.690 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1663 TO 1990 328 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 190 0.316 0.053 0.854 4.190 0.111 0.555 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.045 0.013 0.506 1.302 0.013 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 198 0.312 0.053 0.908 4.105 0.111 0.602 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 133 0.060 0.014 0.771 1.924 0.019 0.286 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.213 0.032 -0.121 2.398 0.091 0.231 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.287 0.045 0.470 3.027 0.100 0.390 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.347 0.058 1.241 4.951 0.119 0.675 MAXIMUM VALUE 324 0.401 0.094 1.662 6.898 0.142 0.859 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 485 0.365 0.201 0.009 -0.361 3.594 -0.422 0.883 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.422 SERIES 862301 AND 862372 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.883 SERIES 862041 AND 862052 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.78 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1688. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. CORR 1. 3. 10. 45. 91. 136. 171. 276. 276. 351. RBAR 0.846 0.724 0.319 0.292 0.266 0.246 0.194 0.187 0.234 0.409 SDEV 0.000 0.167 0.237 0.199 0.220 0.207 0.246 0.243 0.193 0.199 SERR 0.000 0.097 0.075 0.030 0.023 0.018 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.937 0.934 0.818 0.852 0.860 0.871 0.855 0.855 0.893 0.953 NSS 2.7 5.4 9.6 14.0 16.8 20.6 24.5 25.7 27.2 29.4 YEAR 1945. CORR 406. RBAR 0.244 SDEV 0.191 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.906 NSS 29.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1663 1990 328 0.316 0.035 0.562 3.933 0.081 0.527 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.036 0.025 0.051 44 284 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.25 1.01 1.04 1.29 3.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.57 0.87 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 119. 67. 132. 252. 328. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.525 0.569 0.517 0.444 0.416 0.410 0.419 0.417 0.395 0.366 PACF 0.525 0.405 0.208 0.039 0.028 0.078 0.119 0.097 0.028 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.110 0.138 0.164 0.183 0.195 0.206 0.216 0.225 0.235 0.243 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.442 0.209 0.352 0.229 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 862011 1 0.22651730 0.11495138 0.00000000 0.31423998 2 862012 1 0.34179857 0.03459615 0.00000000 0.28911701 3 862022 1 0.10423141 0.34372276 0.00000000 0.34818709 4 862041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052438 0.44545433 5 862042 1 0.21800576 0.02673756 0.00000000 0.25669682 6 862051 1 0.12551329 0.01791988 0.00000000 0.21177500 7 862052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056699 0.43703189 8 862061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053460 0.33050257 9 862062 1 0.19078773 0.07752516 0.00000000 0.28256094 10 862101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044189 0.41955045 11 862112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000540 0.28100663 12 862121 1 0.09254190 0.03901506 0.00000000 0.20959392 13 862122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010783 0.22701547 14 862271 1 0.15886062 0.01011377 0.00000000 0.23154880 15 862272 1 0.17066510 0.01295418 0.00000000 0.23514932 16 862291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011978 0.34063336 17 862292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035445 0.38320810 18 862301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052292 0.31421736 19 862302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026844 0.33179438 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 862311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051831 0.36639175 21 862321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033408 0.35246080 22 862322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003295 0.32639924 23 862331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001425 0.37128970 24 862332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184509 0.32078522 25 862341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049271 0.35246658 26 862342 1 0.16049233 0.01658787 0.00000000 0.23694311 27 862351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021561 0.30441582 28 862352 1 0.14628828 0.03028343 0.00000000 0.25924540 29 862361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008104 0.38648653 30 862362 1 0.15797685 0.03319683 0.00000000 0.26952538 31 862371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040185 0.35621887 32 862372 1 0.18793440 0.00601677 0.00000000 0.15717816 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 862011 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.115 1.007 4.910 0.107 0.200 2 862012 1886 1990 105 1.000 0.096 0.357 3.019 0.100 0.115 3 862022 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.125 1.368 5.320 0.117 0.205 4 862041 1739 1990 252 1.000 0.115 0.206 3.342 0.094 0.409 5 862042 1895 1990 96 1.000 0.108 1.312 7.950 0.092 0.195 6 862051 1909 1990 82 1.000 0.105 0.968 4.077 0.120 -0.166 7 862052 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.114 0.357 3.026 0.098 0.360 8 862061 1898 1990 93 1.000 0.092 -0.150 2.460 0.090 0.218 9 862062 1892 1990 99 1.000 0.108 0.325 3.197 0.099 0.294 10 862101 1779 1990 212 1.000 0.132 0.397 3.696 0.114 0.331 11 862112 1840 1990 151 1.000 0.161 0.749 4.848 0.099 0.622 12 862121 1731 1990 260 1.000 0.134 1.079 5.316 0.133 0.111 13 862122 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.146 0.685 3.302 0.127 0.339 14 862271 1820 1990 171 1.000 0.134 1.433 6.334 0.105 0.483 15 862272 1784 1990 207 1.000 0.123 1.157 5.357 0.100 0.409 16 862291 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.140 0.756 4.317 0.096 0.575 17 862292 1832 1990 159 1.000 0.167 0.804 3.438 0.127 0.474 18 862301 1747 1867 121 1.000 0.139 0.669 3.399 0.112 0.410 19 862302 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.115 0.428 3.235 0.110 0.237 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 862311 1720 1990 271 0.999 0.163 0.848 3.563 0.127 0.428 21 862321 1760 1990 231 1.000 0.118 0.970 5.575 0.111 0.189 22 862322 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.142 1.137 6.829 0.110 0.323 23 862331 1747 1990 244 1.000 0.131 0.469 2.864 0.115 0.375 24 862332 1826 1911 86 1.001 0.183 1.175 4.669 0.141 0.315 25 862341 1825 1990 166 1.000 0.177 1.510 6.330 0.107 0.624 26 862342 1823 1990 168 1.000 0.129 0.935 3.914 0.118 0.221 27 862351 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.146 0.899 4.222 0.106 0.528 28 862352 1663 1990 328 1.000 0.181 1.520 7.882 0.126 0.509 29 862361 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.137 0.658 3.392 0.114 0.347 30 862362 1663 1990 328 1.000 0.161 1.144 5.039 0.114 0.556 31 862371 1801 1990 190 0.999 0.191 0.390 2.677 0.099 0.779 32 862372 1812 1990 179 1.000 0.156 0.898 4.241 0.116 0.505 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.137 0.827 4.429 0.111 0.360 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.026 0.410 1.454 0.012 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.134 0.873 4.150 0.111 0.353 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.043 0.692 1.996 0.018 0.274 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.999 0.092 -0.150 2.460 0.090 -0.166 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 132 1.000 0.115 0.448 3.322 0.099 0.220 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.159 1.141 5.318 0.118 0.494 MAXIMUM VALUE 328 1.001 0.191 1.520 7.950 0.141 0.779 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 862011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 862012 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 862022 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 862041 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 862042 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 862051 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 862052 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 862061 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 862062 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 862101 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 862112 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 862121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 862122 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 862271 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 862272 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 862291 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 862292 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 862301 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 862302 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 862311 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 862321 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 862322 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 862331 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 862332 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 862341 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 862342 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 862351 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 862352 -67 219 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 862361 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 862362 -67 219 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 862371 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 862372 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 862011 1847 1990 144 0.999 0.107 0.888 4.505 0.107 0.096 2 862012 1886 1990 105 1.000 0.091 0.259 3.045 0.100 0.027 3 862022 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.119 1.255 5.008 0.117 0.142 4 862041 1739 1990 252 1.000 0.108 0.277 3.817 0.094 0.335 5 862042 1895 1990 96 1.000 0.104 1.391 8.111 0.092 0.136 6 862051 1909 1990 82 1.000 0.103 0.864 3.778 0.120 -0.201 7 862052 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.108 0.403 3.326 0.098 0.299 8 862061 1898 1990 93 1.000 0.085 0.086 2.586 0.090 0.074 9 862062 1892 1990 99 0.999 0.095 0.310 3.288 0.099 0.103 10 862101 1779 1990 212 1.000 0.126 0.465 3.485 0.114 0.277 11 862112 1840 1990 151 0.999 0.120 0.949 4.589 0.099 0.378 12 862121 1731 1990 260 1.000 0.125 0.799 4.361 0.133 0.013 13 862122 1744 1990 247 0.999 0.128 0.454 3.219 0.127 0.159 14 862271 1820 1990 171 1.000 0.129 1.439 6.561 0.105 0.444 15 862272 1784 1990 207 0.999 0.106 1.055 5.031 0.100 0.218 16 862291 1782 1990 209 0.999 0.116 0.648 4.033 0.096 0.406 17 862292 1832 1990 159 0.999 0.125 0.880 4.414 0.127 0.087 18 862301 1747 1867 121 0.999 0.123 0.708 4.449 0.112 0.236 19 862302 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.111 0.449 3.271 0.110 0.185 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 862311 1720 1990 271 0.999 0.136 0.864 3.986 0.127 0.224 21 862321 1760 1990 231 1.000 0.114 0.838 5.064 0.111 0.140 22 862322 1768 1990 223 0.999 0.128 1.400 7.047 0.110 0.175 23 862331 1747 1990 244 0.999 0.124 0.519 2.976 0.115 0.314 24 862332 1826 1911 86 0.999 0.148 1.153 5.090 0.141 0.061 25 862341 1825 1990 166 0.999 0.157 1.316 5.574 0.107 0.524 26 862342 1823 1990 168 1.000 0.127 0.972 4.018 0.118 0.201 27 862351 1691 1990 300 0.999 0.131 0.956 4.484 0.106 0.416 28 862352 1663 1990 328 0.997 0.148 1.431 7.517 0.126 0.302 29 862361 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.122 0.766 4.049 0.115 0.176 30 862362 1663 1990 328 0.998 0.129 1.017 4.862 0.114 0.337 31 862371 1801 1990 190 0.999 0.108 0.460 3.352 0.099 0.353 32 862372 1812 1990 179 0.998 0.135 0.835 4.671 0.116 0.366 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 0.999 0.120 0.816 4.486 0.111 0.219 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.001 0.016 0.376 1.317 0.012 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 198 0.999 0.123 0.851 4.387 0.111 0.209 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.001 0.020 0.573 1.601 0.018 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.997 0.085 0.086 2.586 0.090 -0.201 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 132 0.999 0.108 0.463 3.418 0.100 0.120 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.129 1.036 5.020 0.118 0.336 MAXIMUM VALUE 328 1.000 0.157 1.439 8.111 0.141 0.524 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 485 0.261 0.135 0.006 -0.009 4.150 -0.293 0.775 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.293 SERIES 862301 AND 862372 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.775 SERIES 862352 AND 862362 328 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.78 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1688. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. CORR 1. 3. 10. 45. 91. 136. 171. 276. 276. 351. RBAR 0.877 0.650 0.356 0.327 0.296 0.255 0.213 0.206 0.275 0.308 SDEV 0.000 0.203 0.219 0.182 0.188 0.195 0.226 0.204 0.176 0.171 SERR 0.000 0.117 0.069 0.027 0.020 0.017 0.017 0.012 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.951 0.909 0.842 0.871 0.876 0.876 0.869 0.869 0.912 0.929 NSS 2.7 5.4 9.6 14.0 16.8 20.6 24.5 25.7 27.2 29.4 YEAR 1945. CORR 406. RBAR 0.246 SDEV 0.180 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.907 NSS 29.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1663 1990 328 0.996 0.080 0.684 3.665 0.084 0.087 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.280 0.127 -0.036 105 223 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.53 1.00 1.08 1.61 43.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.71 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.087 0.250 0.131 0.112 0.076 0.050 0.105 0.112 0.079 0.019 PACF 0.087 0.244 0.100 0.042 0.015 -0.003 0.072 0.088 0.028 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.110 0.111 0.118 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.125 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.079 0.041 0.239 0.102 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.073 0.273 -0.001 0.125 0.061 -0.007 0.078 0.036 0.062 -0.025 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.073 2 -0.054 0.269 3 -0.063 0.271 0.036 4 -0.065 0.255 0.040 0.058 5 -0.069 0.252 0.022 0.063 0.068 6 -0.066 0.255 0.023 0.075 0.065 -0.050 7 -0.064 0.253 0.020 0.074 0.055 -0.048 0.041 8 -0.066 0.255 0.017 0.070 0.053 -0.061 0.044 0.053 9 -0.068 0.254 0.019 0.069 0.051 -0.061 0.037 0.055 0.028 10 -0.066 0.256 0.021 0.066 0.054 -0.058 0.038 0.066 0.025 -0.044 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2115.49 2115.71 2093.13 2094.71 2095.60 2096.05 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2097.22 2098.67 2099.74 2101.49 2102.86 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.054 0.269 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.72 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.37 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.054 0.272 -0.029 0.075 -0.012 0.021 -0.004 0.006 -0.001 0.0016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 862011 2 0.084 0.071 0.265 2 862012 2 0.024 0.024 0.107 3 862022 2 0.053 0.126 0.124 4 862041 2 0.146 0.272 0.190 5 862042 2 0.032 0.127 0.108 6 862051 2 0.154 -0.146 0.291 7 862052 2 0.093 0.280 0.062 8 862061 2 0.008 0.071 0.048 9 862062 2 0.042 0.090 0.142 10 862101 2 0.153 0.197 0.288 11 862112 2 0.212 0.273 0.280 12 862121 2 0.074 0.010 0.243 13 862122 2 0.129 0.114 0.293 14 862271 2 0.231 0.359 0.196 15 862272 2 0.083 0.179 0.181 16 862291 2 0.216 0.314 0.232 17 862292 2 0.166 0.052 0.399 18 862301 2 0.147 0.184 0.222 19 862302 2 0.071 0.155 0.167 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 862311 2 0.097 0.201 0.101 21 862321 2 0.077 0.108 0.235 22 862322 2 0.127 0.121 0.308 23 862331 2 0.211 0.213 0.326 24 862332 2 0.037 0.053 0.169 25 862341 2 0.289 0.494 0.074 26 862342 2 0.102 0.151 0.248 27 862351 2 0.244 0.307 0.266 28 862352 2 0.200 0.216 0.286 29 862361 2 0.055 0.152 0.141 30 862362 2 0.214 0.231 0.315 31 862371 2 0.160 0.286 0.195 32 862372 2 0.209 0.271 0.261 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.129 0.174 0.211 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.074 0.122 0.087 MEDIAN 2 0.128 0.167 0.227 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.132 0.172 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.008 -0.146 0.048 LOWER HINGE 2 0.072 0.099 0.142 UPPER HINGE 2 0.204 0.271 0.283 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.289 0.494 0.399 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 862011 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.103 0.890 4.455 0.113 -0.021 2 862012 1886 1990 105 1.000 0.091 0.271 3.080 0.101 0.012 3 862022 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.117 1.129 4.480 0.123 0.019 4 862041 1739 1990 252 1.000 0.100 0.406 4.082 0.107 -0.006 5 862042 1895 1990 96 1.000 0.102 1.532 8.225 0.097 -0.006 6 862051 1909 1990 82 1.000 0.096 0.717 3.481 0.103 0.051 7 862052 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.103 0.527 3.497 0.113 0.000 8 862061 1898 1990 93 1.000 0.084 0.124 2.644 0.094 0.001 9 862062 1892 1990 99 1.000 0.093 0.404 3.418 0.103 0.012 10 862101 1779 1990 212 1.000 0.116 0.615 3.616 0.124 -0.001 11 862112 1840 1990 151 1.000 0.107 0.929 4.596 0.111 -0.003 12 862121 1731 1990 260 1.000 0.121 0.788 4.158 0.133 -0.028 13 862122 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.121 0.477 3.439 0.133 -0.044 14 862271 1820 1990 171 1.000 0.113 1.161 6.087 0.126 0.000 15 862272 1784 1990 207 1.000 0.101 1.030 5.319 0.112 -0.012 16 862291 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.103 0.526 4.557 0.113 -0.014 17 862292 1832 1990 159 1.000 0.114 0.678 3.749 0.127 -0.014 18 862301 1747 1867 121 1.000 0.116 0.821 5.425 0.126 -0.047 19 862302 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.107 0.442 3.487 0.120 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 862311 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.132 0.859 4.069 0.142 -0.020 21 862321 1760 1990 231 1.000 0.109 0.779 5.271 0.116 -0.014 22 862322 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.120 1.545 8.133 0.119 -0.022 23 862331 1747 1990 244 1.000 0.111 0.566 3.172 0.126 -0.049 24 862332 1826 1911 86 1.000 0.145 1.184 5.402 0.145 -0.012 25 862341 1825 1990 166 1.000 0.132 1.553 7.620 0.137 -0.010 26 862342 1823 1990 168 1.000 0.120 1.285 5.078 0.125 -0.014 27 862351 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.115 0.647 4.242 0.126 -0.029 28 862352 1663 1990 328 1.000 0.135 1.419 7.589 0.142 -0.057 29 862361 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.119 0.811 4.372 0.124 -0.009 30 862362 1663 1990 328 1.000 0.115 0.837 4.552 0.126 -0.038 31 862371 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.099 0.310 3.187 0.113 -0.001 32 862372 1812 1990 179 1.000 0.121 0.893 5.416 0.133 -0.037 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.112 0.817 4.684 0.120 -0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.013 0.383 1.482 0.013 0.022 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.114 0.799 4.414 0.124 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.018 0.553 1.869 0.014 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.084 0.124 2.644 0.094 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 132 1.000 0.102 0.526 3.492 0.112 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.120 1.080 5.361 0.127 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 328 1.000 0.145 1.553 8.225 0.145 0.051 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 485 0.290 0.116 0.005 0.285 3.823 -0.051 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.051 SERIES 862301 AND 862372 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 862041 AND 862052 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.78 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1688. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. CORR 1. 3. 10. 45. 91. 136. 171. 276. 276. 351. RBAR 0.828 0.601 0.397 0.375 0.338 0.310 0.267 0.229 0.310 0.323 SDEV 0.000 0.225 0.230 0.174 0.145 0.153 0.199 0.177 0.149 0.159 SERR 0.000 0.130 0.073 0.026 0.015 0.013 0.015 0.011 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.929 0.890 0.864 0.893 0.896 0.903 0.899 0.884 0.924 0.933 NSS 2.7 5.4 9.6 14.0 16.8 20.6 24.5 25.7 27.2 29.4 YEAR 1945. CORR 406. RBAR 0.244 SDEV 0.170 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.906 NSS 29.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1663 1990 328 0.996 0.076 0.509 3.492 0.090 -0.155 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.287 0.124 -0.041 112 216 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.60 1.00 1.11 1.71 59.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.60 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.154 -0.030 0.052 -0.001 -0.018 -0.026 0.057 0.092 0.024 -0.022 PACF -0.154 -0.055 0.040 0.012 -0.013 -0.034 0.047 0.112 0.066 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.110 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.027 -0.155 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.007 0.040 0.001 -0.018 -0.015 0.072 0.109 0.041 -0.017 PACF 0.003 0.007 0.040 0.001 -0.018 -0.017 0.073 0.111 0.042 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.113 0.113 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.003 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1663 1990 328 0.996 0.078 0.622 3.477 0.088 -0.057 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.057 0.277 0.008 0.076 0.002 0.027 0.073 0.093 0.060 -0.008 PACF -0.057 0.274 0.038 0.002 -0.007 0.006 0.080 0.100 0.032 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.110 0.111 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.080 -0.041 0.275 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES