RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS023L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS023L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 863 1 Sidorovsk WIDTH_LATE LASI - 863 2 Russia Siberian larch 15 6640-8220 1750 1990 - 863 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 863022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 863042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1838 1841 / 1960 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 863071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 863091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1956 1961 / 1969 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 863101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 863140 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1986 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 0.175 0.072 0.629 2.783 0.338 0.434 2 863012 1858 1990 133 0.185 0.091 1.355 5.499 0.302 0.566 3 863021 1762 1881 120 0.118 0.051 1.100 4.548 0.333 0.463 4 863022 1768 1990 223 0.140 0.120 4.295 28.139 0.473 0.374 5 863031 1876 1990 115 0.233 0.100 1.088 4.973 0.283 0.505 6 863032 1893 1990 98 0.268 0.098 0.259 3.024 0.262 0.586 7 863041 1814 1990 177 0.183 0.112 1.947 7.713 0.428 0.455 8 863042 1774 1990 217 0.159 0.083 1.221 5.423 0.429 0.422 9 863051 1786 1990 205 0.124 0.062 1.125 4.161 0.327 0.608 10 863052 1794 1990 197 0.129 0.083 1.190 3.904 0.351 0.712 11 863061 1807 1990 184 0.178 0.087 0.925 4.703 0.385 0.375 12 863062 1777 1990 214 0.138 0.060 1.929 11.857 0.395 0.210 13 863071 1779 1990 212 0.158 0.102 1.208 4.107 0.389 0.635 14 863072 1786 1990 205 0.116 0.060 1.249 5.135 0.403 0.514 15 863081 1881 1990 110 0.180 0.096 0.884 3.250 0.286 0.686 16 863082 1891 1990 100 0.174 0.066 0.068 2.254 0.294 0.542 17 863091 1805 1990 186 0.143 0.146 2.039 7.474 0.389 0.813 18 863092 1804 1990 187 0.104 0.090 1.930 6.783 0.356 0.756 19 863101 1766 1990 225 0.136 0.107 1.586 5.121 0.342 0.679 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 0.119 0.089 1.484 5.138 0.351 0.623 21 863111 1750 1990 241 0.159 0.127 2.599 11.375 0.358 0.520 22 863112 1754 1990 237 0.130 0.080 1.703 5.851 0.385 0.538 23 863121 1800 1990 191 0.167 0.101 0.640 3.130 0.431 0.573 24 863122 1798 2100 303 0.177 0.103 1.115 4.227 0.352 0.678 25 863132 1878 1990 113 0.226 0.129 0.929 3.372 0.314 0.726 26 863140 1760 1990 231 0.149 0.092 1.111 3.724 0.326 0.662 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1750 TO 2100 351 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.160 0.093 1.370 6.064 0.357 0.564 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.039 0.023 0.818 5.069 0.052 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.158 0.091 1.199 4.838 0.352 0.569 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.048 0.023 0.773 2.127 0.063 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.104 0.051 0.068 2.254 0.262 0.210 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.130 0.080 0.929 3.724 0.326 0.463 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 220 0.178 0.103 1.703 5.851 0.389 0.678 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 0.268 0.146 4.295 28.139 0.473 0.813 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 319 0.490 0.189 0.011 -0.379 2.874 -0.071 0.897 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.071 SERIES 863032 AND 863122 98 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.897 SERIES 863091 AND 863092 186 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.15 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.40 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 45. 153. 153. 171. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.363 0.542 0.595 0.517 0.449 0.450 0.418 SDEV 0.224 0.154 0.163 0.239 0.174 0.190 0.205 SERR 0.033 0.012 0.013 0.018 0.011 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.903 0.957 0.967 0.961 0.953 0.953 0.947 NSS 16.4 19.0 20.2 22.9 24.7 25.0 25.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 0.171 0.091 1.473 5.637 0.305 0.692 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.050 -0.024 0.050 113 238 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.40 1.00 1.12 2.51 75.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.65 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 100. 98. 123. 223. 303. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.690 0.679 0.632 0.642 0.645 0.613 0.559 0.546 0.532 0.474 PACF 0.690 0.387 0.174 0.195 0.178 0.058 -0.051 0.004 0.016 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.107 0.149 0.181 0.205 0.226 0.246 0.263 0.276 0.288 0.299 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.604 0.278 0.232 0.066 0.144 0.178 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 863011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105151 0.24031587 2 863012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079003 0.23834586 3 863021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052143 0.08628712 4 863022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023451 0.16566452 5 863031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050627 0.26214644 6 863032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214933 0.37414685 7 863041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083413 0.25728813 8 863042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034921 0.19818750 9 863051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068627 0.19488092 10 863052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097718 0.22582720 11 863061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042242 0.21744297 12 863062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016148 0.15520996 13 863071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095151 0.25864238 14 863072 1 0.15225017 0.00824502 0.00000000 0.04236047 15 863081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173604 0.27616847 16 863082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00151185 0.25004849 17 863091 1 0.49581209 0.02356317 0.00000000 0.02874954 18 863092 1 0.26698568 0.01378003 0.00000000 0.00936877 19 863101 1 0.34072119 0.01583032 0.00000000 0.04133679 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 863102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097898 0.22933136 21 863111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023534 0.18793672 22 863112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027432 0.16264428 23 863121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00119318 0.28145659 24 863122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008244 0.16439906 25 863132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00273970 0.38262326 26 863140 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098197 0.25998676 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 0.996 0.337 0.522 2.520 0.336 0.194 2 863012 1858 1990 133 0.994 0.439 1.136 4.603 0.301 0.501 3 863021 1762 1881 120 1.002 0.416 1.309 5.750 0.330 0.392 4 863022 1768 1990 223 0.996 0.846 4.403 29.385 0.472 0.365 5 863031 1876 1990 115 0.999 0.415 1.159 5.761 0.281 0.481 6 863032 1893 1990 98 0.994 0.284 0.186 3.348 0.259 0.365 7 863041 1814 1990 177 0.995 0.493 1.432 6.561 0.426 0.315 8 863042 1774 1990 217 0.998 0.503 1.306 6.004 0.423 0.401 9 863051 1786 1990 205 1.003 0.345 0.828 4.970 0.326 0.260 10 863052 1794 1990 197 0.999 0.412 0.911 3.976 0.351 0.382 11 863061 1807 1990 184 0.997 0.473 1.120 5.328 0.383 0.338 12 863062 1777 1990 214 0.999 0.435 2.077 12.871 0.393 0.199 13 863071 1779 1990 212 0.989 0.458 0.960 4.469 0.387 0.409 14 863072 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.401 0.825 5.962 0.401 0.174 15 863081 1881 1990 110 0.985 0.377 0.653 3.930 0.285 0.483 16 863082 1891 1990 100 0.993 0.285 0.237 3.378 0.293 0.246 17 863091 1805 1990 186 0.985 0.368 0.576 3.518 0.382 0.184 18 863092 1804 1990 187 0.998 0.408 0.554 3.440 0.355 0.406 19 863101 1766 1990 225 1.003 0.424 1.185 5.911 0.336 0.393 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 1.085 0.538 1.108 4.400 0.353 0.550 21 863111 1750 1990 241 0.996 0.775 2.626 11.684 0.357 0.507 22 863112 1754 1990 237 0.996 0.573 1.630 5.666 0.383 0.486 23 863121 1800 1990 191 0.972 0.433 0.812 4.199 0.430 0.269 24 863122 1798 2100 303 1.000 0.575 1.018 3.960 0.351 0.664 25 863132 1878 1990 113 0.986 0.352 0.552 2.921 0.313 0.445 26 863140 1760 1990 231 1.010 0.415 0.650 3.041 0.322 0.455 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 184 0.999 0.453 1.145 6.060 0.355 0.379 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.019 0.129 0.851 5.322 0.052 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.997 0.420 0.989 4.536 0.352 0.393 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.005 0.116 0.656 2.393 0.065 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.972 0.284 0.186 2.520 0.259 0.174 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.994 0.377 0.650 3.518 0.322 0.269 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.493 1.306 5.911 0.387 0.481 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 1.085 0.846 4.403 29.385 0.472 0.664 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 863011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 863012 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 863021 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 863022 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 863031 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 863032 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 863041 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 863042 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 863051 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 863052 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 863061 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 863062 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 863071 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 863072 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 863081 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 863082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 863091 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 863092 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 863101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 863102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 863111 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 863112 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 863121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 863122 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 863132 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 863140 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 0.998 0.305 0.179 2.281 0.336 0.090 2 863012 1858 1990 133 0.993 0.320 0.761 4.775 0.301 0.238 3 863021 1762 1881 120 0.997 0.387 0.985 4.468 0.331 0.348 4 863022 1768 1990 223 0.993 0.600 3.342 20.903 0.473 0.226 5 863031 1876 1990 115 0.996 0.339 1.322 5.902 0.282 0.267 6 863032 1893 1990 98 0.997 0.245 -0.171 3.442 0.260 0.197 7 863041 1814 1990 177 0.987 0.429 0.945 4.607 0.426 0.215 8 863042 1774 1990 217 0.996 0.463 1.014 4.804 0.423 0.324 9 863051 1786 1990 205 0.997 0.329 0.724 4.545 0.326 0.197 10 863052 1794 1990 197 0.993 0.376 0.864 4.601 0.351 0.266 11 863061 1807 1990 184 0.992 0.389 0.768 5.098 0.383 0.189 12 863062 1777 1990 214 0.996 0.391 1.712 10.615 0.394 0.106 13 863071 1779 1990 212 0.994 0.408 0.513 3.631 0.387 0.293 14 863072 1786 1990 205 0.998 0.393 0.722 5.477 0.401 0.161 15 863081 1881 1990 110 0.985 0.266 0.173 3.165 0.284 0.138 16 863082 1891 1990 100 0.998 0.244 -0.308 3.139 0.293 -0.008 17 863091 1805 1990 186 0.998 0.361 0.436 3.247 0.382 0.139 18 863092 1804 1990 187 0.998 0.401 0.542 3.409 0.355 0.390 19 863101 1766 1990 225 0.995 0.408 1.219 5.940 0.335 0.359 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 0.989 0.397 1.131 5.591 0.352 0.296 21 863111 1750 1990 241 0.996 0.499 1.638 6.990 0.358 0.338 22 863112 1754 1990 237 0.993 0.451 1.120 4.262 0.384 0.288 23 863121 1800 1990 191 0.998 0.384 0.420 3.601 0.430 0.110 24 863122 1798 2100 303 0.966 0.437 0.734 4.071 0.352 0.466 25 863132 1878 1990 113 0.996 0.329 0.451 2.838 0.312 0.360 26 863140 1760 1990 231 0.993 0.385 0.647 3.140 0.322 0.371 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 184 0.994 0.382 0.842 5.175 0.355 0.245 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.007 0.077 0.700 3.613 0.052 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.996 0.388 0.747 4.506 0.352 0.252 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.005 0.079 0.669 2.068 0.065 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.966 0.244 -0.308 2.281 0.260 -0.008 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.993 0.329 0.451 3.409 0.322 0.161 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 0.997 0.408 1.120 5.477 0.387 0.338 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 0.998 0.600 3.342 20.903 0.473 0.466 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 319 0.392 0.159 0.009 -0.573 2.921 -0.140 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.140 SERIES 863032 AND 863091 98 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 863051 AND 863052 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.15 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.40 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 45. 153. 153. 171. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.411 0.564 0.578 0.532 0.465 0.377 0.244 SDEV 0.173 0.139 0.130 0.143 0.166 0.202 0.178 SERR 0.026 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.920 0.961 0.965 0.963 0.956 0.938 0.890 NSS 16.4 19.0 20.2 22.9 24.7 25.0 25.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 1.019 0.345 0.602 4.088 0.304 0.351 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.077 0.100 82 269 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.80 1.00 1.11 1.92 13.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.350 0.398 0.311 0.292 0.265 0.223 0.184 0.170 0.163 0.076 PACF 0.350 0.314 0.133 0.092 0.068 0.022 -0.006 0.010 0.027 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.107 0.119 0.133 0.141 0.148 0.153 0.157 0.160 0.162 0.163 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.235 0.185 0.256 0.115 0.094 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.176 0.300 0.168 0.060 0.082 0.074 0.006 0.011 0.019 -0.090 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.176 2 0.127 0.278 3 0.102 0.267 0.090 4 0.107 0.283 0.096 -0.059 5 0.108 0.282 0.093 -0.060 0.011 6 0.107 0.285 0.088 -0.076 0.005 0.055 7 0.109 0.285 0.086 -0.073 0.014 0.058 -0.033 8 0.108 0.287 0.086 -0.075 0.017 0.067 -0.030 -0.031 9 0.109 0.287 0.085 -0.076 0.018 0.066 -0.036 -0.034 0.021 10 0.111 0.284 0.081 -0.069 0.020 0.058 -0.028 -0.006 0.031 -0.095 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3112.62 3103.62 3077.35 3076.47 3077.23 3079.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3080.13 3081.75 3083.41 3085.25 3084.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.102 0.267 0.090 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.32 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.76 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.102 0.277 0.146 0.098 0.074 0.047 0.033 0.023 0.015 0.0106 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 863011 3 0.020 0.079 0.091 0.037 2 863012 3 0.138 0.189 0.058 0.230 3 863021 3 0.139 0.296 0.131 0.027 4 863022 3 0.103 0.208 0.199 -0.123 5 863031 3 0.091 0.228 0.096 0.078 6 863032 3 0.042 0.194 0.033 -0.048 7 863041 3 0.137 0.137 0.298 0.043 8 863042 3 0.138 0.269 0.147 0.041 9 863051 3 0.102 0.129 0.208 0.110 10 863052 3 0.139 0.177 0.187 0.152 11 863061 3 0.123 0.118 0.273 0.067 12 863062 3 0.037 0.084 0.149 0.044 13 863071 3 0.120 0.231 0.163 0.059 14 863072 3 0.136 0.067 0.290 0.146 15 863081 3 0.037 0.115 0.124 0.044 16 863082 3 0.010 -0.008 0.025 -0.015 17 863091 3 0.106 0.114 0.276 -0.045 18 863092 3 0.173 0.330 0.146 0.011 19 863101 3 0.195 0.241 0.204 0.132 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 863102 3 0.150 0.206 0.234 0.069 21 863111 3 0.164 0.245 0.190 0.096 22 863112 3 0.174 0.178 0.250 0.131 23 863121 3 0.061 0.095 0.211 -0.035 24 863122 3 0.339 0.243 0.320 0.147 25 863132 3 0.176 0.286 0.190 0.030 26 863140 3 0.259 0.205 0.335 0.096 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.127 0.179 0.186 0.059 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.073 0.081 0.085 0.076 MEDIAN 3 0.137 0.192 0.190 0.051 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.073 0.126 0.119 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.010 -0.008 0.025 -0.123 LOWER HINGE 3 0.091 0.115 0.131 0.027 UPPER HINGE 3 0.164 0.241 0.250 0.110 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.339 0.330 0.335 0.230 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 1.000 0.303 0.118 2.293 0.349 0.000 2 863012 1858 1990 133 1.000 0.300 0.287 4.042 0.343 -0.035 3 863021 1762 1881 120 1.000 0.359 0.726 5.085 0.391 -0.002 4 863022 1768 1990 223 1.001 0.569 3.298 23.338 0.532 -0.013 5 863031 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.323 1.365 5.636 0.312 0.002 6 863032 1893 1990 98 1.000 0.240 -0.056 3.446 0.277 0.001 7 863041 1814 1990 177 1.000 0.398 0.778 4.039 0.442 -0.003 8 863042 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.432 0.987 5.120 0.476 0.003 9 863051 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.313 0.718 4.944 0.343 -0.007 10 863052 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.348 0.695 4.405 0.383 0.002 11 863061 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.365 1.019 7.341 0.392 -0.007 12 863062 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.384 1.986 12.934 0.400 -0.002 13 863071 1779 1990 212 1.001 0.382 0.421 4.012 0.426 0.003 14 863072 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.365 0.551 4.633 0.408 0.000 15 863081 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.261 0.295 3.245 0.296 0.001 16 863082 1891 1990 100 1.000 0.244 -0.286 3.054 0.292 -0.001 17 863091 1805 1990 186 1.000 0.343 0.316 3.449 0.402 0.007 18 863092 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.365 0.555 3.913 0.422 -0.001 19 863101 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.366 1.197 5.842 0.373 -0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 1.000 0.366 0.869 5.405 0.384 -0.001 21 863111 1750 1990 241 1.000 0.456 2.083 10.279 0.413 0.003 22 863112 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.409 1.176 4.793 0.418 -0.010 23 863121 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.373 0.397 3.835 0.445 -0.003 24 863122 1798 2100 303 1.001 0.354 1.169 6.710 0.370 -0.010 25 863132 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.300 0.449 2.743 0.346 0.003 26 863140 1760 1990 231 1.000 0.332 0.545 3.396 0.354 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 184 1.000 0.356 0.833 5.690 0.384 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.068 0.745 4.276 0.058 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.362 0.707 4.519 0.387 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.000 0.069 0.772 2.187 0.072 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.240 -0.286 2.293 0.277 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.313 0.397 3.449 0.346 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.382 1.169 5.636 0.418 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 1.001 0.569 3.298 23.338 0.532 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 319 0.398 0.153 0.009 -0.729 3.193 -0.112 0.733 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.112 SERIES 863032 AND 863091 98 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.733 SERIES 863051 AND 863052 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.15 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.40 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 45. 153. 153. 171. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.469 0.549 0.561 0.522 0.475 0.417 0.264 SDEV 0.118 0.125 0.121 0.138 0.158 0.181 0.164 SERR 0.018 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.935 0.958 0.963 0.962 0.957 0.947 0.900 NSS 16.4 19.0 20.2 22.9 24.7 25.0 25.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 1.005 0.291 0.456 4.506 0.326 -0.021 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.207 0.103 0.065 84 267 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.77 1.00 1.08 1.85 11.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.021 -0.002 -0.014 0.067 0.074 0.059 0.012 0.032 0.056 -0.093 PACF -0.021 -0.002 -0.015 0.066 0.077 0.063 0.018 0.031 0.050 -0.105 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.068 0.077 0.062 0.014 0.034 0.056 -0.090 PACF 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.068 0.077 0.062 0.015 0.030 0.047 -0.105 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.005 0.001 0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 1.005 0.315 0.538 4.382 0.310 0.214 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.213 0.344 0.222 0.221 0.195 0.167 0.117 0.102 0.116 0.012 PACF 0.213 0.313 0.122 0.082 0.068 0.035 -0.016 -0.011 0.037 -0.079 95% C.L. 0.107 0.111 0.123 0.127 0.132 0.135 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.140 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.162 0.098 0.271 0.113 0.083 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES