RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS023N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS023N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 863 1 Sidorovsk DENSITY_MINIMUM LASI - 863 2 Russia Siberian larch 15 6640-8220 1750 1990 - 863 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 863011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 863021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1764 1768 / 1857 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 863022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 863031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 863042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 863062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1931 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 863071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 863081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 863091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 863112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1984 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 0.288 0.023 0.096 2.451 0.059 0.597 2 863012 1858 1990 133 0.266 0.029 0.930 3.795 0.057 0.733 3 863021 1762 1881 120 0.270 0.024 1.048 5.634 0.077 0.297 4 863022 1768 1990 223 0.263 0.033 0.368 4.309 0.094 0.435 5 863031 1876 1990 115 0.260 0.038 0.997 3.662 0.080 0.773 6 863032 1893 1990 98 0.246 0.020 0.730 3.536 0.072 0.350 7 863041 1814 1990 177 0.257 0.035 1.626 9.780 0.109 0.268 8 863042 1774 1990 217 0.258 0.033 0.261 3.489 0.094 0.517 9 863051 1786 1990 205 0.250 0.038 1.518 6.678 0.102 0.436 10 863052 1794 1990 197 0.229 0.040 3.809 31.363 0.129 0.122 11 863061 1807 1990 184 0.229 0.028 0.376 3.401 0.102 0.336 12 863062 1777 1990 214 0.266 0.025 1.096 5.236 0.090 0.224 13 863071 1779 1990 212 0.255 0.032 1.929 8.574 0.097 0.225 14 863072 1786 1990 205 0.260 0.027 1.974 10.057 0.087 0.055 15 863081 1881 1990 110 0.290 0.029 1.261 5.820 0.099 0.117 16 863082 1891 1990 100 0.266 0.027 0.413 4.950 0.086 0.305 17 863091 1805 1990 186 0.263 0.037 1.970 8.536 0.099 0.337 18 863092 1804 1990 187 0.254 0.037 3.157 20.496 0.100 0.164 19 863101 1766 1990 225 0.246 0.030 0.649 4.242 0.096 0.403 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 0.248 0.030 3.309 22.697 0.096 0.134 21 863111 1750 1990 241 0.244 0.027 1.342 6.382 0.074 0.549 22 863112 1754 1990 237 0.256 0.034 1.845 8.750 0.092 0.471 23 863121 1800 1990 191 0.272 0.045 1.495 5.914 0.122 0.272 24 863122 1798 2100 303 0.250 0.044 1.308 7.247 0.121 0.340 25 863132 1878 1990 113 0.262 0.017 -0.068 2.669 0.064 0.246 26 863140 1760 1990 231 0.242 0.032 2.050 15.217 0.088 0.416 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1750 TO 2100 351 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.257 0.031 1.365 8.265 0.092 0.351 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.014 0.007 0.980 6.923 0.018 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.257 0.031 1.284 5.867 0.094 0.336 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.018 0.010 1.280 4.955 0.020 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.229 0.017 -0.068 2.451 0.057 0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 118 0.248 0.027 0.649 3.795 0.080 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 221 0.266 0.037 1.929 8.750 0.100 0.436 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 0.290 0.045 3.809 31.363 0.129 0.773 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 319 0.183 0.161 0.009 -0.274 3.142 -0.276 0.609 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.276 SERIES 863031 AND 863121 115 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.609 SERIES 863051 AND 863052 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.15 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.40 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 45. 153. 153. 171. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.291 0.210 0.185 0.221 0.209 0.243 0.228 SDEV 0.194 0.266 0.188 0.194 0.195 0.217 0.203 SERR 0.029 0.021 0.015 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.871 0.834 0.821 0.867 0.867 0.889 0.880 NSS 16.4 19.0 20.2 22.9 24.7 25.0 25.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 0.261 0.021 0.913 3.846 0.063 0.450 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.278 -0.224 0.079 91 260 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.49 1.00 1.05 1.54 8.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.81 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 100. 98. 123. 223. 303. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.449 0.497 0.438 0.399 0.404 0.389 0.369 0.354 0.376 0.384 PACF 0.449 0.371 0.190 0.096 0.112 0.094 0.055 0.039 0.090 0.098 95% C.L. 0.107 0.126 0.147 0.161 0.172 0.183 0.192 0.200 0.207 0.214 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.362 0.169 0.265 0.129 0.043 0.095 0.097 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 863011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017146 0.27714035 2 863012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007478 0.26123035 3 863021 1 0.05842340 0.02932700 0.00000000 0.25463820 4 863022 1 0.03336640 0.00650782 0.00000000 0.24557732 5 863031 1 0.12881780 0.05228879 0.00000000 0.23925836 6 863032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032311 0.22992426 7 863041 1 0.05747557 0.09670094 0.00000000 0.25375095 8 863042 1 0.06126604 0.02720246 0.00000000 0.24670283 9 863051 1 0.05352223 0.03730665 0.00000000 0.24328120 10 863052 1 0.06259073 0.05144945 0.00000000 0.22332259 11 863061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013983 0.21570741 12 863062 1 0.06694311 0.12474281 0.00000000 0.26301858 13 863071 1 0.03700173 0.04761883 0.00000000 0.25096405 14 863072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002318 0.25761262 15 863081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020909 0.27890235 16 863082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016790 0.27487880 17 863091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019331 0.24542177 18 863092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021251 0.23392789 19 863101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013858 0.23069604 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 863102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008512 0.23846012 21 863111 1 0.02090170 0.00720270 0.00000000 0.23393418 22 863112 1 0.07021132 0.00682072 0.00000000 0.22053266 23 863121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042746 0.23090108 24 863122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021603 0.21686643 25 863132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006421 0.26551834 26 863140 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008843 0.23169057 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 1.000 0.076 0.000 2.523 0.058 0.534 2 863012 1858 1990 133 1.000 0.109 0.944 4.006 0.056 0.717 3 863021 1762 1881 120 1.000 0.074 0.838 5.977 0.076 0.029 4 863022 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.122 0.620 5.384 0.094 0.404 5 863031 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.085 0.140 2.445 0.078 0.329 6 863032 1893 1990 98 1.000 0.071 0.719 3.524 0.072 0.191 7 863041 1814 1990 177 1.000 0.130 1.363 8.219 0.109 0.213 8 863042 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.115 -0.038 3.015 0.094 0.428 9 863051 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.146 2.001 9.324 0.101 0.374 10 863052 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.170 4.694 41.989 0.129 0.031 11 863061 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.119 0.704 4.630 0.102 0.279 12 863062 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.089 0.803 4.289 0.089 0.139 13 863071 1779 1990 212 1.000 0.125 2.262 10.471 0.096 0.190 14 863072 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.103 1.936 9.776 0.087 0.055 15 863081 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.095 1.172 5.168 0.096 0.095 16 863082 1891 1990 100 1.000 0.098 0.399 5.748 0.085 0.259 17 863091 1805 1990 186 1.000 0.133 1.957 7.919 0.100 0.298 18 863092 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.139 4.287 34.418 0.100 0.077 19 863101 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.116 0.761 4.110 0.096 0.360 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 1.000 0.119 2.940 19.944 0.096 0.104 21 863111 1750 1990 241 1.000 0.108 1.188 5.755 0.074 0.528 22 863112 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.119 1.705 8.012 0.092 0.363 23 863121 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.138 2.015 9.767 0.122 -0.006 24 863122 1798 2100 303 1.000 0.161 2.238 13.916 0.121 0.153 25 863132 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.065 0.016 2.620 0.064 0.232 26 863140 1760 1990 231 1.000 0.129 1.756 12.778 0.088 0.402 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 184 1.000 0.114 1.439 9.451 0.091 0.261 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.027 1.200 9.451 0.018 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.118 1.180 5.866 0.094 0.246 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.000 0.035 1.297 5.666 0.022 0.270 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.065 -0.038 2.445 0.056 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.095 0.704 4.110 0.078 0.104 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.130 2.001 9.776 0.100 0.374 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 1.000 0.170 4.694 41.989 0.129 0.717 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 863011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 863012 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 863021 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 863022 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 863031 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 863032 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 863041 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 863042 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 863051 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 863052 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 863061 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 863062 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 863071 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 863072 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 863081 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 863082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 863091 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 863092 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 863101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 863102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 863111 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 863112 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 863121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 863122 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 863132 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 863140 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 1.000 0.065 -0.039 2.426 0.059 0.380 2 863012 1858 1990 133 0.998 0.072 0.948 4.659 0.057 0.441 3 863021 1762 1881 120 1.000 0.073 0.834 5.967 0.076 0.012 4 863022 1768 1990 223 0.999 0.100 0.454 5.838 0.094 0.160 5 863031 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.083 0.176 2.452 0.078 0.291 6 863032 1893 1990 98 1.000 0.068 0.750 3.638 0.072 0.127 7 863041 1814 1990 177 1.000 0.125 1.467 8.648 0.109 0.155 8 863042 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.110 -0.076 2.927 0.094 0.371 9 863051 1786 1990 205 0.999 0.116 1.159 6.029 0.102 0.138 10 863052 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.156 3.754 30.136 0.129 -0.051 11 863061 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.113 0.986 6.426 0.102 0.185 12 863062 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.085 0.782 4.109 0.089 0.068 13 863071 1779 1990 212 1.000 0.123 2.230 10.249 0.096 0.180 14 863072 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.100 2.057 10.098 0.087 -0.007 15 863081 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.093 1.098 4.740 0.096 0.067 16 863082 1891 1990 100 0.999 0.085 0.898 6.924 0.085 0.040 17 863091 1805 1990 186 1.000 0.117 1.469 6.823 0.100 0.161 18 863092 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.137 4.211 33.430 0.100 0.061 19 863101 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.106 0.710 4.520 0.096 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 1.000 0.113 2.795 17.556 0.096 0.023 21 863111 1750 1990 241 1.000 0.105 1.149 5.579 0.074 0.510 22 863112 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.117 1.768 8.446 0.092 0.335 23 863121 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.133 1.855 9.311 0.122 -0.057 24 863122 1798 2100 303 0.999 0.151 2.735 18.022 0.121 0.040 25 863132 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.057 -0.219 2.761 0.064 0.021 26 863140 1760 1990 231 0.999 0.116 2.210 17.560 0.088 0.274 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 184 1.000 0.105 1.391 9.203 0.091 0.160 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.026 1.114 8.002 0.018 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.108 1.123 6.227 0.094 0.146 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.000 0.032 1.306 5.578 0.022 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.998 0.057 -0.219 2.426 0.057 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.085 0.750 4.520 0.078 0.040 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.117 2.057 10.098 0.100 0.274 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 1.000 0.156 4.211 33.430 0.129 0.510 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 319 0.215 0.117 0.007 0.093 3.585 -0.097 0.593 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.097 SERIES 863091 AND 863132 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.593 SERIES 863052 AND 863140 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.15 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.40 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 45. 153. 153. 171. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.249 0.213 0.203 0.237 0.237 0.256 0.238 SDEV 0.209 0.252 0.183 0.176 0.167 0.173 0.183 SERR 0.031 0.020 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.845 0.837 0.838 0.877 0.885 0.896 0.887 NSS 16.4 19.0 20.2 22.9 24.7 25.0 25.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 0.996 0.061 0.234 3.061 0.065 0.072 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.145 0.110 -0.054 101 250 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.82 1.01 1.10 1.92 17.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.82 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.072 0.186 0.063 0.009 0.050 -0.054 0.022 -0.011 0.009 0.042 PACF 0.072 0.182 0.041 -0.031 0.033 -0.060 0.015 0.004 0.010 0.041 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.040 0.059 0.184 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.078 0.165 -0.051 0.028 0.064 -0.117 0.048 -0.043 0.060 -0.007 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.078 2 -0.066 0.159 3 -0.061 0.158 -0.028 4 -0.061 0.158 -0.028 -0.004 5 -0.061 0.160 -0.041 0.001 0.081 6 -0.052 0.161 -0.046 0.020 0.073 -0.118 7 -0.050 0.160 -0.046 0.021 0.071 -0.117 0.014 8 -0.050 0.160 -0.047 0.021 0.071 -0.118 0.014 0.005 9 -0.050 0.160 -0.042 0.018 0.071 -0.116 0.008 0.007 0.036 10 -0.051 0.160 -0.042 0.019 0.070 -0.116 0.009 0.005 0.036 0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2021.96 2021.80 2014.77 2016.49 2018.49 2018.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2015.31 2017.24 2019.23 2020.78 2022.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.066 0.159 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.14 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.066 0.164 -0.021 0.027 -0.005 0.005 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 863011 2 0.187 0.299 0.216 2 863012 2 0.228 0.418 0.106 3 863021 2 0.010 0.012 0.034 4 863022 2 0.058 0.144 0.125 5 863031 2 0.093 0.283 0.057 6 863032 2 0.042 0.107 0.161 7 863041 2 0.032 0.167 -0.074 8 863042 2 0.186 0.302 0.189 9 863051 2 0.048 0.119 0.147 10 863052 2 0.018 -0.047 0.081 11 863061 2 0.091 0.142 0.235 12 863062 2 0.045 0.056 0.188 13 863071 2 0.082 0.142 0.216 14 863072 2 0.017 -0.006 0.102 15 863081 2 0.078 0.050 0.246 16 863082 2 0.028 0.037 0.131 17 863091 2 0.067 0.139 0.191 18 863092 2 0.024 0.052 0.140 19 863101 2 0.124 0.198 0.171 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 863102 2 0.003 0.023 0.016 21 863111 2 0.318 0.386 0.246 22 863112 2 0.216 0.238 0.290 23 863121 2 0.004 -0.056 0.023 24 863122 2 0.054 0.034 0.130 25 863132 2 0.012 0.024 -0.103 26 863140 2 0.164 0.201 0.273 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.086 0.133 0.136 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.083 0.128 0.100 MEDIAN 2 0.056 0.129 0.143 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.100 0.166 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.003 -0.056 -0.103 LOWER HINGE 2 0.024 0.034 0.081 UPPER HINGE 2 0.124 0.201 0.216 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.318 0.418 0.290 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 863011 1868 1990 123 1.000 0.059 -0.046 2.704 0.067 -0.011 2 863012 1858 1990 133 1.000 0.063 0.707 4.032 0.069 -0.026 3 863021 1762 1881 120 1.000 0.073 0.825 5.904 0.077 -0.003 4 863022 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.098 0.665 7.118 0.102 -0.019 5 863031 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.079 0.162 2.608 0.089 0.003 6 863032 1893 1990 98 1.000 0.067 0.645 3.330 0.076 0.003 7 863041 1814 1990 177 1.000 0.123 1.332 7.962 0.117 -0.003 8 863042 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.101 -0.146 3.294 0.111 -0.026 9 863051 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.113 1.215 6.614 0.109 -0.009 10 863052 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.155 3.710 29.650 0.126 0.008 11 863061 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.108 1.172 7.860 0.109 -0.013 12 863062 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.083 0.773 4.427 0.091 -0.013 13 863071 1779 1990 212 1.000 0.118 2.320 11.160 0.105 0.016 14 863072 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.099 1.966 9.490 0.089 0.008 15 863081 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.090 0.900 4.236 0.093 0.029 16 863082 1891 1990 100 1.000 0.084 0.925 6.902 0.088 -0.015 17 863091 1805 1990 186 1.000 0.113 1.525 7.279 0.105 0.017 18 863092 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.135 4.478 36.790 0.102 0.005 19 863101 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.102 0.794 5.514 0.107 -0.035 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 863102 1767 1990 224 1.000 0.113 2.785 17.309 0.097 0.001 21 863111 1750 1990 241 1.000 0.088 1.266 6.545 0.090 -0.032 22 863112 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.105 1.896 10.193 0.106 -0.055 23 863121 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.133 1.838 9.154 0.118 0.001 24 863122 1798 2100 303 1.000 0.149 2.884 19.035 0.125 -0.024 25 863132 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.057 -0.192 2.627 0.065 -0.004 26 863140 1760 1990 231 1.000 0.107 2.334 19.511 0.102 -0.043 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 184 1.000 0.101 1.413 9.663 0.097 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.026 1.153 8.425 0.017 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.101 1.193 7.010 0.102 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.000 0.030 1.259 5.957 0.020 0.028 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.057 -0.192 2.608 0.065 -0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.083 0.707 4.236 0.089 -0.024 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.113 1.966 10.193 0.109 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 303 1.000 0.155 4.478 36.790 0.126 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 319 0.227 0.114 0.006 0.079 3.974 -0.119 0.620 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.119 SERIES 863091 AND 863132 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.620 SERIES 863052 AND 863140 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.15 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 42.40 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 45. 153. 153. 171. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.276 0.239 0.212 0.247 0.252 0.261 0.246 SDEV 0.160 0.220 0.162 0.164 0.163 0.159 0.177 SERR 0.024 0.018 0.013 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.862 0.856 0.845 0.882 0.893 0.898 0.891 NSS 16.4 19.0 20.2 22.9 24.7 25.0 25.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 0.997 0.059 0.220 3.041 0.067 -0.039 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.139 0.101 -0.049 105 246 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.92 1.00 1.07 1.99 17.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.84 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.039 0.032 0.020 -0.004 0.057 -0.045 0.038 -0.032 0.000 0.049 PACF -0.039 0.030 0.023 -0.003 0.056 -0.041 0.032 -0.029 -0.002 0.046 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 0.021 0.000 0.054 -0.040 0.034 -0.030 0.001 0.046 PACF -0.001 0.001 0.021 0.000 0.054 -0.041 0.034 -0.033 0.003 0.042 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1750 2100 351 0.997 0.060 0.250 3.059 0.069 -0.073 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.073 0.161 0.008 0.014 0.060 -0.047 0.046 -0.030 0.000 0.054 PACF -0.073 0.156 0.030 -0.009 0.056 -0.041 0.022 -0.014 -0.014 0.058 95% C.L. 0.107 0.107 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.031 -0.062 0.157 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES