RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 869 1 Solenoya-River WIDTH_EARLY LASI - 869 2 Russia Siberian larch 130 6807-8503 1637 1990 - 869 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 869011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 76 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1833 / 1921 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 869012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 2 GAPS / 1860 1860 / 1910 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 869021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1807 1807 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 869022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 88 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 869041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1970 1970 / 2067 2067 / 2133 2134 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 869052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 72 IN 2 GAPS / 1867 1937 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 869082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 5 GAPS / 1828 1835 / 1869 1869 / 1933 1933 / 1935 1936 / / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 869091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 869132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 869152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 869162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1883 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.295 0.178 1.381 5.378 0.377 0.709 2 869012 1667 1990 324 0.350 0.230 1.034 3.578 0.397 0.736 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.423 0.271 1.811 7.723 0.437 0.619 4 869022 1743 1988 246 0.565 0.414 1.163 4.132 0.424 0.688 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.355 0.195 0.930 4.168 0.471 0.464 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.341 0.163 0.783 3.682 0.395 0.554 7 869052 1646 1990 345 0.377 0.204 1.019 4.139 0.394 0.655 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.537 0.241 0.767 3.952 0.423 0.416 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.658 0.424 1.482 5.479 0.478 0.482 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.423 0.315 1.045 3.012 0.403 0.783 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.315 0.203 1.077 3.976 0.494 0.689 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.430 0.226 0.656 3.457 0.463 0.534 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.406 0.227 0.840 4.170 0.469 0.556 14 869101 1842 1990 149 0.380 0.193 0.876 3.862 0.430 0.499 15 869102 1843 1990 148 0.409 0.210 0.699 3.011 0.458 0.480 16 869111 1764 1990 227 0.436 0.331 1.983 7.375 0.474 0.779 17 869112 1762 1990 229 0.460 0.369 1.927 6.862 0.513 0.754 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.387 0.348 2.249 10.554 0.505 0.670 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.415 0.319 2.296 11.185 0.431 0.714 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 0.609 0.419 2.392 11.600 0.412 0.661 21 869132 1766 1988 223 0.700 0.453 1.686 6.717 0.402 0.658 22 869141 1783 1990 208 0.463 0.311 1.288 4.805 0.504 0.600 23 869142 1777 1990 214 0.529 0.370 1.274 4.667 0.516 0.717 24 869151 1751 1990 240 0.468 0.426 1.866 6.261 0.503 0.805 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.368 0.225 1.037 4.807 0.492 0.601 26 869161 1794 1990 197 0.331 0.177 0.581 3.176 0.546 0.390 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.579 0.322 0.457 2.595 0.471 0.519 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1637 TO 2150 514 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.445 0.288 1.281 5.345 0.455 0.620 STANDARD DEVIATION 74 0.106 0.091 0.560 2.485 0.046 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.423 0.271 1.077 4.170 0.463 0.655 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.126 0.152 0.891 2.717 0.076 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.295 0.163 0.457 2.595 0.377 0.390 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 185 0.373 0.207 0.858 3.772 0.417 0.527 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 228 0.499 0.359 1.748 6.489 0.493 0.712 MAXIMUM VALUE 478 0.700 0.453 2.392 11.600 0.546 0.805 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.556 0.231 0.013 -0.853 3.198 -0.144 0.960 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.144 SERIES 869041 AND 869121 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.960 SERIES 869111 AND 869112 227 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.703 0.697 0.689 0.423 0.654 0.760 0.586 0.537 0.532 0.604 SDEV 0.096 0.116 0.116 0.271 0.133 0.166 0.308 0.358 0.290 0.230 SERR 0.039 0.037 0.037 0.086 0.016 0.014 0.020 0.024 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.933 0.932 0.936 0.890 0.970 0.985 0.970 0.966 0.967 0.975 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.604 0.550 SDEV 0.224 0.264 SERR 0.012 0.016 EPS 0.975 0.969 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.385 0.216 0.927 3.912 0.425 0.653 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.643 0.382 -0.020 135 379 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.58 1.63 1.00 1.13 2.76 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.81 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 52. 99. 188. 240. 482. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.652 0.621 0.518 0.477 0.449 0.404 0.395 0.368 0.374 0.320 PACF 0.652 0.342 0.056 0.061 0.082 0.018 0.055 0.032 0.067 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.088 0.120 0.143 0.157 0.168 0.177 0.184 0.190 0.196 0.201 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.504 0.391 0.293 0.007 0.037 0.094 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 1 0.48987073 0.00396858 0.00000000 0.02322235 2 869012 1 0.60459977 0.00535818 0.00000000 0.04521942 3 869021 1 0.85300946 0.04961450 0.00000000 0.34536842 4 869022 1 1.05206394 0.01034705 0.00000000 0.09977198 5 869041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033662 0.43322784 6 869051 1 0.37205541 0.00612788 0.00000000 0.18399011 7 869052 1 0.54698598 0.00700477 0.00000000 0.13115689 8 869061 1 0.29938129 0.04387913 0.00000000 0.48038647 9 869062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00468827 0.92493045 10 869072 1 0.89109123 0.02300301 0.00000000 0.07539789 11 869082 1 0.50180984 0.03442101 0.00000000 0.24239762 12 869091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084455 0.34822187 13 869092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089242 0.31453934 14 869101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00161603 0.25873026 15 869102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00126902 0.31491727 16 869111 1 1.30727267 0.04444415 0.00000000 0.30932513 17 869112 1 1.58412600 0.04797925 0.00000000 0.31899583 18 869121 1 0.96278250 0.02484832 0.00000000 0.18114127 19 869122 1 1.38909280 0.08109748 0.00000000 0.32709458 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 1 1.56203127 0.05997346 0.00000000 0.47632736 21 869132 1 1.14165246 0.00553800 0.00000000 0.00784878 22 869141 1 0.80858785 0.02188732 0.00000000 0.28926858 23 869142 1 0.98771405 0.02993222 0.00000000 0.37770012 24 869151 1 1.46022880 0.02448156 0.00000000 0.22321308 25 869152 1 0.63129276 0.03624647 0.00000000 0.28320473 26 869161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009495 0.32176784 27 869162 1 0.61952293 0.03172984 0.00000000 0.47700852 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.001 0.513 0.570 2.846 0.368 0.639 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.004 0.550 0.929 3.464 0.385 0.657 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.999 0.500 0.781 4.131 0.439 0.515 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.012 0.452 0.587 4.076 0.401 0.415 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.998 0.549 0.895 4.450 0.509 0.440 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.392 0.221 3.028 0.394 0.359 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.002 0.431 0.770 4.976 0.383 0.505 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.412 0.202 2.448 0.419 0.336 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.993 0.599 1.774 7.272 0.473 0.492 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.019 0.588 0.928 3.615 0.400 0.653 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.999 0.596 0.779 3.533 0.500 0.611 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.001 0.501 0.296 2.608 0.460 0.493 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.521 0.426 3.162 0.467 0.490 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.002 0.468 0.578 3.212 0.428 0.429 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.001 0.498 0.695 3.332 0.455 0.454 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.001 0.492 0.530 3.457 0.472 0.450 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.514 0.618 3.409 0.510 0.412 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.999 0.617 1.002 3.989 0.503 0.633 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.001 0.565 0.850 3.575 0.429 0.678 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.001 0.486 1.010 5.389 0.410 0.526 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.004 0.503 1.145 4.956 0.381 0.573 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.516 0.619 3.112 0.502 0.429 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.562 0.589 3.043 0.514 0.569 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.009 0.562 0.986 4.955 0.500 0.511 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.999 0.537 0.339 2.709 0.496 0.519 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.534 0.577 3.130 0.543 0.390 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.999 0.527 0.575 3.321 0.471 0.458 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.002 0.518 0.714 3.748 0.452 0.505 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.005 0.056 0.327 1.045 0.050 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.516 0.619 3.457 0.460 0.493 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.002 0.061 0.339 0.982 0.095 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.993 0.392 0.202 2.448 0.368 0.336 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 0.999 0.495 0.572 3.121 0.406 0.435 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.001 0.556 0.911 4.103 0.500 0.571 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.019 0.617 1.774 7.272 0.543 0.678 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 869012 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 869021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 869022 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 869041 -67 322 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 869051 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 869052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 869061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 869062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 869072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 869082 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 869091 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 869092 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 869101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 869102 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 869111 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 869112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 869121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 869122 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 869132 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 869141 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 869142 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 869151 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 869152 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 869161 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 869162 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.991 0.483 0.514 2.843 0.368 0.601 2 869012 1667 1990 324 0.987 0.482 0.662 3.054 0.386 0.559 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.994 0.424 0.339 4.171 0.440 0.303 4 869022 1743 1988 246 0.995 0.409 0.412 4.228 0.401 0.335 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.995 0.532 0.934 4.828 0.509 0.412 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.996 0.365 -0.011 2.781 0.394 0.234 7 869052 1646 1990 345 0.995 0.382 0.095 2.689 0.383 0.385 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.997 0.403 0.213 2.557 0.419 0.315 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.994 0.530 1.181 4.986 0.473 0.399 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.976 0.434 0.698 4.043 0.400 0.369 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.994 0.516 0.298 2.745 0.500 0.436 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.998 0.494 0.306 2.753 0.460 0.469 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.998 0.519 0.476 3.332 0.467 0.487 14 869101 1842 1990 149 0.996 0.451 0.501 2.942 0.427 0.386 15 869102 1843 1990 148 0.997 0.484 0.610 2.970 0.454 0.419 16 869111 1764 1990 227 0.997 0.468 0.343 2.981 0.472 0.398 17 869112 1762 1990 229 0.998 0.502 0.651 3.697 0.510 0.368 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.972 0.468 0.394 3.251 0.503 0.361 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.970 0.412 0.156 2.875 0.429 0.426 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 0.993 0.444 0.560 4.028 0.410 0.458 21 869132 1766 1988 223 0.994 0.456 0.812 4.251 0.381 0.500 22 869141 1783 1990 208 0.994 0.491 0.561 3.124 0.502 0.351 23 869142 1777 1990 214 0.995 0.547 0.579 3.089 0.514 0.531 24 869151 1751 1990 240 0.994 0.504 0.573 3.499 0.501 0.390 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.994 0.493 0.194 2.750 0.496 0.398 26 869161 1794 1990 197 0.994 0.514 0.578 3.392 0.543 0.332 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.995 0.487 0.533 3.565 0.471 0.332 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 0.992 0.470 0.487 3.386 0.452 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.008 0.048 0.259 0.675 0.050 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.994 0.483 0.514 3.124 0.460 0.398 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.002 0.064 0.272 1.004 0.095 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.970 0.365 -0.011 2.557 0.368 0.234 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 0.994 0.439 0.323 2.859 0.406 0.356 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 0.996 0.503 0.594 3.863 0.500 0.447 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 0.998 0.547 1.181 4.986 0.543 0.601 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.598 0.186 0.010 -2.057 7.343 -0.142 0.936 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.142 SERIES 869041 AND 869062 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.936 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.604 0.724 0.661 0.442 0.669 0.729 0.623 0.533 0.574 0.601 SDEV 0.126 0.100 0.128 0.257 0.127 0.128 0.313 0.358 0.283 0.239 SERR 0.051 0.032 0.041 0.081 0.016 0.011 0.021 0.024 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.900 0.939 0.928 0.897 0.972 0.982 0.974 0.965 0.972 0.975 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.584 0.603 SDEV 0.206 0.220 SERR 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.973 0.975 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.973 0.448 0.598 3.832 0.431 0.451 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.207 0.068 0.106 120 394 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.11 1.00 1.15 2.26 263.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.82 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.450 0.393 0.247 0.189 0.152 0.072 0.044 -0.006 -0.066 -0.089 PACF 0.450 0.239 0.007 0.012 0.031 -0.049 -0.020 -0.037 -0.078 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.088 0.105 0.115 0.120 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.249 0.343 0.239 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.445 0.363 0.254 0.183 0.148 0.034 0.016 -0.017 -0.102 -0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.445 2 0.354 0.206 3 0.345 0.190 0.044 4 0.344 0.189 0.040 0.009 5 0.344 0.188 0.036 0.001 0.024 6 0.346 0.188 0.039 0.019 0.056 -0.094 7 0.345 0.189 0.040 0.019 0.060 -0.087 -0.019 8 0.344 0.187 0.041 0.020 0.061 -0.084 -0.012 -0.018 9 0.342 0.186 0.032 0.026 0.063 -0.080 0.008 0.019 -0.107 10 0.339 0.186 0.032 0.024 0.065 -0.079 0.009 0.025 -0.096 -0.031 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 5026.65 4915.07 4894.84 4895.86 4897.81 4899.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4896.97 4898.79 4900.63 4896.71 4898.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.354 0.206 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 23.22 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 130.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.354 0.331 0.190 0.135 0.087 0.059 0.039 0.026 0.017 0.0113 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 869011 2 0.391 0.479 0.206 2 869012 2 0.350 0.446 0.204 3 869021 2 0.135 0.247 0.189 4 869022 2 0.183 0.252 0.248 5 869041 2 0.195 0.344 0.167 6 869051 2 0.144 0.171 0.271 7 869052 2 0.235 0.267 0.309 8 869061 2 0.176 0.239 0.254 9 869062 2 0.230 0.297 0.261 10 869072 2 0.228 0.255 0.313 11 869082 2 0.218 0.362 0.174 12 869091 2 0.261 0.364 0.225 13 869092 2 0.263 0.404 0.175 14 869101 2 0.165 0.335 0.132 15 869102 2 0.193 0.361 0.140 16 869111 2 0.177 0.345 0.136 17 869112 2 0.141 0.342 0.072 18 869121 2 0.145 0.321 0.115 19 869122 2 0.207 0.357 0.162 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 869131 2 0.231 0.394 0.141 21 869132 2 0.288 0.442 0.120 22 869141 2 0.157 0.287 0.181 23 869142 2 0.297 0.460 0.137 24 869151 2 0.195 0.309 0.208 25 869152 2 0.216 0.308 0.228 26 869161 2 0.136 0.286 0.142 27 869162 2 0.147 0.293 0.119 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.211 0.332 0.186 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 0.074 0.062 MEDIAN 2 0.195 0.335 0.175 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.072 0.077 0.088 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.135 0.171 0.072 LOWER HINGE 2 0.161 0.286 0.138 UPPER HINGE 2 0.233 0.363 0.226 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.391 0.479 0.313 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.376 0.410 3.104 0.430 -0.001 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.001 0.388 0.547 4.076 0.442 -0.021 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.396 0.377 4.045 0.465 -0.020 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.373 0.307 4.802 0.446 -0.034 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.002 0.473 0.910 5.425 0.543 0.000 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.341 -0.126 3.112 0.410 -0.042 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.335 -0.046 2.974 0.403 -0.025 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.369 0.065 2.652 0.439 0.032 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.468 1.069 4.966 0.501 0.028 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.382 0.857 5.306 0.418 -0.024 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.001 0.454 0.082 2.724 0.538 -0.005 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.424 0.342 2.762 0.509 0.010 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.444 0.467 3.370 0.534 -0.003 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.413 0.365 2.778 0.481 -0.004 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.435 0.449 3.002 0.507 0.003 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.425 0.374 3.153 0.519 -0.008 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.466 0.676 4.345 0.551 -0.002 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.433 0.337 3.731 0.538 0.003 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.367 0.024 2.977 0.458 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.390 0.626 4.496 0.440 -0.011 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.391 0.733 4.612 0.452 -0.022 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.452 0.416 3.014 0.555 -0.014 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.001 0.455 0.265 3.109 0.559 0.003 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.453 0.621 4.514 0.542 -0.019 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.440 0.171 3.025 0.534 -0.029 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.001 0.478 0.662 4.207 0.581 -0.014 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.003 0.447 0.637 4.380 0.508 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.417 0.430 3.728 0.493 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.001 0.042 0.294 0.868 0.053 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.425 0.410 3.370 0.507 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.068 0.345 1.430 0.094 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.335 -0.126 2.652 0.403 -0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.385 0.286 3.008 0.444 -0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.453 0.631 4.438 0.538 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.003 0.478 1.069 5.425 0.581 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.574 0.189 0.010 -2.005 7.290 -0.199 0.920 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.199 SERIES 869041 AND 869062 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.920 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.535 0.674 0.623 0.580 0.727 0.702 0.569 0.499 0.577 0.556 SDEV 0.109 0.101 0.138 0.153 0.093 0.125 0.257 0.310 0.306 0.287 SERR 0.044 0.032 0.044 0.048 0.011 0.011 0.017 0.020 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.871 0.924 0.916 0.938 0.979 0.980 0.968 0.961 0.972 0.970 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.513 0.600 SDEV 0.245 0.220 SERR 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.965 0.975 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.991 0.386 0.462 4.231 0.459 0.020 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.175 0.060 0.094 124 390 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 0.92 1.00 1.14 2.06 46.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.80 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.020 0.051 0.018 0.032 0.065 -0.007 0.026 0.010 -0.059 -0.080 PACF 0.020 0.051 0.016 0.029 0.062 -0.012 0.019 0.008 -0.066 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.002 0.012 0.029 0.063 -0.010 0.026 0.016 -0.059 -0.079 PACF -0.001 -0.002 0.012 0.029 0.063 -0.010 0.026 0.013 -0.062 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.989 0.445 0.556 3.850 0.415 0.457 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.456 0.381 0.256 0.198 0.160 0.080 0.055 0.007 -0.057 -0.086 PACF 0.456 0.218 0.027 0.021 0.028 -0.049 -0.012 -0.033 -0.080 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.088 0.105 0.115 0.120 0.122 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.248 0.357 0.219 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES