RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 869 1 Solenoya-River DENSITY_EARLY LASI - 869 2 Russia Siberian larch 130 6807-8503 1637 1990 - 869 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 869011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 76 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1833 / 1921 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 869012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 32 IN 4 GAPS / 1820 1820 / 1833 1833 / 1860 1860 / 1910 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 869021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1807 1807 / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 869022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 88 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 869041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 7 GAPS / 1970 1970 / 1993 1993 / 2027 2027 / 2067 2067 / / 2086 2086 / 2100 2100 / 2133 2134 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 869051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 869052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 73 IN 3 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1937 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 869082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 11 GAPS / 1820 1820 / 1828 1835 / 1867 1867 / 1869 1869 / / 1883 1883 / 1907 1907 / 1918 1918 / 1933 1933 / / 1935 1936 / 1947 1947 / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 869091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 869092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 869102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 869111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 869112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1869 1869 / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 869121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 8 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1907 1907 / 1918 1918 / / 1920 1920 / 1930 1930 / 1935 1935 / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 869122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 5 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1907 1907 / 1920 1920 / / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 869131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1920 1920 / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 869132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 32 IN 3 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1910 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 869141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1920 1920 / 1939 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 869142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 5 GAPS / 1820 1820 / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1920 1920 / / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 869151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 5 GAPS / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1884 1884 / 1917 1917 / / 1929 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 869152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 7 GAPS / 1826 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1884 1884 / 1907 1907 / / 1917 1917 / 1929 1929 / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 869161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 6 GAPS / 1819 1819 / 1833 1833 / 1873 1873 / 1916 1916 / / 1930 1930 / 1937 1937 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 869162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 26 IN 7 GAPS / 1819 1819 / 1833 1833 / 1867 1867 / 1883 1902 / / 1916 1916 / 1930 1930 / 1937 1937 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 3.745 0.346 0.613 4.412 0.068 0.537 2 869012 1667 1990 324 3.694 0.397 0.538 7.356 0.079 0.434 3 869021 1770 1990 221 3.380 0.376 0.911 4.951 0.087 0.357 4 869022 1743 1988 246 3.342 0.437 1.079 4.818 0.087 0.544 5 869041 1669 2150 482 3.531 0.602 0.024 8.884 0.109 0.493 6 869051 1656 1990 335 3.448 0.434 0.661 3.835 0.070 0.680 7 869052 1646 1990 345 3.558 0.390 1.087 6.434 0.083 0.308 8 869061 1874 1990 117 4.043 0.362 0.626 3.447 0.071 0.534 9 869062 1878 1990 113 3.935 0.398 0.268 3.542 0.083 0.403 10 869072 1637 1735 99 3.623 0.398 2.027 7.986 0.078 0.359 11 869082 1751 1990 240 3.188 0.475 2.660 15.695 0.125 0.185 12 869091 1801 1990 190 3.156 0.335 0.161 2.956 0.091 0.362 13 869092 1788 1990 203 3.114 0.393 0.389 3.040 0.087 0.591 14 869101 1842 1990 149 3.260 0.380 0.603 5.866 0.099 0.361 15 869102 1843 1990 148 3.262 0.385 0.403 4.489 0.096 0.384 16 869111 1764 1990 227 3.379 0.350 0.390 4.760 0.085 0.358 17 869112 1762 1990 229 3.106 0.339 1.356 7.413 0.090 0.212 18 869121 1807 1990 184 2.941 0.470 0.924 3.832 0.102 0.584 19 869122 1804 1990 187 3.010 0.489 0.863 3.684 0.100 0.657 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 3.125 0.363 0.618 7.068 0.094 0.290 21 869132 1766 1988 223 2.798 0.355 -0.653 6.884 0.088 0.461 22 869141 1783 1990 208 2.964 0.424 0.456 2.918 0.084 0.674 23 869142 1777 1990 214 2.783 0.303 1.549 9.406 0.094 0.180 24 869151 1751 1990 240 3.348 0.377 1.301 6.516 0.095 0.302 25 869152 1761 1990 230 3.158 0.424 0.247 4.089 0.108 0.408 26 869161 1794 1990 197 3.125 0.386 1.030 6.733 0.098 0.343 27 869162 1763 1990 228 2.925 0.358 -0.752 7.436 0.110 0.244 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1637 TO 2150 514 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 3.294 0.398 0.718 5.868 0.091 0.416 STANDARD DEVIATION 74 0.325 0.060 0.710 2.728 0.013 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 202 3.260 0.386 0.618 4.951 0.090 0.384 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.380 0.064 0.665 3.379 0.015 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 99 2.783 0.303 -0.752 2.918 0.068 0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 179 3.110 0.360 0.389 3.833 0.084 0.325 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 225 3.490 0.424 1.055 7.212 0.099 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 474 4.043 0.602 2.660 15.695 0.125 0.680 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.246 0.187 0.010 -0.439 3.509 -0.367 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.367 SERIES 869022 AND 869102 146 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 869121 AND 869122 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.080 0.318 0.185 0.139 0.310 0.404 0.454 0.226 0.295 0.253 SDEV 0.206 0.167 0.187 0.262 0.180 0.228 0.223 0.207 0.178 0.215 SERR 0.084 0.053 0.059 0.083 0.022 0.020 0.015 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.340 0.734 0.601 0.641 0.886 0.934 0.950 0.877 0.914 0.898 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.224 0.217 SDEV 0.217 0.208 SERR 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.882 0.878 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 3.420 0.370 0.887 5.093 0.074 0.484 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.146 -0.086 0.564 89 425 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.93 1.01 1.07 2.00 17.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.84 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 52. 99. 188. 240. 482. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.483 0.404 0.360 0.361 0.408 0.379 0.422 0.393 0.350 0.373 PACF 0.483 0.223 0.138 0.142 0.191 0.095 0.165 0.085 0.024 0.085 95% C.L. 0.088 0.107 0.118 0.126 0.134 0.144 0.151 0.160 0.167 0.173 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.375 0.235 0.082 0.021 0.054 0.149 0.050 0.154 0.104 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 1 0.34162867 0.01840722 0.00000000 3.68983221 2 869012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181216 3.98887563 3 869021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00119901 3.52538872 4 869022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00267361 2.99105954 5 869041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010898 3.55157161 6 869051 1 1.92393744 0.00197554 0.00000000 2.04220104 7 869052 1 0.39984521 0.02096600 0.00000000 3.53705573 8 869061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00356974 4.25386238 9 869062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00411230 4.16900301 10 869072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031911 3.60727692 11 869082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089211 3.09135008 12 869091 1 0.78505588 0.17768241 0.00000000 3.15243840 13 869092 1 1.02419174 0.01959920 0.00000000 2.87898397 14 869101 1 0.72664857 0.02840856 0.00000000 3.09275055 15 869102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00445533 3.59701514 16 869111 1 0.56993252 0.00214077 0.00000000 2.93287849 17 869112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104151 3.22962046 18 869121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00383311 2.62018943 19 869122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00430979 2.62482333 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099322 3.23461509 21 869132 1 3.04527617 0.00132894 0.00000000 0.15275228 22 869141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00466621 3.46513844 23 869142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042756 2.74956632 24 869151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030811 3.38795352 25 869152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00337173 3.56242490 26 869161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00267040 3.40625501 27 869162 1 0.54072642 0.00611018 0.00000000 2.64841890 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.084 0.821 4.978 0.057 0.546 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.094 1.467 13.625 0.074 0.261 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.122 2.133 12.286 0.091 0.270 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.089 1.032 5.768 0.064 0.328 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.000 0.170 0.028 8.858 0.108 0.488 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.098 0.692 3.742 0.072 0.455 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.096 1.004 7.582 0.072 0.263 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.084 0.618 3.471 0.070 0.476 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.096 0.490 3.813 0.082 0.305 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.110 2.030 7.971 0.078 0.353 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.145 2.717 16.514 0.121 0.179 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.118 1.729 12.849 0.097 0.215 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.113 2.122 14.627 0.093 0.190 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.102 0.431 6.717 0.098 0.185 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.103 0.930 5.610 0.097 0.168 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.104 0.623 5.309 0.087 0.296 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.108 1.540 8.078 0.092 0.148 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.151 1.407 6.677 0.106 0.408 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.146 1.101 5.027 0.104 0.463 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.125 1.430 10.910 0.102 0.084 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.093 -1.310 15.679 0.083 0.037 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.116 1.327 8.622 0.089 0.209 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.122 2.536 16.254 0.102 0.067 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.113 1.342 6.472 0.095 0.274 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.115 0.856 5.283 0.105 0.195 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.125 1.905 11.417 0.103 0.119 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.113 -1.011 8.809 0.106 0.143 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.113 1.111 8.776 0.091 0.264 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.000 0.021 0.928 4.058 0.015 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.113 1.101 7.971 0.093 0.261 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.025 0.977 6.391 0.022 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.084 -1.310 3.471 0.057 0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.097 0.657 5.460 0.080 0.173 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.122 1.634 11.851 0.102 0.341 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.000 0.170 2.717 16.514 0.121 0.546 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 869012 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 869021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 869022 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 869041 -67 322 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 869051 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 869052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 869061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 869062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 869072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 869082 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 869091 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 869092 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 869101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 869102 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 869111 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 869112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 869121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 869122 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 869132 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 869141 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 869142 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 869151 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 869152 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 869161 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 869162 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.081 0.786 5.336 0.057 0.515 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.091 1.448 13.127 0.074 0.220 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.113 2.310 14.088 0.091 0.174 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.082 0.951 6.142 0.064 0.223 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.999 0.156 0.028 11.619 0.108 0.393 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.093 0.665 3.959 0.072 0.399 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.094 1.326 9.290 0.072 0.219 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.073 0.606 3.422 0.070 0.287 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.093 0.387 3.923 0.082 0.272 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.999 0.098 2.078 8.427 0.077 0.227 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.139 2.612 15.606 0.121 0.113 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.999 0.110 1.958 14.986 0.097 0.111 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.110 2.173 15.191 0.093 0.143 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.099 0.418 6.879 0.098 0.144 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.091 0.791 5.507 0.097 -0.033 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.100 0.666 5.321 0.087 0.244 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.108 1.503 7.983 0.092 0.139 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.999 0.124 2.288 15.052 0.106 0.097 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.999 0.119 1.638 9.701 0.104 0.178 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.122 1.721 12.926 0.102 0.023 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.091 -1.358 16.577 0.083 -0.005 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.113 1.452 9.284 0.089 0.168 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.119 2.748 17.891 0.102 0.019 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.111 1.372 6.489 0.095 0.253 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.108 0.838 5.896 0.105 0.102 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.121 2.020 12.741 0.103 0.060 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.111 -1.009 9.282 0.106 0.118 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.106 1.200 9.876 0.091 0.178 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.000 0.018 1.000 4.392 0.015 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.108 1.372 9.284 0.093 0.168 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.023 1.324 7.589 0.022 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.999 0.073 -1.358 3.422 0.057 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.093 0.665 6.019 0.080 0.106 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.116 1.989 13.608 0.102 0.236 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.000 0.156 2.748 17.891 0.121 0.515 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.265 0.143 0.008 0.125 2.832 -0.107 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 869041 AND 869051 322 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.105 0.270 0.181 0.152 0.307 0.427 0.459 0.232 0.310 0.278 SDEV 0.135 0.162 0.187 0.246 0.176 0.220 0.218 0.206 0.175 0.214 SERR 0.055 0.051 0.059 0.078 0.022 0.019 0.014 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.409 0.686 0.594 0.665 0.884 0.940 0.951 0.881 0.920 0.909 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.199 0.194 SDEV 0.205 0.177 SERR 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.866 0.862 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.997 0.082 1.803 14.629 0.075 0.105 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.123 0.065 -0.015 131 383 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.28 1.00 1.15 2.44 63.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.80 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.105 0.010 0.008 -0.069 0.001 0.012 0.043 0.030 0.018 0.029 PACF 0.105 -0.001 0.007 -0.072 0.016 0.011 0.043 0.016 0.014 0.027 95% C.L. 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.106 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.012 -0.010 0.133 -0.094 -0.131 -0.009 -0.011 0.032 0.102 0.040 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.012 2 0.012 -0.011 3 0.014 -0.012 0.133 4 0.027 -0.013 0.135 -0.100 5 0.014 0.004 0.133 -0.096 -0.128 6 0.011 0.001 0.136 -0.096 -0.128 -0.025 7 0.011 0.003 0.138 -0.098 -0.128 -0.025 0.015 8 0.010 0.005 0.145 -0.092 -0.136 -0.026 0.014 0.061 9 0.005 0.004 0.148 -0.081 -0.128 -0.038 0.014 0.060 0.085 10 0.004 0.002 0.147 -0.080 -0.126 -0.036 0.011 0.060 0.085 0.019 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3166.89 3168.81 3170.75 3163.55 3160.41 3153.93 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3155.60 3157.48 3157.60 3155.88 3157.70 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.014 0.004 0.133 -0.096 -0.128 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.37 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.57 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.014 0.004 0.133 -0.093 -0.130 0.013 -0.026 -0.026 0.026 0.0121 -0.002 0.009 0.003 -0.005 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.001 -.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 869011 5 0.300 0.414 0.120 0.120 -0.019 0.007 2 869012 5 0.073 0.212 0.013 0.146 -0.040 -0.031 3 869021 5 0.083 0.129 0.043 0.172 0.084 0.011 4 869022 5 0.103 0.196 -0.040 0.049 0.184 0.081 5 869041 5 0.189 0.368 -0.032 0.077 0.071 0.076 6 869051 5 0.238 0.274 0.118 0.113 0.046 0.110 7 869052 5 0.115 0.142 0.219 0.126 -0.007 -0.040 8 869061 5 0.131 0.278 0.101 -0.020 -0.088 0.124 9 869062 5 0.105 0.244 0.156 -0.050 -0.026 0.012 10 869072 5 0.081 0.210 0.131 -0.022 0.010 -0.101 11 869082 5 0.018 0.113 0.017 -0.014 -0.003 0.019 12 869091 5 0.030 0.115 0.036 0.030 -0.116 0.057 13 869092 5 0.060 0.115 0.112 0.062 -0.093 -0.133 14 869101 5 0.040 0.144 0.011 -0.041 -0.004 -0.007 15 869102 5 0.054 -0.032 0.021 0.068 0.003 -0.169 16 869111 5 0.097 0.201 0.079 0.163 -0.008 -0.007 17 869112 5 0.052 0.142 0.029 0.122 -0.143 -0.019 18 869121 5 0.032 0.097 -0.008 0.129 -0.015 0.073 19 869122 5 0.058 0.147 0.064 0.114 0.053 -0.013 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 869131 5 0.027 0.024 0.027 0.114 -0.078 -0.065 21 869132 5 0.010 -0.005 0.073 0.027 -0.045 -0.002 22 869141 5 0.091 0.123 0.060 0.223 0.018 0.030 23 869142 5 0.013 0.022 -0.036 0.096 0.025 -0.027 24 869151 5 0.108 0.210 0.120 0.128 -0.049 -0.067 25 869152 5 0.033 0.087 0.068 0.095 0.036 -0.070 26 869161 5 0.074 0.025 0.209 0.148 -0.022 -0.123 27 869162 5 0.038 0.093 0.100 0.103 0.002 0.018 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.083 0.151 0.067 0.084 -0.008 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.068 0.106 0.068 0.070 0.067 0.072 MEDIAN 5 0.073 0.142 0.064 0.103 -0.007 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.068 0.115 0.096 0.088 0.064 0.076 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.010 -0.032 -0.040 -0.050 -0.143 -0.169 LOWER HINGE 5 0.036 0.095 0.019 0.039 -0.042 -0.052 UPPER HINGE 5 0.104 0.210 0.115 0.127 0.022 0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.300 0.414 0.219 0.223 0.184 0.124 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.068 0.248 5.329 0.070 -0.002 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.087 1.394 12.525 0.082 0.002 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.108 2.004 12.463 0.098 0.001 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.078 1.482 8.632 0.067 0.000 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.000 0.137 0.451 14.856 0.135 -0.021 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.082 0.768 6.007 0.083 -0.016 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.088 1.738 10.244 0.076 0.002 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.069 0.721 3.813 0.077 0.008 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.089 0.453 3.826 0.092 0.000 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.094 1.857 7.603 0.084 -0.006 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.138 2.574 15.047 0.128 0.000 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.108 1.967 15.445 0.102 0.000 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.106 2.414 17.338 0.097 0.000 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.098 0.468 7.022 0.105 -0.001 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.090 0.781 5.370 0.095 -0.023 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.095 0.790 5.938 0.097 -0.001 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.105 1.527 7.831 0.101 0.000 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.122 2.372 16.772 0.110 0.001 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.116 1.938 12.993 0.112 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.121 1.703 13.554 0.102 -0.004 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.091 -1.393 16.939 0.083 0.000 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.108 1.676 11.998 0.095 -0.003 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.118 2.702 17.628 0.102 0.000 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.105 1.331 6.479 0.107 0.009 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.107 0.904 6.234 0.109 0.004 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.116 2.072 13.648 0.104 -0.008 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.109 -1.074 9.944 0.113 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.102 1.254 10.573 0.097 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.000 0.018 1.004 4.503 0.016 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.105 1.482 10.244 0.098 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.023 1.208 7.895 0.023 0.003 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.068 -1.393 3.813 0.067 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.089 0.744 6.357 0.083 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.112 1.953 14.252 0.106 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.000 0.138 2.702 17.628 0.135 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.285 0.138 0.008 0.247 2.835 -0.057 0.723 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.057 SERIES 869022 AND 869101 147 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.723 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.202 0.344 0.234 0.223 0.345 0.462 0.481 0.253 0.326 0.291 SDEV 0.102 0.124 0.200 0.231 0.148 0.194 0.204 0.189 0.173 0.201 SERR 0.042 0.039 0.063 0.073 0.018 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.598 0.756 0.669 0.759 0.900 0.947 0.955 0.892 0.925 0.914 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.210 0.195 SDEV 0.184 0.169 SERR 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.874 0.863 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.997 0.082 1.809 14.934 0.086 -0.118 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.139 0.068 -0.022 140 374 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.07 1.00 1.12 2.19 33.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.80 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.118 -0.013 -0.083 -0.088 -0.011 -0.029 0.039 0.034 -0.009 0.027 PACF -0.118 -0.027 -0.089 -0.112 -0.042 -0.052 0.009 0.023 -0.012 0.024 95% C.L. 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.090 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 -0.119 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.006 -0.003 0.002 -0.004 -0.048 0.017 0.021 -0.006 0.022 PACF -0.001 -0.006 -0.003 0.002 -0.004 -0.048 0.016 0.021 -0.006 0.022 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.002 -0.001 -0.006 -0.003 0.002 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.997 0.082 1.862 15.014 0.081 0.017 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.017 -0.014 0.121 -0.090 -0.137 -0.028 -0.002 -0.015 0.017 0.044 PACF 0.017 -0.014 0.122 -0.096 -0.132 -0.041 0.020 0.010 0.001 0.018 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.090 0.090 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES