RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 869 1 Solenoya-River WIDTH_LATE LASI - 869 2 Russia Siberian larch 130 6807-8503 1637 1990 - 869 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 869011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 76 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1833 / 1921 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 869012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 2 GAPS / 1860 1860 / 1910 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 869021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1807 1807 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 869022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 88 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 869041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1970 1970 / 2067 2067 / 2133 2134 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 869052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 72 IN 2 GAPS / 1867 1937 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 869082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 5 GAPS / 1828 1835 / 1869 1869 / 1933 1933 / 1935 1936 / / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 869091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 869132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 869152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 869162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1883 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.122 0.063 1.016 3.592 0.358 0.600 2 869012 1667 1990 324 0.139 0.092 0.981 3.221 0.394 0.672 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.139 0.084 1.892 8.041 0.413 0.517 4 869022 1743 1988 246 0.183 0.115 1.268 4.155 0.413 0.501 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.195 0.136 1.558 5.626 0.471 0.500 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.132 0.077 1.327 5.130 0.350 0.664 7 869052 1646 1990 345 0.151 0.089 1.538 6.254 0.365 0.662 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.242 0.100 0.894 4.103 0.372 0.304 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.282 0.173 2.673 15.477 0.451 0.300 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.171 0.118 1.156 3.610 0.358 0.725 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.134 0.080 2.015 10.921 0.441 0.528 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.202 0.108 0.784 3.689 0.419 0.549 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.173 0.105 1.367 5.878 0.455 0.466 14 869101 1842 1990 149 0.147 0.088 3.614 22.172 0.454 0.148 15 869102 1843 1990 148 0.166 0.109 3.871 24.372 0.458 0.204 16 869111 1764 1990 227 0.140 0.086 1.801 6.896 0.431 0.583 17 869112 1762 1990 229 0.148 0.097 1.835 7.626 0.441 0.582 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.138 0.084 1.493 5.677 0.453 0.561 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.150 0.101 2.481 11.979 0.427 0.464 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 0.209 0.151 2.533 12.571 0.501 0.496 21 869132 1766 1988 223 0.230 0.166 2.185 8.291 0.399 0.589 22 869141 1783 1990 208 0.167 0.114 1.967 9.634 0.480 0.522 23 869142 1777 1990 214 0.191 0.128 1.434 5.572 0.499 0.472 24 869151 1751 1990 240 0.172 0.143 2.093 8.488 0.502 0.626 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.155 0.088 0.820 3.357 0.458 0.507 26 869161 1794 1990 197 0.123 0.058 0.548 3.690 0.461 0.423 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.222 0.130 0.782 3.082 0.517 0.469 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1637 TO 2150 514 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.171 0.107 1.701 7.893 0.435 0.505 STANDARD DEVIATION 74 0.040 0.029 0.822 5.482 0.047 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.166 0.101 1.538 5.878 0.441 0.517 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.053 0.036 0.968 5.165 0.054 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.122 0.058 0.548 3.082 0.350 0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 185 0.140 0.087 1.086 3.896 0.406 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 228 0.193 0.123 2.054 9.061 0.460 0.586 MAXIMUM VALUE 478 0.282 0.173 3.871 24.372 0.517 0.725 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.464 0.234 0.013 -0.488 2.492 -0.131 0.909 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.131 SERIES 869062 AND 869121 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.909 SERIES 869101 AND 869102 148 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.591 0.595 0.684 0.586 0.682 0.652 0.499 0.467 0.455 0.507 SDEV 0.113 0.113 0.096 0.159 0.096 0.243 0.291 0.304 0.262 0.234 SERR 0.046 0.036 0.030 0.050 0.012 0.021 0.019 0.020 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.895 0.897 0.935 0.940 0.974 0.975 0.958 0.955 0.955 0.964 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.466 0.461 SDEV 0.233 0.237 SERR 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.958 0.957 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.158 0.087 1.337 6.684 0.396 0.521 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.447 0.218 0.011 166 348 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.07 2.36 1.01 1.29 3.65 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.69 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 52. 99. 188. 240. 482. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.520 0.520 0.430 0.376 0.349 0.329 0.289 0.266 0.234 0.212 PACF 0.520 0.342 0.115 0.046 0.057 0.060 0.013 0.011 -0.002 0.003 95% C.L. 0.088 0.110 0.127 0.138 0.146 0.152 0.158 0.162 0.165 0.168 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.388 0.294 0.327 0.117 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035914 0.18399325 2 869012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062715 0.23315015 3 869021 1 0.30039325 0.06817884 0.00000000 0.11953215 4 869022 1 0.24892959 0.01218873 0.00000000 0.07863452 5 869041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027844 0.26070771 6 869051 1 0.20614839 0.00812424 0.00000000 0.06132876 7 869052 1 0.23213267 0.00834222 0.00000000 0.06086843 8 869061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081831 0.28981873 9 869062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00168616 0.37850031 10 869072 1 0.33954090 0.03313618 0.00000000 0.07284130 11 869082 1 0.19585326 0.04264558 0.00000000 0.10989215 12 869091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046638 0.15650326 13 869092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036285 0.13638882 14 869101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035726 0.11984945 15 869102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023227 0.14857419 16 869111 1 0.31709805 0.04518376 0.00000000 0.11017525 17 869112 1 0.36871138 0.04858727 0.00000000 0.11574076 18 869121 1 0.20715301 0.02472106 0.00000000 0.09397680 19 869122 1 0.54678214 0.16601045 0.00000000 0.13386197 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 1 0.59437537 0.09886363 0.00000000 0.17916375 21 869132 1 0.39200065 0.00899305 0.00000000 0.04480140 22 869141 1 0.25676128 0.02167463 0.00000000 0.11168919 23 869142 1 0.18718222 0.03445824 0.00000000 0.16656266 24 869151 1 0.51444584 0.02980001 0.00000000 0.10156897 25 869152 1 0.27110314 0.04570559 0.00000000 0.12558922 26 869161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004740 0.11850513 27 869162 1 0.27725875 0.03543957 0.00000000 0.18346952 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.005 0.473 0.902 4.234 0.345 0.532 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.067 0.701 2.377 12.940 0.384 0.643 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.999 0.506 1.933 12.131 0.413 0.421 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.003 0.451 1.076 4.371 0.381 0.342 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.996 0.665 1.450 5.604 0.500 0.445 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.002 0.412 0.775 4.394 0.349 0.457 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.001 0.407 0.905 4.120 0.349 0.407 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.999 0.398 0.889 4.157 0.369 0.255 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.994 0.577 3.379 22.029 0.447 0.240 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.003 0.505 1.122 4.264 0.355 0.523 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.999 0.584 2.814 21.811 0.458 0.427 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.504 0.469 3.134 0.415 0.507 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.999 0.570 1.087 4.888 0.453 0.435 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.577 3.375 20.408 0.451 0.121 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.654 3.875 25.018 0.456 0.195 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.430 0.587 4.135 0.430 0.282 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.468 0.725 3.962 0.440 0.296 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.999 0.459 0.688 4.620 0.451 0.349 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.553 2.034 11.288 0.425 0.380 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.001 0.613 2.380 13.970 0.498 0.333 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.007 0.499 1.290 5.671 0.393 0.430 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.567 1.584 7.296 0.477 0.348 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.650 1.541 6.544 0.497 0.424 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.002 0.517 1.064 6.211 0.500 0.331 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.999 0.524 0.626 3.487 0.460 0.423 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.474 0.570 3.705 0.459 0.424 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.999 0.536 0.940 4.322 0.508 0.377 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.003 0.529 1.498 8.471 0.432 0.383 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.013 0.082 0.958 6.629 0.051 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.517 1.087 4.888 0.447 0.407 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.002 0.107 1.152 7.514 0.071 0.100 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.994 0.398 0.469 3.134 0.345 0.121 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 0.999 0.470 0.832 4.195 0.389 0.332 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.001 0.577 1.984 11.710 0.460 0.432 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.067 0.701 3.875 25.018 0.508 0.643 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 869012 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 869021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 869022 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 869041 -67 322 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 869051 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 869052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 869061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 869062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 869072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 869082 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 869091 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 869092 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 869101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 869102 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 869111 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 869112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 869121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 869122 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 869132 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 869141 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 869142 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 869151 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 869152 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 869161 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 869162 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.990 0.433 1.161 6.945 0.345 0.468 2 869012 1667 1990 324 0.982 0.469 1.335 6.074 0.384 0.396 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.995 0.398 0.685 4.385 0.413 0.190 4 869022 1743 1988 246 0.995 0.402 0.784 3.882 0.381 0.244 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.990 0.630 1.561 7.129 0.500 0.394 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.994 0.350 0.197 2.857 0.349 0.280 7 869052 1646 1990 345 0.998 0.387 0.837 4.160 0.349 0.352 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.998 0.388 0.871 4.047 0.368 0.234 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.996 0.499 2.611 16.262 0.445 0.154 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.987 0.430 0.996 3.709 0.355 0.380 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.996 0.470 0.993 5.882 0.458 0.250 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.998 0.501 0.524 3.319 0.415 0.501 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.998 0.565 1.157 5.253 0.453 0.427 14 869101 1842 1990 149 0.998 0.574 3.449 21.189 0.451 0.110 15 869102 1843 1990 148 0.997 0.642 4.128 28.755 0.456 0.159 16 869111 1764 1990 227 0.998 0.411 0.398 2.976 0.430 0.232 17 869112 1762 1990 229 0.997 0.463 0.796 4.142 0.440 0.274 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.991 0.411 0.440 4.350 0.451 0.185 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.985 0.451 1.652 9.120 0.425 0.155 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 0.992 0.552 1.749 9.037 0.498 0.259 21 869132 1766 1988 223 0.994 0.454 1.082 4.929 0.393 0.331 22 869141 1783 1990 208 0.996 0.553 1.637 7.460 0.477 0.296 23 869142 1777 1990 214 0.992 0.625 1.408 5.590 0.497 0.395 24 869151 1751 1990 240 0.995 0.485 0.705 3.971 0.500 0.270 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.995 0.467 0.326 3.089 0.460 0.326 26 869161 1794 1990 197 0.993 0.446 0.439 3.641 0.460 0.353 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.995 0.482 0.633 3.327 0.508 0.267 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 0.994 0.479 1.206 6.870 0.432 0.292 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.004 0.079 0.921 5.999 0.051 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.995 0.467 0.993 4.385 0.445 0.274 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.005 0.106 0.825 3.242 0.072 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.982 0.350 0.197 2.857 0.345 0.110 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 0.992 0.420 0.659 3.796 0.388 0.233 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 0.997 0.527 1.484 7.037 0.460 0.367 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 0.998 0.642 4.128 28.755 0.508 0.501 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.477 0.177 0.010 -1.206 4.613 -0.117 0.915 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.117 SERIES 869041 AND 869121 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.915 SERIES 869101 AND 869102 148 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.503 0.638 0.683 0.597 0.638 0.592 0.542 0.460 0.483 0.499 SDEV 0.131 0.080 0.086 0.169 0.102 0.211 0.296 0.317 0.257 0.242 SERR 0.053 0.025 0.027 0.054 0.013 0.018 0.019 0.021 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.856 0.913 0.934 0.942 0.968 0.968 0.964 0.954 0.960 0.963 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.444 0.489 SDEV 0.210 0.188 SERR 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.954 0.961 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.966 0.477 1.481 9.268 0.424 0.355 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.250 0.084 0.101 139 375 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.07 1.00 1.14 2.21 145.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.74 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.354 0.375 0.229 0.164 0.151 0.103 0.084 0.024 -0.025 -0.037 PACF 0.354 0.285 0.041 -0.011 0.043 0.008 -0.001 -0.048 -0.067 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.088 0.099 0.109 0.113 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.198 0.253 0.285 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.313 0.371 0.207 0.098 0.155 0.047 0.020 -0.003 -0.075 -0.118 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.313 2 0.219 0.302 3 0.207 0.294 0.038 4 0.210 0.318 0.055 -0.081 5 0.217 0.313 0.026 -0.099 0.090 6 0.219 0.311 0.027 -0.094 0.094 -0.017 7 0.218 0.317 0.021 -0.092 0.114 -0.004 -0.064 8 0.216 0.317 0.023 -0.094 0.114 0.004 -0.059 -0.023 9 0.215 0.313 0.023 -0.087 0.108 0.005 -0.039 -0.009 -0.062 10 0.209 0.312 0.019 -0.087 0.120 -0.004 -0.037 0.023 -0.039 -0.105 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4942.41 4891.31 4844.08 4845.34 4843.99 4841.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4843.64 4843.55 4845.28 4845.31 4841.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.219 0.302 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.05 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.03 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.219 0.350 0.143 0.137 0.073 0.057 0.035 0.025 0.016 0.0110 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 869011 2 0.250 0.379 0.194 2 869012 2 0.227 0.289 0.271 3 869021 2 0.094 0.151 0.207 4 869022 2 0.109 0.189 0.227 5 869041 2 0.186 0.319 0.192 6 869051 2 0.112 0.230 0.181 7 869052 2 0.203 0.248 0.297 8 869061 2 0.110 0.182 0.224 9 869062 2 0.057 0.131 0.148 10 869072 2 0.169 0.329 0.140 11 869082 2 0.087 0.210 0.160 12 869091 2 0.263 0.447 0.112 13 869092 2 0.199 0.367 0.141 14 869101 2 0.031 0.096 0.127 15 869102 2 0.066 0.126 0.205 16 869111 2 0.098 0.183 0.215 17 869112 2 0.109 0.223 0.187 18 869121 2 0.075 0.147 0.205 19 869122 2 0.042 0.134 0.136 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 869131 2 0.125 0.196 0.244 21 869132 2 0.151 0.262 0.212 22 869141 2 0.102 0.259 0.125 23 869142 2 0.173 0.339 0.141 24 869151 2 0.164 0.187 0.310 25 869152 2 0.211 0.221 0.323 26 869161 2 0.151 0.300 0.158 27 869162 2 0.208 0.174 0.349 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.140 0.234 0.201 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.064 0.088 0.064 MEDIAN 2 0.125 0.221 0.194 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.097 0.117 0.081 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.031 0.096 0.112 LOWER HINGE 2 0.096 0.178 0.144 UPPER HINGE 2 0.193 0.294 0.226 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.263 0.447 0.349 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.375 1.379 9.432 0.406 0.000 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.414 1.288 7.086 0.427 -0.026 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.382 0.748 4.445 0.434 -0.028 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.379 0.618 3.988 0.419 -0.004 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.004 0.560 1.675 8.824 0.558 0.008 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.330 0.150 3.486 0.385 -0.010 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.346 0.634 4.193 0.390 -0.013 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.368 0.875 4.351 0.402 0.021 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.487 2.935 19.296 0.470 0.016 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.392 1.018 4.239 0.410 0.010 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.448 1.116 6.880 0.484 -0.002 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.001 0.428 0.610 3.780 0.496 0.003 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.505 1.428 6.686 0.526 0.000 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.566 3.788 24.161 0.479 -0.007 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.620 4.378 31.352 0.494 0.003 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.389 0.306 2.999 0.458 -0.004 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.437 0.849 4.286 0.470 -0.008 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.001 0.392 0.460 5.240 0.461 -0.001 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.441 1.770 9.898 0.434 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.517 1.822 9.477 0.506 0.013 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.418 0.972 5.269 0.450 -0.002 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.524 1.864 8.939 0.534 -0.002 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.001 0.566 1.663 6.796 0.563 0.003 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.444 0.560 3.961 0.533 -0.013 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.001 0.415 0.393 3.365 0.487 -0.039 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.411 0.349 3.402 0.498 -0.012 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.434 0.423 3.246 0.544 -0.061 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.444 1.262 7.743 0.471 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.001 0.075 1.033 6.769 0.052 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.428 0.972 5.240 0.470 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.105 1.084 4.907 0.072 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.330 0.150 2.999 0.385 -0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.391 0.585 3.974 0.430 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.496 1.669 8.881 0.502 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.004 0.620 4.378 31.352 0.563 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.450 0.170 0.009 -1.177 4.826 -0.165 0.910 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.165 SERIES 869041 AND 869121 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.910 SERIES 869101 AND 869102 148 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.435 0.621 0.684 0.672 0.684 0.558 0.505 0.436 0.472 0.462 SDEV 0.161 0.085 0.072 0.111 0.084 0.178 0.266 0.301 0.250 0.246 SERR 0.066 0.027 0.023 0.035 0.010 0.015 0.018 0.020 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.819 0.907 0.935 0.958 0.974 0.963 0.959 0.950 0.958 0.957 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.372 0.480 SDEV 0.213 0.190 SERR 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.939 0.960 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.983 0.425 1.576 11.322 0.462 -0.035 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.219 0.076 0.092 139 375 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.53 1.00 1.12 2.65 193.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.78 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.035 0.058 0.044 0.000 0.056 0.034 0.052 0.006 -0.042 -0.023 PACF -0.035 0.057 0.048 0.000 0.051 0.036 0.049 0.001 -0.051 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.090 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 0.002 0.044 -0.002 0.052 0.037 0.053 0.005 -0.045 -0.023 PACF -0.003 0.002 0.044 -0.002 0.052 0.036 0.054 0.001 -0.048 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.003 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.983 0.475 1.469 9.319 0.426 0.341 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.341 0.396 0.246 0.192 0.171 0.124 0.100 0.041 -0.014 -0.028 PACF 0.341 0.316 0.057 0.000 0.041 0.010 -0.002 -0.046 -0.073 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.088 0.098 0.110 0.114 0.116 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.208 0.233 0.317 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES