RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 869 1 Solenoya-River WIDTH_RING LASI - 869 2 Russia Siberian larch 130 6807-8503 1637 1990 - 869 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 869011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 76 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1833 / 1921 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 869012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 2 GAPS / 1860 1860 / 1910 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 869021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1807 1807 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 869022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 88 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 869041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1970 1970 / 2067 2067 / 2133 2134 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 869052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 72 IN 2 GAPS / 1867 1937 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 869082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 5 GAPS / 1828 1835 / 1869 1869 / 1933 1933 / 1935 1936 / / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 869091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 869132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 869152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 869162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1883 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.417 0.232 1.233 4.793 0.331 0.740 2 869012 1667 1990 324 0.489 0.311 0.955 3.322 0.366 0.759 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.562 0.338 1.668 6.995 0.396 0.637 4 869022 1743 1988 246 0.748 0.505 1.046 3.718 0.366 0.695 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.549 0.303 0.814 3.359 0.437 0.531 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.473 0.226 0.866 3.779 0.346 0.654 7 869052 1646 1990 345 0.529 0.279 1.157 4.798 0.342 0.713 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.779 0.314 0.580 3.377 0.369 0.425 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.940 0.537 1.140 4.067 0.413 0.504 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.593 0.417 0.914 2.652 0.360 0.814 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.449 0.266 1.036 4.048 0.425 0.725 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.632 0.315 0.552 3.242 0.411 0.605 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.579 0.311 0.700 3.461 0.424 0.607 14 869101 1842 1990 149 0.527 0.257 1.115 4.720 0.405 0.469 15 869102 1843 1990 148 0.575 0.290 1.087 4.657 0.437 0.449 16 869111 1764 1990 227 0.576 0.405 1.902 7.064 0.426 0.771 17 869112 1762 1990 229 0.608 0.452 1.867 6.589 0.451 0.758 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.525 0.418 2.015 9.039 0.456 0.692 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.565 0.402 2.112 9.368 0.406 0.719 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 0.818 0.537 2.072 8.768 0.404 0.690 21 869132 1766 1988 223 0.930 0.584 1.618 5.957 0.368 0.689 22 869141 1783 1990 208 0.630 0.398 1.109 4.201 0.466 0.631 23 869142 1777 1990 214 0.721 0.470 1.093 4.146 0.485 0.706 24 869151 1751 1990 240 0.640 0.549 1.767 5.878 0.463 0.815 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.523 0.300 0.850 3.959 0.445 0.634 26 869161 1794 1990 197 0.454 0.221 0.497 3.404 0.477 0.432 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.801 0.428 0.427 2.631 0.438 0.552 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1637 TO 2150 514 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.616 0.373 1.192 4.889 0.412 0.645 STANDARD DEVIATION 74 0.140 0.108 0.507 1.928 0.043 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.576 0.338 1.093 4.146 0.413 0.689 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.155 0.145 0.785 2.485 0.073 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.417 0.221 0.427 2.631 0.331 0.425 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 185 0.526 0.295 0.858 3.432 0.368 0.578 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 228 0.681 0.440 1.643 5.918 0.442 0.722 MAXIMUM VALUE 478 0.940 0.584 2.112 9.368 0.485 0.815 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.555 0.240 0.013 -0.801 2.979 -0.131 0.965 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.131 SERIES 869041 AND 869121 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.965 SERIES 869111 AND 869112 227 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.713 0.685 0.693 0.456 0.677 0.748 0.582 0.554 0.542 0.616 SDEV 0.087 0.122 0.114 0.264 0.119 0.211 0.344 0.368 0.293 0.227 SERR 0.035 0.038 0.036 0.083 0.015 0.018 0.023 0.024 0.018 0.013 EPS 0.936 0.928 0.937 0.902 0.973 0.984 0.970 0.968 0.968 0.977 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.602 0.558 SDEV 0.222 0.266 SERR 0.012 0.016 EPS 0.975 0.970 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.547 0.292 0.834 3.646 0.392 0.665 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.592 0.322 -0.011 137 377 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.74 1.97 1.00 1.21 3.18 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.79 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 52. 99. 188. 240. 482. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.664 0.636 0.538 0.485 0.451 0.422 0.397 0.368 0.350 0.309 PACF 0.664 0.350 0.065 0.034 0.064 0.055 0.035 0.012 0.026 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.088 0.121 0.145 0.160 0.171 0.180 0.187 0.194 0.199 0.204 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.521 0.398 0.332 0.073 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00141065 0.65706319 2 869012 1 0.86935145 0.00520563 0.00000000 0.04460011 3 869021 1 1.13943899 0.05277003 0.00000000 0.46520889 4 869022 1 1.29564035 0.01076357 0.00000000 0.18385196 5 869041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061107 0.69341648 6 869051 1 0.57361507 0.00686508 0.00000000 0.24963897 7 869052 1 0.76507699 0.00747087 0.00000000 0.20352237 8 869061 1 0.50451493 0.00897792 0.00000000 0.46775240 9 869062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00637443 1.30343080 10 869072 1 1.22068572 0.02527358 0.00000000 0.15107878 11 869082 1 0.69544721 0.03650739 0.00000000 0.35273898 12 869091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00131221 0.50469351 13 869092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00125527 0.45092815 14 869101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197330 0.37857971 15 869102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00150129 0.46349144 16 869111 1 1.62451100 0.04459809 0.00000000 0.41952807 17 869112 1 1.95298100 0.04810264 0.00000000 0.43475917 18 869121 1 1.16995347 0.02482927 0.00000000 0.27513769 19 869122 1 1.94014728 0.09948462 0.00000000 0.46589413 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 1 2.10320735 0.06529595 0.00000000 0.65455699 21 869132 1 1.49436164 0.00649751 0.00000000 0.08902063 22 869141 1 1.06528795 0.02182985 0.00000000 0.40090403 23 869142 1 1.17403519 0.03060357 0.00000000 0.54456365 24 869151 1 1.96749294 0.02559816 0.00000000 0.32489446 25 869152 1 0.89935958 0.03875639 0.00000000 0.40919116 26 869161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014235 0.44027299 27 869162 1 0.89286095 0.03284687 0.00000000 0.66250414 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.009 0.495 0.689 3.180 0.323 0.687 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.005 0.523 1.001 3.778 0.355 0.666 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.999 0.472 0.886 4.841 0.396 0.541 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.008 0.413 0.516 3.928 0.353 0.453 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.998 0.539 0.774 3.478 0.455 0.495 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.367 0.291 3.371 0.345 0.435 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.002 0.384 0.724 4.772 0.328 0.512 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.378 0.268 2.532 0.365 0.377 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.993 0.526 1.409 5.253 0.408 0.490 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.013 0.533 0.867 3.616 0.357 0.663 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.999 0.557 0.972 4.936 0.445 0.625 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.470 0.168 2.569 0.407 0.562 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.499 0.324 2.763 0.421 0.549 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.001 0.456 0.859 4.119 0.402 0.402 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.001 0.495 1.070 4.801 0.434 0.425 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.449 0.494 3.681 0.425 0.445 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.470 0.579 3.666 0.449 0.432 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.999 0.543 0.892 4.155 0.454 0.599 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.001 0.538 0.971 4.367 0.404 0.656 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.001 0.489 1.407 7.523 0.402 0.528 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.004 0.468 1.074 4.746 0.352 0.579 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.488 0.592 3.197 0.463 0.444 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.552 0.662 3.446 0.483 0.591 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.006 0.520 0.964 5.609 0.461 0.509 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.999 0.509 0.296 2.909 0.459 0.540 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.487 0.489 3.316 0.475 0.432 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.999 0.495 0.495 3.239 0.436 0.481 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.001 0.486 0.731 3.992 0.409 0.523 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.004 0.052 0.330 1.088 0.048 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.495 0.724 3.681 0.408 0.512 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.002 0.055 0.473 1.481 0.091 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.993 0.367 0.168 2.532 0.323 0.377 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 0.999 0.469 0.495 3.278 0.361 0.444 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.001 0.524 0.967 4.759 0.452 0.585 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.013 0.557 1.409 7.523 0.483 0.687 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 869012 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 869021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 869022 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 869041 -67 322 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 869051 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 869052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 869061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 869062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 869072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 869082 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 869091 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 869092 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 869101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 869102 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 869111 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 869112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 869121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 869122 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 869132 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 869141 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 869142 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 869151 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 869152 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 869161 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 869162 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.989 0.438 0.438 2.818 0.323 0.625 2 869012 1667 1990 324 0.987 0.451 0.747 3.520 0.355 0.559 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.994 0.386 0.206 3.989 0.397 0.305 4 869022 1743 1988 246 0.995 0.369 0.295 4.158 0.353 0.358 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.994 0.517 0.838 3.925 0.455 0.462 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.996 0.331 -0.088 2.832 0.345 0.284 7 869052 1646 1990 345 0.997 0.348 0.218 3.092 0.328 0.420 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.997 0.369 0.292 2.726 0.365 0.347 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.995 0.461 0.846 3.640 0.407 0.397 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.979 0.395 0.458 3.210 0.357 0.438 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.995 0.467 0.211 2.848 0.444 0.452 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.998 0.467 0.217 2.764 0.407 0.550 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.998 0.498 0.381 2.918 0.421 0.547 14 869101 1842 1990 149 0.997 0.448 0.981 4.841 0.402 0.366 15 869102 1843 1990 148 0.998 0.487 1.173 5.557 0.434 0.390 16 869111 1764 1990 227 0.997 0.426 0.268 2.974 0.425 0.390 17 869112 1762 1990 229 0.998 0.459 0.602 3.887 0.449 0.395 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.979 0.424 0.311 3.628 0.454 0.342 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.974 0.391 0.315 3.595 0.404 0.386 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 0.993 0.441 0.873 5.381 0.402 0.460 21 869132 1766 1988 223 0.994 0.420 0.709 3.942 0.352 0.499 22 869141 1783 1990 208 0.995 0.468 0.605 3.498 0.463 0.372 23 869142 1777 1990 214 0.994 0.533 0.590 3.100 0.483 0.557 24 869151 1751 1990 240 0.994 0.466 0.447 3.283 0.461 0.407 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.995 0.460 0.007 2.547 0.459 0.425 26 869161 1794 1990 197 0.994 0.464 0.442 3.464 0.475 0.366 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.995 0.450 0.349 3.212 0.436 0.359 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 0.993 0.438 0.471 3.531 0.409 0.424 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.006 0.049 0.300 0.768 0.048 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.995 0.450 0.438 3.464 0.407 0.397 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.003 0.059 0.377 0.961 0.091 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.974 0.331 -0.088 2.547 0.323 0.284 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 0.994 0.408 0.280 2.946 0.361 0.366 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 0.997 0.466 0.657 3.906 0.452 0.461 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 0.998 0.533 1.173 5.557 0.483 0.625 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.600 0.193 0.011 -2.094 7.411 -0.111 0.943 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.111 SERIES 869041 AND 869131 191 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.943 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.618 0.717 0.670 0.478 0.677 0.712 0.622 0.550 0.585 0.609 SDEV 0.115 0.097 0.118 0.251 0.128 0.180 0.352 0.373 0.286 0.237 SERR 0.047 0.031 0.037 0.080 0.016 0.015 0.023 0.025 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.905 0.937 0.931 0.910 0.973 0.981 0.974 0.968 0.973 0.976 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.582 0.609 SDEV 0.201 0.210 SERR 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.973 0.976 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.974 0.433 0.660 4.043 0.399 0.473 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.196 0.061 0.101 131 383 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.72 1.00 1.11 1.82 200.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.81 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.472 0.423 0.277 0.195 0.174 0.101 0.068 0.006 -0.059 -0.079 PACF 0.472 0.257 0.010 -0.018 0.049 -0.026 -0.023 -0.052 -0.082 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.088 0.106 0.118 0.123 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.275 0.351 0.257 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.444 0.394 0.263 0.166 0.168 0.056 0.015 -0.014 -0.097 -0.112 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.444 2 0.335 0.246 3 0.327 0.236 0.030 4 0.328 0.244 0.041 -0.035 5 0.331 0.241 0.025 -0.056 0.065 6 0.335 0.237 0.027 -0.039 0.089 -0.071 7 0.331 0.242 0.025 -0.038 0.102 -0.052 -0.055 8 0.331 0.241 0.027 -0.038 0.102 -0.049 -0.050 -0.016 9 0.329 0.237 0.022 -0.029 0.098 -0.046 -0.028 0.015 -0.093 10 0.324 0.237 0.021 -0.032 0.104 -0.048 -0.026 0.028 -0.074 -0.057 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4958.09 4847.48 4817.51 4819.05 4820.42 4820.24 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4819.65 4820.08 4821.96 4819.52 4819.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.335 0.246 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.52 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.48 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.335 0.358 0.202 0.155 0.102 0.072 0.049 0.034 0.023 0.0162 0.011 0.008 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 869011 2 0.415 0.513 0.183 2 869012 2 0.359 0.424 0.243 3 869021 2 0.153 0.236 0.231 4 869022 2 0.205 0.263 0.267 5 869041 2 0.233 0.392 0.153 6 869051 2 0.163 0.209 0.266 7 869052 2 0.269 0.284 0.324 8 869061 2 0.213 0.253 0.280 9 869062 2 0.233 0.294 0.265 10 869072 2 0.286 0.292 0.337 11 869082 2 0.231 0.375 0.176 12 869091 2 0.320 0.469 0.150 13 869092 2 0.310 0.490 0.108 14 869101 2 0.162 0.301 0.179 15 869102 2 0.197 0.305 0.219 16 869111 2 0.182 0.322 0.177 17 869112 2 0.167 0.351 0.112 18 869121 2 0.140 0.290 0.154 19 869122 2 0.185 0.309 0.201 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 869131 2 0.247 0.365 0.208 21 869132 2 0.289 0.413 0.178 22 869141 2 0.171 0.301 0.193 23 869142 2 0.325 0.483 0.135 24 869151 2 0.233 0.294 0.278 25 869152 2 0.258 0.305 0.282 26 869161 2 0.167 0.302 0.175 27 869162 2 0.186 0.292 0.187 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.233 0.338 0.210 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.070 0.081 0.061 MEDIAN 2 0.231 0.305 0.193 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.101 0.091 0.090 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.140 0.209 0.108 LOWER HINGE 2 0.177 0.292 0.175 UPPER HINGE 2 0.277 0.383 0.265 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.415 0.513 0.337 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.335 0.360 3.085 0.378 0.004 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.362 0.656 4.823 0.410 -0.023 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.358 0.254 4.107 0.423 -0.025 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.331 0.214 4.962 0.394 -0.034 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.001 0.449 0.805 4.744 0.508 -0.001 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.306 -0.218 3.417 0.366 -0.038 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.298 0.010 3.463 0.356 -0.027 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.331 0.289 2.569 0.382 0.043 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.407 0.823 3.827 0.431 0.033 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.334 0.533 4.306 0.384 0.012 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.001 0.408 -0.027 3.069 0.479 -0.002 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.385 0.274 3.042 0.475 0.002 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.412 0.486 3.485 0.495 -0.002 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.410 1.106 6.063 0.453 -0.002 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.437 1.250 6.758 0.472 0.016 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.385 0.277 3.190 0.466 -0.010 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.419 0.728 4.717 0.480 -0.004 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.394 0.216 3.949 0.488 0.005 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.353 0.303 4.048 0.426 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.383 0.857 5.290 0.428 0.001 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.358 0.624 4.379 0.410 -0.025 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.426 0.560 3.645 0.507 -0.005 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.001 0.436 0.370 3.144 0.528 0.008 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.409 0.400 4.095 0.494 -0.016 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.399 0.066 3.095 0.483 -0.036 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.423 0.558 4.517 0.505 -0.016 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.002 0.406 0.424 3.880 0.475 -0.031 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.383 0.452 4.062 0.448 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.001 0.042 0.338 0.972 0.050 0.020 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.394 0.400 3.949 0.466 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.056 0.376 1.314 0.075 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.298 -0.218 2.569 0.356 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.355 0.264 3.303 0.410 -0.024 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.411 0.640 4.617 0.486 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.002 0.449 1.250 6.758 0.528 0.043 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.584 0.193 0.011 -2.103 7.617 -0.163 0.931 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.163 SERIES 869041 AND 869062 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.931 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.545 0.680 0.652 0.630 0.752 0.691 0.587 0.523 0.590 0.569 SDEV 0.101 0.092 0.114 0.137 0.086 0.151 0.288 0.333 0.308 0.278 SERR 0.041 0.029 0.036 0.043 0.011 0.013 0.019 0.022 0.019 0.015 EPS 0.876 0.926 0.925 0.949 0.981 0.979 0.970 0.964 0.974 0.972 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.509 0.621 SDEV 0.244 0.211 SERR 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.964 0.977 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.994 0.365 0.585 4.881 0.425 -0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.162 0.053 0.085 133 381 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.93 1.00 1.15 2.07 14.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.81 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 0.057 0.030 -0.002 0.071 0.017 0.037 0.012 -0.065 -0.061 PACF -0.007 0.057 0.031 -0.005 0.068 0.017 0.030 0.007 -0.070 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.090 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.001 0.027 -0.006 0.068 0.017 0.037 0.014 -0.067 -0.061 PACF -0.002 0.001 0.027 -0.005 0.068 0.017 0.038 0.011 -0.067 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.002 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.992 0.425 0.644 4.129 0.384 0.460 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.460 0.415 0.287 0.210 0.189 0.118 0.083 0.026 -0.046 -0.069 PACF 0.460 0.258 0.037 -0.006 0.047 -0.023 -0.021 -0.046 -0.088 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.088 0.105 0.117 0.123 0.125 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.265 0.341 0.258 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES