RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS026X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 869 1 Solenoya-River DENSITY_MAXIMUM LASI - 869 2 Russia Siberian larch 130 6807-8503 1637 1990 - 869 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 869011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 76 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1833 / 1921 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 869012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 2 GAPS / 1860 1860 / 1910 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 869021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1807 1807 / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 869022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 88 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 869041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1970 1970 / 2067 2067 / 2133 2134 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 869052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 72 IN 2 GAPS / 1867 1937 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 869082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 5 GAPS / 1828 1835 / 1869 1869 / 1933 1933 / 1935 1936 / / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 869091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 869132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 869152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 869162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1883 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.765 0.132 -0.517 2.462 0.165 0.330 2 869012 1667 1990 324 0.766 0.125 -0.598 3.039 0.162 0.300 3 869021 1770 1990 221 0.697 0.096 -0.179 2.805 0.145 0.188 4 869022 1743 1988 246 0.709 0.092 -0.575 3.202 0.136 0.248 5 869041 1669 2150 482 0.759 0.133 -1.089 6.520 0.185 0.163 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.803 0.131 -0.654 3.190 0.167 0.231 7 869052 1646 1990 345 0.781 0.126 -0.478 2.995 0.171 0.195 8 869061 1874 1990 117 0.862 0.094 -1.438 6.003 0.119 0.081 9 869062 1878 1990 113 0.818 0.106 -0.556 3.436 0.137 0.137 10 869072 1637 1735 99 0.743 0.089 -0.378 2.610 0.124 0.207 11 869082 1751 1990 240 0.730 0.127 -0.538 2.832 0.201 0.022 12 869091 1801 1990 190 0.742 0.128 -0.653 2.859 0.180 0.221 13 869092 1788 1990 203 0.735 0.127 -0.690 3.371 0.177 0.229 14 869101 1842 1990 149 0.821 0.124 -1.288 4.748 0.167 0.080 15 869102 1843 1990 148 0.812 0.117 -1.120 4.145 0.165 -0.001 16 869111 1764 1990 227 0.734 0.113 -0.642 3.103 0.156 0.223 17 869112 1762 1990 229 0.719 0.108 -0.125 2.639 0.165 0.099 18 869121 1807 1990 184 0.623 0.108 -0.104 2.353 0.194 0.096 19 869122 1804 1990 187 0.666 0.114 -0.390 2.491 0.187 0.115 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 0.732 0.106 -0.507 2.759 0.149 0.193 21 869132 1766 1988 223 0.662 0.114 -0.441 2.547 0.163 0.281 22 869141 1783 1990 208 0.709 0.120 -0.702 2.691 0.171 0.254 23 869142 1777 1990 214 0.710 0.130 -0.651 2.662 0.184 0.264 24 869151 1751 1990 240 0.726 0.105 -0.490 3.094 0.158 0.137 25 869152 1761 1990 230 0.724 0.120 -0.546 2.788 0.172 0.163 26 869161 1794 1990 197 0.716 0.120 -0.571 2.829 0.175 0.222 27 869162 1763 1990 228 0.709 0.114 -0.556 3.087 0.172 0.156 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1637 TO 2150 514 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.740 0.116 -0.610 3.232 0.165 0.179 STANDARD DEVIATION 74 0.053 0.013 0.312 1.012 0.020 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.732 0.117 -0.556 2.859 0.167 0.193 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.056 0.019 0.170 0.520 0.019 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.623 0.089 -1.438 2.353 0.119 -0.001 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 185 0.710 0.107 -0.654 2.676 0.157 0.126 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 228 0.766 0.126 -0.484 3.196 0.176 0.230 MAXIMUM VALUE 478 0.862 0.133 -0.104 6.520 0.201 0.330 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.604 0.174 0.010 -1.438 4.900 -0.034 0.901 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.034 SERIES 869041 AND 869062 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.901 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.666 0.848 0.834 0.809 0.803 0.762 0.712 0.635 0.651 0.614 SDEV 0.135 0.033 0.067 0.083 0.107 0.216 0.238 0.285 0.225 0.200 SERR 0.055 0.010 0.021 0.026 0.013 0.018 0.016 0.019 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.921 0.971 0.971 0.979 0.986 0.985 0.983 0.977 0.979 0.976 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.585 0.569 SDEV 0.231 0.208 SERR 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.973 0.972 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 0.745 0.126 -1.480 8.980 0.173 0.175 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.064 0.020 0.033 120 394 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.81 1.00 1.10 1.91 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.81 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 52. 99. 188. 240. 482. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.174 0.229 0.122 0.103 0.125 0.041 0.124 -0.022 0.029 -0.023 PACF 0.174 0.205 0.059 0.035 0.076 -0.019 0.080 -0.074 -0.008 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.088 0.091 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.074 0.139 0.205 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 1 0.24330957 0.00291798 0.00000000 0.60497302 2 869012 1 0.38708469 0.00117774 0.00000000 0.43621910 3 869021 1 0.07628360 0.02631642 0.00000000 0.68389946 4 869022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002678 0.69399750 5 869041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011447 0.78076339 6 869051 1 0.11136873 0.01305470 0.00000000 0.77827489 7 869052 1 0.12834558 0.00939356 0.00000000 0.73753560 8 869061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042186 0.83733273 9 869062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041195 0.79492575 10 869072 1 0.06915604 0.02649351 0.00000000 0.71920466 11 869082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028097 0.68747711 12 869091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027041 0.71640718 13 869092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020326 0.75605226 14 869101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042046 0.78994197 15 869102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041042 0.78172094 16 869111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029630 0.70036334 17 869112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009429 0.70780283 18 869121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007153 0.62965965 19 869122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054561 0.61448854 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034715 0.69861060 21 869132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037065 0.70259482 22 869141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002024 0.71110505 23 869142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00068444 0.63628274 24 869151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001520 0.72437620 25 869152 1 0.11191303 0.01795520 0.00000000 0.69291705 26 869161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034750 0.68189216 27 869162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020907 0.68532646 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.168 -0.266 2.371 0.164 0.287 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.161 -0.436 2.870 0.161 0.277 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.135 -0.318 2.608 0.143 0.180 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.125 -0.436 3.096 0.128 0.247 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.000 0.199 -1.925 11.621 0.207 0.165 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.161 -0.647 3.140 0.167 0.189 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.155 -0.411 2.899 0.166 0.156 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.109 -1.280 5.604 0.118 0.063 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.130 -0.420 3.311 0.136 0.125 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.119 -0.239 2.549 0.122 0.179 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.179 -0.498 2.754 0.199 0.096 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.172 -0.617 2.839 0.178 0.206 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.173 -0.699 3.294 0.176 0.226 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.150 -1.228 4.668 0.166 0.065 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.144 -1.036 4.113 0.164 -0.019 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.152 -0.627 3.283 0.156 0.196 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.150 -0.105 2.642 0.164 0.094 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.173 -0.124 2.345 0.193 0.094 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.167 -0.298 2.554 0.186 0.053 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.143 -0.529 2.909 0.148 0.163 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.165 -0.294 2.438 0.162 0.239 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.170 -0.700 2.689 0.170 0.253 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.175 -0.570 2.899 0.183 0.174 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.145 -0.492 3.099 0.158 0.136 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.165 -0.471 2.756 0.172 0.166 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.166 -0.565 2.904 0.175 0.197 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.159 -0.551 3.116 0.167 0.162 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.156 -0.584 3.384 0.164 0.162 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.000 0.020 0.391 1.793 0.022 0.073 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.161 -0.498 2.899 0.166 0.166 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.024 0.273 0.546 0.019 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.109 -1.925 2.345 0.118 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.144 -0.637 2.666 0.157 0.110 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.169 -0.364 3.211 0.176 0.202 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.000 0.199 -0.105 11.621 0.207 0.287 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 869011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 869012 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 869021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 869022 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 869041 -67 322 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 869051 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 869052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 869061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 869062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 869072 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 869082 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 869091 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 869092 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 869101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 869102 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 869111 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 869112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 869121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 869122 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 869131 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 869132 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 869141 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 869142 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 869151 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 869152 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 869161 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 869162 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 0.999 0.162 -0.293 2.436 0.164 0.232 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.157 -0.484 2.982 0.161 0.245 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.131 -0.253 2.585 0.143 0.113 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.118 -0.474 3.127 0.128 0.147 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.000 0.197 -2.004 12.093 0.207 0.142 6 869051 1656 1990 335 0.999 0.152 -0.573 3.152 0.167 0.061 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.153 -0.372 2.840 0.166 0.132 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.106 -1.314 5.544 0.118 -0.003 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.123 -0.644 3.366 0.136 0.036 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.113 -0.153 2.643 0.123 0.077 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.176 -0.375 2.839 0.199 0.047 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.170 -0.628 2.858 0.178 0.193 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.172 -0.690 3.234 0.176 0.219 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.148 -1.181 4.648 0.165 0.033 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.143 -1.024 4.093 0.164 -0.030 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.150 -0.594 3.233 0.156 0.177 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.146 -0.184 2.645 0.164 0.050 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.167 -0.217 2.406 0.193 0.032 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.165 -0.288 2.587 0.186 0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.141 -0.463 2.812 0.148 0.142 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.158 -0.381 2.461 0.162 0.183 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.168 -0.709 2.698 0.170 0.238 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.174 -0.535 2.809 0.183 0.162 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.141 -0.474 3.179 0.158 0.085 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.164 -0.431 2.747 0.172 0.152 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.165 -0.535 2.868 0.175 0.184 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.158 -0.514 3.074 0.167 0.151 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.153 -0.585 3.406 0.164 0.119 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.000 0.021 0.397 1.869 0.022 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.157 -0.484 2.858 0.165 0.142 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.024 0.262 0.535 0.019 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.999 0.106 -2.004 2.406 0.118 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.142 -0.636 2.671 0.157 0.048 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.166 -0.374 3.206 0.176 0.180 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.000 0.197 -0.153 12.093 0.207 0.245 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.635 0.172 0.009 -1.606 5.266 0.017 0.930 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.017 SERIES 869041 AND 869062 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.930 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.694 0.854 0.837 0.804 0.803 0.768 0.721 0.641 0.657 0.623 SDEV 0.120 0.028 0.064 0.085 0.113 0.212 0.231 0.288 0.226 0.197 SERR 0.049 0.009 0.020 0.027 0.014 0.018 0.015 0.019 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.930 0.972 0.971 0.978 0.986 0.986 0.983 0.978 0.980 0.977 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.584 0.585 SDEV 0.234 0.208 SERR 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.973 0.973 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 1.001 0.166 -1.185 7.250 0.176 0.112 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.111 -0.028 0.074 149 365 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.21 1.00 1.13 2.34 24.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.77 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.112 0.172 0.059 0.036 0.047 -0.033 0.057 -0.095 -0.038 -0.099 PACF 0.112 0.161 0.026 0.001 0.032 -0.049 0.052 -0.099 -0.037 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.088 0.089 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.039 0.094 0.161 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.128 0.226 0.046 0.051 -0.022 -0.081 0.047 -0.099 -0.038 -0.133 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.128 2 0.101 0.213 3 0.102 0.214 -0.004 4 0.102 0.214 -0.004 -0.002 5 0.102 0.214 0.004 0.002 -0.038 6 0.098 0.214 0.005 0.021 -0.029 -0.091 7 0.106 0.217 0.003 0.021 -0.046 -0.100 0.082 8 0.112 0.209 -0.001 0.023 -0.046 -0.082 0.090 -0.079 9 0.109 0.213 -0.004 0.021 -0.045 -0.082 0.099 -0.074 -0.044 10 0.105 0.206 0.005 0.013 -0.049 -0.081 0.099 -0.054 -0.034 -0.092 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3925.64 3919.13 3897.17 3899.17 3901.16 3902.42 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3900.10 3898.64 3897.43 3898.43 3896.02 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.101 0.213 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.12 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.52 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.101 0.224 0.044 0.052 0.015 0.013 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.0008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 869011 2 0.099 0.187 0.196 2 869012 2 0.109 0.191 0.220 3 869021 2 0.041 0.096 0.149 4 869022 2 0.053 0.121 0.174 5 869041 2 0.030 0.128 0.101 6 869051 2 0.037 0.053 0.137 7 869052 2 0.073 0.107 0.197 8 869061 2 0.005 -0.003 0.068 9 869062 2 0.012 0.032 0.101 10 869072 2 0.024 0.073 0.060 11 869082 2 0.023 0.040 0.144 12 869091 2 0.069 0.158 0.183 13 869092 2 0.070 0.188 0.148 14 869101 2 0.014 0.029 0.112 15 869102 2 0.008 -0.028 0.081 16 869111 2 0.053 0.153 0.142 17 869112 2 0.043 0.040 0.199 18 869121 2 0.045 0.027 0.161 19 869122 2 0.017 0.015 0.100 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 869131 2 0.035 0.127 0.110 21 869132 2 0.094 0.138 0.249 22 869141 2 0.127 0.175 0.267 23 869142 2 0.073 0.130 0.202 24 869151 2 0.026 0.074 0.133 25 869152 2 0.067 0.120 0.211 26 869161 2 0.077 0.151 0.186 27 869162 2 0.042 0.130 0.141 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.051 0.098 0.154 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.032 0.063 0.054 MEDIAN 2 0.043 0.120 0.148 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.046 0.104 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.005 -0.028 0.060 LOWER HINGE 2 0.025 0.040 0.111 UPPER HINGE 2 0.071 0.144 0.196 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.127 0.191 0.267 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 869011 1660 1990 331 1.000 0.154 -0.322 2.501 0.183 -0.019 2 869012 1667 1990 324 1.000 0.149 -0.462 2.924 0.176 -0.012 3 869021 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.128 -0.311 2.589 0.150 -0.012 4 869022 1743 1988 246 1.000 0.115 -0.515 3.242 0.135 -0.008 5 869041 1669 2150 482 1.001 0.189 -1.580 8.872 0.218 0.007 6 869051 1656 1990 335 1.000 0.150 -0.582 3.150 0.172 -0.017 7 869052 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.149 -0.339 2.805 0.175 -0.026 8 869061 1874 1990 117 1.000 0.106 -1.359 5.704 0.117 0.001 9 869062 1878 1990 113 1.000 0.122 -0.704 3.544 0.137 -0.001 10 869072 1637 1735 99 1.000 0.112 -0.080 2.573 0.128 -0.007 11 869082 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.174 -0.394 2.869 0.201 0.001 12 869091 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.164 -0.561 2.863 0.191 -0.001 13 869092 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.166 -0.492 2.844 0.191 -0.004 14 869101 1842 1990 149 1.000 0.147 -1.140 4.588 0.167 -0.001 15 869102 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.143 -1.060 4.261 0.160 0.002 16 869111 1764 1990 227 1.000 0.146 -0.508 3.067 0.166 0.005 17 869112 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.143 -0.240 2.665 0.166 0.007 18 869121 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.165 -0.215 2.466 0.188 0.022 19 869122 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.164 -0.281 2.624 0.184 0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 869131 1800 1990 191 1.000 0.139 -0.364 2.744 0.157 -0.006 21 869132 1766 1988 223 1.000 0.150 -0.387 2.825 0.171 -0.001 22 869141 1783 1990 208 1.000 0.157 -0.502 2.566 0.181 -0.014 23 869142 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.168 -0.549 2.680 0.194 -0.018 24 869151 1751 1990 240 1.000 0.140 -0.469 3.184 0.162 -0.004 25 869152 1761 1990 230 1.000 0.159 -0.428 2.865 0.180 -0.006 26 869161 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.159 -0.479 2.878 0.183 0.017 27 869162 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.155 -0.516 2.984 0.177 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 226 1.000 0.149 -0.550 3.292 0.171 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 81 0.000 0.019 0.347 1.326 0.023 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.150 -0.479 2.865 0.175 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.020 0.203 0.494 0.022 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.106 -1.580 2.466 0.117 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.141 -0.555 2.673 0.161 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.162 -0.352 3.167 0.184 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 482 1.001 0.189 -0.080 8.872 0.218 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 330 0.628 0.179 0.010 -1.497 4.822 0.008 0.935 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.008 SERIES 869041 AND 869062 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.935 SERIES 869091 AND 869092 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.02 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 6. 10. 10. 10. 66. 136. 231. 231. 276. 325. RBAR 0.709 0.865 0.856 0.833 0.799 0.762 0.726 0.637 0.644 0.598 SDEV 0.107 0.034 0.052 0.067 0.123 0.209 0.221 0.287 0.235 0.231 SERR 0.044 0.011 0.017 0.021 0.015 0.018 0.015 0.019 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.935 0.974 0.975 0.982 0.986 0.985 0.984 0.977 0.979 0.975 NSS 5.9 5.9 6.6 11.0 17.2 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 325. 276. RBAR 0.552 0.591 SDEV 0.276 0.214 SERR 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.970 0.974 NSS 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 1.001 0.164 -1.202 7.267 0.186 -0.025 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.077 -0.019 0.063 157 357 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.12 1.00 1.15 2.28 298.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.76 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.025 0.021 0.023 0.010 0.030 -0.036 0.075 -0.087 -0.007 -0.067 PACF -0.025 0.021 0.024 0.011 0.030 -0.036 0.072 -0.084 -0.012 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.090 0.090 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.000 0.024 0.012 0.027 -0.032 0.072 -0.083 -0.010 -0.068 PACF -0.001 0.000 0.024 0.012 0.027 -0.033 0.071 -0.085 -0.008 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1637 2150 514 1.001 0.169 -1.187 7.464 0.178 0.136 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.135 0.230 0.081 0.061 0.054 -0.029 0.055 -0.101 -0.043 -0.110 PACF 0.135 0.216 0.029 0.000 0.026 -0.055 0.048 -0.104 -0.044 -0.067 95% C.L. 0.088 0.090 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.097 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.065 0.106 0.216 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES