RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS041E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS041E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 885 1 Nonburg WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 885 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 75 6536-5038 1638 1990 - 885 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 885472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 885502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1886 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 885521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1798 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 885572 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1740 1740 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 885581 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1751 1751 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 885611 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 48 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 885612 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 48 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 0.529 0.380 1.544 5.532 0.310 0.833 2 885472 1778 1990 213 0.567 0.384 1.385 4.986 0.301 0.810 3 885481 1728 1990 263 0.475 0.378 1.616 4.766 0.282 0.905 4 885482 1731 1990 260 0.476 0.378 1.845 5.578 0.266 0.920 5 885491 1725 1990 266 0.604 0.333 0.973 3.168 0.266 0.791 6 885492 1727 1990 264 0.588 0.379 0.878 3.096 0.298 0.842 7 885501 1693 1990 298 0.464 0.592 2.476 8.937 0.392 0.898 8 885502 1638 1990 353 0.562 0.638 2.355 9.815 0.364 0.858 9 885511 1726 1990 265 0.460 0.181 0.551 2.891 0.244 0.730 10 885512 1770 1990 221 0.349 0.120 0.592 3.031 0.232 0.673 11 885521 1768 1990 223 0.422 0.205 0.461 2.616 0.253 0.803 12 885522 1768 1990 223 0.447 0.259 0.488 2.849 0.286 0.850 13 885551 1774 1990 217 0.471 0.233 0.739 3.009 0.294 0.765 14 885552 1776 1990 215 0.571 0.255 0.548 3.658 0.257 0.754 15 885571 1670 1912 243 0.548 0.545 1.372 3.857 0.359 0.931 16 885572 1663 1990 328 0.558 0.583 1.507 4.458 0.417 0.908 17 885581 1723 1990 268 0.485 0.513 1.736 4.950 0.345 0.946 18 885582 1723 1990 268 0.605 0.517 1.594 4.958 0.272 0.939 19 885611 1701 1990 290 0.355 0.266 2.414 9.714 0.326 0.870 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 0.314 0.215 1.102 3.860 0.338 0.810 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1638 TO 1990 353 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 253 0.493 0.368 1.309 4.786 0.305 0.842 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.086 0.153 0.655 2.235 0.051 0.075 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 251 0.480 0.378 1.379 4.159 0.296 0.846 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.111 0.271 1.010 2.195 0.075 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 200 0.314 0.120 0.461 2.616 0.232 0.673 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 220 0.453 0.244 0.666 3.064 0.266 0.797 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 0.565 0.515 1.676 5.259 0.341 0.907 MAXIMUM VALUE 350 0.605 0.638 2.476 9.815 0.417 0.946 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.402 0.317 0.023 -0.294 2.243 -0.304 0.987 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.304 SERIES 885471 AND 885571 122 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.987 SERIES 885501 AND 885502 298 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 15. 78. 78. 171. 190. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.124 0.424 0.638 0.329 0.649 0.649 0.613 0.538 0.516 0.386 SDEV 0.000 0.305 0.182 0.438 0.116 0.161 0.157 0.225 0.247 0.233 SERR 0.000 0.176 0.047 0.050 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.016 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.349 0.843 0.953 0.881 0.972 0.974 0.969 0.959 0.955 0.924 NSS 3.8 7.3 11.4 15.1 18.6 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.5 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 171. 153. RBAR 0.425 0.478 SDEV 0.249 0.167 SERR 0.019 0.013 EPS 0.933 0.945 NSS 19.0 18.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.618 0.445 1.525 5.172 0.240 0.893 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.423 0.196 0.139 115 238 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.58 1.00 1.15 2.73 35.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 52. 200. 222. 274. 353. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.891 0.855 0.801 0.784 0.773 0.778 0.781 0.780 0.787 0.762 PACF 0.891 0.299 0.006 0.145 0.141 0.154 0.114 0.069 0.127 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.106 0.171 0.214 0.246 0.273 0.296 0.319 0.340 0.360 0.379 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.814 0.619 0.305 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 885471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00151148 0.37739599 2 885472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197644 0.35495612 3 885481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00261328 0.82031465 4 885482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291975 0.85691178 5 885491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00255184 0.94446784 6 885492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00359791 1.06422317 7 885501 1 2.15115380 0.02047024 0.00000000 0.11558133 8 885502 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 885511 1 0.19028431 0.00410897 0.00000000 0.34390327 10 885512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011029 0.33667216 11 885521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00226954 0.68373924 12 885522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00256181 0.73409766 13 885551 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051724 0.41481951 14 885552 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00212418 0.34179831 15 885571 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 885572 1 2.12290692 0.01221122 0.00000000 0.04100596 17 885581 1 1.80953991 0.01767924 0.00000000 0.11277871 18 885582 1 1.71562338 0.01715954 0.00000000 0.23870522 19 885611 1 1.21920097 0.04152394 0.00000000 0.22390631 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 885612 1 0.67652160 0.01226864 0.00000000 0.10062499 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 0.993 0.681 1.564 5.804 0.309 0.816 2 885472 1778 1990 213 0.990 0.611 1.420 5.515 0.300 0.782 3 885481 1728 1990 263 1.032 0.600 0.915 3.713 0.282 0.817 4 885482 1731 1990 260 1.056 0.575 0.903 3.572 0.265 0.781 5 885491 1725 1990 266 0.997 0.393 0.548 3.321 0.266 0.616 6 885492 1727 1990 264 0.993 0.402 0.565 3.395 0.297 0.600 7 885501 1693 1990 298 1.076 0.680 1.264 4.840 0.390 0.718 8 885502 1638 1990 353 0.976 0.567 1.390 5.713 0.363 0.683 9 885511 1726 1990 265 1.000 0.386 0.470 2.666 0.243 0.717 10 885512 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.342 0.567 3.060 0.231 0.665 11 885521 1768 1990 223 0.997 0.358 0.640 3.906 0.252 0.661 12 885522 1768 1990 223 0.987 0.476 0.878 3.956 0.284 0.767 13 885551 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.489 0.715 2.899 0.293 0.761 14 885552 1776 1990 215 0.998 0.406 0.851 4.438 0.256 0.694 15 885571 1670 1912 243 1.012 0.382 0.458 4.533 0.356 0.293 16 885572 1663 1990 328 1.046 0.501 0.986 4.847 0.419 0.369 17 885581 1723 1990 268 1.063 0.632 1.442 6.533 0.343 0.813 18 885582 1723 1990 268 1.012 0.527 0.791 3.158 0.271 0.816 19 885611 1701 1990 290 0.999 0.410 0.553 3.211 0.317 0.559 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 0.995 0.376 0.740 4.819 0.333 0.445 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.011 0.490 0.883 4.195 0.303 0.669 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.028 0.112 0.353 1.101 0.051 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.999 0.482 0.821 3.931 0.295 0.706 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.028 0.199 0.559 1.577 0.072 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 200 0.976 0.342 0.458 2.666 0.231 0.293 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 222 0.994 0.389 0.566 3.266 0.266 0.608 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 274 1.022 0.588 1.125 4.844 0.338 0.782 MAXIMUM VALUE 353 1.076 0.681 1.564 6.533 0.419 0.817 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 885471 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 885472 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 885481 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 885482 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 885491 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 885492 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 885501 -67 199 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 885502 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 885511 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 885512 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 885521 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 885522 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 885551 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 885552 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 885571 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 885572 -67 219 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 885581 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 885582 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 885611 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 885612 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 0.977 0.467 0.742 3.636 0.310 0.669 2 885472 1778 1990 213 0.982 0.451 0.523 3.117 0.301 0.680 3 885481 1728 1990 263 0.961 0.402 0.324 2.870 0.282 0.702 4 885482 1731 1990 260 0.975 0.392 0.328 2.739 0.265 0.685 5 885491 1725 1990 266 0.987 0.341 0.578 3.707 0.265 0.521 6 885492 1727 1990 264 0.993 0.381 0.523 3.402 0.297 0.556 7 885501 1693 1990 298 0.979 0.475 0.694 3.731 0.390 0.584 8 885502 1638 1990 353 0.978 0.502 1.279 5.718 0.363 0.616 9 885511 1726 1990 265 0.988 0.337 0.298 2.601 0.243 0.635 10 885512 1770 1990 221 0.990 0.268 0.212 3.213 0.231 0.471 11 885521 1768 1990 223 0.994 0.323 0.267 3.232 0.252 0.584 12 885522 1768 1990 223 0.987 0.395 0.441 3.757 0.283 0.642 13 885551 1774 1990 217 0.986 0.429 0.498 2.716 0.293 0.703 14 885552 1776 1990 215 0.993 0.383 0.756 4.294 0.256 0.660 15 885571 1670 1912 243 0.999 0.366 0.273 4.151 0.356 0.281 16 885572 1663 1990 328 0.996 0.412 0.347 3.885 0.419 0.304 17 885581 1723 1990 268 0.972 0.416 0.541 4.260 0.343 0.651 18 885582 1723 1990 268 0.986 0.462 0.605 3.083 0.271 0.784 19 885611 1701 1990 290 0.992 0.348 0.372 3.447 0.317 0.417 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 0.999 0.359 0.426 3.873 0.333 0.387 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 0.986 0.395 0.501 3.572 0.303 0.577 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.010 0.058 0.243 0.718 0.051 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.987 0.393 0.469 3.541 0.295 0.625 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.015 0.086 0.266 0.780 0.073 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 200 0.961 0.268 0.212 2.601 0.231 0.281 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 222 0.978 0.353 0.326 3.100 0.265 0.496 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 274 0.993 0.440 0.591 3.879 0.338 0.674 MAXIMUM VALUE 353 0.999 0.502 1.279 5.718 0.419 0.784 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.458 0.119 0.009 0.634 4.860 0.162 0.897 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.162 SERIES 885471 AND 885572 200 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.897 SERIES 885471 AND 885472 200 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 15. 78. 78. 171. 190. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.471 0.277 0.404 0.379 0.495 0.670 0.636 0.595 0.554 0.385 SDEV 0.000 0.221 0.255 0.259 0.169 0.097 0.162 0.140 0.199 0.235 SERR 0.000 0.128 0.066 0.029 0.019 0.007 0.012 0.010 0.015 0.018 EPS 0.771 0.737 0.886 0.902 0.948 0.976 0.972 0.967 0.961 0.924 NSS 3.8 7.3 11.4 15.1 18.6 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.5 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 171. 153. RBAR 0.409 0.386 SDEV 0.186 0.169 SERR 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.929 0.922 NSS 19.0 18.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.962 0.268 -0.001 3.220 0.233 0.522 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.371 0.177 0.084 79 274 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.55 1.00 1.08 1.63 76.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.520 0.412 0.292 0.197 0.141 0.114 0.132 0.075 0.126 0.126 PACF 0.520 0.194 0.027 -0.019 0.000 0.025 0.071 -0.041 0.085 0.039 95% C.L. 0.106 0.132 0.146 0.152 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.160 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.301 0.417 0.199 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.564 0.433 0.335 0.226 0.183 0.103 0.126 0.066 0.069 0.109 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.564 2 0.469 0.168 3 0.460 0.143 0.055 4 0.462 0.147 0.070 -0.032 5 0.462 0.145 0.066 -0.044 0.026 6 0.464 0.143 0.069 -0.037 0.049 -0.049 7 0.468 0.139 0.072 -0.043 0.037 -0.087 0.083 8 0.472 0.135 0.074 -0.045 0.040 -0.080 0.106 -0.049 9 0.473 0.131 0.077 -0.046 0.042 -0.083 0.102 -0.065 0.032 10 0.471 0.136 0.069 -0.040 0.039 -0.079 0.096 -0.074 -0.004 0.075 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3132.59 2999.41 2991.26 2992.19 2993.83 2995.58 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2996.75 2996.29 2997.43 2999.06 2999.04 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.469 0.168 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 33.75 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 150.94 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.469 0.388 0.261 0.188 0.132 0.094 0.066 0.047 0.033 0.0234 0.017 0.012 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 885471 2 0.452 0.642 0.044 2 885472 2 0.495 0.541 0.211 3 885481 2 0.530 0.540 0.238 4 885482 2 0.518 0.503 0.270 5 885491 2 0.333 0.397 0.243 6 885492 2 0.341 0.442 0.208 7 885501 2 0.362 0.490 0.161 8 885502 2 0.388 0.554 0.101 9 885511 2 0.446 0.561 0.124 10 885512 2 0.237 0.442 0.062 11 885521 2 0.361 0.523 0.113 12 885522 2 0.427 0.569 0.119 13 885551 2 0.511 0.639 0.093 14 885552 2 0.448 0.569 0.138 15 885571 2 0.090 0.276 0.051 16 885572 2 0.113 0.266 0.126 17 885581 2 0.459 0.551 0.158 18 885582 2 0.634 0.645 0.181 19 885611 2 0.201 0.355 0.149 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 885612 2 0.159 0.353 0.092 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.375 0.493 0.144 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.149 0.114 0.065 MEDIAN 2 0.407 0.532 0.132 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.192 0.146 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.090 0.266 0.044 LOWER HINGE 2 0.285 0.419 0.097 UPPER HINGE 2 0.477 0.565 0.194 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.634 0.645 0.270 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 1.002 0.337 0.492 4.098 0.371 0.015 2 885472 1778 1990 213 1.003 0.310 0.225 4.306 0.351 0.035 3 885481 1728 1990 263 1.000 0.275 0.362 3.926 0.308 0.002 4 885482 1731 1990 260 1.000 0.272 0.092 3.506 0.308 -0.027 5 885491 1725 1990 266 1.000 0.281 0.430 4.033 0.308 -0.037 6 885492 1727 1990 264 1.000 0.309 0.292 3.633 0.339 -0.002 7 885501 1693 1990 298 1.000 0.380 0.494 3.659 0.430 -0.010 8 885502 1638 1990 353 1.002 0.385 1.005 5.198 0.397 0.020 9 885511 1726 1990 265 1.000 0.256 0.181 2.574 0.291 -0.031 10 885512 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.236 0.299 3.388 0.264 -0.008 11 885521 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.259 0.169 3.097 0.299 -0.012 12 885522 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.299 0.630 4.710 0.316 -0.008 13 885551 1774 1990 217 1.001 0.301 0.116 3.577 0.336 -0.009 14 885552 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.285 0.708 5.073 0.312 -0.008 15 885571 1670 1912 243 1.000 0.350 0.432 4.438 0.389 0.011 16 885572 1663 1990 328 1.000 0.389 0.179 3.592 0.450 -0.009 17 885581 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.310 -0.167 4.017 0.377 -0.030 18 885582 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.279 0.224 3.836 0.325 -0.017 19 885611 1701 1990 290 1.000 0.313 0.378 3.882 0.351 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 1.000 0.329 0.349 3.651 0.368 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.000 0.308 0.344 3.910 0.344 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.001 0.043 0.252 0.626 0.048 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.305 0.324 3.859 0.338 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.056 0.282 0.617 0.066 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 200 1.000 0.236 -0.167 2.574 0.264 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 222 1.000 0.277 0.180 3.585 0.308 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 274 1.000 0.333 0.462 4.202 0.374 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 353 1.003 0.389 1.005 5.198 0.450 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.475 0.086 0.006 1.181 6.462 0.264 0.879 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.264 SERIES 885471 AND 885572 200 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.879 SERIES 885501 AND 885502 298 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 15. 78. 78. 171. 190. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.419 0.396 0.486 0.521 0.554 0.553 0.596 0.555 0.559 0.455 SDEV 0.000 0.131 0.173 0.142 0.118 0.111 0.126 0.138 0.117 0.128 SERR 0.000 0.075 0.045 0.016 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.732 0.828 0.915 0.943 0.959 0.961 0.967 0.961 0.962 0.942 NSS 3.8 7.3 11.4 15.1 18.6 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.5 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 171. 153. RBAR 0.387 0.446 SDEV 0.145 0.133 SERR 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.923 0.938 NSS 19.0 18.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.989 0.224 -0.141 3.407 0.260 -0.067 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.251 0.110 0.085 92 261 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.61 1.00 1.10 1.71 114.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.067 0.016 0.015 -0.042 -0.052 -0.032 0.056 -0.068 0.043 0.033 PACF -0.067 0.011 0.017 -0.040 -0.059 -0.039 0.055 -0.060 0.030 0.032 95% C.L. 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.002 0.015 -0.044 -0.059 -0.031 0.050 -0.062 0.040 0.042 PACF 0.000 0.002 0.015 -0.044 -0.059 -0.031 0.052 -0.062 0.036 0.035 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.987 0.272 0.068 3.161 0.222 0.553 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.551 0.410 0.267 0.149 0.084 0.065 0.087 0.048 0.101 0.110 PACF 0.551 0.152 -0.013 -0.050 -0.010 0.032 0.069 -0.038 0.085 0.036 95% C.L. 0.106 0.135 0.148 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.158 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.322 0.466 0.156 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2.11 MINUTES