RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS041L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS041L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 885 1 Nonburg WIDTH_LATE PISY - 885 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 75 6536-5038 1638 1990 - 885 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 885472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 885502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1886 1888 / 1974 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 885521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1798 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 885572 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1740 1740 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 885581 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1751 1751 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 885611 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 2 GAPS / 1734 1738 / 1863 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 885612 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 48 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 0.213 0.149 2.215 9.389 0.333 0.699 2 885472 1778 1990 213 0.214 0.157 2.344 9.983 0.321 0.739 3 885481 1728 1990 263 0.136 0.120 2.834 16.194 0.344 0.706 4 885482 1731 1990 260 0.121 0.088 2.164 8.296 0.352 0.719 5 885491 1725 1990 266 0.195 0.108 0.987 3.283 0.386 0.581 6 885492 1727 1990 264 0.198 0.127 1.064 3.606 0.351 0.700 7 885501 1693 1990 298 0.163 0.254 5.434 40.762 0.344 0.784 8 885502 1638 1990 353 0.188 0.299 5.319 40.834 0.414 0.752 9 885511 1726 1990 265 0.150 0.072 1.664 6.580 0.341 0.415 10 885512 1770 1990 221 0.098 0.041 1.410 5.118 0.290 0.463 11 885521 1768 1990 223 0.135 0.078 1.352 5.484 0.388 0.437 12 885522 1768 1990 223 0.147 0.079 1.633 6.356 0.362 0.448 13 885551 1774 1990 217 0.164 0.104 2.238 9.365 0.379 0.527 14 885552 1776 1990 215 0.207 0.114 1.527 5.539 0.345 0.460 15 885571 1670 1912 243 0.168 0.199 2.091 6.801 0.393 0.790 16 885572 1663 1990 328 0.178 0.220 2.521 10.438 0.370 0.744 17 885581 1723 1990 268 0.150 0.163 2.041 6.521 0.328 0.843 18 885582 1723 1990 268 0.207 0.181 1.577 4.815 0.321 0.845 19 885611 1701 1990 290 0.136 0.092 3.168 17.716 0.338 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 0.130 0.078 1.983 7.542 0.357 0.589 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1638 TO 1990 353 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 252 0.165 0.136 2.278 11.231 0.353 0.645 STANDARD DEVIATION 38 0.034 0.067 1.196 10.758 0.029 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 251 0.163 0.117 2.066 7.171 0.348 0.699 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.060 0.089 0.881 4.699 0.039 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 200 0.098 0.041 0.987 3.283 0.290 0.415 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 220 0.136 0.083 1.552 5.511 0.335 0.495 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 0.196 0.172 2.433 10.210 0.375 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 343 0.214 0.299 5.434 40.834 0.414 0.845 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.316 0.245 0.018 0.020 3.066 -0.291 0.979 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.291 SERIES 885472 AND 885571 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.979 SERIES 885501 AND 885502 298 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 15. 78. 78. 171. 190. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.362 0.428 0.482 0.190 0.383 0.466 0.506 0.389 0.357 0.282 SDEV 0.000 0.389 0.230 0.380 0.176 0.180 0.141 0.228 0.255 0.199 SERR 0.000 0.225 0.059 0.043 0.020 0.014 0.010 0.017 0.019 0.015 EPS 0.682 0.846 0.914 0.780 0.920 0.946 0.953 0.927 0.917 0.884 NSS 3.8 7.3 11.4 15.1 18.6 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.5 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 171. 153. RBAR 0.396 0.483 SDEV 0.204 0.201 SERR 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.926 0.946 NSS 19.0 18.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.199 0.158 2.210 8.283 0.285 0.744 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.470 0.228 0.039 161 192 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.79 2.55 1.00 1.20 3.75 165.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.83 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 52. 200. 222. 274. 353. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.742 0.718 0.635 0.619 0.595 0.603 0.575 0.610 0.599 0.607 PACF 0.742 0.373 0.063 0.117 0.101 0.131 0.037 0.160 0.084 0.067 95% C.L. 0.106 0.154 0.188 0.211 0.231 0.248 0.264 0.278 0.292 0.306 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.620 0.471 0.369 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 885471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037734 0.17462714 2 885472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056827 0.15281990 3 885481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00085158 0.24875860 4 885482 1 0.19360143 0.00611720 0.00000000 0.02485234 5 885491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057756 0.27184054 6 885492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095017 0.32373834 7 885501 1 0.69003683 0.01957272 0.00000000 0.04659264 8 885502 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 885511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005784 0.14208147 10 885512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005966 0.09179433 11 885521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058182 0.20120774 12 885522 1 0.11328587 0.04413944 0.00000000 0.13582902 13 885551 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037067 0.12309908 14 885552 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089675 0.11003478 15 885571 1 0.64859217 0.01599542 0.00000000 0.00630464 16 885572 1 0.71387911 0.01326334 0.00000000 0.01697869 17 885581 1 0.51066947 0.01716144 0.00000000 0.04237464 18 885582 1 0.55172509 0.01582581 0.00000000 0.08022548 19 885611 1 0.44693151 0.06705288 0.00000000 0.10427630 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 885612 1 0.24964736 0.02941396 0.00000000 0.09204426 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 0.998 0.689 2.225 9.614 0.331 0.693 2 885472 1778 1990 213 0.994 0.682 2.480 11.374 0.321 0.709 3 885481 1728 1990 263 1.129 1.027 3.540 20.816 0.345 0.669 4 885482 1731 1990 260 1.006 0.552 1.842 9.667 0.351 0.561 5 885491 1725 1990 266 0.996 0.490 1.030 3.831 0.385 0.467 6 885492 1727 1990 264 0.987 0.496 1.251 4.691 0.350 0.514 7 885501 1693 1990 298 1.062 0.725 2.529 11.621 0.343 0.696 8 885502 1638 1990 353 0.975 0.799 3.733 23.701 0.412 0.602 9 885511 1726 1990 265 1.000 0.484 1.701 6.778 0.340 0.415 10 885512 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.416 1.406 5.199 0.289 0.455 11 885521 1768 1990 223 0.993 0.517 1.995 8.611 0.382 0.304 12 885522 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.522 1.880 7.948 0.360 0.432 13 885551 1774 1990 217 0.998 0.611 2.306 9.819 0.378 0.495 14 885552 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.450 1.398 5.821 0.344 0.365 15 885571 1670 1912 243 1.101 0.552 1.074 4.837 0.392 0.434 16 885572 1663 1990 328 1.094 0.537 0.648 3.218 0.377 0.487 17 885581 1723 1990 268 1.060 0.687 1.334 5.066 0.328 0.769 18 885582 1723 1990 268 1.008 0.594 1.509 5.344 0.320 0.644 19 885611 1701 1990 290 1.000 0.479 0.943 5.602 0.464 0.422 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 1.000 0.406 1.308 5.454 0.337 0.353 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.020 0.586 1.807 8.451 0.357 0.524 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.043 0.149 0.814 5.348 0.038 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.544 1.605 6.300 0.347 0.491 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.037 0.198 0.986 4.610 0.046 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 200 0.975 0.406 0.648 3.218 0.289 0.304 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 222 0.997 0.487 1.279 5.133 0.334 0.427 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 274 1.034 0.685 2.265 9.743 0.380 0.657 MAXIMUM VALUE 353 1.129 1.027 3.733 23.701 0.464 0.769 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 885471 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 885472 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 885481 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 885482 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 885491 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 885492 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 885501 -67 199 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 885502 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 885511 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 885512 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 885521 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 885522 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 885551 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 885552 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 885571 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 885572 -67 219 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 885581 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 885582 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 885611 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 885612 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 0.975 0.481 1.435 6.445 0.332 0.548 2 885472 1778 1990 213 0.977 0.486 1.739 7.548 0.321 0.540 3 885481 1728 1990 263 0.970 0.502 2.096 10.008 0.344 0.390 4 885482 1731 1990 260 0.980 0.448 1.627 8.384 0.351 0.399 5 885491 1725 1990 266 0.988 0.447 1.051 4.238 0.385 0.383 6 885492 1727 1990 264 0.991 0.462 1.281 5.344 0.350 0.441 7 885501 1693 1990 298 0.982 0.536 3.051 18.850 0.343 0.586 8 885502 1638 1990 353 0.973 0.721 3.898 26.350 0.412 0.558 9 885511 1726 1990 265 0.992 0.426 1.512 6.187 0.340 0.305 10 885512 1770 1990 221 0.992 0.365 1.362 5.423 0.289 0.329 11 885521 1768 1990 223 0.995 0.461 1.521 6.287 0.383 0.244 12 885522 1768 1990 223 0.994 0.451 1.477 6.226 0.361 0.339 13 885551 1774 1990 217 0.988 0.559 2.396 10.726 0.378 0.450 14 885552 1776 1990 215 0.996 0.435 1.344 5.593 0.344 0.339 15 885571 1670 1912 243 0.994 0.403 0.804 3.780 0.391 0.248 16 885572 1663 1990 328 0.992 0.414 0.927 5.208 0.376 0.281 17 885581 1723 1990 268 0.973 0.432 1.054 4.418 0.327 0.539 18 885582 1723 1990 268 0.988 0.542 1.493 5.559 0.320 0.620 19 885611 1701 1990 290 0.991 0.409 0.837 6.319 0.470 0.284 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 0.999 0.396 1.214 5.026 0.337 0.312 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 0.987 0.469 1.606 7.896 0.358 0.407 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.009 0.078 0.761 5.465 0.039 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.990 0.449 1.456 6.207 0.347 0.386 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.014 0.074 0.549 2.690 0.046 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 200 0.970 0.365 0.804 3.780 0.289 0.244 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 222 0.979 0.420 1.134 5.276 0.335 0.308 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 274 0.993 0.494 1.683 7.966 0.380 0.539 MAXIMUM VALUE 353 0.999 0.721 3.898 26.350 0.470 0.620 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.335 0.138 0.010 0.327 4.609 -0.055 0.860 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.055 SERIES 885472 AND 885571 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.860 SERIES 885501 AND 885502 298 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 15. 78. 78. 171. 190. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.467 0.394 0.288 0.227 0.281 0.488 0.510 0.426 0.344 0.279 SDEV 0.000 0.359 0.284 0.247 0.192 0.137 0.147 0.205 0.238 0.196 SERR 0.000 0.207 0.073 0.028 0.022 0.010 0.011 0.015 0.018 0.015 EPS 0.768 0.826 0.822 0.816 0.879 0.950 0.954 0.937 0.913 0.883 NSS 3.8 7.3 11.4 15.1 18.6 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.5 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 171. 153. RBAR 0.431 0.432 SDEV 0.172 0.160 SERR 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.935 0.935 NSS 19.0 18.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.941 0.312 0.859 3.859 0.274 0.380 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.594 0.324 -0.017 118 235 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.14 1.00 1.13 2.27 144.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.298 0.228 0.116 0.101 0.029 0.011 0.058 0.029 0.065 PACF 0.379 0.181 0.081 -0.035 0.020 -0.042 -0.012 0.065 0.003 0.045 95% C.L. 0.106 0.121 0.129 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.136 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.180 0.298 0.154 0.083 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.447 0.324 0.275 0.147 0.146 0.068 0.064 0.058 0.049 0.060 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.447 2 0.378 0.155 3 0.361 0.115 0.107 4 0.366 0.120 0.124 -0.048 5 0.369 0.114 0.118 -0.067 0.053 6 0.371 0.110 0.123 -0.062 0.071 -0.048 7 0.373 0.108 0.125 -0.065 0.068 -0.058 0.027 8 0.372 0.109 0.124 -0.065 0.067 -0.059 0.024 0.008 9 0.372 0.108 0.126 -0.066 0.068 -0.062 0.022 -0.001 0.022 10 0.372 0.108 0.125 -0.065 0.067 -0.061 0.019 -0.003 0.014 0.020 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3149.03 3072.42 3065.84 3063.81 3065.00 3066.01 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3067.18 3068.92 3070.90 3072.74 3074.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.361 0.115 0.107 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.77 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 129.49 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.361 0.245 0.236 0.152 0.108 0.082 0.058 0.042 0.030 0.0220 0.016 0.012 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 885471 3 0.311 0.514 0.051 0.034 2 885472 3 0.308 0.477 0.093 0.042 3 885481 3 0.192 0.318 0.066 0.177 4 885482 3 0.249 0.242 0.234 0.162 5 885491 3 0.199 0.282 0.131 0.165 6 885492 3 0.243 0.338 0.202 0.041 7 885501 3 0.360 0.660 -0.169 0.094 8 885502 3 0.316 0.578 -0.065 0.059 9 885511 3 0.125 0.243 0.118 0.113 10 885512 3 0.159 0.262 0.069 0.202 11 885521 3 0.110 0.200 0.061 0.193 12 885522 3 0.137 0.286 0.103 0.081 13 885551 3 0.252 0.329 0.225 0.051 14 885552 3 0.158 0.265 0.102 0.163 15 885571 3 0.082 0.233 0.010 0.130 16 885572 3 0.109 0.255 0.033 0.117 17 885581 3 0.339 0.403 0.132 0.154 18 885582 3 0.427 0.467 0.232 0.021 19 885611 3 0.112 0.227 0.128 0.097 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 885612 3 0.124 0.263 0.170 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.216 0.342 0.096 0.104 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.101 0.130 0.099 0.063 MEDIAN 3 0.195 0.284 0.102 0.105 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.186 0.185 0.095 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.082 0.200 -0.169 -0.011 LOWER HINGE 3 0.124 0.249 0.056 0.046 UPPER HINGE 3 0.310 0.435 0.151 0.162 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.427 0.660 0.234 0.202 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 885471 1791 1990 200 1.000 0.398 1.041 5.106 0.406 -0.004 2 885472 1778 1990 213 1.000 0.405 1.773 8.806 0.393 0.006 3 885481 1728 1990 263 1.000 0.451 2.136 11.582 0.412 -0.001 4 885482 1731 1990 260 1.000 0.388 1.411 8.597 0.404 0.008 5 885491 1725 1990 266 1.000 0.401 0.880 3.825 0.432 0.006 6 885492 1727 1990 264 1.001 0.402 0.899 4.591 0.420 0.001 7 885501 1693 1990 298 1.000 0.430 2.249 14.146 0.451 -0.005 8 885502 1638 1990 353 1.003 0.590 3.428 25.854 0.554 0.004 9 885511 1726 1990 265 1.000 0.399 1.391 6.305 0.385 -0.003 10 885512 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.334 1.231 5.241 0.328 0.004 11 885521 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.437 1.534 6.080 0.418 0.014 12 885522 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.419 1.329 5.848 0.413 0.004 13 885551 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.484 1.882 9.384 0.452 0.000 14 885552 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.400 1.459 6.315 0.393 -0.001 15 885571 1670 1912 243 1.000 0.387 0.787 3.740 0.433 -0.007 16 885572 1663 1990 328 1.000 0.393 1.056 6.148 0.411 -0.015 17 885581 1723 1990 268 1.000 0.351 0.643 4.040 0.380 0.005 18 885582 1723 1990 268 1.002 0.405 0.994 4.967 0.405 0.014 19 885611 1701 1990 290 1.005 0.364 1.009 5.146 0.367 0.052 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 885612 1707 1986 280 1.000 0.371 1.153 5.377 0.389 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 258 1.001 0.410 1.414 7.555 0.412 0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.001 0.054 0.645 5.073 0.044 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.400 1.280 5.964 0.409 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.037 0.652 3.665 0.035 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 200 1.000 0.334 0.643 3.740 0.328 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 222 1.000 0.388 1.001 5.036 0.391 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 274 1.000 0.424 1.653 8.702 0.426 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 353 1.005 0.590 3.428 25.854 0.554 0.052 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.326 0.134 0.010 -0.103 5.212 -0.143 0.829 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.143 SERIES 885471 AND 885571 122 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.829 SERIES 885501 AND 885502 298 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 15. 78. 78. 171. 190. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.278 0.410 0.286 0.287 0.300 0.383 0.412 0.336 0.336 0.330 SDEV 0.000 0.339 0.282 0.187 0.162 0.167 0.155 0.200 0.218 0.161 SERR 0.000 0.195 0.073 0.021 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.017 0.012 EPS 0.593 0.836 0.821 0.859 0.888 0.925 0.933 0.910 0.910 0.906 NSS 3.8 7.3 11.4 15.1 18.6 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.5 YEAR 1940. 1965. CORR 171. 153. RBAR 0.425 0.435 SDEV 0.155 0.142 SERR 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.934 0.936 NSS 19.0 18.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.967 0.277 0.710 4.045 0.306 -0.010 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.533 0.279 -0.011 116 237 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.16 1.00 1.10 2.27 91.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.85 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 0.092 0.003 -0.028 0.031 -0.056 -0.031 0.061 -0.040 0.076 PACF -0.010 0.092 0.005 -0.037 0.030 -0.050 -0.038 0.070 -0.031 0.061 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.003 -0.001 -0.032 0.032 -0.060 -0.030 0.059 -0.033 0.072 PACF 0.000 0.003 -0.001 -0.032 0.032 -0.060 -0.031 0.059 -0.032 0.067 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.000 0.003 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1638 1990 353 0.967 0.312 0.770 3.944 0.254 0.440 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.439 0.316 0.256 0.150 0.131 0.047 0.042 0.077 0.024 0.066 PACF 0.439 0.152 0.091 -0.024 0.032 -0.058 0.014 0.062 -0.030 0.053 95% C.L. 0.106 0.125 0.134 0.139 0.141 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.220 0.360 0.116 0.094 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.54 MINUTES