RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS046E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS046E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 895 1 Shchely Bozh WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 895 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 65 6613-5620 1694 1990 - 895 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 895071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 1 GAPS / 1816 1837 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 895072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 47 IN 2 GAPS / 1812 1846 / 1880 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 895082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 49 IN 1 GAPS / 1825 1873 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 895101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 87 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 895102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 72 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 895111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1851 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 895122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1816 1827 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 895161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 51 IN 1 GAPS / 1853 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 895162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 115 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 895011 1836 1990 155 0.691 0.417 0.984 4.072 0.299 0.839 2 895012 1838 1990 153 0.859 0.410 0.750 3.611 0.263 0.780 3 895022 1775 1960 186 0.500 0.427 1.564 4.830 0.323 0.889 4 895071 1793 1990 198 0.438 0.401 2.584 11.211 0.435 0.819 5 895072 1793 1990 198 0.422 0.381 2.572 10.349 0.389 0.827 6 895081 1712 1912 201 0.432 0.302 1.365 5.172 0.452 0.717 7 895082 1758 1972 215 0.359 0.298 2.398 9.699 0.444 0.765 8 895091 1694 1990 297 0.508 0.350 1.754 6.462 0.266 0.879 9 895092 1706 1990 285 0.474 0.423 2.054 7.028 0.270 0.916 10 895101 1703 1968 266 0.379 0.239 0.770 2.994 0.329 0.791 11 895102 1710 1978 269 0.349 0.241 0.951 3.068 0.327 0.819 12 895111 1700 1973 274 0.426 0.355 1.982 6.707 0.370 0.881 13 895112 1707 1990 284 0.560 0.352 1.452 5.262 0.305 0.778 14 895121 1738 1944 207 0.416 0.329 2.074 8.839 0.433 0.765 15 895122 1762 1990 229 0.412 0.295 1.691 7.305 0.400 0.755 16 895131 1808 1990 183 0.851 0.483 1.017 3.854 0.249 0.857 17 895141 1797 1990 194 0.812 0.366 0.735 3.591 0.232 0.788 18 895142 1804 1990 187 0.768 0.458 1.317 5.810 0.272 0.855 19 895151 1787 1974 188 0.573 0.446 2.167 8.508 0.321 0.879 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 895152 1786 1990 205 0.623 0.486 1.827 6.289 0.282 0.909 21 895161 1786 1990 205 0.533 0.621 2.025 5.794 0.331 0.948 22 895162 1790 1990 201 0.704 0.666 1.719 5.019 0.328 0.918 23 895231 1711 1990 280 0.614 0.452 1.596 5.960 0.328 0.807 24 895271 1711 2228 518 0.428 0.311 1.811 7.798 0.348 0.793 25 895392 1784 1990 207 0.320 0.175 0.907 3.966 0.353 0.764 26 895401 1779 1984 206 0.364 0.273 2.046 9.097 0.368 0.788 27 895402 1724 1976 253 0.403 0.288 1.415 4.783 0.346 0.830 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1694 TO 2228 535 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.527 0.379 1.612 6.188 0.336 0.828 STANDARD DEVIATION 78 0.161 0.110 0.552 2.289 0.061 0.059 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.474 0.366 1.691 5.810 0.328 0.819 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 57 0.204 0.136 0.869 3.124 0.079 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 86 0.320 0.175 0.735 2.994 0.232 0.717 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 177 0.414 0.300 1.167 4.428 0.290 0.784 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 235 0.618 0.436 2.036 7.552 0.369 0.879 MAXIMUM VALUE 518 0.859 0.666 2.584 11.211 0.452 0.948 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.602 0.215 0.011 -1.048 4.264 -0.136 0.977 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.136 SERIES 895101 AND 895142 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.977 SERIES 895161 AND 895162 201 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 45. 55. 91. 253. 300. 351. 325. 300. 210. RBAR 0.542 0.647 0.815 0.586 0.592 0.537 0.474 0.445 0.662 SDEV 0.254 0.142 0.094 0.175 0.180 0.209 0.174 0.196 0.155 SERR 0.038 0.019 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.931 0.965 0.989 0.973 0.975 0.969 0.960 0.954 0.980 NSS 11.3 15.2 21.4 25.3 26.5 27.0 26.8 26.2 24.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 2228 535 0.407 0.256 1.457 5.529 0.284 0.835 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.703 0.460 -0.048 136 399 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.18 1.00 1.17 2.35 88.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.00 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.88 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 206. 72. 153. 196. 268. 518. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.834 0.759 0.731 0.659 0.602 0.592 0.568 0.537 0.540 0.528 PACF 0.834 0.210 0.193 -0.060 -0.007 0.121 0.052 0.013 0.087 0.024 95% C.L. 0.086 0.134 0.163 0.186 0.202 0.215 0.227 0.238 0.247 0.255 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.726 0.626 0.096 0.234 -0.066 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 895011 1 1.18404019 0.02018063 0.00000000 0.33220792 2 895012 1 1.12203395 0.02314444 0.00000000 0.55509681 3 895022 1 1.47434342 0.03513289 0.00000000 0.27870494 4 895071 1 1.76831484 0.06143046 0.00000000 0.30975378 5 895072 1 1.48641288 0.04425000 0.00000000 0.27922592 6 895081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00213142 0.64751196 7 895082 1 0.81439865 0.03448046 0.00000000 0.19753610 8 895091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00209153 0.81978613 9 895092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00305995 0.91153795 10 895101 1 0.74731117 0.01644964 0.00000000 0.12183921 11 895102 1 0.73889399 0.01698191 0.00000000 0.12100974 12 895111 1 1.30205441 0.02824982 0.00000000 0.25876647 13 895112 1 0.98082316 0.02941411 0.00000000 0.44398424 14 895121 1 0.68606985 0.00544835 0.00000000 0.00558280 15 895122 1 0.95393765 0.03980153 0.00000000 0.29991668 16 895131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00506201 1.31679821 17 895141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352461 1.15555632 18 895142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00490582 1.22874069 19 895151 1 1.68266988 0.03981308 0.00000000 0.35290319 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 895152 1 1.76998866 0.03112099 0.00000000 0.35010198 21 895161 1 2.33939862 0.03848444 0.00000000 0.17355621 22 895162 1 2.45121241 0.05094820 0.00000000 0.16063912 23 895231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00299985 1.03547847 24 895271 1 0.78469640 0.00349761 0.00000000 0.06628431 25 895392 1 0.49174702 0.04145091 0.00000000 0.26344579 26 895401 1 1.13048649 0.07982585 0.00000000 0.29789314 27 895402 1 0.54946899 0.00840410 0.00000000 0.17612475 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 895011 1836 1990 155 0.998 0.452 0.443 2.945 0.297 0.726 2 895012 1838 1990 153 1.000 0.365 0.168 3.010 0.261 0.642 3 895022 1775 1960 186 1.001 0.615 1.360 5.370 0.321 0.833 4 895071 1793 1990 198 0.998 0.534 0.817 3.908 0.403 0.695 5 895072 1793 1990 198 0.997 0.482 1.103 5.085 0.341 0.690 6 895081 1712 1912 201 1.013 0.667 1.154 3.890 0.450 0.712 7 895082 1758 1972 215 1.005 0.591 0.822 3.726 0.395 0.655 8 895091 1694 1990 297 0.989 0.519 1.291 4.926 0.265 0.810 9 895092 1706 1990 285 1.036 0.585 1.231 4.166 0.271 0.798 10 895101 1703 1968 266 1.009 0.582 1.283 5.083 0.271 0.730 11 895102 1710 1978 269 1.009 0.598 1.161 4.346 0.283 0.759 12 895111 1700 1973 274 1.003 0.482 0.464 3.202 0.366 0.587 13 895112 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.504 0.876 3.929 0.304 0.684 14 895121 1738 1944 207 1.003 0.617 1.052 5.175 0.431 0.671 15 895122 1762 1990 229 1.001 0.547 0.427 2.645 0.386 0.683 16 895131 1808 1990 183 0.993 0.418 0.245 2.462 0.248 0.768 17 895141 1797 1990 194 0.995 0.366 0.392 2.746 0.231 0.713 18 895142 1804 1990 187 0.989 0.432 0.328 3.185 0.271 0.753 19 895151 1787 1974 188 0.999 0.440 0.502 2.873 0.319 0.667 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 895152 1786 1990 205 1.001 0.423 0.169 2.539 0.281 0.742 21 895161 1786 1990 205 1.017 0.376 0.556 4.382 0.296 0.530 22 895162 1790 1990 201 0.997 0.345 0.668 3.372 0.241 0.585 23 895231 1711 1990 280 0.988 0.528 1.036 4.345 0.328 0.710 24 895271 1711 2228 518 0.999 0.521 0.794 3.934 0.347 0.689 25 895392 1784 1990 207 0.999 0.473 0.639 3.512 0.351 0.706 26 895401 1779 1984 206 0.999 0.604 1.336 5.624 0.365 0.766 27 895402 1724 1976 253 1.001 0.572 0.692 3.208 0.345 0.768 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 231 1.001 0.505 0.778 3.837 0.321 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.010 0.089 0.382 0.935 0.059 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.519 0.794 3.890 0.319 0.710 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 71 0.006 0.148 0.675 1.267 0.087 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 153 0.988 0.345 0.168 2.462 0.231 0.530 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 196 0.997 0.436 0.453 3.097 0.271 0.677 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 267 1.003 0.584 1.129 4.364 0.358 0.756 MAXIMUM VALUE 518 1.036 0.667 1.360 5.624 0.450 0.833 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 895011 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 895012 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 895022 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 895071 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 895072 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 895081 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 895082 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 895091 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 895092 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 895101 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 895102 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 895111 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 895112 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 895121 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 895122 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 895131 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 895141 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 895142 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 895151 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 895152 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 895161 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 895162 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 895231 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 895271 -67 347 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 895392 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 895401 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 895402 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 895011 1836 1990 155 0.983 0.325 0.052 2.942 0.296 0.506 2 895012 1838 1990 153 0.989 0.286 0.063 3.688 0.261 0.437 3 895022 1775 1960 186 0.979 0.558 1.250 5.128 0.321 0.805 4 895071 1793 1990 198 0.981 0.461 0.429 3.223 0.404 0.580 5 895072 1793 1990 198 0.983 0.421 0.795 4.195 0.341 0.587 6 895081 1712 1912 201 0.977 0.516 0.592 3.067 0.449 0.575 7 895082 1758 1972 215 0.975 0.459 0.801 4.616 0.395 0.513 8 895091 1694 1990 297 0.979 0.421 0.721 3.611 0.265 0.727 9 895092 1706 1990 285 0.972 0.432 0.902 4.007 0.271 0.721 10 895101 1703 1968 266 0.972 0.450 1.238 5.083 0.271 0.650 11 895102 1710 1978 269 0.966 0.462 1.390 5.466 0.282 0.666 12 895111 1700 1973 274 0.992 0.456 0.431 3.486 0.366 0.540 13 895112 1707 1990 284 0.989 0.457 0.856 4.282 0.305 0.643 14 895121 1738 1944 207 0.983 0.566 0.862 4.366 0.430 0.634 15 895122 1762 1990 229 0.978 0.446 0.487 3.208 0.386 0.536 16 895131 1808 1990 183 0.989 0.383 0.168 2.624 0.248 0.730 17 895141 1797 1990 194 0.990 0.318 0.328 3.040 0.230 0.599 18 895142 1804 1990 187 0.985 0.385 0.318 3.694 0.270 0.687 19 895151 1787 1974 188 0.986 0.395 0.325 2.863 0.319 0.595 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 895152 1786 1990 205 0.987 0.389 0.230 2.670 0.281 0.697 21 895161 1786 1990 205 0.997 0.342 0.074 3.480 0.296 0.479 22 895162 1790 1990 201 0.997 0.329 0.508 3.269 0.241 0.548 23 895231 1711 1990 280 0.987 0.474 0.668 3.317 0.327 0.650 24 895271 1711 2228 518 0.995 0.503 0.705 3.677 0.347 0.672 25 895392 1784 1990 207 0.980 0.391 0.315 3.042 0.351 0.543 26 895401 1779 1984 206 0.965 0.454 0.568 3.349 0.365 0.594 27 895402 1724 1976 253 0.979 0.508 0.488 3.003 0.345 0.729 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 231 0.983 0.429 0.576 3.644 0.321 0.616 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.008 0.071 0.360 0.765 0.059 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 0.983 0.446 0.508 3.480 0.319 0.599 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 71 0.011 0.075 0.476 1.046 0.087 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 153 0.965 0.286 0.052 2.624 0.230 0.437 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 196 0.978 0.387 0.322 3.055 0.271 0.546 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 267 0.989 0.462 0.798 4.101 0.358 0.680 MAXIMUM VALUE 518 0.997 0.566 1.390 5.466 0.449 0.805 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.519 0.114 0.006 -0.078 3.395 0.163 0.909 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.163 SERIES 895101 AND 895142 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.909 SERIES 895101 AND 895102 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 45. 55. 91. 253. 300. 351. 325. 300. 210. RBAR 0.680 0.677 0.736 0.610 0.584 0.537 0.477 0.463 0.559 SDEV 0.151 0.128 0.097 0.119 0.148 0.160 0.164 0.174 0.145 SERR 0.023 0.017 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.960 0.970 0.983 0.975 0.974 0.969 0.961 0.958 0.969 NSS 11.3 15.2 21.4 25.3 26.5 27.0 26.8 26.2 24.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 2228 535 1.006 0.402 0.640 3.885 0.278 0.641 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.080 0.031 0.123 92 443 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.34 1.00 1.08 1.42 12.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.640 0.497 0.454 0.358 0.270 0.231 0.194 0.164 0.172 0.135 PACF 0.640 0.147 0.154 -0.017 -0.031 0.016 0.010 0.019 0.062 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.086 0.117 0.132 0.143 0.149 0.153 0.156 0.157 0.159 0.160 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.440 0.522 0.065 0.155 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.653 0.531 0.494 0.413 0.321 0.242 0.179 0.109 0.106 0.095 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.653 2 0.534 0.182 3 0.504 0.094 0.165 4 0.502 0.093 0.159 0.012 5 0.503 0.100 0.163 0.035 -0.045 6 0.500 0.102 0.172 0.040 -0.017 -0.056 7 0.498 0.101 0.174 0.047 -0.013 -0.037 -0.038 8 0.496 0.099 0.173 0.049 -0.004 -0.032 -0.011 -0.053 9 0.500 0.100 0.175 0.050 -0.007 -0.043 -0.018 -0.085 0.063 10 0.497 0.103 0.176 0.051 -0.006 -0.045 -0.024 -0.089 0.045 0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 5117.34 4821.69 4805.65 4792.92 4794.84 4795.76 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4796.07 4797.30 4797.77 4797.61 4798.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.504 0.094 0.165 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 46.08 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 185.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.504 0.348 0.388 0.311 0.251 0.220 0.186 0.156 0.132 0.1119 0.095 0.080 0.068 0.057 0.048 0.041 0.035 0.029 0.025 0.0210 0.018 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.0039 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 895011 3 0.267 0.446 0.112 0.012 2 895012 3 0.204 0.397 0.105 -0.005 3 895022 3 0.666 0.658 0.090 0.107 4 895071 3 0.395 0.425 0.109 0.195 5 895072 3 0.402 0.407 0.197 0.127 6 895081 3 0.386 0.407 0.144 0.180 7 895082 3 0.290 0.419 0.130 0.077 8 895091 3 0.567 0.515 0.220 0.082 9 895092 3 0.575 0.497 0.163 0.172 10 895101 3 0.464 0.503 0.086 0.175 11 895102 3 0.493 0.539 0.006 0.235 12 895111 3 0.352 0.397 0.113 0.198 13 895112 3 0.429 0.555 0.076 0.080 14 895121 3 0.426 0.561 -0.003 0.166 15 895122 3 0.333 0.450 0.036 0.182 16 895131 3 0.562 0.572 0.126 0.109 17 895141 3 0.382 0.526 0.072 0.085 18 895142 3 0.494 0.579 0.121 0.052 19 895151 3 0.382 0.478 0.164 0.046 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 895152 3 0.500 0.708 -0.121 0.155 21 895161 3 0.261 0.421 0.049 0.126 22 895162 3 0.372 0.403 0.127 0.175 23 895231 3 0.451 0.553 0.026 0.166 24 895271 3 0.478 0.548 0.081 0.133 25 895392 3 0.317 0.560 -0.103 0.144 26 895401 3 0.388 0.475 0.140 0.083 27 895402 3 0.558 0.581 0.102 0.124 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.422 0.503 0.088 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.082 0.078 0.060 MEDIAN 3 0.402 0.503 0.105 0.127 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.132 0.134 0.068 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.204 0.397 -0.121 -0.005 LOWER HINGE 3 0.362 0.423 0.061 0.082 UPPER HINGE 3 0.493 0.558 0.129 0.173 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.666 0.708 0.220 0.235 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 895011 1836 1990 155 1.000 0.278 -0.108 2.918 0.337 0.001 2 895012 1838 1990 153 1.000 0.254 -0.164 3.878 0.298 -0.003 3 895022 1775 1960 186 1.002 0.316 0.255 3.605 0.356 0.005 4 895071 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.361 -0.075 3.018 0.432 -0.022 5 895072 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.327 0.011 3.490 0.378 -0.011 6 895081 1712 1912 201 1.002 0.400 0.342 3.646 0.486 -0.004 7 895082 1758 1972 215 1.001 0.384 0.779 5.505 0.439 -0.004 8 895091 1694 1990 297 1.000 0.277 0.171 3.894 0.303 0.000 9 895092 1706 1990 285 1.000 0.283 0.295 4.260 0.316 0.017 10 895101 1703 1968 266 1.000 0.331 0.872 6.448 0.352 -0.015 11 895102 1710 1978 269 1.000 0.331 0.743 6.073 0.357 -0.030 12 895111 1700 1973 274 1.001 0.363 0.435 4.445 0.394 -0.001 13 895112 1707 1990 284 1.000 0.346 0.465 4.391 0.384 0.006 14 895121 1738 1944 207 1.000 0.427 0.722 4.648 0.473 -0.001 15 895122 1762 1990 229 1.000 0.367 0.420 3.430 0.440 -0.021 16 895131 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.254 -0.146 3.135 0.288 0.011 17 895141 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.249 -0.088 3.365 0.281 -0.010 18 895142 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.274 -0.014 3.594 0.306 0.000 19 895151 1787 1974 188 1.000 0.311 -0.047 2.918 0.358 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 895152 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.275 0.013 3.021 0.321 0.005 21 895161 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.294 0.121 2.786 0.328 -0.017 22 895162 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.265 0.159 3.455 0.285 0.029 23 895231 1711 1990 280 1.000 0.352 0.584 4.266 0.393 0.007 24 895271 1711 2228 518 1.000 0.363 0.606 3.863 0.405 0.002 25 895392 1784 1990 207 1.000 0.324 0.059 2.780 0.392 -0.012 26 895401 1779 1984 206 1.000 0.356 0.360 3.196 0.401 0.011 27 895402 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.338 0.078 3.114 0.384 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 231 1.000 0.322 0.254 3.820 0.366 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 70 0.001 0.048 0.313 0.956 0.057 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.327 0.171 3.594 0.358 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 71 0.000 0.081 0.452 1.139 0.079 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 153 1.000 0.249 -0.164 2.780 0.281 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.277 -0.001 3.124 0.319 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 267 1.000 0.359 0.450 4.263 0.398 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 518 1.002 0.427 0.872 6.448 0.486 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.490 0.084 0.004 0.336 4.700 0.224 0.838 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.224 SERIES 895101 AND 895142 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.838 SERIES 895101 AND 895102 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 45. 55. 91. 253. 300. 351. 325. 300. 210. RBAR 0.620 0.604 0.581 0.523 0.558 0.522 0.525 0.501 0.466 SDEV 0.140 0.126 0.085 0.122 0.112 0.136 0.121 0.127 0.122 SERR 0.021 0.017 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.949 0.959 0.967 0.965 0.971 0.967 0.967 0.963 0.956 NSS 11.3 15.2 21.4 25.3 26.5 27.0 26.8 26.2 24.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 2228 535 1.002 0.301 0.436 4.291 0.335 0.001 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.069 0.027 0.091 106 429 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.53 1.00 1.10 1.62 5.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.004 0.013 0.012 -0.039 -0.011 -0.025 -0.025 0.057 -0.007 PACF 0.001 -0.004 0.013 0.012 -0.039 -0.011 -0.026 -0.024 0.058 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.087 0.087 0.087 0.087 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.012 -0.039 -0.012 -0.025 -0.025 0.057 -0.007 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.012 -0.039 -0.012 -0.025 -0.025 0.058 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.087 0.087 0.087 0.087 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 2228 535 1.007 0.404 0.646 3.862 0.278 0.642 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.641 0.512 0.474 0.383 0.295 0.256 0.212 0.186 0.191 0.149 PACF 0.641 0.172 0.160 -0.005 -0.034 0.017 -0.001 0.028 0.060 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.086 0.117 0.132 0.145 0.152 0.156 0.159 0.161 0.163 0.165 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.445 0.502 0.089 0.162 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES