RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS058N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS058N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 918 1 Charijaga DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 918 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 35 6653-5157 1653 1990 - 918 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 918251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 1 GAPS / 1752 1766 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 918291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 918292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1853 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 918472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1830 1831 / 1962 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 918491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 918492 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 23 IN 2 GAPS / 1833 1848 / 1948 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 918501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 918502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1802 1806 / 1950 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 918511 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1826 / 1926 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 918512 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 45 IN 3 GAPS / 1869 1903 / 1917 1921 / 1943 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 918531 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 918532 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 2 GAPS / 1865 1883 / 1929 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 918251 1663 1828 166 0.280 0.026 -0.096 3.526 0.067 0.549 2 918252 1653 1758 106 0.278 0.033 3.843 26.275 0.088 0.221 3 918291 1674 1990 317 0.289 0.024 0.435 3.735 0.065 0.414 4 918292 1669 1990 322 0.290 0.028 1.715 10.385 0.074 0.326 5 918301 1808 1990 183 0.265 0.017 0.144 3.266 0.059 0.301 6 918302 1792 1990 199 0.271 0.018 -0.041 3.282 0.056 0.376 7 918471 1804 1990 187 0.281 0.025 0.954 5.421 0.077 0.254 8 918472 1804 1990 187 0.297 0.027 1.542 6.484 0.069 0.372 9 918491 1726 1990 265 0.290 0.020 0.337 4.186 0.068 0.226 10 918492 1725 1990 266 0.283 0.023 0.215 3.788 0.071 0.415 11 918501 1790 1990 201 0.252 0.025 2.253 14.911 0.073 0.306 12 918502 1797 1990 194 0.273 0.038 2.499 10.484 0.076 0.624 13 918511 1796 1990 195 0.252 0.019 1.134 5.752 0.057 0.536 14 918512 1798 1990 193 0.242 0.023 0.292 4.583 0.068 0.551 15 918531 1734 1990 257 0.287 0.026 0.215 5.358 0.077 0.384 16 918532 1734 1990 257 0.293 0.033 0.263 5.226 0.073 0.608 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 16 FROM 1653 TO 1990 338 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.276 0.025 0.982 7.291 0.070 0.404 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.016 0.006 1.119 6.006 0.008 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 0.281 0.025 0.386 5.292 0.070 0.380 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 69 0.021 0.006 1.414 4.673 0.009 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 106 0.242 0.017 -0.096 3.266 0.056 0.221 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 0.268 0.022 0.215 3.762 0.066 0.303 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 249 0.289 0.027 1.629 8.434 0.075 0.543 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 0.297 0.038 3.843 26.275 0.088 0.624 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 112 0.288 0.166 0.016 -0.476 3.258 -0.218 0.617 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.218 SERIES 918501 AND 918532 201 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.617 SERIES 918251 AND 918301 21 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 93.33 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.85 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 3. 21. 21. 15. 91. 91. 91. 91. 91. RBAR 0.241 0.384 0.290 0.326 0.326 0.348 0.357 0.405 0.380 0.250 SDEV 0.346 0.202 0.254 0.239 0.157 0.204 0.195 0.162 0.159 0.170 SERR 0.141 0.117 0.055 0.052 0.041 0.021 0.020 0.017 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.583 0.800 0.754 0.810 0.860 0.885 0.886 0.905 0.895 0.823 NSS 4.4 6.4 7.5 8.8 12.7 14.4 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 91. RBAR 0.261 SDEV 0.162 SERR 0.017 EPS 0.832 NSS 14.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1653 1990 338 0.278 0.015 0.596 3.845 0.053 0.207 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.148 0.104 -0.006 67 271 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.63 1.00 1.11 1.74 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.83 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 197. 74. 106. 187. 261. 322. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.207 0.179 0.180 0.093 0.081 0.103 0.038 0.035 0.110 0.028 PACF 0.207 0.143 0.127 0.018 0.021 0.054 -0.014 -0.003 0.085 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.109 0.113 0.117 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.081 0.161 0.123 0.128 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 918251 1 0.15032236 0.00221011 0.00000000 0.15407239 2 918252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029161 0.26213476 3 918291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006531 0.29925367 4 918292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000691 0.28886518 5 918301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000501 0.26423827 6 918302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002587 0.26836759 7 918471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007992 0.27398482 8 918472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003318 0.29982987 9 918491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002194 0.28686485 10 918492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011792 0.26632601 11 918501 1 0.03781244 0.03439815 0.00000000 0.24654599 12 918502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001920 0.27402410 13 918511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002081 0.25324234 14 918512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016039 0.25780186 15 918531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001558 0.28577921 16 918532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021132 0.26848319 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 918251 1663 1828 166 1.000 0.076 0.111 3.723 0.068 0.311 2 918252 1653 1758 106 1.000 0.114 4.225 28.709 0.088 0.147 3 918291 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.081 0.689 4.488 0.065 0.366 4 918292 1669 1990 322 1.000 0.097 1.698 10.356 0.074 0.325 5 918301 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.064 0.159 3.273 0.059 0.299 6 918302 1792 1990 199 1.000 0.065 0.008 3.274 0.056 0.368 7 918471 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.088 1.212 6.067 0.077 0.231 8 918472 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.088 1.535 6.495 0.067 0.364 9 918491 1726 1990 265 1.000 0.070 0.307 4.174 0.067 0.217 10 918492 1725 1990 266 1.000 0.075 0.388 3.826 0.070 0.309 11 918501 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.092 2.541 17.865 0.073 0.211 12 918502 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.137 2.555 11.017 0.077 0.609 13 918511 1796 1990 195 1.000 0.075 1.090 5.770 0.056 0.525 14 918512 1798 1990 193 1.000 0.083 0.066 4.452 0.069 0.378 15 918531 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.091 0.288 5.431 0.077 0.386 16 918532 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.099 0.370 5.408 0.071 0.535 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.087 1.078 7.770 0.070 0.349 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.019 1.187 6.754 0.008 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.085 0.539 5.419 0.070 0.345 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.019 1.393 4.425 0.009 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.064 0.008 3.273 0.056 0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.075 0.223 4.000 0.066 0.265 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 261 1.000 0.094 1.617 8.425 0.076 0.382 MAXIMUM VALUE 322 1.000 0.137 4.225 28.709 0.088 0.609 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 918251 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 918252 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 918291 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 918292 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 918301 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 918302 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 918471 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 918472 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 918491 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 918492 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 918501 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 918502 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 918511 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 918512 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 918531 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 918532 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 918251 1663 1828 166 1.000 0.074 0.157 3.806 0.068 0.283 2 918252 1653 1758 106 1.000 0.108 4.417 30.264 0.087 0.082 3 918291 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.075 0.624 4.422 0.065 0.272 4 918292 1669 1990 322 1.000 0.093 1.556 10.361 0.074 0.278 5 918301 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.059 0.110 3.006 0.059 0.200 6 918302 1792 1990 199 1.000 0.060 0.188 3.513 0.056 0.268 7 918471 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.086 1.307 6.583 0.077 0.205 8 918472 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.079 1.844 9.662 0.068 0.195 9 918491 1726 1990 265 1.000 0.067 0.336 3.886 0.067 0.165 10 918492 1725 1990 266 1.000 0.073 0.353 3.695 0.070 0.273 11 918501 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.089 3.123 22.810 0.073 0.143 12 918502 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.126 2.673 12.877 0.077 0.553 13 918511 1796 1990 195 1.000 0.069 0.758 5.171 0.056 0.460 14 918512 1798 1990 193 1.000 0.080 0.094 4.381 0.069 0.337 15 918531 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.084 0.113 6.582 0.077 0.289 16 918532 1734 1990 257 0.999 0.080 -0.046 7.224 0.071 0.294 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.081 1.100 8.640 0.070 0.268 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.017 1.313 7.647 0.008 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.079 0.489 5.876 0.070 0.272 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.016 1.565 6.166 0.010 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 106 0.999 0.059 -0.046 3.006 0.056 0.082 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.071 0.135 3.846 0.066 0.197 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 261 1.000 0.087 1.700 10.011 0.076 0.292 MAXIMUM VALUE 322 1.000 0.126 4.417 30.264 0.087 0.553 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 112 0.326 0.138 0.013 -0.784 4.682 -0.159 0.608 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.159 SERIES 918252 AND 918491 33 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.608 SERIES 918251 AND 918301 21 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 93.33 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.85 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 3. 21. 21. 15. 91. 91. 91. 91. 91. RBAR 0.278 0.407 0.324 0.337 0.290 0.376 0.358 0.414 0.386 0.262 SDEV 0.314 0.188 0.256 0.227 0.153 0.185 0.182 0.164 0.148 0.151 SERR 0.128 0.109 0.056 0.049 0.040 0.019 0.019 0.017 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.629 0.815 0.782 0.818 0.838 0.897 0.886 0.908 0.898 0.833 NSS 4.4 6.4 7.5 8.8 12.7 14.4 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 91. RBAR 0.262 SDEV 0.136 SERR 0.014 EPS 0.832 NSS 14.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1653 1990 338 0.996 0.049 0.584 4.348 0.052 0.107 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.276 0.134 -0.082 105 233 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.11 1.00 1.15 2.26 46.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.107 0.074 0.091 0.037 0.030 0.062 -0.019 -0.053 0.041 -0.060 PACF 0.107 0.064 0.078 0.016 0.014 0.049 -0.036 -0.059 0.046 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.109 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 0.108 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.203 0.144 0.097 0.044 0.052 0.068 0.024 -0.033 -0.004 -0.033 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.203 2 0.181 0.107 3 0.176 0.098 0.052 4 0.176 0.097 0.052 0.002 5 0.176 0.096 0.049 -0.003 0.028 6 0.174 0.096 0.046 -0.007 0.020 0.047 7 0.175 0.096 0.046 -0.007 0.021 0.048 -0.007 8 0.174 0.099 0.048 -0.008 0.024 0.054 0.003 -0.056 9 0.174 0.099 0.048 -0.008 0.024 0.054 0.003 -0.057 0.002 10 0.174 0.097 0.048 -0.006 0.024 0.053 0.004 -0.054 0.006 -0.027 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1580.09 1567.83 1565.94 1567.03 1569.03 1570.75 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1572.01 1573.99 1574.92 1576.92 1578.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.181 0.107 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.23 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.52 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.181 0.140 0.045 0.023 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 918251 2 0.084 0.269 0.055 2 918252 2 0.013 0.089 -0.076 3 918291 2 0.101 0.228 0.166 4 918292 2 0.113 0.235 0.156 5 918301 2 0.061 0.176 0.125 6 918302 2 0.083 0.244 0.100 7 918471 2 0.043 0.201 0.020 8 918472 2 0.048 0.184 0.058 9 918491 2 0.090 0.146 0.130 10 918492 2 0.085 0.261 0.047 11 918501 2 0.027 0.137 0.044 12 918502 2 0.320 0.485 0.124 13 918511 2 0.234 0.384 0.166 14 918512 2 0.147 0.275 0.188 15 918531 2 0.092 0.283 0.026 16 918532 2 0.128 0.252 0.148 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.104 0.241 0.092 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.078 0.095 0.071 MEDIAN 2 0.087 0.239 0.112 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.066 0.092 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.013 0.089 -0.076 LOWER HINGE 2 0.054 0.180 0.046 UPPER HINGE 2 0.121 0.272 0.152 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.320 0.485 0.188 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 918251 1663 1828 166 1.000 0.071 -0.037 4.305 0.079 -0.001 2 918252 1653 1758 106 1.000 0.107 4.425 30.525 0.089 0.001 3 918291 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.071 0.661 4.888 0.074 -0.002 4 918292 1669 1990 322 1.000 0.088 1.874 11.807 0.085 -0.018 5 918301 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.058 0.179 3.111 0.065 -0.009 6 918302 1792 1990 199 1.000 0.058 0.118 3.591 0.064 -0.001 7 918471 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.085 1.162 6.227 0.085 0.000 8 918472 1804 1990 187 1.000 0.077 1.856 10.406 0.075 -0.004 9 918491 1726 1990 265 1.000 0.066 0.419 3.965 0.074 -0.026 10 918492 1725 1990 266 1.000 0.070 0.231 3.132 0.080 -0.004 11 918501 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.088 3.124 23.057 0.079 -0.003 12 918502 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.104 1.388 9.951 0.101 0.008 13 918511 1796 1990 195 1.000 0.061 0.401 4.107 0.068 0.002 14 918512 1798 1990 193 1.000 0.074 0.415 4.236 0.080 -0.004 15 918531 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.081 0.112 5.870 0.088 -0.002 16 918532 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.076 0.053 8.738 0.082 -0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.077 1.024 8.620 0.079 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.000 0.015 1.261 7.730 0.010 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.075 0.417 5.379 0.080 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.018 1.473 6.142 0.011 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 106 1.000 0.058 -0.037 3.111 0.064 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.068 0.149 4.036 0.074 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 261 1.000 0.086 1.622 10.178 0.085 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 322 1.000 0.107 4.425 30.525 0.101 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 112 0.339 0.139 0.013 -0.905 4.427 -0.155 0.625 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.155 SERIES 918252 AND 918491 33 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.625 SERIES 918471 AND 918472 187 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 93.33 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.85 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 3. 21. 21. 15. 91. 91. 91. 91. 91. RBAR 0.282 0.373 0.399 0.388 0.320 0.364 0.319 0.413 0.420 0.307 SDEV 0.314 0.203 0.245 0.234 0.104 0.172 0.200 0.191 0.147 0.135 SERR 0.128 0.117 0.054 0.051 0.027 0.018 0.021 0.020 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.634 0.792 0.832 0.848 0.856 0.892 0.868 0.908 0.910 0.861 NSS 4.4 6.4 7.5 8.8 12.7 14.4 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 91. RBAR 0.286 SDEV 0.126 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.849 NSS 14.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1653 1990 338 0.998 0.049 0.642 4.478 0.059 -0.135 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.255 0.104 -0.057 97 241 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.56 1.00 1.11 2.67 104.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.135 -0.062 0.075 -0.004 0.000 0.045 -0.032 -0.066 0.069 -0.073 PACF -0.135 -0.082 0.057 0.010 0.010 0.044 -0.020 -0.070 0.043 -0.065 95% C.L. 0.109 0.111 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.029 -0.148 -0.084 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 0.009 0.056 0.006 0.010 0.039 -0.030 -0.067 0.046 -0.075 PACF 0.005 0.009 0.056 0.005 0.009 0.036 -0.031 -0.069 0.043 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.110 0.110 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 0.005 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1653 1990 338 0.998 0.050 0.567 4.395 0.050 0.218 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.217 0.165 0.108 0.046 0.031 0.036 -0.027 -0.071 0.006 -0.092 PACF 0.217 0.123 0.054 -0.004 0.003 0.021 -0.047 -0.071 0.039 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.109 0.114 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.066 0.192 0.126 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES