RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS066I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS066I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 927 1 Khandiga-River DENSITY_EARLY LADA - 927 2 Russia Larch 400 6228-13745 1568 1990 - 927 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 927211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 927214 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1837 1837 / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 927221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 10 GAPS / 1708 1708 / 1764 1764 / 1771 1771 / 1797 1797 / / 1818 1818 / 1825 1825 / 1833 1833 / 1838 1838 / / 1854 1855 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 927222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1708 1708 / 1797 1797 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 927231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1764 1764 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 927232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1764 1764 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 927251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1855 1855 / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 927252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1855 1855 / 1943 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 927261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1692 1692 / 1797 1797 / 1855 1855 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 927262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1797 1797 / 1855 1855 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 927271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1797 1797 / 1871 1871 / 1950 1950 / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 927272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 5 GAPS / 1797 1797 / 1871 1871 / 1943 1943 / 1947 1972 / / 1977 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 927301 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 927302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 927311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 927312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 927321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 927322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 927331 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 927332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 927341 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 6 GAPS / 1855 1855 / 1943 1943 / 1956 1956 / 1965 1965 / / 1972 1972 / 1988 1988 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 927342 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1855 1855 / 1943 1943 / 1956 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 927351 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 5 GAPS / 1780 1780 / 1818 1818 / 1823 1823 / 1836 1836 / / 1854 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 927352 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1818 1818 / 1823 1823 / 1837 1837 / 1854 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 927361 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1855 1856 / 1943 1943 / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 927211 1569 1990 422 3.346 0.283 2.306 16.845 0.068 0.205 2 927214 1568 1990 423 3.394 0.366 2.866 17.761 0.079 0.151 3 927221 1588 1990 403 3.205 0.297 1.303 7.232 0.069 0.305 4 927222 1609 1816 208 3.658 0.297 1.475 6.307 0.066 0.239 5 927231 1685 1990 306 3.218 0.323 -0.177 2.432 0.055 0.743 6 927232 1682 1990 309 3.192 0.347 0.327 2.326 0.055 0.760 7 927241 1696 1990 295 2.903 0.259 1.010 7.118 0.047 0.626 8 927242 1692 1990 299 3.030 0.246 0.023 3.296 0.046 0.707 9 927251 1734 1990 257 3.549 0.297 4.017 33.409 0.059 0.045 10 927252 1730 1990 261 3.475 0.334 4.494 31.856 0.066 -0.063 11 927261 1675 1990 316 3.105 0.271 1.077 8.678 0.065 0.378 12 927262 1674 1990 317 3.061 0.284 1.602 13.055 0.070 0.304 13 927271 1580 1990 411 3.300 0.369 2.109 12.263 0.079 0.326 14 927272 1586 2220 635 3.422 0.458 -1.163 20.016 0.066 0.629 15 927282 1786 1990 205 3.137 0.309 0.242 5.364 0.046 0.746 16 927291 1763 1990 228 3.182 0.264 0.440 3.794 0.056 0.571 17 927292 1769 1990 222 3.036 0.263 2.132 17.596 0.058 0.439 18 927301 1793 1990 198 2.884 0.173 0.686 3.681 0.039 0.591 19 927302 1792 1990 199 2.854 0.190 0.726 5.843 0.042 0.579 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 927311 1774 1990 217 3.621 0.260 3.160 28.043 0.053 0.239 21 927312 1772 1990 219 3.758 0.238 0.580 5.268 0.059 0.140 22 927321 1782 1990 209 2.881 0.255 1.089 4.783 0.041 0.779 23 927322 1785 1990 206 2.806 0.154 0.582 4.234 0.037 0.578 24 927331 1722 1990 269 2.929 0.223 0.752 4.489 0.052 0.483 25 927332 1721 1990 270 2.950 0.254 1.202 6.418 0.052 0.525 26 927341 1699 1990 292 3.306 0.278 0.928 5.775 0.059 0.404 27 927342 1686 1990 305 3.231 0.241 1.425 7.746 0.063 0.247 28 927351 1691 1990 300 2.882 0.262 0.970 6.788 0.066 0.471 29 927352 1699 1990 292 2.714 0.291 0.932 5.219 0.063 0.670 30 927361 1728 1990 263 2.871 0.232 1.869 10.585 0.070 -0.010 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1568 TO 2220 653 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 289 3.163 0.277 1.299 10.274 0.058 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 88 0.277 0.061 1.198 8.552 0.011 0.242 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 277 3.160 0.268 1.043 6.603 0.059 0.455 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.443 0.051 1.287 8.272 0.014 0.387 MINIMUM VALUE 197 2.714 0.154 -1.163 2.326 0.037 -0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 218 2.903 0.246 0.582 4.783 0.052 0.239 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 308 3.346 0.297 1.869 13.055 0.066 0.626 MAXIMUM VALUE 605 3.758 0.458 4.494 33.409 0.079 0.779 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.322 0.186 0.009 0.041 3.086 -0.264 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 927232 AND 927341 292 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 927231 AND 927282 205 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 36.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 10. 15. 15. 15. 78. 120. 210. 231. 406. 406. RBAR 0.559 0.539 0.635 0.627 0.361 0.502 0.399 0.396 0.411 0.228 SDEV 0.126 0.110 0.126 0.162 0.222 0.200 0.242 0.238 0.230 0.193 SERR 0.040 0.028 0.033 0.042 0.025 0.018 0.017 0.016 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.879 0.875 0.930 0.954 0.909 0.954 0.940 0.948 0.954 0.895 NSS 5.7 6.0 7.6 12.4 17.6 20.5 23.8 28.1 29.4 29.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 406. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.289 0.258 0.436 0.426 SDEV 0.209 0.190 0.197 0.170 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.922 0.910 0.957 0.956 NSS 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 2220 653 3.194 0.329 -3.527 44.944 0.054 0.554 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.094 -0.105 82 571 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.87 1.00 1.06 1.93 47.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.83 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 281. 90. 198. 219. 309. 635. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.553 0.377 0.135 0.112 0.114 0.132 0.141 0.171 0.216 0.195 PACF 0.553 0.103 -0.158 0.092 0.089 0.025 0.042 0.092 0.108 0.003 95% C.L. 0.078 0.099 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.110 0.111 0.112 0.114 0.116 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.346 0.521 0.185 -0.224 0.046 0.092 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 927211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003115 3.33956170 2 927214 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002588 3.38814640 3 927221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112890 3.43833160 4 927222 1 0.14880386 0.00533790 0.00000000 3.56875992 5 927231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00246928 3.59957647 6 927232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00296793 3.65595031 7 927241 1 1.11149001 0.00270525 0.00000000 2.13794351 8 927242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00192819 3.31912827 9 927251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019757 3.57742023 10 927252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038793 3.42859006 11 927261 1 0.07023398 0.00421095 0.00000000 3.07024622 12 927262 1 0.58445221 0.00315617 0.00000000 2.69466662 13 927271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104138 3.51430583 14 927272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094235 3.73121691 15 927282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00415757 3.56569290 16 927291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00264612 3.48521805 17 927292 1 0.34249380 0.02325762 0.00000000 2.97129917 18 927301 1 0.46820259 0.01098135 0.00000000 2.69544148 19 927302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00199224 3.05427289 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 927311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047526 3.57079720 21 927312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012591 3.74552894 22 927321 1 0.90745431 0.03392769 0.00000000 2.75466871 23 927322 1 0.40283266 0.00722023 0.00000000 2.59735870 24 927331 1 0.44585469 0.00764572 0.00000000 2.74065495 25 927332 1 0.68265164 0.00908900 0.00000000 2.69721913 26 927341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00167802 3.06659055 27 927342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072621 3.12240052 28 927351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006968 2.87408447 29 927352 1 0.55041063 0.00377735 0.00000000 2.38077283 30 927361 1 0.24955748 0.04380411 0.00000000 2.85160685 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 927211 1569 1990 422 1.000 0.084 2.294 16.759 0.068 0.203 2 927214 1568 1990 423 1.000 0.108 2.854 17.757 0.079 0.152 3 927221 1588 1990 403 1.000 0.083 1.489 8.207 0.071 0.112 4 927222 1609 1816 208 1.000 0.081 1.414 6.080 0.066 0.240 5 927231 1685 1990 306 1.000 0.075 0.530 3.232 0.056 0.521 6 927232 1682 1990 309 1.000 0.072 0.640 5.209 0.055 0.459 7 927241 1696 1990 295 1.000 0.066 2.087 15.624 0.047 0.333 8 927242 1692 1990 299 1.000 0.060 0.790 5.632 0.046 0.454 9 927251 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.084 3.929 31.771 0.060 0.033 10 927252 1730 1990 261 1.000 0.096 4.190 28.922 0.067 -0.059 11 927261 1675 1990 316 1.000 0.087 1.047 8.453 0.066 0.373 12 927262 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.087 2.055 14.337 0.072 0.158 13 927271 1580 1990 411 1.000 0.105 2.203 11.852 0.080 0.228 14 927272 1586 2220 635 1.000 0.123 -1.596 26.068 0.067 0.551 15 927282 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.059 1.076 10.596 0.046 0.312 16 927291 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.062 0.625 4.119 0.056 0.219 17 927292 1769 1990 222 1.000 0.082 2.159 16.136 0.058 0.382 18 927301 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.045 0.703 4.243 0.039 0.303 19 927302 1792 1990 199 1.000 0.053 1.017 6.019 0.041 0.376 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 927311 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.071 2.979 26.732 0.053 0.227 21 927312 1772 1990 219 1.000 0.063 0.505 5.120 0.059 0.137 22 927321 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.054 -0.226 4.573 0.041 0.512 23 927322 1785 1990 206 1.000 0.045 0.380 4.101 0.036 0.387 24 927331 1722 1990 269 1.000 0.067 1.320 8.527 0.052 0.315 25 927332 1721 1990 270 1.000 0.064 3.186 25.816 0.052 0.105 26 927341 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.073 1.265 9.062 0.061 0.186 27 927342 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.072 1.445 8.673 0.063 0.197 28 927351 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.091 0.946 6.515 0.068 0.428 29 927352 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.100 0.867 5.064 0.065 0.566 30 927361 1728 1990 263 1.000 0.081 2.020 10.782 0.072 -0.039 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 292 1.000 0.076 1.473 11.866 0.059 0.279 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.000 0.019 1.207 8.379 0.012 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 281 1.000 0.074 1.292 8.600 0.059 0.271 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.024 1.456 10.927 0.015 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 198 1.000 0.045 -1.596 3.232 0.036 -0.059 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.063 0.703 5.209 0.052 0.158 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 309 1.000 0.087 2.159 16.136 0.067 0.387 MAXIMUM VALUE 635 1.000 0.123 4.190 31.771 0.080 0.566 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 927211 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 927214 -67 283 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 927221 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 927222 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 927231 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 927232 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 927241 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 927242 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 927251 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 927252 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 927261 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 927262 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 927271 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 927272 -67 425 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 927282 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 927291 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 927292 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 927301 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 927302 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 927311 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 927312 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 927321 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 927322 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 927331 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 927332 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 927341 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 927342 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 927351 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 927352 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 927361 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 927211 1569 1990 422 1.000 0.083 2.533 18.609 0.068 0.173 2 927214 1568 1990 423 1.000 0.105 3.139 19.590 0.079 0.107 3 927221 1588 1990 403 1.000 0.082 1.594 8.814 0.071 0.082 4 927222 1609 1816 208 1.000 0.076 1.737 7.910 0.066 0.128 5 927231 1685 1990 306 1.000 0.061 0.751 4.993 0.056 0.276 6 927232 1682 1990 309 1.000 0.066 0.683 5.866 0.055 0.357 7 927241 1696 1990 295 1.000 0.059 2.428 18.860 0.047 0.174 8 927242 1692 1990 299 1.000 0.053 0.991 5.769 0.046 0.307 9 927251 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.078 4.148 34.104 0.060 -0.093 10 927252 1730 1990 261 1.000 0.092 3.891 26.612 0.067 -0.112 11 927261 1675 1990 316 1.000 0.083 1.115 9.149 0.066 0.308 12 927262 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.084 2.107 14.579 0.072 0.106 13 927271 1580 1990 411 1.000 0.101 2.266 11.845 0.080 0.182 14 927272 1586 2220 635 1.000 0.110 -2.609 36.987 0.067 0.466 15 927282 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.054 1.850 14.737 0.045 0.178 16 927291 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.056 0.827 5.013 0.056 0.068 17 927292 1769 1990 222 1.000 0.075 2.414 19.780 0.058 0.263 18 927301 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.043 0.789 4.875 0.039 0.248 19 927302 1792 1990 199 1.000 0.052 1.112 6.697 0.041 0.341 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 927311 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.065 4.269 40.862 0.053 0.085 21 927312 1772 1990 219 1.000 0.062 0.590 5.533 0.059 0.106 22 927321 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.051 -0.087 4.610 0.041 0.459 23 927322 1785 1990 206 1.000 0.043 0.518 4.758 0.036 0.337 24 927331 1722 1990 269 1.000 0.062 1.408 10.188 0.052 0.214 25 927332 1721 1990 270 1.000 0.064 3.250 26.305 0.052 0.082 26 927341 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.072 1.438 9.675 0.061 0.149 27 927342 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.070 1.353 8.654 0.063 0.162 28 927351 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.088 0.981 6.908 0.068 0.379 29 927352 1699 1990 292 0.999 0.087 0.896 5.159 0.065 0.445 30 927361 1728 1990 263 1.000 0.081 2.075 11.022 0.072 -0.055 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 292 1.000 0.072 1.615 13.615 0.059 0.197 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.000 0.018 1.372 10.238 0.012 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 281 1.000 0.071 1.423 9.412 0.059 0.176 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.024 1.587 13.092 0.015 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 198 0.999 0.043 -2.609 4.610 0.036 -0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.059 0.827 5.769 0.052 0.106 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 309 1.000 0.083 2.414 18.860 0.067 0.308 MAXIMUM VALUE 635 1.000 0.110 4.269 40.862 0.080 0.466 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.344 0.114 0.005 -0.124 4.863 -0.142 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.142 SERIES 927222 AND 927311 43 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 927251 AND 927252 257 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 36.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 10. 15. 15. 15. 78. 120. 210. 231. 406. 406. RBAR 0.545 0.554 0.654 0.635 0.367 0.506 0.408 0.417 0.417 0.255 SDEV 0.146 0.097 0.109 0.157 0.215 0.200 0.236 0.233 0.214 0.187 SERR 0.046 0.025 0.028 0.040 0.024 0.018 0.016 0.015 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.873 0.882 0.935 0.956 0.911 0.954 0.942 0.953 0.955 0.908 NSS 5.7 6.0 7.6 12.4 17.6 20.5 23.8 28.1 29.4 29.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 406. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.293 0.261 0.473 0.443 SDEV 0.195 0.182 0.179 0.160 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.923 0.911 0.963 0.959 NSS 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 2220 653 0.995 0.090 -3.239 46.441 0.061 0.380 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.324 0.121 -0.088 177 476 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.08 1.01 1.13 2.21 20.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.79 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.250 0.024 -0.016 -0.017 0.018 -0.015 0.007 0.032 0.009 PACF 0.379 0.124 -0.126 -0.022 0.027 0.033 -0.044 0.012 0.049 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.078 0.089 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.171 0.348 0.166 -0.127 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.049 0.064 0.122 -0.059 -0.081 -0.016 -0.023 -0.055 0.032 0.031 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.049 2 -0.046 0.062 3 -0.054 0.068 0.129 4 -0.048 0.072 0.127 -0.051 5 -0.053 0.085 0.134 -0.056 -0.106 6 -0.057 0.083 0.139 -0.053 -0.108 -0.034 7 -0.056 0.083 0.139 -0.054 -0.108 -0.034 0.003 8 -0.056 0.082 0.135 -0.055 -0.103 -0.032 0.001 -0.033 9 -0.056 0.082 0.136 -0.053 -0.102 -0.035 -0.001 -0.031 0.026 10 -0.056 0.083 0.136 -0.052 -0.099 -0.033 -0.006 -0.034 0.028 0.034 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3981.37 3981.79 3981.27 3972.25 3972.54 3967.17 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3968.40 3970.40 3971.70 3973.26 3974.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.054 0.068 0.129 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.29 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.34 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.054 0.071 0.122 -0.009 0.018 0.014 -0.001 0.003 0.002 0.0001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 927211 3 0.078 0.120 0.138 0.157 2 927214 3 0.049 0.074 0.129 0.125 3 927221 3 0.059 0.052 0.132 0.131 4 927222 3 0.069 0.083 0.132 0.176 5 927231 3 0.100 0.227 0.137 0.052 6 927232 3 0.160 0.292 0.135 0.071 7 927241 3 0.069 0.152 0.035 0.186 8 927242 3 0.120 0.257 0.105 0.086 9 927251 3 0.037 -0.097 0.072 0.155 10 927252 3 0.023 -0.105 0.074 0.017 11 927261 3 0.185 0.189 0.214 0.172 12 927262 3 0.035 0.082 0.130 0.073 13 927271 3 0.087 0.125 0.146 0.157 14 927272 3 0.228 0.444 0.102 -0.098 15 927282 3 0.047 0.165 0.029 0.100 16 927291 3 0.014 0.065 0.076 -0.031 17 927292 3 0.079 0.244 0.093 -0.013 18 927301 3 0.072 0.222 0.105 0.002 19 927302 3 0.137 0.298 0.071 0.102 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 927311 3 0.052 0.054 0.191 0.075 21 927312 3 0.035 0.083 0.138 0.055 22 927321 3 0.298 0.307 0.128 0.250 23 927322 3 0.142 0.281 0.104 0.096 24 927331 3 0.139 0.125 0.267 0.104 25 927332 3 0.030 0.063 0.128 0.068 26 927341 3 0.048 0.128 0.059 0.125 27 927342 3 0.059 0.133 0.064 0.162 28 927351 3 0.208 0.264 0.180 0.146 29 927352 3 0.273 0.297 0.159 0.203 30 927361 3 0.034 -0.048 -0.061 0.152 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.099 0.153 0.114 0.102 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.076 0.126 0.061 0.076 MEDIAN 3 0.071 0.131 0.128 0.103 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.092 0.182 0.064 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.014 -0.105 -0.061 -0.098 LOWER HINGE 3 0.047 0.074 0.074 0.068 UPPER HINGE 3 0.139 0.257 0.138 0.157 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.298 0.444 0.267 0.250 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 927211 1569 1990 422 1.000 0.080 2.561 18.729 0.072 -0.001 2 927214 1568 1990 423 1.000 0.103 3.322 21.069 0.083 -0.007 3 927221 1588 1990 403 1.000 0.080 1.660 9.082 0.072 0.017 4 927222 1609 1816 208 1.000 0.073 1.866 8.931 0.068 0.005 5 927231 1685 1990 306 1.000 0.058 0.596 4.942 0.062 0.000 6 927232 1682 1990 309 1.000 0.061 0.493 5.592 0.063 0.004 7 927241 1696 1990 295 1.000 0.057 2.910 24.285 0.051 0.002 8 927242 1692 1990 299 1.000 0.050 1.158 7.694 0.051 -0.006 9 927251 1734 1990 257 1.000 0.077 3.832 31.197 0.058 -0.003 10 927252 1730 1990 261 1.000 0.092 3.721 25.180 0.064 0.001 11 927261 1675 1990 316 1.000 0.075 1.322 10.003 0.073 -0.017 12 927262 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.083 2.210 15.138 0.076 0.001 13 927271 1580 1990 411 1.000 0.097 2.167 11.608 0.086 0.010 14 927272 1586 2220 635 1.000 0.096 -0.805 29.051 0.087 0.001 15 927282 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.053 1.935 15.731 0.050 -0.007 16 927291 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.056 0.878 5.584 0.057 0.002 17 927292 1769 1990 222 1.000 0.072 2.686 22.690 0.066 0.003 18 927301 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.041 0.957 5.496 0.044 0.000 19 927302 1792 1990 199 1.000 0.048 1.313 7.569 0.048 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 927311 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.064 4.466 43.758 0.054 0.004 21 927312 1772 1990 219 1.000 0.061 0.826 6.560 0.061 0.002 22 927321 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.043 0.252 3.684 0.048 -0.006 23 927322 1785 1990 206 1.000 0.040 0.683 5.460 0.041 -0.006 24 927331 1722 1990 269 1.000 0.058 1.874 14.720 0.055 -0.010 25 927332 1721 1990 270 1.000 0.063 3.598 30.112 0.053 -0.002 26 927341 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.070 1.658 11.345 0.066 0.009 27 927342 1686 1990 305 1.000 0.068 1.473 9.441 0.067 -0.003 28 927351 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.078 1.080 6.729 0.077 0.009 29 927352 1699 1990 292 1.000 0.074 1.084 5.945 0.076 0.006 30 927361 1728 1990 263 1.000 0.080 1.972 10.654 0.070 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 292 1.000 0.068 1.792 14.266 0.063 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.000 0.017 1.197 9.981 0.012 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 281 1.000 0.069 1.659 10.328 0.064 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 90 0.000 0.023 1.604 14.509 0.019 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 198 1.000 0.040 -0.805 3.684 0.041 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 219 1.000 0.057 0.957 6.560 0.053 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 309 1.000 0.080 2.561 21.069 0.072 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 635 1.000 0.103 4.466 43.758 0.087 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.383 0.110 0.005 -0.210 5.023 -0.099 0.740 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.099 SERIES 927222 AND 927312 45 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.740 SERIES 927211 AND 927214 422 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 36.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 10. 15. 15. 15. 78. 120. 210. 231. 406. 406. RBAR 0.611 0.601 0.669 0.643 0.387 0.539 0.447 0.453 0.448 0.276 SDEV 0.099 0.060 0.097 0.161 0.205 0.174 0.202 0.212 0.206 0.167 SERR 0.031 0.016 0.025 0.042 0.023 0.016 0.014 0.014 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.900 0.900 0.939 0.957 0.918 0.960 0.950 0.959 0.960 0.917 NSS 5.7 6.0 7.6 12.4 17.6 20.5 23.8 28.1 29.4 29.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 406. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.323 0.301 0.492 0.475 SDEV 0.182 0.166 0.164 0.143 SERR 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.933 0.926 0.966 0.963 NSS 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 2220 653 0.997 0.075 -1.087 40.227 0.065 0.066 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.346 0.143 -0.113 178 475 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.01 1.00 1.10 2.11 22.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.75 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.066 0.062 -0.118 -0.010 0.006 0.038 -0.020 -0.007 0.038 0.010 PACF 0.066 0.058 -0.127 0.003 0.023 0.022 -0.028 -0.005 0.051 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.078 0.079 0.079 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.024 0.070 0.066 -0.127 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.022 0.031 -0.027 -0.014 0.042 0.005 PACF 0.000 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.022 0.031 -0.027 -0.014 0.043 0.005 95% C.L. 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.078 0.079 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 2220 653 0.997 0.076 -0.970 33.975 0.072 -0.049 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.049 0.068 0.129 -0.013 0.034 0.049 -0.024 -0.009 0.040 -0.007 PACF -0.049 0.066 0.137 -0.005 0.015 0.036 -0.022 -0.025 0.032 0.006 95% C.L. 0.078 0.078 0.079 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.081 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.025 -0.055 0.072 0.137 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.74 MINUTES