RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS070X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS070X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 930 1 Seimchan-river DENSITY_MAXIMUM LADA - 930 2 Russia Larch 450 6331-15143 1362 1991 - 930 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 930041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 930112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 25 IN 2 GAPS / 1543 1553 / 1663 1676 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 930121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 96 IN 1 GAPS / 1599 1694 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 930122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 62 IN 1 GAPS / 1663 1724 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 930011 1643 1991 349 0.890 0.097 -1.493 5.721 0.085 0.514 2 930012 1692 1991 300 0.860 0.116 -1.191 4.359 0.093 0.627 3 930021 1389 1991 603 0.837 0.109 -1.116 3.927 0.106 0.441 4 930022 1362 1991 630 0.766 0.115 -0.521 2.973 0.120 0.461 5 930031 1585 1991 407 0.804 0.091 -0.720 3.873 0.089 0.503 6 930032 1605 1991 387 0.828 0.085 -0.688 3.465 0.082 0.493 7 930041 1663 1991 329 0.830 0.111 -0.807 3.471 0.095 0.579 8 930042 1622 1991 370 0.865 0.102 -1.116 4.243 0.098 0.442 9 930051 1627 1933 307 0.817 0.105 -1.029 3.811 0.105 0.461 10 930052 1667 1991 325 0.771 0.113 -0.668 2.986 0.113 0.526 11 930061 1523 1991 469 0.796 0.089 -0.584 3.552 0.088 0.488 12 930062 1513 1991 479 0.761 0.132 -0.296 2.362 0.118 0.645 13 930071 1493 1991 499 0.823 0.132 -0.942 3.254 0.125 0.491 14 930072 1482 1991 510 0.815 0.135 -0.975 3.393 0.145 0.413 15 930081 1606 1991 386 0.895 0.128 -0.850 3.203 0.093 0.636 16 930082 1611 1991 381 0.872 0.118 -0.605 3.134 0.100 0.575 17 930091 1622 1991 370 0.909 0.095 -1.265 5.280 0.090 0.326 18 930092 1629 1991 363 0.894 0.124 -0.757 3.474 0.107 0.532 19 930101 1494 1991 498 0.932 0.155 -0.959 3.334 0.131 0.528 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 930102 1483 1991 509 0.955 0.137 -1.339 4.644 0.130 0.341 21 930111 1440 1991 552 0.855 0.159 -0.451 2.554 0.137 0.585 22 930112 1500 1913 414 0.895 0.155 -0.512 2.517 0.121 0.614 23 930121 1538 1991 454 0.931 0.115 -1.051 4.444 0.093 0.468 24 930122 1502 1991 490 0.846 0.150 -0.594 2.547 0.106 0.692 25 930131 1582 1991 410 0.921 0.139 -0.709 3.071 0.113 0.560 26 930132 1628 1991 364 0.893 0.138 -0.554 2.718 0.094 0.713 27 930141 1755 1991 237 0.946 0.119 -0.844 3.693 0.106 0.467 28 930142 1713 1991 279 0.883 0.151 -0.917 3.236 0.122 0.635 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1362 TO 1991 630 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 409 0.860 0.122 -0.841 3.544 0.107 0.527 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.055 0.021 0.290 0.812 0.017 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 386 0.862 0.118 -0.825 3.429 0.106 0.520 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 135 0.075 0.031 0.440 0.871 0.028 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 237 0.761 0.085 -1.493 2.362 0.082 0.326 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 0.820 0.107 -1.040 3.028 0.093 0.464 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 488 0.895 0.137 -0.599 3.900 0.121 0.600 MAXIMUM VALUE 630 0.955 0.159 -0.296 5.721 0.145 0.713 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.370 0.151 0.008 -0.201 2.952 -0.028 0.790 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.028 SERIES 930101 AND 930141 237 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.790 SERIES 930081 AND 930142 279 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1420. 1445. 1470. 1495. 1520. 1545. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. CORR 1. 1. 3. 3. 21. 45. 66. 66. 91. 136. RBAR 0.827 0.721 0.511 0.496 0.508 0.532 0.486 0.480 0.525 0.491 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.203 0.204 0.141 0.190 0.220 0.187 0.295 0.191 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.117 0.118 0.031 0.028 0.027 0.023 0.031 0.016 EPS 0.909 0.871 0.788 0.864 0.912 0.929 0.922 0.929 0.953 0.955 NSS 2.1 2.6 3.6 6.5 10.0 11.6 12.5 14.2 18.2 22.2 YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 253. 300. 325. 351. 351. 378. 378. 378. 378. 351. RBAR 0.511 0.446 0.346 0.425 0.407 0.475 0.487 0.449 0.499 0.429 SDEV 0.144 0.187 0.210 0.166 0.188 0.178 0.180 0.200 0.179 0.214 SERR 0.009 0.011 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.962 0.954 0.934 0.953 0.950 0.962 0.964 0.958 0.965 0.954 NSS 24.3 25.7 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 325. 325. RBAR 0.407 0.475 SDEV 0.251 0.177 SERR 0.014 0.010 EPS 0.949 0.960 NSS 27.2 26.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1362 1991 630 0.860 0.083 -1.400 5.841 0.085 0.314 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.084 -0.044 0.140 114 516 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.20 1.00 1.03 1.23 49.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 397. 138. 237. 356. 494. 630. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.314 0.145 0.098 0.117 0.155 0.118 0.078 0.066 0.057 0.081 PACF 0.314 0.052 0.043 0.076 0.102 0.033 0.011 0.019 0.008 0.038 95% C.L. 0.080 0.087 0.089 0.089 0.090 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.101 0.314 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 930011 1 0.06012116 0.01429565 0.00000000 0.87800330 2 930012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019113 0.83130145 3 930021 1 0.06893347 0.00291429 0.00000000 0.80450994 4 930022 1 0.16125646 0.00923280 0.00000000 0.73810577 5 930031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024638 0.85399657 6 930032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007316 0.84235865 7 930041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033155 0.87442017 8 930042 1 0.09524230 0.03400351 0.00000000 0.85736889 9 930051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009130 0.83142173 10 930052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061260 0.87059146 11 930061 1 0.18156223 0.00542010 0.00000000 0.73016310 12 930062 1 0.25191194 0.00796008 0.00000000 0.69649678 13 930071 1 0.25884336 0.00287458 0.00000000 0.68534398 14 930072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042890 0.92409283 15 930081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010823 0.91614991 16 930082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011497 0.89419037 17 930091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002343 0.91372532 18 930092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035243 0.95810920 19 930101 1 0.22426316 0.00973352 0.00000000 0.88681048 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 930102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024965 1.01827645 21 930111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004035 0.84351653 22 930112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035965 0.96739453 23 930121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035756 0.83129972 24 930122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049660 0.71947223 25 930131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049916 1.02394402 26 930132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010090 0.91182047 27 930141 1 0.26005358 0.00712679 0.00000000 0.82100534 28 930142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00124344 1.05737889 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 930011 1643 1991 349 1.000 0.108 -1.463 5.741 0.085 0.504 2 930012 1692 1991 300 1.000 0.135 -1.123 4.326 0.093 0.621 3 930021 1389 1991 603 1.000 0.129 -1.148 4.023 0.106 0.428 4 930022 1362 1991 630 1.000 0.143 -0.528 3.290 0.120 0.398 5 930031 1585 1991 407 1.000 0.108 -0.784 4.350 0.089 0.430 6 930032 1605 1991 387 1.000 0.102 -0.612 3.425 0.081 0.488 7 930041 1663 1991 329 1.000 0.137 -0.342 2.802 0.095 0.602 8 930042 1622 1991 370 1.000 0.116 -1.108 4.357 0.097 0.427 9 930051 1627 1933 307 1.000 0.128 -1.007 3.750 0.105 0.457 10 930052 1667 1991 325 1.000 0.130 -0.431 2.900 0.113 0.359 11 930061 1523 1991 469 1.000 0.096 -1.151 4.749 0.088 0.298 12 930062 1513 1991 479 1.000 0.155 -0.293 2.591 0.118 0.529 13 930071 1493 1991 499 1.000 0.148 -0.983 3.672 0.125 0.378 14 930072 1482 1991 510 1.000 0.149 -1.092 4.079 0.144 0.245 15 930081 1606 1991 386 1.000 0.142 -0.873 3.344 0.093 0.627 16 930082 1611 1991 381 1.000 0.135 -0.488 3.018 0.100 0.573 17 930091 1622 1991 370 1.000 0.104 -1.285 5.315 0.090 0.323 18 930092 1629 1991 363 1.000 0.132 -0.850 3.708 0.106 0.466 19 930101 1494 1991 498 1.000 0.158 -0.910 3.519 0.131 0.459 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 930102 1483 1991 509 1.000 0.140 -1.254 4.609 0.130 0.295 21 930111 1440 1991 552 1.000 0.186 -0.449 2.541 0.136 0.584 22 930112 1500 1913 414 1.000 0.165 -0.585 2.720 0.122 0.546 23 930121 1538 1991 454 1.000 0.121 -0.951 4.122 0.093 0.464 24 930122 1502 1991 490 1.000 0.155 -0.292 2.938 0.106 0.578 25 930131 1582 1991 410 1.000 0.138 -0.706 3.494 0.112 0.465 26 930132 1628 1991 364 1.000 0.154 -0.628 2.812 0.094 0.707 27 930141 1755 1991 237 1.000 0.111 -0.836 3.928 0.106 0.289 28 930142 1713 1991 279 1.000 0.136 -0.675 3.512 0.122 0.373 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 417 1.000 0.134 -0.816 3.701 0.107 0.461 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.021 0.323 0.810 0.017 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 397 1.000 0.135 -0.843 3.595 0.106 0.462 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 138 0.000 0.030 0.544 1.245 0.028 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 237 1.000 0.096 -1.463 2.541 0.081 0.245 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 356 1.000 0.119 -1.100 2.978 0.093 0.376 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 494 1.000 0.148 -0.556 4.224 0.121 0.559 MAXIMUM VALUE 630 1.000 0.186 -0.292 5.741 0.144 0.707 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 930011 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 930012 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 930021 -67 404 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 930022 -67 422 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 930031 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 930032 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 930041 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 930042 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 930051 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 930052 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 930061 -67 314 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 930062 -67 320 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 930071 -67 334 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 930072 -67 341 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 930081 -67 258 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 930082 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 930091 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 930092 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 930101 -67 333 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 930102 -67 341 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 930111 -67 369 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 930112 -67 277 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 930121 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 930122 -67 328 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 930131 -67 274 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 930132 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 930141 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 930142 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 930011 1643 1991 349 1.000 0.104 -1.273 5.573 0.085 0.456 2 930012 1692 1991 300 0.999 0.122 -0.968 4.626 0.093 0.519 3 930021 1389 1991 603 1.000 0.125 -1.175 4.212 0.106 0.387 4 930022 1362 1991 630 1.000 0.141 -0.589 3.352 0.120 0.381 5 930031 1585 1991 407 1.000 0.102 -0.739 4.234 0.089 0.369 6 930032 1605 1991 387 1.000 0.099 -0.586 3.403 0.081 0.456 7 930041 1663 1991 329 0.999 0.116 -0.579 3.735 0.095 0.424 8 930042 1622 1991 370 1.000 0.115 -1.184 4.490 0.097 0.407 9 930051 1627 1933 307 0.999 0.122 -1.051 3.921 0.105 0.403 10 930052 1667 1991 325 1.000 0.126 -0.425 3.023 0.113 0.308 11 930061 1523 1991 469 1.000 0.096 -1.103 4.698 0.088 0.283 12 930062 1513 1991 479 1.000 0.153 -0.315 2.606 0.118 0.516 13 930071 1493 1991 499 1.000 0.145 -0.962 3.768 0.125 0.348 14 930072 1482 1991 510 1.000 0.148 -1.127 4.263 0.144 0.227 15 930081 1606 1991 386 1.000 0.116 -0.971 4.169 0.093 0.408 16 930082 1611 1991 381 0.999 0.120 -0.396 3.526 0.100 0.459 17 930091 1622 1991 370 1.000 0.099 -1.161 5.631 0.090 0.256 18 930092 1629 1991 363 0.999 0.120 -0.762 3.962 0.106 0.332 19 930101 1494 1991 498 0.999 0.151 -0.893 3.704 0.131 0.407 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 930102 1483 1991 509 1.000 0.135 -1.296 4.718 0.130 0.233 21 930111 1440 1991 552 0.999 0.174 -0.525 2.727 0.136 0.517 22 930112 1500 1913 414 1.000 0.159 -0.664 2.823 0.122 0.515 23 930121 1538 1991 454 1.000 0.118 -0.959 4.265 0.093 0.429 24 930122 1502 1991 490 1.000 0.152 -0.251 2.966 0.106 0.558 25 930131 1582 1991 410 0.999 0.133 -0.754 3.647 0.112 0.423 26 930132 1628 1991 364 0.999 0.117 -0.407 3.808 0.094 0.439 27 930141 1755 1991 237 1.000 0.108 -0.914 4.199 0.106 0.235 28 930142 1713 1991 279 1.000 0.129 -0.546 3.895 0.122 0.290 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 417 1.000 0.127 -0.806 3.927 0.107 0.392 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.020 0.309 0.753 0.017 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 397 1.000 0.122 -0.828 3.908 0.106 0.407 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 138 0.000 0.028 0.515 0.799 0.028 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 237 0.999 0.096 -1.296 2.606 0.081 0.227 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 356 0.999 0.115 -1.077 3.465 0.093 0.320 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 494 1.000 0.143 -0.563 4.264 0.121 0.456 MAXIMUM VALUE 630 1.000 0.174 -0.251 5.631 0.144 0.558 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.403 0.098 0.005 -0.085 3.812 0.069 0.745 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.069 SERIES 930012 AND 930122 300 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.745 SERIES 930072 AND 930101 498 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1420. 1445. 1470. 1495. 1520. 1545. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. CORR 1. 1. 3. 3. 21. 45. 66. 66. 91. 136. RBAR 0.849 0.759 0.500 0.508 0.506 0.524 0.492 0.503 0.530 0.498 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.203 0.197 0.143 0.205 0.214 0.184 0.265 0.186 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.117 0.114 0.031 0.031 0.026 0.023 0.028 0.016 EPS 0.922 0.891 0.781 0.870 0.911 0.927 0.924 0.935 0.954 0.957 NSS 2.1 2.6 3.6 6.5 10.0 11.6 12.5 14.2 18.2 22.2 YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 253. 300. 325. 351. 351. 378. 378. 378. 378. 351. RBAR 0.494 0.449 0.355 0.427 0.412 0.476 0.487 0.458 0.502 0.429 SDEV 0.156 0.189 0.208 0.165 0.183 0.177 0.176 0.193 0.175 0.200 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.959 0.954 0.936 0.953 0.951 0.962 0.964 0.959 0.966 0.954 NSS 24.3 25.7 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 325. 325. RBAR 0.402 0.470 SDEV 0.241 0.176 SERR 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.948 0.959 NSS 27.2 26.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1362 1991 630 1.001 0.093 -1.346 5.426 0.087 0.222 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.304 -0.130 0.214 204 426 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.57 1.00 1.08 1.65 48.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.221 0.055 0.010 0.032 0.080 0.052 0.014 -0.009 -0.025 0.011 PACF 0.221 0.006 -0.004 0.032 0.070 0.019 -0.006 -0.013 -0.024 0.016 95% C.L. 0.080 0.083 0.084 0.084 0.084 0.084 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.049 0.222 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.200 0.057 0.008 0.072 0.148 0.091 0.065 -0.028 -0.023 0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.200 2 0.196 0.018 3 0.196 0.019 -0.007 4 0.197 0.018 -0.021 0.073 5 0.188 0.020 -0.023 0.048 0.126 6 0.183 0.018 -0.023 0.048 0.119 0.037 7 0.182 0.014 -0.024 0.048 0.119 0.030 0.035 8 0.184 0.016 -0.018 0.051 0.117 0.031 0.045 -0.054 9 0.182 0.017 -0.017 0.054 0.119 0.031 0.045 -0.049 -0.027 10 0.182 0.017 -0.017 0.054 0.120 0.031 0.045 -0.049 -0.025 -0.011 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4789.66 4765.99 4767.80 4769.77 4768.39 4760.27 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4761.42 4762.66 4762.80 4764.35 4766.28 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.200 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.99 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.16 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.200 0.040 0.008 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 930011 1 0.230 0.456 2 930012 1 0.274 0.519 3 930021 1 0.168 0.388 4 930022 1 0.165 0.381 5 930031 1 0.164 0.377 6 930032 1 0.236 0.459 7 930041 1 0.200 0.424 8 930042 1 0.171 0.407 9 930051 1 0.214 0.407 10 930052 1 0.102 0.308 11 930061 1 0.091 0.283 12 930062 1 0.283 0.517 13 930071 1 0.146 0.349 14 930072 1 0.057 0.227 15 930081 1 0.209 0.414 16 930082 1 0.212 0.459 17 930091 1 0.083 0.257 18 930092 1 0.121 0.333 19 930101 1 0.170 0.407 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 930102 1 0.061 0.233 21 930111 1 0.283 0.518 22 930112 1 0.285 0.516 23 930121 1 0.196 0.430 24 930122 1 0.325 0.560 25 930131 1 0.188 0.424 26 930132 1 0.198 0.445 27 930141 1 0.064 0.235 28 930142 1 0.104 0.291 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.179 0.394 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.074 0.095 MEDIAN 1 0.179 0.407 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.109 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.057 0.227 LOWER HINGE 1 0.112 0.320 UPPER HINGE 1 0.222 0.457 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.325 0.560 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 930011 1643 1991 349 1.000 0.093 -1.266 6.249 0.103 -0.076 2 930012 1692 1991 300 1.000 0.104 -1.019 5.838 0.114 -0.041 3 930021 1389 1991 603 1.000 0.115 -1.138 4.773 0.128 -0.056 4 930022 1362 1991 630 1.000 0.130 -0.754 4.193 0.143 -0.058 5 930031 1585 1991 407 1.000 0.094 -0.641 4.011 0.107 -0.062 6 930032 1605 1991 387 1.000 0.088 -0.590 4.104 0.100 -0.081 7 930041 1663 1991 329 1.000 0.105 -0.614 4.253 0.114 -0.066 8 930042 1622 1991 370 1.000 0.105 -1.258 5.136 0.114 -0.031 9 930051 1627 1933 307 1.000 0.112 -0.989 4.224 0.127 -0.092 10 930052 1667 1991 325 1.000 0.120 -0.494 3.580 0.130 -0.027 11 930061 1523 1991 469 1.000 0.092 -1.015 4.685 0.100 -0.031 12 930062 1513 1991 479 1.000 0.131 -0.343 3.478 0.146 -0.077 13 930071 1493 1991 499 1.000 0.136 -1.014 4.396 0.145 -0.058 14 930072 1482 1991 510 1.000 0.144 -1.142 4.337 0.159 -0.017 15 930081 1606 1991 386 1.000 0.106 -0.660 4.322 0.113 -0.087 16 930082 1611 1991 381 1.000 0.107 -0.638 4.205 0.119 -0.021 17 930091 1622 1991 370 1.000 0.096 -1.203 6.227 0.101 -0.035 18 930092 1629 1991 363 1.000 0.113 -0.822 4.544 0.122 -0.036 19 930101 1494 1991 498 1.000 0.138 -0.917 3.887 0.153 -0.028 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 930102 1483 1991 509 1.000 0.131 -1.287 4.875 0.144 -0.020 21 930111 1440 1991 552 1.000 0.149 -0.606 3.424 0.167 -0.075 22 930112 1500 1913 414 1.000 0.137 -0.748 4.055 0.153 -0.081 23 930121 1538 1991 454 1.000 0.106 -1.109 5.064 0.113 -0.049 24 930122 1502 1991 490 1.000 0.126 -0.408 4.814 0.133 -0.073 25 930131 1582 1991 410 1.000 0.121 -0.806 4.123 0.132 -0.039 26 930132 1628 1991 364 1.000 0.105 -0.533 4.123 0.111 -0.010 27 930141 1755 1991 237 1.000 0.105 -1.036 4.525 0.117 -0.022 28 930142 1713 1991 279 1.000 0.124 -0.519 3.653 0.139 -0.042 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 417 1.000 0.115 -0.842 4.468 0.127 -0.050 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.000 0.017 0.282 0.727 0.019 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 397 1.000 0.112 -0.814 4.287 0.125 -0.046 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 138 0.000 0.026 0.463 0.714 0.030 0.045 MINIMUM VALUE 237 1.000 0.088 -1.287 3.424 0.100 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 356 1.000 0.105 -1.073 4.080 0.113 -0.074 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 494 1.000 0.131 -0.610 4.794 0.143 -0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 630 1.000 0.149 -0.343 6.249 0.167 -0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.488 0.075 0.004 0.319 3.903 0.269 0.771 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.269 SERIES 930112 AND 930141 159 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.771 SERIES 930072 AND 930101 498 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.69 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1420. 1445. 1470. 1495. 1520. 1545. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. CORR 1. 1. 3. 3. 21. 45. 66. 66. 91. 136. RBAR 0.879 0.807 0.493 0.457 0.541 0.551 0.514 0.495 0.550 0.595 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.168 0.195 0.128 0.192 0.178 0.162 0.228 0.133 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.097 0.113 0.028 0.029 0.022 0.020 0.024 0.011 EPS 0.939 0.916 0.776 0.845 0.922 0.934 0.930 0.933 0.957 0.970 NSS 2.1 2.6 3.6 6.5 10.0 11.6 12.5 14.2 18.2 22.2 YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 253. 300. 325. 351. 351. 378. 378. 378. 378. 351. RBAR 0.553 0.432 0.399 0.449 0.477 0.551 0.547 0.520 0.572 0.499 SDEV 0.134 0.178 0.155 0.143 0.140 0.141 0.143 0.149 0.131 0.154 SERR 0.008 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.968 0.951 0.946 0.957 0.962 0.972 0.971 0.968 0.974 0.965 NSS 24.3 25.7 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 325. 325. RBAR 0.481 0.550 SDEV 0.169 0.143 SERR 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.962 0.970 NSS 27.2 26.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1362 1991 630 1.001 0.089 -1.437 6.519 0.099 -0.141 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.284 -0.110 0.180 210 420 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.61 1.00 1.08 1.69 50.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.141 -0.026 -0.029 0.001 0.049 0.029 -0.004 -0.011 -0.036 0.046 PACF -0.141 -0.046 -0.041 -0.011 0.046 0.042 0.010 -0.004 -0.037 0.033 95% C.L. 0.080 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 -0.141 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 -0.051 -0.034 0.003 0.055 0.036 -0.002 -0.017 -0.033 0.036 PACF -0.007 -0.051 -0.035 0.000 0.052 0.036 0.004 -0.010 -0.031 0.031 95% C.L. 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1362 1991 630 1.001 0.090 -1.432 5.923 0.086 0.183 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.182 -0.019 -0.034 0.008 0.061 0.046 0.003 -0.021 -0.031 0.017 PACF 0.182 -0.054 -0.021 0.018 0.056 0.025 -0.006 -0.015 -0.025 0.023 95% C.L. 0.080 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.036 0.182 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES