RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS072N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS072N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 932 1 Nyuchpas DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 932 2 Russia Norway spruce 155 6042-5123 1650 1991 - 932 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 932401 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 54 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 932402 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 55 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 932412 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1877 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 932422 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 932462 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 0.238 0.027 0.403 3.988 0.088 0.450 2 932352 1873 1991 119 0.245 0.020 0.199 2.846 0.073 0.286 3 932361 1844 1991 148 0.274 0.028 0.283 2.952 0.073 0.572 4 932362 1848 1991 144 0.280 0.033 0.983 5.338 0.073 0.630 5 932371 1800 1991 192 0.292 0.026 0.991 5.505 0.069 0.466 6 932372 1859 1991 133 0.296 0.025 0.207 3.425 0.081 0.289 7 932381 1736 1991 256 0.331 0.036 1.014 3.796 0.065 0.634 8 932382 1741 1991 251 0.335 0.029 0.677 4.596 0.067 0.447 9 932391 1674 1991 318 0.362 0.044 0.795 3.103 0.065 0.746 10 932393 1650 1991 342 0.295 0.038 1.251 5.778 0.076 0.643 11 932401 1709 1991 283 0.351 0.033 0.618 3.860 0.081 0.315 12 932402 1707 1991 285 0.321 0.034 1.640 8.462 0.100 0.108 13 932411 1847 1991 145 0.332 0.039 2.155 12.007 0.081 0.550 14 932412 1821 1991 171 0.326 0.046 0.704 2.861 0.070 0.784 15 932421 1770 1991 222 0.326 0.040 0.592 3.326 0.065 0.752 16 932422 1832 1991 160 0.289 0.027 0.438 2.984 0.070 0.504 17 932431 1856 1991 136 0.294 0.025 0.727 4.592 0.062 0.474 18 932432 1850 1991 142 0.335 0.030 0.625 2.849 0.064 0.536 19 932441 1773 1991 219 0.264 0.025 -0.437 3.363 0.062 0.596 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 0.255 0.024 -0.100 3.614 0.083 0.279 21 932451 1828 1991 164 0.306 0.035 0.974 6.935 0.081 0.550 22 932452 1753 1991 239 0.312 0.047 0.241 3.087 0.081 0.772 23 932461 1856 1991 136 0.286 0.024 0.369 3.301 0.070 0.393 24 932462 1758 1991 234 0.321 0.033 0.719 4.611 0.080 0.492 25 932471 1793 1991 199 0.287 0.024 -0.200 3.312 0.060 0.573 26 932472 1783 1991 209 0.272 0.028 1.141 8.655 0.077 0.416 27 932481 1787 1991 205 0.292 0.028 0.560 3.714 0.069 0.538 28 932482 1776 1991 216 0.298 0.035 0.247 4.469 0.083 0.541 29 932491 1759 1991 233 0.349 0.048 2.142 12.810 0.080 0.589 30 932492 1774 1991 218 0.360 0.044 0.796 4.641 0.075 0.635 31 932502 1818 1991 174 0.292 0.031 0.153 3.305 0.074 0.567 32 932503 1827 1991 165 0.282 0.035 -0.505 2.687 0.074 0.694 33 932511 1756 1991 236 0.312 0.040 1.178 7.103 0.077 0.642 34 932513 1722 1991 270 0.307 0.049 0.363 4.606 0.084 0.749 35 932521 1737 1991 255 0.344 0.046 0.740 3.471 0.094 0.460 36 932522 1746 1991 246 0.338 0.047 0.461 3.450 0.104 0.430 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 36 FROM 1650 TO 1991 342 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 203 0.305 0.034 0.643 4.706 0.076 0.531 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.032 0.008 0.588 2.425 0.010 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 0.302 0.033 0.621 3.755 0.075 0.545 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 83 0.045 0.014 0.713 1.687 0.012 0.186 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.238 0.020 -0.505 2.687 0.060 0.108 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 0.287 0.027 0.265 3.303 0.069 0.449 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 0.331 0.040 0.978 4.990 0.081 0.635 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 0.362 0.049 2.155 12.810 0.104 0.784 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 630 0.230 0.229 0.009 -0.468 3.218 -0.500 0.700 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.500 SERIES 932412 AND 932503 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.700 SERIES 932441 AND 932513 219 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 6. 10. 78. 171. 231. 351. 595. 630. 630. RBAR 0.600 0.470 0.365 0.372 0.291 0.432 0.338 0.290 0.245 0.269 SDEV 0.000 0.162 0.169 0.178 0.199 0.154 0.205 0.179 0.215 0.228 SERR 0.000 0.066 0.053 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.011 0.007 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.834 0.855 0.873 0.915 0.902 0.953 0.943 0.936 0.921 0.930 NSS 3.3 6.6 12.0 18.1 22.5 26.7 32.5 35.7 36.0 36.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 630. RBAR 0.250 SDEV 0.207 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.923 NSS 36.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.321 0.031 1.223 5.789 0.057 0.641 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.232 -0.119 0.072 89 253 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.31 1.00 1.05 1.36 4.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 210. 88. 119. 154. 242. 342. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.640 0.613 0.545 0.545 0.525 0.498 0.502 0.464 0.466 0.476 PACF 0.640 0.346 0.129 0.156 0.111 0.052 0.093 0.012 0.050 0.092 95% C.L. 0.108 0.146 0.173 0.192 0.210 0.224 0.237 0.249 0.259 0.269 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.546 0.318 0.227 0.094 0.120 0.107 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 932351 1 0.02121566 0.02478966 0.00000000 0.23184988 2 932352 1 0.00649935 0.07010322 0.00000000 0.24454221 3 932361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023603 0.25606453 4 932362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055621 0.23960567 5 932371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011996 0.28035069 6 932372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019572 0.30867738 7 932381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005296 0.33766451 8 932382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015983 0.35527745 9 932391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012385 0.34228954 10 932393 1 0.11081457 0.01427032 0.00000000 0.27248228 11 932401 1 0.02855454 0.00484767 0.00000000 0.33317584 12 932402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004743 0.31400517 13 932411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025358 0.35023564 14 932412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045041 0.28714123 15 932421 1 0.10335109 0.00870021 0.00000000 0.28039753 16 932422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000977 0.28795895 17 932431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038266 0.32003596 18 932432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017930 0.32225052 19 932441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022223 0.28818944 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 932443 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015127 0.27073327 21 932451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032035 0.33203876 22 932452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053835 0.37677789 23 932461 1 0.03851202 0.02648742 0.00000000 0.27576736 24 932462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009649 0.30937815 25 932471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011489 0.27579716 26 932472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009517 0.28233713 27 932481 1 0.07388356 0.02747722 0.00000000 0.27862173 28 932482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026082 0.32589105 29 932491 1 0.12379601 0.01344279 0.00000000 0.31116840 30 932492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046397 0.41048408 31 932502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034264 0.32199258 32 932503 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043040 0.31723800 33 932511 1 0.14027925 0.00464876 0.00000000 0.22663841 34 932513 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051049 0.37620845 35 932521 1 0.07797599 0.00706153 0.00000000 0.30758503 36 932522 1 0.16463752 0.00217220 0.00000000 0.21066062 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.111 0.640 4.297 0.087 0.435 2 932352 1873 1991 119 1.000 0.080 0.203 2.831 0.073 0.279 3 932361 1844 1991 148 1.000 0.097 0.750 4.009 0.073 0.496 4 932362 1848 1991 144 1.000 0.085 0.885 5.409 0.073 0.287 5 932371 1800 1991 192 1.000 0.087 0.886 4.651 0.068 0.434 6 932372 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.083 0.660 4.694 0.081 0.205 7 932381 1736 1991 256 1.000 0.109 1.164 4.036 0.065 0.635 8 932382 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.078 1.235 6.422 0.067 0.343 9 932391 1674 1991 318 1.000 0.118 0.884 3.347 0.065 0.723 10 932393 1650 1991 342 1.000 0.086 0.657 3.727 0.076 0.294 11 932401 1709 1991 283 1.000 0.090 0.725 4.499 0.080 0.274 12 932402 1707 1991 285 1.000 0.103 1.250 7.386 0.099 0.088 13 932411 1847 1991 145 1.000 0.112 2.117 11.769 0.080 0.511 14 932412 1821 1991 171 1.000 0.123 0.546 3.067 0.068 0.684 15 932421 1770 1991 222 1.000 0.096 -0.003 2.516 0.065 0.625 16 932422 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.092 0.487 3.042 0.068 0.503 17 932431 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.067 0.589 3.730 0.062 0.177 18 932432 1850 1991 142 1.000 0.087 0.684 3.313 0.064 0.479 19 932441 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.078 -0.017 3.229 0.062 0.398 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.087 0.196 4.676 0.083 0.141 21 932451 1828 1991 164 1.000 0.099 0.476 5.724 0.081 0.430 22 932452 1753 1991 239 1.000 0.091 0.332 3.032 0.081 0.332 23 932461 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.077 0.081 3.253 0.070 0.279 24 932462 1758 1991 234 1.000 0.099 0.611 4.139 0.079 0.467 25 932471 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.079 -0.343 3.359 0.060 0.527 26 932472 1783 1991 209 1.000 0.101 1.062 7.196 0.077 0.400 27 932481 1787 1991 205 1.000 0.073 0.096 3.132 0.069 0.255 28 932482 1776 1991 216 1.000 0.104 0.366 3.732 0.083 0.419 29 932491 1759 1991 233 1.000 0.098 1.764 10.229 0.080 0.309 30 932492 1774 1991 218 1.000 0.088 0.776 4.537 0.075 0.344 31 932502 1818 1991 174 1.000 0.086 0.108 3.086 0.074 0.385 32 932503 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.103 -0.115 2.562 0.073 0.572 33 932511 1756 1991 236 1.000 0.093 1.131 7.662 0.077 0.406 34 932513 1722 1991 270 1.000 0.092 0.481 4.267 0.084 0.307 35 932521 1737 1991 255 1.000 0.123 1.030 4.904 0.094 0.331 36 932522 1746 1991 246 1.000 0.127 0.768 6.645 0.103 0.275 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.000 0.095 0.643 4.670 0.076 0.390 STANDARD DEVIATION 56 0.000 0.015 0.512 2.080 0.010 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.092 0.648 4.088 0.075 0.392 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 88 0.000 0.017 0.618 1.916 0.012 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 119 1.000 0.067 -0.343 2.516 0.060 0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.086 0.268 3.241 0.068 0.283 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 242 1.000 0.103 0.885 5.157 0.081 0.488 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.127 2.117 11.769 0.103 0.723 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 932351 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 932352 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 932361 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 932362 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 932371 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 932372 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 932381 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 932382 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 932391 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 932393 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 932401 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 932402 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 932411 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 932412 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 932421 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 932422 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 932431 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 932432 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 932441 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 932443 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 932451 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 932452 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 932461 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 932462 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 932471 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 932472 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 932481 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 932482 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 932491 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 932492 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 932502 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 932503 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 932511 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 932513 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 932521 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 932522 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 0.999 0.105 0.633 4.136 0.087 0.381 2 932352 1873 1991 119 1.000 0.076 0.191 2.801 0.073 0.218 3 932361 1844 1991 148 0.999 0.077 0.385 3.740 0.073 0.241 4 932362 1848 1991 144 1.000 0.078 0.686 4.958 0.073 0.200 5 932371 1800 1991 192 1.000 0.077 0.708 4.249 0.068 0.283 6 932372 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.079 0.797 5.284 0.081 0.134 7 932381 1736 1991 256 0.999 0.096 1.059 3.989 0.065 0.550 8 932382 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.076 1.176 6.231 0.067 0.308 9 932391 1674 1991 318 1.000 0.105 0.706 3.426 0.065 0.657 10 932393 1650 1991 342 1.000 0.084 0.701 3.901 0.076 0.258 11 932401 1709 1991 283 1.000 0.083 0.588 4.029 0.080 0.166 12 932402 1707 1991 285 1.000 0.101 1.023 6.478 0.099 0.060 13 932411 1847 1991 145 1.000 0.104 2.246 13.176 0.081 0.431 14 932412 1821 1991 171 0.999 0.090 0.547 3.544 0.068 0.468 15 932421 1770 1991 222 1.000 0.089 0.096 2.925 0.065 0.557 16 932422 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.081 0.436 3.640 0.069 0.362 17 932431 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.064 0.539 3.734 0.062 0.116 18 932432 1850 1991 142 0.999 0.073 0.594 3.234 0.064 0.290 19 932441 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.068 0.140 3.356 0.062 0.203 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.085 0.294 4.578 0.083 0.091 21 932451 1828 1991 164 1.000 0.092 0.607 7.361 0.081 0.330 22 932452 1753 1991 239 1.000 0.087 0.301 3.066 0.081 0.266 23 932461 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.075 0.070 3.340 0.070 0.230 24 932462 1758 1991 234 1.000 0.091 0.528 4.549 0.079 0.367 25 932471 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.070 -0.242 3.557 0.060 0.412 26 932472 1783 1991 209 0.999 0.087 0.817 6.454 0.077 0.251 27 932481 1787 1991 205 1.000 0.072 0.134 3.216 0.069 0.230 28 932482 1776 1991 216 1.000 0.096 0.721 4.601 0.083 0.309 29 932491 1759 1991 233 1.000 0.097 1.789 10.579 0.080 0.294 30 932492 1774 1991 218 1.000 0.085 0.886 5.113 0.075 0.307 31 932502 1818 1991 174 1.000 0.078 0.101 3.418 0.074 0.246 32 932503 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.076 -0.168 3.301 0.074 0.218 33 932511 1756 1991 236 1.000 0.091 1.260 8.437 0.077 0.369 34 932513 1722 1991 270 1.000 0.082 0.493 4.734 0.084 0.143 35 932521 1737 1991 255 0.999 0.107 0.857 4.523 0.094 0.157 36 932522 1746 1991 246 0.999 0.117 0.932 7.211 0.103 0.160 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.000 0.086 0.629 4.858 0.076 0.285 STANDARD DEVIATION 56 0.000 0.012 0.496 2.220 0.010 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.085 0.600 4.083 0.075 0.262 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 88 0.000 0.017 0.540 1.776 0.012 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.999 0.064 -0.242 2.801 0.060 0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.077 0.298 3.422 0.068 0.201 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 242 1.000 0.094 0.837 5.199 0.081 0.365 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.117 2.246 13.176 0.103 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 630 0.263 0.112 0.004 -0.002 3.339 -0.059 0.704 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.059 SERIES 932351 AND 932412 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.704 SERIES 932401 AND 932402 283 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 6. 10. 78. 171. 231. 351. 595. 630. 630. RBAR 0.670 0.516 0.337 0.370 0.328 0.389 0.373 0.309 0.271 0.286 SDEV 0.000 0.139 0.195 0.171 0.175 0.152 0.180 0.170 0.188 0.197 SERR 0.000 0.057 0.062 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.872 0.876 0.859 0.914 0.916 0.944 0.951 0.941 0.930 0.935 NSS 3.3 6.6 12.0 18.1 22.5 26.7 32.5 35.7 36.0 36.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 630. RBAR 0.258 SDEV 0.180 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.926 NSS 36.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.996 0.060 0.525 3.209 0.061 0.162 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.159 0.074 -0.015 129 213 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.49 1.00 1.06 1.55 28.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.161 0.091 0.064 0.072 0.059 0.014 0.005 -0.028 -0.054 0.000 PACF 0.161 0.066 0.040 0.052 0.035 -0.011 -0.007 -0.037 -0.052 0.019 95% C.L. 0.108 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.163 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.066 0.018 0.016 0.051 0.086 -0.031 0.044 -0.061 -0.087 0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.066 2 0.065 0.014 3 0.065 0.013 0.013 4 0.064 0.013 0.010 0.049 5 0.060 0.012 0.009 0.044 0.079 6 0.064 0.014 0.010 0.044 0.082 -0.044 7 0.066 0.010 0.008 0.044 0.082 -0.047 0.046 8 0.069 0.007 0.013 0.047 0.082 -0.046 0.051 -0.071 9 0.063 0.011 0.009 0.054 0.086 -0.045 0.051 -0.065 -0.088 10 0.068 0.014 0.007 0.056 0.082 -0.048 0.051 -0.065 -0.091 0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2117.02 2117.52 2119.45 2121.39 2122.58 2122.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2123.75 2125.02 2125.30 2124.64 2125.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 932351 0 0.152 2 932352 0 0.049 3 932361 0 0.060 4 932362 0 0.042 5 932371 0 0.081 6 932372 0 0.018 7 932381 0 0.310 8 932382 0 0.095 9 932391 0 0.432 10 932393 0 0.068 11 932401 0 0.028 12 932402 0 0.004 13 932411 0 0.186 14 932412 0 0.227 15 932421 0 0.314 16 932422 0 0.138 17 932431 0 0.014 18 932432 0 0.091 19 932441 0 0.042 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 932443 0 0.009 21 932451 0 0.114 22 932452 0 0.071 23 932461 0 0.053 24 932462 0 0.135 25 932471 0 0.171 26 932472 0 0.072 27 932481 0 0.053 28 932482 0 0.097 29 932491 0 0.088 30 932492 0 0.095 31 932502 0 0.062 32 932503 0 0.049 33 932511 0 0.149 34 932513 0 0.022 35 932521 0 0.025 36 932522 0 0.028 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.095 MEDIAN 0 0.072 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.004 LOWER HINGE 0 0.042 UPPER HINGE 0 0.137 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.432 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.105 0.633 4.136 0.087 0.381 2 932352 1873 1991 119 1.000 0.076 0.191 2.801 0.073 0.218 3 932361 1844 1991 148 1.000 0.077 0.385 3.740 0.073 0.241 4 932362 1848 1991 144 1.000 0.078 0.686 4.958 0.073 0.200 5 932371 1800 1991 192 1.000 0.077 0.708 4.249 0.068 0.283 6 932372 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.079 0.797 5.284 0.081 0.134 7 932381 1736 1991 256 1.000 0.096 1.059 3.989 0.065 0.550 8 932382 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.076 1.176 6.231 0.067 0.308 9 932391 1674 1991 318 1.000 0.105 0.706 3.426 0.065 0.657 10 932393 1650 1991 342 1.000 0.084 0.701 3.901 0.076 0.258 11 932401 1709 1991 283 1.000 0.083 0.588 4.029 0.080 0.166 12 932402 1707 1991 285 1.000 0.101 1.023 6.478 0.099 0.060 13 932411 1847 1991 145 1.000 0.104 2.246 13.176 0.081 0.431 14 932412 1821 1991 171 1.000 0.090 0.547 3.544 0.068 0.468 15 932421 1770 1991 222 1.000 0.089 0.096 2.925 0.065 0.557 16 932422 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.081 0.436 3.640 0.069 0.362 17 932431 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.064 0.539 3.734 0.062 0.116 18 932432 1850 1991 142 1.000 0.073 0.594 3.234 0.064 0.290 19 932441 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.068 0.140 3.356 0.062 0.203 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.085 0.294 4.578 0.083 0.091 21 932451 1828 1991 164 1.000 0.092 0.607 7.361 0.081 0.330 22 932452 1753 1991 239 1.000 0.087 0.301 3.066 0.081 0.266 23 932461 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.075 0.070 3.340 0.070 0.230 24 932462 1758 1991 234 1.000 0.091 0.528 4.549 0.079 0.367 25 932471 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.070 -0.242 3.557 0.060 0.412 26 932472 1783 1991 209 1.000 0.087 0.817 6.454 0.077 0.251 27 932481 1787 1991 205 1.000 0.072 0.134 3.216 0.069 0.230 28 932482 1776 1991 216 1.000 0.096 0.721 4.601 0.083 0.309 29 932491 1759 1991 233 1.000 0.097 1.789 10.579 0.080 0.294 30 932492 1774 1991 218 1.000 0.085 0.886 5.113 0.075 0.307 31 932502 1818 1991 174 1.000 0.078 0.101 3.418 0.074 0.246 32 932503 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.076 -0.168 3.301 0.074 0.218 33 932511 1756 1991 236 1.000 0.091 1.260 8.437 0.077 0.369 34 932513 1722 1991 270 1.000 0.082 0.493 4.734 0.084 0.143 35 932521 1737 1991 255 1.000 0.107 0.857 4.523 0.094 0.157 36 932522 1746 1991 246 1.000 0.117 0.932 7.211 0.103 0.160 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.000 0.086 0.629 4.858 0.076 0.285 STANDARD DEVIATION 56 0.000 0.012 0.496 2.220 0.010 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.085 0.600 4.083 0.075 0.262 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 88 0.000 0.017 0.540 1.776 0.012 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 119 1.000 0.064 -0.242 2.801 0.060 0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.077 0.298 3.422 0.068 0.201 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 242 1.000 0.094 0.837 5.199 0.081 0.365 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.117 2.246 13.176 0.103 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 630 0.263 0.112 0.004 -0.002 3.339 -0.059 0.704 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.059 SERIES 932351 AND 932412 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.704 SERIES 932401 AND 932402 283 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 6. 10. 78. 171. 231. 351. 595. 630. 630. RBAR 0.670 0.516 0.337 0.370 0.328 0.389 0.373 0.309 0.271 0.286 SDEV 0.000 0.139 0.195 0.171 0.175 0.152 0.180 0.170 0.188 0.197 SERR 0.000 0.057 0.062 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.872 0.876 0.859 0.914 0.916 0.944 0.951 0.941 0.930 0.935 NSS 3.3 6.6 12.0 18.1 22.5 26.7 32.5 35.7 36.0 36.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 630. RBAR 0.258 SDEV 0.180 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.926 NSS 36.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.996 0.060 0.525 3.207 0.061 0.162 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.159 0.074 -0.015 129 213 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.50 1.00 1.06 1.56 29.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.161 0.091 0.064 0.072 0.059 0.014 0.006 -0.028 -0.054 0.000 PACF 0.161 0.066 0.040 0.052 0.035 -0.011 -0.007 -0.037 -0.052 0.019 95% C.L. 0.108 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.163 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.996 0.060 0.525 3.207 0.061 0.162 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.161 0.091 0.064 0.072 0.059 0.014 0.006 -0.028 -0.054 0.000 PACF 0.161 0.066 0.040 0.052 0.035 -0.011 -0.007 -0.037 -0.052 0.019 95% C.L. 0.108 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.163 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.47 MINUTES