RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS072W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS072W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 932 1 Nyuchpas WIDTH_RING PCAB - 932 2 Russia Norway spruce 155 6042-5123 1650 1991 - 932 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 932401 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 54 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 932402 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 55 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 1.584 0.743 0.244 2.700 0.219 0.809 2 932352 1873 1991 119 1.035 0.536 0.940 3.174 0.192 0.859 3 932361 1844 1991 148 1.482 0.799 0.779 4.226 0.224 0.852 4 932362 1848 1991 144 1.330 0.883 1.231 3.763 0.221 0.889 5 932371 1800 1991 192 0.357 0.191 1.028 3.295 0.209 0.894 6 932372 1859 1991 133 0.311 0.185 0.774 2.623 0.217 0.913 7 932381 1736 1991 256 0.404 0.185 0.859 3.365 0.223 0.759 8 932382 1741 1991 251 0.315 0.152 0.759 3.062 0.220 0.825 9 932391 1674 1991 318 0.365 0.178 1.201 4.840 0.224 0.769 10 932393 1650 1991 342 0.209 0.089 1.325 5.363 0.230 0.747 11 932401 1709 1991 283 0.260 0.176 2.035 7.782 0.317 0.775 12 932402 1707 1991 285 0.268 0.189 2.295 9.280 0.311 0.822 13 932411 1847 1991 145 0.393 0.271 2.478 10.580 0.234 0.887 14 932412 1821 1991 171 0.554 0.389 0.862 2.866 0.222 0.877 15 932421 1770 1991 222 0.395 0.259 1.626 6.563 0.220 0.884 16 932422 1832 1991 160 0.567 0.343 1.061 3.873 0.201 0.862 17 932431 1856 1991 136 0.623 0.194 1.315 5.979 0.207 0.582 18 932432 1850 1991 142 0.495 0.224 1.143 4.255 0.241 0.683 19 932441 1773 1991 219 0.401 0.140 0.877 4.497 0.182 0.760 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 0.398 0.165 0.414 3.010 0.204 0.798 21 932451 1828 1991 164 0.615 0.266 1.200 4.908 0.248 0.611 22 932452 1753 1991 239 0.322 0.190 1.236 4.226 0.207 0.905 23 932461 1856 1991 136 0.744 0.320 0.862 3.230 0.249 0.746 24 932462 1758 1991 234 0.402 0.343 1.849 6.138 0.231 0.866 25 932471 1793 1991 199 0.653 0.278 0.938 3.941 0.232 0.747 26 932472 1783 1991 209 0.536 0.260 0.572 2.836 0.230 0.805 27 932481 1787 1991 205 0.480 0.221 1.028 4.156 0.230 0.801 28 932482 1776 1991 216 0.426 0.176 0.592 3.161 0.233 0.783 29 932491 1759 1991 233 0.442 0.294 1.515 5.994 0.284 0.758 30 932492 1774 1991 218 0.388 0.217 1.460 5.858 0.262 0.732 31 932502 1818 1991 174 0.598 0.253 0.693 3.173 0.240 0.738 32 932503 1827 1991 165 0.509 0.199 0.412 2.427 0.210 0.798 33 932511 1756 1991 236 0.512 0.291 1.020 3.999 0.220 0.844 34 932513 1722 1991 270 0.324 0.139 0.724 2.999 0.210 0.780 35 932521 1737 1991 255 0.497 0.404 2.536 11.829 0.263 0.883 36 932522 1746 1991 246 0.539 0.513 2.304 8.421 0.276 0.916 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 36 FROM 1650 TO 1991 342 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 203 0.548 0.296 1.172 4.789 0.232 0.804 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.321 0.185 0.585 2.302 0.029 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 0.461 0.238 1.028 4.077 0.224 0.803 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.206 0.147 0.616 2.751 0.027 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.209 0.089 0.244 2.427 0.182 0.582 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.376 0.185 0.776 3.167 0.213 0.759 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 235 0.582 0.331 1.393 5.918 0.240 0.871 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.584 0.883 2.536 11.829 0.317 0.916 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 630 0.250 0.265 0.011 -0.198 2.610 -0.551 0.964 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.551 SERIES 932361 AND 932492 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.964 SERIES 932401 AND 932402 283 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 6. 10. 78. 171. 231. 351. 595. 630. 630. RBAR 0.858 0.552 0.239 0.175 0.410 0.400 0.258 0.265 0.326 0.213 SDEV 0.000 0.227 0.381 0.270 0.279 0.264 0.303 0.289 0.321 0.303 SERR 0.000 0.093 0.121 0.031 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.953 0.891 0.790 0.793 0.940 0.947 0.919 0.928 0.946 0.907 NSS 3.3 6.6 12.0 18.1 22.5 26.7 32.5 35.7 36.0 36.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 630. RBAR 0.311 SDEV 0.347 SERR 0.014 EPS 0.942 NSS 36.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.370 0.143 0.528 3.038 0.174 0.837 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.744 0.598 -0.048 197 145 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.16 2.64 1.01 1.29 3.93 190.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 210. 88. 119. 154. 242. 342. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.834 0.737 0.674 0.641 0.618 0.572 0.517 0.473 0.464 0.430 PACF 0.834 0.133 0.100 0.118 0.083 -0.030 -0.040 -0.008 0.091 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.108 0.167 0.202 0.226 0.247 0.264 0.278 0.289 0.298 0.307 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.716 0.686 0.063 0.000 0.062 0.086 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 932351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00225049 1.43365347 2 932352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032681 1.05490243 3 932361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01200074 2.37560940 4 932362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01659384 2.53319240 5 932371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070448 0.42464933 6 932372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00380475 0.56551945 7 932381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043979 0.34727573 8 932382 1 0.23778212 0.12327150 0.00000000 0.30740052 9 932391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090911 0.22034323 10 932393 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043675 0.28367496 11 932401 1 1.03171968 0.17859639 0.00000000 0.23333360 12 932402 1 1.11288810 0.15458106 0.00000000 0.24202608 13 932411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00270867 0.59076726 14 932412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00499405 0.12413760 15 932421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029661 0.42856753 16 932422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00487545 0.95947409 17 932431 1 1.13517058 0.31436312 0.00000000 0.59997714 18 932432 1 0.66461283 0.04186147 0.00000000 0.38608882 19 932441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00085286 0.49449918 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 932443 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105263 0.51040685 21 932451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00077974 0.55073243 22 932452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143285 0.49365774 23 932461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00146303 0.64426798 24 932462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083717 0.50041926 25 932471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00169633 0.82284909 26 932472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00318935 0.87047982 27 932481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080998 0.56391537 28 932482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006414 0.43269938 29 932491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00235283 0.16682181 30 932492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00210642 0.15691583 31 932502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029257 0.62347353 32 932503 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133663 0.62027347 33 932511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100848 0.39265597 34 932513 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074442 0.22361283 35 932521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080967 0.39306808 36 932522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050647 0.47606936 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.465 0.232 2.785 0.217 0.799 2 932352 1873 1991 119 1.000 0.517 0.923 3.146 0.190 0.853 3 932361 1844 1991 148 0.980 0.375 0.299 4.194 0.221 0.726 4 932362 1848 1991 144 1.044 0.391 0.762 3.530 0.219 0.675 5 932371 1800 1991 192 0.997 0.509 0.949 3.224 0.209 0.880 6 932372 1859 1991 133 1.063 0.604 4.318 29.948 0.217 0.526 7 932381 1736 1991 256 1.000 0.446 0.782 3.238 0.223 0.745 8 932382 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.482 0.853 3.332 0.219 0.822 9 932391 1674 1991 318 1.001 0.425 0.971 3.707 0.223 0.715 10 932393 1650 1991 342 1.000 0.344 0.662 3.566 0.229 0.631 11 932401 1709 1991 283 1.000 0.556 2.138 10.204 0.293 0.749 12 932402 1707 1991 285 1.000 0.540 2.152 10.739 0.287 0.760 13 932411 1847 1991 145 1.009 0.585 1.842 7.413 0.233 0.843 14 932412 1821 1991 171 0.983 0.493 0.975 4.528 0.220 0.833 15 932421 1770 1991 222 1.000 0.643 1.545 6.304 0.219 0.877 16 932422 1832 1991 160 1.045 0.591 1.704 6.447 0.200 0.810 17 932431 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.269 0.688 4.049 0.205 0.550 18 932432 1850 1991 142 0.999 0.349 1.184 4.816 0.240 0.575 19 932441 1773 1991 219 0.998 0.321 0.929 4.267 0.181 0.717 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 0.996 0.390 0.587 3.158 0.203 0.787 21 932451 1828 1991 164 1.000 0.427 1.055 4.034 0.247 0.620 22 932452 1753 1991 239 0.995 0.479 1.149 3.998 0.206 0.857 23 932461 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.413 0.704 3.061 0.247 0.710 24 932462 1758 1991 234 1.000 0.903 2.287 8.365 0.231 0.839 25 932471 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.397 0.718 3.070 0.231 0.720 26 932472 1783 1991 209 0.994 0.317 0.590 3.021 0.229 0.553 27 932481 1787 1991 205 0.998 0.434 0.819 3.690 0.229 0.772 28 932482 1776 1991 216 1.000 0.414 0.595 3.166 0.232 0.779 29 932491 1759 1991 233 1.013 0.663 3.283 19.953 0.283 0.600 30 932492 1774 1991 218 1.020 0.521 2.889 17.517 0.261 0.657 31 932502 1818 1991 174 1.000 0.426 0.730 3.188 0.238 0.737 32 932503 1827 1991 165 0.999 0.374 0.494 2.407 0.208 0.781 33 932511 1756 1991 236 0.995 0.540 0.953 3.930 0.219 0.827 34 932513 1722 1991 270 0.997 0.384 0.876 3.609 0.209 0.742 35 932521 1737 1991 255 0.995 0.791 2.533 11.616 0.262 0.877 36 932522 1746 1991 246 0.998 0.950 2.358 8.695 0.274 0.913 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.003 0.492 1.292 6.275 0.229 0.746 STANDARD DEVIATION 56 0.016 0.153 0.914 5.715 0.026 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.456 0.939 3.964 0.223 0.755 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 88 0.003 0.157 1.062 3.724 0.026 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.980 0.269 0.232 2.407 0.181 0.526 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.997 0.391 0.711 3.206 0.213 0.692 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 242 1.000 0.548 1.773 6.930 0.239 0.830 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.063 0.950 4.318 29.948 0.293 0.913 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 932351 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 932352 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 932361 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 932362 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 932371 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 932372 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 932381 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 932382 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 932391 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 932393 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 932401 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 932402 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 932411 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 932412 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 932421 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 932422 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 932431 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 932432 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 932441 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 932443 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 932451 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 932452 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 932461 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 932462 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 932471 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 932472 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 932481 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 932482 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 932491 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 932492 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 932502 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 932503 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 932511 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 932513 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 932521 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 932522 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 0.969 0.356 0.234 3.518 0.216 0.703 2 932352 1873 1991 119 0.964 0.330 1.123 4.330 0.189 0.706 3 932361 1844 1991 148 0.985 0.332 0.386 3.925 0.218 0.645 4 932362 1848 1991 144 0.995 0.308 0.274 3.009 0.218 0.576 5 932371 1800 1991 192 0.993 0.344 0.415 2.761 0.208 0.726 6 932372 1859 1991 133 0.989 0.315 1.091 6.438 0.215 0.536 7 932381 1736 1991 256 0.992 0.404 0.565 2.886 0.222 0.713 8 932382 1741 1991 251 0.981 0.405 0.599 3.232 0.219 0.778 9 932391 1674 1991 318 0.992 0.379 0.966 4.056 0.223 0.663 10 932393 1650 1991 342 0.999 0.337 0.565 3.220 0.229 0.625 11 932401 1709 1991 283 0.992 0.457 1.549 7.083 0.293 0.620 12 932402 1707 1991 285 0.992 0.454 1.589 7.327 0.288 0.658 13 932411 1847 1991 145 0.975 0.458 1.724 6.548 0.232 0.791 14 932412 1821 1991 171 0.987 0.421 0.483 3.737 0.219 0.789 15 932421 1770 1991 222 0.968 0.503 0.891 3.649 0.219 0.821 16 932422 1832 1991 160 0.977 0.348 0.846 4.245 0.199 0.660 17 932431 1856 1991 136 0.998 0.242 0.336 3.250 0.204 0.456 18 932432 1850 1991 142 0.997 0.314 1.557 8.591 0.240 0.479 19 932441 1773 1991 219 0.998 0.284 0.650 3.621 0.181 0.653 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 0.993 0.330 0.425 3.069 0.203 0.704 21 932451 1828 1991 164 0.983 0.314 0.630 3.668 0.247 0.426 22 932452 1753 1991 239 0.977 0.356 0.726 3.014 0.206 0.766 23 932461 1856 1991 136 0.992 0.373 0.634 3.215 0.246 0.639 24 932462 1758 1991 234 0.945 0.654 2.634 11.945 0.231 0.784 25 932471 1793 1991 199 0.994 0.367 0.676 3.389 0.231 0.680 26 932472 1783 1991 209 0.995 0.282 0.528 3.247 0.229 0.455 27 932481 1787 1991 205 0.989 0.318 0.647 3.227 0.229 0.593 28 932482 1776 1991 216 0.996 0.329 0.404 2.750 0.232 0.595 29 932491 1759 1991 233 0.987 0.579 3.637 25.507 0.283 0.581 30 932492 1774 1991 218 0.997 0.429 1.946 11.121 0.261 0.602 31 932502 1818 1991 174 0.991 0.317 0.760 3.618 0.237 0.541 32 932503 1827 1991 165 0.986 0.293 0.349 2.537 0.208 0.628 33 932511 1756 1991 236 0.986 0.454 1.208 4.640 0.219 0.757 34 932513 1722 1991 270 0.992 0.327 0.649 3.096 0.209 0.643 35 932521 1737 1991 255 0.985 0.489 1.545 6.557 0.262 0.717 36 932522 1746 1991 246 1.037 0.684 2.720 13.729 0.276 0.649 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 0.988 0.386 0.999 5.382 0.229 0.649 STANDARD DEVIATION 56 0.014 0.100 0.768 4.402 0.027 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 0.991 0.352 0.663 3.635 0.223 0.651 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 88 0.010 0.124 0.871 3.276 0.027 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 119 0.945 0.242 0.234 2.537 0.181 0.426 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.984 0.318 0.506 3.217 0.212 0.594 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 242 0.994 0.441 1.377 6.493 0.239 0.715 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.037 0.684 3.637 25.507 0.293 0.821 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 630 0.277 0.170 0.007 -0.104 3.305 -0.304 0.930 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.304 SERIES 932361 AND 932462 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.930 SERIES 932401 AND 932402 283 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 6. 10. 78. 171. 231. 351. 595. 630. 630. RBAR 0.849 0.536 0.250 0.188 0.365 0.364 0.304 0.302 0.335 0.281 SDEV 0.000 0.172 0.378 0.234 0.258 0.271 0.247 0.242 0.233 0.273 SERR 0.000 0.070 0.120 0.026 0.020 0.018 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.950 0.885 0.800 0.807 0.928 0.939 0.934 0.939 0.948 0.934 NSS 3.3 6.6 12.0 18.1 22.5 26.7 32.5 35.7 36.0 36.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 630. RBAR 0.376 SDEV 0.259 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.956 NSS 36.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.975 0.267 0.354 2.861 0.179 0.642 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.237 0.114 0.149 130 212 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.83 1.00 1.11 1.94 41.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.640 0.452 0.341 0.279 0.223 0.156 0.078 0.033 0.032 0.002 PACF 0.640 0.072 0.045 0.048 0.011 -0.032 -0.062 -0.016 0.033 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.108 0.146 0.161 0.170 0.175 0.178 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.421 0.647 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.581 0.408 0.325 0.300 0.216 0.163 0.098 0.044 0.019 -0.021 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.581 2 0.520 0.105 3 0.512 0.064 0.079 4 0.504 0.058 0.030 0.095 5 0.508 0.059 0.032 0.112 -0.034 6 0.508 0.059 0.032 0.112 -0.033 -0.002 7 0.508 0.058 0.037 0.114 -0.030 0.021 -0.046 8 0.505 0.059 0.036 0.119 -0.028 0.024 -0.023 -0.045 9 0.505 0.058 0.036 0.119 -0.027 0.024 -0.022 -0.042 -0.007 10 0.505 0.057 0.035 0.120 -0.029 0.029 -0.021 -0.039 0.016 -0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3162.92 3023.85 3022.05 3021.91 3020.79 3022.40 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3024.40 3025.68 3026.97 3028.96 3030.26 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.504 0.058 0.030 0.095 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 35.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 155.11 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.504 0.312 0.217 0.238 0.190 0.146 0.113 0.094 0.076 0.0612 0.049 0.039 0.032 0.026 0.021 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.0070 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0008 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 932351 4 0.508 0.688 -0.044 0.101 0.000 2 932352 4 0.514 0.729 -0.068 0.128 -0.084 3 932361 4 0.452 0.680 -0.004 0.009 -0.060 4 932362 4 0.363 0.585 0.057 -0.047 -0.092 5 932371 4 0.574 0.670 0.107 -0.099 0.123 6 932372 4 0.378 0.467 0.188 -0.005 0.042 7 932381 4 0.519 0.718 -0.020 -0.004 0.045 8 932382 4 0.658 0.601 0.258 -0.186 0.189 9 932391 4 0.458 0.567 0.044 0.121 0.013 10 932393 4 0.420 0.536 0.101 -0.012 0.104 11 932401 4 0.412 0.624 0.017 0.010 -0.005 12 932402 4 0.452 0.683 0.018 -0.083 0.042 13 932411 4 0.639 0.788 -0.021 0.104 -0.082 14 932412 4 0.639 0.897 -0.147 -0.002 0.029 15 932421 4 0.694 0.819 -0.104 0.060 0.089 16 932422 4 0.461 0.628 0.017 0.014 0.054 17 932431 4 0.217 0.440 0.031 0.049 -0.063 18 932432 4 0.249 0.497 0.007 -0.112 -0.022 19 932441 4 0.456 0.612 0.119 -0.181 0.174 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 932443 4 0.523 0.609 0.230 -0.145 0.049 21 932451 4 0.213 0.392 0.000 0.104 0.083 22 932452 4 0.599 0.718 0.026 0.115 -0.078 23 932461 4 0.438 0.557 0.083 0.088 -0.011 24 932462 4 0.639 0.936 -0.284 0.252 -0.162 25 932471 4 0.477 0.603 0.018 0.072 0.066 26 932472 4 0.220 0.439 0.007 0.034 0.052 27 932481 4 0.374 0.682 -0.169 0.096 -0.050 28 932482 4 0.392 0.521 0.109 -0.021 0.080 29 932491 4 0.354 0.669 -0.165 0.049 -0.011 30 932492 4 0.379 0.666 -0.132 0.027 0.061 31 932502 4 0.298 0.547 -0.031 0.043 -0.009 32 932503 4 0.415 0.584 0.004 0.049 0.075 33 932511 4 0.617 0.671 0.106 0.109 -0.084 34 932513 4 0.459 0.476 0.110 0.189 -0.009 35 932521 4 0.553 0.642 0.018 0.028 0.113 36 932522 4 0.564 0.480 0.156 0.148 0.044 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.460 0.623 0.018 0.031 0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.129 0.123 0.113 0.098 0.078 MEDIAN 4 0.457 0.618 0.017 0.038 0.036 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.180 0.141 0.129 0.111 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.213 0.392 -0.284 -0.186 -0.162 LOWER HINGE 4 0.378 0.542 -0.026 -0.009 -0.036 UPPER HINGE 4 0.559 0.683 0.103 0.103 0.070 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.694 0.936 0.258 0.252 0.189 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 932351 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.250 0.537 3.370 0.267 0.004 2 932352 1873 1991 119 1.000 0.229 0.864 5.002 0.230 -0.004 3 932361 1844 1991 148 1.000 0.244 0.448 3.637 0.277 -0.017 4 932362 1848 1991 144 1.000 0.245 0.513 3.616 0.263 -0.012 5 932371 1800 1991 192 1.000 0.222 0.022 3.433 0.254 -0.006 6 932372 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.249 1.605 11.459 0.249 0.023 7 932381 1736 1991 256 1.000 0.280 1.021 4.087 0.290 0.005 8 932382 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.237 0.511 3.617 0.249 0.010 9 932391 1674 1991 318 1.000 0.279 1.278 6.679 0.287 0.000 10 932393 1650 1991 342 1.000 0.255 0.265 3.914 0.284 -0.006 11 932401 1709 1991 283 1.000 0.352 1.157 6.361 0.364 0.017 12 932402 1707 1991 285 1.000 0.336 0.853 5.105 0.374 0.014 13 932411 1847 1991 145 1.000 0.276 1.115 6.068 0.298 -0.013 14 932412 1821 1991 171 1.000 0.254 0.475 4.205 0.271 0.005 15 932421 1770 1991 222 1.000 0.277 0.761 5.685 0.294 -0.002 16 932422 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.258 1.054 7.700 0.260 0.004 17 932431 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.215 0.215 3.324 0.245 -0.005 18 932432 1850 1991 142 1.000 0.273 1.457 9.677 0.297 -0.001 19 932441 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.209 0.661 4.047 0.227 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 932443 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.228 0.433 4.427 0.250 0.004 21 932451 1828 1991 164 1.000 0.278 0.781 4.092 0.285 -0.005 22 932452 1753 1991 239 1.000 0.226 0.174 3.056 0.258 -0.004 23 932461 1856 1991 136 1.000 0.279 0.435 2.879 0.305 -0.014 24 932462 1758 1991 234 1.001 0.390 3.674 29.219 0.327 0.002 25 932471 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.266 0.492 3.788 0.284 0.002 26 932472 1783 1991 209 1.000 0.250 0.334 3.471 0.284 0.001 27 932481 1787 1991 205 1.000 0.252 0.171 3.868 0.292 0.005 28 932482 1776 1991 216 1.000 0.259 0.497 3.621 0.282 0.009 29 932491 1759 1991 233 1.004 0.454 3.836 28.139 0.374 0.052 30 932492 1774 1991 218 1.000 0.338 1.632 8.560 0.337 0.006 31 932502 1818 1991 174 1.000 0.266 0.840 3.965 0.284 -0.001 32 932503 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.223 0.150 3.104 0.256 -0.008 33 932511 1756 1991 236 1.000 0.277 0.728 4.323 0.294 -0.027 34 932513 1722 1991 270 1.000 0.241 0.644 3.695 0.257 0.000 35 932521 1737 1991 255 1.002 0.325 1.060 8.041 0.328 0.053 36 932522 1746 1991 246 1.004 0.444 2.397 13.093 0.335 0.145 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 1.000 0.276 0.919 6.454 0.286 0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 56 0.001 0.058 0.855 5.978 0.037 0.028 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 210 1.000 0.258 0.694 4.090 0.284 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 88 0.000 0.037 0.646 2.901 0.040 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 119 1.000 0.209 0.022 2.879 0.227 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.243 0.442 3.619 0.257 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 242 1.000 0.279 1.088 6.520 0.297 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.004 0.454 3.836 29.219 0.374 0.145 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 630 0.345 0.118 0.005 0.250 3.704 0.004 0.899 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.004 SERIES 932351 AND 932462 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.899 SERIES 932401 AND 932402 283 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 6. 10. 78. 171. 231. 351. 595. 630. 630. RBAR 0.750 0.452 0.291 0.259 0.357 0.394 0.367 0.391 0.415 0.313 SDEV 0.000 0.199 0.260 0.176 0.183 0.162 0.160 0.160 0.138 0.169 SERR 0.000 0.081 0.082 0.020 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.909 0.846 0.831 0.863 0.926 0.946 0.950 0.958 0.962 0.942 NSS 3.3 6.6 12.0 18.1 22.5 26.7 32.5 35.7 36.0 36.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 630. RBAR 0.359 SDEV 0.173 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.953 NSS 36.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.986 0.189 0.140 3.745 0.210 -0.018 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.236 0.110 0.069 128 214 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.72 1.00 1.09 1.81 13.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.018 0.009 -0.002 -0.013 0.024 0.017 -0.052 -0.026 0.044 0.028 PACF -0.018 0.009 -0.001 -0.013 0.024 0.018 -0.052 -0.028 0.045 0.030 95% C.L. 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.025 0.018 -0.054 -0.028 0.046 0.029 PACF 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.025 0.018 -0.054 -0.028 0.046 0.029 95% C.L. 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.001 0.000 0.001 -0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1650 1991 342 0.986 0.235 0.430 3.106 0.169 0.580 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.579 0.404 0.318 0.293 0.236 0.168 0.087 0.063 0.075 0.036 PACF 0.579 0.104 0.074 0.093 0.006 -0.025 -0.065 0.001 0.042 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.108 0.140 0.153 0.160 0.167 0.170 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.352 0.522 0.106 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.81 MINUTES