RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 971 1 Krasnovishersk WIDTH_EARLY PCOB - 971 2 Russia Black Spuce 140 6023-5707 1680 1991 - 971 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 971192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 971252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1794 1794 / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 971262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 971271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1854 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 971321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 971322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.419 0.257 1.704 6.403 0.295 0.786 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.452 0.213 0.652 3.444 0.249 0.750 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.532 0.353 0.569 3.263 0.264 0.823 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.422 0.254 1.090 4.248 0.255 0.834 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.701 0.338 0.825 4.065 0.279 0.691 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.552 0.419 1.375 4.589 0.303 0.843 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.382 0.293 0.911 3.257 0.281 0.878 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.373 0.309 1.224 4.224 0.273 0.886 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.890 0.422 0.428 2.563 0.207 0.857 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.810 0.358 1.114 4.961 0.201 0.797 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.574 0.270 1.025 3.869 0.213 0.847 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.559 0.260 0.989 3.629 0.201 0.855 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.460 0.293 0.893 3.141 0.264 0.878 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.478 0.272 0.626 2.989 0.267 0.840 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.495 0.315 1.763 6.283 0.217 0.896 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.495 0.364 2.106 7.420 0.233 0.872 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.483 0.354 1.557 6.494 0.262 0.915 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.554 0.373 1.107 4.341 0.278 0.853 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.636 0.303 0.286 3.430 0.258 0.681 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 0.825 0.366 1.494 5.990 0.219 0.758 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.613 0.359 1.157 4.293 0.232 0.861 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.654 0.338 0.719 3.363 0.243 0.820 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.663 0.589 1.487 6.131 0.326 0.917 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.543 0.553 2.116 7.768 0.315 0.910 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.895 0.536 0.276 2.257 0.228 0.866 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.985 0.595 0.557 2.644 0.196 0.890 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.156 0.542 1.031 5.075 0.263 0.716 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.229 0.579 -0.020 2.316 0.221 0.828 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.420 0.253 1.177 4.878 0.232 0.864 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.379 0.330 2.987 19.881 0.259 0.837 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.399 0.178 1.216 4.564 0.238 0.670 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.427 0.235 2.407 14.916 0.218 0.735 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1680 TO 1991 312 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.608 0.359 1.151 5.209 0.250 0.827 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.224 0.115 0.648 3.564 0.034 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.547 0.338 1.098 4.271 0.252 0.845 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.242 0.125 0.805 2.748 0.050 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.373 0.178 -0.020 2.257 0.196 0.670 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.439 0.271 0.685 3.313 0.220 0.792 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 0.682 0.396 1.490 6.061 0.270 0.875 MAXIMUM VALUE 310 1.229 0.595 2.987 19.881 0.326 0.917 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.282 0.339 0.015 -0.708 3.211 -0.793 0.958 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.793 SERIES 971291 AND 971301 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.958 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.317 0.428 0.326 0.363 0.629 0.341 0.242 0.230 0.341 0.426 SDEV 0.389 0.251 0.257 0.243 0.171 0.278 0.398 0.308 0.281 0.272 SERR 0.159 0.065 0.035 0.018 0.011 0.015 0.019 0.014 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.758 0.901 0.902 0.931 0.978 0.939 0.910 0.905 0.943 0.959 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.449 0.228 0.613 2.818 0.184 0.893 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.883 0.557 -0.021 139 173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.05 1.00 1.15 2.19 7.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 211. 74. 118. 170. 244. 312. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.890 0.833 0.801 0.763 0.749 0.717 0.707 0.701 0.686 0.673 PACF 0.890 0.195 0.154 0.028 0.132 -0.027 0.110 0.064 0.025 0.015 95% C.L. 0.113 0.182 0.226 0.260 0.287 0.311 0.331 0.350 0.368 0.384 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.813 0.690 0.068 0.171 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103989 0.31098214 2 971182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00190702 0.24897791 3 971191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00450654 0.02724034 4 971192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00241474 0.11952438 5 971201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00161127 0.57752699 6 971202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165100 0.39772800 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00422256 0.47588104 10 971222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00236543 0.60094351 11 971231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086043 0.66134328 12 971232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035792 0.51795989 13 971241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027626 0.49225006 14 971242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100463 0.36192140 15 971251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116643 0.62599975 16 971252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00142320 0.64446110 17 971261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191520 0.24918477 18 971262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00299178 0.18372245 19 971271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00278071 0.40864250 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00549668 0.45170704 21 971281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000046 0.61256987 22 971282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053029 0.71023101 23 971291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00768755 1.30091500 24 971292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00273949 0.81259495 25 971301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01375898 0.07617123 26 971302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01485025 0.10149501 27 971311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00937343 0.54692829 28 971312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00991023 0.52531004 29 971321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192429 0.13361403 30 971322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00218185 0.03734918 31 971331 1 0.37100458 0.06548634 0.00000000 0.37978610 32 971332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012045 0.40933120 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.997 0.602 1.854 6.953 0.293 0.775 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.994 0.422 1.171 4.430 0.248 0.639 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.988 0.420 1.503 7.810 0.264 0.545 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.043 0.592 2.413 10.743 0.256 0.688 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.998 0.498 1.206 4.849 0.278 0.701 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.989 0.770 1.607 5.217 0.302 0.846 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.974 0.401 0.727 3.050 0.280 0.594 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.966 0.436 0.895 3.487 0.273 0.682 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.992 0.398 0.489 2.892 0.205 0.772 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.999 0.407 0.751 3.733 0.200 0.751 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.466 1.207 4.745 0.212 0.839 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.466 1.009 3.649 0.200 0.852 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.628 0.846 3.086 0.263 0.870 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.996 0.554 0.591 2.803 0.266 0.830 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.997 0.591 1.694 6.350 0.217 0.886 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.992 0.668 2.000 7.180 0.239 0.876 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.975 0.708 2.101 8.910 0.261 0.904 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.978 0.563 2.226 10.360 0.278 0.768 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.993 0.479 0.950 5.272 0.257 0.659 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.009 0.387 1.956 7.355 0.219 0.618 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.585 1.158 4.293 0.231 0.857 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.999 0.505 0.666 3.383 0.242 0.811 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.953 0.571 0.953 4.262 0.323 0.768 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.960 0.878 1.982 7.003 0.313 0.896 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.969 0.268 0.897 3.933 0.225 0.361 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.985 0.269 0.695 3.731 0.193 0.496 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.001 0.379 1.055 4.347 0.259 0.435 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.982 0.387 0.801 3.586 0.218 0.713 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.029 0.546 2.145 11.230 0.234 0.729 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.266 1.213 2.181 7.783 0.257 0.890 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.423 1.053 4.120 0.237 0.680 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.556 2.615 16.917 0.217 0.725 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.001 0.532 1.356 5.858 0.249 0.733 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.052 0.182 0.614 3.123 0.034 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.996 0.501 1.164 4.588 0.252 0.760 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.016 0.178 1.099 3.577 0.051 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.953 0.268 0.489 2.803 0.193 0.361 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.984 0.413 0.870 3.690 0.218 0.670 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.592 1.969 7.267 0.269 0.849 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.266 1.213 2.615 16.917 0.323 0.904 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 971182 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 971191 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 971192 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 971201 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 971202 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.98882926 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 971222 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 971231 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 971232 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 971241 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 971242 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 971251 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 971252 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 971261 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 971262 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 971271 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 971281 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 971282 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.95962298 25 971301 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 971302 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 971311 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 971312 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 971321 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 971322 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 971331 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 971332 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.987 0.508 1.482 5.445 0.293 0.636 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.991 0.384 1.356 6.110 0.248 0.523 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.987 0.371 1.440 7.380 0.264 0.469 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.984 0.416 1.188 4.290 0.255 0.645 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.980 0.322 0.777 3.921 0.278 0.397 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.778 1.607 5.217 0.302 0.846 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.993 0.386 0.796 3.425 0.280 0.546 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.995 0.425 0.763 3.180 0.273 0.640 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.991 0.349 0.464 2.551 0.205 0.715 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.986 0.351 0.800 3.739 0.199 0.673 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.976 0.329 0.915 4.565 0.212 0.708 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.982 0.335 0.965 3.986 0.200 0.738 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.983 0.471 2.060 11.883 0.262 0.598 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.971 0.415 0.695 3.511 0.265 0.663 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.971 0.444 1.290 4.986 0.216 0.793 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.992 0.499 2.975 18.084 0.239 0.542 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.968 0.500 1.583 6.286 0.261 0.770 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.980 0.444 1.517 6.833 0.278 0.628 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.972 0.378 1.039 4.564 0.255 0.545 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 0.995 0.313 1.813 7.596 0.218 0.482 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.001 0.457 3.302 24.945 0.232 0.581 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.979 0.353 0.820 3.499 0.243 0.625 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.952 0.432 1.049 4.806 0.324 0.586 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.915 1.982 7.002 0.313 0.896 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.998 0.248 1.218 5.479 0.226 0.182 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.996 0.249 1.024 5.084 0.192 0.394 27 971311 1863 1991 129 0.998 0.367 1.003 4.316 0.259 0.413 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.993 0.316 0.702 3.570 0.217 0.555 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.977 0.355 1.294 6.061 0.234 0.581 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.947 0.417 1.140 6.021 0.258 0.681 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.983 0.356 0.943 3.742 0.237 0.597 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.976 0.451 2.105 12.320 0.217 0.703 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.984 0.417 1.316 6.387 0.249 0.605 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.013 0.132 0.635 4.610 0.034 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.985 0.385 1.164 5.035 0.251 0.612 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.017 0.098 0.683 2.728 0.051 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.947 0.248 0.464 2.551 0.192 0.182 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.977 0.350 0.867 3.832 0.218 0.544 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 0.994 0.448 1.550 6.560 0.269 0.692 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.001 0.915 3.302 24.945 0.324 0.896 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.292 0.145 0.007 0.257 3.640 -0.081 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.081 SERIES 971251 AND 971312 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 971231 AND 971232 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.181 0.456 0.264 0.228 0.406 0.303 0.292 0.263 0.379 0.416 SDEV 0.465 0.202 0.236 0.240 0.290 0.250 0.272 0.251 0.224 0.214 SERR 0.190 0.052 0.032 0.017 0.018 0.013 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.599 0.910 0.872 0.875 0.948 0.928 0.929 0.920 0.951 0.957 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.952 0.251 0.578 3.271 0.189 0.598 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.447 0.265 0.056 123 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.04 1.01 1.11 2.15 14.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.596 0.427 0.368 0.265 0.205 0.131 0.132 0.165 0.120 0.118 PACF 0.596 0.111 0.118 -0.025 0.012 -0.048 0.066 0.089 -0.030 0.028 95% C.L. 0.113 0.148 0.163 0.173 0.179 0.182 0.183 0.184 0.186 0.187 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.373 0.516 0.050 0.118 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.673 0.526 0.487 0.409 0.361 0.285 0.301 0.315 0.314 0.286 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.673 2 0.584 0.133 3 0.561 0.034 0.169 4 0.560 0.034 0.166 0.006 5 0.560 0.026 0.164 -0.019 0.046 6 0.562 0.025 0.173 -0.018 0.077 -0.055 7 0.569 0.016 0.176 -0.040 0.073 -0.127 0.128 8 0.560 0.025 0.170 -0.037 0.061 -0.128 0.086 0.074 9 0.554 0.018 0.180 -0.041 0.063 -0.141 0.084 0.032 0.075 10 0.556 0.019 0.181 -0.044 0.065 -0.142 0.087 0.032 0.086 -0.020 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2887.16 2700.88 2697.31 2690.23 2692.22 2693.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2694.61 2691.48 2691.77 2692.00 2693.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.561 0.034 0.169 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 47.82 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 191.63 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.561 0.349 0.384 0.323 0.253 0.218 0.186 0.155 0.130 0.1097 0.092 0.077 0.065 0.055 0.046 0.039 0.033 0.027 0.023 0.0194 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.0034 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 971181 3 0.421 0.588 0.140 -0.089 2 971182 3 0.299 0.456 0.055 0.122 3 971191 3 0.324 0.382 0.063 0.246 4 971192 3 0.473 0.447 0.167 0.166 5 971201 3 0.176 0.379 0.054 0.015 6 971202 3 0.740 0.700 -0.025 0.223 7 971211 3 0.323 0.483 0.017 0.153 8 971212 3 0.429 0.564 0.047 0.105 9 971221 3 0.536 0.665 -0.038 0.154 10 971222 3 0.499 0.548 -0.007 0.247 11 971231 3 0.505 0.679 0.055 -0.017 12 971232 3 0.554 0.656 0.132 -0.023 13 971241 3 0.450 0.397 0.071 0.318 14 971242 3 0.459 0.555 0.092 0.092 15 971251 3 0.649 0.647 0.213 -0.031 16 971252 3 0.405 0.682 -0.161 0.126 17 971261 3 0.606 0.670 0.186 -0.065 18 971262 3 0.485 0.383 0.362 0.032 19 971271 3 0.341 0.438 0.151 0.065 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 971272 3 0.247 0.463 0.005 0.088 21 971281 3 0.489 0.617 0.164 -0.074 22 971282 3 0.420 0.537 0.155 0.003 23 971291 3 0.416 0.449 0.266 -0.005 24 971292 3 0.819 0.773 -0.016 0.170 25 971301 3 0.036 0.175 0.033 0.036 26 971302 3 0.189 0.437 -0.122 0.097 27 971311 3 0.204 0.366 0.026 0.152 28 971312 3 0.364 0.525 -0.020 0.167 29 971321 3 0.385 0.494 0.184 -0.039 30 971322 3 0.482 0.621 0.018 0.096 31 971331 3 0.416 0.422 0.147 0.178 32 971332 3 0.559 0.493 0.355 -0.054 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.428 0.522 0.086 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.162 0.129 0.119 0.106 MEDIAN 3 0.425 0.510 0.059 0.094 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.170 0.196 0.149 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.036 0.175 -0.161 -0.089 LOWER HINGE 3 0.332 0.438 0.011 -0.011 UPPER HINGE 3 0.502 0.634 0.159 0.160 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.819 0.773 0.362 0.318 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.002 0.382 1.031 5.429 0.371 0.022 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.320 1.360 7.232 0.304 -0.004 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.299 1.112 6.401 0.307 -0.024 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.302 1.100 6.052 0.307 -0.012 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.294 0.563 3.741 0.323 -0.005 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.004 0.385 1.008 6.276 0.394 0.001 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.317 0.467 3.301 0.342 0.001 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.320 0.370 3.850 0.351 -0.005 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.236 0.369 3.501 0.265 -0.006 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.249 0.543 4.863 0.261 0.015 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.231 0.545 3.481 0.268 0.001 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.224 0.307 3.869 0.251 -0.001 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.345 2.018 15.100 0.300 -0.006 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.306 0.532 4.257 0.321 -0.008 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.264 0.789 7.135 0.274 0.000 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.365 2.781 19.258 0.321 -0.100 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.003 0.302 1.023 8.423 0.319 0.030 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.319 1.134 6.034 0.320 -0.005 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.310 1.279 6.289 0.311 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.270 0.998 5.583 0.279 -0.009 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.302 1.620 11.458 0.298 -0.123 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.269 0.630 3.712 0.285 0.007 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.330 0.687 3.910 0.345 0.020 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.004 0.377 1.782 12.707 0.384 -0.030 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.244 1.302 6.448 0.248 0.000 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.226 0.929 4.856 0.237 0.017 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.001 0.327 0.925 5.577 0.306 0.023 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.251 0.612 3.761 0.255 -0.004 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.284 0.878 5.985 0.290 0.009 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.001 0.299 1.115 8.363 0.323 -0.022 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.273 0.973 5.683 0.288 0.011 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.002 0.288 2.383 21.847 0.270 0.044 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.001 0.297 1.036 7.012 0.304 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.001 0.045 0.576 4.478 0.039 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.300 0.985 5.834 0.305 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.053 0.619 3.294 0.050 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.224 0.307 3.301 0.237 -0.123 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.266 0.587 3.890 0.272 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.320 1.206 7.183 0.322 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.004 0.385 2.781 21.847 0.394 0.044 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.306 0.103 0.005 0.483 4.569 0.034 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 971292 AND 971302 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.476 0.558 0.330 0.250 0.332 0.313 0.324 0.342 0.381 0.415 SDEV 0.217 0.127 0.166 0.176 0.165 0.146 0.156 0.148 0.146 0.148 SERR 0.088 0.033 0.022 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.859 0.939 0.903 0.888 0.930 0.931 0.938 0.943 0.952 0.957 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.985 0.188 0.075 3.238 0.220 -0.013 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.232 0.138 0.075 139 173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.69 1.00 1.13 1.81 42.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 -0.051 0.011 -0.027 -0.019 -0.077 -0.033 0.063 -0.035 -0.012 PACF -0.013 -0.051 0.009 -0.029 -0.019 -0.081 -0.037 0.054 -0.037 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.033 -0.022 -0.076 -0.036 0.058 -0.035 -0.006 PACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.033 -0.022 -0.077 -0.036 0.057 -0.037 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.985 0.250 0.414 3.339 0.172 0.648 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.646 0.484 0.435 0.334 0.255 0.188 0.175 0.185 0.140 0.132 PACF 0.646 0.114 0.147 -0.029 -0.009 -0.033 0.057 0.071 -0.030 0.027 95% C.L. 0.113 0.153 0.172 0.185 0.193 0.197 0.200 0.201 0.204 0.205 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.438 0.555 0.032 0.146 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 16.63 MINUTES