RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 971 1 Krasnovishersk DENSITY_EARLY PCOB - 971 2 Russia Black Spuce 140 6023-5707 1680 1991 - 971 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 971192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 971212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1766 1766 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 971252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1794 1794 / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 971262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 971271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1854 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 971291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1975 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 971321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 971322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 3.984 0.649 2.523 12.027 0.083 0.536 2 971182 1780 1991 212 3.708 0.396 1.457 7.471 0.071 0.519 3 971191 1769 1991 223 3.635 0.386 1.054 5.000 0.076 0.494 4 971192 1742 1991 250 3.082 0.517 0.890 4.720 0.091 0.670 5 971201 1830 1981 152 2.944 0.390 0.656 3.719 0.087 0.599 6 971202 1796 1981 186 3.762 0.512 1.741 7.475 0.074 0.730 7 971211 1739 1991 253 3.386 0.331 1.031 5.077 0.083 0.375 8 971212 1716 1991 276 3.413 0.424 1.702 8.648 0.080 0.534 9 971221 1797 1991 195 3.548 0.575 2.470 10.425 0.065 0.796 10 971222 1816 1991 176 3.638 0.490 3.673 28.216 0.071 0.497 11 971231 1790 1991 202 3.566 0.349 0.795 8.610 0.059 0.620 12 971232 1766 1991 226 3.364 0.638 2.905 13.042 0.063 0.852 13 971241 1763 1991 229 3.866 0.732 2.737 13.593 0.063 0.798 14 971242 1762 1991 230 3.887 0.699 1.760 6.869 0.069 0.810 15 971251 1768 1991 224 3.751 0.379 1.099 5.712 0.064 0.612 16 971252 1785 1991 207 3.526 0.300 0.314 2.689 0.062 0.581 17 971261 1749 1991 243 3.698 0.515 1.669 9.543 0.078 0.604 18 971262 1747 1991 245 3.568 0.635 1.448 6.258 0.075 0.733 19 971271 1827 1991 165 3.586 0.387 0.635 3.374 0.071 0.623 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 3.411 0.411 2.736 14.012 0.079 0.534 21 971281 1767 1991 225 3.368 0.484 2.113 8.966 0.070 0.768 22 971282 1782 1991 210 3.415 0.722 2.511 9.962 0.074 0.824 23 971291 1827 1991 165 3.744 0.380 0.764 3.562 0.089 0.305 24 971292 1796 1991 196 3.847 0.647 1.328 4.542 0.079 0.762 25 971301 1874 1991 118 3.252 0.384 0.790 3.607 0.060 0.752 26 971302 1874 1991 118 3.392 0.522 1.424 5.500 0.063 0.784 27 971311 1863 1991 129 3.813 0.564 3.116 14.465 0.065 0.632 28 971312 1851 1991 141 3.558 0.401 1.653 7.324 0.063 0.684 29 971321 1695 1991 297 3.496 0.485 -0.076 3.393 0.069 0.755 30 971322 1680 1991 312 3.671 0.563 1.517 7.873 0.069 0.781 31 971331 1703 1991 289 3.590 0.418 1.887 14.646 0.065 0.587 32 971332 1704 1991 288 3.276 0.452 1.758 11.512 0.070 0.679 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1680 TO 1991 312 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 3.555 0.492 1.628 8.495 0.072 0.651 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.234 0.121 0.872 5.103 0.009 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 3.567 0.484 1.585 7.473 0.071 0.651 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.325 0.181 1.331 6.108 0.014 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 118 2.944 0.300 -0.076 2.689 0.059 0.305 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 3.401 0.389 0.960 4.860 0.064 0.558 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 3.726 0.570 2.292 10.968 0.078 0.765 MAXIMUM VALUE 310 3.984 0.732 3.673 28.216 0.091 0.852 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.433 0.205 0.009 -0.781 3.745 -0.326 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.326 SERIES 971251 AND 971312 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 971241 AND 971242 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.646 0.505 0.289 0.318 0.396 0.280 0.280 0.322 0.464 0.459 SDEV 0.110 0.117 0.205 0.257 0.187 0.234 0.228 0.204 0.176 0.172 SERR 0.045 0.030 0.028 0.019 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.925 0.925 0.885 0.917 0.946 0.920 0.925 0.938 0.965 0.964 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 3.693 0.511 2.263 10.481 0.061 0.760 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.031 0.012 0.309 140 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 1.05 1.00 1.05 2.10 51.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 211. 74. 118. 170. 244. 312. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.757 0.731 0.678 0.647 0.614 0.568 0.583 0.568 0.548 0.482 PACF 0.757 0.369 0.135 0.088 0.052 -0.014 0.130 0.078 0.011 -0.129 95% C.L. 0.113 0.166 0.203 0.230 0.253 0.271 0.286 0.301 0.314 0.326 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.745 0.295 0.305 0.171 0.161 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 1 2.38191342 0.07900185 0.00000000 3.84418154 2 971182 1 1.22994328 0.06328762 0.00000000 3.61922002 3 971191 1 1.27058184 0.03801919 0.00000000 3.48846912 4 971192 1 1.65652621 0.00874492 0.00000000 2.41071367 5 971201 1 1.05976558 0.04902705 0.00000000 2.80527806 6 971202 1 1.82092297 0.04059606 0.00000000 3.52604198 7 971211 1 0.73947948 0.00795106 0.00000000 3.06925297 8 971212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331547 3.87470984 9 971221 1 2.81169343 0.05829018 0.00000000 3.30762362 10 971222 1 1.26850080 0.00844405 0.00000000 2.98068428 11 971231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00452041 4.02461338 12 971232 1 3.46477723 0.07128269 0.00000000 3.15631127 13 971241 1 3.55841708 0.05072951 0.00000000 3.56742883 14 971242 1 2.66057920 0.03058428 0.00000000 3.51483822 15 971251 1 1.13751519 0.04478194 0.00000000 3.64042640 16 971252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050998 3.58433294 17 971261 1 1.31097198 0.01720471 0.00000000 3.39204931 18 971262 1 1.83727992 0.01291193 0.00000000 3.01977754 19 971271 1 1.28572416 0.09001558 0.00000000 3.49766588 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 1 1.79073191 0.10930844 0.00000000 3.29597664 21 971281 1 1.70222390 0.02991321 0.00000000 3.11915660 22 971282 1 2.83906555 0.03902437 0.00000000 3.07547951 23 971291 1 1.54110086 0.32851008 0.00000000 3.72431993 24 971292 1 2.30260468 0.03518594 0.00000000 3.51959348 25 971301 1 1.40855241 0.01571151 0.00000000 2.61673975 26 971302 1 1.81248319 0.03556607 0.00000000 2.97384953 27 971311 1 2.14351749 0.07185128 0.00000000 3.58983994 28 971312 1 1.58367682 0.06737673 0.00000000 3.39716673 29 971321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444803 4.15933466 30 971322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00427706 4.34008741 31 971331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00302610 4.02843809 32 971332 1 2.13171935 0.00275131 0.00000000 1.80645263 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.125 1.097 4.624 0.082 0.474 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.089 0.696 3.752 0.071 0.364 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.077 0.395 4.142 0.076 0.087 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.102 0.529 3.983 0.090 0.239 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.108 0.483 2.863 0.087 0.395 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.083 0.484 3.224 0.073 0.321 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.082 1.022 4.576 0.082 0.133 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.093 1.460 7.492 0.080 0.270 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.068 0.058 3.616 0.065 0.244 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.104 3.475 26.890 0.071 0.271 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.063 1.417 11.624 0.059 0.151 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.089 -0.206 4.086 0.063 0.600 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.080 -0.189 3.321 0.062 0.475 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.091 0.076 2.971 0.068 0.483 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.080 0.061 2.833 0.063 0.458 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.085 0.343 2.706 0.062 0.588 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.104 1.197 7.483 0.077 0.375 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.114 1.401 8.392 0.077 0.466 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.091 0.363 2.940 0.071 0.491 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.080 0.131 3.715 0.078 0.132 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.080 -0.052 4.381 0.070 0.318 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.104 0.787 4.559 0.074 0.511 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.097 0.740 3.529 0.089 0.250 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.102 0.812 5.793 0.078 0.401 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.058 0.434 2.939 0.060 0.166 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.075 0.514 3.085 0.063 0.393 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.085 0.815 5.919 0.065 0.285 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.069 -0.299 3.879 0.062 0.273 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.085 0.391 4.159 0.069 0.411 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.103 1.164 6.251 0.069 0.576 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.089 1.970 14.888 0.065 0.345 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.087 1.679 11.186 0.070 0.338 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.089 0.726 5.806 0.072 0.353 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.015 0.761 4.802 0.009 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.088 0.521 4.114 0.070 0.354 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.022 0.893 2.813 0.014 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.058 -0.299 2.706 0.059 0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.080 0.237 3.272 0.064 0.260 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.102 1.130 6.085 0.078 0.470 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.125 3.475 26.890 0.090 0.600 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 971182 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 971191 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 971192 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 971201 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 971202 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 971222 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 971231 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 971232 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 971241 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 971242 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 971251 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 971252 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 971261 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 971262 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 971271 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 971281 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 971282 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 971301 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 971302 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 971311 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 971312 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 971321 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 971322 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 971331 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 971332 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.113 0.872 4.770 0.082 0.373 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.078 0.918 4.894 0.071 0.187 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.073 0.710 5.374 0.076 -0.020 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.095 0.796 5.021 0.090 0.116 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.999 0.089 0.467 3.068 0.087 0.143 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.080 0.371 3.274 0.073 0.276 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.081 1.011 4.621 0.082 0.114 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.091 1.444 7.410 0.080 0.235 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.062 0.225 3.724 0.065 0.086 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.101 3.638 28.794 0.071 0.230 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.062 1.396 11.276 0.059 0.113 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.075 0.421 5.561 0.063 0.433 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.067 0.318 4.301 0.062 0.246 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.078 0.262 3.563 0.068 0.305 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.072 0.121 3.349 0.063 0.335 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.999 0.068 0.261 3.162 0.062 0.356 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.102 1.225 7.519 0.077 0.355 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.999 0.105 1.542 8.502 0.077 0.383 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.079 0.273 3.445 0.071 0.331 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.074 0.169 4.138 0.078 0.009 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.077 -0.090 4.824 0.070 0.263 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.097 1.102 5.703 0.074 0.434 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.096 0.816 3.666 0.089 0.226 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.092 1.728 12.554 0.079 0.234 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.056 0.383 2.862 0.060 0.093 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.063 0.799 3.599 0.063 0.163 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.084 0.980 6.484 0.065 0.248 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.065 -0.309 4.180 0.063 0.200 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.075 0.895 5.532 0.069 0.223 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.999 0.087 1.083 5.928 0.069 0.418 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.085 3.027 23.228 0.065 0.267 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.083 1.473 10.436 0.070 0.290 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.081 0.885 6.711 0.072 0.240 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.014 0.819 5.648 0.009 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.080 0.808 4.859 0.070 0.240 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.019 0.868 3.314 0.014 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.999 0.056 -0.309 2.862 0.059 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.073 0.296 3.632 0.064 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.091 1.164 6.947 0.078 0.333 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.113 3.638 28.794 0.090 0.434 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.306 0.109 0.005 0.292 3.312 -0.011 0.726 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.011 SERIES 971181 AND 971232 207 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.726 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.629 0.556 0.203 0.254 0.326 0.305 0.328 0.356 0.449 0.439 SDEV 0.111 0.112 0.189 0.195 0.191 0.196 0.176 0.167 0.160 0.156 SERR 0.045 0.029 0.025 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.920 0.938 0.828 0.890 0.928 0.929 0.939 0.947 0.963 0.961 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.070 1.002 5.755 0.069 0.164 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.220 0.120 -0.060 123 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.64 1.00 1.08 1.73 6.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.164 0.222 0.160 0.174 0.148 -0.013 0.118 0.162 0.179 0.096 PACF 0.164 0.200 0.105 0.106 0.072 -0.111 0.066 0.139 0.122 0.011 95% C.L. 0.113 0.116 0.122 0.124 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.133 0.136 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.125 0.089 0.176 0.105 0.138 0.100 -0.107 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.008 0.060 0.062 0.023 0.014 -0.155 -0.088 0.058 -0.008 -0.036 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.008 2 -0.008 0.060 3 -0.011 0.060 0.063 4 -0.013 0.059 0.063 0.020 5 -0.013 0.059 0.063 0.020 0.007 6 -0.012 0.062 0.073 0.030 0.005 -0.162 7 -0.028 0.062 0.076 0.037 0.011 -0.163 -0.099 8 -0.020 0.075 0.075 0.034 0.005 -0.168 -0.097 0.075 9 -0.022 0.078 0.080 0.034 0.004 -0.170 -0.099 0.076 0.029 10 -0.022 0.079 0.077 0.030 0.004 -0.169 -0.097 0.078 0.028 -0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1849.64 1851.62 1852.50 1853.27 1855.14 1857.12 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1850.83 1849.75 1849.98 1851.71 1853.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 971181 0 0.145 2 971182 0 0.036 3 971191 0 0.000 4 971192 0 0.014 5 971201 0 0.021 6 971202 0 0.077 7 971211 0 0.013 8 971212 0 0.059 9 971221 0 0.007 10 971222 0 0.053 11 971231 0 0.013 12 971232 0 0.188 13 971241 0 0.064 14 971242 0 0.094 15 971251 0 0.113 16 971252 0 0.128 17 971261 0 0.127 18 971262 0 0.149 19 971271 0 0.110 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 971272 0 0.000 21 971281 0 0.072 22 971282 0 0.189 23 971291 0 0.052 24 971292 0 0.055 25 971301 0 0.009 26 971302 0 0.027 27 971311 0 0.062 28 971312 0 0.041 29 971321 0 0.051 30 971322 0 0.192 31 971331 0 0.072 32 971332 0 0.088 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.073 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.057 MEDIAN 0 0.060 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.024 UPPER HINGE 0 0.111 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.192 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.113 0.872 4.770 0.082 0.373 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.078 0.918 4.894 0.071 0.187 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.073 0.710 5.374 0.076 -0.020 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.095 0.796 5.021 0.090 0.116 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.089 0.467 3.068 0.086 0.143 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.080 0.371 3.274 0.073 0.276 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.081 1.011 4.621 0.082 0.114 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.091 1.444 7.410 0.080 0.235 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.062 0.225 3.724 0.065 0.086 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.101 3.638 28.794 0.071 0.230 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.062 1.396 11.276 0.059 0.113 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.075 0.421 5.561 0.063 0.433 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.067 0.318 4.301 0.062 0.246 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.078 0.262 3.563 0.068 0.305 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.072 0.121 3.349 0.063 0.335 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.068 0.261 3.162 0.062 0.356 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.102 1.226 7.519 0.077 0.355 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.105 1.542 8.502 0.077 0.383 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.079 0.273 3.445 0.071 0.331 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.074 0.169 4.138 0.078 0.009 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.077 -0.090 4.824 0.070 0.263 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.097 1.102 5.703 0.074 0.434 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.096 0.816 3.666 0.089 0.226 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.092 1.728 12.554 0.078 0.234 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.056 0.383 2.861 0.060 0.093 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.063 0.799 3.599 0.063 0.163 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.084 0.980 6.484 0.065 0.248 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.065 -0.309 4.180 0.063 0.200 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.075 0.895 5.532 0.069 0.223 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.087 1.083 5.928 0.069 0.418 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.085 3.027 23.228 0.065 0.267 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.083 1.473 10.436 0.070 0.290 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.081 0.885 6.711 0.072 0.240 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.014 0.819 5.648 0.009 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.080 0.808 4.859 0.070 0.240 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.019 0.868 3.314 0.014 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.056 -0.309 2.861 0.059 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.073 0.296 3.632 0.064 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.091 1.164 6.947 0.078 0.333 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.113 3.638 28.794 0.090 0.434 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.306 0.109 0.005 0.292 3.312 -0.011 0.726 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.011 SERIES 971181 AND 971232 207 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.726 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.629 0.556 0.203 0.254 0.326 0.305 0.328 0.356 0.449 0.439 SDEV 0.111 0.112 0.189 0.195 0.191 0.196 0.176 0.167 0.160 0.156 SERR 0.045 0.029 0.025 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.920 0.938 0.828 0.890 0.928 0.929 0.939 0.947 0.963 0.961 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.070 1.005 5.759 0.069 0.165 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.220 0.120 -0.059 123 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.65 1.00 1.08 1.73 6.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.164 0.223 0.160 0.174 0.148 -0.013 0.119 0.162 0.179 0.097 PACF 0.164 0.201 0.105 0.106 0.072 -0.111 0.067 0.139 0.122 0.012 95% C.L. 0.113 0.116 0.122 0.124 0.127 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.134 0.137 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.126 0.089 0.176 0.105 0.138 0.101 -0.107 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.070 1.005 5.759 0.069 0.165 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.164 0.223 0.160 0.174 0.148 -0.013 0.119 0.162 0.179 0.097 PACF 0.164 0.201 0.105 0.106 0.072 -0.111 0.067 0.139 0.122 0.012 95% C.L. 0.113 0.116 0.122 0.124 0.127 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.134 0.137 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.126 0.089 0.176 0.105 0.138 0.101 -0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES