RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 971 1 Krasnovishersk WIDTH_LATE PCOB - 971 2 Russia Black Spuce 140 6023-5707 1680 1991 - 971 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 971191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1817 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 971192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1771 1776 / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 971202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1841 1845 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 971211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1772 1778 / 1846 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 971212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1785 1789 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 971252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1794 1794 / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 971262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 971271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1854 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 971291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 971292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 971321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 971322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.152 0.169 4.209 21.360 0.317 0.416 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.116 0.072 4.096 27.728 0.311 0.220 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.153 0.101 1.115 3.615 0.341 0.606 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.098 0.068 2.382 10.657 0.336 0.383 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.150 0.075 1.547 5.723 0.336 0.556 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.144 0.117 2.076 7.814 0.371 0.546 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.096 0.068 2.594 12.798 0.285 0.655 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.091 0.081 3.188 18.712 0.312 0.534 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.194 0.090 1.181 4.324 0.313 0.519 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.170 0.070 1.389 6.108 0.293 0.465 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.100 0.051 2.183 10.917 0.260 0.532 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.102 0.042 1.390 5.123 0.225 0.664 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.137 0.097 2.434 12.307 0.287 0.776 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.160 0.103 1.995 8.027 0.327 0.462 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.138 0.118 3.322 19.831 0.350 0.449 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.136 0.108 2.717 11.341 0.302 0.699 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.139 0.083 2.130 10.932 0.324 0.554 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.166 0.111 2.183 8.016 0.405 0.424 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.359 0.307 1.636 5.354 0.519 0.581 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 0.196 0.106 1.041 3.297 0.421 0.416 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.145 0.081 2.313 10.880 0.287 0.628 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.202 0.159 2.799 12.231 0.317 0.637 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.220 0.219 1.893 6.962 0.364 0.790 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.168 0.159 2.156 7.836 0.303 0.853 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.258 0.148 1.632 7.405 0.289 0.610 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.276 0.172 1.650 5.971 0.322 0.570 27 971311 1863 1991 129 0.272 0.230 5.448 41.393 0.351 0.181 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.214 0.091 0.481 2.901 0.290 0.650 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.156 0.129 6.036 60.410 0.318 0.406 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.157 0.139 3.723 27.304 0.293 0.740 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.081 0.058 9.166118.580 0.250 0.364 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.095 0.075 4.019 23.087 0.268 0.761 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1680 TO 1991 312 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 0.164 0.116 2.691 16.842 0.322 0.551 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.062 0.057 1.721 22.161 0.055 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.153 0.102 2.183 10.769 0.315 0.555 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.069 0.069 1.621 13.232 0.049 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.081 0.042 0.481 2.901 0.225 0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.126 0.075 1.634 6.039 0.290 0.437 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 242 0.195 0.144 3.255 19.271 0.339 0.653 MAXIMUM VALUE 310 0.359 0.307 9.166118.580 0.519 0.853 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.151 0.246 0.011 -0.246 2.864 -0.557 0.860 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.557 SERIES 971291 AND 971301 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.860 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.292 0.242 0.121 0.074 0.419 0.254 0.266 0.179 0.178 0.244 SDEV 0.268 0.204 0.202 0.264 0.216 0.270 0.275 0.246 0.240 0.239 SERR 0.109 0.053 0.027 0.019 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.735 0.794 0.724 0.657 0.951 0.910 0.920 0.874 0.874 0.911 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.123 0.048 1.216 4.874 0.210 0.608 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.668 0.551 -0.007 188 124 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.54 3.59 1.00 1.48 5.06 76.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 211. 74. 118. 170. 244. 312. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.606 0.567 0.566 0.531 0.488 0.420 0.493 0.445 0.473 0.416 PACF 0.606 0.315 0.245 0.131 0.053 -0.044 0.177 0.035 0.132 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.113 0.149 0.175 0.197 0.214 0.228 0.238 0.251 0.260 0.271 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.476 0.303 0.189 0.202 0.130 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 1 0.51076537 0.07860120 0.00000000 0.12170981 2 971182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009763 0.10587633 3 971191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00102377 0.03671904 4 971192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019256 0.07491947 5 971201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010358 0.15818664 6 971202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014812 0.12801382 7 971211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054826 0.02359884 8 971212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029921 0.04883702 9 971221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027685 0.16692044 10 971222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022375 0.15053897 11 971231 1 0.06445104 0.00498438 0.00000000 0.05987607 12 971232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005640 0.10834808 13 971241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039715 0.18252815 14 971242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020012 0.18311372 15 971251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059780 0.20546685 16 971252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046071 0.18538126 17 971261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026192 0.10709962 18 971262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004333 0.17178865 19 971271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00171382 0.21278089 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00134875 0.10458153 21 971281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027953 0.17665356 22 971282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118143 0.32687855 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116771 0.27973670 25 971301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00314365 0.07100391 26 971302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00268966 0.11640591 27 971311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113875 0.19822916 28 971312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00121825 0.12768896 29 971321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038800 0.09776133 30 971322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080924 0.03025988 31 971331 1 0.19228053 0.07734629 0.00000000 0.07293759 32 971332 1 0.16254225 0.10071431 0.00000000 0.09012515 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.999 0.700 2.321 9.704 0.316 0.475 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.653 4.689 33.288 0.310 0.198 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.024 0.550 1.738 6.763 0.336 0.518 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.006 0.732 3.266 18.629 0.337 0.327 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.491 1.438 5.387 0.334 0.541 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.999 0.816 2.120 8.058 0.366 0.553 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.037 0.531 1.776 6.875 0.281 0.566 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.033 1.243 6.695 57.308 0.312 0.410 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.457 1.249 4.824 0.312 0.487 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.408 1.502 6.615 0.292 0.446 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.500 1.981 7.853 0.259 0.575 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.412 1.395 5.121 0.224 0.664 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.995 0.673 2.666 13.519 0.287 0.750 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.622 1.775 6.662 0.325 0.491 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.783 3.675 23.819 0.349 0.430 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.989 0.731 2.706 11.073 0.302 0.748 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.998 0.618 3.381 24.445 0.323 0.500 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.662 2.130 7.817 0.403 0.418 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.980 0.802 1.713 5.558 0.515 0.549 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.010 0.488 1.227 4.202 0.418 0.271 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.997 0.528 2.443 11.833 0.286 0.618 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.997 0.583 2.313 9.505 0.316 0.586 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.011 0.512 1.092 4.171 0.358 0.512 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.952 0.725 2.289 8.542 0.304 0.814 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.998 0.327 0.658 4.261 0.287 0.300 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.583 3.562 19.621 0.321 0.386 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.003 0.967 7.175 62.716 0.348 0.120 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.995 0.369 0.708 2.934 0.288 0.508 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.005 0.827 5.896 50.532 0.320 0.305 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.176 1.100 2.868 12.918 0.293 0.783 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.458 3.025 20.353 0.250 0.456 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.757 4.270 26.328 0.267 0.809 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.006 0.644 2.679 15.664 0.320 0.503 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.034 0.205 1.609 15.494 0.054 0.170 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.620 2.301 9.024 0.314 0.504 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.006 0.249 1.716 13.900 0.049 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.952 0.327 0.658 2.934 0.224 0.120 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.998 0.495 1.607 6.087 0.288 0.414 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.004 0.745 3.324 19.987 0.336 0.581 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.176 1.243 7.175 62.716 0.515 0.814 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 971182 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 971191 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 971192 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 971201 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 971202 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 971222 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 971231 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 971232 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 971241 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 971242 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 971251 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 971252 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 971261 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 971262 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 971271 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 971281 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 971282 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 971301 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 971302 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 971311 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 971312 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 971321 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 971322 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 971331 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 971332 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.982 0.690 3.061 14.924 0.316 0.396 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.989 0.597 4.553 32.164 0.310 0.175 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.987 0.432 0.904 3.607 0.334 0.383 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.989 0.554 2.466 13.020 0.337 0.251 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.985 0.364 0.934 3.898 0.334 0.293 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.003 0.555 2.093 10.817 0.367 0.358 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.990 0.422 1.700 7.946 0.280 0.444 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.991 0.552 2.660 17.132 0.314 0.403 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.993 0.434 1.530 6.901 0.312 0.416 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.995 0.389 1.645 7.197 0.292 0.408 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.982 0.399 3.013 19.480 0.259 0.329 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.986 0.328 1.402 5.476 0.225 0.495 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.968 0.502 2.629 12.341 0.287 0.531 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.980 0.576 2.212 9.289 0.325 0.370 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.962 0.660 4.049 27.723 0.349 0.330 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.988 0.479 1.667 6.135 0.303 0.547 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.975 0.521 4.561 40.640 0.323 0.340 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.993 0.615 2.377 10.757 0.403 0.284 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.994 0.567 1.063 3.894 0.515 0.349 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 0.992 0.418 1.230 5.005 0.418 0.052 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.992 0.414 2.179 10.186 0.286 0.357 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.995 0.564 2.258 9.100 0.316 0.547 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.992 0.481 1.324 5.129 0.357 0.512 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.980 0.502 1.659 6.583 0.304 0.643 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.997 0.318 0.752 4.761 0.286 0.256 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.989 0.523 3.656 19.737 0.320 0.288 27 971311 1863 1991 129 0.997 0.885 6.659 55.484 0.348 0.135 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.996 0.343 0.912 3.950 0.289 0.396 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.981 0.678 5.465 42.237 0.320 0.240 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.973 0.427 1.650 8.989 0.293 0.512 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.988 0.411 3.739 30.631 0.250 0.346 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.981 0.607 3.359 18.581 0.268 0.733 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.987 0.507 2.480 14.804 0.320 0.379 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.009 0.123 1.424 12.937 0.054 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.989 0.502 2.196 9.737 0.315 0.364 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.012 0.156 1.743 13.225 0.048 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.962 0.318 0.752 3.607 0.225 0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.982 0.416 1.466 5.806 0.288 0.290 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 0.993 0.572 3.210 19.030 0.336 0.469 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.003 0.885 6.659 55.484 0.515 0.733 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.189 0.119 0.005 0.472 3.383 -0.143 0.635 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.143 SERIES 971252 AND 971301 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.635 SERIES 971181 AND 971182 207 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.154 0.190 0.117 0.065 0.248 0.243 0.284 0.182 0.201 0.262 SDEV 0.316 0.230 0.198 0.246 0.293 0.227 0.209 0.207 0.202 0.206 SERR 0.129 0.059 0.027 0.018 0.018 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.550 0.740 0.715 0.622 0.898 0.905 0.926 0.877 0.889 0.918 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.928 0.250 1.042 4.304 0.209 0.408 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.518 0.406 -0.057 158 154 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.54 1.25 1.00 1.17 2.42 31.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.407 0.280 0.316 0.265 0.169 0.086 0.168 0.142 0.176 0.096 PACF 0.407 0.136 0.198 0.080 -0.017 -0.070 0.102 0.029 0.116 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.113 0.131 0.138 0.147 0.153 0.155 0.156 0.158 0.160 0.162 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.220 0.307 0.063 0.173 0.081 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.442 0.267 0.304 0.262 0.156 0.109 0.128 0.163 0.224 0.093 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.442 2 0.403 0.088 3 0.386 0.009 0.197 4 0.371 0.008 0.169 0.072 5 0.373 0.013 0.170 0.082 -0.027 6 0.373 0.014 0.173 0.083 -0.020 -0.018 7 0.373 0.015 0.170 0.076 -0.021 -0.032 0.037 8 0.370 0.018 0.172 0.070 -0.036 -0.033 0.004 0.086 9 0.357 0.017 0.176 0.075 -0.046 -0.058 0.002 0.032 0.148 10 0.372 0.020 0.177 0.069 -0.050 -0.051 0.019 0.033 0.183 -0.098 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2881.69 2815.86 2815.41 2805.02 2805.39 2807.16 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2809.06 2810.64 2810.30 2805.37 2804.37 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.386 0.009 0.197 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 23.28 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 130.34 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.386 0.157 0.261 0.178 0.102 0.093 0.072 0.049 0.038 0.0291 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0016 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 971181 3 0.321 0.293 0.031 0.329 2 971182 3 0.070 0.147 0.047 0.187 3 971191 3 0.211 0.314 0.040 0.235 4 971192 3 0.167 0.131 0.265 0.160 5 971201 3 0.098 0.289 -0.024 0.115 6 971202 3 0.193 0.248 0.162 0.172 7 971211 3 0.267 0.386 0.037 0.159 8 971212 3 0.247 0.275 0.275 0.052 9 971221 3 0.217 0.383 -0.034 0.221 10 971222 3 0.185 0.391 -0.027 0.145 11 971231 3 0.133 0.280 0.118 0.049 12 971232 3 0.268 0.421 0.158 -0.007 13 971241 3 0.306 0.463 0.036 0.142 14 971242 3 0.188 0.277 0.150 0.127 15 971251 3 0.154 0.245 0.176 0.095 16 971252 3 0.339 0.448 0.189 0.003 17 971261 3 0.139 0.299 0.046 0.129 18 971262 3 0.086 0.273 0.015 0.058 19 971271 3 0.139 0.340 -0.009 0.115 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 971272 3 0.066 0.039 0.126 0.051 21 971281 3 0.152 0.310 0.076 0.091 22 971282 3 0.313 0.523 0.036 0.019 23 971291 3 0.276 0.459 0.093 0.026 24 971292 3 0.446 0.578 0.153 -0.066 25 971301 3 0.120 0.206 0.126 0.109 26 971302 3 0.095 0.295 -0.007 -0.082 27 971311 3 0.021 0.141 -0.039 -0.001 28 971312 3 0.159 0.382 0.034 0.006 29 971321 3 0.062 0.228 0.029 0.054 30 971322 3 0.288 0.467 0.043 0.073 31 971331 3 0.154 0.292 0.085 0.110 32 971332 3 0.582 0.542 0.324 -0.069 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.202 0.324 0.085 0.088 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.125 0.093 0.092 MEDIAN 3 0.176 0.297 0.047 0.093 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.146 0.146 0.122 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.021 0.039 -0.039 -0.082 LOWER HINGE 3 0.126 0.261 0.030 0.023 UPPER HINGE 3 0.272 0.406 0.152 0.144 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.582 0.578 0.324 0.329 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.017 0.546 2.161 10.641 0.393 0.167 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.576 5.173 39.379 0.344 -0.004 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.382 0.751 3.956 0.392 -0.003 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.506 3.203 20.637 0.384 -0.007 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.346 0.882 4.157 0.365 0.000 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.498 2.913 17.367 0.414 0.002 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.371 1.932 10.344 0.350 -0.035 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.004 0.467 2.682 19.833 0.376 0.007 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.384 1.437 7.392 0.385 -0.006 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.351 1.477 7.284 0.356 -0.003 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.001 0.369 3.445 27.002 0.295 0.026 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.281 1.214 5.744 0.283 -0.002 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.418 2.558 13.648 0.356 -0.001 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.001 0.520 2.482 12.526 0.394 0.015 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.002 0.605 4.655 36.060 0.405 0.007 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.390 1.465 6.638 0.376 -0.007 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.002 0.479 5.156 49.364 0.361 0.025 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.588 2.767 13.881 0.449 -0.002 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.002 0.521 0.743 3.410 0.599 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.414 1.232 5.293 0.424 -0.011 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.001 0.378 2.195 11.839 0.337 0.008 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.002 0.465 1.644 7.766 0.405 0.016 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.410 1.084 5.336 0.452 0.003 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.001 0.377 1.337 5.745 0.391 0.010 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.301 0.789 4.520 0.312 0.013 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.498 4.078 23.468 0.357 -0.006 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.877 6.815 57.959 0.389 0.000 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.315 0.781 3.714 0.338 0.000 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.001 0.655 5.810 45.809 0.354 0.007 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.364 1.640 10.072 0.363 -0.011 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.001 0.377 4.591 43.726 0.293 0.018 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.003 0.384 1.879 12.102 0.358 0.031 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.001 0.450 2.530 17.082 0.377 0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.003 0.122 1.644 15.323 0.057 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.412 2.046 11.240 0.371 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.001 0.139 2.040 16.308 0.042 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.281 0.743 3.410 0.283 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.374 1.284 5.745 0.352 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.001 0.513 3.324 22.053 0.393 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.017 0.877 6.815 57.959 0.599 0.167 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.184 0.106 0.005 0.656 4.106 -0.055 0.613 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.055 SERIES 971191 AND 971311 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.613 SERIES 971302 AND 971311 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.281 0.215 0.121 0.075 0.171 0.229 0.280 0.212 0.218 0.261 SDEV 0.194 0.231 0.165 0.201 0.191 0.166 0.180 0.184 0.160 0.178 SERR 0.079 0.060 0.022 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.725 0.768 0.723 0.660 0.847 0.898 0.925 0.896 0.899 0.918 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.956 0.222 0.991 5.412 0.238 -0.014 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.416 0.353 -0.060 162 150 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.59 1.01 1.17 2.75 84.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 -0.017 0.081 0.128 0.059 -0.082 0.084 0.048 0.142 -0.052 PACF -0.014 -0.017 0.081 0.131 0.068 -0.084 0.062 0.023 0.150 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 -0.003 0.009 0.124 0.060 -0.097 0.082 0.042 0.147 -0.066 PACF -0.011 -0.003 0.009 0.124 0.064 -0.097 0.079 0.029 0.138 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.016 -0.011 -0.003 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.956 0.263 0.993 4.466 0.194 0.486 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.485 0.324 0.381 0.375 0.271 0.176 0.240 0.240 0.256 0.151 PACF 0.485 0.116 0.247 0.140 0.002 -0.064 0.093 0.042 0.124 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.113 0.137 0.147 0.159 0.170 0.175 0.178 0.182 0.186 0.190 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.307 0.363 0.009 0.193 0.141 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2.79 MINUTES