RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 971 1 Krasnovishersk DENSITY_MINIMUM PCOB - 971 2 Russia Black Spuce 140 6023-5707 1680 1991 - 971 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 971182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1930 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 971191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 971192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 971212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1766 1766 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 971222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 971231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1962 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 971252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1794 1794 / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 971262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 971271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1854 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 971291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1975 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 971302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1987 1991 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 971321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1704 1704 / 1817 1821 / 1918 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 971322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.323 0.063 2.641 13.448 0.093 0.528 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.296 0.036 1.231 7.197 0.072 0.592 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.290 0.047 1.507 6.126 0.083 0.746 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.229 0.053 0.888 4.154 0.109 0.742 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.211 0.035 1.095 4.555 0.106 0.694 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.300 0.057 2.312 10.723 0.088 0.770 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.273 0.036 0.772 3.402 0.091 0.564 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.275 0.045 1.058 5.094 0.087 0.654 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.275 0.059 2.948 12.858 0.067 0.831 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.282 0.043 3.967 33.584 0.073 0.490 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.288 0.031 0.640 6.052 0.067 0.608 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.270 0.061 3.177 13.820 0.067 0.855 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.306 0.071 3.413 20.218 0.083 0.738 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.310 0.066 2.233 9.239 0.078 0.790 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.303 0.036 0.751 4.275 0.069 0.667 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.286 0.027 0.175 2.664 0.067 0.589 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.299 0.053 1.633 7.642 0.093 0.627 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.283 0.061 1.664 7.021 0.085 0.761 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.285 0.037 1.375 5.755 0.074 0.645 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 0.269 0.031 1.288 6.075 0.069 0.645 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.268 0.039 2.111 8.348 0.075 0.737 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.272 0.062 2.782 11.922 0.084 0.778 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.301 0.036 0.572 3.136 0.111 0.207 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.317 0.060 1.631 5.337 0.085 0.723 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.245 0.040 0.904 3.470 0.076 0.776 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.263 0.046 1.385 5.468 0.071 0.811 27 971311 1863 1991 129 0.306 0.053 2.948 14.824 0.072 0.618 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.279 0.042 1.494 5.492 0.081 0.710 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.268 0.044 -0.320 2.656 0.079 0.804 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.287 0.057 1.411 7.494 0.080 0.798 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.278 0.034 0.807 7.242 0.082 0.582 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.248 0.040 1.989 12.853 0.082 0.677 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1680 TO 1991 312 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.281 0.047 1.640 8.504 0.081 0.680 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.024 0.012 0.991 6.188 0.012 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.283 0.044 1.452 6.574 0.081 0.702 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 75 0.030 0.022 1.376 6.498 0.014 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.211 0.027 -0.320 2.656 0.067 0.207 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 0.269 0.036 0.896 4.825 0.072 0.613 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 0.300 0.058 2.272 11.322 0.086 0.773 MAXIMUM VALUE 310 0.323 0.071 3.967 33.584 0.111 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.413 0.233 0.010 -0.802 3.352 -0.385 0.849 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.385 SERIES 971251 AND 971312 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.849 SERIES 971321 AND 971322 297 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.487 0.383 0.242 0.367 0.414 0.236 0.216 0.210 0.307 0.405 SDEV 0.120 0.151 0.227 0.242 0.169 0.230 0.235 0.189 0.188 0.168 SERR 0.049 0.039 0.031 0.018 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.865 0.883 0.858 0.933 0.950 0.902 0.897 0.895 0.934 0.956 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.294 0.048 2.474 12.097 0.059 0.802 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.065 -0.023 0.040 140 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.84 1.00 1.08 1.92 26.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 211. 74. 118. 170. 244. 312. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.800 0.756 0.714 0.675 0.640 0.586 0.596 0.563 0.527 0.474 PACF 0.800 0.322 0.145 0.067 0.038 -0.044 0.141 0.011 -0.037 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.113 0.171 0.209 0.239 0.262 0.281 0.297 0.312 0.324 0.335 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.799 0.369 0.268 0.180 0.128 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 1 0.24175189 0.07372040 0.00000000 0.30816486 2 971182 1 0.11703591 0.05820120 0.00000000 0.28780958 3 971191 1 0.16570400 0.02242683 0.00000000 0.25720319 4 971192 1 0.17928332 0.00854591 0.00000000 0.15545404 5 971201 1 0.12570782 0.05523825 0.00000000 0.19655998 6 971202 1 0.21201806 0.04267329 0.00000000 0.27391714 7 971211 1 0.13256481 0.00408740 0.00000000 0.19012362 8 971212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039957 0.33011478 9 971221 1 0.31189024 0.06445902 0.00000000 0.25064501 10 971222 1 0.12648486 0.00676004 0.00000000 0.20772134 11 971231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039684 0.32700858 12 971232 1 0.34312022 0.07094309 0.00000000 0.24908426 13 971241 1 0.35852921 0.05614251 0.00000000 0.27917802 14 971242 1 0.27053922 0.03441858 0.00000000 0.27690116 15 971251 1 0.09958360 0.04391868 0.00000000 0.29349172 16 971252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000678 0.28513700 17 971261 1 0.14270346 0.01336419 0.00000000 0.25730637 18 971262 1 0.17718160 0.00991648 0.00000000 0.21774751 19 971271 1 0.14595018 0.09619273 0.00000000 0.27581671 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 1 0.09401554 0.03102817 0.00000000 0.24705249 21 971281 1 0.14601906 0.04194897 0.00000000 0.25303102 22 971282 1 0.23764469 0.03937339 0.00000000 0.24420902 23 971291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000881 0.30050710 24 971292 1 0.23027581 0.04313782 0.00000000 0.29080307 25 971301 1 0.13816473 0.02574816 0.00000000 0.20268452 26 971302 1 0.16380502 0.03276812 0.00000000 0.21832657 27 971311 1 0.17557856 0.04931880 0.00000000 0.27878338 28 971312 1 0.16029350 0.05900466 0.00000000 0.26030794 29 971321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040932 0.32962584 30 971322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045374 0.35801479 31 971331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024464 0.31353447 32 971332 1 0.12235249 0.00821137 0.00000000 0.20141056 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.142 0.943 4.001 0.093 0.474 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.101 0.341 3.674 0.072 0.488 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.080 0.260 3.785 0.083 0.093 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.126 0.819 4.368 0.109 0.269 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.114 0.312 2.816 0.105 0.364 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.104 0.169 4.550 0.087 0.385 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.093 0.698 4.305 0.091 0.181 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.109 1.099 6.035 0.088 0.350 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.072 -0.089 3.067 0.067 0.301 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.115 4.089 34.815 0.073 0.261 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.072 0.879 6.484 0.066 0.222 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.090 0.084 3.656 0.067 0.512 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.093 0.199 3.808 0.082 0.343 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.093 0.387 3.766 0.077 0.343 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.097 0.051 3.018 0.068 0.574 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.096 0.157 2.627 0.066 0.592 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.123 1.277 7.062 0.093 0.340 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.136 1.596 8.676 0.086 0.549 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.099 0.766 3.833 0.074 0.492 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.074 -0.117 4.014 0.069 0.244 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.088 0.176 3.460 0.075 0.350 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.117 1.007 5.485 0.084 0.461 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.120 0.568 3.076 0.113 0.182 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.113 1.703 12.448 0.085 0.267 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.079 0.304 3.878 0.075 0.195 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.095 0.080 2.958 0.069 0.582 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.099 0.805 6.733 0.072 0.304 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.087 -0.005 3.235 0.080 0.278 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.999 0.097 0.089 2.916 0.078 0.483 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.122 1.262 6.441 0.080 0.563 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.096 0.570 6.639 0.082 0.342 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.099 1.278 10.281 0.082 0.323 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.101 0.680 5.810 0.081 0.366 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.018 0.800 5.764 0.012 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.098 0.478 3.939 0.080 0.343 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.023 0.812 3.115 0.015 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.999 0.072 -0.117 2.627 0.066 0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.091 0.163 3.347 0.072 0.268 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.115 0.975 6.463 0.087 0.485 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.142 4.089 34.815 0.113 0.592 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 971182 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 971191 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 971192 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 971201 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 971202 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 971222 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 971231 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 971232 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 971241 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 971242 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 971251 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 971252 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 971261 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 971262 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 971271 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 971281 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 971282 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 971301 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 971302 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 971311 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 971312 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 971321 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 971322 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 971331 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 971332 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.999 0.128 0.752 3.975 0.093 0.368 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.999 0.085 0.346 4.522 0.072 0.280 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.076 0.288 4.343 0.083 0.011 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.999 0.118 1.014 5.076 0.110 0.155 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.999 0.102 0.245 2.736 0.105 0.204 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.101 0.150 4.567 0.087 0.350 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.090 0.685 4.375 0.091 0.132 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.105 1.371 7.146 0.088 0.290 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.064 -0.013 3.477 0.067 0.132 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.110 4.360 38.128 0.073 0.207 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.069 0.760 6.039 0.066 0.149 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.081 0.474 5.169 0.067 0.391 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.083 0.494 4.916 0.082 0.168 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.999 0.080 0.606 5.173 0.078 0.108 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.999 0.085 0.224 3.619 0.068 0.447 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.999 0.077 0.222 2.907 0.066 0.370 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.120 1.263 6.691 0.093 0.312 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.999 0.120 1.735 9.152 0.086 0.442 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.089 0.743 4.811 0.074 0.382 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.072 -0.092 4.109 0.069 0.207 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.084 0.015 3.699 0.075 0.300 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.113 1.281 6.511 0.084 0.415 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.114 0.475 3.050 0.113 0.127 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.106 2.690 20.967 0.085 0.134 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.076 0.195 3.858 0.075 0.150 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.999 0.071 0.400 3.450 0.069 0.305 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.095 1.111 8.107 0.072 0.240 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.084 -0.032 3.277 0.080 0.225 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.083 0.260 3.493 0.078 0.268 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.999 0.104 1.425 7.212 0.080 0.414 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.091 1.416 12.486 0.082 0.238 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.095 1.337 11.206 0.082 0.265 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.093 0.819 6.820 0.081 0.256 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.017 0.896 6.756 0.012 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.090 0.550 4.689 0.080 0.253 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.025 1.037 3.260 0.015 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.999 0.064 -0.092 2.736 0.066 0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.999 0.080 0.234 3.659 0.072 0.152 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.106 1.272 6.919 0.087 0.359 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.128 4.360 38.128 0.113 0.447 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.245 0.105 0.005 -0.044 3.525 -0.080 0.623 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.080 SERIES 971232 AND 971282 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.623 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.472 0.427 0.215 0.230 0.271 0.251 0.275 0.220 0.288 0.343 SDEV 0.130 0.124 0.157 0.192 0.176 0.179 0.165 0.171 0.174 0.158 SERR 0.053 0.032 0.021 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.857 0.900 0.838 0.877 0.909 0.909 0.923 0.900 0.928 0.943 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.001 0.081 1.113 6.685 0.073 0.249 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.154 0.071 -0.001 119 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.53 1.00 1.09 1.62 7.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.248 0.217 0.229 0.198 0.192 0.001 0.140 0.141 0.134 0.081 PACF 0.248 0.166 0.157 0.100 0.087 -0.137 0.088 0.071 0.073 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.113 0.120 0.125 0.130 0.134 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.141 0.143 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 9 0.192 0.149 0.116 0.158 0.089 0.098 -0.169 0.063 0.071 0.105 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.089 0.090 0.120 0.015 0.023 -0.107 -0.048 0.034 -0.047 0.014 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.089 2 0.081 0.082 3 0.073 0.074 0.107 4 0.074 0.074 0.107 -0.010 5 0.074 0.074 0.107 -0.010 0.004 6 0.074 0.073 0.120 -0.001 0.013 -0.125 7 0.070 0.073 0.120 0.003 0.016 -0.123 -0.035 8 0.072 0.080 0.119 0.003 0.009 -0.127 -0.039 0.057 9 0.073 0.079 0.117 0.003 0.009 -0.124 -0.038 0.059 -0.020 10 0.074 0.078 0.118 0.006 0.009 -0.125 -0.040 0.057 -0.022 0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1874.59 1874.12 1874.00 1872.44 1874.41 1876.40 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1873.46 1875.08 1876.05 1877.92 1879.73 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.073 0.074 0.107 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.58 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.65 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.073 0.079 0.118 0.022 0.019 0.016 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.0009 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 971181 3 0.260 0.192 0.289 0.174 2 971182 3 0.111 0.225 0.120 0.106 3 971191 3 0.051 0.002 0.038 0.204 4 971192 3 0.077 0.120 0.114 0.114 5 971201 3 0.050 0.195 0.078 -0.057 6 971202 3 0.166 0.333 0.085 -0.056 7 971211 3 0.064 0.095 0.096 0.182 8 971212 3 0.128 0.230 0.164 0.077 9 971221 3 0.029 0.119 0.085 0.032 10 971222 3 0.076 0.172 0.113 0.074 11 971231 3 0.033 0.140 0.044 0.057 12 971232 3 0.193 0.300 0.146 0.114 13 971241 3 0.060 0.150 0.057 0.148 14 971242 3 0.038 0.088 0.066 0.143 15 971251 3 0.350 0.362 -0.064 0.408 16 971252 3 0.155 0.322 0.089 0.069 17 971261 3 0.163 0.211 0.211 0.114 18 971262 3 0.276 0.292 0.285 0.056 19 971271 3 0.159 0.336 0.103 0.029 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 971272 3 0.057 0.182 0.090 0.054 21 971281 3 0.117 0.304 -0.033 0.132 22 971282 3 0.229 0.366 0.154 -0.051 23 971291 3 0.112 0.068 0.298 0.069 24 971292 3 0.089 0.083 0.172 0.143 25 971301 3 0.064 0.126 0.135 0.032 26 971302 3 0.101 0.315 -0.037 0.069 27 971311 3 0.099 0.244 -0.037 0.148 28 971312 3 0.113 0.174 0.147 0.092 29 971321 3 0.119 0.204 0.125 0.150 30 971322 3 0.306 0.261 0.165 0.263 31 971331 3 0.089 0.210 0.054 0.128 32 971332 3 0.111 0.207 0.145 0.092 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.126 0.207 0.109 0.103 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.082 0.094 0.088 0.090 MEDIAN 3 0.111 0.206 0.108 0.099 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.097 0.163 0.089 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.029 0.002 -0.064 -0.057 LOWER HINGE 3 0.064 0.133 0.062 0.056 UPPER HINGE 3 0.161 0.296 0.151 0.145 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.350 0.366 0.298 0.408 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.110 0.793 6.059 0.103 0.013 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.080 0.549 6.455 0.080 -0.005 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.075 0.349 4.543 0.085 -0.018 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.114 1.046 5.717 0.118 -0.018 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.100 0.226 2.893 0.113 -0.001 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.094 0.213 5.046 0.102 -0.013 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.087 0.611 4.235 0.097 -0.005 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.097 1.141 6.423 0.100 -0.016 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.064 -0.017 3.399 0.071 -0.003 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.107 5.005 45.658 0.079 0.008 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.068 0.773 6.267 0.072 0.003 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.073 0.375 5.173 0.078 0.002 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.081 0.433 4.677 0.088 -0.014 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.078 0.634 5.780 0.081 -0.002 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.069 0.410 3.918 0.078 -0.050 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.071 0.405 3.459 0.078 -0.002 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.110 1.580 8.782 0.103 0.006 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.103 1.754 11.210 0.100 -0.005 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.082 0.746 5.327 0.089 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.070 -0.212 3.661 0.076 0.000 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.079 -0.062 3.564 0.085 0.004 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.102 1.133 7.522 0.100 0.010 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.108 0.610 4.225 0.114 -0.001 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.102 3.140 25.656 0.088 -0.020 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.075 0.104 3.757 0.081 -0.005 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.068 0.275 3.397 0.079 0.001 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.091 1.027 7.078 0.083 0.020 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.080 -0.002 2.883 0.087 0.016 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.078 0.270 3.415 0.087 -0.007 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.086 1.249 7.041 0.091 -0.061 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.087 1.311 12.449 0.091 -0.015 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.089 1.370 13.594 0.092 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.087 0.851 7.602 0.090 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.015 1.008 8.221 0.012 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.084 0.610 5.250 0.087 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.026 0.865 3.351 0.020 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.064 -0.212 2.883 0.071 -0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.075 0.273 3.709 0.080 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.101 1.137 7.060 0.100 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.114 5.005 45.658 0.118 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.275 0.094 0.004 0.042 3.469 0.022 0.633 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.022 SERIES 971251 AND 971302 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.633 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.517 0.465 0.231 0.274 0.316 0.301 0.302 0.237 0.316 0.374 SDEV 0.112 0.101 0.143 0.180 0.147 0.133 0.131 0.146 0.143 0.130 SERR 0.046 0.026 0.019 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.006 EPS 0.878 0.913 0.851 0.900 0.925 0.927 0.932 0.909 0.937 0.950 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.997 0.062 0.835 5.762 0.070 -0.106 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.289 0.170 -0.105 122 190 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.69 1.00 1.09 1.78 15.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.105 -0.039 -0.034 0.019 0.067 -0.174 0.037 0.072 0.047 -0.006 PACF -0.105 -0.051 -0.044 0.008 0.067 -0.162 0.009 0.070 0.051 0.014 95% C.L. 0.113 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 -0.109 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.007 0.000 0.006 0.051 -0.160 0.033 0.077 0.054 0.013 PACF 0.003 0.007 0.000 0.006 0.051 -0.161 0.035 0.081 0.052 0.010 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.003 0.007 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.997 0.063 0.718 5.209 0.064 0.097 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.097 0.104 0.111 0.030 0.073 -0.120 0.045 0.086 0.057 0.032 PACF 0.097 0.096 0.094 0.003 0.052 -0.147 0.056 0.093 0.062 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.113 0.114 0.115 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.030 0.080 0.092 0.101 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES