RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 971 1 Krasnovishersk DENSITY_LATE PCOB - 971 2 Russia Black Spuce 140 6023-5707 1680 1991 - 971 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 971181 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1966 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 971192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 971212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1766 1766 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 971252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1794 1794 / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 971262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 971271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1854 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 971291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1975 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 971321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 971322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 7.522 0.901 -0.373 2.728 0.084 0.606 2 971182 1780 1991 212 7.631 0.641 -0.131 3.180 0.069 0.468 3 971191 1769 1991 223 7.451 1.121 -0.427 2.320 0.087 0.741 4 971192 1742 1991 250 7.195 0.808 -0.195 2.784 0.098 0.389 5 971201 1830 1981 152 7.226 0.769 -0.846 3.934 0.084 0.518 6 971202 1796 1981 186 7.238 0.633 -0.508 3.105 0.082 0.258 7 971211 1739 1991 253 6.671 0.995 -0.119 2.244 0.100 0.651 8 971212 1716 1991 276 6.738 0.853 0.146 2.336 0.094 0.536 9 971221 1797 1991 195 7.314 0.602 -0.239 3.059 0.081 0.251 10 971222 1816 1991 176 7.552 0.607 -0.573 3.068 0.070 0.356 11 971231 1790 1991 202 7.240 0.949 -0.764 3.102 0.092 0.650 12 971232 1766 1991 226 6.671 1.029 -0.639 2.882 0.094 0.728 13 971241 1763 1991 229 7.448 0.936 -1.289 4.718 0.074 0.718 14 971242 1762 1991 230 7.348 0.956 -1.048 4.068 0.079 0.716 15 971251 1768 1991 224 7.015 0.611 -0.263 3.034 0.086 0.254 16 971252 1785 1991 207 6.745 0.747 -0.389 2.836 0.084 0.565 17 971261 1749 1991 243 6.930 0.729 -0.622 3.147 0.073 0.596 18 971262 1747 1991 245 6.861 0.682 -0.339 2.928 0.075 0.550 19 971271 1827 1991 165 7.214 0.580 -0.481 3.505 0.065 0.455 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 7.357 0.601 -0.835 4.301 0.069 0.423 21 971281 1767 1991 225 6.440 0.938 -0.305 2.546 0.079 0.771 22 971282 1782 1991 210 6.351 0.847 -0.051 3.048 0.075 0.751 23 971291 1827 1991 165 6.716 0.663 -0.499 3.150 0.082 0.409 24 971292 1796 1991 196 6.786 0.925 -0.505 2.671 0.089 0.642 25 971301 1874 1991 118 6.814 0.555 0.064 2.930 0.063 0.519 26 971302 1874 1991 118 7.091 0.604 -0.488 2.760 0.058 0.630 27 971311 1863 1991 129 7.386 0.569 -0.670 3.341 0.067 0.384 28 971312 1851 1991 141 7.253 0.590 -0.714 3.881 0.075 0.297 29 971321 1695 1991 297 7.433 0.597 -0.666 3.622 0.064 0.494 30 971322 1680 1991 312 7.326 0.781 -0.722 3.483 0.077 0.597 31 971331 1703 1991 289 7.164 0.776 -0.748 3.500 0.075 0.636 32 971332 1704 1991 288 6.822 0.779 -0.955 3.645 0.083 0.579 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1680 TO 1991 312 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 7.092 0.762 -0.506 3.183 0.079 0.536 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.338 0.160 0.322 0.572 0.010 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 7.204 0.758 -0.502 3.085 0.079 0.558 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.552 0.308 0.434 0.693 0.013 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 118 6.351 0.555 -1.289 2.244 0.058 0.251 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 6.800 0.605 -0.718 2.810 0.072 0.416 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 7.352 0.913 -0.284 3.503 0.085 0.646 MAXIMUM VALUE 310 7.631 1.121 0.146 4.718 0.100 0.771 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.266 0.210 0.009 -0.285 2.968 -0.377 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.377 SERIES 971191 AND 971281 223 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 971281 AND 971282 210 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.298 0.302 0.221 0.145 0.289 0.315 0.294 0.268 0.310 0.259 SDEV 0.108 0.147 0.171 0.222 0.201 0.209 0.187 0.224 0.226 0.215 SERR 0.044 0.038 0.023 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.741 0.840 0.844 0.802 0.916 0.932 0.930 0.921 0.935 0.917 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 7.185 0.432 -0.127 3.285 0.048 0.441 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.493 -0.322 2.982 76 236 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.26 1.01 1.07 1.34 35.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 211. 74. 118. 170. 244. 312. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.439 0.444 0.327 0.312 0.254 0.281 0.262 0.339 0.292 0.302 PACF 0.439 0.311 0.077 0.081 0.032 0.096 0.068 0.162 0.050 0.045 95% C.L. 0.113 0.133 0.151 0.160 0.168 0.172 0.178 0.183 0.191 0.197 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.294 0.261 0.264 0.068 0.099 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00295740 7.22356319 2 971182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00141864 7.47985840 3 971191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01069306 6.25381184 4 971192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00172073 6.97913933 5 971201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00164363 7.35205364 6 971202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021888 7.21749163 7 971211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00580377 5.93371153 8 971212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00407936 6.17077017 9 971221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00211811 7.52198505 10 971222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00525567 8.01671791 11 971231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00832057 8.08404350 12 971232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00638352 7.39541483 13 971241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00665449 8.21338844 14 971242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00649625 8.09827423 15 971251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028596 7.04717064 16 971252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00371956 7.13461018 17 971261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193899 6.69389629 18 971262 1 1.22080624 0.05516908 0.00000000 6.76890469 19 971271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192976 7.03993177 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00389699 7.62188387 21 971281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01088270 7.66930103 22 971282 1 7.03117132 0.00200486 0.00000000 0.61846918 23 971291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00411329 7.05763865 24 971292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01034723 7.80496693 25 971301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265756 6.97244692 26 971302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01372103 7.90758801 27 971311 1 6.47453594 0.00130430 0.00000000 1.43122208 28 971312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00506473 7.61307096 29 971321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00202390 7.73335457 30 971322 1 0.66240555 0.04590787 0.00000000 7.28384686 31 971331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00545987 7.95579958 32 971332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00443603 7.46277666 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.118 -0.488 2.633 0.083 0.595 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.083 -0.234 3.137 0.068 0.452 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.119 -0.194 2.839 0.087 0.573 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.110 -0.357 2.992 0.098 0.369 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.106 -0.709 3.746 0.083 0.515 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.087 -0.514 3.119 0.082 0.257 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.136 -0.100 2.659 0.099 0.573 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.117 0.183 2.819 0.094 0.467 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.081 -0.154 2.978 0.080 0.215 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.073 -0.403 3.081 0.070 0.194 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.115 -0.545 2.969 0.092 0.507 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.144 -0.358 2.792 0.094 0.673 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.115 -0.863 4.304 0.074 0.642 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.120 -0.553 3.748 0.079 0.648 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.087 -0.228 3.032 0.086 0.252 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.106 -0.121 2.724 0.083 0.520 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.104 -0.429 3.133 0.073 0.581 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.094 -0.551 3.082 0.075 0.482 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.079 -0.514 3.504 0.064 0.445 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.079 -0.972 5.048 0.068 0.378 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.098 -0.717 3.581 0.079 0.476 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.077 -0.666 4.544 0.075 0.225 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.094 -0.320 3.110 0.081 0.360 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.108 -0.113 3.363 0.089 0.416 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.080 0.009 3.066 0.063 0.500 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.055 -0.125 2.911 0.058 0.121 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.068 0.025 4.220 0.066 0.150 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.077 -0.354 3.713 0.075 0.201 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.077 -0.412 3.164 0.064 0.442 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.106 -0.662 3.492 0.077 0.586 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.090 -0.401 4.128 0.075 0.435 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.103 -0.642 3.620 0.083 0.461 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.097 -0.390 3.352 0.079 0.428 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.020 0.268 0.585 0.010 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.096 -0.402 3.126 0.079 0.457 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.033 0.378 0.693 0.013 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.055 -0.972 2.633 0.058 0.121 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.080 -0.552 2.974 0.071 0.308 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.113 -0.174 3.666 0.084 0.547 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.144 0.183 5.048 0.099 0.673 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 971182 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 971191 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 971192 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 971201 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 971202 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 971222 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 971231 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 971232 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 971241 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 971242 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 971251 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 971252 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 971261 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 971262 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 971271 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 971281 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 971282 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 971301 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 971302 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 971311 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 971312 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 971321 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 971322 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 971331 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 971332 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.114 -0.467 2.756 0.083 0.571 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.074 -0.375 3.459 0.068 0.315 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.999 0.100 0.190 4.038 0.087 0.388 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.104 -0.309 3.016 0.098 0.289 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.999 0.081 -0.655 4.099 0.083 0.166 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.082 -0.621 3.334 0.082 0.166 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.998 0.111 0.034 2.870 0.099 0.366 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.999 0.098 -0.044 3.065 0.094 0.243 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.074 -0.363 3.149 0.080 0.064 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.071 -0.326 3.144 0.070 0.150 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.109 -0.575 3.315 0.092 0.445 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.998 0.125 -0.168 3.578 0.094 0.559 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.999 0.102 -0.871 4.922 0.074 0.540 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.999 0.102 -0.919 4.649 0.079 0.506 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.085 -0.249 3.099 0.086 0.211 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.087 -0.208 3.179 0.083 0.285 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.099 -0.339 3.293 0.073 0.537 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.092 -0.484 3.012 0.075 0.450 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.068 -0.751 4.305 0.064 0.230 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.076 -0.986 5.126 0.068 0.330 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.095 -0.665 3.539 0.079 0.439 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.075 -0.733 4.801 0.075 0.176 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.081 -0.379 3.900 0.081 0.130 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.999 0.094 -0.430 4.212 0.089 0.230 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.064 0.020 3.273 0.063 0.188 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.052 -0.034 3.215 0.058 0.032 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.066 -0.136 4.062 0.066 0.102 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.073 -0.382 3.857 0.075 0.102 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.068 -0.338 3.524 0.064 0.266 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.999 0.095 -0.709 3.550 0.077 0.490 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.084 -0.282 4.914 0.075 0.342 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.097 -0.531 4.045 0.083 0.386 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.087 -0.409 3.697 0.079 0.303 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.017 0.290 0.660 0.010 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.086 -0.377 3.532 0.079 0.287 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.026 0.409 0.916 0.013 0.271 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.998 0.052 -0.986 2.756 0.058 0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.999 0.074 -0.638 3.164 0.071 0.171 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.100 -0.229 4.081 0.084 0.442 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.125 0.190 5.126 0.099 0.571 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.249 0.129 0.006 0.280 3.313 -0.051 0.771 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.051 SERIES 971242 AND 971312 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.771 SERIES 971241 AND 971242 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.290 0.305 0.201 0.135 0.294 0.328 0.301 0.305 0.295 0.263 SDEV 0.148 0.137 0.181 0.214 0.183 0.181 0.171 0.181 0.196 0.199 SERR 0.061 0.035 0.024 0.016 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.734 0.842 0.827 0.787 0.917 0.935 0.931 0.934 0.931 0.919 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.002 0.047 -0.443 3.543 0.047 0.118 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.170 -0.102 0.169 110 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.40 1.00 1.04 1.44 76.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.117 0.139 0.033 0.047 -0.036 -0.012 -0.018 0.054 -0.001 0.018 PACF 0.117 0.126 0.004 0.026 -0.049 -0.013 -0.006 0.062 -0.006 0.004 95% C.L. 0.113 0.115 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.030 0.103 0.127 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.110 0.089 0.051 0.073 0.009 -0.019 0.007 0.092 0.019 -0.014 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.110 2 0.102 0.077 3 0.099 0.074 0.034 4 0.097 0.070 0.029 0.059 5 0.098 0.070 0.029 0.060 -0.011 6 0.097 0.072 0.030 0.062 -0.008 -0.032 7 0.098 0.072 0.030 0.062 -0.009 -0.032 0.008 8 0.097 0.075 0.031 0.056 -0.011 -0.039 -0.001 0.092 9 0.097 0.075 0.031 0.056 -0.012 -0.039 -0.002 0.092 0.003 10 0.097 0.077 0.031 0.055 -0.012 -0.038 -0.001 0.094 0.006 -0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1888.81 1887.00 1887.13 1888.76 1889.68 1891.64 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1893.33 1895.31 1894.64 1896.64 1898.38 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.110 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.21 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.110 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 971181 1 0.351 0.579 2 971182 1 0.101 0.316 3 971191 1 0.181 0.392 4 971192 1 0.101 0.289 5 971201 1 0.035 0.167 6 971202 1 0.061 0.167 7 971211 1 0.153 0.366 8 971212 1 0.108 0.244 9 971221 1 0.042 0.065 10 971222 1 0.057 0.151 11 971231 1 0.221 0.448 12 971232 1 0.365 0.562 13 971241 1 0.316 0.542 14 971242 1 0.289 0.506 15 971251 1 0.058 0.211 16 971252 1 0.084 0.286 17 971261 1 0.351 0.538 18 971262 1 0.236 0.459 19 971271 1 0.054 0.230 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 971272 1 0.110 0.331 21 971281 1 0.226 0.439 22 971282 1 0.039 0.176 23 971291 1 0.051 0.131 24 971292 1 0.088 0.230 25 971301 1 0.043 0.192 26 971302 1 0.027 0.033 27 971311 1 0.012 0.106 28 971312 1 0.013 0.104 29 971321 1 0.089 0.266 30 971322 1 0.287 0.490 31 971331 1 0.121 0.343 32 971332 1 0.174 0.389 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.139 0.305 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.158 MEDIAN 1 0.101 0.287 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.171 0.272 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.012 0.033 LOWER HINGE 1 0.052 0.171 UPPER HINGE 1 0.224 0.443 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.365 0.579 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.093 -0.228 3.358 0.106 -0.086 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.070 -0.299 3.831 0.079 -0.013 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.092 0.215 4.054 0.104 -0.073 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.100 -0.333 3.164 0.114 -0.041 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.080 -0.659 4.264 0.091 -0.014 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.081 -0.684 3.590 0.089 -0.031 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.103 -0.074 3.379 0.120 -0.053 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.095 -0.164 3.445 0.108 -0.056 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.074 -0.363 3.263 0.083 -0.012 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.070 -0.270 3.463 0.075 -0.028 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.097 -0.805 3.776 0.113 -0.069 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.103 -0.223 3.125 0.119 -0.151 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.086 -0.807 5.418 0.096 -0.097 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.088 -0.918 4.638 0.103 -0.105 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.083 -0.274 3.218 0.095 -0.024 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.084 -0.306 3.183 0.096 -0.015 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.084 0.084 3.910 0.094 -0.156 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.081 -0.085 3.335 0.092 -0.090 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.066 -0.829 4.898 0.072 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.072 -0.766 3.688 0.078 0.011 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.085 -0.742 4.021 0.098 -0.089 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.074 -0.800 4.926 0.081 -0.016 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.080 -0.523 4.281 0.088 -0.023 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.091 -0.489 4.910 0.101 -0.044 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.063 -0.108 3.481 0.070 -0.015 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.052 -0.049 3.221 0.058 0.005 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.065 -0.076 3.945 0.069 0.006 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.073 -0.314 3.632 0.079 -0.005 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.066 -0.319 3.809 0.074 -0.036 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.083 -0.556 3.158 0.099 -0.121 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.078 -0.332 4.072 0.088 -0.021 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.089 -0.512 3.370 0.102 -0.061 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.081 -0.394 3.807 0.092 -0.048 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.012 0.296 0.609 0.015 0.045 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.082 -0.325 3.660 0.093 -0.034 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.018 0.478 0.717 0.024 0.065 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.052 -0.918 3.125 0.058 -0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.072 -0.672 3.346 0.079 -0.080 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.090 -0.193 4.063 0.103 -0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.103 0.215 5.418 0.120 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.292 0.120 0.005 0.078 3.246 -0.019 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.019 SERIES 971252 AND 971312 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 971241 AND 971242 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.361 0.383 0.231 0.146 0.369 0.395 0.299 0.339 0.358 0.310 SDEV 0.130 0.100 0.140 0.181 0.152 0.144 0.165 0.161 0.176 0.186 SERR 0.053 0.026 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.792 0.882 0.851 0.803 0.940 0.951 0.931 0.942 0.947 0.934 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.002 0.048 -0.512 4.326 0.057 -0.249 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.129 -0.069 0.130 92 220 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.36 1.00 1.08 1.44 83.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.248 0.093 -0.041 0.049 -0.058 0.004 -0.055 0.079 -0.035 0.032 PACF -0.248 0.033 -0.012 0.036 -0.038 -0.025 -0.057 0.056 0.006 0.017 95% C.L. 0.113 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.063 -0.248 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.008 0.028 -0.009 0.030 -0.051 -0.026 -0.040 0.066 -0.010 0.026 PACF 0.008 0.028 -0.010 0.029 -0.051 -0.026 -0.037 0.066 -0.007 0.021 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.002 0.047 -0.510 3.765 0.047 0.122 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.121 0.041 -0.002 0.023 -0.051 -0.034 -0.037 0.060 -0.001 0.022 PACF 0.121 0.026 -0.010 0.024 -0.057 -0.023 -0.026 0.069 -0.012 0.018 95% C.L. 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 0.121 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES