RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 971 1 Krasnovishersk WIDTH_RING PCOB - 971 2 Russia Black Spuce 140 6023-5707 1680 1991 - 971 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 971182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1789 1793 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 971192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 971252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1794 1794 / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 971262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 971271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1854 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 971321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 971322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.571 0.335 1.599 5.588 0.263 0.730 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.579 0.241 0.694 3.425 0.215 0.748 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.683 0.430 0.533 2.998 0.239 0.836 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.519 0.294 1.168 4.700 0.214 0.846 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.851 0.392 0.850 4.026 0.255 0.717 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.695 0.505 1.272 4.111 0.270 0.861 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.475 0.345 0.938 3.223 0.236 0.892 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.463 0.362 1.170 4.104 0.245 0.889 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.084 0.483 0.452 2.576 0.189 0.861 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.981 0.407 1.031 4.576 0.197 0.791 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.674 0.307 1.082 3.885 0.192 0.850 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.661 0.293 1.098 3.860 0.177 0.861 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.597 0.371 1.071 3.582 0.243 0.884 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.638 0.339 0.739 3.176 0.248 0.822 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.633 0.395 1.484 4.869 0.202 0.914 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.631 0.453 2.075 7.109 0.203 0.881 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.622 0.417 1.476 6.252 0.239 0.901 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.720 0.418 1.069 4.308 0.265 0.857 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.996 0.507 0.432 3.122 0.281 0.715 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.022 0.452 1.338 5.204 0.234 0.741 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.758 0.421 1.270 4.491 0.212 0.875 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.857 0.413 0.959 3.560 0.220 0.826 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.877 0.750 1.233 4.804 0.289 0.931 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.707 0.686 2.080 7.498 0.258 0.934 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.153 0.656 0.385 2.663 0.199 0.859 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.262 0.724 0.628 2.778 0.183 0.878 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.428 0.638 1.217 5.904 0.229 0.745 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.443 0.648 -0.044 2.340 0.198 0.842 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.576 0.347 1.781 9.254 0.234 0.810 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.536 0.457 3.146 21.407 0.229 0.842 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.480 0.210 1.217 4.418 0.213 0.741 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.522 0.293 2.349 11.937 0.202 0.776 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1680 TO 1991 312 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.772 0.437 1.181 5.180 0.227 0.833 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.270 0.140 0.629 3.584 0.030 0.064 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.679 0.415 1.133 4.209 0.229 0.848 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.352 0.152 0.613 2.072 0.044 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.463 0.210 -0.044 2.340 0.177 0.715 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.578 0.342 0.794 3.324 0.202 0.784 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 0.929 0.494 1.407 5.396 0.246 0.879 MAXIMUM VALUE 310 1.443 0.750 3.146 21.407 0.289 0.934 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.258 0.339 0.015 -0.614 3.030 -0.783 0.960 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.783 SERIES 971291 AND 971301 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.960 SERIES 971211 AND 971212 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.326 0.410 0.266 0.259 0.629 0.340 0.263 0.227 0.321 0.398 SDEV 0.374 0.242 0.260 0.314 0.175 0.295 0.385 0.311 0.292 0.283 SERR 0.153 0.062 0.035 0.023 0.011 0.016 0.018 0.014 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.765 0.894 0.873 0.893 0.978 0.938 0.919 0.904 0.938 0.954 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.585 0.265 0.634 2.778 0.167 0.877 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.832 0.548 -0.034 138 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.93 1.00 1.13 2.07 6.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 211. 74. 118. 170. 244. 312. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.874 0.813 0.782 0.755 0.726 0.683 0.681 0.674 0.660 0.642 PACF 0.874 0.207 0.169 0.088 0.041 -0.046 0.145 0.062 0.037 0.001 95% C.L. 0.113 0.180 0.222 0.255 0.282 0.305 0.324 0.342 0.359 0.374 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.788 0.646 0.071 0.123 0.086 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035637 0.53395241 2 971182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183364 0.37984332 3 971191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00553285 0.06350502 4 971192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264048 0.18838963 5 971201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00150770 0.73571366 6 971202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00178700 0.52764660 7 971211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00363015 0.01371353 8 971212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00304821 0.04039499 9 971221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00449941 0.64280146 10 971222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00258918 0.75148249 11 971231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105469 0.78145707 12 971232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030152 0.62630796 13 971241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067341 0.67477822 14 971242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080451 0.54503512 15 971251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00176423 0.83146662 16 971252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00191603 0.83437866 17 971261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00217712 0.35628438 18 971262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00295178 0.35489604 19 971271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00448809 0.62223202 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00684543 0.55628854 21 971281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027907 0.78922343 22 971282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00171171 1.03710961 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00390751 1.09233904 25 971301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01690263 0.14717513 26 971302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01753991 0.21790090 27 971311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01051219 0.74515748 28 971312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01112847 0.65299898 29 971321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00230575 0.23269667 30 971322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00299100 0.06760477 31 971331 1 0.55893582 0.06830410 0.00000000 0.45260635 32 971332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003830 0.51665360 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.592 1.625 5.465 0.262 0.724 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.999 0.383 1.035 3.699 0.214 0.673 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.008 0.427 1.927 9.604 0.239 0.598 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.033 0.538 1.902 7.928 0.216 0.761 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.999 0.473 1.160 4.622 0.254 0.725 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.992 0.734 1.468 4.627 0.269 0.864 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.398 2.171 6.000 45.191 0.237 0.734 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.361 1.956 4.110 21.058 0.246 0.852 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.995 0.383 0.491 2.730 0.188 0.785 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.999 0.385 0.713 3.527 0.195 0.747 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.453 1.330 5.055 0.191 0.843 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.445 1.110 3.877 0.176 0.858 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.999 0.607 1.017 3.534 0.242 0.872 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.999 0.524 0.704 3.076 0.246 0.812 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.996 0.569 1.425 4.934 0.201 0.896 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.991 0.649 2.012 7.000 0.208 0.900 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.984 0.651 1.976 8.312 0.238 0.880 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.988 0.512 1.826 7.940 0.264 0.786 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.989 0.482 0.579 2.971 0.280 0.688 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.009 0.387 1.842 6.878 0.233 0.598 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.550 1.250 4.513 0.211 0.869 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.997 0.452 0.898 3.595 0.219 0.805 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.068 0.591 2.090 8.959 0.287 0.589 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.956 0.816 1.999 6.913 0.256 0.919 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.979 0.244 0.727 3.578 0.195 0.368 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.993 0.304 1.244 5.215 0.182 0.594 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.003 0.370 1.286 5.736 0.226 0.598 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.985 0.364 0.786 3.495 0.197 0.729 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.018 0.550 2.136 9.930 0.236 0.679 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.235 1.136 2.194 7.959 0.227 0.888 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.404 1.064 4.170 0.212 0.724 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.563 2.386 12.255 0.202 0.772 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.030 0.615 1.635 7.448 0.226 0.754 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.102 0.416 1.071 7.771 0.029 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.999 0.518 1.378 5.135 0.227 0.766 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.013 0.203 0.962 4.302 0.045 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.956 0.244 0.491 2.730 0.176 0.368 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.993 0.396 1.026 3.647 0.201 0.684 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.005 0.599 1.988 7.949 0.246 0.861 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.398 2.171 6.000 45.191 0.287 0.919 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 971182 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 971191 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 971192 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 971201 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 971202 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 971222 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 971231 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 971232 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 971241 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 971242 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 971251 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 971252 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 971261 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 971262 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 971271 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 971281 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 971282 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 971301 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 971302 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 971311 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 971312 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 971321 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 971322 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 971331 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 971332 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.981 0.527 1.631 5.748 0.262 0.667 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.990 0.338 1.028 3.846 0.215 0.595 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.986 0.342 1.182 5.259 0.238 0.524 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.986 0.392 1.038 3.878 0.215 0.713 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.981 0.300 0.747 3.866 0.253 0.439 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.071 0.792 5.319 38.685 0.269 0.686 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.020 0.476 1.038 5.251 0.237 0.707 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.053 0.527 0.688 3.165 0.245 0.778 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.992 0.340 0.626 3.395 0.188 0.720 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.988 0.336 0.817 3.668 0.195 0.669 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.978 0.313 1.080 4.881 0.191 0.708 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.983 0.314 0.963 3.711 0.176 0.756 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.972 0.406 1.048 4.446 0.241 0.619 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.973 0.413 0.927 4.043 0.246 0.654 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.969 0.436 1.196 4.458 0.201 0.817 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.989 0.437 2.040 9.786 0.209 0.652 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.967 0.468 2.169 11.763 0.238 0.721 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.985 0.415 1.230 5.189 0.263 0.627 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.981 0.373 0.801 3.275 0.279 0.540 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 0.994 0.309 1.628 6.766 0.233 0.443 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.992 0.374 1.394 6.091 0.210 0.634 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.990 0.344 0.850 3.491 0.219 0.641 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.987 0.392 0.944 4.254 0.287 0.587 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.002 0.434 1.006 4.576 0.255 0.699 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.998 0.230 1.007 4.408 0.195 0.250 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.995 0.280 1.655 7.180 0.181 0.530 27 971311 1863 1991 129 0.998 0.355 1.151 5.289 0.226 0.578 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.994 0.297 0.650 3.219 0.197 0.589 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.979 0.394 2.106 10.339 0.236 0.527 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.955 0.391 1.281 6.968 0.228 0.687 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.984 0.338 0.960 3.796 0.212 0.649 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.975 0.458 2.041 9.621 0.202 0.752 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.990 0.392 1.320 6.385 0.226 0.630 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.022 0.101 0.848 6.302 0.029 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.987 0.382 1.043 4.517 0.227 0.651 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.014 0.098 0.576 2.608 0.045 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.955 0.230 0.626 3.165 0.176 0.250 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.980 0.337 0.935 3.821 0.201 0.583 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 0.994 0.435 1.511 6.429 0.246 0.707 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.071 0.792 5.319 38.685 0.287 0.817 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.276 0.146 0.007 0.219 3.392 -0.119 0.858 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.119 SERIES 971192 AND 971212 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.858 SERIES 971231 AND 971232 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.164 0.375 0.214 0.182 0.368 0.307 0.322 0.247 0.363 0.417 SDEV 0.456 0.219 0.257 0.288 0.331 0.256 0.262 0.250 0.223 0.219 SERR 0.186 0.056 0.035 0.021 0.021 0.014 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.569 0.879 0.838 0.841 0.940 0.929 0.938 0.913 0.948 0.958 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.957 0.232 0.713 3.564 0.164 0.618 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.319 0.195 0.108 125 187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.79 1.00 1.11 1.91 66.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.616 0.443 0.375 0.302 0.238 0.162 0.205 0.219 0.174 0.153 PACF 0.616 0.103 0.108 0.023 0.004 -0.044 0.139 0.058 -0.024 0.005 95% C.L. 0.113 0.150 0.166 0.177 0.183 0.187 0.189 0.192 0.195 0.197 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.394 0.540 0.046 0.107 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.639 0.482 0.437 0.346 0.279 0.199 0.238 0.256 0.259 0.225 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.639 2 0.558 0.126 3 0.539 0.042 0.150 4 0.541 0.043 0.155 -0.010 5 0.541 0.042 0.155 -0.014 0.007 6 0.541 0.041 0.164 -0.011 0.037 -0.055 7 0.549 0.035 0.165 -0.036 0.031 -0.136 0.149 8 0.538 0.046 0.163 -0.033 0.019 -0.139 0.107 0.075 9 0.533 0.038 0.173 -0.034 0.021 -0.151 0.104 0.035 0.075 10 0.535 0.039 0.177 -0.040 0.022 -0.152 0.110 0.036 0.095 -0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2817.50 2656.08 2653.09 2647.99 2649.96 2651.94 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2652.98 2648.01 2648.25 2648.51 2650.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.539 0.042 0.150 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 43.02 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 175.51 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.539 0.333 0.352 0.285 0.218 0.183 0.150 0.122 0.099 0.0813 0.066 0.054 0.044 0.036 0.029 0.024 0.020 0.016 0.013 0.0107 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.0014 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 971181 3 0.473 0.667 -0.086 0.139 2 971182 3 0.427 0.539 -0.110 0.310 3 971191 3 0.401 0.384 0.060 0.307 4 971192 3 0.535 0.564 0.125 0.104 5 971201 3 0.213 0.427 0.004 0.066 6 971202 3 0.678 0.992 -0.210 -0.016 7 971211 3 0.575 0.611 0.073 0.129 8 971212 3 0.636 0.604 0.094 0.151 9 971221 3 0.550 0.666 -0.062 0.190 10 971222 3 0.496 0.542 0.003 0.240 11 971231 3 0.505 0.685 0.047 -0.017 12 971232 3 0.577 0.712 0.069 -0.009 13 971241 3 0.457 0.425 0.093 0.264 14 971242 3 0.449 0.547 0.164 0.004 15 971251 3 0.674 0.728 0.122 -0.013 16 971252 3 0.527 0.809 -0.213 0.125 17 971261 3 0.529 0.657 0.013 0.099 18 971262 3 0.423 0.517 0.064 0.148 19 971271 3 0.311 0.481 0.080 0.046 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 971272 3 0.216 0.409 0.026 0.108 21 971281 3 0.482 0.534 0.289 -0.107 22 971282 3 0.429 0.606 0.071 -0.002 23 971291 3 0.412 0.447 0.320 -0.077 24 971292 3 0.532 0.524 0.217 0.045 25 971301 3 0.078 0.228 0.052 0.093 26 971302 3 0.314 0.594 -0.071 -0.118 27 971311 3 0.359 0.521 0.062 0.059 28 971312 3 0.379 0.561 0.006 0.100 29 971321 3 0.295 0.487 0.037 0.067 30 971322 3 0.488 0.646 -0.020 0.110 31 971331 3 0.460 0.496 0.124 0.141 32 971332 3 0.630 0.535 0.402 -0.115 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.453 0.567 0.058 0.080 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.136 0.139 0.132 0.112 MEDIAN 3 0.466 0.544 0.061 0.096 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.143 0.160 0.105 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.078 0.228 -0.213 -0.118 LOWER HINGE 3 0.390 0.491 0.004 -0.006 UPPER HINGE 3 0.533 0.652 0.108 0.140 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.678 0.992 0.402 0.310 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.005 0.366 1.215 6.447 0.330 0.048 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.257 0.973 5.634 0.266 0.041 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.261 0.739 5.167 0.278 0.001 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.267 0.945 5.641 0.278 -0.005 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.268 0.454 3.593 0.298 0.005 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.004 0.390 1.171 8.235 0.441 -0.155 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.302 0.217 4.165 0.328 -0.040 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.001 0.315 0.484 5.432 0.339 -0.005 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.227 0.656 4.722 0.249 0.009 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.240 0.491 5.129 0.258 0.024 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.220 0.663 3.867 0.244 0.000 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.204 0.417 4.014 0.227 -0.001 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.299 0.963 6.181 0.285 -0.007 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.307 0.916 5.155 0.305 -0.003 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.249 0.697 5.660 0.255 -0.002 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.287 1.324 8.253 0.289 -0.076 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.002 0.315 2.017 18.141 0.306 0.022 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.316 1.253 6.228 0.316 -0.012 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.312 0.683 4.069 0.345 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.273 0.809 5.089 0.287 -0.011 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.001 0.260 0.353 4.705 0.274 -0.008 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.260 0.695 3.918 0.265 0.006 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.301 0.518 3.524 0.325 0.005 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.297 0.696 4.843 0.316 -0.008 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.221 1.156 5.170 0.224 0.000 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.233 2.180 11.031 0.231 -0.006 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.287 1.146 6.487 0.287 0.010 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.233 0.564 3.812 0.239 -0.009 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.332 2.599 15.249 0.290 -0.008 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.001 0.280 1.412 11.438 0.292 -0.016 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.249 0.944 5.771 0.266 -0.001 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.002 0.269 1.776 13.744 0.254 0.026 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.001 0.278 0.973 6.579 0.287 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.001 0.042 0.550 3.562 0.043 0.035 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.271 0.863 5.301 0.286 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.055 0.582 2.032 0.054 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.204 0.217 3.524 0.224 -0.155 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.249 0.610 4.435 0.257 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.304 1.193 6.467 0.311 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.005 0.390 2.599 18.141 0.441 0.048 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.317 0.104 0.005 0.641 4.333 0.037 0.773 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.037 SERIES 971181 AND 971252 207 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.773 SERIES 971231 AND 971232 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.474 0.484 0.290 0.218 0.316 0.324 0.357 0.359 0.382 0.422 SDEV 0.214 0.154 0.166 0.191 0.177 0.148 0.157 0.145 0.144 0.155 SERR 0.087 0.040 0.022 0.014 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.859 0.919 0.886 0.869 0.925 0.934 0.946 0.947 0.952 0.959 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.986 0.175 0.083 3.678 0.206 -0.057 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.221 0.142 0.062 143 169 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.77 1.00 1.11 1.89 36.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.057 -0.033 0.022 -0.004 0.018 -0.141 0.027 0.084 -0.051 -0.008 PACF -0.057 -0.036 0.018 -0.003 0.019 -0.141 0.013 0.077 -0.036 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.003 -0.007 0.010 -0.137 0.023 0.077 -0.045 -0.004 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.003 -0.007 0.010 -0.137 0.024 0.078 -0.045 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.987 0.229 0.593 3.478 0.156 0.636 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.634 0.474 0.425 0.341 0.264 0.174 0.209 0.221 0.164 0.169 PACF 0.634 0.120 0.143 0.003 -0.010 -0.071 0.137 0.062 -0.033 0.043 95% C.L. 0.113 0.152 0.170 0.183 0.191 0.196 0.198 0.200 0.204 0.205 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.423 0.539 0.043 0.143 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 15.35 MINUTES