RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS104X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 971 1 Krasnovishersk DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCOB - 971 2 Russia Black Spuce 140 6023-5707 1680 1991 - 971 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 971192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 971252 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1794 1794 / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 971262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 971271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1854 1857 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 971321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 971322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 0.871 0.114 -0.402 2.944 0.085 0.674 2 971182 1780 1991 212 0.890 0.075 -0.190 2.886 0.066 0.514 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.864 0.141 -0.623 2.360 0.081 0.806 4 971192 1742 1991 250 0.852 0.098 -0.226 2.543 0.095 0.449 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.862 0.089 -0.886 3.793 0.074 0.574 6 971202 1796 1981 186 0.845 0.082 -0.494 3.173 0.082 0.414 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.777 0.125 -0.177 2.188 0.101 0.689 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.780 0.109 0.044 2.221 0.091 0.645 9 971221 1797 1991 195 0.869 0.072 -0.259 3.553 0.078 0.289 10 971222 1816 1991 176 0.897 0.070 -0.683 3.475 0.070 0.298 11 971231 1790 1991 202 0.846 0.115 -0.803 3.183 0.093 0.660 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.779 0.124 -0.698 2.952 0.096 0.724 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.862 0.110 -1.549 5.496 0.069 0.748 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.849 0.108 -1.278 4.955 0.074 0.736 15 971251 1768 1991 224 0.813 0.070 -0.533 3.379 0.083 0.280 16 971252 1785 1991 207 0.781 0.087 -0.584 2.934 0.083 0.582 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.806 0.093 -0.896 3.247 0.073 0.666 18 971262 1747 1991 245 0.809 0.083 -0.758 3.294 0.071 0.585 19 971271 1827 1991 165 0.829 0.057 -1.138 4.547 0.059 0.352 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 0.862 0.068 -1.088 5.248 0.066 0.430 21 971281 1767 1991 225 0.754 0.113 -0.481 2.427 0.078 0.790 22 971282 1782 1991 210 0.742 0.096 -0.371 3.154 0.073 0.752 23 971291 1827 1991 165 0.782 0.085 -0.638 3.250 0.078 0.543 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.785 0.110 -0.771 3.153 0.093 0.641 25 971301 1874 1991 118 0.807 0.066 -0.145 3.049 0.059 0.586 26 971302 1874 1991 118 0.832 0.065 -0.576 2.816 0.056 0.618 27 971311 1863 1991 129 0.864 0.064 -0.503 3.127 0.060 0.395 28 971312 1851 1991 141 0.856 0.065 -0.769 3.603 0.067 0.291 29 971321 1695 1991 297 0.868 0.065 -0.591 3.317 0.060 0.466 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.850 0.093 -0.933 3.896 0.073 0.657 31 971331 1703 1991 289 0.843 0.090 -0.788 3.630 0.068 0.689 32 971332 1704 1991 288 0.807 0.093 -0.870 3.580 0.079 0.625 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1680 TO 1991 312 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.829 0.090 -0.646 3.356 0.076 0.568 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.041 0.022 0.346 0.790 0.012 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 0.844 0.090 -0.630 3.215 0.074 0.602 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.067 0.039 0.395 0.652 0.016 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.742 0.057 -1.549 2.188 0.056 0.280 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.795 0.070 -0.836 2.939 0.067 0.440 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 0.862 0.109 -0.442 3.592 0.083 0.681 MAXIMUM VALUE 310 0.897 0.141 0.044 5.496 0.101 0.806 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.260 0.219 0.010 -0.350 2.927 -0.401 0.812 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.401 SERIES 971191 AND 971281 223 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.812 SERIES 971241 AND 971242 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.282 0.297 0.209 0.179 0.315 0.326 0.299 0.278 0.314 0.243 SDEV 0.072 0.176 0.186 0.230 0.204 0.209 0.186 0.229 0.226 0.218 SERR 0.029 0.045 0.025 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.726 0.836 0.834 0.839 0.925 0.935 0.931 0.925 0.936 0.910 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 0.838 0.050 -0.278 2.713 0.046 0.457 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.498 -0.338 0.362 88 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.38 1.00 1.08 1.46 30.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 211. 74. 118. 170. 244. 312. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.456 0.441 0.346 0.331 0.268 0.289 0.296 0.329 0.293 0.294 PACF 0.456 0.294 0.097 0.097 0.025 0.089 0.101 0.121 0.038 0.040 95% C.L. 0.113 0.135 0.152 0.162 0.170 0.176 0.182 0.188 0.195 0.201 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.295 0.278 0.236 0.075 0.106 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043733 0.82553256 2 971182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028796 0.85952067 3 971191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00146309 0.69999027 4 971192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033577 0.80973953 5 971201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008594 0.86867988 6 971202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021269 0.82473701 7 971211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082832 0.67175984 8 971212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060883 0.69574994 9 971221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004410 0.87314248 10 971222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046356 0.93755907 11 971231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00096886 0.94388354 12 971232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068698 0.85673273 13 971241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070362 0.94314295 14 971242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060167 0.91892803 15 971251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004055 0.81795484 16 971252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047104 0.82985622 17 971261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042660 0.75384009 18 971262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017513 0.78640479 19 971271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017786 0.81292158 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039913 0.88928908 21 971281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127555 0.89835912 22 971282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126914 0.87603694 23 971291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070860 0.84045011 24 971292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115408 0.89837050 25 971301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012735 0.81444156 26 971302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00132011 0.91066492 27 971311 1 0.30444494 0.00328172 0.00000000 0.61647505 28 971312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041560 0.88525230 29 971321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015604 0.89077300 30 971322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005448 0.84191996 31 971331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064530 0.93657947 32 971332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049596 0.87850589 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.127 -0.613 2.844 0.085 0.643 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.082 -0.340 2.926 0.065 0.478 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.999 0.123 -0.258 2.676 0.081 0.646 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.110 -0.410 2.857 0.095 0.407 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.103 -0.838 3.707 0.074 0.571 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.096 -0.490 3.254 0.082 0.401 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.143 -0.150 2.608 0.101 0.597 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.126 0.187 2.757 0.091 0.571 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.083 -0.242 3.521 0.077 0.286 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.074 -0.546 3.258 0.070 0.199 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.121 -0.556 3.056 0.093 0.533 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.151 -0.372 2.796 0.096 0.680 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.120 -1.147 4.949 0.069 0.690 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.122 -0.861 4.366 0.073 0.692 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.087 -0.487 3.355 0.083 0.277 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.107 -0.266 2.723 0.083 0.524 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.111 -0.607 3.078 0.073 0.630 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.102 -0.595 3.143 0.071 0.584 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.068 -1.118 4.457 0.058 0.338 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.077 -1.248 6.084 0.066 0.392 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.104 -0.687 3.670 0.078 0.552 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.080 -0.630 4.823 0.072 0.297 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.101 -0.252 3.224 0.078 0.464 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.116 -0.296 3.922 0.093 0.451 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.082 -0.157 3.097 0.058 0.579 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.058 -0.038 3.113 0.056 0.271 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.066 0.024 3.563 0.060 0.198 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.074 -0.463 3.401 0.066 0.238 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.074 -0.397 2.990 0.060 0.438 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.109 -0.959 3.914 0.072 0.651 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.088 -0.506 4.295 0.068 0.508 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.105 -0.610 3.587 0.078 0.531 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.100 -0.498 3.500 0.076 0.479 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.023 0.334 0.780 0.012 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.103 -0.489 3.256 0.074 0.516 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.037 0.360 0.852 0.015 0.225 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.999 0.058 -1.248 2.608 0.056 0.198 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.081 -0.622 2.958 0.067 0.365 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.118 -0.262 3.810 0.083 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.151 0.187 6.084 0.101 0.692 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 971181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 971182 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 971191 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 971192 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 971201 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 971202 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 971211 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 971212 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 971221 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 971222 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 971231 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 971232 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 971241 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 971242 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 971251 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 971252 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 971261 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 971262 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 971271 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 971272 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 971281 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 971282 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 971291 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 971292 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 971301 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 971302 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 971311 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 971312 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 971321 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 971322 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 971331 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 971332 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.122 -0.581 2.996 0.085 0.617 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.072 -0.382 3.141 0.065 0.335 3 971191 1769 1991 223 0.999 0.104 0.225 4.265 0.081 0.478 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.103 -0.421 2.909 0.095 0.318 5 971201 1830 1981 152 0.999 0.076 -0.814 4.226 0.074 0.229 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.088 -0.571 3.335 0.082 0.289 7 971211 1739 1991 253 0.998 0.116 -0.032 2.848 0.101 0.393 8 971212 1716 1991 276 0.999 0.100 -0.092 3.016 0.091 0.326 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.074 -0.573 4.018 0.077 0.080 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.071 -0.485 3.274 0.070 0.138 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.114 -0.595 3.423 0.093 0.475 12 971232 1766 1991 226 0.998 0.128 -0.195 3.731 0.096 0.551 13 971241 1763 1991 229 0.999 0.106 -1.212 5.813 0.069 0.595 14 971242 1762 1991 230 0.999 0.104 -1.162 5.609 0.073 0.564 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.084 -0.483 3.405 0.083 0.229 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.090 -0.161 3.538 0.083 0.316 17 971261 1749 1991 243 0.999 0.104 -0.500 3.290 0.073 0.568 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.095 -0.692 3.150 0.071 0.511 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.061 -1.120 5.259 0.058 0.157 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.074 -1.208 6.138 0.066 0.336 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.099 -0.664 3.738 0.078 0.496 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.077 -0.661 4.968 0.072 0.248 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.082 -0.441 4.883 0.078 0.166 24 971292 1796 1991 196 0.999 0.098 -0.758 5.545 0.093 0.233 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.060 -0.161 3.699 0.059 0.175 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.053 -0.191 3.369 0.056 0.136 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.063 -0.138 3.512 0.060 0.141 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.069 -0.429 3.571 0.066 0.109 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.065 -0.467 3.294 0.060 0.269 30 971322 1680 1991 312 0.999 0.096 -0.929 4.009 0.072 0.544 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.082 -0.381 4.932 0.068 0.429 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.098 -0.523 4.003 0.078 0.455 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.088 -0.525 3.966 0.076 0.341 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.019 0.349 0.933 0.012 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.089 -0.493 3.635 0.074 0.322 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.030 0.390 1.282 0.016 0.285 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.998 0.053 -1.212 2.848 0.056 0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 0.999 0.073 -0.678 3.292 0.067 0.202 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.103 -0.288 4.574 0.083 0.487 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.128 0.225 6.138 0.101 0.617 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.246 0.130 0.006 0.275 3.541 -0.098 0.790 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.098 SERIES 971311 AND 971332 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.790 SERIES 971241 AND 971242 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.261 0.304 0.202 0.145 0.297 0.331 0.309 0.315 0.299 0.252 SDEV 0.128 0.160 0.190 0.225 0.187 0.183 0.171 0.178 0.197 0.200 SERR 0.052 0.041 0.026 0.016 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.704 0.841 0.827 0.802 0.918 0.936 0.934 0.936 0.932 0.914 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.003 0.047 -0.456 3.527 0.046 0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.237 -0.145 0.214 118 194 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.38 1.00 1.06 1.44 9.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.143 0.128 0.046 0.056 -0.022 -0.012 0.009 0.061 -0.023 0.000 PACF 0.143 0.109 0.015 0.035 -0.042 -0.016 0.018 0.063 -0.039 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.113 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.032 0.127 0.110 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.143 0.094 0.081 0.097 0.038 -0.002 0.048 0.100 0.014 -0.008 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.143 2 0.133 0.075 3 0.128 0.067 0.059 4 0.124 0.062 0.050 0.074 5 0.124 0.062 0.050 0.073 0.006 6 0.124 0.063 0.051 0.074 0.009 -0.025 7 0.125 0.063 0.048 0.072 0.006 -0.030 0.039 8 0.121 0.066 0.047 0.066 0.002 -0.035 0.029 0.085 9 0.123 0.066 0.047 0.066 0.003 -0.035 0.030 0.087 -0.017 10 0.122 0.068 0.048 0.066 0.003 -0.033 0.031 0.088 -0.014 -0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1892.77 1888.28 1888.54 1889.44 1889.74 1891.73 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1893.53 1895.05 1894.80 1896.72 1898.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.143 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.10 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.143 0.021 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 971181 1 0.397 0.624 2 971182 1 0.113 0.336 3 971191 1 0.262 0.484 4 971192 1 0.121 0.319 5 971201 1 0.066 0.231 6 971202 1 0.103 0.289 7 971211 1 0.180 0.394 8 971212 1 0.151 0.326 9 971221 1 0.032 0.081 10 971222 1 0.052 0.138 11 971231 1 0.258 0.480 12 971232 1 0.357 0.552 13 971241 1 0.373 0.595 14 971242 1 0.343 0.565 15 971251 1 0.056 0.230 16 971252 1 0.102 0.317 17 971261 1 0.376 0.570 18 971262 1 0.291 0.519 19 971271 1 0.026 0.158 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 971272 1 0.117 0.337 21 971281 1 0.282 0.496 22 971282 1 0.071 0.248 23 971291 1 0.062 0.167 24 971292 1 0.080 0.233 25 971301 1 0.038 0.182 26 971302 1 0.022 0.137 27 971311 1 0.022 0.145 28 971312 1 0.017 0.110 29 971321 1 0.089 0.269 30 971322 1 0.334 0.545 31 971331 1 0.196 0.432 32 971332 1 0.216 0.457 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.163 0.343 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.125 0.164 MEDIAN 1 0.115 0.322 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.212 0.284 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.017 0.081 LOWER HINGE 1 0.059 0.206 UPPER HINGE 1 0.272 0.490 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.397 0.624 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 971181 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.095 -0.188 3.218 0.108 -0.067 2 971182 1780 1991 212 1.000 0.068 -0.323 3.513 0.074 0.000 3 971191 1769 1991 223 1.000 0.091 0.268 4.107 0.101 -0.095 4 971192 1742 1991 250 1.000 0.097 -0.391 3.037 0.111 -0.047 5 971201 1830 1981 152 1.000 0.074 -0.793 4.375 0.083 -0.026 6 971202 1796 1981 186 1.000 0.084 -0.706 3.581 0.093 -0.042 7 971211 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.107 -0.160 3.493 0.126 -0.067 8 971212 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.094 -0.238 3.677 0.108 -0.073 9 971221 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.074 -0.585 4.187 0.081 -0.012 10 971222 1816 1991 176 1.000 0.071 -0.449 3.621 0.075 -0.025 11 971231 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.100 -0.740 3.721 0.117 -0.088 12 971232 1766 1991 226 1.000 0.107 -0.336 3.401 0.123 -0.149 13 971241 1763 1991 229 1.000 0.085 -1.109 6.947 0.093 -0.102 14 971242 1762 1991 230 1.000 0.085 -1.122 5.820 0.097 -0.105 15 971251 1768 1991 224 1.000 0.082 -0.457 3.514 0.091 -0.014 16 971252 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.085 -0.271 3.286 0.095 -0.015 17 971261 1749 1991 243 1.000 0.085 0.148 3.887 0.096 -0.157 18 971262 1747 1991 245 1.000 0.081 -0.220 3.443 0.091 -0.097 19 971271 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.060 -1.232 5.792 0.062 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 971272 1857 1991 135 1.000 0.069 -0.909 4.056 0.076 0.021 21 971281 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.086 -0.789 4.210 0.099 -0.108 22 971282 1782 1991 210 1.000 0.075 -0.723 5.255 0.080 -0.025 23 971291 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.081 -0.496 5.359 0.086 -0.031 24 971292 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.096 -0.770 6.303 0.105 -0.039 25 971301 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.059 -0.360 4.275 0.064 -0.010 26 971302 1874 1991 118 1.000 0.052 -0.311 3.474 0.058 0.008 27 971311 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.063 -0.093 3.481 0.064 -0.001 28 971312 1851 1991 141 1.000 0.068 -0.359 3.598 0.070 -0.008 29 971321 1695 1991 297 1.000 0.063 -0.477 3.673 0.069 -0.035 30 971322 1680 1991 312 1.000 0.080 -0.739 4.029 0.095 -0.125 31 971331 1703 1991 289 1.000 0.074 -0.399 4.224 0.083 -0.045 32 971332 1704 1991 288 1.000 0.087 -0.293 3.429 0.096 -0.040 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.081 -0.488 4.125 0.090 -0.050 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.014 0.346 0.966 0.018 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.081 -0.424 3.699 0.092 -0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 73 0.000 0.019 0.458 0.762 0.025 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.052 -1.232 3.037 0.058 -0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.070 -0.740 3.487 0.075 -0.091 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 244 1.000 0.089 -0.282 4.249 0.100 -0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 312 1.000 0.107 0.268 6.947 0.126 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.300 0.119 0.005 0.039 3.524 -0.055 0.718 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.055 SERIES 971311 AND 971332 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.718 SERIES 971241 AND 971242 229 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 6. 15. 55. 190. 253. 351. 435. 496. 496. 435. RBAR 0.331 0.368 0.226 0.170 0.399 0.418 0.310 0.363 0.370 0.304 SDEV 0.093 0.090 0.135 0.183 0.148 0.138 0.163 0.149 0.172 0.186 SERR 0.038 0.023 0.018 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.770 0.876 0.847 0.830 0.947 0.955 0.934 0.948 0.950 0.933 NSS 6.7 12.1 19.0 23.8 26.7 29.6 31.6 32.0 32.0 31.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.002 0.047 -0.544 4.476 0.056 -0.253 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.159 -0.086 0.146 101 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.38 1.00 1.07 1.45 5.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.88 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.253 0.070 -0.022 0.051 -0.053 -0.020 -0.030 0.086 -0.055 0.027 PACF -0.253 0.007 -0.003 0.047 -0.031 -0.046 -0.046 0.075 -0.010 0.006 95% C.L. 0.113 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.064 -0.253 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.005 0.009 0.038 -0.052 -0.044 -0.015 0.075 -0.032 0.019 PACF 0.001 0.005 0.009 0.038 -0.053 -0.044 -0.015 0.076 -0.028 0.019 95% C.L. 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1680 1991 312 1.002 0.046 -0.553 3.746 0.045 0.146 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.146 0.028 0.017 0.031 -0.053 -0.051 -0.012 0.068 -0.020 0.013 PACF 0.146 0.006 0.012 0.027 -0.064 -0.036 0.002 0.073 -0.036 0.019 95% C.L. 0.113 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 0.146 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES