RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS112W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS112W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 979 1 Yakutsk-Biol.Station WIDTH_RING LASI - 979 2 Russia Siberian larch 270 6213-12921 1730 1991 - 979 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 979041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 979111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 979132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 1 GAPS / 1869 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 979142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1889 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 1.108 0.511 0.132 2.610 0.259 0.776 2 979012 1840 1991 152 1.065 0.494 0.320 2.735 0.229 0.793 3 979021 1902 1991 90 0.982 0.386 1.918 7.720 0.218 0.713 4 979022 1888 1991 104 1.219 0.398 0.552 2.692 0.221 0.650 5 979031 1901 1991 91 0.894 0.435 0.563 3.272 0.350 0.679 6 979032 1865 1991 127 1.133 0.631 1.039 3.758 0.344 0.709 7 979041 1806 1991 186 0.518 0.333 1.025 3.613 0.327 0.788 8 979042 1836 1991 156 0.651 0.344 0.931 3.885 0.259 0.808 9 979051 1850 1991 142 1.047 0.627 0.426 2.206 0.311 0.814 10 979052 1871 1991 121 0.599 0.313 0.611 2.631 0.261 0.777 11 979071 1810 1991 182 0.685 0.411 1.326 4.054 0.226 0.859 12 979072 1808 1991 184 0.535 0.276 0.686 2.621 0.216 0.849 13 979081 1792 1991 200 0.615 0.424 1.185 3.829 0.258 0.879 14 979082 1860 1990 131 0.324 0.165 0.833 3.051 0.274 0.757 15 979101 1803 1991 189 0.815 0.731 1.475 4.516 0.250 0.915 16 979102 1807 1991 185 0.848 0.741 0.991 2.952 0.296 0.891 17 979111 1790 1991 202 0.881 0.636 1.044 3.270 0.282 0.882 18 979112 1802 1972 171 0.744 0.480 1.630 5.144 0.249 0.804 19 979121 1806 1991 186 0.718 0.581 1.729 6.027 0.246 0.893 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 0.583 0.417 1.648 5.336 0.242 0.852 21 979131 1796 1991 196 0.533 0.501 1.762 5.189 0.316 0.890 22 979132 1788 1991 204 0.492 0.480 1.423 3.855 0.351 0.912 23 979141 1730 1991 262 0.725 0.356 1.152 5.308 0.268 0.743 24 979142 1793 1991 199 0.843 0.406 1.598 6.128 0.235 0.780 25 979151 1815 1991 177 0.843 0.346 0.672 2.899 0.234 0.665 26 979152 1824 1991 168 0.883 0.331 0.586 2.866 0.254 0.621 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1730 TO 1991 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.780 0.452 1.048 3.930 0.268 0.796 STANDARD DEVIATION 38 0.226 0.140 0.496 1.370 0.042 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 0.780 0.420 1.032 3.686 0.258 0.799 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 44 0.295 0.165 0.864 2.278 0.061 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.324 0.165 0.132 2.206 0.216 0.621 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.599 0.346 0.611 2.866 0.235 0.743 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 186 0.894 0.511 1.475 5.144 0.296 0.879 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.219 0.741 1.918 7.720 0.351 0.915 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.575 0.236 0.013 -0.841 3.302 -0.203 0.950 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.203 SERIES 979032 AND 979101 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.950 SERIES 979131 AND 979132 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 105. 153. 231. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.547 0.609 0.458 0.406 0.448 0.615 0.456 SDEV 0.152 0.196 0.219 0.284 0.207 0.166 0.185 SERR 0.088 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.012 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.937 0.965 0.947 0.943 0.954 0.977 0.956 NSS 12.4 17.7 21.2 24.0 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.747 0.404 0.963 3.715 0.230 0.875 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.471 0.236 0.113 76 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.57 1.00 1.07 1.65 16.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 180. 54. 90. 142. 196. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.872 0.805 0.748 0.710 0.690 0.692 0.693 0.700 0.681 0.645 PACF 0.872 0.187 0.063 0.085 0.108 0.151 0.096 0.106 -0.019 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.124 0.196 0.241 0.274 0.301 0.324 0.346 0.367 0.387 0.405 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.776 0.701 0.199 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 979011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00195709 1.25052297 2 979012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00295363 1.29062390 3 979021 1 1.58118904 0.09552304 0.00000000 0.80697924 4 979022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00567396 1.51692116 5 979031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01159229 1.42742121 6 979032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00451455 1.42215967 7 979041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00298884 0.82871425 8 979042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00419728 0.98089659 9 979051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00953379 1.72842669 10 979052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00635246 0.98617768 11 979071 1 1.37552989 0.02204426 0.00000000 0.35223070 12 979072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422052 0.92545259 13 979081 1 1.44793224 0.01286743 0.00000000 0.09856381 14 979082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00333598 0.54429710 15 979101 1 2.52207613 0.01690840 0.00000000 0.06491236 16 979102 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 979111 1 1.93512535 0.01376018 0.00000000 0.17647380 18 979112 1 1.76173890 0.02951297 0.00000000 0.40259022 19 979121 1 2.03010082 0.02336402 0.00000000 0.26271108 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 979122 1 1.40221989 0.01695385 0.00000000 0.18831348 21 979131 1 2.00607443 0.03104975 0.00000000 0.20901106 22 979132 1 1.69086194 0.02050119 0.00000000 0.07179115 23 979141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007426 0.71542597 24 979142 1 1.33628154 0.04008835 0.00000000 0.66501796 25 979151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011736 0.85366523 26 979152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050630 0.92540133 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 0.999 0.446 0.057 2.665 0.257 0.759 2 979012 1840 1991 152 0.997 0.436 0.248 2.835 0.228 0.765 3 979021 1902 1991 90 1.000 0.225 0.408 2.845 0.214 0.298 4 979022 1888 1991 104 0.998 0.279 0.265 2.760 0.219 0.498 5 979031 1901 1991 91 0.995 0.357 0.044 2.626 0.347 0.404 6 979032 1865 1991 127 0.995 0.506 0.789 3.263 0.341 0.636 7 979041 1806 1991 186 0.992 0.454 0.445 2.944 0.312 0.681 8 979042 1836 1991 156 0.992 0.422 1.104 5.149 0.257 0.708 9 979051 1850 1991 142 0.971 0.431 0.568 3.261 0.309 0.648 10 979052 1871 1991 121 0.992 0.345 0.539 3.081 0.258 0.564 11 979071 1810 1991 182 1.000 0.321 0.626 3.159 0.224 0.620 12 979072 1808 1991 184 1.018 0.323 0.805 3.947 0.215 0.603 13 979081 1792 1991 200 0.995 0.344 0.846 3.956 0.257 0.548 14 979082 1860 1990 131 1.014 0.332 0.624 3.286 0.273 0.435 15 979101 1803 1991 189 1.034 0.421 0.875 3.518 0.249 0.665 16 979102 1807 1991 185 0.997 0.379 0.657 3.320 0.295 0.472 17 979111 1790 1991 202 1.004 0.372 0.861 3.909 0.269 0.514 18 979112 1802 1972 171 1.001 0.285 0.320 3.353 0.247 0.396 19 979121 1806 1991 186 0.995 0.404 0.911 3.831 0.244 0.683 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 1.002 0.295 0.234 2.893 0.241 0.504 21 979131 1796 1991 196 1.008 0.446 1.316 5.868 0.315 0.515 22 979132 1788 1991 204 1.050 0.456 0.600 3.536 0.341 0.496 23 979141 1730 1991 262 1.000 0.493 1.178 5.374 0.267 0.741 24 979142 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.309 0.004 2.830 0.231 0.569 25 979151 1815 1991 177 1.000 0.410 0.666 2.874 0.232 0.661 26 979152 1824 1991 168 1.000 0.372 0.541 2.803 0.252 0.614 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 1.002 0.379 0.597 3.457 0.265 0.577 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.015 0.071 0.344 0.845 0.040 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 1.000 0.375 0.612 3.262 0.257 0.586 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.007 0.113 0.527 0.986 0.063 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.971 0.225 0.004 2.626 0.214 0.298 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.995 0.323 0.320 2.845 0.232 0.498 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.002 0.436 0.846 3.831 0.295 0.665 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.050 0.506 1.316 5.868 0.347 0.765 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 979011 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 979012 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 979021 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 979022 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 979031 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 979032 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 979041 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 979042 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 979051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 979052 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 979071 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 979072 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 979081 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 979082 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 979101 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 979102 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 979111 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 979112 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 979121 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 979122 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 979131 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 979132 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 979141 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 979142 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 979151 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 979152 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 0.991 0.405 0.364 3.499 0.258 0.687 2 979012 1840 1991 152 0.994 0.365 0.256 3.841 0.228 0.664 3 979021 1902 1991 90 0.999 0.216 0.414 2.980 0.214 0.255 4 979022 1888 1991 104 0.995 0.229 0.077 2.477 0.217 0.288 5 979031 1901 1991 91 0.990 0.317 -0.015 2.591 0.348 0.241 6 979032 1865 1991 127 0.982 0.372 0.756 3.438 0.337 0.376 7 979041 1806 1991 186 0.994 0.433 0.529 3.550 0.312 0.648 8 979042 1836 1991 156 0.994 0.385 0.808 3.809 0.257 0.654 9 979051 1850 1991 142 0.995 0.369 0.222 3.164 0.309 0.526 10 979052 1871 1991 121 0.995 0.315 0.335 2.746 0.258 0.478 11 979071 1810 1991 182 0.998 0.310 0.535 2.910 0.224 0.595 12 979072 1808 1991 184 0.998 0.291 0.613 3.499 0.215 0.552 13 979081 1792 1991 200 0.995 0.299 0.445 3.472 0.256 0.429 14 979082 1860 1990 131 0.996 0.293 0.627 4.121 0.273 0.338 15 979101 1803 1991 189 0.991 0.341 1.274 5.469 0.249 0.561 16 979102 1807 1991 185 0.996 0.364 0.705 3.501 0.295 0.451 17 979111 1790 1991 202 0.991 0.325 0.681 3.819 0.269 0.405 18 979112 1802 1972 171 0.997 0.261 0.065 2.987 0.247 0.306 19 979121 1806 1991 186 0.994 0.329 0.735 3.720 0.245 0.527 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 0.998 0.281 0.217 2.940 0.241 0.462 21 979131 1796 1991 196 0.995 0.411 1.178 6.093 0.315 0.441 22 979132 1788 1991 204 0.992 0.368 0.219 3.114 0.341 0.365 23 979141 1730 1991 262 0.981 0.394 0.718 4.305 0.267 0.632 24 979142 1793 1991 199 0.998 0.300 -0.026 2.990 0.231 0.550 25 979151 1815 1991 177 0.994 0.337 1.029 5.337 0.233 0.522 26 979152 1824 1991 168 0.997 0.318 0.776 4.693 0.253 0.487 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 0.994 0.332 0.521 3.656 0.265 0.479 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.004 0.054 0.348 0.902 0.040 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 0.995 0.327 0.532 3.499 0.257 0.483 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.005 0.070 0.513 0.854 0.062 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.981 0.216 -0.026 2.477 0.214 0.241 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.992 0.299 0.222 2.987 0.233 0.376 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 0.997 0.369 0.735 3.841 0.295 0.561 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.999 0.433 1.274 6.093 0.348 0.687 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.454 0.129 0.007 -0.292 3.223 0.087 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.087 SERIES 979032 AND 979101 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 979011 AND 979012 145 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 105. 153. 231. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.279 0.429 0.448 0.453 0.479 0.553 0.464 SDEV 0.281 0.207 0.224 0.224 0.176 0.139 0.144 SERR 0.162 0.020 0.018 0.015 0.011 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.828 0.930 0.945 0.952 0.959 0.970 0.957 NSS 12.4 17.7 21.2 24.0 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.959 0.296 0.078 3.070 0.237 0.560 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.289 0.117 0.071 94 168 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.63 1.00 1.07 1.71 14.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.558 0.379 0.220 0.161 0.096 0.082 0.108 0.109 0.009 -0.005 PACF 0.558 0.098 -0.038 0.039 -0.016 0.026 0.076 0.020 -0.127 0.011 95% C.L. 0.124 0.157 0.171 0.175 0.177 0.178 0.179 0.180 0.181 0.181 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.320 0.506 0.096 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.443 0.268 0.140 0.070 -0.001 -0.058 0.033 0.012 -0.139 -0.087 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.443 2 0.403 0.090 3 0.404 0.094 -0.010 4 0.404 0.095 -0.006 -0.009 5 0.404 0.094 -0.002 0.009 -0.046 6 0.401 0.095 -0.002 0.014 -0.022 -0.058 7 0.407 0.097 -0.004 0.015 -0.033 -0.101 0.109 8 0.409 0.095 -0.004 0.015 -0.033 -0.100 0.116 -0.017 9 0.406 0.118 -0.024 0.009 -0.030 -0.101 0.134 0.063 -0.196 10 0.413 0.116 -0.029 0.012 -0.029 -0.101 0.135 0.059 -0.211 0.036 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2238.39 2183.19 2183.08 2185.05 2187.03 2188.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2189.60 2188.49 2190.42 2182.12 2183.77 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.403 0.090 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.26 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 125.41 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.403 0.252 0.138 0.078 0.044 0.025 0.014 0.008 0.004 0.0025 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 979011 2 0.497 0.741 -0.053 2 979012 2 0.443 0.643 0.033 3 979021 2 0.072 0.275 -0.075 4 979022 2 0.087 0.296 -0.027 5 979031 2 0.084 0.229 0.059 6 979032 2 0.153 0.357 0.067 7 979041 2 0.439 0.711 -0.076 8 979042 2 0.441 0.739 -0.128 9 979051 2 0.308 0.632 -0.194 10 979052 2 0.246 0.533 -0.096 11 979071 2 0.356 0.588 0.013 12 979072 2 0.318 0.490 0.115 13 979081 2 0.225 0.334 0.221 14 979082 2 0.138 0.286 0.158 15 979101 2 0.321 0.523 0.073 16 979102 2 0.221 0.386 0.146 17 979111 2 0.223 0.319 0.212 18 979112 2 0.122 0.265 0.134 19 979121 2 0.289 0.468 0.115 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 979122 2 0.218 0.441 0.045 21 979131 2 0.243 0.335 0.242 22 979132 2 0.183 0.281 0.232 23 979141 2 0.429 0.499 0.213 24 979142 2 0.309 0.534 0.029 25 979151 2 0.275 0.525 -0.003 26 979152 2 0.245 0.472 0.038 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.265 0.458 0.057 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.120 0.155 0.119 MEDIAN 2 0.246 0.470 0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.139 0.215 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.072 0.229 -0.194 LOWER HINGE 2 0.183 0.319 -0.027 UPPER HINGE 2 0.321 0.534 0.146 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.497 0.741 0.242 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 1.000 0.284 0.007 2.974 0.334 -0.013 2 979012 1840 1991 152 1.000 0.273 0.577 5.201 0.300 -0.001 3 979021 1902 1991 90 1.000 0.209 0.368 2.773 0.236 -0.001 4 979022 1888 1991 104 1.000 0.219 0.125 2.605 0.247 0.002 5 979031 1901 1991 91 1.000 0.307 -0.118 2.548 0.380 -0.006 6 979032 1865 1991 127 1.000 0.342 0.632 3.644 0.392 0.000 7 979041 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.322 0.364 3.273 0.360 -0.010 8 979042 1836 1991 156 1.000 0.289 0.651 3.476 0.314 -0.007 9 979051 1850 1991 142 1.000 0.306 0.353 3.906 0.338 -0.008 10 979052 1871 1991 121 1.000 0.272 0.610 3.598 0.298 -0.014 11 979071 1810 1991 182 1.000 0.249 0.634 4.496 0.275 0.000 12 979072 1808 1991 184 1.000 0.241 0.523 3.870 0.265 -0.005 13 979081 1792 1991 200 1.000 0.263 0.207 3.297 0.295 -0.009 14 979082 1860 1990 131 1.000 0.272 0.271 3.586 0.309 0.002 15 979101 1803 1991 189 1.000 0.281 0.823 4.734 0.311 -0.004 16 979102 1807 1991 185 1.000 0.321 0.390 3.313 0.345 -0.004 17 979111 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.290 0.768 4.615 0.313 -0.035 18 979112 1802 1972 171 1.000 0.247 0.156 2.731 0.278 -0.015 19 979121 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.277 0.602 4.167 0.300 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 1.000 0.249 0.197 3.345 0.284 0.002 21 979131 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.357 0.851 5.772 0.373 -0.004 22 979132 1788 1991 204 1.000 0.333 0.134 3.322 0.374 -0.014 23 979141 1730 1991 262 1.000 0.297 0.467 4.409 0.318 0.002 24 979142 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.251 0.110 3.174 0.281 0.002 25 979151 1815 1991 177 1.000 0.287 1.385 10.524 0.280 0.000 26 979152 1824 1991 168 1.000 0.276 0.195 3.955 0.320 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 1.000 0.281 0.434 3.974 0.312 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.000 0.036 0.324 1.556 0.041 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 1.000 0.279 0.379 3.592 0.310 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.056 0.437 1.136 0.057 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.209 -0.118 2.548 0.236 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.251 0.195 3.273 0.281 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.306 0.632 4.409 0.338 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.357 1.385 10.524 0.392 0.002 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.480 0.101 0.006 0.043 2.820 0.218 0.769 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.218 SERIES 979011 AND 979132 145 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.769 SERIES 979151 AND 979152 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 105. 153. 231. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.375 0.376 0.442 0.521 0.548 0.532 0.473 SDEV 0.170 0.142 0.148 0.145 0.137 0.134 0.130 SERR 0.098 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.881 0.914 0.944 0.963 0.969 0.967 0.958 NSS 12.4 17.7 21.2 24.0 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.988 0.234 0.145 3.311 0.258 0.045 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.174 0.070 0.078 84 178 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.64 1.00 1.06 1.70 13.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.045 -0.011 -0.067 0.002 -0.041 -0.043 0.044 0.097 -0.046 0.074 PACF 0.045 -0.013 -0.066 0.008 -0.043 -0.044 0.049 0.087 -0.060 0.087 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.003 -0.067 0.006 -0.039 -0.042 0.041 0.098 -0.055 0.081 PACF -0.001 0.003 -0.067 0.006 -0.039 -0.047 0.042 0.094 -0.062 0.086 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.005 -0.001 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.989 0.259 0.147 3.125 0.224 0.428 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.426 0.240 0.074 0.045 -0.006 -0.008 0.049 0.081 -0.012 0.015 PACF 0.426 0.071 -0.063 0.023 -0.029 0.000 0.074 0.047 -0.097 0.041 95% C.L. 0.124 0.144 0.150 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.152 0.152 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.186 0.427 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.24 MINUTES