RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS113N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS113N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 980 1 Tirekhtjakh river DENSITY_MINIMUM LADA - 980 2 Russia Larch 350 6737-13728 1565 1991 - 980 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 980021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1983 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 980032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 980041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1653 1657 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 980062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1654 1655 / 1693 1693 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 980121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 980122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 63 IN 1 GAPS / 1851 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 980132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1746 1750 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 0.270 0.034 1.143 8.205 0.088 0.433 2 980012 1683 1990 308 0.267 0.034 1.197 8.781 0.081 0.540 3 980021 1607 1988 382 0.253 0.032 1.577 9.891 0.096 0.306 4 980022 1574 1990 417 0.256 0.029 0.430 5.134 0.091 0.345 5 980032 1868 1991 124 0.279 0.024 -0.057 4.195 0.062 0.491 6 980041 1608 1991 384 0.277 0.056 3.605 21.350 0.140 0.145 7 980042 1577 1991 415 0.286 0.037 2.399 13.024 0.100 0.201 8 980051 1869 1991 123 0.278 0.025 -0.431 3.008 0.061 0.613 9 980052 1871 1991 121 0.263 0.021 0.200 2.654 0.054 0.611 10 980061 1573 1735 163 0.300 0.083 4.256 21.166 0.149 -0.091 11 980062 1578 1764 187 0.287 0.060 3.732 20.817 0.155 -0.094 12 980071 1567 1736 170 0.260 0.036 2.328 13.071 0.096 0.267 13 980072 1565 1922 358 0.273 0.037 2.164 13.688 0.092 0.365 14 980081 1767 1991 225 0.278 0.027 0.741 4.464 0.081 0.438 15 980082 1741 1991 251 0.283 0.028 1.234 8.573 0.083 0.240 16 980091 1863 1991 129 0.320 0.032 2.060 8.367 0.074 0.312 17 980092 1864 1991 128 0.299 0.019 -0.062 3.044 0.055 0.367 18 980101 1786 1991 206 0.244 0.023 0.100 3.057 0.075 0.460 19 980102 1788 1990 203 0.253 0.024 1.516 10.949 0.072 0.227 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 0.271 0.034 3.080 20.325 0.086 0.396 21 980112 1733 1990 258 0.271 0.037 1.419 9.869 0.083 0.519 22 980121 1699 1991 293 0.268 0.037 1.388 6.926 0.118 0.216 23 980122 1683 1991 309 0.287 0.034 1.302 6.106 0.089 0.400 24 980131 1716 1991 276 0.309 0.034 1.474 10.127 0.076 0.404 25 980132 1741 1991 251 0.305 0.029 0.511 5.158 0.071 0.427 26 980141 1739 1991 253 0.251 0.037 4.426 38.115 0.102 0.096 27 980142 1726 1991 266 0.245 0.028 1.842 8.987 0.099 0.091 28 980161 1773 1991 219 0.284 0.030 0.748 8.620 0.080 0.378 29 980162 1760 1991 232 0.295 0.030 2.344 16.038 0.086 0.058 30 980171 1785 1991 207 0.239 0.035 2.312 13.520 0.101 0.322 31 980172 1797 1990 194 0.246 0.041 4.131 27.554 0.106 0.162 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 31 FROM 1565 TO 1991 427 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 243 0.274 0.034 1.713 11.445 0.090 0.311 STANDARD DEVIATION 85 0.021 0.013 1.331 8.043 0.024 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 246 0.273 0.034 1.474 8.987 0.086 0.345 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 82 0.028 0.009 1.592 7.972 0.024 0.222 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.239 0.019 -0.431 2.654 0.054 -0.094 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 189 0.258 0.028 0.744 5.632 0.076 0.208 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 271 0.286 0.037 2.336 13.604 0.100 0.430 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 0.320 0.083 4.426 38.115 0.155 0.613 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 416 0.227 0.165 0.008 0.252 3.227 -0.221 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.221 SERIES 980011 AND 980052 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 980061 AND 980062 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 15. 28. 28. 36. 36. 45. 120. 153. 231. 253. RBAR 0.402 0.376 0.312 0.378 0.314 0.199 0.223 0.324 0.318 0.186 SDEV 0.208 0.158 0.180 0.192 0.183 0.233 0.207 0.209 0.217 0.200 SERR 0.054 0.030 0.034 0.032 0.030 0.035 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.835 0.836 0.811 0.870 0.857 0.796 0.842 0.911 0.914 0.842 NSS 7.5 8.5 9.5 11.0 13.1 15.8 18.6 21.4 23.0 23.3 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 351. 351. 351. RBAR 0.308 0.268 0.101 0.085 SDEV 0.193 0.207 0.187 0.231 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.920 0.911 0.756 0.716 NSS 25.8 28.0 27.6 27.1 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.271 0.017 1.539 10.552 0.057 0.148 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.615 0.449 -0.091 109 318 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.67 1.00 1.09 1.77 82.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 249. 110. 121. 190. 300. 417. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.148 0.180 0.200 0.102 0.174 0.074 0.075 0.072 0.029 0.081 PACF 0.148 0.162 0.161 0.036 0.112 -0.003 0.009 0.007 -0.015 0.040 95% C.L. 0.097 0.099 0.102 0.105 0.106 0.109 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.076 0.097 0.143 0.168 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 980011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009487 0.28652897 2 980012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021029 0.29979548 3 980021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002427 0.25717953 4 980022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006106 0.26866147 5 980032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018271 0.29123074 6 980041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002217 0.27270836 7 980042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000423 0.28492650 8 980051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041680 0.30429694 9 980052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009321 0.26907438 10 980061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031617 0.27456486 11 980062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013485 0.27360919 12 980071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030457 0.23407727 13 980072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003911 0.26582929 14 980081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003676 0.27420199 15 980082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001701 0.28040606 16 980091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010761 0.32676235 17 980092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024609 0.31501353 18 980101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012753 0.23078144 19 980102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002941 0.25634933 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 980111 1 0.07189203 0.01255462 0.00000000 0.24931583 21 980112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030526 0.31061652 22 980121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016718 0.29380232 23 980122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006619 0.27988413 24 980131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024597 0.34276286 25 980132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018591 0.32901862 26 980141 1 0.02956103 0.01149242 0.00000000 0.24135388 27 980142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000516 0.24472491 28 980161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007655 0.27596331 29 980162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000698 0.29598522 30 980171 1 0.06434107 0.02217827 0.00000000 0.22507396 31 980172 1 0.05253236 0.03317774 0.00000000 0.23822320 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.122 1.476 10.286 0.088 0.384 2 980012 1683 1990 308 1.000 0.109 2.470 17.731 0.081 0.367 3 980021 1607 1988 382 1.000 0.130 1.613 10.006 0.096 0.331 4 980022 1574 1990 417 1.000 0.110 0.728 5.817 0.091 0.304 5 980032 1868 1991 124 1.000 0.081 -0.083 3.165 0.059 0.483 6 980041 1608 1991 384 1.000 0.201 3.634 21.876 0.139 0.142 7 980042 1577 1991 415 1.000 0.128 2.398 13.020 0.100 0.200 8 980051 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.072 0.265 3.373 0.061 0.401 9 980052 1871 1991 121 1.000 0.080 0.157 2.594 0.054 0.592 10 980061 1573 1735 163 1.000 0.257 3.669 17.937 0.148 -0.115 11 980062 1578 1764 187 1.000 0.204 3.491 19.803 0.152 -0.092 12 980071 1567 1736 170 1.000 0.122 2.483 13.707 0.095 0.130 13 980072 1565 1922 358 1.000 0.135 2.062 13.091 0.092 0.357 14 980081 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.097 0.731 4.601 0.080 0.435 15 980082 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.100 1.160 8.222 0.083 0.238 16 980091 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.098 2.077 8.657 0.073 0.311 17 980092 1864 1991 128 1.000 0.055 0.218 2.638 0.055 0.173 18 980101 1786 1991 206 1.000 0.089 -0.020 2.885 0.075 0.401 19 980102 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.097 1.672 11.942 0.071 0.218 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 1.000 0.101 2.386 17.210 0.086 0.164 21 980112 1733 1990 258 1.000 0.107 1.713 11.657 0.083 0.283 22 980121 1699 1991 293 1.000 0.125 1.188 5.746 0.115 0.106 23 980122 1683 1991 309 1.000 0.114 1.399 6.417 0.086 0.382 24 980131 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.087 1.883 11.290 0.076 0.113 25 980132 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.081 0.433 5.746 0.071 0.263 26 980141 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.147 4.884 44.151 0.102 0.065 27 980142 1726 1991 266 1.000 0.113 1.850 9.053 0.098 0.090 28 980161 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.102 0.535 7.798 0.079 0.360 29 980162 1760 1991 232 1.000 0.100 2.359 16.257 0.086 0.057 30 980171 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.128 2.919 20.180 0.100 0.132 31 980172 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.159 4.242 26.876 0.105 0.087 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 247 1.000 0.118 1.806 12.056 0.090 0.238 STANDARD DEVIATION 87 0.000 0.041 1.289 8.703 0.024 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 249 1.000 0.109 1.713 10.286 0.086 0.238 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.000 0.031 1.705 10.952 0.024 0.243 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.055 -0.083 2.594 0.054 -0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.097 0.730 5.781 0.076 0.121 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 300 1.000 0.128 2.434 16.733 0.099 0.364 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 1.000 0.257 4.884 44.151 0.152 0.592 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 980011 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 980012 -67 206 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 980021 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 980022 -67 279 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 980032 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 980041 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 980042 -67 278 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 980051 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 980052 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 980061 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 980062 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 980071 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 980072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 980081 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 980082 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 980091 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 980092 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 980101 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 980102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 980111 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 980112 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 980121 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 980122 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 980131 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 980132 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 980141 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 980142 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 980161 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 980162 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 980171 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 980172 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 0.999 0.111 1.457 11.113 0.088 0.283 2 980012 1683 1990 308 1.000 0.099 2.443 18.298 0.081 0.249 3 980021 1607 1988 382 0.999 0.109 1.469 10.220 0.096 0.103 4 980022 1574 1990 417 1.000 0.104 0.651 6.010 0.091 0.230 5 980032 1868 1991 124 1.000 0.062 1.267 7.557 0.059 0.065 6 980041 1608 1991 384 1.000 0.195 3.494 20.615 0.139 0.115 7 980042 1577 1991 415 1.000 0.125 2.476 13.805 0.100 0.172 8 980051 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.064 0.622 4.381 0.061 0.250 9 980052 1871 1991 121 1.000 0.063 -0.056 2.977 0.054 0.353 10 980061 1573 1735 163 1.000 0.245 3.421 16.800 0.148 -0.142 11 980062 1578 1764 187 1.000 0.197 3.468 20.194 0.152 -0.138 12 980071 1567 1736 170 1.000 0.116 2.691 14.682 0.095 0.039 13 980072 1565 1922 358 1.000 0.126 2.114 14.406 0.092 0.284 14 980081 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.092 0.611 4.537 0.080 0.380 15 980082 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.093 0.758 7.877 0.083 0.145 16 980091 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.092 1.722 7.469 0.073 0.255 17 980092 1864 1991 128 1.000 0.051 0.308 2.922 0.055 0.032 18 980101 1786 1991 206 1.000 0.080 0.407 4.016 0.075 0.237 19 980102 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.094 2.575 18.443 0.071 0.145 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 1.000 0.101 2.503 18.345 0.086 0.152 21 980112 1733 1990 258 1.000 0.104 1.700 11.529 0.083 0.251 22 980121 1699 1991 293 1.000 0.120 1.477 7.263 0.115 0.025 23 980122 1683 1991 309 1.000 0.092 1.299 6.518 0.086 0.093 24 980131 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.086 2.076 12.476 0.076 0.073 25 980132 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.079 0.496 5.911 0.071 0.231 26 980141 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.145 5.183 49.036 0.102 0.044 27 980142 1726 1991 266 1.000 0.107 2.154 11.466 0.098 -0.008 28 980161 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.097 1.516 12.966 0.080 0.259 29 980162 1760 1991 232 1.000 0.099 2.303 15.789 0.086 0.046 30 980171 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.121 2.834 20.134 0.100 0.064 31 980172 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.142 4.266 30.413 0.105 -0.046 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 247 1.000 0.110 1.926 13.167 0.090 0.137 STANDARD DEVIATION 87 0.000 0.041 1.227 9.275 0.024 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 249 1.000 0.101 1.722 11.529 0.086 0.145 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.000 0.029 1.527 10.658 0.024 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.999 0.051 -0.056 2.922 0.054 -0.142 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.092 1.013 6.890 0.076 0.045 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 300 1.000 0.120 2.539 17.549 0.099 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 1.000 0.245 5.183 49.036 0.152 0.380 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 416 0.238 0.130 0.006 0.425 3.867 -0.070 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.070 SERIES 980062 AND 980082 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 980061 AND 980062 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 15. 28. 28. 36. 36. 45. 120. 153. 231. 253. RBAR 0.401 0.375 0.319 0.378 0.321 0.210 0.227 0.327 0.319 0.194 SDEV 0.200 0.152 0.190 0.197 0.168 0.230 0.199 0.204 0.217 0.180 SERR 0.052 0.029 0.036 0.033 0.028 0.034 0.018 0.016 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.834 0.836 0.816 0.870 0.861 0.807 0.846 0.912 0.915 0.849 NSS 7.5 8.5 9.5 11.0 13.1 15.8 18.6 21.4 23.0 23.3 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 351. 351. 351. RBAR 0.307 0.275 0.107 0.106 SDEV 0.191 0.198 0.171 0.195 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.919 0.914 0.767 0.762 NSS 25.8 28.0 27.6 27.1 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.993 0.055 2.002 14.072 0.054 -0.020 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.575 0.377 -0.295 171 256 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.19 1.00 1.09 2.28 317.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.015 0.062 -0.031 0.059 -0.058 -0.001 -0.018 -0.040 0.014 PACF -0.019 0.014 0.063 -0.029 0.057 -0.059 0.000 -0.025 -0.030 0.007 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.034 -0.009 0.058 -0.013 0.018 -0.071 -0.036 0.067 -0.063 0.005 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.034 2 -0.034 -0.011 3 -0.034 -0.009 0.057 4 -0.033 -0.009 0.057 -0.009 5 -0.033 -0.010 0.057 -0.008 0.019 6 -0.032 -0.010 0.061 -0.009 0.016 -0.073 7 -0.035 -0.010 0.061 -0.007 0.016 -0.075 -0.039 8 -0.032 -0.005 0.060 -0.006 0.012 -0.074 -0.037 0.062 9 -0.029 -0.007 0.056 -0.006 0.012 -0.071 -0.037 0.060 -0.051 10 -0.029 -0.007 0.056 -0.005 0.012 -0.071 -0.038 0.060 -0.051 0.005 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2736.90 2738.41 2740.36 2740.97 2742.94 2744.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2744.48 2745.82 2746.18 2747.06 2749.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 980011 0 0.080 2 980012 0 0.062 3 980021 0 0.011 4 980022 0 0.053 5 980032 0 0.005 6 980041 0 0.013 7 980042 0 0.030 8 980051 0 0.063 9 980052 0 0.125 10 980061 0 0.021 11 980062 0 0.019 12 980071 0 0.002 13 980072 0 0.081 14 980081 0 0.147 15 980082 0 0.021 16 980091 0 0.072 17 980092 0 0.001 18 980101 0 0.060 19 980102 0 0.021 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 980111 0 0.023 21 980112 0 0.064 22 980121 0 0.001 23 980122 0 0.009 24 980131 0 0.005 25 980132 0 0.054 26 980141 0 0.002 27 980142 0 0.000 28 980161 0 0.067 29 980162 0 0.002 30 980171 0 0.004 31 980172 0 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.036 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.038 MEDIAN 0 0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.058 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.005 UPPER HINGE 0 0.063 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.147 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.111 1.457 11.113 0.088 0.283 2 980012 1683 1990 308 1.000 0.099 2.443 18.298 0.081 0.249 3 980021 1607 1988 382 1.000 0.109 1.469 10.220 0.096 0.103 4 980022 1574 1990 417 1.000 0.104 0.651 6.010 0.091 0.230 5 980032 1868 1991 124 1.000 0.062 1.267 7.557 0.059 0.065 6 980041 1608 1991 384 1.000 0.195 3.494 20.615 0.139 0.115 7 980042 1577 1991 415 1.000 0.125 2.476 13.805 0.100 0.172 8 980051 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.064 0.622 4.381 0.061 0.250 9 980052 1871 1991 121 1.000 0.063 -0.056 2.977 0.054 0.353 10 980061 1573 1735 163 1.000 0.245 3.421 16.800 0.148 -0.142 11 980062 1578 1764 187 1.000 0.197 3.468 20.194 0.152 -0.138 12 980071 1567 1736 170 1.000 0.116 2.691 14.682 0.095 0.039 13 980072 1565 1922 358 1.000 0.126 2.114 14.406 0.092 0.284 14 980081 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.092 0.611 4.537 0.080 0.380 15 980082 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.093 0.758 7.877 0.083 0.145 16 980091 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.092 1.722 7.469 0.073 0.255 17 980092 1864 1991 128 1.000 0.051 0.308 2.922 0.055 0.032 18 980101 1786 1991 206 1.000 0.080 0.407 4.016 0.075 0.237 19 980102 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.094 2.575 18.443 0.071 0.145 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 1.000 0.101 2.503 18.345 0.086 0.152 21 980112 1733 1990 258 1.000 0.104 1.700 11.529 0.083 0.251 22 980121 1699 1991 293 1.000 0.120 1.477 7.263 0.115 0.025 23 980122 1683 1991 309 1.000 0.092 1.299 6.518 0.086 0.093 24 980131 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.086 2.076 12.476 0.076 0.073 25 980132 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.079 0.496 5.911 0.071 0.231 26 980141 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.145 5.183 49.036 0.102 0.044 27 980142 1726 1991 266 1.000 0.107 2.154 11.466 0.098 -0.008 28 980161 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.097 1.516 12.966 0.079 0.259 29 980162 1760 1991 232 1.000 0.099 2.303 15.789 0.086 0.046 30 980171 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.121 2.834 20.134 0.100 0.064 31 980172 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.142 4.266 30.413 0.105 -0.046 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 247 1.000 0.110 1.926 13.167 0.090 0.137 STANDARD DEVIATION 87 0.000 0.041 1.227 9.275 0.024 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 249 1.000 0.101 1.722 11.529 0.086 0.145 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.000 0.029 1.527 10.658 0.024 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.051 -0.056 2.922 0.054 -0.142 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.092 1.013 6.890 0.076 0.045 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 300 1.000 0.120 2.539 17.549 0.099 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 1.000 0.245 5.183 49.036 0.152 0.380 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 416 0.238 0.130 0.006 0.425 3.867 -0.070 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.070 SERIES 980062 AND 980082 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 980061 AND 980062 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 15. 28. 28. 36. 36. 45. 120. 153. 231. 253. RBAR 0.401 0.375 0.319 0.378 0.321 0.210 0.227 0.327 0.319 0.194 SDEV 0.200 0.152 0.190 0.197 0.168 0.230 0.199 0.204 0.217 0.180 SERR 0.052 0.029 0.036 0.033 0.028 0.034 0.018 0.016 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.834 0.836 0.816 0.870 0.861 0.807 0.846 0.912 0.915 0.849 NSS 7.5 8.5 9.5 11.0 13.1 15.8 18.6 21.4 23.0 23.3 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 351. 351. 351. RBAR 0.307 0.275 0.107 0.106 SDEV 0.191 0.198 0.171 0.195 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.919 0.914 0.767 0.762 NSS 25.8 28.0 27.6 27.1 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.994 0.055 2.003 14.073 0.054 -0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.575 0.377 -0.295 171 256 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.19 1.00 1.09 2.27 308.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.015 0.062 -0.031 0.060 -0.058 -0.001 -0.019 -0.040 0.014 PACF -0.019 0.014 0.063 -0.029 0.057 -0.059 0.000 -0.026 -0.030 0.007 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.994 0.055 2.003 14.073 0.054 -0.019 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.015 0.062 -0.031 0.060 -0.058 -0.001 -0.019 -0.040 0.014 PACF -0.019 0.014 0.063 -0.029 0.057 -0.059 0.000 -0.026 -0.030 0.007 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES