RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS117W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS117W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 988 1 Krasnovishersk WIDTH_RING LASI - 988 2 Russia Siberian larch 140 6023-5707 1730 1991 - 988 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 988011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 1 GAPS / 1859 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 988012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 1 GAPS / 1829 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 988042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 988071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 4 GAPS / 1768 1774 / 1802 1802 / 1844 1844 / 1888 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 988072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1960 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 988081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1853 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 988092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 3 GAPS / 1843 1843 / 1915 1915 / 1975 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 988101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1809 1809 / 1955 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 988102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1828 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 988112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 2 GAPS / 1814 1832 / 1858 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 988122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1886 1886 / 1906 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 988131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1935 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 988151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1852 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 988152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 988162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1848 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 988011 1781 1991 211 1.005 0.547 1.901 8.213 0.295 0.743 2 988012 1773 1991 219 0.978 0.531 1.497 6.256 0.271 0.781 3 988031 1815 1991 177 1.156 0.578 2.178 12.664 0.300 0.650 4 988032 1827 1991 165 1.029 0.571 2.289 8.906 0.250 0.776 5 988041 1817 1987 171 0.934 0.425 0.674 2.982 0.188 0.862 6 988042 1810 1991 182 1.024 0.539 1.081 4.919 0.192 0.841 7 988051 1814 1991 178 1.125 0.592 1.951 9.687 0.246 0.769 8 988052 1813 1991 179 1.054 0.465 1.010 3.550 0.242 0.797 9 988071 1741 1991 251 0.903 0.472 1.566 6.132 0.213 0.868 10 988072 1797 1991 195 1.028 0.427 1.420 7.483 0.230 0.690 11 988081 1790 1991 202 0.748 0.324 0.707 3.293 0.297 0.647 12 988082 1787 1991 205 0.816 0.386 0.869 3.742 0.332 0.527 13 988091 1833 1991 159 0.989 0.426 0.413 3.109 0.337 0.591 14 988092 1832 1991 160 1.120 0.493 0.967 4.960 0.292 0.633 15 988101 1798 1991 194 0.714 0.296 0.342 2.689 0.281 0.712 16 988102 1796 1989 194 0.733 0.313 0.841 3.514 0.256 0.720 17 988111 1790 1991 202 0.871 0.446 0.956 3.704 0.237 0.813 18 988112 1790 1991 202 0.916 0.479 0.956 3.559 0.245 0.790 19 988121 1730 1991 262 0.954 0.735 1.572 5.240 0.244 0.906 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 988122 1755 1991 237 1.033 0.811 1.351 4.289 0.212 0.930 21 988131 1799 1991 193 0.993 0.514 0.797 3.807 0.293 0.788 22 988132 1797 1991 195 1.008 0.545 1.029 4.365 0.278 0.805 23 988141 1859 1991 133 1.001 0.587 2.021 9.451 0.297 0.708 24 988142 1794 1991 198 0.883 0.378 0.143 2.902 0.307 0.656 25 988151 1811 1991 181 1.075 0.430 -0.034 3.111 0.268 0.714 26 988152 1821 1991 171 0.866 0.296 -0.048 3.428 0.292 0.545 27 988161 1813 1991 179 1.136 0.690 1.365 4.473 0.317 0.773 28 988162 1796 1991 196 1.125 0.698 0.915 3.005 0.307 0.805 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1730 TO 1991 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 189 0.972 0.500 1.097 5.123 0.269 0.744 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.122 0.131 0.634 2.563 0.040 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 189 0.997 0.486 0.989 4.048 0.275 0.771 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.150 0.149 0.779 2.834 0.054 0.133 MINIMUM VALUE 133 0.714 0.296 -0.048 2.689 0.188 0.527 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 175 0.893 0.425 0.752 3.360 0.243 0.673 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 199 1.044 0.574 1.532 6.194 0.297 0.805 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.156 0.811 2.289 12.664 0.337 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.400 0.178 0.009 0.009 3.468 -0.142 0.955 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.142 SERIES 988071 AND 988142 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.955 SERIES 988111 AND 988112 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 36. 231. 351. 378. 378. 378. 351. RBAR 0.914 0.604 0.357 0.308 0.315 0.575 0.589 0.514 SDEV 0.046 0.160 0.267 0.258 0.273 0.200 0.171 0.243 SERR 0.026 0.027 0.018 0.014 0.014 0.010 0.009 0.013 EPS 0.990 0.968 0.935 0.925 0.928 0.974 0.976 0.967 NSS 9.4 19.7 26.0 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.842 0.402 0.531 3.596 0.207 0.851 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.817 0.414 -0.028 83 179 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.45 1.00 1.08 1.53 12.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 24. 133. 178. 202. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.847 0.769 0.693 0.630 0.566 0.516 0.448 0.409 0.377 0.324 PACF 0.847 0.180 0.023 0.018 -0.015 0.020 -0.074 0.045 0.036 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.124 0.193 0.235 0.264 0.286 0.303 0.316 0.326 0.333 0.340 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.728 0.702 0.172 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 988011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197918 0.85454994 2 988012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00255316 0.69562835 3 988031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291111 1.41519070 4 988032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00226968 0.84094971 5 988041 1 0.93904597 0.03195764 0.00000000 0.76594800 6 988042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00252465 1.31757462 7 988051 1 0.66201216 0.04948532 0.00000000 1.05125022 8 988052 1 1.47292292 0.03620926 0.00000000 0.83148718 9 988071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043993 0.93639749 10 988072 1 1.21892023 0.03899840 0.00000000 0.86003834 11 988081 1 0.29728389 0.02686767 0.00000000 0.69262403 12 988082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00247879 1.07131565 13 988091 1 0.68422258 0.11082281 0.00000000 0.95189828 14 988092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00305366 0.86362690 15 988101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086141 0.62956995 16 988102 1 0.65273768 0.02412874 0.00000000 0.59933215 17 988111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00155380 1.02884889 18 988112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158467 1.06475317 19 988121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100857 1.08625257 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 988122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00279787 1.35823381 21 988131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00187487 1.18355131 22 988132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075797 1.08258843 23 988141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061691 1.04215991 24 988142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00289444 0.59528637 25 988151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026992 1.08950937 26 988152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074955 0.92858994 27 988161 1 1.65840638 0.07580113 0.00000000 1.01821589 28 988162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00771982 1.88265109 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 988011 1781 1991 211 0.999 0.589 1.916 8.329 0.323 0.696 2 988012 1773 1991 219 0.999 0.500 1.103 4.351 0.263 0.748 3 988031 1815 1991 177 0.999 0.502 3.114 19.621 0.298 0.633 4 988032 1827 1991 165 0.999 0.519 1.943 7.299 0.248 0.750 5 988041 1817 1987 171 1.000 0.443 1.735 6.990 0.187 0.844 6 988042 1810 1991 182 0.999 0.598 1.700 5.678 0.189 0.886 7 988051 1814 1991 178 1.000 0.538 2.489 12.561 0.245 0.755 8 988052 1813 1991 179 1.000 0.318 0.602 3.723 0.240 0.623 9 988071 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.521 1.455 5.761 0.216 0.864 10 988072 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.328 0.424 2.727 0.228 0.631 11 988081 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.426 0.826 4.029 0.297 0.638 12 988082 1787 1991 205 0.998 0.429 0.979 5.027 0.331 0.502 13 988091 1833 1991 159 1.000 0.426 0.557 3.685 0.335 0.573 14 988092 1832 1991 160 0.999 0.416 0.701 4.057 0.293 0.608 15 988101 1798 1991 194 1.000 0.416 0.476 2.905 0.278 0.713 16 988102 1796 1989 194 1.000 0.362 0.454 3.243 0.253 0.645 17 988111 1790 1991 202 0.999 0.494 0.809 3.012 0.236 0.813 18 988112 1790 1991 202 0.999 0.491 0.887 3.319 0.230 0.789 19 988121 1730 1991 262 0.998 0.732 1.411 4.806 0.243 0.898 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 988122 1755 1991 237 0.991 0.679 1.011 3.469 0.216 0.900 21 988131 1799 1991 193 0.998 0.516 1.087 5.073 0.296 0.755 22 988132 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.544 1.157 4.869 0.277 0.805 23 988141 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.595 2.123 9.900 0.294 0.704 24 988142 1794 1991 198 0.998 0.410 0.288 2.724 0.306 0.598 25 988151 1811 1991 181 1.000 0.410 -0.075 3.044 0.270 0.736 26 988152 1821 1991 171 1.000 0.338 -0.032 3.612 0.292 0.523 27 988161 1813 1991 179 1.000 0.602 2.045 7.630 0.314 0.736 28 988162 1796 1991 196 1.002 0.512 1.835 8.131 0.308 0.679 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 193 0.999 0.488 1.179 5.699 0.268 0.716 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.102 0.774 3.640 0.041 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.497 1.049 4.578 0.273 0.724 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.001 0.125 1.205 3.751 0.059 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 133 0.991 0.318 -0.075 2.724 0.187 0.502 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 177 0.999 0.416 0.579 3.394 0.238 0.632 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.541 1.785 7.144 0.298 0.797 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.002 0.732 3.114 19.621 0.335 0.900 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 988011 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 988012 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 988031 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 988032 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 988041 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 988042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 988051 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 988052 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 988071 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 988072 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 988081 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 988082 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 988091 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 988092 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 988101 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 988102 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 988111 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 988112 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 988121 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 988122 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 988131 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 988132 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 988141 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 988142 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 988151 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 988152 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 988161 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 988162 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 988011 1781 1991 211 0.989 0.550 1.719 7.241 0.323 0.668 2 988012 1773 1991 219 0.983 0.450 1.111 4.491 0.263 0.706 3 988031 1815 1991 177 0.992 0.460 2.933 18.940 0.299 0.592 4 988032 1827 1991 165 0.983 0.412 1.390 5.449 0.248 0.666 5 988041 1817 1987 171 0.986 0.357 1.174 5.213 0.188 0.776 6 988042 1810 1991 182 0.972 0.435 1.017 4.147 0.190 0.832 7 988051 1814 1991 178 0.984 0.445 2.355 12.609 0.245 0.697 8 988052 1813 1991 179 0.996 0.290 0.367 3.546 0.240 0.554 9 988071 1741 1991 251 0.982 0.425 1.417 5.661 0.217 0.793 10 988072 1797 1991 195 0.996 0.311 0.362 2.675 0.228 0.592 11 988081 1790 1991 202 0.994 0.401 1.011 5.189 0.297 0.588 12 988082 1787 1991 205 0.996 0.411 0.834 4.569 0.331 0.456 13 988091 1833 1991 159 0.993 0.398 0.316 3.325 0.334 0.532 14 988092 1832 1991 160 0.994 0.377 0.379 3.425 0.293 0.556 15 988101 1798 1991 194 0.994 0.379 0.182 2.699 0.277 0.656 16 988102 1796 1989 194 0.996 0.338 0.284 3.074 0.253 0.605 17 988111 1790 1991 202 0.981 0.419 0.680 2.939 0.236 0.766 18 988112 1790 1991 202 0.984 0.429 0.887 3.948 0.230 0.744 19 988121 1730 1991 262 1.006 0.644 2.057 11.749 0.244 0.692 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 988122 1755 1991 237 0.961 0.549 1.039 3.845 0.217 0.855 21 988131 1799 1991 193 0.992 0.452 0.866 5.147 0.297 0.704 22 988132 1797 1991 195 0.992 0.466 0.839 4.363 0.277 0.746 23 988141 1859 1991 133 0.991 0.435 1.635 9.483 0.296 0.576 24 988142 1794 1991 198 0.997 0.397 0.258 2.769 0.306 0.573 25 988151 1811 1991 181 0.996 0.402 -0.002 3.029 0.270 0.719 26 988152 1821 1991 171 0.996 0.318 -0.162 3.644 0.291 0.460 27 988161 1813 1991 179 0.990 0.498 1.634 6.225 0.314 0.677 28 988162 1796 1991 196 0.994 0.475 1.583 6.927 0.308 0.655 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 193 0.990 0.426 1.006 5.583 0.268 0.658 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.009 0.076 0.737 3.652 0.041 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.992 0.422 0.949 4.427 0.274 0.667 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.012 0.068 1.136 2.568 0.060 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 133 0.961 0.290 -0.162 2.675 0.188 0.456 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 177 0.984 0.388 0.364 3.375 0.238 0.582 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 0.996 0.456 1.500 5.943 0.298 0.732 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.006 0.644 2.933 18.940 0.334 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.446 0.139 0.007 0.219 3.241 0.115 0.941 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.115 SERIES 988011 AND 988142 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.941 SERIES 988111 AND 988112 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 36. 231. 351. 378. 378. 378. 351. RBAR 0.898 0.640 0.339 0.346 0.334 0.598 0.580 0.465 SDEV 0.055 0.172 0.255 0.244 0.244 0.168 0.170 0.220 SERR 0.032 0.029 0.017 0.013 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.012 EPS 0.988 0.972 0.930 0.936 0.934 0.977 0.975 0.960 NSS 9.4 19.7 26.0 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.982 0.535 2.030 12.499 0.242 0.669 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.264 0.065 0.198 67 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.37 1.00 1.07 1.44 4.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.666 0.653 0.558 0.484 0.413 0.353 0.238 0.183 0.193 0.104 PACF 0.666 0.376 0.075 -0.016 -0.027 -0.015 -0.138 -0.053 0.143 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.124 0.170 0.205 0.227 0.242 0.252 0.260 0.263 0.265 0.267 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.590 0.503 0.317 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.709 0.563 0.430 0.376 0.328 0.294 0.175 0.161 0.118 0.031 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.709 2 0.622 0.122 3 0.624 0.131 -0.014 4 0.625 0.119 -0.069 0.088 5 0.622 0.122 -0.074 0.065 0.038 6 0.621 0.120 -0.072 0.062 0.022 0.025 7 0.625 0.124 -0.062 0.050 0.041 0.123 -0.157 8 0.638 0.113 -0.066 0.046 0.046 0.112 -0.211 0.086 9 0.640 0.110 -0.064 0.047 0.047 0.111 -0.209 0.096 -0.017 10 0.637 0.125 -0.097 0.064 0.055 0.118 -0.219 0.114 0.085 -0.159 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2449.67 2268.76 2266.81 2268.76 2268.71 2270.34 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2272.17 2267.62 2267.69 2269.62 2264.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.622 0.122 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 50.99 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 204.05 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.622 0.509 0.393 0.307 0.239 0.186 0.145 0.113 0.088 0.0686 0.053 0.042 0.032 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.0057 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 988011 2 0.466 0.700 -0.039 2 988012 2 0.512 0.662 0.069 3 988031 2 0.375 0.678 -0.136 4 988032 2 0.461 0.559 0.162 5 988041 2 0.632 0.660 0.158 6 988042 2 0.698 0.852 -0.021 7 988051 2 0.507 0.774 -0.107 8 988052 2 0.319 0.502 0.100 9 988071 2 0.649 0.779 0.033 10 988072 2 0.365 0.550 0.084 11 988081 2 0.359 0.513 0.131 12 988082 2 0.263 0.348 0.243 13 988091 2 0.292 0.475 0.109 14 988092 2 0.316 0.510 0.083 15 988101 2 0.457 0.543 0.174 16 988102 2 0.388 0.530 0.136 17 988111 2 0.595 0.671 0.125 18 988112 2 0.560 0.682 0.086 19 988121 2 0.627 0.517 0.322 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 988122 2 0.736 0.810 0.056 21 988131 2 0.513 0.601 0.151 22 988132 2 0.576 0.717 0.054 23 988141 2 0.345 0.545 0.065 24 988142 2 0.345 0.554 0.041 25 988151 2 0.538 0.717 0.020 26 988152 2 0.263 0.358 0.227 27 988161 2 0.466 0.608 0.104 28 988162 2 0.451 0.562 0.147 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.467 0.606 0.092 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.134 0.125 0.098 MEDIAN 2 0.463 0.582 0.093 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.216 0.167 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.263 0.348 -0.136 LOWER HINGE 2 0.352 0.524 0.048 UPPER HINGE 2 0.568 0.691 0.149 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.736 0.852 0.322 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 988011 1781 1991 211 1.002 0.399 1.473 9.577 0.406 0.016 2 988012 1773 1991 219 1.001 0.313 0.453 5.126 0.344 0.006 3 988031 1815 1991 177 1.000 0.364 1.780 14.248 0.388 -0.015 4 988032 1827 1991 165 1.000 0.303 0.928 5.322 0.315 0.003 5 988041 1817 1987 171 1.000 0.219 0.453 3.869 0.244 -0.020 6 988042 1810 1991 182 1.000 0.240 0.479 6.887 0.262 0.004 7 988051 1814 1991 178 1.000 0.316 2.348 17.065 0.326 0.016 8 988052 1813 1991 179 1.000 0.239 0.029 3.235 0.287 0.004 9 988071 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.250 0.678 4.307 0.274 -0.011 10 988072 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.247 0.539 3.049 0.277 -0.005 11 988081 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.320 0.399 4.321 0.357 0.000 12 988082 1787 1991 205 1.002 0.346 0.275 3.812 0.371 0.053 13 988091 1833 1991 159 1.000 0.335 0.290 4.378 0.380 0.002 14 988092 1832 1991 160 1.000 0.312 0.548 4.096 0.346 -0.004 15 988101 1798 1991 194 1.000 0.281 0.089 3.160 0.327 0.021 16 988102 1796 1989 194 1.000 0.264 0.176 2.990 0.304 0.003 17 988111 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.266 0.288 4.147 0.292 0.005 18 988112 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.284 0.511 5.702 0.290 -0.003 19 988121 1730 1991 262 1.008 0.340 2.214 15.080 0.290 0.037 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 988122 1755 1991 237 1.000 0.282 1.273 8.796 0.277 -0.002 21 988131 1799 1991 193 1.002 0.309 0.453 4.869 0.333 0.018 22 988132 1797 1991 195 1.000 0.301 0.576 3.963 0.324 -0.009 23 988141 1859 1991 133 1.000 0.352 1.963 14.158 0.359 0.007 24 988142 1794 1991 198 1.000 0.323 -0.021 3.269 0.373 0.001 25 988151 1811 1991 181 1.000 0.273 0.222 3.008 0.300 -0.004 26 988152 1821 1991 171 1.000 0.274 0.053 3.806 0.307 -0.025 27 988161 1813 1991 179 1.001 0.362 1.131 6.890 0.399 0.000 28 988162 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.353 0.999 6.010 0.383 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 193 1.001 0.302 0.736 6.255 0.326 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.045 0.672 4.064 0.045 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.306 0.495 4.349 0.325 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.000 0.068 0.783 3.079 0.075 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 133 1.000 0.219 -0.021 2.990 0.244 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 177 1.000 0.269 0.282 3.809 0.290 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.337 1.065 6.889 0.365 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.008 0.399 2.348 17.065 0.406 0.053 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.407 0.099 0.005 0.829 5.558 0.136 0.878 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.136 SERIES 988111 AND 988142 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.878 SERIES 988131 AND 988132 193 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 36. 231. 351. 378. 378. 378. 351. RBAR 0.604 0.504 0.283 0.373 0.456 0.560 0.478 0.441 SDEV 0.253 0.179 0.194 0.168 0.132 0.123 0.133 0.139 SERR 0.146 0.030 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.935 0.953 0.911 0.943 0.959 0.973 0.962 0.957 NSS 9.4 19.7 26.0 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.992 0.280 1.682 12.339 0.264 -0.043 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.068 0.117 87 175 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.45 1.00 1.09 1.54 7.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.043 0.045 0.074 0.048 0.053 0.129 -0.119 -0.049 0.125 -0.046 PACF -0.043 0.043 0.078 0.053 0.051 0.126 -0.122 -0.085 0.110 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.131 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.008 0.078 0.045 0.063 0.128 -0.126 -0.053 0.129 -0.041 PACF 0.001 -0.008 0.078 0.045 0.065 0.124 -0.133 -0.066 0.106 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.131 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.008 0.001 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 1.001 0.459 1.606 7.763 0.202 0.748 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.745 0.630 0.547 0.457 0.376 0.297 0.171 0.133 0.135 0.056 PACF 0.745 0.169 0.072 -0.018 -0.022 -0.041 -0.164 0.058 0.112 -0.119 95% C.L. 0.124 0.179 0.211 0.231 0.245 0.253 0.259 0.260 0.261 0.262 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.646 0.710 0.112 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES