RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS126L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS126L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 014 1 Bilibina,Mali Anuj river WIDTH_LATE LADA - 014 2 Russia Larch 450 6728-16740 1432 1991 - 014 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 014011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 3 GAPS / 1696 1696 / 1944 1948 / 1952 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 014012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 4 GAPS / 1640 1641 / 1695 1695 / 1841 1841 / 1924 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 014031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 4 GAPS / 1535 1539 / 1585 1596 / 1724 1725 / 1929 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 014032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 85 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1868 / 1908 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 014041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1846 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 014052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 014071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1902 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 014072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1935 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 014081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1926 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 014091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1850 1854 / 1953 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 014092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 3 GAPS / 1875 1879 / 1920 1924 / 1933 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 014101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1852 1856 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 014102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 3 GAPS / 1561 1565 / 1601 1606 / 1834 1834 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 014111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1894 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 014112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1940 1944 / 1986 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 014131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 2 GAPS / 1879 1884 / 1886 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 014132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1985 1989 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 014141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 27 IN 4 GAPS / 1478 1484 / 1509 1514 / 1684 1692 / 1913 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 014142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 204 IN 5 GAPS / 1558 1563 / 1682 1864 / 1869 1873 / 1889 1893 / / 1918 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 014151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 014152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 74 IN 3 GAPS / 1630 1634 / 1648 1677 / 1908 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 0.063 0.032 2.003 10.119 0.369 0.487 2 014012 1459 1991 533 0.060 0.028 1.108 4.794 0.347 0.557 3 014031 1516 1990 475 0.053 0.026 0.966 4.461 0.394 0.536 4 014032 1588 1991 404 0.069 0.043 1.535 6.381 0.453 0.539 5 014041 1501 1961 461 0.062 0.042 3.705 22.745 0.375 0.711 6 014042 1565 1949 385 0.070 0.037 1.307 6.146 0.382 0.521 7 014051 1754 1990 237 0.097 0.062 2.373 11.026 0.341 0.718 8 014052 1711 1990 280 0.082 0.039 1.562 7.396 0.338 0.567 9 014061 1605 1957 353 0.074 0.036 2.684 18.696 0.338 0.520 10 014062 1605 1991 387 0.073 0.044 3.311 19.874 0.358 0.534 11 014071 1593 1991 399 0.092 0.070 3.163 17.467 0.313 0.751 12 014072 1629 1991 363 0.077 0.044 1.598 5.700 0.301 0.721 13 014081 1592 1990 399 0.055 0.032 1.929 8.699 0.433 0.476 14 014091 1600 1991 392 0.082 0.052 2.593 12.408 0.317 0.737 15 014092 1599 1991 393 0.104 0.089 2.121 7.804 0.329 0.785 16 014101 1492 1863 372 0.069 0.041 2.060 8.784 0.370 0.572 17 014102 1529 1991 463 0.054 0.023 1.453 8.290 0.327 0.512 18 014111 1663 1991 329 0.084 0.062 2.453 11.110 0.311 0.761 19 014112 1670 1991 322 0.095 0.097 2.559 10.808 0.401 0.673 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 0.128 0.151 2.702 10.536 0.324 0.764 21 014132 1691 1990 300 0.105 0.076 1.792 6.230 0.344 0.627 22 014141 1432 1989 558 0.055 0.033 1.802 6.842 0.322 0.737 23 014142 1434 1981 548 0.070 0.047 1.269 3.973 0.339 0.767 24 014151 1482 1991 510 0.100 0.091 2.630 11.493 0.455 0.695 25 014152 1515 1966 452 0.076 0.059 5.311 45.863 0.409 0.653 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1432 TO 1991 560 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 0.078 0.054 2.240 11.506 0.360 0.637 STANDARD DEVIATION 83 0.019 0.029 0.951 8.695 0.044 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 378 0.074 0.044 2.060 8.784 0.344 0.653 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 127 0.029 0.027 1.068 5.112 0.056 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 237 0.053 0.023 0.966 3.973 0.301 0.476 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 324 0.063 0.036 1.562 6.381 0.327 0.536 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 451 0.092 0.062 2.630 11.493 0.382 0.737 MAXIMUM VALUE 531 0.128 0.151 5.311 45.863 0.455 0.785 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.259 0.207 0.012 -0.114 2.769 -0.274 0.818 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.274 SERIES 014132 AND 014151 300 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.818 SERIES 014141 AND 014142 548 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. CORR 6. 10. 28. 45. 55. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.457 0.306 0.223 0.419 0.413 0.302 0.282 0.370 0.419 0.354 SDEV 0.242 0.176 0.323 0.177 0.173 0.189 0.246 0.203 0.160 0.224 SERR 0.099 0.056 0.061 0.026 0.023 0.023 0.020 0.016 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.820 0.778 0.736 0.884 0.904 0.881 0.881 0.921 0.940 0.928 NSS 5.4 7.9 9.7 10.5 13.5 17.1 18.8 19.9 21.9 23.5 YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 276. 276. 300. 300. 276. 276. 276. 276. 210. 153. RBAR 0.287 0.360 0.414 0.439 0.358 0.335 0.300 0.284 0.332 0.349 SDEV 0.214 0.185 0.184 0.183 0.185 0.171 0.195 0.197 0.171 0.150 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.907 0.933 0.946 0.951 0.933 0.925 0.911 0.905 0.921 0.919 NSS 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 24.0 23.5 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 0.067 0.024 0.958 4.125 0.242 0.627 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.722 0.501 -0.004 349 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.53 4.61 1.00 1.40 6.02 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 393. 110. 237. 353. 463. 558. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.626 0.491 0.470 0.423 0.397 0.356 0.380 0.376 0.339 0.347 PACF 0.626 0.163 0.187 0.074 0.082 0.019 0.124 0.058 0.013 0.064 95% C.L. 0.085 0.113 0.127 0.139 0.148 0.155 0.161 0.167 0.173 0.178 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.444 0.462 0.043 0.152 0.041 0.096 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 014011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005465 0.07753702 2 014012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009089 0.08407071 3 014031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002142 0.05763046 4 014032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008438 0.08118563 5 014041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007907 0.08016875 6 014042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003587 0.07655844 7 014051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007137 0.08872238 8 014052 1 0.02835917 0.00680091 0.00000000 0.06882073 9 014061 1 0.04874681 0.00745137 0.00000000 0.05697623 10 014062 1 0.08801973 0.00294277 0.00000000 0.02024893 11 014071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016573 0.12481906 12 014072 1 0.11495257 0.00875524 0.00000000 0.04225529 13 014081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009160 0.03635081 14 014091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019587 0.11960339 15 014092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022605 0.14586544 16 014101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006660 0.08117557 17 014102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001706 0.04912494 18 014111 1 0.16122511 0.00464851 0.00000000 0.00090853 19 014112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056891 0.18581906 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 014131 1 0.58280206 0.02810136 0.00000000 0.04483862 21 014132 1 0.21886162 0.00844885 0.00000000 0.02432783 22 014141 1 0.08287796 0.00663271 0.00000000 0.03391353 23 014142 1 0.12642896 0.00883295 0.00000000 0.03130128 24 014151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025030 0.03571065 25 014152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010048 0.05622322 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 0.999 0.464 1.766 9.409 0.365 0.417 2 014012 1459 1991 533 0.998 0.389 0.723 3.802 0.350 0.345 3 014031 1516 1990 475 0.999 0.492 0.949 4.422 0.392 0.540 4 014032 1588 1991 404 0.996 0.562 1.383 6.361 0.452 0.484 5 014041 1501 1961 461 0.998 0.608 3.159 18.318 0.374 0.644 6 014042 1565 1949 385 1.000 0.525 1.428 6.860 0.381 0.514 7 014051 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.629 2.263 10.478 0.339 0.707 8 014052 1711 1990 280 1.000 0.473 1.585 7.744 0.335 0.550 9 014061 1605 1957 353 1.000 0.438 2.591 18.254 0.337 0.408 10 014062 1605 1991 387 1.000 0.516 3.501 23.159 0.357 0.431 11 014071 1593 1991 399 0.998 0.674 3.255 19.753 0.313 0.718 12 014072 1629 1991 363 1.000 0.368 0.464 3.303 0.300 0.477 13 014081 1592 1990 399 1.002 0.514 1.200 5.109 0.437 0.404 14 014091 1600 1991 392 1.003 0.481 1.964 11.142 0.312 0.618 15 014092 1599 1991 393 0.982 0.792 2.464 9.810 0.331 0.767 16 014101 1492 1863 372 0.998 0.565 1.825 7.568 0.370 0.559 17 014102 1529 1991 463 1.000 0.425 1.466 8.157 0.329 0.507 18 014111 1663 1991 329 1.012 0.502 1.560 7.170 0.309 0.643 19 014112 1670 1991 322 1.380 2.198 6.954 65.326 0.399 0.660 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 1.002 0.391 1.097 4.737 0.325 0.372 21 014132 1691 1990 300 0.996 0.413 1.705 9.715 0.341 0.279 22 014141 1432 1989 558 1.001 0.413 0.809 4.399 0.316 0.518 23 014142 1434 1981 548 1.003 0.415 0.867 3.968 0.327 0.510 24 014151 1482 1991 510 1.074 0.855 1.621 5.358 0.452 0.703 25 014152 1515 1966 452 1.006 0.722 3.258 20.510 0.408 0.658 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 405 1.018 0.593 1.994 11.793 0.358 0.537 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.077 0.358 1.336 12.582 0.044 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 393 1.000 0.502 1.621 7.744 0.341 0.518 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.004 0.183 1.264 6.033 0.054 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 237 0.982 0.368 0.464 3.303 0.300 0.279 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 0.998 0.425 1.200 5.109 0.327 0.431 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 463 1.002 0.608 2.464 11.142 0.381 0.644 MAXIMUM VALUE 558 1.380 2.198 6.954 65.326 0.452 0.767 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 014011 -67 362 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 014012 -67 357 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 014031 -67 318 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 014032 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 014041 -67 308 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 014042 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 014051 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 014052 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 014061 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 014062 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 014071 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 014072 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 014081 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 014091 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 014092 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 014101 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 014102 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 014111 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 014112 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 014131 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 014132 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 014141 -67 373 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 014142 -67 367 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 014151 -67 341 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 014152 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 0.999 0.443 1.456 7.450 0.365 0.390 2 014012 1459 1991 533 0.998 0.382 0.702 3.846 0.350 0.319 3 014031 1516 1990 475 0.996 0.406 0.334 3.465 0.392 0.375 4 014032 1588 1991 404 0.982 0.436 0.671 4.482 0.452 0.267 5 014041 1501 1961 461 0.996 0.554 2.668 15.124 0.374 0.594 6 014042 1565 1949 385 0.998 0.515 1.369 6.628 0.382 0.506 7 014051 1754 1990 237 0.996 0.622 2.417 11.754 0.339 0.705 8 014052 1711 1990 280 0.998 0.461 1.465 6.969 0.335 0.532 9 014061 1605 1957 353 0.999 0.431 2.417 16.642 0.337 0.392 10 014062 1605 1991 387 0.996 0.486 3.109 20.103 0.357 0.403 11 014071 1593 1991 399 0.979 0.548 2.710 15.970 0.314 0.645 12 014072 1629 1991 363 0.997 0.355 0.454 3.407 0.300 0.437 13 014081 1592 1990 399 0.992 0.484 1.316 5.858 0.438 0.347 14 014091 1600 1991 392 0.985 0.406 1.618 9.365 0.312 0.504 15 014092 1599 1991 393 0.980 0.540 1.475 5.685 0.332 0.655 16 014101 1492 1863 372 0.996 0.512 1.776 8.230 0.370 0.468 17 014102 1529 1991 463 0.997 0.386 1.156 7.221 0.329 0.419 18 014111 1663 1991 329 0.984 0.383 1.626 8.996 0.309 0.436 19 014112 1670 1991 322 1.010 0.579 1.942 8.934 0.399 0.421 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 0.998 0.371 0.956 4.762 0.325 0.326 21 014132 1691 1990 300 0.997 0.395 1.388 7.782 0.341 0.238 22 014141 1432 1989 558 0.992 0.368 0.716 4.682 0.316 0.398 23 014142 1434 1981 548 0.997 0.367 0.708 4.276 0.327 0.393 24 014151 1482 1991 510 0.991 0.627 2.891 20.316 0.452 0.457 25 014152 1515 1966 452 0.991 0.608 3.185 20.679 0.408 0.534 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 405 0.994 0.467 1.621 9.305 0.358 0.446 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.007 0.088 0.849 5.567 0.044 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 393 0.996 0.443 1.465 7.450 0.341 0.421 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.007 0.154 1.461 6.992 0.054 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 237 0.979 0.355 0.334 3.407 0.300 0.238 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 0.991 0.386 0.956 4.762 0.327 0.390 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 463 0.998 0.540 2.417 11.754 0.382 0.506 MAXIMUM VALUE 558 1.010 0.627 3.185 20.679 0.452 0.705 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.296 0.108 0.006 0.246 2.857 0.029 0.612 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.029 SERIES 014091 AND 014151 392 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.612 SERIES 014051 AND 014052 237 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. CORR 6. 10. 28. 45. 55. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.526 0.304 0.253 0.412 0.413 0.312 0.308 0.370 0.419 0.368 SDEV 0.215 0.191 0.271 0.164 0.164 0.203 0.217 0.203 0.161 0.208 SERR 0.088 0.060 0.051 0.024 0.022 0.025 0.018 0.016 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.857 0.776 0.766 0.881 0.904 0.886 0.893 0.921 0.941 0.932 NSS 5.4 7.9 9.7 10.5 13.5 17.1 18.8 19.9 21.9 23.5 YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 276. 276. 300. 300. 276. 276. 276. 276. 210. 153. RBAR 0.317 0.366 0.442 0.426 0.347 0.347 0.313 0.287 0.329 0.329 SDEV 0.206 0.174 0.189 0.178 0.194 0.159 0.199 0.195 0.164 0.177 SERR 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.918 0.935 0.952 0.949 0.930 0.929 0.916 0.906 0.920 0.911 NSS 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 24.0 23.5 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 0.943 0.251 0.248 3.236 0.240 0.404 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.540 0.258 0.060 259 301 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.31 1.00 1.13 2.45 20.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.404 0.201 0.131 0.123 0.115 0.060 0.125 0.100 0.054 0.077 PACF 0.404 0.046 0.042 0.060 0.044 -0.019 0.107 0.009 -0.018 0.052 95% C.L. 0.085 0.097 0.100 0.101 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.106 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.165 0.404 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.365 0.141 0.042 0.034 0.036 -0.014 0.075 0.057 0.004 0.012 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.365 2 0.362 0.009 3 0.362 0.014 -0.014 4 0.362 0.013 -0.023 0.026 5 0.362 0.014 -0.024 0.019 0.020 6 0.363 0.015 -0.025 0.019 0.035 -0.043 7 0.367 0.011 -0.027 0.022 0.034 -0.080 0.105 8 0.367 0.011 -0.027 0.022 0.034 -0.081 0.104 0.002 9 0.367 0.015 -0.030 0.023 0.035 -0.082 0.104 0.016 -0.037 10 0.368 0.015 -0.032 0.025 0.034 -0.082 0.105 0.016 -0.046 0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 5382.37 5304.30 5306.25 5308.15 5309.77 5311.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 5312.53 5308.37 5310.37 5311.59 5313.26 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.365 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.32 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 115.37 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.365 0.133 0.049 0.018 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 014011 1 0.159 0.391 2 014012 1 0.119 0.320 3 014031 1 0.150 0.376 4 014032 1 0.084 0.267 5 014041 1 0.374 0.594 6 014042 1 0.271 0.508 7 014051 1 0.508 0.710 8 014052 1 0.285 0.533 9 014061 1 0.169 0.393 10 014062 1 0.169 0.403 11 014071 1 0.436 0.646 12 014072 1 0.218 0.439 13 014081 1 0.130 0.347 14 014091 1 0.270 0.504 15 014092 1 0.437 0.660 16 014101 1 0.229 0.468 17 014102 1 0.188 0.420 18 014111 1 0.228 0.436 19 014112 1 0.216 0.446 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 014131 1 0.109 0.326 21 014132 1 0.058 0.238 22 014141 1 0.196 0.398 23 014142 1 0.158 0.393 24 014151 1 0.254 0.457 25 014152 1 0.287 0.535 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.228 0.448 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.118 MEDIAN 1 0.216 0.436 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.113 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.058 0.238 LOWER HINGE 1 0.158 0.391 UPPER HINGE 1 0.271 0.508 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.508 0.710 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 1.000 0.408 1.227 6.398 0.439 -0.033 2 014012 1459 1991 533 1.000 0.362 0.570 3.791 0.408 -0.044 3 014031 1516 1990 475 1.000 0.376 0.171 3.482 0.456 -0.039 4 014032 1588 1991 404 1.000 0.420 0.660 4.372 0.493 -0.030 5 014041 1501 1961 461 1.002 0.441 1.823 13.917 0.483 -0.092 6 014042 1565 1949 385 1.000 0.442 1.256 7.421 0.477 -0.068 7 014051 1754 1990 237 1.001 0.434 1.831 12.376 0.476 -0.059 8 014052 1711 1990 280 1.000 0.389 1.216 6.962 0.426 -0.013 9 014061 1605 1957 353 1.000 0.396 1.969 14.183 0.413 -0.052 10 014062 1605 1991 387 1.002 0.440 2.264 14.688 0.435 0.002 11 014071 1593 1991 399 1.000 0.417 1.940 12.193 0.429 -0.113 12 014072 1629 1991 363 1.000 0.319 0.576 3.840 0.364 -0.080 13 014081 1592 1990 399 1.000 0.453 1.139 5.597 0.503 -0.035 14 014091 1600 1991 392 1.000 0.350 1.197 7.802 0.393 -0.074 15 014092 1599 1991 393 1.002 0.399 0.971 5.514 0.443 -0.037 16 014101 1492 1863 372 1.002 0.448 1.515 8.271 0.458 -0.047 17 014102 1529 1991 463 1.001 0.348 0.526 5.450 0.400 -0.048 18 014111 1663 1991 329 1.000 0.345 1.493 8.933 0.390 -0.094 19 014112 1670 1991 322 1.000 0.517 1.812 8.527 0.501 -0.034 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 1.000 0.351 0.812 4.631 0.376 -0.019 21 014132 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.383 1.357 7.394 0.382 -0.010 22 014141 1432 1989 558 1.000 0.337 0.462 5.095 0.379 -0.081 23 014142 1434 1981 548 1.000 0.337 0.717 4.526 0.377 -0.026 24 014151 1482 1991 510 1.001 0.555 3.064 24.224 0.536 -0.089 25 014152 1515 1966 452 1.002 0.509 2.173 14.400 0.524 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 405 1.001 0.407 1.310 8.559 0.438 -0.049 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.001 0.061 0.687 4.897 0.050 0.031 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 393 1.000 0.399 1.227 7.394 0.435 -0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.001 0.090 1.106 7.098 0.084 0.043 MINIMUM VALUE 237 1.000 0.319 0.171 3.482 0.364 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 1.000 0.351 0.717 5.095 0.393 -0.074 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 463 1.001 0.441 1.823 12.193 0.477 -0.030 MAXIMUM VALUE 558 1.002 0.555 3.064 24.224 0.536 0.002 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.323 0.082 0.005 0.455 2.918 0.133 0.587 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.133 SERIES 014091 AND 014151 392 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.587 SERIES 014031 AND 014032 403 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. CORR 6. 10. 28. 45. 55. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.522 0.347 0.298 0.416 0.374 0.285 0.316 0.367 0.431 0.411 SDEV 0.187 0.181 0.211 0.146 0.139 0.140 0.150 0.162 0.146 0.168 SERR 0.076 0.057 0.040 0.022 0.019 0.017 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.855 0.809 0.805 0.883 0.889 0.872 0.897 0.920 0.943 0.942 NSS 5.4 7.9 9.7 10.5 13.5 17.1 18.8 19.9 21.9 23.5 YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 276. 276. 300. 300. 276. 276. 276. 276. 210. 153. RBAR 0.351 0.363 0.415 0.440 0.400 0.347 0.305 0.279 0.308 0.316 SDEV 0.168 0.152 0.155 0.145 0.156 0.147 0.172 0.182 0.163 0.157 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.929 0.934 0.947 0.952 0.943 0.928 0.913 0.903 0.913 0.907 NSS 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 24.0 23.5 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 0.967 0.225 0.108 3.115 0.269 -0.045 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.403 0.181 0.091 249 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.02 1.00 1.18 2.20 13.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.045 -0.002 0.011 0.048 0.065 -0.036 0.103 0.029 -0.013 0.021 PACF -0.045 -0.004 0.011 0.049 0.070 -0.030 0.100 0.035 -0.015 0.017 95% C.L. 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.086 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.003 0.013 0.051 0.066 -0.029 0.103 0.033 -0.010 0.025 PACF 0.000 -0.003 0.013 0.051 0.066 -0.028 0.102 0.030 -0.016 0.022 95% C.L. 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.086 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 0.966 0.242 0.267 3.166 0.229 0.369 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.368 0.145 0.089 0.099 0.098 0.047 0.117 0.075 0.035 0.060 PACF 0.368 0.011 0.037 0.062 0.043 -0.013 0.108 -0.011 -0.010 0.047 95% C.L. 0.085 0.095 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.136 0.369 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES