RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS126X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS126X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 014 1 Bilibina,Mali Anuj river DENSITY_MAXIMUM LADA - 014 2 Russia Larch 450 6728-16740 1432 1991 - 014 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 014011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1696 1696 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 014012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1640 1641 / 1695 1695 / 1841 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 014031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1585 1596 / 1724 1725 / 1929 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 014032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 85 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1868 / 1908 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 014041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1846 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 014052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 014102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1834 1834 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 014131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 28 IN 1 GAPS / 1886 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 014141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 2 GAPS / 1478 1484 / 1509 1514 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 014142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 183 IN 1 GAPS / 1682 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 014152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 69 IN 2 GAPS / 1648 1677 / 1908 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 0.756 0.128 -0.425 2.674 0.145 0.441 2 014012 1459 1991 533 0.774 0.134 -0.449 2.551 0.160 0.352 3 014031 1516 1990 475 0.758 0.133 -0.342 2.334 0.171 0.303 4 014032 1588 1991 404 0.769 0.137 -0.349 2.359 0.153 0.465 5 014041 1501 1961 461 0.809 0.145 -0.487 2.386 0.139 0.536 6 014042 1565 1949 385 0.801 0.123 -0.582 2.674 0.131 0.438 7 014051 1754 1990 237 0.870 0.095 -1.036 4.260 0.085 0.492 8 014052 1711 1990 280 0.889 0.095 -1.180 5.437 0.099 0.297 9 014061 1605 1957 353 0.810 0.107 -0.716 3.365 0.130 0.232 10 014062 1605 1991 387 0.809 0.099 -0.905 4.232 0.121 0.264 11 014071 1593 1991 399 0.790 0.110 -0.733 3.496 0.114 0.514 12 014072 1629 1991 363 0.764 0.142 -0.312 2.371 0.150 0.550 13 014081 1592 1990 399 0.750 0.129 -0.307 2.315 0.152 0.390 14 014091 1600 1991 392 0.746 0.110 -0.741 3.108 0.136 0.363 15 014092 1599 1991 393 0.753 0.112 -0.548 2.899 0.126 0.468 16 014101 1492 1863 372 0.810 0.119 -0.553 2.703 0.123 0.434 17 014102 1529 1991 463 0.809 0.125 -0.463 2.564 0.139 0.405 18 014111 1663 1991 329 0.776 0.121 -0.502 2.698 0.133 0.451 19 014112 1670 1991 322 0.771 0.121 -0.329 2.691 0.133 0.483 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 0.766 0.099 -0.502 2.774 0.110 0.408 21 014132 1691 1990 300 0.830 0.096 -0.961 3.825 0.114 0.252 22 014141 1432 1989 558 0.766 0.124 -0.116 2.453 0.140 0.460 23 014142 1434 1981 548 0.770 0.142 -0.094 2.279 0.130 0.651 24 014151 1482 1991 510 0.817 0.124 -0.736 3.733 0.136 0.394 25 014152 1515 1966 452 0.777 0.117 -0.441 2.818 0.150 0.271 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1432 TO 1991 560 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 389 0.790 0.120 -0.552 3.000 0.133 0.413 STANDARD DEVIATION 85 0.036 0.015 0.271 0.778 0.019 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 385 0.776 0.121 -0.502 2.698 0.133 0.434 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.044 0.019 0.384 0.912 0.021 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 237 0.746 0.095 -1.180 2.279 0.085 0.232 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 329 0.766 0.110 -0.733 2.453 0.123 0.352 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 460 0.809 0.129 -0.349 3.365 0.145 0.468 MAXIMUM VALUE 545 0.889 0.145 -0.094 5.437 0.171 0.651 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.496 0.108 0.006 -0.583 4.032 0.110 0.781 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.110 SERIES 014051 AND 014092 237 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.781 SERIES 014011 AND 014012 533 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. CORR 6. 10. 28. 45. 55. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.580 0.645 0.447 0.631 0.572 0.488 0.510 0.593 0.571 0.599 SDEV 0.178 0.136 0.246 0.118 0.138 0.147 0.161 0.144 0.149 0.131 SERR 0.073 0.043 0.046 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.882 0.935 0.887 0.947 0.947 0.942 0.951 0.967 0.967 0.972 NSS 5.4 7.9 9.7 10.5 13.5 17.1 18.8 19.9 21.9 23.5 YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 276. 276. 300. 300. 276. 276. 276. 276. 210. 153. RBAR 0.628 0.628 0.640 0.602 0.577 0.592 0.570 0.520 0.568 0.599 SDEV 0.123 0.152 0.138 0.134 0.148 0.102 0.141 0.161 0.125 0.139 SERR 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.006 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.976 0.977 0.978 0.974 0.971 0.973 0.969 0.963 0.969 0.969 NSS 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 24.0 23.5 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 0.798 0.093 -0.509 3.046 0.111 0.329 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.391 -0.136 0.201 117 443 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.45 1.00 1.04 1.49 14.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 393. 110. 237. 353. 463. 558. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.329 0.205 0.194 0.249 0.237 0.148 0.263 0.134 0.140 0.135 PACF 0.329 0.109 0.112 0.164 0.108 0.001 0.179 -0.054 0.027 0.023 95% C.L. 0.085 0.093 0.096 0.099 0.104 0.107 0.109 0.113 0.114 0.116 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.165 0.243 0.056 0.060 0.137 0.112 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 014011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040458 0.86555761 2 014012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034587 0.86518800 3 014031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015846 0.79401410 4 014032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038058 0.83656907 5 014041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049186 0.92200589 6 014042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020285 0.83995539 7 014051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007114 0.86111206 8 014052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000668 0.88768786 9 014061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006056 0.82117260 10 014062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007722 0.79445100 11 014071 1 0.14807089 0.00097364 0.00000000 0.66765672 12 014072 1 0.29616275 0.00240637 0.00000000 0.56678826 13 014081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007680 0.73431468 14 014091 1 0.15091464 0.01040963 0.00000000 0.70972306 15 014092 1 0.20175995 0.00873493 0.00000000 0.69623363 16 014101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007589 0.79576558 17 014102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022633 0.86094993 18 014111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042855 0.84654737 19 014112 1 0.34664804 0.00317284 0.00000000 0.55383849 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 014131 1 0.19041257 0.01564099 0.00000000 0.71684510 21 014132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028650 0.87351775 22 014141 1 0.23735753 0.00610483 0.00000000 0.70371950 23 014142 1 0.32539496 0.00410157 0.00000000 0.59581149 24 014151 1 0.19101632 0.01538962 0.00000000 0.79292083 25 014152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019464 0.81725109 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 1.000 0.150 -0.432 3.210 0.144 0.252 2 014012 1459 1991 533 1.000 0.161 -0.534 2.945 0.160 0.219 3 014031 1516 1990 475 1.000 0.173 -0.370 2.285 0.170 0.286 4 014032 1588 1991 404 1.000 0.161 -0.410 2.571 0.148 0.375 5 014041 1501 1961 461 1.000 0.162 -0.497 2.673 0.139 0.414 6 014042 1565 1949 385 1.000 0.150 -0.689 2.767 0.130 0.414 7 014051 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.109 -0.968 4.128 0.085 0.489 8 014052 1711 1990 280 1.000 0.107 -1.176 5.450 0.099 0.296 9 014061 1605 1957 353 1.000 0.132 -0.698 3.323 0.130 0.230 10 014062 1605 1991 387 1.000 0.122 -0.878 4.223 0.120 0.260 11 014071 1593 1991 399 1.000 0.138 -0.796 3.566 0.113 0.500 12 014072 1629 1991 363 1.000 0.174 -0.496 2.607 0.150 0.480 13 014081 1592 1990 399 1.000 0.172 -0.331 2.391 0.151 0.383 14 014091 1600 1991 392 1.000 0.142 -0.570 3.170 0.135 0.285 15 014092 1599 1991 393 1.000 0.135 -0.536 3.062 0.126 0.338 16 014101 1492 1863 372 1.000 0.147 -0.570 2.708 0.123 0.432 17 014102 1529 1991 463 1.000 0.151 -0.523 2.508 0.139 0.362 18 014111 1663 1991 329 1.000 0.147 -0.658 2.942 0.133 0.363 19 014112 1670 1991 322 1.000 0.134 -0.596 3.045 0.133 0.272 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 1.000 0.116 -0.305 3.626 0.109 0.261 21 014132 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.113 -0.875 3.933 0.113 0.208 22 014141 1432 1989 558 1.000 0.146 -0.271 2.570 0.138 0.334 23 014142 1434 1981 548 1.000 0.153 -0.169 3.079 0.129 0.468 24 014151 1482 1991 510 1.000 0.145 -0.896 3.845 0.136 0.320 25 014152 1515 1966 452 1.000 0.144 -0.462 2.897 0.146 0.242 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 405 1.000 0.143 -0.588 3.181 0.132 0.339 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.000 0.019 0.241 0.717 0.019 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 393 1.000 0.146 -0.536 3.045 0.133 0.334 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.000 0.019 0.266 0.894 0.021 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 237 1.000 0.107 -1.176 2.285 0.085 0.208 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 1.000 0.134 -0.698 2.673 0.123 0.261 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 463 1.000 0.153 -0.432 3.566 0.144 0.414 MAXIMUM VALUE 558 1.000 0.174 -0.169 5.450 0.170 0.500 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 014011 -67 362 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 014012 -67 357 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 014031 -67 318 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 014032 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 014041 -67 308 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 014042 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 014051 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 014052 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 014061 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 014062 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 014071 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 014072 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 014081 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 014091 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 014092 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 014101 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 014102 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 014111 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 014112 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 014131 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 014132 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 014141 -67 373 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 014142 -67 367 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 014151 -67 341 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 014152 -67 302 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 1.000 0.149 -0.450 3.225 0.144 0.243 2 014012 1459 1991 533 1.000 0.160 -0.543 2.941 0.160 0.211 3 014031 1516 1990 475 1.000 0.169 -0.410 2.329 0.170 0.256 4 014032 1588 1991 404 0.999 0.154 -0.477 2.705 0.148 0.305 5 014041 1501 1961 461 1.000 0.157 -0.572 2.944 0.139 0.384 6 014042 1565 1949 385 1.000 0.141 -0.607 3.159 0.130 0.324 7 014051 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.098 -1.012 5.433 0.085 0.341 8 014052 1711 1990 280 1.000 0.099 -1.303 5.905 0.099 0.185 9 014061 1605 1957 353 1.000 0.130 -0.747 3.398 0.130 0.203 10 014062 1605 1991 387 1.000 0.120 -0.877 4.206 0.120 0.238 11 014071 1593 1991 399 0.999 0.129 -0.820 3.680 0.113 0.431 12 014072 1629 1991 363 0.999 0.168 -0.504 2.638 0.150 0.438 13 014081 1592 1990 399 0.999 0.166 -0.345 2.419 0.151 0.349 14 014091 1600 1991 392 1.000 0.137 -0.574 3.209 0.135 0.233 15 014092 1599 1991 393 1.000 0.132 -0.546 3.096 0.126 0.306 16 014101 1492 1863 372 0.999 0.139 -0.620 3.044 0.123 0.371 17 014102 1529 1991 463 0.999 0.144 -0.598 2.681 0.139 0.304 18 014111 1663 1991 329 0.999 0.133 -0.682 3.268 0.133 0.227 19 014112 1670 1991 322 1.000 0.128 -0.641 3.201 0.133 0.202 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 1.000 0.113 -0.354 3.590 0.109 0.227 21 014132 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.109 -0.912 4.131 0.113 0.146 22 014141 1432 1989 558 1.000 0.144 -0.266 2.588 0.138 0.321 23 014142 1434 1981 548 0.999 0.142 -0.396 3.165 0.129 0.380 24 014151 1482 1991 510 1.000 0.141 -0.886 4.008 0.136 0.273 25 014152 1515 1966 452 1.000 0.141 -0.488 2.927 0.146 0.211 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 405 1.000 0.138 -0.625 3.356 0.132 0.284 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.000 0.020 0.238 0.853 0.019 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 393 1.000 0.141 -0.574 3.165 0.133 0.273 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.000 0.020 0.270 0.663 0.021 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 237 0.999 0.098 -1.303 2.329 0.085 0.146 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 0.999 0.129 -0.747 2.927 0.123 0.227 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 463 1.000 0.149 -0.477 3.590 0.144 0.341 MAXIMUM VALUE 558 1.000 0.169 -0.266 5.905 0.170 0.438 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.537 0.070 0.004 -0.270 3.722 0.301 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.301 SERIES 014072 AND 014151 363 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 014091 AND 014092 392 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. CORR 6. 10. 28. 45. 55. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.608 0.646 0.482 0.627 0.571 0.496 0.528 0.598 0.582 0.598 SDEV 0.167 0.142 0.197 0.116 0.133 0.141 0.150 0.139 0.135 0.132 SERR 0.068 0.045 0.037 0.017 0.018 0.017 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.894 0.935 0.900 0.947 0.947 0.944 0.955 0.967 0.968 0.972 NSS 5.4 7.9 9.7 10.5 13.5 17.1 18.8 19.9 21.9 23.5 YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 276. 276. 300. 300. 276. 276. 276. 276. 210. 153. RBAR 0.637 0.639 0.654 0.605 0.580 0.598 0.585 0.530 0.576 0.595 SDEV 0.118 0.139 0.121 0.128 0.144 0.101 0.125 0.152 0.122 0.143 SERR 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.006 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.012 EPS 0.977 0.978 0.979 0.975 0.972 0.973 0.971 0.964 0.970 0.969 NSS 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 24.0 23.5 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 0.999 0.108 -0.674 3.134 0.111 0.196 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.337 -0.108 0.199 154 406 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.52 1.00 1.07 1.59 20.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.196 0.046 0.043 0.111 0.096 -0.013 0.125 -0.051 -0.037 -0.024 PACF 0.196 0.008 0.034 0.100 0.057 -0.049 0.136 -0.120 -0.024 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.085 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.090 0.090 0.091 0.091 0.091 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.038 0.196 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.150 -0.013 -0.027 0.058 0.039 -0.065 0.106 -0.072 -0.090 -0.087 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.150 2 0.156 -0.036 3 0.155 -0.033 -0.020 4 0.156 -0.031 -0.030 0.066 5 0.155 -0.030 -0.030 0.063 0.019 6 0.156 -0.025 -0.032 0.061 0.030 -0.074 7 0.167 -0.030 -0.040 0.065 0.034 -0.096 0.137 8 0.183 -0.041 -0.036 0.073 0.029 -0.099 0.157 -0.121 9 0.175 -0.031 -0.043 0.075 0.034 -0.102 0.155 -0.109 -0.066 10 0.172 -0.036 -0.035 0.070 0.036 -0.098 0.153 -0.110 -0.057 -0.050 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4359.25 4348.48 4349.75 4351.53 4351.06 4352.86 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4351.77 4343.11 4336.89 4336.44 4337.04 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.150 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.26 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.31 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.150 0.023 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 014011 1 0.060 0.244 2 014012 1 0.055 0.211 3 014031 1 0.066 0.256 4 014032 1 0.096 0.305 5 014041 1 0.157 0.385 6 014042 1 0.105 0.324 7 014051 1 0.119 0.344 8 014052 1 0.036 0.189 9 014061 1 0.044 0.204 10 014062 1 0.063 0.238 11 014071 1 0.205 0.432 12 014072 1 0.207 0.439 13 014081 1 0.144 0.352 14 014091 1 0.076 0.233 15 014092 1 0.104 0.306 16 014101 1 0.146 0.371 17 014102 1 0.096 0.304 18 014111 1 0.053 0.228 19 014112 1 0.041 0.202 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 014131 1 0.059 0.227 21 014132 1 0.022 0.147 22 014141 1 0.105 0.321 23 014142 1 0.151 0.381 24 014151 1 0.096 0.273 25 014152 1 0.045 0.211 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.094 0.285 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.051 0.079 MEDIAN 1 0.096 0.273 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.064 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.022 0.147 LOWER HINGE 1 0.055 0.227 UPPER HINGE 1 0.119 0.344 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.207 0.439 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 014011 1451 1991 541 1.000 0.145 -0.420 3.280 0.160 -0.006 2 014012 1459 1991 533 1.000 0.156 -0.522 3.074 0.179 -0.022 3 014031 1516 1990 475 1.000 0.164 -0.378 2.419 0.190 -0.004 4 014032 1588 1991 404 1.000 0.146 -0.379 2.667 0.169 -0.017 5 014041 1501 1961 461 1.000 0.145 -0.535 3.199 0.166 -0.037 6 014042 1565 1949 385 1.000 0.133 -0.616 3.467 0.148 -0.002 7 014051 1754 1990 237 1.000 0.092 -1.035 6.038 0.100 -0.006 8 014052 1711 1990 280 1.000 0.098 -1.299 6.052 0.107 -0.003 9 014061 1605 1957 353 1.000 0.127 -0.720 3.401 0.143 -0.009 10 014062 1605 1991 387 1.000 0.117 -0.855 4.098 0.135 -0.019 11 014071 1593 1991 399 1.000 0.117 -0.822 4.086 0.137 -0.065 12 014072 1629 1991 363 1.000 0.151 -0.344 2.481 0.181 -0.058 13 014081 1592 1990 399 1.000 0.155 -0.255 2.494 0.179 -0.051 14 014091 1600 1991 392 1.000 0.133 -0.595 3.308 0.152 -0.036 15 014092 1599 1991 393 1.000 0.126 -0.589 3.267 0.144 -0.032 16 014101 1492 1863 372 1.000 0.129 -0.554 3.005 0.146 -0.037 17 014102 1529 1991 463 1.000 0.137 -0.627 2.807 0.159 -0.018 18 014111 1663 1991 329 1.000 0.129 -0.601 3.159 0.148 -0.008 19 014112 1670 1991 322 1.000 0.125 -0.619 3.113 0.145 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 014131 1693 1971 279 1.000 0.110 -0.533 3.765 0.124 -0.020 21 014132 1691 1990 300 1.000 0.108 -0.981 4.272 0.122 -0.003 22 014141 1432 1989 558 1.000 0.137 -0.248 2.590 0.160 -0.013 23 014142 1434 1981 548 1.000 0.131 -0.333 3.040 0.154 -0.032 24 014151 1482 1991 510 1.000 0.135 -0.815 3.761 0.154 -0.042 25 014152 1515 1966 452 1.000 0.138 -0.508 2.912 0.161 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 405 1.000 0.131 -0.607 3.430 0.150 -0.022 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.000 0.018 0.253 0.935 0.022 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 393 1.000 0.133 -0.589 3.199 0.152 -0.018 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.000 0.019 0.301 0.849 0.018 0.030 MINIMUM VALUE 237 1.000 0.092 -1.299 2.419 0.100 -0.065 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 1.000 0.125 -0.720 2.912 0.143 -0.036 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 463 1.000 0.145 -0.420 3.761 0.161 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 558 1.000 0.164 -0.248 6.052 0.190 0.002 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.587 0.061 0.004 -0.153 3.458 0.385 0.770 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.385 SERIES 014011 AND 014051 237 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.770 SERIES 014091 AND 014092 392 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.08 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. CORR 6. 10. 28. 45. 55. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.594 0.666 0.561 0.670 0.640 0.528 0.564 0.631 0.615 0.652 SDEV 0.174 0.123 0.143 0.087 0.087 0.130 0.129 0.109 0.125 0.114 SERR 0.071 0.039 0.027 0.013 0.012 0.016 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.888 0.941 0.925 0.955 0.960 0.950 0.960 0.971 0.972 0.978 NSS 5.4 7.9 9.7 10.5 13.5 17.1 18.8 19.9 21.9 23.5 YEAR 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 276. 276. 300. 300. 276. 276. 276. 276. 210. 153. RBAR 0.651 0.672 0.697 0.653 0.623 0.622 0.630 0.563 0.564 0.605 SDEV 0.114 0.107 0.093 0.101 0.119 0.095 0.099 0.130 0.124 0.137 SERR 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.978 0.981 0.983 0.979 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.969 0.968 0.970 NSS 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 24.0 23.5 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 1.000 0.105 -0.628 3.081 0.126 -0.086 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.290 -0.086 0.166 163 397 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.51 1.00 1.05 1.56 15.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.086 -0.026 -0.003 0.074 0.074 -0.081 0.155 -0.080 -0.022 -0.021 PACF -0.086 -0.033 -0.008 0.073 0.088 -0.063 0.150 -0.067 -0.038 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.089 0.089 0.089 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.086 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.034 0.002 0.081 0.075 -0.062 0.143 -0.069 -0.031 -0.022 PACF -0.003 -0.034 0.001 0.080 0.076 -0.057 0.149 -0.082 -0.033 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.088 0.088 0.088 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1432 1991 560 1.000 0.105 -0.673 3.140 0.112 0.143 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.143 -0.009 0.014 0.092 0.081 -0.029 0.125 -0.054 -0.041 -0.025 PACF 0.143 -0.030 0.020 0.088 0.057 -0.047 0.142 -0.108 -0.024 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.087 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 0.143 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.47 MINUTES