RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS130W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS130W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 020 1 Jablonsky P. east (Altai WIDTH_RING LASI - 020 2 Russia Siberian larch 1450 5052-8514 1636 1994 - 020 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 020011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 64 IN 4 GAPS / 1711 1715 / 1865 1877 / 1891 1893 / 1912 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 020012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1835 1836 / 1919 1920 / 1942 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 020021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1923 1926 / 1942 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 020022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 41 IN 4 GAPS / 1782 1783 / 1911 1927 / 1942 1954 / 1965 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 020031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1896 1896 / 1916 1919 / 1934 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 020032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 020042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1819 1819 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 020051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1711 1711 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 020062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 020071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 6 GAPS / 1667 1667 / 1733 1734 / 1784 1786 / 1862 1865 / / 1882 1883 / 1915 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 020072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 45 IN 6 GAPS / 1669 1674 / 1730 1733 / 1790 1792 / 1862 1864 / / 1915 1919 / 1941 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 020092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1794 1794 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 020101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1711 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 020102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 020112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1775 1775 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 020121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1863 1864 / 1890 1891 / 1917 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 020151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1959 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 020152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1960 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 020011 1659 1994 336 0.730 0.558 1.693 5.926 0.396 0.842 2 020012 1636 1994 359 0.506 0.359 1.963 9.525 0.410 0.769 3 020021 1782 1964 183 1.156 0.950 1.393 4.349 0.286 0.892 4 020022 1776 1979 204 1.267 0.955 1.407 4.344 0.330 0.842 5 020031 1796 1990 195 1.425 1.254 1.294 3.936 0.364 0.901 6 020032 1867 1994 128 1.161 0.971 1.052 3.187 0.380 0.884 7 020041 1785 1994 210 1.052 0.751 1.044 3.132 0.274 0.898 8 020042 1803 1994 192 1.214 0.928 1.601 4.925 0.221 0.926 9 020051 1652 1994 343 0.801 0.480 2.525 11.440 0.257 0.848 10 020052 1677 1994 318 0.594 0.434 2.724 12.537 0.297 0.802 11 020061 1800 1994 195 1.454 0.710 0.601 2.674 0.300 0.716 12 020062 1823 1994 172 1.398 0.659 0.812 3.907 0.288 0.704 13 020071 1655 1976 322 0.571 0.426 1.778 6.919 0.337 0.820 14 020072 1656 1994 339 0.621 0.444 1.684 6.754 0.345 0.797 15 020081 1779 1994 216 1.215 0.673 1.071 4.159 0.322 0.774 16 020082 1802 1993 192 1.024 0.525 1.437 7.047 0.315 0.708 17 020091 1706 1994 289 0.431 0.216 1.300 5.041 0.308 0.753 18 020092 1722 1994 273 0.366 0.156 0.714 3.679 0.323 0.660 19 020101 1684 1994 311 0.915 0.480 1.073 4.104 0.299 0.786 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 020102 1669 1994 326 0.890 0.591 2.062 8.528 0.322 0.837 21 020111 1636 1994 359 0.872 0.806 2.157 8.371 0.320 0.875 22 020112 1637 1994 358 0.858 0.716 2.527 11.107 0.294 0.839 23 020121 1771 1941 171 1.280 0.858 0.923 3.325 0.261 0.878 24 020122 1762 1994 233 1.156 1.045 1.481 4.836 0.308 0.925 25 020131 1808 1994 187 1.447 0.837 1.069 3.734 0.279 0.815 26 020132 1816 1994 179 1.115 0.598 1.138 4.178 0.309 0.756 27 020141 1776 1994 219 0.851 0.541 2.162 8.844 0.268 0.811 28 020142 1766 1994 229 1.136 0.810 1.738 5.630 0.260 0.856 29 020151 1756 1994 239 1.045 0.719 1.307 4.221 0.297 0.888 30 020152 1760 1994 235 1.114 0.668 1.452 5.120 0.294 0.831 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1636 TO 1994 359 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 243 0.989 0.671 1.506 5.849 0.309 0.821 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.309 0.248 0.547 2.688 0.041 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 231 1.048 0.670 1.422 4.880 0.304 0.834 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.413 0.357 0.707 3.111 0.037 0.103 MINIMUM VALUE 125 0.366 0.156 0.601 2.674 0.221 0.660 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 187 0.801 0.480 1.071 3.936 0.286 0.774 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 306 1.214 0.837 1.778 7.047 0.323 0.878 MAXIMUM VALUE 359 1.454 1.254 2.724 12.537 0.410 0.926 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.550 0.231 0.011 -0.672 3.104 -0.095 0.946 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.095 SERIES 020011 AND 020042 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.946 SERIES 020041 AND 020042 192 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1661. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. CORR 1. 21. 45. 55. 66. 105. 231. 351. 406. 406. RBAR 0.726 0.457 0.332 0.366 0.385 0.590 0.594 0.585 0.548 0.617 SDEV 0.000 0.186 0.234 0.246 0.208 0.173 0.168 0.144 0.214 0.123 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.035 0.033 0.026 0.017 0.011 0.008 0.011 0.006 EPS 0.941 0.889 0.846 0.876 0.908 0.969 0.975 0.976 0.973 0.980 NSS 6.0 9.5 11.0 12.2 15.7 21.7 26.6 28.8 29.5 30.0 YEAR 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 435. 406. 325. RBAR 0.653 0.588 0.520 SDEV 0.140 0.154 0.176 SERR 0.007 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.983 0.977 0.968 NSS 30.0 29.5 28.1 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1636 1994 359 0.988 0.581 2.004 8.707 0.238 0.865 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.731 0.426 0.114 168 191 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 1.49 1.00 1.09 2.58 1779.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.53 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 231. 130. 128. 192. 322. 359. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.862 0.735 0.647 0.593 0.554 0.543 0.548 0.536 0.509 0.493 PACF 0.862 -0.036 0.086 0.083 0.056 0.120 0.106 -0.001 -0.002 0.063 95% C.L. 0.106 0.166 0.199 0.222 0.239 0.253 0.265 0.278 0.289 0.299 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.782 0.884 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 020011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086726 0.60075498 2 020012 1 0.85293877 0.00603248 0.00000000 0.15037277 3 020021 1 3.35835743 0.02332339 0.00000000 0.35766888 4 020022 1 3.53513479 0.02590393 0.00000000 0.50973165 5 020031 1 4.10777569 0.02575403 0.00000000 0.55335695 6 020032 1 3.03755903 0.04578462 0.00000000 0.67045718 7 020041 1 2.40683150 0.01422612 0.00000000 0.29221246 8 020042 1 3.19745708 0.02472290 0.00000000 0.56262165 9 020051 1 2.23715687 0.04253966 0.00000000 0.65103424 10 020052 1 1.61263692 0.03093835 0.00000000 0.43303141 11 020061 1 2.20315957 0.00761332 0.00000000 0.31090796 12 020062 1 1.39147186 0.01066616 0.00000000 0.75954092 13 020071 1 1.45106697 0.01477022 0.00000000 0.27063653 14 020072 1 1.38350916 0.01187359 0.00000000 0.28041586 15 020081 1 2.60817766 0.11156583 0.00000000 1.11297369 16 020082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00446844 1.45474589 17 020091 1 0.59801084 0.01649678 0.00000000 0.30738285 18 020092 1 0.34411266 0.01341488 0.00000000 0.27431735 19 020101 1 1.33477843 0.01305370 0.00000000 0.59662145 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 020102 1 2.35639119 0.03468267 0.00000000 0.68493038 21 020111 1 2.94482899 0.01986862 0.00000000 0.46327814 22 020112 1 2.99823070 0.02722288 0.00000000 0.55430770 23 020121 1 2.88034153 0.01508904 0.00000000 0.22530922 24 020122 1 3.79346132 0.01947961 0.00000000 0.33725592 25 020131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01120347 2.49964976 26 020132 1 1.88293660 0.00794252 0.00000000 0.11402469 27 020141 1 2.09773278 0.03312530 0.00000000 0.56722265 28 020142 1 3.08325434 0.02526156 0.00000000 0.61147153 29 020151 1 2.36235976 0.02233490 0.00000000 0.60276079 30 020152 1 2.19142509 0.03200233 0.00000000 0.82574695 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 020011 1659 1994 336 1.000 0.740 2.000 8.233 0.416 0.821 2 020012 1636 1994 359 1.001 0.536 0.565 3.064 0.432 0.644 3 020021 1782 1964 183 1.001 0.472 0.380 2.609 0.291 0.734 4 020022 1776 1979 204 1.002 0.388 0.476 3.922 0.303 0.594 5 020031 1796 1990 195 0.999 0.663 1.253 5.846 0.445 0.762 6 020032 1867 1994 128 1.003 0.643 0.556 2.524 0.368 0.783 7 020041 1785 1994 210 1.002 0.452 0.959 4.666 0.273 0.729 8 020042 1803 1994 192 0.995 0.405 0.940 4.975 0.219 0.803 9 020051 1652 1994 343 1.000 0.353 0.303 3.252 0.256 0.647 10 020052 1677 1994 318 1.000 0.445 1.196 6.342 0.297 0.704 11 020061 1800 1994 195 1.000 0.369 0.248 2.967 0.299 0.531 12 020062 1823 1994 172 1.000 0.407 0.467 3.678 0.287 0.640 13 020071 1655 1976 322 1.000 0.414 0.512 3.154 0.331 0.552 14 020072 1656 1994 339 0.998 0.461 1.108 6.059 0.339 0.596 15 020081 1779 1994 216 1.000 0.501 0.931 4.064 0.320 0.730 16 020082 1802 1993 192 1.000 0.435 0.973 5.641 0.314 0.640 17 020091 1706 1994 289 1.000 0.335 -0.133 2.984 0.307 0.500 18 020092 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.341 -0.176 3.041 0.322 0.466 19 020101 1684 1994 311 1.000 0.367 0.070 3.080 0.301 0.607 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 020102 1669 1994 326 1.000 0.414 0.004 2.382 0.315 0.658 21 020111 1636 1994 359 0.994 0.551 2.045 10.700 0.319 0.731 22 020112 1637 1994 358 0.998 0.455 1.084 5.285 0.295 0.709 23 020121 1771 1941 171 0.995 0.444 0.599 3.379 0.271 0.722 24 020122 1762 1994 233 0.986 0.499 0.733 3.505 0.306 0.757 25 020131 1808 1994 187 1.024 0.387 0.532 3.614 0.278 0.649 26 020132 1816 1994 179 1.002 0.364 0.221 3.366 0.308 0.549 27 020141 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.320 0.282 3.205 0.266 0.508 28 020142 1766 1994 229 1.000 0.316 -0.014 3.001 0.258 0.543 29 020151 1756 1994 239 1.002 0.468 1.027 5.120 0.296 0.749 30 020152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.431 0.711 3.806 0.293 0.695 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 250 1.000 0.446 0.662 4.249 0.311 0.658 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.005 0.101 0.545 1.827 0.050 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 231 1.000 0.433 0.561 3.559 0.302 0.654 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 130 0.001 0.103 0.690 2.056 0.033 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.986 0.316 -0.176 2.382 0.219 0.466 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.369 0.282 3.064 0.287 0.594 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 322 1.001 0.472 0.973 5.120 0.320 0.731 MAXIMUM VALUE 359 1.024 0.740 2.045 10.700 0.445 0.821 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 020011 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 020012 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 020021 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 020022 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 020031 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 020032 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 020041 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 020042 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 020051 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 020052 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 020061 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 020062 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 020071 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 020072 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 020081 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 020082 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 020091 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 020092 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 020101 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 020102 -67 218 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 020111 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 020112 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 020121 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 020122 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 020131 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 020132 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 020141 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 020142 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 020151 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 020152 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 020011 1659 1994 336 0.987 0.696 1.825 7.299 0.416 0.798 2 020012 1636 1994 359 0.993 0.517 0.603 3.395 0.432 0.605 3 020021 1782 1964 183 0.994 0.452 0.237 2.352 0.291 0.726 4 020022 1776 1979 204 0.997 0.373 0.439 3.965 0.303 0.565 5 020031 1796 1990 195 0.992 0.631 0.980 4.665 0.444 0.750 6 020032 1867 1994 128 0.993 0.636 0.633 2.715 0.368 0.787 7 020041 1785 1994 210 0.998 0.444 0.867 4.175 0.273 0.726 8 020042 1803 1994 192 0.996 0.384 0.657 3.982 0.219 0.783 9 020051 1652 1994 343 0.997 0.335 0.173 3.096 0.256 0.612 10 020052 1677 1994 318 0.995 0.398 0.646 4.302 0.297 0.641 11 020061 1800 1994 195 0.998 0.361 0.234 3.006 0.299 0.520 12 020062 1823 1994 172 0.997 0.396 0.413 3.498 0.287 0.624 13 020071 1655 1976 322 0.995 0.400 0.585 3.478 0.331 0.519 14 020072 1656 1994 339 0.997 0.455 1.168 6.485 0.339 0.581 15 020081 1779 1994 216 0.996 0.477 0.974 4.685 0.320 0.712 16 020082 1802 1993 192 0.997 0.423 0.816 4.945 0.314 0.630 17 020091 1706 1994 289 0.998 0.319 -0.266 3.134 0.307 0.441 18 020092 1722 1994 273 0.997 0.328 -0.284 3.116 0.322 0.415 19 020101 1684 1994 311 0.999 0.362 0.088 3.247 0.301 0.597 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 020102 1669 1994 326 0.997 0.402 0.107 2.855 0.315 0.641 21 020111 1636 1994 359 0.995 0.507 1.538 7.810 0.319 0.696 22 020112 1637 1994 358 0.993 0.414 1.167 6.547 0.295 0.650 23 020121 1771 1941 171 0.998 0.441 0.596 3.417 0.271 0.721 24 020122 1762 1994 233 0.996 0.446 0.330 3.008 0.307 0.688 25 020131 1808 1994 187 0.996 0.342 0.529 4.041 0.278 0.574 26 020132 1816 1994 179 0.998 0.348 0.150 3.410 0.307 0.514 27 020141 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.313 0.123 3.008 0.266 0.490 28 020142 1766 1994 229 0.999 0.314 -0.033 3.018 0.258 0.539 29 020151 1756 1994 239 0.996 0.410 0.703 4.690 0.296 0.659 30 020152 1760 1994 235 0.997 0.395 0.758 4.825 0.293 0.640 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 250 0.996 0.424 0.559 4.072 0.311 0.628 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.003 0.095 0.487 1.378 0.049 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 231 0.997 0.401 0.591 3.488 0.302 0.635 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 130 0.002 0.090 0.642 1.589 0.034 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.987 0.313 -0.284 2.352 0.219 0.415 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.995 0.361 0.173 3.096 0.287 0.565 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 322 0.998 0.452 0.816 4.685 0.320 0.712 MAXIMUM VALUE 359 1.000 0.696 1.825 7.810 0.444 0.798 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.556 0.106 0.005 0.131 3.446 0.232 0.886 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.232 SERIES 020011 AND 020112 336 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.886 SERIES 020121 AND 020122 171 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1661. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. CORR 1. 21. 45. 55. 66. 105. 231. 351. 406. 406. RBAR 0.498 0.407 0.343 0.340 0.410 0.501 0.569 0.578 0.593 0.662 SDEV 0.000 0.163 0.207 0.238 0.202 0.143 0.160 0.146 0.157 0.119 SERR 0.000 0.036 0.031 0.032 0.025 0.014 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.006 EPS 0.856 0.867 0.852 0.863 0.916 0.956 0.972 0.975 0.977 0.983 NSS 6.0 9.5 11.0 12.2 15.7 21.7 26.6 28.8 29.5 30.0 YEAR 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 435. 406. 325. RBAR 0.655 0.599 0.565 SDEV 0.141 0.148 0.145 SERR 0.007 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.983 0.978 0.973 NSS 30.0 29.5 28.1 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1636 1994 359 0.977 0.298 0.025 3.200 0.228 0.630 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.476 0.165 0.116 134 225 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 1.03 1.00 1.07 2.10 11.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.63 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.629 0.354 0.166 0.060 0.011 -0.019 -0.028 -0.053 -0.074 -0.095 PACF 0.629 -0.068 -0.048 -0.014 0.000 -0.021 -0.003 -0.044 -0.032 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.106 0.141 0.151 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.154 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.405 0.634 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.666 0.401 0.238 0.144 0.083 0.036 -0.016 -0.096 -0.140 -0.179 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.666 2 0.718 -0.077 3 0.718 -0.079 0.003 4 0.718 -0.079 0.000 0.004 5 0.718 -0.079 -0.001 0.010 -0.008 6 0.718 -0.079 -0.001 0.009 0.006 -0.020 7 0.717 -0.078 0.000 0.009 0.002 0.015 -0.049 8 0.712 -0.077 0.000 0.009 0.002 0.007 0.025 -0.102 9 0.708 -0.076 0.000 0.009 0.003 0.007 0.022 -0.079 -0.033 10 0.706 -0.082 0.002 0.010 0.003 0.008 0.022 -0.084 0.019 -0.073 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3536.07 3327.44 3327.30 3329.30 3331.29 3333.27 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3335.13 3336.27 3334.49 3336.09 3336.15 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.718 -0.077 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 44.72 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 180.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.718 0.438 0.259 0.152 0.089 0.052 0.031 0.018 0.011 0.0062 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 020011 2 0.673 0.870 -0.061 2 020012 2 0.373 0.573 0.058 3 020021 2 0.538 0.725 0.011 4 020022 2 0.328 0.536 0.053 5 020031 2 0.564 0.770 -0.025 6 020032 2 0.624 0.833 -0.058 7 020041 2 0.541 0.841 -0.157 8 020042 2 0.630 0.922 -0.172 9 020051 2 0.377 0.607 0.011 10 020052 2 0.417 0.672 -0.046 11 020061 2 0.283 0.581 -0.115 12 020062 2 0.411 0.722 -0.147 13 020071 2 0.286 0.445 0.143 14 020072 2 0.343 0.543 0.068 15 020081 2 0.535 0.878 -0.233 16 020082 2 0.415 0.657 -0.038 17 020091 2 0.202 0.470 -0.063 18 020092 2 0.173 0.417 -0.004 19 020101 2 0.359 0.617 -0.033 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 020102 2 0.413 0.653 -0.017 21 020111 2 0.500 0.808 -0.159 22 020112 2 0.428 0.652 0.000 23 020121 2 0.525 0.773 -0.070 24 020122 2 0.475 0.720 -0.047 25 020131 2 0.331 0.595 -0.035 26 020132 2 0.266 0.522 -0.016 27 020141 2 0.259 0.518 -0.056 28 020142 2 0.308 0.542 -0.003 29 020151 2 0.443 0.701 -0.055 30 020152 2 0.418 0.672 -0.045 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.415 0.661 -0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.127 0.135 0.078 MEDIAN 2 0.414 0.655 -0.041 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.197 0.226 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.173 0.417 -0.233 LOWER HINGE 2 0.328 0.543 -0.063 UPPER HINGE 2 0.525 0.770 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.673 0.922 0.143 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 020011 1659 1994 336 1.002 0.386 0.435 5.004 0.465 -0.019 2 020012 1636 1994 359 1.000 0.407 0.352 3.224 0.488 0.000 3 020021 1782 1964 183 1.000 0.307 0.132 4.021 0.350 0.008 4 020022 1776 1979 204 1.000 0.307 0.265 3.676 0.345 -0.005 5 020031 1796 1990 195 1.005 0.403 1.129 8.517 0.443 -0.002 6 020032 1867 1994 128 1.002 0.387 0.409 3.872 0.435 -0.001 7 020041 1785 1994 210 1.000 0.301 0.263 5.152 0.345 -0.007 8 020042 1803 1994 192 1.000 0.234 0.187 3.826 0.264 0.008 9 020051 1652 1994 343 1.000 0.264 -0.101 3.902 0.311 0.002 10 020052 1677 1994 318 1.001 0.301 0.220 4.254 0.349 0.012 11 020061 1800 1994 195 1.000 0.306 -0.007 4.019 0.359 -0.005 12 020062 1823 1994 172 1.000 0.304 0.405 4.770 0.329 0.007 13 020071 1655 1976 322 1.001 0.336 0.282 3.429 0.382 -0.002 14 020072 1656 1994 339 1.001 0.366 0.649 5.192 0.417 0.002 15 020081 1779 1994 216 1.000 0.325 0.452 4.585 0.388 -0.014 16 020082 1802 1993 192 1.000 0.327 0.822 6.147 0.359 -0.008 17 020091 1706 1994 289 1.000 0.285 -0.309 3.563 0.344 0.003 18 020092 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.298 -0.230 3.255 0.349 0.000 19 020101 1684 1994 311 1.000 0.291 -0.227 3.494 0.343 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 020102 1669 1994 326 1.000 0.308 -0.117 3.366 0.362 0.001 21 020111 1636 1994 359 1.000 0.357 0.852 6.605 0.395 0.006 22 020112 1637 1994 358 1.001 0.311 0.149 4.562 0.355 0.002 23 020121 1771 1941 171 1.000 0.303 0.379 3.832 0.329 0.001 24 020122 1762 1994 233 1.001 0.320 -0.025 3.998 0.362 0.002 25 020131 1808 1994 187 1.000 0.280 0.098 3.582 0.335 0.000 26 020132 1816 1994 179 1.000 0.299 -0.432 3.809 0.369 0.001 27 020141 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.272 -0.005 3.508 0.320 -0.007 28 020142 1766 1994 229 1.000 0.264 -0.351 3.781 0.310 0.001 29 020151 1756 1994 239 1.000 0.304 0.015 3.638 0.371 -0.006 30 020152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.302 -0.010 3.552 0.358 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 250 1.000 0.315 0.189 4.271 0.364 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.001 0.041 0.367 1.145 0.047 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 231 1.000 0.305 0.168 3.852 0.356 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 130 0.001 0.029 0.430 1.022 0.039 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 128 1.000 0.234 -0.432 3.224 0.264 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.298 -0.025 3.563 0.343 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 322 1.001 0.327 0.405 4.585 0.382 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 359 1.005 0.407 1.129 8.517 0.488 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.516 0.082 0.004 0.298 4.299 0.304 0.838 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.304 SERIES 020062 AND 020072 172 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.838 SERIES 020091 AND 020092 273 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1661. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. CORR 1. 21. 45. 55. 66. 105. 231. 351. 406. 406. RBAR 0.449 0.476 0.392 0.409 0.490 0.510 0.496 0.508 0.552 0.593 SDEV 0.000 0.135 0.142 0.170 0.149 0.109 0.131 0.139 0.135 0.111 SERR 0.000 0.030 0.021 0.023 0.018 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.006 EPS 0.830 0.896 0.877 0.894 0.938 0.958 0.963 0.967 0.973 0.978 NSS 6.0 9.5 11.0 12.2 15.7 21.7 26.6 28.8 29.5 30.0 YEAR 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 435. 406. 325. RBAR 0.544 0.573 0.568 SDEV 0.136 0.118 0.102 SERR 0.007 0.006 0.006 EPS 0.973 0.975 0.974 NSS 30.0 29.5 28.1 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1636 1994 359 0.996 0.223 -0.265 3.420 0.258 0.034 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.141 0.047 0.158 135 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.69 1.00 1.08 1.77 10.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.65 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.034 0.017 -0.041 -0.042 -0.011 -0.016 0.025 -0.027 -0.006 0.070 PACF 0.034 0.016 -0.042 -0.040 -0.007 -0.016 0.023 -0.031 -0.007 0.073 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.002 -0.041 -0.040 -0.009 -0.015 0.026 -0.029 -0.006 0.078 PACF 0.001 0.002 -0.041 -0.040 -0.009 -0.017 0.023 -0.031 -0.008 0.079 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1636 1994 359 0.998 0.297 0.051 3.185 0.217 0.653 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.652 0.362 0.164 0.057 0.014 -0.005 -0.010 -0.038 -0.056 -0.088 PACF 0.652 -0.108 -0.048 -0.005 0.009 -0.009 -0.001 -0.051 -0.015 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.106 0.144 0.153 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.437 0.723 -0.103 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES