RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 031 1 Tyn hill (Altai) WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 031 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 650 5414-8935 1613 1994 - 031 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 031441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 28 IN 1 GAPS / 1749 1776 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 031471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 031482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 42 IN 1 GAPS / 1839 1880 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 031491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1876 1877 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 031501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 031502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 031521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 031551 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1778 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.794 0.716 3.126 15.090 0.430 0.656 2 031412 1830 1994 165 0.962 0.730 2.035 7.769 0.442 0.697 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.917 0.403 0.676 3.603 0.379 0.398 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.032 0.575 1.250 4.955 0.334 0.695 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.709 0.746 2.685 11.048 0.429 0.796 6 031432 1788 1963 176 0.516 0.531 3.647 17.867 0.444 0.682 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.455 0.440 1.982 6.595 0.404 0.872 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.360 0.186 1.088 4.333 0.355 0.652 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.768 0.318 0.140 2.426 0.282 0.692 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.863 0.414 0.921 3.817 0.306 0.669 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.069 0.512 0.693 3.255 0.381 0.490 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.347 0.750 1.064 4.659 0.390 0.623 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.267 0.154 1.797 8.668 0.407 0.628 14 031472 1634 1994 361 0.270 0.253 3.659 18.909 0.393 0.876 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.477 0.313 1.354 5.258 0.388 0.762 16 031482 1671 1994 324 0.429 0.506 3.297 15.351 0.419 0.902 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.393 0.360 1.759 5.818 0.347 0.878 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.364 0.222 1.589 5.482 0.304 0.766 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.294 0.130 0.307 2.756 0.406 0.472 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.405 0.232 1.163 4.741 0.440 0.616 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.083 0.471 0.865 3.357 0.268 0.630 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.058 0.655 0.820 2.885 0.300 0.781 23 031521 1798 1994 197 0.821 0.546 1.217 3.725 0.313 0.778 24 031522 1806 1994 189 0.907 0.684 1.329 3.942 0.321 0.828 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.403 0.700 0.360 2.483 0.387 0.558 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.035 0.570 1.139 4.191 0.378 0.616 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.945 0.628 1.442 5.337 0.390 0.748 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.129 0.780 1.346 4.879 0.429 0.640 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.722 0.557 2.004 7.295 0.448 0.656 30 031552 1753 1994 242 0.756 0.588 1.684 5.648 0.465 0.676 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1613 TO 1994 382 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.752 0.489 1.548 6.538 0.379 0.691 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.326 0.196 0.935 4.547 0.055 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 0.781 0.521 1.337 4.917 0.389 0.679 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.604 0.337 1.062 3.570 0.095 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.267 0.130 0.140 2.426 0.268 0.398 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.429 0.318 0.921 3.725 0.334 0.628 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.032 0.655 1.982 7.295 0.429 0.778 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.403 0.780 3.659 18.909 0.465 0.902 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.473 0.207 0.010 -0.584 2.725 -0.089 0.908 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.089 SERIES 031481 AND 031541 154 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.908 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.085 0.190 0.498 0.468 0.540 0.492 0.382 0.527 0.511 0.534 SDEV 0.316 0.304 0.319 0.329 0.160 0.237 0.240 0.184 0.184 0.188 SERR 0.129 0.096 0.053 0.055 0.024 0.029 0.025 0.017 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.355 0.656 0.904 0.903 0.934 0.932 0.914 0.962 0.968 0.971 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.528 0.554 0.487 SDEV 0.180 0.174 0.207 SERR 0.009 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.969 0.971 0.962 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.517 0.240 0.934 4.160 0.332 0.636 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.873 0.855 -0.093 156 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.11 6.16 1.00 1.69 7.85 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 182. 119. 122. 154. 273. 361. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.634 0.548 0.477 0.405 0.307 0.241 0.201 0.206 0.164 0.172 PACF 0.634 0.244 0.105 0.028 -0.061 -0.032 0.010 0.087 -0.005 0.053 95% C.L. 0.102 0.137 0.159 0.173 0.183 0.188 0.191 0.193 0.196 0.197 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.448 0.453 0.194 0.109 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 1 5.35513020 0.25784972 0.00000000 0.68120676 2 031412 1 3.54674673 0.13458291 0.00000000 0.81284958 3 031421 1 0.53662789 0.00909070 0.00000000 0.59461671 4 031422 1 1.49375010 0.01942150 0.00000000 0.57269728 5 031431 1 4.07645273 0.09216102 0.00000000 0.50865185 6 031432 1 3.35950184 0.12789039 0.00000000 0.37633952 7 031441 1 1.86972713 0.03230992 0.00000000 0.20277134 8 031442 1 0.49442193 0.02544361 0.00000000 0.29940337 9 031451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00459117 1.08511162 10 031452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00253351 1.04204106 11 031461 1 1.10711694 0.04007860 0.00000000 0.87996280 12 031462 1 2.25305939 0.00822859 0.00000000 0.11214753 13 031471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014088 0.30170226 14 031472 1 1.41245055 0.04993707 0.00000000 0.19400635 15 031481 1 0.97661418 0.01849240 0.00000000 0.31156307 16 031482 1 2.60741949 0.04379683 0.00000000 0.22345591 17 031491 1 1.18683708 0.01496120 0.00000000 0.13197455 18 031492 1 0.66725105 0.02053249 0.00000000 0.24668489 19 031501 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026652 0.32676739 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047040 0.46603081 21 031511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00746396 1.65024102 22 031512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01172390 1.93153882 23 031521 1 1.77678263 0.01926010 0.00000000 0.36210090 24 031522 1 1.95260358 0.01634950 0.00000000 0.30862522 25 031531 1 1.11911702 0.02876309 0.00000000 1.15661299 26 031532 1 1.28626394 0.06293360 0.00000000 0.88920641 27 031541 1 2.13592386 0.04241707 0.00000000 0.62538427 28 031542 1 2.27190351 0.03594214 0.00000000 0.74248910 29 031551 1 1.92241204 0.03293930 0.00000000 0.48652223 30 031552 1 1.43974924 0.01556589 0.00000000 0.38566706 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.002 0.646 1.273 5.087 0.428 0.644 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.002 0.584 0.996 4.184 0.441 0.557 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.411 0.295 2.948 0.375 0.384 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.402 0.437 3.063 0.333 0.557 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.002 0.744 1.945 8.239 0.425 0.677 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.004 0.548 1.093 4.800 0.439 0.522 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.003 0.460 0.474 3.371 0.412 0.441 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.438 0.830 4.368 0.354 0.540 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.354 0.187 3.237 0.281 0.594 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.998 0.460 0.867 3.619 0.304 0.663 11 031461 1852 1994 143 0.999 0.416 0.324 3.186 0.378 0.380 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.997 0.430 0.675 4.479 0.388 0.413 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.542 1.626 8.527 0.413 0.583 14 031472 1634 1994 361 0.999 0.425 0.144 2.777 0.392 0.425 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.471 0.304 3.048 0.387 0.556 16 031482 1671 1994 324 0.989 0.399 0.191 3.067 0.397 0.362 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.014 0.496 0.547 2.794 0.347 0.677 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.999 0.402 0.687 4.361 0.303 0.595 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.999 0.476 0.224 2.569 0.404 0.549 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.999 0.565 1.157 4.666 0.439 0.601 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.004 0.303 0.351 2.982 0.267 0.372 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.036 0.468 1.458 6.202 0.298 0.631 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.002 0.369 0.194 3.229 0.312 0.497 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.004 0.474 0.582 3.400 0.320 0.628 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.470 0.360 2.766 0.385 0.519 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.999 0.485 0.738 3.298 0.376 0.568 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.460 0.245 2.533 0.389 0.531 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.539 0.955 4.900 0.427 0.575 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.510 1.039 4.820 0.444 0.452 30 031552 1753 1994 242 0.999 0.556 0.960 4.240 0.464 0.498 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.002 0.477 0.705 4.025 0.377 0.533 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.008 0.089 0.471 1.489 0.054 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.469 0.629 3.385 0.387 0.553 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.002 0.123 0.693 1.619 0.093 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.989 0.303 0.144 2.533 0.267 0.362 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.999 0.416 0.304 3.048 0.333 0.452 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.002 0.539 0.996 4.666 0.425 0.595 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.036 0.744 1.945 8.527 0.464 0.677 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 031412 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 031421 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 031422 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 031431 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 031432 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 031441 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 031442 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 031451 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 031452 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 031461 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 031462 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 031471 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 031472 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 031481 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 031482 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 031491 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 031492 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 031501 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 031511 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 031512 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 031521 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 031522 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 031531 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 031532 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 031541 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 031542 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 031551 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 031552 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.988 0.504 0.489 3.143 0.428 0.488 2 031412 1830 1994 165 0.989 0.516 0.563 3.063 0.440 0.491 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.996 0.402 0.287 3.005 0.375 0.364 4 031422 1837 1994 158 0.995 0.385 0.283 2.859 0.333 0.521 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.987 0.570 1.335 6.132 0.426 0.552 6 031432 1788 1963 176 0.997 0.464 0.554 3.529 0.440 0.405 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.990 0.401 -0.022 2.834 0.412 0.325 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.992 0.404 0.573 3.804 0.354 0.476 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.992 0.322 -0.062 3.009 0.281 0.510 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.988 0.384 0.508 3.030 0.304 0.527 11 031461 1852 1994 143 0.995 0.406 0.550 4.030 0.379 0.337 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.996 0.400 0.365 3.615 0.388 0.331 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.992 0.476 0.980 6.073 0.413 0.507 14 031472 1634 1994 361 0.998 0.412 0.011 2.631 0.392 0.388 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.990 0.439 0.076 2.695 0.387 0.496 16 031482 1671 1994 324 0.999 0.398 0.338 3.629 0.397 0.342 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.992 0.430 0.554 3.334 0.347 0.556 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.995 0.374 0.629 4.059 0.303 0.519 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.997 0.469 0.221 2.562 0.404 0.536 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.989 0.500 0.991 4.506 0.440 0.500 21 031511 1844 1994 151 0.999 0.292 0.159 2.573 0.267 0.341 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.991 0.350 0.156 2.627 0.298 0.483 23 031521 1798 1994 197 0.999 0.366 0.322 3.626 0.312 0.476 24 031522 1806 1994 189 0.998 0.470 0.715 3.888 0.320 0.618 25 031531 1839 1992 154 0.995 0.452 0.375 3.144 0.385 0.459 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.995 0.432 0.425 3.229 0.376 0.450 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.996 0.416 0.004 2.211 0.389 0.448 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.993 0.488 0.517 3.255 0.427 0.516 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.996 0.499 0.973 4.504 0.444 0.430 30 031552 1753 1994 242 0.997 0.544 0.884 3.971 0.464 0.490 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.994 0.432 0.458 3.486 0.377 0.463 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.004 0.064 0.339 0.917 0.054 0.077 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 0.995 0.423 0.457 3.242 0.388 0.486 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.006 0.078 0.352 1.029 0.093 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.987 0.292 -0.062 2.211 0.267 0.325 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.991 0.398 0.221 2.859 0.333 0.405 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 0.997 0.476 0.573 3.888 0.426 0.516 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 0.999 0.570 1.335 6.132 0.464 0.618 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.514 0.110 0.005 -0.168 3.417 0.154 0.875 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.154 SERIES 031491 AND 031502 201 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 SERIES 031531 AND 031532 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.091 0.166 0.355 0.483 0.560 0.513 0.468 0.507 0.538 0.510 SDEV 0.350 0.366 0.271 0.272 0.127 0.199 0.211 0.183 0.156 0.179 SERR 0.143 0.116 0.045 0.045 0.019 0.025 0.022 0.017 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.372 0.617 0.839 0.908 0.938 0.937 0.938 0.959 0.971 0.968 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.568 0.555 0.534 SDEV 0.149 0.155 0.174 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.974 0.972 0.968 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.979 0.319 -0.090 2.885 0.321 0.337 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.330 0.132 0.144 119 263 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.48 1.00 1.07 1.55 197.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.336 0.285 0.222 0.140 0.093 -0.005 -0.025 -0.014 -0.095 -0.015 PACF 0.336 0.194 0.093 0.006 -0.010 -0.085 -0.040 0.013 -0.080 0.055 95% C.L. 0.102 0.113 0.121 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.154 0.253 0.169 0.093 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.396 0.337 0.228 0.169 0.055 -0.004 -0.066 -0.004 -0.049 -0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.396 2 0.312 0.213 3 0.302 0.198 0.048 4 0.301 0.194 0.042 0.018 5 0.302 0.198 0.057 0.041 -0.077 6 0.297 0.200 0.061 0.054 -0.058 -0.063 7 0.293 0.196 0.065 0.058 -0.044 -0.043 -0.068 8 0.298 0.199 0.068 0.054 -0.049 -0.057 -0.088 0.068 9 0.299 0.198 0.067 0.053 -0.048 -0.055 -0.085 0.074 -0.017 10 0.299 0.196 0.068 0.054 -0.047 -0.057 -0.086 0.070 -0.023 0.019 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3670.20 3606.90 3591.18 3592.31 3594.18 3593.91 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3594.36 3594.59 3594.80 3596.68 3598.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.312 0.213 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 19.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 124.27 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.312 0.310 0.163 0.117 0.071 0.047 0.030 0.019 0.012 0.0080 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 031411 2 0.264 0.412 0.162 2 031412 2 0.310 0.350 0.294 3 031421 2 0.137 0.349 0.050 4 031422 2 0.286 0.450 0.137 5 031431 2 0.327 0.463 0.163 6 031432 2 0.204 0.320 0.213 7 031441 2 0.126 0.280 0.140 8 031442 2 0.267 0.373 0.217 9 031451 2 0.346 0.341 0.335 10 031452 2 0.325 0.473 0.104 11 031461 2 0.136 0.293 0.132 12 031462 2 0.141 0.270 0.187 13 031471 2 0.290 0.406 0.202 14 031472 2 0.186 0.317 0.184 15 031481 2 0.324 0.349 0.303 16 031482 2 0.217 0.240 0.304 17 031491 2 0.350 0.447 0.198 18 031492 2 0.322 0.389 0.252 19 031501 2 0.346 0.406 0.243 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 031502 2 0.259 0.470 0.064 21 031511 2 0.119 0.342 -0.002 22 031512 2 0.257 0.406 0.164 23 031521 2 0.251 0.395 0.173 24 031522 2 0.409 0.501 0.192 25 031531 2 0.228 0.397 0.136 26 031532 2 0.218 0.395 0.125 27 031541 2 0.224 0.381 0.152 28 031542 2 0.275 0.492 0.049 29 031551 2 0.208 0.364 0.155 30 031552 2 0.311 0.353 0.281 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.255 0.381 0.177 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.076 0.066 0.081 MEDIAN 2 0.261 0.385 0.169 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.114 0.070 0.081 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.119 0.240 -0.002 LOWER HINGE 2 0.208 0.342 0.136 UPPER HINGE 2 0.322 0.412 0.217 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.409 0.501 0.335 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.002 0.429 0.437 3.335 0.509 0.006 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.002 0.424 0.330 3.330 0.513 -0.007 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.373 0.354 3.215 0.422 -0.004 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.325 -0.015 3.296 0.388 -0.005 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.004 0.457 0.916 5.241 0.488 0.030 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.413 0.069 2.966 0.497 -0.006 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.001 0.373 -0.241 2.915 0.453 -0.007 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.001 0.345 0.001 3.753 0.413 -0.016 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.260 -0.335 3.278 0.316 -0.010 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.324 0.214 3.964 0.380 -0.024 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.378 0.495 4.020 0.435 -0.011 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.369 0.100 3.438 0.436 -0.001 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.001 0.397 0.537 6.192 0.472 -0.004 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.001 0.371 -0.184 2.862 0.451 -0.016 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.360 -0.025 2.990 0.432 -0.026 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.356 0.217 3.420 0.428 -0.044 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.350 0.302 3.841 0.407 -0.028 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.309 0.253 3.605 0.349 -0.022 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.001 0.382 0.043 2.945 0.457 -0.034 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.001 0.429 0.513 3.702 0.521 -0.005 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.275 0.169 3.184 0.314 0.000 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.301 0.314 2.812 0.348 -0.009 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.317 0.077 3.691 0.376 -0.001 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.362 0.342 4.371 0.417 -0.010 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.397 0.524 3.538 0.449 -0.008 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.382 0.224 3.272 0.445 -0.007 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.368 -0.032 2.425 0.445 -0.012 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.417 0.288 2.724 0.485 -0.005 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.444 0.496 3.596 0.513 -0.010 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.001 0.453 0.407 3.578 0.528 -0.035 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.371 0.226 3.517 0.436 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.001 0.050 0.267 0.743 0.059 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.372 0.239 3.377 0.440 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.001 0.068 0.365 0.711 0.078 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.260 -0.335 2.425 0.314 -0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.345 0.043 2.990 0.407 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.001 0.413 0.407 3.702 0.485 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.004 0.457 0.916 6.192 0.528 0.030 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.554 0.081 0.004 0.229 3.793 0.320 0.865 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.320 SERIES 031411 AND 031491 161 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.865 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.058 0.196 0.385 0.549 0.668 0.668 0.578 0.604 0.574 0.530 SDEV 0.305 0.315 0.245 0.222 0.109 0.095 0.112 0.110 0.116 0.140 SERR 0.125 0.100 0.041 0.037 0.016 0.012 0.012 0.010 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.270 0.665 0.856 0.928 0.960 0.966 0.959 0.972 0.975 0.971 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.584 0.574 0.547 SDEV 0.120 0.118 0.125 SERR 0.006 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.975 0.974 0.970 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.994 0.291 -0.334 3.081 0.362 -0.121 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.231 0.083 0.139 114 268 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.65 1.00 1.08 1.73 22.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.121 -0.060 0.053 0.028 0.032 -0.065 -0.022 0.012 -0.091 0.051 PACF -0.121 -0.076 0.037 0.036 0.047 -0.055 -0.036 -0.008 -0.093 0.035 95% C.L. 0.102 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.106 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 -0.130 -0.076 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.007 0.044 0.031 0.031 -0.063 -0.035 -0.005 -0.090 0.039 PACF 0.003 0.007 0.044 0.031 0.030 -0.066 -0.038 -0.008 -0.087 0.046 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.003 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.994 0.325 -0.030 2.948 0.303 0.417 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.416 0.360 0.236 0.157 0.091 -0.009 -0.034 -0.038 -0.095 -0.023 PACF 0.416 0.226 0.034 -0.012 -0.024 -0.090 -0.035 0.010 -0.064 0.063 95% C.L. 0.102 0.119 0.130 0.134 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.217 0.322 0.226 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES