RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 031 1 Tyn hill (Altai) DENSITY_EARLY PISY - 031 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 650 5414-8935 1613 1994 - 031 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 031432 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 031441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 3 GAPS / 1749 1776 / 1850 1850 / 1901 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 031442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1896 1896 / 1910 1910 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 031471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 031472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1792 1792 / 1840 1840 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 031481 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1840 1840 / 1850 1850 / 1901 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 031482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 45 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1839 1880 / 1901 1901 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 031491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1876 1877 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 031501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 3 GAPS / 1715 1715 / 1772 1772 / 1900 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 031502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1715 1715 / 1842 1842 / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 031521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 031551 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1778 1778 / 1850 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 031552 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 3.426 0.293 1.016 5.577 0.076 0.276 2 031412 1830 1994 165 3.317 0.291 1.613 8.243 0.072 0.307 3 031421 1873 1994 122 3.191 0.251 0.165 2.985 0.058 0.570 4 031422 1837 1994 158 3.127 0.292 0.606 3.320 0.072 0.481 5 031431 1784 1994 211 3.178 0.492 1.161 4.974 0.090 0.677 6 031432 1788 1963 176 3.098 0.301 1.092 4.163 0.067 0.550 7 031441 1653 1907 255 3.412 0.434 0.974 4.723 0.065 0.708 8 031442 1678 1994 317 2.988 0.263 0.313 3.029 0.060 0.628 9 031451 1858 1994 137 2.924 0.329 0.497 2.605 0.064 0.679 10 031452 1855 1994 140 2.991 0.306 0.302 3.849 0.064 0.587 11 031461 1852 1994 143 2.900 0.278 0.494 3.105 0.089 0.267 12 031462 1832 1994 163 3.087 0.373 1.615 9.443 0.104 0.244 13 031471 1644 1994 351 3.026 0.478 1.194 4.902 0.086 0.745 14 031472 1634 1994 361 2.807 0.290 0.532 3.771 0.080 0.409 15 031481 1680 1994 315 3.003 0.361 1.287 6.419 0.085 0.498 16 031482 1671 1994 324 2.646 0.287 0.687 4.401 0.096 0.339 17 031491 1695 1994 300 3.307 0.472 0.078 2.512 0.070 0.748 18 031492 1722 1994 273 3.091 0.499 0.785 3.089 0.078 0.793 19 031501 1613 1947 335 2.996 0.336 0.704 3.698 0.073 0.622 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 3.335 0.382 1.158 5.450 0.086 0.493 21 031511 1844 1994 151 2.778 0.287 0.418 3.963 0.076 0.529 22 031512 1847 1994 148 2.726 0.396 -0.054 2.421 0.078 0.754 23 031521 1798 1994 197 3.296 0.356 0.475 3.585 0.082 0.536 24 031522 1806 1994 189 3.165 0.439 0.127 2.575 0.089 0.675 25 031531 1839 1992 154 2.733 0.313 0.990 5.424 0.084 0.467 26 031532 1859 1994 136 2.999 0.268 0.301 2.784 0.071 0.503 27 031541 1841 1994 154 3.023 0.433 0.696 3.721 0.079 0.673 28 031542 1835 1994 160 3.184 0.365 0.261 2.819 0.078 0.575 29 031551 1757 1994 238 3.278 0.401 0.791 3.672 0.070 0.694 30 031552 1753 1994 242 2.807 0.379 1.268 5.251 0.092 0.512 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1613 TO 1994 382 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 3.061 0.355 0.718 4.216 0.078 0.551 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.211 0.074 0.451 1.649 0.011 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 3.056 0.346 0.692 3.746 0.078 0.560 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.267 0.110 0.779 1.946 0.016 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 122 2.646 0.251 -0.054 2.421 0.058 0.244 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 2.924 0.291 0.313 3.029 0.070 0.481 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 3.191 0.401 1.092 4.974 0.086 0.677 MAXIMUM VALUE 357 3.426 0.499 1.615 9.443 0.104 0.793 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.434 0.177 0.008 -0.802 4.105 -0.246 0.841 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.246 SERIES 031471 AND 031501 304 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.841 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.238 0.056 0.243 0.313 0.545 0.515 0.272 0.330 0.410 0.355 SDEV 0.193 0.335 0.235 0.234 0.177 0.142 0.255 0.213 0.201 0.192 SERR 0.079 0.106 0.039 0.039 0.026 0.017 0.027 0.019 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.651 0.326 0.752 0.828 0.935 0.937 0.864 0.919 0.952 0.942 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.423 0.374 0.474 SDEV 0.185 0.181 0.156 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.954 0.942 0.960 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 3.101 0.259 0.813 5.140 0.064 0.470 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.030 0.016 0.298 87 295 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.56 1.00 1.06 1.62 41.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 182. 119. 122. 154. 273. 361. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.469 0.434 0.446 0.420 0.415 0.336 0.378 0.306 0.344 0.382 PACF 0.469 0.275 0.235 0.151 0.129 -0.006 0.099 -0.027 0.084 0.126 95% C.L. 0.102 0.123 0.138 0.152 0.164 0.175 0.181 0.189 0.194 0.201 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.370 0.202 0.141 0.169 0.143 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00157272 3.55378795 2 031412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00223933 3.50241017 3 031421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00334428 3.39657497 4 031422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00344433 3.40091252 5 031431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00337818 3.53619099 6 031432 1 0.65906405 0.01628136 0.00000000 2.88523602 7 031441 1 1.24676383 0.00448663 0.00000000 2.66266537 8 031442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00131012 3.19608617 9 031451 1 1.22502804 0.00931649 0.00000000 2.23491335 10 031452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00387503 3.26368952 11 031461 1 0.14954576 0.02873243 0.00000000 2.86478376 12 031462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00193667 3.24604630 13 031471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00177147 3.43339205 14 031472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064686 2.92792940 15 031481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022237 3.04625511 16 031482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055720 2.73977351 17 031491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00346857 3.83285379 18 031492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00447454 3.70363426 19 031501 1 0.86067271 0.03368157 0.00000000 2.93584085 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 1 0.41932362 0.02893307 0.00000000 3.28205609 21 031511 1 1.84735298 0.00225587 0.00000000 1.21409440 22 031512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00712383 3.25626588 23 031521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00249842 3.54257250 24 031522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00389490 3.53504157 25 031531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00363408 3.01469302 26 031532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00159386 3.10785627 27 031541 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00749646 3.60383248 28 031542 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00532459 3.61237979 29 031551 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074129 3.36912894 30 031552 1 0.86675620 0.01531806 0.00000000 2.58190966 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.083 1.014 5.102 0.076 0.216 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.081 1.554 7.167 0.072 0.189 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.069 0.261 3.033 0.058 0.439 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.078 0.883 4.384 0.071 0.286 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.000 0.139 1.570 7.220 0.089 0.603 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.081 1.451 5.963 0.068 0.341 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.101 1.772 11.046 0.069 0.496 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.078 0.728 3.550 0.060 0.515 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.073 1.146 5.538 0.063 0.252 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.088 0.499 3.402 0.063 0.453 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.095 0.505 3.134 0.089 0.250 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.116 1.523 8.303 0.104 0.204 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.152 0.880 3.545 0.087 0.699 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.102 0.720 3.919 0.082 0.358 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.122 1.276 6.204 0.088 0.518 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.107 0.747 4.257 0.098 0.278 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.110 0.882 5.165 0.072 0.561 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.108 0.719 3.524 0.078 0.540 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.098 0.475 2.973 0.073 0.531 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.112 1.423 6.690 0.087 0.455 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.087 0.250 2.951 0.075 0.330 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.092 0.397 2.927 0.077 0.439 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.098 0.583 3.346 0.082 0.431 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.121 0.163 2.249 0.089 0.547 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.097 1.418 6.699 0.083 0.290 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.087 0.230 2.955 0.070 0.471 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.087 1.134 5.512 0.079 0.201 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.083 0.545 2.968 0.077 0.247 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.123 0.857 3.648 0.070 0.685 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.107 0.699 3.538 0.093 0.287 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.099 0.877 4.697 0.078 0.404 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.019 0.458 2.005 0.011 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.098 0.802 3.784 0.077 0.435 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.026 0.771 2.829 0.017 0.240 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.069 0.163 2.249 0.058 0.189 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.083 0.505 3.134 0.070 0.278 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.110 1.276 5.963 0.087 0.518 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.152 1.772 11.046 0.104 0.699 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 031412 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 031421 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 031422 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 031431 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 031432 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 031441 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 031442 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 031451 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 031452 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 031461 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 031462 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 031471 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 031472 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 031481 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 031482 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 031491 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 031492 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 031501 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 031511 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 031512 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 031521 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 031522 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 031531 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 031532 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 031541 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 031542 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 031551 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 031552 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.081 1.098 5.544 0.076 0.174 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.080 1.531 7.194 0.072 0.166 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.058 0.263 2.841 0.058 0.211 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.073 0.704 3.946 0.071 0.180 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.999 0.119 1.237 5.889 0.089 0.483 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.078 1.414 5.741 0.068 0.292 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.096 1.750 10.980 0.069 0.445 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.071 0.471 3.163 0.060 0.410 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.071 1.318 6.576 0.063 0.208 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.078 0.499 3.589 0.063 0.319 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.094 0.671 3.582 0.089 0.225 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.112 1.662 9.777 0.104 0.138 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.999 0.115 0.687 3.978 0.087 0.491 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.096 0.834 4.304 0.082 0.274 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.999 0.111 1.136 5.865 0.088 0.421 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.104 0.672 3.911 0.098 0.242 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.999 0.085 1.364 7.033 0.072 0.293 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.999 0.100 0.766 3.602 0.078 0.468 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.083 0.531 3.165 0.073 0.342 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.105 1.708 8.367 0.087 0.374 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.086 0.231 2.954 0.075 0.325 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.079 0.373 3.126 0.077 0.232 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.085 0.641 3.962 0.082 0.234 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.112 0.111 2.497 0.089 0.481 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.093 1.393 6.156 0.083 0.226 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.082 0.170 2.805 0.070 0.398 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.085 1.166 5.812 0.078 0.155 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.079 0.539 3.096 0.077 0.163 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.999 0.106 0.710 3.521 0.070 0.567 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.103 0.684 3.719 0.093 0.226 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.091 0.878 4.890 0.078 0.305 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.015 0.483 2.148 0.011 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.086 0.707 3.954 0.077 0.283 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.025 0.787 2.724 0.017 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.999 0.058 0.111 2.497 0.058 0.138 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.079 0.531 3.165 0.070 0.211 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.104 1.318 5.889 0.087 0.410 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.119 1.750 10.980 0.104 0.567 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.372 0.122 0.006 -0.196 3.700 -0.085 0.755 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.085 SERIES 031431 AND 031502 112 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.755 SERIES 031411 AND 031412 161 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.175 0.061 0.264 0.337 0.542 0.534 0.299 0.355 0.401 0.378 SDEV 0.217 0.261 0.220 0.220 0.174 0.127 0.212 0.203 0.191 0.192 SERR 0.089 0.083 0.037 0.037 0.026 0.016 0.022 0.019 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.558 0.345 0.773 0.843 0.934 0.942 0.879 0.927 0.950 0.947 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.393 0.392 0.440 SDEV 0.177 0.160 0.154 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.948 0.947 0.954 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.994 0.059 0.776 4.083 0.062 0.078 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.307 0.149 -0.083 134 248 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.00 1.00 1.11 2.11 133.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.078 -0.016 0.021 0.061 0.066 -0.042 0.024 -0.040 0.018 0.095 PACF 0.078 -0.023 0.024 0.058 0.058 -0.050 0.031 -0.053 0.022 0.092 95% C.L. 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.079 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.135 -0.038 0.022 0.143 0.020 -0.008 0.005 -0.019 0.016 0.074 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.135 2 0.143 -0.057 3 0.145 -0.062 0.036 4 0.140 -0.054 0.016 0.135 5 0.142 -0.054 0.015 0.138 -0.017 6 0.142 -0.054 0.015 0.138 -0.018 0.004 7 0.142 -0.054 0.015 0.138 -0.018 0.004 0.001 8 0.142 -0.054 0.014 0.144 -0.017 0.001 0.006 -0.042 9 0.144 -0.054 0.014 0.144 -0.021 0.001 0.008 -0.045 0.026 10 0.142 -0.051 0.014 0.144 -0.019 -0.009 0.007 -0.042 0.016 0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2363.77 2358.73 2359.48 2360.99 2355.92 2357.81 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2359.80 2361.80 2363.14 2364.88 2365.04 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.135 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.83 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.86 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.135 0.018 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 031411 1 0.034 0.182 2 031412 1 0.040 0.169 3 031421 1 0.045 0.212 4 031422 1 0.044 0.183 5 031431 1 0.277 0.485 6 031432 1 0.090 0.292 7 031441 1 0.215 0.448 8 031442 1 0.193 0.414 9 031451 1 0.053 0.209 10 031452 1 0.113 0.335 11 031461 1 0.052 0.227 12 031462 1 0.019 0.139 13 031471 1 0.257 0.499 14 031472 1 0.101 0.279 15 031481 1 0.208 0.424 16 031482 1 0.071 0.243 17 031491 1 0.091 0.298 18 031492 1 0.231 0.473 19 031501 1 0.134 0.344 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 031502 1 0.151 0.374 21 031511 1 0.112 0.331 22 031512 1 0.059 0.235 23 031521 1 0.063 0.238 24 031522 1 0.242 0.484 25 031531 1 0.068 0.226 26 031532 1 0.161 0.400 27 031541 1 0.027 0.155 28 031542 1 0.029 0.164 29 031551 1 0.360 0.578 30 031552 1 0.054 0.227 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.120 0.309 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.090 0.123 MEDIAN 1 0.091 0.286 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.141 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.019 0.139 LOWER HINGE 1 0.052 0.212 UPPER HINGE 1 0.193 0.414 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.360 0.578 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.080 1.098 5.509 0.081 0.009 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.079 1.500 7.302 0.078 -0.015 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.057 0.290 2.799 0.064 -0.004 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.072 0.655 3.834 0.079 -0.021 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.000 0.104 1.054 6.271 0.116 -0.116 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.075 1.163 5.374 0.080 -0.021 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.086 1.608 12.279 0.087 -0.057 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.065 0.369 3.280 0.074 -0.064 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.069 1.426 7.567 0.067 0.021 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.074 0.504 4.322 0.072 0.006 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.091 0.684 3.864 0.097 -0.004 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.111 1.781 10.610 0.110 0.000 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.100 0.618 4.176 0.110 -0.045 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.092 0.880 4.795 0.093 -0.039 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.100 1.305 7.820 0.109 -0.075 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.101 0.714 4.077 0.110 -0.026 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.082 1.364 7.208 0.082 -0.012 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.088 0.640 3.866 0.099 -0.046 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.078 0.486 2.973 0.087 -0.045 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.097 1.244 6.575 0.106 -0.042 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.081 0.200 3.167 0.090 -0.013 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.077 0.382 3.093 0.086 -0.012 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.082 0.569 3.996 0.092 0.024 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.098 0.055 3.125 0.112 -0.048 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.091 1.238 5.513 0.095 0.030 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.075 0.318 2.939 0.082 -0.013 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.084 1.140 5.626 0.082 0.008 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.078 0.595 3.308 0.083 0.008 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.086 0.742 4.821 0.093 -0.098 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.100 0.685 4.324 0.104 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.085 0.844 5.147 0.091 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.013 0.454 2.279 0.014 0.035 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.083 0.699 4.323 0.089 -0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.020 0.734 2.963 0.023 0.045 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.057 0.055 2.799 0.064 -0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.077 0.504 3.308 0.081 -0.045 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.097 1.238 6.271 0.104 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.111 1.781 12.279 0.116 0.030 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.426 0.103 0.005 0.146 3.444 0.114 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.114 SERIES 031432 AND 031532 105 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 031411 AND 031412 161 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.211 0.156 0.334 0.444 0.631 0.606 0.406 0.462 0.464 0.429 SDEV 0.208 0.285 0.249 0.227 0.152 0.117 0.143 0.140 0.155 0.153 SERR 0.085 0.090 0.042 0.038 0.023 0.014 0.015 0.013 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.614 0.600 0.826 0.894 0.953 0.956 0.921 0.952 0.961 0.957 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.416 0.419 0.467 SDEV 0.168 0.145 0.133 SERR 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.953 0.952 0.959 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.996 0.060 0.548 3.810 0.074 -0.228 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.316 0.133 -0.075 130 252 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.72 1.00 1.08 1.80 8.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.227 -0.060 0.019 0.029 0.062 -0.077 0.060 -0.055 -0.005 0.130 PACF -0.227 -0.118 -0.025 0.022 0.081 -0.040 0.046 -0.046 -0.027 0.121 95% C.L. 0.102 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.110 0.110 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.067 -0.258 -0.119 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.029 -0.116 0.011 0.052 0.056 -0.057 0.032 -0.051 0.011 0.106 PACF -0.029 -0.117 0.004 0.040 0.062 -0.043 0.042 -0.065 0.012 0.096 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 -0.030 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.995 0.059 0.715 3.974 0.062 0.088 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.088 -0.101 0.004 0.059 0.057 -0.046 0.018 -0.046 0.016 0.094 PACF 0.088 -0.110 0.024 0.046 0.050 -0.046 0.038 -0.067 0.030 0.081 95% C.L. 0.102 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 0.099 -0.111 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.39 MINUTES