RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 031 1 Tyn hill (Altai) WIDTH_LATE PISY - 031 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 650 5414-8935 1613 1994 - 031 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 031432 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1939 1943 / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 031441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 39 IN 3 GAPS / 1749 1776 / 1830 1834 / 1865 1870 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 031442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1815 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 031471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 58 IN 2 GAPS / 1771 1823 / 1880 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 031472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1675 1679 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 031481 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1843 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 031482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 3 GAPS / 1821 1826 / 1839 1880 / 1893 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 031491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 3 GAPS / 1876 1877 / 1896 1901 / 1948 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 031501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 2 GAPS / 1686 1690 / 1900 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 031502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 031521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 031551 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1778 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.171 0.228 6.473 53.182 0.436 0.521 2 031412 1830 1994 165 0.186 0.182 4.030 27.012 0.546 0.553 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.198 0.110 1.422 5.954 0.484 0.268 4 031422 1837 1994 158 0.227 0.147 1.359 4.547 0.461 0.504 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.208 0.273 2.719 10.379 0.494 0.679 6 031432 1788 1963 176 0.141 0.186 4.059 19.359 0.382 0.726 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.111 0.136 2.888 12.115 0.372 0.645 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.070 0.031 1.578 7.465 0.288 0.641 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.156 0.084 0.994 3.254 0.387 0.519 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.178 0.093 1.250 4.432 0.393 0.477 11 031461 1852 1994 143 0.250 0.145 0.773 2.842 0.511 0.359 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.388 0.254 0.982 3.670 0.492 0.509 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.057 0.030 1.887 6.923 0.304 0.568 14 031472 1634 1994 361 0.053 0.042 4.376 25.209 0.294 0.770 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.130 0.103 2.280 9.713 0.396 0.683 16 031482 1671 1994 324 0.102 0.104 3.479 16.751 0.315 0.760 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.126 0.110 1.940 6.975 0.338 0.759 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.107 0.084 2.447 10.329 0.359 0.712 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.060 0.026 1.827 9.051 0.377 0.239 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.096 0.077 4.179 30.850 0.394 0.620 21 031511 1844 1994 151 0.232 0.136 1.473 6.285 0.443 0.323 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.248 0.198 1.291 3.835 0.422 0.628 23 031521 1798 1994 197 0.186 0.162 1.927 6.904 0.429 0.664 24 031522 1806 1994 189 0.254 0.292 2.361 8.428 0.430 0.660 25 031531 1839 1992 154 0.247 0.166 1.067 3.708 0.515 0.396 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.244 0.159 1.207 4.583 0.550 0.446 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.203 0.143 1.594 5.875 0.529 0.435 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.272 0.196 1.210 3.696 0.504 0.457 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.157 0.133 2.142 7.714 0.443 0.571 30 031552 1753 1994 242 0.206 0.246 2.490 8.720 0.543 0.642 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1613 TO 1994 382 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 207 0.175 0.143 2.257 10.992 0.428 0.558 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.077 0.071 1.301 10.772 0.078 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 0.182 0.140 1.907 7.220 0.430 0.570 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 117 0.121 0.093 1.428 5.832 0.117 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.053 0.026 0.773 2.842 0.288 0.239 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.111 0.093 1.291 4.547 0.377 0.457 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 271 0.232 0.186 2.719 10.379 0.494 0.664 MAXIMUM VALUE 356 0.388 0.292 6.473 53.182 0.550 0.770 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.291 0.204 0.010 0.000 2.686 -0.255 0.857 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.255 SERIES 031451 AND 031491 137 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.857 SERIES 031441 AND 031482 237 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.090 0.114 0.256 0.350 0.296 0.259 0.229 0.253 0.289 0.313 SDEV 0.266 0.252 0.269 0.217 0.162 0.208 0.229 0.248 0.216 0.214 SERR 0.109 0.080 0.045 0.036 0.024 0.026 0.024 0.023 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.370 0.510 0.765 0.850 0.834 0.831 0.835 0.886 0.921 0.930 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.316 0.356 0.321 SDEV 0.208 0.196 0.194 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.929 0.938 0.926 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.110 0.051 1.224 4.718 0.348 0.481 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.866 1.087 -0.040 237 145 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.96 6.77 1.00 1.49 8.25 260.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.26 0.00 0.74 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 182. 119. 122. 154. 273. 361. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.480 0.332 0.333 0.254 0.206 0.139 0.116 0.138 0.124 0.098 PACF 0.480 0.132 0.175 0.027 0.029 -0.038 0.008 0.057 0.030 0.003 95% C.L. 0.102 0.124 0.133 0.141 0.146 0.149 0.150 0.151 0.152 0.154 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.268 0.393 0.059 0.177 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 1 2.26079273 0.37619346 0.00000000 0.13993819 2 031412 1 0.56812531 0.11071873 0.00000000 0.15659162 3 031421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004729 0.20053110 4 031422 1 0.31793591 0.02285981 0.00000000 0.14254811 5 031431 1 0.63610101 0.01974977 0.00000000 0.05921619 6 031432 1 1.16480660 0.12459487 0.00000000 0.08835603 7 031441 1 0.44275600 0.02539523 0.00000000 0.03467461 8 031442 1 0.09488243 0.04005146 0.00000000 0.06183437 9 031451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115561 0.23616037 10 031452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053200 0.21543473 11 031461 1 0.20369868 0.05017493 0.00000000 0.22233802 12 031462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00205635 0.55690300 13 031471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005035 0.07189208 14 031472 1 0.17671026 0.04037265 0.00000000 0.04041513 15 031481 1 0.32658482 0.02230864 0.00000000 0.08196345 16 031482 1 0.46375754 0.03830853 0.00000000 0.05720775 17 031491 1 0.31517738 0.01296216 0.00000000 0.04361894 18 031492 1 0.19636166 0.01037157 0.00000000 0.04175083 19 031501 1 0.03254492 0.02999812 0.00000000 0.05530884 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017169 0.11812308 21 031511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122670 0.32521591 22 031512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00308455 0.47804192 23 031521 1 0.39486566 0.00901343 0.00000000 0.00108498 24 031522 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 031531 1 0.27824104 0.03352632 0.00000000 0.19465005 26 031532 1 0.35780811 0.07072531 0.00000000 0.20858872 27 031541 1 0.36284146 0.03689365 0.00000000 0.14031602 28 031542 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00222124 0.45037264 29 031551 1 0.38333890 0.02618841 0.00000000 0.09697520 30 031552 1 0.58171451 0.01816944 0.00000000 0.07701562 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.009 0.828 3.877 25.018 0.434 0.427 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.002 0.747 1.616 5.794 0.543 0.451 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.554 1.414 5.886 0.480 0.267 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.550 1.642 7.978 0.458 0.360 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.982 0.884 3.350 18.725 0.492 0.546 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.009 0.522 1.937 8.628 0.381 0.359 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.021 0.462 1.306 5.977 0.350 0.340 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.371 0.742 3.472 0.287 0.551 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.007 0.465 0.985 3.359 0.385 0.338 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.999 0.512 1.391 5.011 0.390 0.454 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.559 0.696 2.556 0.507 0.306 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.990 0.618 1.374 5.645 0.489 0.454 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.999 0.522 1.421 4.813 0.307 0.605 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.001 0.369 1.392 7.695 0.293 0.409 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.001 0.548 1.365 5.759 0.392 0.520 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.369 1.262 7.512 0.297 0.350 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.013 0.528 0.841 3.299 0.334 0.658 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.006 0.536 1.420 5.397 0.358 0.560 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.393 1.166 5.491 0.364 0.212 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.999 0.849 5.447 46.463 0.396 0.616 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.002 0.566 1.618 5.722 0.440 0.246 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.160 1.044 3.537 16.646 0.420 0.578 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.007 0.651 1.902 8.289 0.424 0.526 24 031522 1806 1994 189 0.992 0.700 1.550 5.587 0.428 0.534 25 031531 1839 1992 154 0.999 0.620 0.878 3.110 0.511 0.336 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.999 0.600 1.022 3.591 0.547 0.381 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.568 1.030 3.558 0.526 0.252 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.001 0.619 1.487 5.498 0.502 0.385 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.001 0.597 1.792 6.977 0.441 0.429 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.005 0.747 1.378 4.419 0.541 0.478 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.007 0.597 1.694 8.262 0.424 0.431 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.030 0.158 1.037 8.713 0.079 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.001 0.562 1.403 5.683 0.426 0.428 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.007 0.130 0.475 3.276 0.128 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.982 0.369 0.696 2.556 0.287 0.212 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.999 0.522 1.166 4.419 0.364 0.340 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.006 0.651 1.642 7.695 0.492 0.534 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.160 1.044 5.447 46.463 0.547 0.658 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 031412 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 031421 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 031422 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 031431 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 031432 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 031441 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 031442 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 031451 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 031452 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 031461 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 031462 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 031471 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 031472 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 031481 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 031482 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 031491 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 031492 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 031501 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 031511 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 031512 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 031521 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 031522 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 031531 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 031532 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 031541 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 031542 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 031551 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 031552 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.990 0.674 2.773 14.596 0.435 0.368 2 031412 1830 1994 165 0.990 0.718 1.567 5.547 0.543 0.418 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.994 0.529 1.284 5.522 0.480 0.231 4 031422 1837 1994 158 0.995 0.523 1.242 5.569 0.458 0.306 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.989 0.805 2.910 15.230 0.493 0.516 6 031432 1788 1963 176 0.998 0.483 1.624 7.295 0.381 0.310 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.995 0.398 1.594 8.409 0.350 0.181 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.994 0.335 0.458 3.020 0.287 0.439 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.991 0.414 0.753 2.731 0.385 0.262 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.993 0.455 0.989 3.991 0.390 0.340 11 031461 1852 1994 143 0.994 0.545 0.739 2.717 0.507 0.287 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.996 0.569 0.953 3.807 0.490 0.388 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.992 0.408 1.197 5.199 0.307 0.421 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.369 1.458 8.095 0.293 0.409 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.987 0.500 1.289 6.304 0.393 0.468 16 031482 1671 1994 324 0.999 0.347 0.843 5.126 0.297 0.302 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.987 0.431 1.273 5.665 0.334 0.485 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.985 0.451 1.374 5.523 0.358 0.445 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.999 0.389 1.152 5.394 0.364 0.203 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.986 0.760 5.084 42.304 0.396 0.590 21 031511 1844 1994 151 0.996 0.527 1.359 5.085 0.439 0.207 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.986 0.519 1.032 3.750 0.418 0.352 23 031521 1798 1994 197 0.993 0.628 2.062 9.195 0.424 0.505 24 031522 1806 1994 189 0.993 0.689 1.581 5.754 0.427 0.529 25 031531 1839 1992 154 0.992 0.603 0.908 3.175 0.511 0.312 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.993 0.547 0.842 3.518 0.546 0.268 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.994 0.524 0.837 3.127 0.526 0.145 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.992 0.586 1.300 4.680 0.502 0.318 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.993 0.569 1.690 6.549 0.441 0.389 30 031552 1753 1994 242 0.994 0.738 1.458 4.657 0.542 0.474 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.993 0.534 1.454 7.051 0.424 0.362 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.004 0.126 0.870 7.288 0.079 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 0.993 0.525 1.286 5.458 0.426 0.360 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.005 0.172 0.627 2.742 0.129 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.985 0.335 0.458 2.717 0.287 0.145 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.990 0.431 0.953 3.807 0.364 0.287 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 0.995 0.603 1.581 6.549 0.493 0.445 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.805 5.084 42.304 0.546 0.590 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.294 0.145 0.007 0.284 3.105 -0.098 0.755 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.098 SERIES 031441 AND 031461 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.755 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.110 0.129 0.141 0.329 0.322 0.267 0.252 0.243 0.289 0.293 SDEV 0.249 0.255 0.190 0.186 0.138 0.170 0.196 0.220 0.220 0.204 SERR 0.102 0.081 0.032 0.031 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.425 0.547 0.608 0.838 0.850 0.836 0.852 0.881 0.920 0.924 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.345 0.359 0.349 SDEV 0.190 0.178 0.181 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.937 0.939 0.934 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.952 0.296 0.570 3.428 0.287 0.334 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.555 0.349 0.012 144 238 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.29 1.00 1.14 2.43 16.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.333 0.203 0.148 0.084 0.068 0.000 -0.049 -0.029 -0.012 -0.006 PACF 0.333 0.103 0.061 0.004 0.020 -0.048 -0.058 0.001 0.015 0.008 95% C.L. 0.102 0.113 0.117 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.124 0.299 0.104 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.384 0.161 0.162 0.068 0.079 -0.019 -0.096 0.000 -0.004 0.036 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.384 2 0.378 0.016 3 0.376 -0.026 0.112 4 0.380 -0.027 0.126 -0.037 5 0.383 -0.035 0.127 -0.060 0.061 6 0.388 -0.041 0.139 -0.063 0.098 -0.097 7 0.381 -0.033 0.135 -0.053 0.095 -0.067 -0.076 8 0.386 -0.029 0.128 -0.049 0.086 -0.065 -0.101 0.065 9 0.386 -0.029 0.128 -0.049 0.086 -0.064 -0.101 0.067 -0.005 10 0.387 -0.034 0.135 -0.045 0.080 -0.061 -0.110 0.069 -0.031 0.067 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3622.87 3563.92 3565.82 3563.03 3564.51 3565.09 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3563.50 3563.26 3563.63 3565.62 3565.93 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.384 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.75 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 117.30 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.384 0.147 0.057 0.022 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 031411 1 0.142 0.368 2 031412 1 0.177 0.420 3 031421 1 0.054 0.232 4 031422 1 0.095 0.308 5 031431 1 0.267 0.517 6 031432 1 0.102 0.310 7 031441 1 0.035 0.182 8 031442 1 0.242 0.442 9 031451 1 0.071 0.264 10 031452 1 0.163 0.340 11 031461 1 0.093 0.288 12 031462 1 0.155 0.389 13 031471 1 0.186 0.421 14 031472 1 0.185 0.409 15 031481 1 0.242 0.470 16 031482 1 0.116 0.302 17 031491 1 0.277 0.486 18 031492 1 0.225 0.446 19 031501 1 0.079 0.203 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 031502 1 0.356 0.590 21 031511 1 0.045 0.208 22 031512 1 0.149 0.354 23 031521 1 0.258 0.506 24 031522 1 0.282 0.531 25 031531 1 0.101 0.313 26 031532 1 0.073 0.268 27 031541 1 0.025 0.146 28 031542 1 0.102 0.320 29 031551 1 0.152 0.390 30 031552 1 0.238 0.474 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.156 0.363 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.086 0.113 MEDIAN 1 0.151 0.361 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.144 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.025 0.146 LOWER HINGE 1 0.093 0.288 UPPER HINGE 1 0.238 0.446 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.356 0.590 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.001 0.625 3.004 19.096 0.557 0.035 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.001 0.650 1.512 5.561 0.641 -0.014 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.514 1.475 5.955 0.503 0.001 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.498 1.197 5.840 0.534 -0.006 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.011 0.663 2.809 17.433 0.608 0.042 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.459 1.413 7.396 0.457 -0.024 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.391 1.586 8.127 0.375 0.007 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.301 0.263 3.192 0.364 -0.105 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.399 0.810 2.755 0.424 -0.012 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.428 0.674 3.599 0.472 -0.078 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.522 0.697 2.896 0.576 -0.030 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.524 0.864 3.970 0.581 -0.027 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.370 1.246 6.050 0.383 -0.043 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.337 1.002 6.745 0.376 -0.058 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.001 0.437 1.087 5.622 0.483 -0.062 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.330 0.945 6.359 0.348 -0.049 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.377 1.071 5.342 0.420 -0.113 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.404 0.947 5.184 0.452 -0.080 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.381 1.170 5.645 0.404 -0.040 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.009 0.590 4.107 34.745 0.521 0.066 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.515 1.356 5.393 0.475 0.009 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.485 1.204 4.607 0.489 -0.057 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.002 0.538 1.572 7.480 0.533 0.030 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.008 0.565 1.402 5.213 0.530 0.022 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.573 0.962 3.340 0.563 0.016 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.527 0.775 3.053 0.583 0.007 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.518 0.716 2.870 0.565 0.008 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.555 0.987 3.985 0.597 -0.001 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.001 0.521 1.492 7.245 0.553 0.010 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.008 0.635 1.139 4.261 0.651 -0.035 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.001 0.488 1.316 6.965 0.501 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.003 0.099 0.764 6.396 0.086 0.043 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.515 1.155 5.477 0.512 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.001 0.155 0.530 2.775 0.140 0.058 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.301 0.263 2.755 0.348 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.399 0.945 3.970 0.424 -0.049 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.001 0.555 1.475 6.745 0.565 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.011 0.663 4.107 34.745 0.651 0.066 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.294 0.132 0.006 0.472 3.177 -0.022 0.764 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.022 SERIES 031441 AND 031461 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.764 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.087 0.132 0.195 0.302 0.326 0.339 0.236 0.241 0.300 0.306 SDEV 0.201 0.177 0.180 0.184 0.120 0.129 0.176 0.189 0.203 0.177 SERR 0.082 0.056 0.030 0.031 0.018 0.016 0.018 0.017 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.363 0.553 0.696 0.820 0.853 0.878 0.841 0.879 0.924 0.928 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.323 0.322 0.324 SDEV 0.168 0.166 0.164 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.931 0.929 0.927 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.971 0.277 0.473 3.277 0.326 -0.044 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.430 0.275 0.050 153 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.03 1.00 1.11 2.14 18.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.044 0.062 0.055 0.010 0.048 -0.018 -0.057 -0.021 -0.001 -0.027 PACF -0.044 0.060 0.061 0.011 0.042 -0.019 -0.066 -0.030 0.005 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.063 0.059 0.015 0.048 -0.018 -0.059 -0.024 -0.003 -0.025 PACF 0.003 0.063 0.059 0.011 0.041 -0.023 -0.067 -0.027 0.006 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.004 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.971 0.304 0.550 3.471 0.271 0.416 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.414 0.232 0.146 0.077 0.054 -0.016 -0.064 -0.047 -0.026 -0.023 PACF 0.414 0.073 0.032 -0.007 0.013 -0.060 -0.057 0.004 0.014 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.102 0.119 0.123 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.177 0.384 0.074 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.39 MINUTES