RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 031 1 Tyn hill (Altai) DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 031 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 650 5414-8935 1613 1994 - 031 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 031431 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1827 1831 / 1921 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 031432 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 031441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 3 GAPS / 1749 1776 / 1850 1850 / 1901 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 031442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1896 1896 / 1910 1910 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 031471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 031472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1792 1792 / 1840 1840 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 031481 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1840 1840 / 1850 1850 / 1901 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 031482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 45 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1839 1880 / 1901 1901 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 031491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1876 1877 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 031501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 3 GAPS / 1715 1715 / 1772 1772 / 1900 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 031502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1715 1715 / 1842 1842 / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 031521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 031542 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 031551 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1778 1778 / 1850 1850 / 1902 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 031552 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.287 0.027 1.622 8.417 0.084 0.169 2 031412 1830 1994 165 0.273 0.030 1.789 9.101 0.087 0.302 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.269 0.023 0.188 3.069 0.076 0.393 4 031422 1837 1994 158 0.258 0.027 0.637 4.221 0.088 0.392 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.263 0.045 1.374 6.573 0.110 0.577 6 031432 1788 1963 176 0.262 0.027 0.729 3.803 0.086 0.419 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.294 0.038 1.301 7.572 0.082 0.534 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.256 0.028 0.296 2.752 0.076 0.608 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.244 0.030 0.562 2.781 0.080 0.588 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.248 0.028 0.576 3.641 0.085 0.511 11 031461 1852 1994 143 0.235 0.028 0.344 2.692 0.116 0.197 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.250 0.035 1.642 10.209 0.132 0.174 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.251 0.044 0.773 3.574 0.117 0.638 14 031472 1634 1994 361 0.228 0.031 0.722 4.662 0.120 0.219 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.244 0.037 1.740 10.472 0.104 0.414 16 031482 1671 1994 324 0.210 0.030 0.780 5.362 0.131 0.256 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.277 0.043 0.419 3.166 0.094 0.584 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.253 0.048 0.703 2.899 0.100 0.764 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.250 0.034 0.795 4.387 0.105 0.452 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.278 0.038 0.848 4.116 0.116 0.377 21 031511 1844 1994 151 0.218 0.026 0.315 3.523 0.097 0.434 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.216 0.034 -0.227 2.838 0.111 0.581 23 031521 1798 1994 197 0.270 0.029 0.351 3.012 0.089 0.466 24 031522 1806 1994 189 0.253 0.036 0.110 2.696 0.106 0.581 25 031531 1839 1992 154 0.219 0.027 0.209 3.461 0.108 0.350 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.244 0.027 0.089 2.806 0.104 0.331 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.245 0.038 0.249 2.642 0.097 0.675 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.262 0.033 0.110 3.307 0.105 0.429 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.272 0.042 0.824 3.693 0.100 0.641 30 031552 1753 1994 242 0.222 0.036 1.315 6.532 0.127 0.393 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1613 TO 1994 382 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 0.252 0.033 0.706 4.599 0.101 0.448 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.022 0.006 0.544 2.347 0.016 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 0.252 0.032 0.670 3.607 0.102 0.431 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.025 0.010 0.552 2.464 0.024 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.210 0.023 -0.227 2.642 0.076 0.169 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.244 0.028 0.296 2.899 0.087 0.350 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 0.269 0.038 0.848 5.362 0.111 0.581 MAXIMUM VALUE 357 0.294 0.048 1.789 10.472 0.132 0.764 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.406 0.150 0.007 -0.745 4.143 -0.180 0.731 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.180 SERIES 031492 AND 031501 226 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.731 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.176 0.076 0.306 0.369 0.574 0.536 0.277 0.375 0.407 0.330 SDEV 0.267 0.339 0.206 0.216 0.156 0.149 0.241 0.192 0.180 0.188 SERR 0.109 0.107 0.034 0.036 0.023 0.018 0.025 0.018 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.560 0.399 0.807 0.861 0.941 0.942 0.868 0.932 0.951 0.935 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.384 0.360 0.476 SDEV 0.209 0.152 0.135 SERR 0.011 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.946 0.939 0.960 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.257 0.026 1.201 6.813 0.079 0.380 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.020 -0.010 0.037 79 303 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.67 1.00 1.06 1.73 91.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 182. 119. 122. 154. 273. 361. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.385 0.407 0.338 0.338 0.249 0.339 0.219 0.269 0.305 PACF 0.379 0.282 0.248 0.106 0.099 -0.028 0.138 -0.047 0.075 0.100 95% C.L. 0.102 0.116 0.129 0.142 0.150 0.158 0.162 0.169 0.172 0.176 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.299 0.145 0.170 0.209 0.118 0.113 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008100 0.29333153 2 031412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022750 0.29227641 3 031421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028587 0.28684324 4 031422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022180 0.27560753 5 031431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021412 0.28400755 6 031432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015708 0.27583826 7 031441 1 0.07844136 0.00476479 0.00000000 0.24769901 8 031442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013387 0.27752152 9 031451 1 0.08966345 0.01211349 0.00000000 0.20038620 10 031452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031289 0.27013052 11 031461 1 0.01580557 0.02273438 0.00000000 0.23076430 12 031462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013184 0.26111794 13 031471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018475 0.29228085 14 031472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004613 0.23711075 15 031481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000877 0.24669801 16 031482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000067 0.21080515 17 031491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026390 0.31699491 18 031492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041861 0.31035256 19 031501 1 0.07595768 0.03724242 0.00000000 0.24626474 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 1 0.04612772 0.07968849 0.00000000 0.27640676 21 031511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032994 0.24269138 22 031512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052642 0.25482625 23 031521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015049 0.28472242 24 031522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028538 0.28054991 25 031531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024706 0.23849757 26 031532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009682 0.25082353 27 031541 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062372 0.29294881 28 031542 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045044 0.29627538 29 031551 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000529 0.27321535 30 031552 1 0.06833881 0.02115059 0.00000000 0.20904228 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.092 1.486 7.597 0.083 0.145 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.099 1.637 7.971 0.087 0.184 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.078 0.350 3.547 0.075 0.242 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.096 0.717 4.370 0.088 0.298 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.000 0.161 1.670 8.369 0.108 0.528 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.098 0.833 4.135 0.087 0.347 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.114 2.054 14.386 0.086 0.370 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.099 0.682 3.207 0.076 0.503 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.090 1.242 6.090 0.079 0.225 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.101 0.457 3.104 0.084 0.382 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.119 0.344 2.730 0.115 0.180 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.137 1.478 8.888 0.131 0.151 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.167 0.683 3.112 0.117 0.571 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.137 0.859 4.747 0.122 0.194 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.153 1.706 9.768 0.108 0.453 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.147 0.872 5.303 0.133 0.243 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.133 1.014 5.522 0.097 0.395 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.131 0.522 3.195 0.099 0.498 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.124 0.467 3.129 0.105 0.400 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.135 0.932 4.469 0.116 0.354 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.100 0.252 3.001 0.097 0.165 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.116 -0.134 3.233 0.111 0.289 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.102 0.486 3.106 0.089 0.399 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.131 0.288 2.682 0.105 0.463 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.111 0.340 3.277 0.108 0.237 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.109 0.006 2.746 0.103 0.315 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.103 0.914 5.129 0.096 0.294 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.102 0.273 2.856 0.104 0.202 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.154 0.818 3.664 0.099 0.643 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.141 0.721 3.888 0.126 0.268 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.119 0.799 4.907 0.101 0.331 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.023 0.541 2.703 0.016 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.115 0.719 3.776 0.101 0.306 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.037 0.664 2.410 0.023 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.078 -0.134 2.682 0.075 0.145 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.100 0.350 3.112 0.087 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.137 1.014 5.522 0.111 0.400 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.167 2.054 14.386 0.133 0.643 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 031412 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 031421 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 031422 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 031431 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 031432 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 031441 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 031442 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 031451 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 031452 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 031461 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 031462 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 031471 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 031472 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 031481 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 031482 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 031491 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 031492 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 031501 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 031511 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 031512 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 031521 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 031522 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 031531 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 031532 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 031541 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 031542 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 031551 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 031552 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.090 1.647 8.723 0.083 0.100 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.098 1.657 8.173 0.087 0.164 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.068 0.686 3.865 0.075 -0.016 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.090 0.496 3.836 0.088 0.196 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.999 0.137 1.300 6.830 0.109 0.378 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.094 0.848 4.165 0.087 0.289 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.110 2.008 13.937 0.086 0.329 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.087 0.387 2.781 0.076 0.366 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.089 1.354 6.852 0.079 0.196 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.999 0.091 0.402 3.263 0.084 0.253 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.117 0.429 2.980 0.115 0.153 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.132 1.739 10.758 0.131 0.080 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.999 0.134 0.529 3.919 0.117 0.338 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.130 1.007 5.324 0.122 0.104 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.999 0.139 1.490 8.935 0.108 0.342 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.142 0.814 4.913 0.133 0.200 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.999 0.106 1.263 7.506 0.097 0.103 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.999 0.121 0.581 3.438 0.099 0.418 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.999 0.107 0.449 3.339 0.105 0.195 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.999 0.123 1.238 6.154 0.116 0.220 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.099 0.287 3.056 0.097 0.154 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.103 -0.189 3.945 0.111 0.071 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.087 0.509 3.136 0.089 0.164 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.122 0.260 3.042 0.105 0.388 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.107 0.406 3.036 0.108 0.167 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.103 0.051 2.857 0.103 0.226 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.098 0.714 4.360 0.096 0.219 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.096 0.343 2.974 0.104 0.098 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.999 0.133 0.662 3.669 0.099 0.524 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.138 0.702 4.029 0.126 0.232 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.110 0.802 5.126 0.101 0.222 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.020 0.547 2.729 0.016 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.107 0.674 3.932 0.101 0.198 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.036 0.857 3.694 0.023 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.999 0.068 -0.189 2.781 0.075 -0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.999 0.094 0.406 3.136 0.087 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.130 1.263 6.830 0.111 0.329 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.142 2.008 13.937 0.133 0.524 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.368 0.107 0.005 -0.176 3.532 0.019 0.711 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.019 SERIES 031431 AND 031481 211 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.711 SERIES 031461 AND 031462 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.153 0.093 0.305 0.394 0.572 0.548 0.299 0.394 0.413 0.357 SDEV 0.277 0.299 0.214 0.208 0.156 0.139 0.201 0.170 0.162 0.184 SERR 0.113 0.095 0.036 0.035 0.023 0.017 0.021 0.016 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.518 0.455 0.806 0.873 0.941 0.945 0.879 0.937 0.953 0.942 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.349 0.393 0.445 SDEV 0.202 0.135 0.135 SERR 0.010 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.938 0.947 0.955 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.994 0.075 0.833 4.494 0.080 0.034 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.318 0.145 -0.065 148 234 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.68 1.00 1.09 1.77 17.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.034 0.018 0.039 0.063 0.017 -0.067 0.051 -0.038 0.004 0.061 PACF 0.034 0.016 0.038 0.060 0.012 -0.071 0.050 -0.044 0.009 0.068 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.087 -0.014 0.045 0.118 -0.023 -0.017 0.016 -0.013 0.021 0.062 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.087 2 0.089 -0.021 3 0.090 -0.026 0.048 4 0.085 -0.023 0.038 0.111 5 0.090 -0.021 0.037 0.114 -0.042 6 0.089 -0.020 0.037 0.114 -0.041 -0.009 7 0.089 -0.020 0.036 0.114 -0.041 -0.010 0.008 8 0.089 -0.020 0.035 0.117 -0.040 -0.010 0.010 -0.027 9 0.090 -0.020 0.036 0.118 -0.044 -0.011 0.011 -0.030 0.034 10 0.088 -0.019 0.035 0.119 -0.041 -0.018 0.009 -0.028 0.029 0.059 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2522.05 2521.13 2522.95 2524.07 2521.38 2522.70 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2524.67 2526.65 2528.38 2529.93 2530.60 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.087 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 0.76 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 100.77 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.087 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 031411 1 0.011 0.103 2 031412 1 0.056 0.165 3 031421 1 0.001 -0.016 4 031422 1 0.041 0.201 5 031431 1 0.219 0.381 6 031432 1 0.107 0.289 7 031441 1 0.121 0.330 8 031442 1 0.157 0.370 9 031451 1 0.040 0.196 10 031452 1 0.067 0.259 11 031461 1 0.024 0.153 12 031462 1 0.007 0.080 13 031471 1 0.124 0.342 14 031472 1 0.032 0.106 15 031481 1 0.171 0.346 16 031482 1 0.052 0.202 17 031491 1 0.035 0.104 18 031492 1 0.195 0.421 19 031501 1 0.065 0.196 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 031502 1 0.063 0.221 21 031511 1 0.025 0.156 22 031512 1 0.012 0.072 23 031521 1 0.031 0.166 24 031522 1 0.174 0.389 25 031531 1 0.037 0.167 26 031532 1 0.052 0.226 27 031541 1 0.048 0.219 28 031542 1 0.010 0.098 29 031551 1 0.310 0.525 30 031552 1 0.062 0.233 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.078 0.223 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.074 0.122 MEDIAN 1 0.052 0.201 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.090 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.001 -0.016 LOWER HINGE 1 0.031 0.153 UPPER HINGE 1 0.121 0.330 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.310 0.525 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.090 1.612 8.392 0.088 0.004 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.097 1.631 8.225 0.096 -0.027 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.068 0.682 3.892 0.075 0.000 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.088 0.392 3.500 0.098 -0.010 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.000 0.127 1.279 7.962 0.136 -0.114 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.090 0.624 3.742 0.102 -0.046 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.104 2.009 14.887 0.102 -0.037 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.081 0.362 2.929 0.093 -0.053 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.087 1.532 8.173 0.086 0.009 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.088 0.442 3.581 0.096 -0.004 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.116 0.413 3.051 0.123 -0.003 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.131 1.784 11.063 0.137 -0.002 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.126 0.578 4.262 0.138 -0.026 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.130 1.064 5.529 0.129 -0.013 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.130 1.855 12.286 0.129 -0.078 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.139 0.842 5.259 0.146 -0.020 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.106 1.347 8.066 0.103 -0.015 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.110 0.528 3.888 0.125 -0.063 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.105 0.441 3.199 0.118 -0.032 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.120 1.132 5.970 0.132 -0.027 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.098 0.235 3.092 0.107 -0.001 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.103 -0.168 4.007 0.115 -0.005 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.086 0.443 3.204 0.096 0.012 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.112 0.243 3.515 0.128 -0.063 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.105 0.442 3.107 0.115 0.016 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.101 0.145 2.900 0.114 -0.005 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.095 0.670 3.983 0.105 0.000 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.095 0.322 2.919 0.109 0.000 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.113 0.715 4.349 0.129 -0.113 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.134 0.753 4.707 0.140 -0.021 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.106 0.812 5.455 0.114 -0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.018 0.575 3.090 0.019 0.034 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.104 0.647 3.995 0.115 -0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.030 0.866 4.758 0.031 0.036 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.068 -0.168 2.900 0.075 -0.114 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.090 0.413 3.204 0.098 -0.037 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.120 1.279 7.962 0.129 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.139 2.009 14.887 0.146 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.401 0.096 0.005 0.158 3.229 0.128 0.720 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.128 SERIES 031422 AND 031502 59 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.720 SERIES 031461 AND 031462 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.174 0.148 0.329 0.444 0.613 0.589 0.368 0.458 0.458 0.391 SDEV 0.269 0.307 0.224 0.221 0.142 0.127 0.148 0.127 0.139 0.162 SERR 0.110 0.097 0.037 0.037 0.021 0.016 0.015 0.012 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.556 0.585 0.823 0.894 0.950 0.953 0.908 0.951 0.960 0.949 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.351 0.395 0.459 SDEV 0.188 0.128 0.125 SERR 0.010 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.939 0.947 0.957 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.995 0.076 0.774 4.646 0.090 -0.200 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.306 0.131 -0.058 137 245 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.69 1.00 1.11 1.80 11.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.200 -0.007 0.029 0.035 0.007 -0.074 0.075 -0.050 -0.001 0.098 PACF -0.200 -0.049 0.019 0.046 0.026 -0.070 0.046 -0.033 -0.012 0.100 95% C.L. 0.102 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.043 -0.201 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 -0.042 0.035 0.047 -0.001 -0.064 0.054 -0.041 0.008 0.082 PACF -0.011 -0.042 0.034 0.046 0.003 -0.062 0.050 -0.047 0.016 0.082 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.995 0.075 0.865 4.599 0.078 0.072 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.072 -0.032 0.035 0.049 -0.002 -0.060 0.045 -0.036 0.011 0.076 PACF 0.072 -0.037 0.040 0.043 -0.006 -0.058 0.050 -0.050 0.026 0.073 95% C.L. 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.50 MINUTES