RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 031 1 Tyn hill (Altai) DENSITY_LATE PISY - 031 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 650 5414-8935 1613 1994 - 031 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 031432 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 031441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 3 GAPS / 1749 1776 / 1850 1850 / 1901 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 031442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1896 1896 / 1910 1910 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 031471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 031472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1792 1792 / 1840 1840 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 031481 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1840 1840 / 1850 1850 / 1901 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 031482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 45 IN 4 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1839 1880 / 1901 1901 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 031491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1876 1877 / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 031501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 3 GAPS / 1715 1715 / 1772 1772 / 1900 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 031502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1715 1715 / 1842 1842 / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 031521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 031551 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1778 1778 / 1850 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 031552 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 7.038 1.085 -0.965 3.029 0.120 0.561 2 031412 1830 1994 165 7.242 0.822 -1.058 3.760 0.094 0.401 3 031421 1873 1994 122 6.349 0.724 -0.602 3.414 0.090 0.521 4 031422 1837 1994 158 6.341 0.759 0.034 2.490 0.082 0.625 5 031431 1784 1994 211 6.159 1.086 -0.739 2.995 0.130 0.620 6 031432 1788 1963 176 5.715 1.121 0.000 1.972 0.114 0.752 7 031441 1653 1907 255 5.788 1.148 -0.197 1.844 0.109 0.753 8 031442 1678 1994 317 5.165 0.985 0.353 2.553 0.129 0.642 9 031451 1858 1994 137 6.201 1.098 -0.644 2.610 0.114 0.687 10 031452 1855 1994 140 6.495 1.109 -1.233 4.130 0.119 0.673 11 031461 1852 1994 143 6.532 0.805 -0.781 3.256 0.108 0.344 12 031462 1832 1994 163 6.403 0.887 -0.871 3.977 0.103 0.545 13 031471 1644 1994 351 5.424 1.039 0.390 2.794 0.133 0.601 14 031472 1634 1994 361 5.179 0.938 0.418 2.790 0.120 0.668 15 031481 1680 1994 315 6.234 0.821 -0.623 4.038 0.112 0.439 16 031482 1671 1994 324 5.532 1.115 0.108 2.145 0.128 0.716 17 031491 1695 1994 300 6.055 1.303 -0.194 1.966 0.094 0.845 18 031492 1722 1994 273 5.905 0.882 -0.366 2.126 0.090 0.712 19 031501 1613 1947 335 5.463 1.017 0.086 2.565 0.139 0.573 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 6.630 0.932 -0.445 2.619 0.109 0.541 21 031511 1844 1994 151 7.045 0.778 -1.435 5.503 0.089 0.498 22 031512 1847 1994 148 6.431 1.328 -1.024 2.876 0.097 0.831 23 031521 1798 1994 197 7.064 1.021 -1.030 3.581 0.109 0.499 24 031522 1806 1994 189 6.834 1.155 -1.139 3.695 0.124 0.577 25 031531 1839 1992 154 6.014 0.811 -0.766 3.235 0.112 0.512 26 031532 1859 1994 136 6.531 0.842 -1.035 4.449 0.120 0.339 27 031541 1841 1994 154 6.162 1.051 -0.829 2.882 0.092 0.780 28 031542 1835 1994 160 6.353 1.024 -1.030 3.771 0.090 0.774 29 031551 1757 1994 238 6.152 0.772 -0.487 3.399 0.102 0.506 30 031552 1753 1994 242 5.752 0.742 -0.576 3.038 0.102 0.530 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1613 TO 1994 382 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 6.206 0.973 -0.556 3.117 0.109 0.602 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.550 0.165 0.515 0.825 0.015 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 6.218 1.001 -0.633 3.012 0.109 0.589 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.743 0.277 0.830 1.130 0.025 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 122 5.165 0.724 -1.435 1.844 0.082 0.339 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 5.788 0.821 -1.024 2.565 0.094 0.512 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 6.531 1.098 -0.194 3.695 0.120 0.712 MAXIMUM VALUE 357 7.242 1.328 0.418 5.503 0.139 0.845 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.302 0.204 0.010 -0.088 2.890 -0.278 0.886 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.278 SERIES 031441 AND 031452 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.886 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.157 0.198 0.189 0.245 0.351 0.284 0.235 0.264 0.270 0.276 SDEV 0.327 0.183 0.372 0.270 0.156 0.207 0.238 0.213 0.226 0.191 SERR 0.133 0.058 0.062 0.045 0.023 0.025 0.025 0.019 0.014 0.010 EPS 0.527 0.667 0.688 0.775 0.866 0.848 0.840 0.891 0.913 0.918 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.237 0.335 0.327 SDEV 0.187 0.230 0.216 SERR 0.010 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.898 0.933 0.928 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 6.158 0.561 -0.426 3.867 0.071 0.498 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.282 -0.184 2.105 29 353 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.73 1.01 1.09 1.82 12.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 182. 119. 122. 154. 273. 361. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.496 0.415 0.408 0.335 0.291 0.232 0.273 0.238 0.273 0.255 PACF 0.496 0.224 0.192 0.055 0.033 -0.019 0.107 0.026 0.110 0.029 95% C.L. 0.102 0.125 0.139 0.151 0.158 0.164 0.167 0.172 0.175 0.180 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.314 0.342 0.148 0.195 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00727847 7.62756824 2 031412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00287110 7.00381947 3 031421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00579233 6.70508051 4 031422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00932993 7.08318472 5 031431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00988650 7.20725822 6 031432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01804581 7.30293274 7 031441 1 3.09388781 0.00736238 0.00000000 4.33135223 8 031442 1 2.16641212 0.01767376 0.00000000 4.76716661 9 031451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01888196 7.50365829 10 031452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01033201 7.22376347 11 031461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00172859 6.40714979 12 031462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106190 6.48995924 13 031471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00239807 5.95346737 14 031472 1 2.90248036 0.03211436 0.00000000 4.92128611 15 031481 1 0.43505576 0.01075232 0.00000000 6.09270668 16 031482 1 3.28671670 0.00735718 0.00000000 4.20080280 17 031491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01187906 7.83282375 18 031492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00682707 6.83985090 19 031501 1 1.85224116 0.01412300 0.00000000 5.00570965 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00409078 7.14203310 21 031511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00618498 7.51489305 22 031512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02115347 8.00681210 23 031521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00831642 7.86960173 24 031522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00615299 7.41839647 25 031531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00837947 6.66317558 26 031532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00205980 6.67205238 27 031541 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01721097 7.49540854 28 031542 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01257014 7.36477137 29 031551 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00511467 6.75666428 30 031552 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00575357 6.43768215 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.148 -0.834 2.993 0.119 0.508 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.112 -1.076 3.854 0.094 0.386 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.110 -0.581 3.273 0.089 0.493 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.098 -0.123 3.111 0.081 0.419 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.999 0.153 -0.122 3.061 0.130 0.470 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.114 0.046 2.961 0.114 0.250 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.157 0.411 3.022 0.107 0.588 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.170 0.444 3.218 0.130 0.531 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.134 -0.761 3.195 0.113 0.392 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.163 -0.896 3.504 0.118 0.608 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.123 -0.772 3.332 0.107 0.341 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.139 -0.817 3.827 0.103 0.540 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.182 0.275 2.683 0.136 0.536 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.152 0.254 3.096 0.120 0.503 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.134 -0.444 3.814 0.114 0.439 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.134 0.089 3.450 0.127 0.269 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.999 0.136 -0.159 2.403 0.095 0.555 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.121 -0.258 3.172 0.090 0.547 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.174 -0.005 2.630 0.140 0.497 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.134 -0.378 2.926 0.109 0.479 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.106 -1.162 4.818 0.088 0.430 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.998 0.162 -0.389 2.990 0.096 0.705 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.133 -0.861 3.654 0.109 0.379 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.166 -0.845 3.292 0.123 0.531 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.121 -0.659 3.102 0.112 0.357 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.128 -1.073 4.399 0.119 0.329 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.999 0.123 -0.269 3.438 0.091 0.570 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.999 0.137 -0.665 3.957 0.089 0.667 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.114 -0.367 3.621 0.102 0.382 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.114 -0.121 3.194 0.103 0.382 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.136 -0.404 3.333 0.109 0.469 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.022 0.460 0.507 0.016 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.134 -0.383 3.206 0.109 0.486 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.032 0.696 0.600 0.024 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.998 0.098 -1.162 2.403 0.081 0.250 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.121 -0.817 3.022 0.095 0.382 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.153 -0.121 3.621 0.119 0.540 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.182 0.444 4.818 0.140 0.705 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 031412 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 031421 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 031422 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 031431 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 031432 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 031441 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 031442 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 031451 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 031452 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 031461 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 031462 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 031471 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 031472 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 031481 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 031482 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 031491 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 031492 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 031501 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 031511 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 031512 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 031521 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 031522 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 031531 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 031532 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 031541 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 031542 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 031551 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 031552 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.999 0.134 -0.890 3.355 0.119 0.373 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.106 -1.113 4.016 0.094 0.312 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.999 0.095 -0.490 3.785 0.089 0.293 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.083 -0.073 3.546 0.081 0.219 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.999 0.133 -0.138 3.444 0.130 0.291 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.113 0.031 3.044 0.114 0.233 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.998 0.139 0.232 2.774 0.107 0.485 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.999 0.157 0.274 2.989 0.130 0.461 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.999 0.118 -0.968 3.504 0.112 0.212 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.998 0.136 -0.888 4.504 0.117 0.389 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.117 -0.831 3.532 0.107 0.277 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.999 0.125 -0.700 4.064 0.103 0.414 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.999 0.169 0.120 2.746 0.136 0.467 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.143 0.290 3.166 0.120 0.436 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.131 -0.492 3.933 0.114 0.417 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.132 0.076 3.320 0.127 0.249 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.999 0.124 0.016 2.768 0.095 0.454 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.117 -0.229 3.170 0.090 0.507 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.999 0.169 0.011 2.691 0.140 0.467 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.128 -0.429 3.224 0.109 0.432 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.101 -0.875 4.864 0.088 0.358 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.998 0.124 -0.368 4.040 0.096 0.450 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.128 -0.918 4.113 0.109 0.320 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.161 -0.857 3.482 0.123 0.499 25 031531 1839 1992 154 0.999 0.111 -0.643 3.704 0.112 0.209 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.124 -1.061 4.542 0.119 0.288 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.999 0.098 -0.657 3.947 0.091 0.328 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.999 0.112 -0.596 5.168 0.089 0.502 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.111 -0.407 3.620 0.102 0.350 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.108 -0.147 3.094 0.103 0.317 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.999 0.125 -0.424 3.605 0.109 0.367 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.021 0.436 0.629 0.016 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.124 -0.460 3.518 0.109 0.365 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.023 0.868 0.850 0.024 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.998 0.083 -1.113 2.691 0.081 0.209 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.999 0.111 -0.857 3.166 0.095 0.291 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.134 0.011 4.016 0.119 0.454 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.169 0.290 5.168 0.140 0.507 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.261 0.136 0.007 0.102 3.439 -0.169 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 031452 AND 031502 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.125 0.166 0.219 0.267 0.334 0.303 0.247 0.270 0.282 0.268 SDEV 0.285 0.224 0.284 0.244 0.164 0.192 0.227 0.205 0.208 0.181 SERR 0.116 0.071 0.047 0.041 0.024 0.024 0.024 0.019 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.461 0.618 0.726 0.793 0.857 0.860 0.849 0.895 0.918 0.914 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.282 0.281 0.328 SDEV 0.176 0.208 0.189 SERR 0.009 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.918 0.915 0.928 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.999 0.075 -0.491 3.596 0.072 0.296 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.113 -0.064 0.166 106 276 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.59 1.01 1.07 1.66 28.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.295 0.185 0.212 0.098 0.043 -0.021 0.023 -0.053 -0.009 -0.012 PACF 0.295 0.107 0.146 -0.012 -0.023 -0.071 0.036 -0.065 0.036 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.102 0.111 0.114 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.118 0.247 0.071 0.147 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.348 0.219 0.215 0.111 0.085 0.025 -0.031 -0.014 0.037 0.028 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.348 2 0.309 0.112 3 0.295 0.074 0.124 4 0.297 0.075 0.128 -0.014 5 0.297 0.073 0.127 -0.018 0.015 6 0.297 0.072 0.133 -0.015 0.028 -0.043 7 0.295 0.073 0.132 -0.008 0.032 -0.027 -0.055 8 0.295 0.073 0.132 -0.008 0.032 -0.027 -0.056 0.001 9 0.295 0.077 0.134 -0.010 0.033 -0.035 -0.060 -0.018 0.065 10 0.294 0.077 0.135 -0.009 0.032 -0.035 -0.063 -0.020 0.058 0.021 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2523.72 2476.51 2473.69 2469.73 2471.66 2473.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2474.86 2475.68 2477.68 2478.08 2479.91 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.295 0.074 0.124 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 117.00 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.295 0.161 0.193 0.105 0.065 0.051 0.033 0.022 0.015 0.0102 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 031411 3 0.179 0.317 0.145 0.029 2 031412 3 0.131 0.253 0.123 0.089 3 031421 3 0.132 0.236 0.131 0.116 4 031422 3 0.061 0.205 0.087 -0.031 5 031431 3 0.096 0.272 0.050 0.044 6 031432 3 0.111 0.199 0.036 0.199 7 031441 3 0.309 0.316 0.186 0.185 8 031442 3 0.258 0.345 0.143 0.139 9 031451 3 0.076 0.200 0.004 0.149 10 031452 3 0.309 0.202 0.153 0.353 11 031461 3 0.125 0.211 0.225 0.013 12 031462 3 0.233 0.315 0.269 -0.031 13 031471 3 0.243 0.389 0.106 0.092 14 031472 3 0.207 0.406 0.012 0.114 15 031481 3 0.210 0.336 0.134 0.089 16 031482 3 0.092 0.217 0.047 0.156 17 031491 3 0.236 0.371 0.120 0.096 18 031492 3 0.321 0.341 0.200 0.145 19 031501 3 0.255 0.389 0.045 0.181 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 031502 3 0.231 0.353 0.167 0.022 21 031511 3 0.178 0.311 0.138 0.005 22 031512 3 0.292 0.271 0.257 0.143 23 031521 3 0.146 0.335 -0.092 0.206 24 031522 3 0.262 0.478 -0.007 0.096 25 031531 3 0.134 0.147 0.300 -0.001 26 031532 3 0.144 0.219 0.175 0.082 27 031541 3 0.152 0.270 0.218 -0.043 28 031542 3 0.277 0.444 0.186 -0.094 29 031551 3 0.128 0.361 -0.022 -0.010 30 031552 3 0.146 0.251 0.107 0.142 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.189 0.299 0.121 0.089 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.076 0.082 0.092 0.094 MEDIAN 3 0.179 0.313 0.133 0.094 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.124 0.135 0.139 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.061 0.147 -0.092 -0.094 LOWER HINGE 3 0.131 0.219 0.047 0.013 UPPER HINGE 3 0.255 0.353 0.186 0.145 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.321 0.478 0.300 0.353 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.122 -0.703 3.218 0.137 0.002 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.100 -0.929 4.319 0.106 0.007 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.089 -0.379 3.206 0.098 -0.015 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.081 -0.068 3.682 0.090 -0.004 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.000 0.127 0.007 3.533 0.145 0.002 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.108 0.105 3.103 0.121 0.025 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.115 -0.005 3.392 0.124 0.001 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.136 -0.015 3.017 0.154 -0.002 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.114 -0.813 3.542 0.126 -0.013 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.113 -0.494 4.290 0.123 -0.012 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.109 -0.935 4.411 0.119 0.000 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.110 -0.817 6.513 0.117 -0.003 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.147 -0.219 3.157 0.164 0.002 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.128 0.064 3.309 0.145 -0.003 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.117 -0.458 3.640 0.130 -0.006 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.126 0.035 3.407 0.141 0.001 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.108 0.146 3.836 0.114 0.004 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.096 -0.501 4.211 0.106 -0.004 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.146 0.050 2.645 0.166 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.114 -0.455 3.570 0.129 0.004 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.093 -0.659 4.431 0.100 0.002 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.105 -0.268 4.487 0.108 -0.001 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.118 -0.982 4.951 0.127 -0.016 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.138 -0.984 4.706 0.147 -0.004 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.103 -0.411 3.605 0.117 -0.001 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.116 -1.167 4.939 0.131 0.008 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.091 -0.578 3.731 0.103 0.001 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.095 -0.618 4.944 0.110 -0.005 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.104 -0.424 3.411 0.116 0.002 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.101 -0.194 3.007 0.114 0.014 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.112 -0.422 3.874 0.124 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.016 0.383 0.810 0.019 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.111 -0.440 3.623 0.122 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.021 0.688 1.101 0.027 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.081 -1.167 2.645 0.090 -0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.101 -0.703 3.309 0.110 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.122 -0.015 4.411 0.137 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.147 0.146 6.513 0.166 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.268 0.120 0.006 0.341 3.811 -0.054 0.747 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.054 SERIES 031421 AND 031522 122 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.747 SERIES 031521 AND 031522 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.136 0.221 0.285 0.310 0.367 0.377 0.264 0.305 0.295 0.280 SDEV 0.324 0.204 0.241 0.205 0.148 0.149 0.215 0.182 0.179 0.157 SERR 0.132 0.064 0.040 0.034 0.022 0.018 0.023 0.017 0.011 0.008 EPS 0.484 0.697 0.790 0.826 0.874 0.895 0.860 0.910 0.923 0.919 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.279 0.286 0.305 SDEV 0.159 0.172 0.164 SERR 0.008 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.916 0.916 0.921 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 1.001 0.070 -0.562 3.814 0.082 -0.062 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.141 -0.079 0.167 96 286 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.58 1.00 1.09 1.67 85.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.062 -0.021 0.023 -0.017 0.004 -0.070 -0.001 -0.063 0.030 0.036 PACF -0.062 -0.025 0.020 -0.015 0.003 -0.072 -0.009 -0.068 0.025 0.035 95% C.L. 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 0.001 -0.016 0.000 -0.074 -0.009 -0.063 0.030 0.036 PACF 0.000 -0.001 0.001 -0.016 0.000 -0.074 -0.009 -0.063 0.031 0.033 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.075 -0.530 3.585 0.069 0.337 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.336 0.201 0.188 0.082 0.033 -0.033 -0.018 -0.055 0.000 0.008 PACF 0.336 0.099 0.107 -0.026 -0.021 -0.069 0.006 -0.043 0.052 0.013 95% C.L. 0.102 0.113 0.117 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.133 0.291 0.069 0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES