RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS131X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 031 1 Tyn hill (Altai) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 031 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 650 5414-8935 1613 1994 - 031 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 031441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 28 IN 1 GAPS / 1749 1776 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 031471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 031482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 42 IN 1 GAPS / 1839 1880 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 031491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1876 1877 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 031501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 031502 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 031521 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 031551 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1778 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.801 0.121 -1.188 3.550 0.116 0.570 2 031412 1830 1994 165 0.825 0.093 -1.283 4.177 0.093 0.394 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.721 0.080 -0.681 3.889 0.083 0.557 4 031422 1837 1994 158 0.724 0.085 0.075 2.456 0.078 0.661 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.702 0.121 -0.876 3.243 0.132 0.601 6 031432 1788 1963 176 0.649 0.128 -0.051 2.019 0.117 0.735 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.652 0.134 -0.272 1.887 0.113 0.752 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.585 0.115 0.312 2.393 0.126 0.672 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.709 0.122 -0.758 2.747 0.107 0.692 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.740 0.124 -1.531 5.032 0.116 0.676 11 031461 1852 1994 143 0.743 0.088 -0.906 3.902 0.107 0.286 12 031462 1832 1994 163 0.729 0.097 -1.055 4.842 0.099 0.509 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.620 0.121 0.246 2.651 0.136 0.587 14 031472 1634 1994 361 0.593 0.111 0.400 2.710 0.126 0.651 15 031481 1680 1994 315 0.712 0.095 -0.878 4.352 0.109 0.439 16 031482 1671 1994 324 0.636 0.131 -0.055 2.092 0.125 0.733 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.683 0.147 -0.251 2.037 0.095 0.861 18 031492 1722 1994 273 0.674 0.096 -0.524 2.374 0.086 0.705 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.622 0.118 -0.003 2.602 0.146 0.555 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 0.750 0.105 -0.614 2.762 0.107 0.544 21 031511 1844 1994 151 0.808 0.081 -1.892 7.870 0.077 0.494 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.739 0.147 -1.163 3.166 0.090 0.840 23 031521 1798 1994 197 0.805 0.114 -1.247 4.171 0.107 0.486 24 031522 1806 1994 189 0.780 0.127 -1.331 4.076 0.121 0.549 25 031531 1839 1992 154 0.690 0.090 -0.900 3.551 0.103 0.546 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.743 0.092 -1.106 5.087 0.108 0.381 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.703 0.116 -0.909 3.098 0.084 0.792 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.721 0.114 -1.151 4.185 0.088 0.776 29 031551 1757 1994 238 0.700 0.090 -0.646 3.587 0.101 0.510 30 031552 1753 1994 242 0.664 0.087 -0.674 3.410 0.098 0.569 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1613 TO 1994 382 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.707 0.110 -0.697 3.464 0.106 0.604 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.063 0.019 0.580 1.240 0.018 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 0.710 0.114 -0.817 3.327 0.107 0.579 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.079 0.031 0.900 1.569 0.024 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.585 0.080 -1.892 1.887 0.077 0.286 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.664 0.092 -1.151 2.602 0.093 0.510 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 0.743 0.122 -0.251 4.171 0.117 0.705 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 0.825 0.147 0.400 7.870 0.146 0.861 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.314 0.201 0.010 -0.080 2.908 -0.234 0.890 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.234 SERIES 031452 AND 031502 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.890 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.149 0.158 0.199 0.258 0.391 0.300 0.239 0.273 0.284 0.307 SDEV 0.327 0.205 0.378 0.271 0.151 0.207 0.248 0.216 0.228 0.187 SERR 0.133 0.065 0.063 0.045 0.022 0.026 0.026 0.020 0.014 0.010 EPS 0.511 0.604 0.702 0.786 0.885 0.858 0.843 0.896 0.919 0.928 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.250 0.342 0.333 SDEV 0.187 0.232 0.213 SERR 0.010 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.904 0.935 0.929 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 0.704 0.065 -0.507 3.965 0.074 0.460 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.337 -0.217 0.262 39 343 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.31 1.00 1.09 1.40 14.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 182. 119. 122. 154. 273. 361. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.459 0.388 0.396 0.325 0.281 0.201 0.248 0.211 0.233 0.224 PACF 0.459 0.224 0.207 0.068 0.036 -0.049 0.093 0.022 0.092 0.038 95% C.L. 0.102 0.122 0.134 0.146 0.153 0.159 0.161 0.165 0.168 0.171 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.288 0.309 0.149 0.211 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080320 0.86611491 2 031412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036652 0.79497266 3 031421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00071393 0.76530010 4 031422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00108020 0.81005323 5 031431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00108965 0.81749356 6 031432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00202491 0.82778376 7 031441 1 0.35449624 0.00712750 0.00000000 0.48407164 8 031442 1 0.25872701 0.02005624 0.00000000 0.54483157 9 031451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00208109 0.85235399 10 031452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00120290 0.82480472 11 031461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020142 0.72857481 12 031462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011807 0.73876166 13 031471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025455 0.68045580 14 031472 1 0.33840451 0.03140678 0.00000000 0.56386119 15 031481 1 0.04457150 0.01279835 0.00000000 0.70124298 16 031482 1 0.37847382 0.00708183 0.00000000 0.48124418 17 031491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00132482 0.88159055 18 031492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070963 0.77077192 19 031501 1 0.20467471 0.01438723 0.00000000 0.57456791 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046491 0.80876505 21 031511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069191 0.86040002 22 031512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235475 0.91468561 23 031521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087587 0.88955927 24 031522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065198 0.84177983 25 031531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097443 0.76525849 26 031532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039616 0.77051961 27 031541 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00195176 0.85379422 28 031542 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00141008 0.83488679 29 031551 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061848 0.77389824 30 031552 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064028 0.74196768 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.146 -1.012 3.347 0.116 0.519 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.111 -1.292 4.315 0.092 0.374 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.106 -0.675 3.685 0.082 0.522 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.094 -0.135 2.918 0.077 0.455 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.000 0.152 -0.348 3.178 0.131 0.452 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.118 0.013 3.186 0.116 0.233 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.164 0.358 3.172 0.112 0.582 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.173 0.468 3.123 0.126 0.562 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.131 -0.987 3.630 0.107 0.417 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.161 -1.199 4.353 0.115 0.605 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.118 -0.888 4.033 0.106 0.281 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.134 -0.990 4.644 0.099 0.504 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.189 0.150 2.552 0.141 0.529 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.156 0.215 3.022 0.126 0.487 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.134 -0.726 4.213 0.109 0.430 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.141 0.062 3.709 0.125 0.323 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.138 -0.250 2.644 0.095 0.586 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.119 -0.309 3.661 0.086 0.565 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.176 -0.153 2.713 0.146 0.481 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.133 -0.568 3.102 0.106 0.489 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.095 -1.596 7.172 0.077 0.405 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.999 0.156 -0.563 3.182 0.089 0.714 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.132 -1.136 4.316 0.108 0.385 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.160 -1.047 3.680 0.120 0.505 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.116 -0.840 3.746 0.102 0.389 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.122 -1.161 5.025 0.108 0.355 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.999 0.115 -0.444 4.301 0.084 0.566 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.999 0.135 -0.831 4.401 0.088 0.669 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.114 -0.578 4.058 0.100 0.371 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.115 -0.121 3.532 0.097 0.429 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.135 -0.553 3.754 0.106 0.473 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.024 0.535 0.901 0.018 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.133 -0.573 3.670 0.106 0.484 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.040 0.855 1.129 0.024 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.999 0.094 -1.596 2.552 0.077 0.233 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.116 -0.990 3.172 0.092 0.389 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.156 -0.135 4.301 0.116 0.562 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.189 0.468 7.172 0.146 0.714 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 031411 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 031412 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 031421 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 031422 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 031431 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 031432 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 031441 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 031442 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 031451 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 031452 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 031461 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 031462 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 031471 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 031472 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 031481 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 031482 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 031491 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 031492 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 031501 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 031502 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 031511 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 031512 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 031521 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 031522 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 031531 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 031532 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 031541 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 031542 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 031551 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 031552 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 0.999 0.132 -1.051 3.751 0.115 0.375 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.105 -1.398 4.686 0.092 0.297 3 031421 1873 1994 122 0.999 0.092 -0.565 4.339 0.082 0.327 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.081 -0.011 2.898 0.077 0.272 5 031431 1784 1994 211 0.999 0.132 -0.362 3.540 0.131 0.269 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.117 0.010 3.308 0.116 0.218 7 031441 1653 1907 255 0.998 0.146 0.151 2.866 0.112 0.477 8 031442 1678 1994 317 0.998 0.159 0.326 2.928 0.126 0.490 9 031451 1858 1994 137 0.999 0.116 -1.206 4.092 0.106 0.242 10 031452 1855 1994 140 0.998 0.137 -1.233 5.336 0.115 0.407 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.113 -0.957 4.216 0.106 0.221 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.123 -0.922 4.848 0.099 0.396 13 031471 1644 1994 351 0.999 0.175 -0.039 2.685 0.141 0.455 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.148 0.208 3.076 0.126 0.425 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.131 -0.786 4.411 0.109 0.408 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.139 0.041 3.593 0.125 0.307 17 031491 1695 1994 300 0.999 0.126 -0.099 2.999 0.095 0.499 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.115 -0.300 3.626 0.086 0.530 19 031501 1613 1947 335 0.999 0.170 -0.127 2.795 0.146 0.450 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.127 -0.623 3.489 0.106 0.439 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.091 -1.330 7.358 0.077 0.339 22 031512 1847 1994 148 0.998 0.123 -0.334 4.693 0.089 0.487 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.127 -1.202 4.875 0.108 0.330 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.156 -1.033 3.882 0.120 0.474 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.106 -0.906 4.709 0.102 0.260 26 031532 1859 1994 136 0.999 0.116 -1.154 5.250 0.108 0.298 27 031541 1841 1994 154 0.999 0.093 -0.954 5.449 0.084 0.324 28 031542 1835 1994 160 0.999 0.112 -0.783 5.526 0.088 0.511 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.112 -0.612 4.067 0.100 0.345 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.109 -0.088 3.356 0.098 0.360 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.999 0.124 -0.578 4.088 0.106 0.374 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.023 0.525 1.059 0.018 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.123 -0.618 3.974 0.106 0.367 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.001 0.025 0.945 1.402 0.024 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.998 0.081 -1.398 2.685 0.077 0.218 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.999 0.112 -1.033 3.308 0.092 0.298 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.137 -0.088 4.709 0.116 0.455 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.175 0.326 7.358 0.146 0.530 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.279 0.134 0.006 0.113 3.536 -0.158 0.753 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.158 SERIES 031452 AND 031502 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.753 SERIES 031541 AND 031542 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.113 0.129 0.233 0.276 0.374 0.321 0.250 0.277 0.295 0.298 SDEV 0.303 0.243 0.290 0.251 0.161 0.193 0.236 0.209 0.212 0.179 SERR 0.124 0.077 0.048 0.042 0.024 0.024 0.025 0.019 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.432 0.546 0.741 0.801 0.877 0.869 0.851 0.898 0.923 0.925 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.295 0.288 0.346 SDEV 0.177 0.211 0.187 SERR 0.009 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.922 0.917 0.933 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.076 -0.620 3.969 0.071 0.297 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.150 -0.081 0.180 128 254 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.60 1.00 1.08 1.68 31.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.189 0.201 0.094 0.046 -0.044 0.013 -0.054 -0.030 -0.019 PACF 0.296 0.111 0.131 -0.010 -0.017 -0.095 0.038 -0.060 0.019 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.102 0.111 0.114 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.116 0.248 0.079 0.132 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.352 0.215 0.198 0.120 0.067 0.007 -0.030 -0.025 0.026 0.015 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.352 2 0.315 0.104 3 0.304 0.069 0.108 4 0.303 0.069 0.106 0.008 5 0.303 0.070 0.107 0.011 -0.010 6 0.303 0.070 0.112 0.015 0.004 -0.049 7 0.301 0.071 0.112 0.019 0.008 -0.035 -0.044 8 0.301 0.070 0.112 0.020 0.008 -0.035 -0.042 -0.006 9 0.301 0.073 0.115 0.019 0.007 -0.042 -0.046 -0.024 0.060 10 0.300 0.073 0.115 0.020 0.007 -0.042 -0.047 -0.025 0.056 0.012 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2542.01 2493.50 2491.38 2488.87 2490.85 2492.81 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2493.90 2495.17 2497.16 2497.79 2499.74 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.304 0.069 0.108 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.34 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.74 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.304 0.162 0.179 0.099 0.060 0.044 0.028 0.018 0.012 0.0081 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 031411 3 0.188 0.311 0.156 0.035 2 031412 3 0.117 0.244 0.124 0.077 3 031421 3 0.146 0.277 0.146 0.050 4 031422 3 0.096 0.249 0.127 -0.049 5 031431 3 0.085 0.251 0.063 0.013 6 031432 3 0.087 0.181 0.075 0.144 7 031441 3 0.300 0.313 0.179 0.188 8 031442 3 0.282 0.375 0.121 0.148 9 031451 3 0.084 0.235 -0.010 0.130 10 031452 3 0.316 0.216 0.165 0.325 11 031461 3 0.092 0.173 0.211 0.006 12 031462 3 0.199 0.310 0.215 0.004 13 031471 3 0.237 0.364 0.130 0.097 14 031472 3 0.204 0.389 0.006 0.150 15 031481 3 0.201 0.335 0.129 0.076 16 031482 3 0.124 0.275 0.028 0.156 17 031491 3 0.273 0.417 0.146 0.033 18 031492 3 0.333 0.375 0.194 0.115 19 031501 3 0.235 0.379 0.050 0.164 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 031502 3 0.224 0.369 0.145 0.019 21 031511 3 0.172 0.295 0.129 0.025 22 031512 3 0.322 0.302 0.227 0.166 23 031521 3 0.162 0.372 -0.148 0.214 24 031522 3 0.244 0.446 0.000 0.111 25 031531 3 0.140 0.197 0.282 -0.031 26 031532 3 0.143 0.241 0.124 0.103 27 031541 3 0.154 0.274 0.231 -0.082 28 031542 3 0.276 0.479 0.125 -0.097 29 031551 3 0.124 0.359 -0.038 0.017 30 031552 3 0.170 0.276 0.175 0.073 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.191 0.309 0.117 0.079 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.077 0.078 0.092 0.092 MEDIAN 3 0.180 0.306 0.129 0.076 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.120 0.124 0.112 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.084 0.173 -0.148 -0.097 LOWER HINGE 3 0.124 0.249 0.063 0.017 UPPER HINGE 3 0.244 0.372 0.175 0.148 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.333 0.479 0.282 0.325 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 031411 1834 1994 161 1.000 0.120 -0.830 3.766 0.131 0.004 2 031412 1830 1994 165 1.000 0.099 -1.144 4.731 0.104 0.005 3 031421 1873 1994 122 1.000 0.085 -0.339 3.619 0.093 -0.013 4 031422 1837 1994 158 1.000 0.077 0.035 3.038 0.087 -0.007 5 031431 1784 1994 211 1.000 0.127 -0.322 3.665 0.148 0.000 6 031432 1788 1963 176 1.000 0.112 0.042 3.550 0.125 0.015 7 031441 1653 1907 255 1.000 0.122 -0.078 3.494 0.130 -0.002 8 031442 1678 1994 317 1.000 0.135 -0.059 3.164 0.152 -0.004 9 031451 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.112 -1.038 4.318 0.122 -0.011 10 031452 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.114 -0.918 5.368 0.121 -0.032 11 031461 1852 1994 143 1.000 0.108 -1.041 5.023 0.115 0.000 12 031462 1832 1994 163 1.000 0.110 -1.197 8.226 0.114 0.000 13 031471 1644 1994 351 1.000 0.153 -0.347 3.394 0.169 0.003 14 031472 1634 1994 361 1.000 0.132 -0.060 3.274 0.150 -0.001 15 031481 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.118 -0.625 4.380 0.126 -0.005 16 031482 1671 1994 324 1.000 0.130 -0.008 3.945 0.142 0.008 17 031491 1695 1994 300 1.000 0.108 0.079 3.681 0.113 0.004 18 031492 1722 1994 273 1.000 0.094 -0.547 4.578 0.102 -0.003 19 031501 1613 1947 335 1.000 0.149 -0.050 2.892 0.171 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 031502 1642 1895 254 1.000 0.113 -0.599 4.048 0.125 0.003 21 031511 1844 1994 151 1.000 0.085 -1.043 5.945 0.087 0.000 22 031512 1847 1994 148 1.000 0.101 -0.212 5.088 0.101 0.002 23 031521 1798 1994 197 1.000 0.117 -1.270 5.942 0.122 -0.021 24 031522 1806 1994 189 1.000 0.136 -1.121 5.202 0.142 -0.008 25 031531 1839 1992 154 1.000 0.099 -0.603 4.521 0.109 -0.001 26 031532 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.109 -1.190 5.344 0.120 0.011 27 031541 1841 1994 154 1.000 0.086 -0.841 5.129 0.093 0.004 28 031542 1835 1994 160 1.000 0.095 -0.782 5.647 0.108 0.003 29 031551 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.105 -0.681 4.070 0.114 0.001 30 031552 1753 1994 242 1.000 0.099 -0.155 3.467 0.111 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.112 -0.565 4.417 0.122 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.019 0.450 1.142 0.022 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.111 -0.601 4.194 0.121 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 119 0.000 0.023 0.960 1.578 0.023 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.077 -1.270 2.892 0.087 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.099 -1.038 3.550 0.108 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.122 -0.078 5.129 0.131 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 361 1.000 0.153 0.079 8.226 0.171 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.288 0.120 0.006 0.241 3.666 -0.044 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.044 SERIES 031421 AND 031522 122 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 031521 AND 031522 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 6. 10. 36. 36. 45. 66. 91. 120. 276. 351. RBAR 0.115 0.166 0.289 0.316 0.426 0.409 0.276 0.317 0.312 0.307 SDEV 0.342 0.225 0.242 0.206 0.137 0.145 0.221 0.186 0.183 0.165 SERR 0.140 0.071 0.040 0.034 0.020 0.018 0.023 0.017 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.437 0.618 0.794 0.830 0.899 0.907 0.867 0.914 0.928 0.928 NSS 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.6 12.0 14.1 17.1 22.9 28.5 29.2 YEAR 1920. 1945. 1970. CORR 378. 325. 300. RBAR 0.294 0.293 0.328 SDEV 0.162 0.172 0.162 SERR 0.008 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.922 0.919 0.928 NSS 28.3 27.4 26.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 1.001 0.071 -0.618 4.221 0.083 -0.073 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.198 -0.108 0.194 126 256 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.74 1.00 1.07 1.81 12.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.073 -0.036 0.041 -0.018 0.008 -0.086 0.005 -0.069 0.026 0.031 PACF -0.073 -0.041 0.035 -0.014 0.008 -0.088 -0.006 -0.077 0.023 0.026 95% C.L. 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.002 0.003 -0.017 0.005 -0.091 -0.006 -0.068 0.025 0.027 PACF 0.000 -0.002 0.003 -0.017 0.005 -0.091 -0.006 -0.070 0.026 0.024 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1613 1994 382 1.001 0.076 -0.609 3.802 0.069 0.342 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.341 0.196 0.172 0.070 0.023 -0.060 -0.033 -0.072 -0.016 -0.010 PACF 0.341 0.090 0.092 -0.029 -0.022 -0.088 0.010 -0.053 0.049 0.001 95% C.L. 0.102 0.114 0.117 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.132 0.301 0.064 0.092 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.39 MINUTES