RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS138L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS138L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 047 1 Julietta north WIDTH_LATE LADA - 047 2 Russia Larch -999 6110-15358 1547 1994 - 047 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 047012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1758 1781 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 047031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 47 IN 4 GAPS / 1693 1697 / 1714 1747 / 1841 1847 / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 047032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 181 IN 2 GAPS / 1556 1556 / 1706 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 047041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 58 IN 4 GAPS / 1730 1733 / 1817 1818 / 1862 1882 / 1903 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 047042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 1 GAPS / 1926 1935 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 047051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 2 GAPS / 1785 1788 / 1811 1827 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 047052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 131 IN 3 GAPS / 1672 1676 / 1715 1835 / 1955 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 047061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 152 IN 3 GAPS / 1648 1654 / 1727 1866 / 1894 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 047062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1796 1802 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 047071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 66 IN 3 GAPS / 1728 1773 / 1812 1824 / 1965 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 047072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1667 1671 / 1789 1793 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 047091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 33 IN 2 GAPS / 1908 1913 / 1943 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 047092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 153 IN 2 GAPS / 1726 1873 / 1904 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 047112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 172 IN 1 GAPS / 1721 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 047122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 74 IN 1 GAPS / 1796 1869 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 047132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 047141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 172 IN 1 GAPS / 1770 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 047142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 132 IN 5 GAPS / 1663 1710 / 1789 1793 / 1797 1865 / 1954 1958 / / 1965 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 047161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1886 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 047162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1912 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 0.081 0.057 2.724 12.941 0.341 0.708 2 047012 1619 1994 376 0.126 0.112 2.053 7.585 0.334 0.846 3 047021 1779 1994 216 0.161 0.093 1.877 7.018 0.350 0.590 4 047022 1780 1994 215 0.186 0.100 2.414 13.146 0.384 0.374 5 047031 1552 1938 387 0.073 0.050 2.427 11.223 0.281 0.733 6 047032 1547 1932 386 0.074 0.043 1.953 7.209 0.243 0.781 7 047041 1570 1994 425 0.091 0.066 1.641 5.278 0.339 0.729 8 047042 1589 1994 406 0.085 0.061 2.587 13.340 0.265 0.835 9 047051 1598 1953 356 0.080 0.035 2.481 16.000 0.288 0.582 10 047052 1575 1994 420 0.070 0.037 1.241 4.403 0.286 0.692 11 047061 1570 1899 330 0.096 0.053 1.811 8.114 0.259 0.754 12 047062 1771 1994 224 0.084 0.035 0.942 4.197 0.336 0.485 13 047071 1599 1994 396 0.086 0.036 1.418 6.589 0.274 0.633 14 047072 1569 1994 426 0.075 0.043 2.758 14.944 0.293 0.720 15 047081 1826 1994 169 0.183 0.074 2.490 14.381 0.338 0.171 16 047082 1771 1994 224 0.178 0.066 0.729 3.503 0.343 0.372 17 047091 1589 1994 406 0.056 0.025 1.836 9.172 0.316 0.565 18 047092 1590 1994 405 0.052 0.024 1.139 4.634 0.339 0.615 19 047101 1849 1994 146 0.103 0.040 1.244 5.888 0.274 0.529 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 0.113 0.036 0.938 4.992 0.242 0.546 21 047111 1776 1994 219 0.113 0.065 2.155 10.191 0.360 0.503 22 047112 1613 1994 382 0.086 0.045 1.277 5.012 0.361 0.629 23 047121 1637 1994 358 0.080 0.043 1.732 7.065 0.318 0.640 24 047122 1592 1994 403 0.091 0.045 0.977 4.146 0.328 0.594 25 047131 1613 1994 382 0.078 0.028 0.746 3.400 0.283 0.521 26 047132 1590 1994 405 0.080 0.039 2.527 12.049 0.289 0.650 27 047141 1586 1994 409 0.094 0.062 1.455 5.451 0.406 0.668 28 047142 1583 1977 395 0.072 0.055 3.372 21.631 0.271 0.679 29 047151 1864 1994 131 0.197 0.118 2.027 7.438 0.320 0.717 30 047152 1880 1994 115 0.169 0.064 0.930 3.841 0.289 0.464 31 047161 1879 1994 116 0.049 0.012 0.475 4.404 0.224 0.239 32 047162 1886 1994 109 0.067 0.046 3.283 13.468 0.231 0.894 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1547 TO 1994 448 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 261 0.101 0.053 1.802 8.520 0.306 0.608 STANDARD DEVIATION 95 0.042 0.025 0.765 4.540 0.045 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 244 0.086 0.046 1.823 7.137 0.305 0.631 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 154 0.038 0.028 1.264 7.682 0.065 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 104 0.049 0.012 0.475 3.400 0.224 0.171 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 191 0.075 0.036 1.190 4.813 0.274 0.525 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 346 0.113 0.064 2.454 12.495 0.339 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 416 0.197 0.118 3.372 21.631 0.406 0.894 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 494 0.270 0.226 0.010 -0.044 2.729 -0.419 0.842 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.419 SERIES 047032 AND 047161 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.842 SERIES 047112 AND 047141 382 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.60 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 15. 105. 153. 171. 171. 190. 190. 190. 231. 300. RBAR 0.390 0.283 0.459 0.340 0.395 0.486 0.559 0.496 0.483 0.480 SDEV 0.132 0.172 0.163 0.182 0.128 0.165 0.195 0.207 0.259 0.241 SERR 0.034 0.017 0.013 0.014 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.015 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.891 0.872 0.941 0.909 0.928 0.950 0.962 0.957 0.959 0.960 NSS 12.8 17.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.2 22.5 24.8 26.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 325. 378. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.435 0.319 0.263 0.305 0.329 SDEV 0.228 0.228 0.263 0.197 0.195 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.014 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.955 0.933 0.917 0.930 0.934 NSS 27.7 29.8 31.1 30.4 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 0.085 0.037 2.013 9.563 0.218 0.743 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.568 0.325 0.008 302 146 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.08 2.45 1.00 1.37 3.82 27.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 367. 188. 109. 216. 404. 426. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.742 0.653 0.634 0.586 0.590 0.579 0.595 0.609 0.585 0.544 PACF 0.742 0.230 0.212 0.065 0.155 0.083 0.151 0.120 0.037 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.094 0.137 0.162 0.183 0.199 0.214 0.228 0.241 0.255 0.266 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.630 0.438 0.048 0.132 -0.030 0.085 0.010 0.100 0.139 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 047011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027192 0.03763927 2 047012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061331 0.00630944 3 047021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021679 0.13731137 4 047022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039601 0.22918801 5 047031 1 0.16298276 0.01461760 0.00000000 0.04238007 6 047032 1 0.12889059 0.01926804 0.00000000 0.04573201 7 047041 1 0.16110224 0.02854701 0.00000000 0.07397100 8 047042 1 0.11105838 0.03340289 0.00000000 0.07828172 9 047051 1 0.18333060 0.11885347 0.00000000 0.07453378 10 047052 1 0.09242469 0.00818931 0.00000000 0.03919292 11 047061 1 0.13772544 0.01453633 0.00000000 0.05198298 12 047062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010315 0.09670445 13 047071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006969 0.06936458 14 047072 1 0.30746073 0.13265851 0.00000000 0.06952748 15 047081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032040 0.21019231 16 047082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000808 0.17863189 17 047091 1 0.06379665 0.01570386 0.00000000 0.04452121 18 047092 1 0.06454542 0.03468521 0.00000000 0.04788281 19 047101 1 0.07202066 0.02579618 0.00000000 0.08450554 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 047102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018033 0.12849122 21 047111 1 0.10919556 0.00340333 0.00000000 0.03575594 22 047112 1 0.10291795 0.02407452 0.00000000 0.06940030 23 047121 1 0.09231783 0.01139706 0.00000000 0.05757741 24 047122 1 0.09968276 0.00269089 0.00000000 0.02924850 25 047131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006711 0.09107103 26 047132 1 0.17764980 0.07078181 0.00000000 0.07322942 27 047141 1 0.15197247 0.02037071 0.00000000 0.06413548 28 047142 1 0.15987481 0.01578106 0.00000000 0.03953746 29 047151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00164651 0.08881151 30 047152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064365 0.13127689 31 047161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001456 0.04930865 32 047162 1 0.12384467 0.05298951 0.00000000 0.04610762 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 1.011 0.580 2.430 12.708 0.340 0.632 2 047012 1619 1994 376 1.404 1.740 3.671 17.720 0.332 0.862 3 047021 1779 1994 216 1.000 0.571 1.883 7.104 0.349 0.577 4 047022 1780 1994 215 1.000 0.499 2.008 10.503 0.382 0.341 5 047031 1552 1938 387 0.999 0.300 1.036 6.482 0.273 0.255 6 047032 1547 1932 386 1.000 0.260 0.279 3.426 0.227 0.374 7 047041 1570 1994 425 0.999 0.702 2.575 10.857 0.335 0.723 8 047042 1589 1994 406 0.999 0.734 3.198 17.934 0.263 0.833 9 047051 1598 1953 356 1.000 0.371 1.054 4.617 0.281 0.512 10 047052 1575 1994 420 1.000 0.317 0.949 5.175 0.263 0.347 11 047061 1570 1899 330 1.000 0.290 0.394 4.378 0.246 0.409 12 047062 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.418 0.944 4.334 0.333 0.490 13 047071 1599 1994 396 1.000 0.396 1.417 6.854 0.269 0.606 14 047072 1569 1994 426 1.000 0.470 1.985 10.840 0.290 0.664 15 047081 1826 1994 169 1.000 0.390 2.345 12.869 0.336 0.150 16 047082 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.373 0.725 3.493 0.341 0.370 17 047091 1589 1994 406 1.000 0.350 0.858 4.848 0.308 0.325 18 047092 1590 1994 405 0.999 0.356 0.365 3.511 0.317 0.433 19 047101 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.341 1.294 7.170 0.273 0.442 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 1.000 0.309 0.871 4.897 0.241 0.527 21 047111 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.539 1.955 8.449 0.359 0.506 22 047112 1613 1994 382 0.999 0.380 0.370 3.277 0.334 0.446 23 047121 1637 1994 358 1.000 0.424 1.041 4.755 0.318 0.495 24 047122 1592 1994 403 1.000 0.425 1.031 4.959 0.324 0.523 25 047131 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.348 0.830 3.936 0.282 0.494 26 047132 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.393 1.355 6.051 0.290 0.528 27 047141 1586 1994 409 0.999 0.469 0.915 4.635 0.373 0.511 28 047142 1583 1977 395 1.001 0.318 1.240 9.555 0.271 0.281 29 047151 1864 1994 131 1.015 0.468 1.450 5.707 0.318 0.593 30 047152 1880 1994 115 1.001 0.356 0.908 4.033 0.287 0.417 31 047161 1879 1994 116 1.000 0.253 0.523 4.269 0.215 0.286 32 047162 1886 1994 109 1.001 0.367 1.411 6.213 0.230 0.662 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 307 1.013 0.453 1.353 7.049 0.300 0.488 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.071 0.261 0.821 3.931 0.044 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 367 1.000 0.385 1.047 5.441 0.299 0.495 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 188 0.001 0.125 1.055 4.647 0.065 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.253 0.279 3.277 0.215 0.150 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 215 1.000 0.345 0.864 4.356 0.270 0.372 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 404 1.000 0.470 1.919 9.002 0.335 0.585 MAXIMUM VALUE 426 1.404 1.740 3.671 17.934 0.382 0.862 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 047011 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 047012 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 047021 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 047022 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 047031 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 047032 -67 258 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 047041 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 047042 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 047051 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 047052 -67 281 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 047061 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 047062 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 047071 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 047072 -67 285 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 047081 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 047082 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 047091 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 047092 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 047101 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 047102 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 047111 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 047112 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 047121 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 047122 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 047131 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 047132 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 047141 -67 274 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 047142 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 047151 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 047152 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 047161 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 047162 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 0.991 0.517 2.691 16.107 0.340 0.580 2 047012 1619 1994 376 1.030 0.483 0.789 3.755 0.332 0.611 3 047021 1779 1994 216 0.997 0.548 1.691 6.302 0.349 0.556 4 047022 1780 1994 215 0.998 0.481 1.873 9.722 0.382 0.316 5 047031 1552 1938 387 0.999 0.294 0.943 6.005 0.273 0.230 6 047032 1547 1932 386 0.999 0.252 0.189 3.341 0.227 0.336 7 047041 1570 1994 425 0.991 0.391 1.256 5.933 0.336 0.354 8 047042 1589 1994 406 0.969 0.481 2.257 14.137 0.264 0.728 9 047051 1598 1953 356 0.998 0.362 1.071 4.792 0.281 0.484 10 047052 1575 1994 420 0.999 0.309 0.877 4.923 0.263 0.323 11 047061 1570 1899 330 0.999 0.283 0.337 4.355 0.246 0.380 12 047062 1771 1994 224 0.993 0.380 0.732 3.865 0.334 0.426 13 047071 1599 1994 396 0.993 0.353 1.303 6.944 0.269 0.517 14 047072 1569 1994 426 0.996 0.417 2.023 13.000 0.290 0.583 15 047081 1826 1994 169 0.998 0.376 2.258 12.678 0.336 0.105 16 047082 1771 1994 224 0.998 0.347 0.570 3.420 0.341 0.297 17 047091 1589 1994 406 0.998 0.341 0.910 5.480 0.308 0.288 18 047092 1590 1994 405 0.996 0.339 0.383 3.906 0.317 0.369 19 047101 1849 1994 146 0.998 0.320 1.124 6.973 0.273 0.379 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 0.997 0.280 0.529 3.910 0.241 0.414 21 047111 1776 1994 219 0.995 0.504 1.809 8.035 0.359 0.443 22 047112 1613 1994 382 0.997 0.363 0.269 3.322 0.334 0.407 23 047121 1637 1994 358 0.995 0.410 1.130 5.205 0.318 0.463 24 047122 1592 1994 403 0.991 0.377 0.822 4.193 0.325 0.416 25 047131 1613 1994 382 0.997 0.329 0.675 3.760 0.282 0.447 26 047132 1590 1994 405 0.997 0.361 1.202 5.703 0.290 0.467 27 047141 1586 1994 409 0.992 0.405 0.873 5.663 0.373 0.374 28 047142 1583 1977 395 0.998 0.303 1.153 9.773 0.271 0.227 29 047151 1864 1994 131 0.988 0.386 1.619 7.095 0.317 0.460 30 047152 1880 1994 115 0.997 0.341 1.070 4.812 0.287 0.353 31 047161 1879 1994 116 0.997 0.220 0.379 4.737 0.216 0.102 32 047162 1886 1994 109 0.996 0.338 1.235 6.062 0.230 0.624 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 307 0.996 0.372 1.126 6.497 0.300 0.408 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.008 0.078 0.629 3.343 0.044 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 367 0.997 0.362 1.070 5.571 0.299 0.411 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 188 0.004 0.083 0.758 2.982 0.065 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.969 0.220 0.189 3.322 0.216 0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 215 0.994 0.325 0.703 4.052 0.270 0.329 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 404 0.998 0.407 1.461 7.034 0.335 0.475 MAXIMUM VALUE 426 1.030 0.548 2.691 16.107 0.382 0.728 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 494 0.302 0.146 0.007 0.065 2.877 -0.195 0.796 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.195 SERIES 047032 AND 047161 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.796 SERIES 047112 AND 047141 382 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.60 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 15. 105. 153. 171. 171. 190. 190. 190. 231. 300. RBAR 0.322 0.293 0.345 0.333 0.434 0.488 0.569 0.495 0.510 0.487 SDEV 0.118 0.169 0.190 0.179 0.124 0.161 0.192 0.212 0.241 0.239 SERR 0.030 0.016 0.015 0.014 0.009 0.012 0.014 0.015 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.859 0.878 0.908 0.907 0.939 0.950 0.964 0.957 0.963 0.961 NSS 12.8 17.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.2 22.5 24.8 26.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 325. 378. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.437 0.329 0.276 0.317 0.347 SDEV 0.229 0.224 0.231 0.191 0.162 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.956 0.936 0.922 0.934 0.939 NSS 27.7 29.8 31.1 30.4 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 0.971 0.219 0.085 3.969 0.201 0.365 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.497 0.212 0.051 236 212 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.96 1.00 1.10 2.06 43.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.364 0.087 0.091 0.072 0.042 0.048 0.105 0.015 -0.024 -0.061 PACF 0.364 -0.053 0.089 0.014 0.011 0.030 0.084 -0.065 -0.012 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.094 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.135 0.365 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.368 0.088 0.062 0.068 0.045 0.095 0.125 -0.001 -0.035 -0.106 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.368 2 0.388 -0.055 3 0.391 -0.076 0.056 4 0.389 -0.073 0.042 0.035 5 0.388 -0.074 0.043 0.032 0.008 6 0.388 -0.077 0.039 0.038 -0.026 0.087 7 0.382 -0.075 0.036 0.035 -0.021 0.061 0.067 8 0.388 -0.069 0.035 0.038 -0.018 0.055 0.100 -0.087 9 0.387 -0.068 0.035 0.038 -0.017 0.055 0.099 -0.083 -0.012 10 0.385 -0.078 0.047 0.045 -0.019 0.060 0.103 -0.091 0.033 -0.116 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4184.85 4121.81 4122.48 4123.09 4124.56 4126.53 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4125.12 4125.11 4123.69 4125.63 4121.55 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.368 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.51 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 115.62 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.368 0.135 0.050 0.018 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 047011 1 0.358 0.580 2 047012 1 0.423 0.613 3 047021 1 0.315 0.561 4 047022 1 0.116 0.316 5 047031 1 0.066 0.234 6 047032 1 0.116 0.338 7 047041 1 0.156 0.354 8 047042 1 0.563 0.729 9 047051 1 0.244 0.485 10 047052 1 0.109 0.323 11 047061 1 0.152 0.383 12 047062 1 0.184 0.427 13 047071 1 0.274 0.518 14 047072 1 0.342 0.583 15 047081 1 0.025 0.105 16 047082 1 0.090 0.297 17 047091 1 0.126 0.290 18 047092 1 0.147 0.370 19 047101 1 0.147 0.380 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 047102 1 0.200 0.415 21 047111 1 0.228 0.451 22 047112 1 0.168 0.409 23 047121 1 0.226 0.463 24 047122 1 0.173 0.416 25 047131 1 0.213 0.448 26 047132 1 0.229 0.467 27 047141 1 0.147 0.375 28 047142 1 0.051 0.227 29 047151 1 0.214 0.462 30 047152 1 0.134 0.355 31 047161 1 0.011 0.102 32 047162 1 0.408 0.628 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.199 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.141 MEDIAN 1 0.171 0.412 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.115 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.011 0.102 LOWER HINGE 1 0.121 0.331 UPPER HINGE 1 0.236 0.476 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.563 0.729 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 1.001 0.418 1.694 9.775 0.447 -0.081 2 047012 1619 1994 376 1.001 0.379 0.455 3.799 0.449 -0.166 3 047021 1779 1994 216 1.002 0.447 1.280 6.536 0.465 -0.009 4 047022 1780 1994 215 1.000 0.456 1.966 10.663 0.441 -0.043 5 047031 1552 1938 387 1.000 0.286 0.938 6.345 0.310 -0.021 6 047032 1547 1932 386 1.000 0.237 -0.028 3.922 0.267 -0.014 7 047041 1570 1994 425 1.000 0.365 1.061 5.639 0.400 -0.067 8 047042 1589 1994 406 1.003 0.317 1.062 6.840 0.350 -0.136 9 047051 1598 1953 356 1.000 0.316 0.591 3.859 0.351 -0.053 10 047052 1575 1994 420 1.000 0.292 0.826 5.867 0.308 -0.020 11 047061 1570 1899 330 1.000 0.261 0.138 5.278 0.295 -0.032 12 047062 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.344 0.756 4.314 0.380 0.017 13 047071 1599 1994 396 1.000 0.301 0.753 6.125 0.340 -0.042 14 047072 1569 1994 426 1.000 0.339 1.466 10.401 0.372 -0.035 15 047081 1826 1994 169 1.000 0.374 2.114 12.186 0.357 0.012 16 047082 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.331 0.423 3.071 0.381 0.014 17 047091 1589 1994 406 1.000 0.326 0.732 5.532 0.366 -0.063 18 047092 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.315 0.048 3.997 0.379 -0.040 19 047101 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.296 0.646 5.540 0.334 -0.021 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 1.000 0.254 0.479 3.895 0.299 -0.076 21 047111 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.448 1.518 9.126 0.450 -0.079 22 047112 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.331 0.150 3.768 0.387 -0.012 23 047121 1637 1994 358 1.000 0.363 1.072 5.791 0.389 -0.057 24 047122 1592 1994 403 1.000 0.343 0.552 4.379 0.395 -0.008 25 047131 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.294 0.508 4.085 0.348 -0.054 26 047132 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.319 0.639 4.867 0.365 -0.053 27 047141 1586 1994 409 1.000 0.375 0.687 5.538 0.432 -0.033 28 047142 1583 1977 395 1.000 0.295 1.231 11.408 0.301 0.001 29 047151 1864 1994 131 1.000 0.342 1.130 6.590 0.387 -0.017 30 047152 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.318 1.038 4.973 0.340 0.035 31 047161 1879 1994 116 1.000 0.219 0.222 5.195 0.230 0.003 32 047162 1886 1994 109 1.000 0.263 1.180 5.931 0.271 0.089 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 307 1.000 0.330 0.854 6.101 0.362 -0.033 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.001 0.058 0.532 2.430 0.058 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 367 1.000 0.323 0.754 5.539 0.366 -0.033 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 188 0.000 0.070 0.661 2.363 0.070 0.047 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.219 -0.028 3.071 0.230 -0.166 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 215 1.000 0.295 0.494 4.199 0.322 -0.056 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 404 1.000 0.364 1.155 6.563 0.392 -0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 426 1.003 0.456 2.114 12.186 0.465 0.089 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 494 0.319 0.123 0.006 0.117 3.401 -0.143 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.143 SERIES 047032 AND 047161 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 047112 AND 047141 382 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.60 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 15. 105. 153. 171. 171. 190. 190. 190. 231. 300. RBAR 0.358 0.316 0.340 0.341 0.395 0.475 0.530 0.484 0.507 0.494 SDEV 0.109 0.156 0.164 0.156 0.137 0.149 0.201 0.206 0.231 0.227 SERR 0.028 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.877 0.889 0.906 0.909 0.928 0.948 0.958 0.955 0.962 0.962 NSS 12.8 17.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.2 22.5 24.8 26.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 325. 378. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.480 0.324 0.262 0.322 0.325 SDEV 0.197 0.179 0.170 0.157 0.141 SERR 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.962 0.935 0.917 0.935 0.933 NSS 27.7 29.8 31.1 30.4 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 0.983 0.204 -0.149 4.666 0.238 -0.016 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.392 0.158 0.074 228 220 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.09 2.10 119.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 -0.108 0.036 0.024 -0.013 0.003 0.115 -0.016 -0.010 -0.027 PACF -0.016 -0.108 0.033 0.013 -0.006 0.005 0.113 -0.012 0.014 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.094 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.013 -0.018 -0.109 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.108 0.035 0.024 -0.013 0.004 0.115 -0.014 -0.010 -0.028 PACF -0.002 -0.108 0.035 0.013 -0.006 0.007 0.113 -0.013 0.014 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 0.982 0.217 0.079 3.998 0.204 0.337 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.336 0.042 0.054 0.043 0.019 0.045 0.110 0.017 -0.022 -0.059 PACF 0.336 -0.080 0.075 0.003 0.005 0.042 0.089 -0.057 -0.006 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.094 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.124 0.370 -0.107 0.074 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.50 MINUTES