RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS138T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS138T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 047 1 Julietta north DENSITY_LATE LADA - 047 2 Russia Larch -999 6110-15358 1547 1994 - 047 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 047011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 5 GAPS / 1692 1692 / 1740 1740 / 1842 1842 / 1856 1856 / / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 047012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 6 GAPS / 1692 1692 / 1740 1740 / 1758 1781 / 1842 1842 / / 1855 1855 / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 047031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 3 GAPS / 1714 1747 / 1863 1863 / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 047032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 182 IN 3 GAPS / 1556 1556 / 1706 1885 / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 047041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 60 IN 6 GAPS / 1730 1733 / 1817 1818 / 1832 1832 / 1837 1837 / / 1862 1882 / 1903 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 047042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 5 GAPS / 1740 1740 / 1797 1797 / 1818 1818 / 1863 1864 / / 1926 1935 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 047051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 3 GAPS / 1785 1788 / 1797 1797 / 1811 1827 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 047052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 121 IN 1 GAPS / 1715 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 047061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 142 IN 3 GAPS / 1707 1707 / 1714 1714 / 1727 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 047062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1796 1802 / 1818 1818 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 047071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 61 IN 4 GAPS / 1707 1707 / 1728 1773 / 1812 1824 / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 047072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1707 1707 / 1733 1733 / 1863 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 047091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 33 IN 7 GAPS / 1733 1733 / 1797 1797 / 1818 1818 / 1856 1856 / / 1943 1969 / 1979 1979 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 047092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 145 IN 3 GAPS / 1707 1707 / 1726 1868 / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 047101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 047102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 047111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 047112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 174 IN 3 GAPS / 1721 1892 / 1912 1912 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 047122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 75 IN 2 GAPS / 1796 1869 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 047141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 177 IN 6 GAPS / 1733 1733 / 1740 1740 / 1756 1756 / 1758 1758 / / 1768 1768 / 1770 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 047142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 119 IN 4 GAPS / 1663 1710 / 1733 1733 / 1797 1865 / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 047161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 047162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 7.203 0.792 -0.713 3.819 0.098 0.311 2 047012 1619 1994 376 7.148 0.976 -0.760 3.381 0.093 0.587 3 047021 1779 1994 216 6.924 0.688 -0.926 4.671 0.083 0.439 4 047022 1780 1994 215 6.917 0.590 -1.459 7.713 0.075 0.288 5 047031 1552 1938 387 6.373 1.035 0.068 2.003 0.106 0.683 6 047032 1547 1932 386 6.720 0.835 -0.270 2.289 0.092 0.575 7 047041 1570 1994 425 6.384 1.069 -0.531 3.101 0.133 0.491 8 047042 1589 1994 406 6.161 1.060 0.070 2.929 0.143 0.461 9 047051 1598 1953 356 6.974 1.079 -0.607 2.839 0.116 0.563 10 047052 1575 1994 420 6.820 0.905 -0.535 2.915 0.117 0.378 11 047061 1570 1899 330 5.852 0.858 -0.128 2.408 0.117 0.514 12 047062 1771 1994 224 7.054 0.880 -1.085 4.448 0.109 0.347 13 047071 1599 1994 396 6.422 0.720 -0.595 3.016 0.083 0.558 14 047072 1569 1994 426 6.554 0.729 -0.565 3.322 0.083 0.549 15 047081 1826 1994 169 7.396 0.842 -1.240 4.639 0.090 0.499 16 047082 1771 1994 224 7.354 0.671 -0.931 4.637 0.084 0.361 17 047091 1589 1994 406 6.341 0.849 -0.375 2.824 0.131 0.289 18 047092 1590 1994 405 6.241 0.838 -0.053 2.664 0.114 0.455 19 047101 1849 1994 146 7.390 0.610 -0.367 2.797 0.069 0.414 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 7.362 0.738 -0.620 3.491 0.082 0.465 21 047111 1776 1994 219 7.549 0.747 -1.365 6.382 0.085 0.358 22 047112 1613 1994 382 6.926 1.027 -0.416 2.378 0.146 0.246 23 047121 1637 1994 358 6.899 0.905 -0.613 3.093 0.112 0.476 24 047122 1592 1994 403 6.732 0.792 -0.378 2.796 0.098 0.458 25 047131 1613 1994 382 6.989 0.843 -0.638 3.337 0.111 0.357 26 047132 1590 1994 405 7.458 0.808 -0.618 3.387 0.103 0.351 27 047141 1586 1994 409 7.243 1.028 -0.244 2.505 0.109 0.523 28 047142 1583 1977 395 6.422 0.899 0.037 2.705 0.104 0.577 29 047151 1864 1994 131 7.264 0.541 -0.133 2.838 0.061 0.527 30 047152 1880 1994 115 7.283 0.748 -0.978 4.061 0.080 0.554 31 047161 1879 1994 116 6.423 0.680 -0.045 3.262 0.090 0.452 32 047162 1886 1994 109 6.147 0.737 0.088 2.600 0.103 0.386 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1547 TO 1994 448 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 263 6.841 0.829 -0.529 3.414 0.101 0.453 STANDARD DEVIATION 95 0.457 0.145 0.420 1.192 0.021 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 246 6.921 0.836 -0.550 3.054 0.100 0.460 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 153 0.831 0.172 0.548 0.904 0.029 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 108 5.852 0.541 -1.459 2.003 0.061 0.246 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 196 6.422 0.733 -0.737 2.750 0.083 0.360 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 349 7.254 0.905 -0.188 3.655 0.113 0.538 MAXIMUM VALUE 423 7.549 1.079 0.088 7.713 0.146 0.683 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 494 0.468 0.135 0.006 -0.308 3.064 -0.039 0.803 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.039 SERIES 047032 AND 047162 47 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.803 SERIES 047031 AND 047141 353 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.60 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 15. 105. 153. 171. 171. 190. 190. 190. 231. 300. RBAR 0.569 0.522 0.556 0.607 0.605 0.699 0.666 0.478 0.636 0.716 SDEV 0.124 0.210 0.166 0.112 0.126 0.102 0.150 0.237 0.186 0.153 SERR 0.032 0.020 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.007 0.011 0.017 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.944 0.950 0.959 0.968 0.968 0.979 0.976 0.954 0.977 0.985 NSS 12.8 17.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.2 22.5 24.8 26.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 325. 378. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.645 0.582 0.434 0.508 0.484 SDEV 0.174 0.146 0.214 0.204 0.166 SERR 0.010 0.008 0.011 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.981 0.976 0.960 0.969 0.965 NSS 27.7 29.8 31.1 30.4 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 6.779 0.612 -0.781 4.193 0.085 0.289 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.063 -0.023 0.918 90 358 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.30 1.00 1.07 1.37 3.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 367. 188. 109. 216. 404. 426. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.288 0.121 0.117 0.138 0.152 0.133 0.186 0.041 0.084 0.145 PACF 0.288 0.042 0.079 0.089 0.090 0.058 0.125 -0.076 0.055 0.081 95% C.L. 0.094 0.102 0.103 0.104 0.106 0.108 0.109 0.112 0.112 0.113 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.086 0.290 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 047011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00142290 6.96036959 2 047012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041407 7.01950979 3 047021 1 1.31977630 0.05048170 0.00000000 6.80602598 4 047022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006713 6.91005182 5 047031 1 2.85707045 0.00473593 0.00000000 5.01022053 6 047032 1 7.20329046 0.00081347 0.00000000 0.22723259 7 047041 1 1.64153302 0.01335060 0.00000000 6.04460812 8 047042 1 2.79420304 0.02818981 0.00000000 5.92628956 9 047051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00451741 7.72459316 10 047052 1 1.44561434 0.00452616 0.00000000 6.06456709 11 047061 1 1.08051383 0.02638478 0.00000000 5.70595217 12 047062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00180211 7.24929714 13 047071 1 0.46122077 0.00544630 0.00000000 6.22400856 14 047072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079013 6.37343931 15 047081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00648836 6.84470224 16 047082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074458 7.27007437 17 047091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051961 6.23596334 18 047092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00128431 5.92559433 19 047101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214764 7.53647423 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 047102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00553180 6.87609005 21 047111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00359858 7.93665791 22 047112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014065 7.10190773 23 047121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00249441 7.34696484 24 047122 1 1.26287484 0.00657568 0.00000000 6.20540428 25 047131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00125891 7.22987700 26 047132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081427 7.62282705 27 047141 1 2.16768289 0.00919569 0.00000000 6.46439791 28 047142 1 4.88026619 0.00111822 0.00000000 2.44893003 29 047151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00348177 7.49369001 30 047152 1 0.53835464 0.03069923 0.00000000 7.13693666 31 047161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00584825 6.75334644 32 047162 1 1.16078699 0.06552146 0.00000000 5.98805141 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.112 -0.609 3.778 0.099 0.319 2 047012 1619 1994 376 1.000 0.138 -0.648 3.257 0.095 0.588 3 047021 1779 1994 216 1.000 0.093 -1.181 5.425 0.083 0.357 4 047022 1780 1994 215 1.000 0.085 -1.454 7.701 0.075 0.286 5 047031 1552 1938 387 1.000 0.121 -0.261 2.720 0.104 0.411 6 047032 1547 1932 386 1.000 0.087 -0.325 3.536 0.082 0.272 7 047041 1570 1994 425 1.000 0.154 -0.798 3.476 0.131 0.405 8 047042 1589 1994 406 1.000 0.156 -0.348 2.866 0.145 0.324 9 047051 1598 1953 356 1.000 0.145 -0.361 3.220 0.115 0.495 10 047052 1575 1994 420 1.000 0.120 -0.327 3.414 0.110 0.300 11 047061 1570 1899 330 1.000 0.125 -0.409 2.885 0.114 0.356 12 047062 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.126 -1.186 4.792 0.110 0.352 13 047071 1599 1994 396 1.000 0.109 -0.595 3.091 0.085 0.507 14 047072 1569 1994 426 1.000 0.112 -0.616 3.422 0.084 0.572 15 047081 1826 1994 169 1.000 0.108 -0.963 4.309 0.090 0.409 16 047082 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.091 -0.909 4.664 0.083 0.356 17 047091 1589 1994 406 1.000 0.135 -0.428 2.976 0.131 0.333 18 047092 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.121 -0.157 3.408 0.110 0.369 19 047101 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.083 -0.497 2.973 0.071 0.370 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 1.000 0.096 -0.257 3.086 0.084 0.367 21 047111 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.096 -1.337 6.768 0.085 0.310 22 047112 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.143 -0.548 2.948 0.137 0.301 23 047121 1637 1994 358 1.000 0.127 -0.498 3.139 0.111 0.431 24 047122 1592 1994 403 1.000 0.107 -0.358 2.819 0.096 0.353 25 047131 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.119 -0.645 3.269 0.111 0.337 26 047132 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.108 -0.640 3.406 0.102 0.339 27 047141 1586 1994 409 1.000 0.102 -0.758 3.528 0.099 0.232 28 047142 1583 1977 395 1.000 0.109 -0.101 3.229 0.101 0.345 29 047151 1864 1994 131 1.000 0.072 -0.182 3.005 0.060 0.487 30 047152 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.102 -0.886 3.961 0.080 0.533 31 047161 1879 1994 116 1.000 0.103 -0.155 3.326 0.091 0.387 32 047162 1886 1994 109 1.000 0.112 -0.060 2.392 0.102 0.268 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 307 1.000 0.113 -0.578 3.650 0.099 0.377 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.021 0.363 1.140 0.019 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 367 1.000 0.111 -0.523 3.297 0.099 0.356 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 188 0.000 0.027 0.452 0.666 0.026 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.072 -1.454 2.392 0.060 0.232 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 215 1.000 0.099 -0.778 2.991 0.084 0.322 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 404 1.000 0.126 -0.326 3.657 0.110 0.410 MAXIMUM VALUE 426 1.000 0.156 -0.060 7.701 0.145 0.588 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 047011 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 047012 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 047021 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 047022 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 047031 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 047032 -67 258 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 047041 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 047042 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 047051 -67 238 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 047052 -67 281 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 047061 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 047062 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 047071 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 047072 -67 285 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 047081 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 047082 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 047091 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 047092 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 047101 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 047102 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 047111 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 047112 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 047121 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 047122 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 047131 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 047132 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 047141 -67 274 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 047142 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 047151 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 047152 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 047161 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 047162 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.109 -0.645 3.852 0.099 0.284 2 047012 1619 1994 376 0.999 0.117 -0.791 3.899 0.095 0.406 3 047021 1779 1994 216 1.000 0.092 -1.215 5.515 0.083 0.337 4 047022 1780 1994 215 1.000 0.084 -1.530 8.187 0.075 0.266 5 047031 1552 1938 387 0.999 0.109 -0.319 2.982 0.104 0.269 6 047032 1547 1932 386 1.000 0.083 -0.459 3.413 0.082 0.212 7 047041 1570 1994 425 0.999 0.140 -0.869 4.134 0.131 0.252 8 047042 1589 1994 406 0.999 0.150 -0.443 2.870 0.145 0.270 9 047051 1598 1953 356 0.999 0.137 -0.414 3.427 0.115 0.431 10 047052 1575 1994 420 1.000 0.115 -0.445 3.531 0.110 0.253 11 047061 1570 1899 330 1.000 0.121 -0.290 2.972 0.114 0.311 12 047062 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.119 -1.467 5.479 0.110 0.272 13 047071 1599 1994 396 1.000 0.104 -0.471 3.030 0.085 0.462 14 047072 1569 1994 426 1.000 0.109 -0.611 3.525 0.084 0.540 15 047081 1826 1994 169 1.000 0.105 -0.914 4.526 0.090 0.366 16 047082 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.083 -0.987 5.028 0.083 0.221 17 047091 1589 1994 406 1.000 0.129 -0.428 2.975 0.131 0.257 18 047092 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.119 -0.251 3.361 0.110 0.356 19 047101 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.079 -0.354 3.122 0.071 0.282 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 1.000 0.089 -0.229 3.111 0.084 0.262 21 047111 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.095 -1.357 6.743 0.085 0.299 22 047112 1613 1994 382 0.999 0.134 -0.731 3.125 0.137 0.198 23 047121 1637 1994 358 1.000 0.124 -0.613 3.294 0.111 0.401 24 047122 1592 1994 403 1.000 0.101 -0.477 2.852 0.096 0.284 25 047131 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.115 -0.726 3.536 0.111 0.292 26 047132 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.103 -0.726 3.649 0.102 0.291 27 047141 1586 1994 409 1.000 0.100 -0.763 3.563 0.099 0.194 28 047142 1583 1977 395 1.000 0.109 -0.119 3.238 0.101 0.336 29 047151 1864 1994 131 1.000 0.066 -0.255 3.242 0.060 0.392 30 047152 1880 1994 115 0.999 0.089 -0.626 4.176 0.080 0.376 31 047161 1879 1994 116 1.000 0.098 -0.132 3.206 0.091 0.322 32 047162 1886 1994 109 1.000 0.110 -0.003 2.521 0.102 0.242 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 307 1.000 0.107 -0.614 3.815 0.099 0.310 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.019 0.385 1.210 0.020 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 367 1.000 0.109 -0.544 3.420 0.099 0.288 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 188 0.000 0.026 0.441 0.900 0.026 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.066 -1.530 2.521 0.060 0.194 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 215 1.000 0.093 -0.777 3.117 0.084 0.260 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 404 1.000 0.119 -0.336 4.017 0.110 0.361 MAXIMUM VALUE 426 1.000 0.150 -0.003 8.187 0.145 0.540 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 494 0.504 0.116 0.005 -0.533 3.580 0.013 0.814 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 047012 AND 047151 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.814 SERIES 047112 AND 047141 382 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.60 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 15. 105. 153. 171. 171. 190. 190. 190. 231. 300. RBAR 0.603 0.540 0.560 0.605 0.620 0.699 0.679 0.491 0.643 0.723 SDEV 0.104 0.205 0.151 0.112 0.116 0.102 0.147 0.235 0.184 0.151 SERR 0.027 0.020 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.007 0.011 0.017 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.951 0.953 0.960 0.967 0.970 0.979 0.977 0.956 0.978 0.985 NSS 12.8 17.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.2 22.5 24.8 26.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 325. 378. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.656 0.571 0.444 0.510 0.481 SDEV 0.165 0.145 0.209 0.195 0.160 SERR 0.009 0.007 0.011 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.981 0.975 0.961 0.969 0.964 NSS 27.7 29.8 31.1 30.4 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 0.998 0.085 -0.887 4.332 0.084 0.208 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.167 -0.050 0.123 209 239 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.48 1.00 1.06 1.55 6.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.208 0.018 0.018 0.031 0.045 0.019 0.074 -0.070 -0.032 0.044 PACF 0.208 -0.026 0.021 0.025 0.035 0.003 0.073 -0.107 0.005 0.047 95% C.L. 0.094 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.044 0.209 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.219 0.003 0.003 0.005 0.028 0.020 0.093 -0.061 -0.071 -0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.219 2 0.230 -0.047 3 0.230 -0.050 0.013 4 0.230 -0.050 0.013 0.002 5 0.230 -0.051 0.014 -0.004 0.028 6 0.230 -0.051 0.014 -0.004 0.026 0.008 7 0.229 -0.053 0.015 -0.005 0.031 -0.014 0.092 8 0.239 -0.055 0.018 -0.006 0.032 -0.019 0.117 -0.108 9 0.236 -0.051 0.017 -0.005 0.032 -0.019 0.116 -0.101 -0.030 10 0.237 -0.049 0.016 -0.005 0.032 -0.019 0.115 -0.100 -0.034 0.015 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3309.13 3289.02 3290.01 3291.93 3293.93 3295.58 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3297.55 3295.71 3292.43 3294.03 3295.92 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.219 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.82 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.06 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.219 0.048 0.011 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 047011 1 0.082 0.285 2 047012 1 0.169 0.406 3 047021 1 0.114 0.338 4 047022 1 0.081 0.266 5 047031 1 0.103 0.272 6 047032 1 0.047 0.216 7 047041 1 0.065 0.254 8 047042 1 0.075 0.270 9 047051 1 0.197 0.431 10 047052 1 0.072 0.253 11 047061 1 0.098 0.312 12 047062 1 0.075 0.273 13 047071 1 0.219 0.464 14 047072 1 0.300 0.541 15 047081 1 0.137 0.370 16 047082 1 0.051 0.221 17 047091 1 0.067 0.257 18 047092 1 0.142 0.357 19 047101 1 0.082 0.284 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 047102 1 0.101 0.263 21 047111 1 0.090 0.300 22 047112 1 0.042 0.198 23 047121 1 0.167 0.402 24 047122 1 0.081 0.285 25 047131 1 0.087 0.294 26 047132 1 0.087 0.292 27 047141 1 0.040 0.195 28 047142 1 0.118 0.336 29 047151 1 0.157 0.396 30 047152 1 0.144 0.376 31 047161 1 0.124 0.323 32 047162 1 0.059 0.243 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.108 0.312 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.057 0.079 MEDIAN 1 0.089 0.289 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.066 0.103 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.040 0.195 LOWER HINGE 1 0.074 0.260 UPPER HINGE 1 0.139 0.363 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.300 0.541 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 047011 1680 1994 315 1.000 0.105 -0.667 4.035 0.111 0.004 2 047012 1619 1994 376 1.000 0.107 -0.684 4.183 0.115 -0.027 3 047021 1779 1994 216 1.000 0.086 -1.152 5.418 0.095 0.002 4 047022 1780 1994 215 1.000 0.081 -1.670 9.063 0.084 -0.028 5 047031 1552 1938 387 1.000 0.105 -0.356 3.228 0.119 -0.051 6 047032 1547 1932 386 1.000 0.081 -0.524 3.479 0.091 0.000 7 047041 1570 1994 425 1.000 0.136 -0.895 4.567 0.147 -0.009 8 047042 1589 1994 406 1.000 0.145 -0.535 2.987 0.164 -0.014 9 047051 1598 1953 356 1.000 0.123 -0.809 4.043 0.138 -0.051 10 047052 1575 1994 420 1.000 0.112 -0.569 3.752 0.123 -0.023 11 047061 1570 1899 330 1.000 0.115 -0.296 3.247 0.130 -0.005 12 047062 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.115 -1.574 5.828 0.122 0.008 13 047071 1599 1994 396 1.000 0.092 -0.635 4.284 0.103 -0.033 14 047072 1569 1994 426 1.000 0.091 -0.673 4.383 0.105 -0.054 15 047081 1826 1994 169 1.000 0.097 -0.841 4.293 0.104 -0.011 16 047082 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.081 -0.976 4.582 0.091 -0.010 17 047091 1589 1994 406 1.000 0.125 -0.515 3.182 0.148 -0.009 18 047092 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.111 -0.439 3.363 0.131 -0.045 19 047101 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.075 -0.228 4.179 0.080 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 047102 1824 1994 171 1.000 0.086 -0.291 3.555 0.095 -0.048 21 047111 1776 1994 219 1.000 0.091 -1.557 7.381 0.095 0.007 22 047112 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.132 -0.779 3.323 0.151 -0.010 23 047121 1637 1994 358 1.000 0.113 -0.658 3.471 0.131 -0.030 24 047122 1592 1994 403 1.000 0.097 -0.506 3.070 0.109 -0.001 25 047131 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.110 -0.797 3.732 0.125 -0.003 26 047132 1590 1994 405 1.000 0.099 -0.826 3.684 0.116 -0.008 27 047141 1586 1994 409 1.000 0.098 -0.816 3.750 0.107 0.008 28 047142 1583 1977 395 1.000 0.102 -0.162 3.327 0.117 -0.025 29 047151 1864 1994 131 1.000 0.060 -0.302 3.473 0.070 -0.001 30 047152 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.082 -0.628 3.887 0.094 0.020 31 047161 1879 1994 116 1.000 0.093 -0.328 3.522 0.105 0.047 32 047162 1886 1994 109 1.000 0.107 -0.075 2.787 0.112 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 307 1.000 0.102 -0.680 4.096 0.113 -0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 112 0.000 0.019 0.389 1.286 0.022 0.022 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 367 1.000 0.101 -0.647 3.741 0.112 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 188 0.000 0.024 0.423 0.943 0.032 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.060 -1.670 2.787 0.070 -0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 215 1.000 0.089 -0.821 3.345 0.095 -0.027 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 404 1.000 0.113 -0.398 4.288 0.127 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 426 1.000 0.145 -0.075 9.063 0.164 0.047 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 494 0.540 0.115 0.005 -0.944 5.347 -0.049 0.828 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.049 SERIES 047061 AND 047151 36 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.828 SERIES 047112 AND 047141 382 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.60 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 15. 105. 153. 171. 171. 190. 190. 190. 231. 300. RBAR 0.621 0.616 0.604 0.616 0.640 0.718 0.705 0.537 0.656 0.738 SDEV 0.082 0.166 0.143 0.106 0.110 0.092 0.130 0.212 0.170 0.133 SERR 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.009 0.015 0.011 0.008 EPS 0.954 0.965 0.966 0.969 0.973 0.981 0.980 0.963 0.979 0.987 NSS 12.8 17.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.2 22.5 24.8 26.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 325. 378. 378. 406. 378. RBAR 0.693 0.580 0.463 0.546 0.515 SDEV 0.140 0.140 0.193 0.178 0.143 SERR 0.008 0.007 0.010 0.009 0.007 EPS 0.984 0.976 0.964 0.973 0.969 NSS 27.7 29.8 31.1 30.4 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 0.999 0.082 -0.998 4.588 0.096 -0.079 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.183 -0.051 0.115 215 233 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.50 1.00 1.08 1.58 6.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.079 -0.051 -0.002 0.013 0.041 -0.017 0.101 -0.088 -0.021 0.075 PACF -0.079 -0.058 -0.011 0.009 0.042 -0.009 0.104 -0.073 -0.024 0.063 95% C.L. 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.080 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.058 -0.005 0.016 0.041 -0.006 0.093 -0.082 -0.023 0.069 PACF -0.004 -0.058 -0.005 0.012 0.041 -0.004 0.099 -0.083 -0.013 0.059 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1547 1994 448 0.999 0.084 -0.918 4.410 0.084 0.204 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.203 -0.011 -0.002 0.024 0.047 0.021 0.076 -0.065 -0.025 0.042 PACF 0.203 -0.054 0.012 0.023 0.039 0.005 0.077 -0.101 0.014 0.039 95% C.L. 0.094 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.045 0.205 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.46 MINUTES