RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS140N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS140N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 057 1 Kirisky Pass (Altai) DENSITY_MINIMUM LASI - 057 2 Russia Siberian larch 1500 5039-8459 1741 1994 - 057 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 057011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 4 GAPS / 1917 1918 / 1943 1943 / 1947 1947 / 1960 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 057012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1890 1890 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 057021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1760 1764 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 057031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 4 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1890 1894 / 1917 1917 / 1932 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 057032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 3 GAPS / 1890 1890 / 1893 1893 / 1914 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 057041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1890 1890 / 1917 1917 / 1952 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 057042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1850 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 057051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1873 1873 / 1890 1890 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 057052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 2 GAPS / 1900 1932 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 057061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1890 1890 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 057062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 4 GAPS / 1767 1768 / 1850 1850 / 1890 1890 / 1919 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 057071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 4 GAPS / 1835 1840 / 1850 1850 / 1890 1891 / 1909 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 057072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 51 IN 7 GAPS / 1836 1840 / 1850 1851 / 1884 1884 / 1890 1918 / / 1948 1952 / 1960 1963 / 1984 1988 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 057082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 6 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1791 1792 / 1850 1850 / 1884 1884 / / 1890 1890 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 057091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 5 GAPS / 1792 1793 / 1823 1824 / 1850 1850 / 1890 1891 / / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 057092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 6 GAPS / 1782 1786 / 1850 1850 / 1890 1891 / 1917 1917 / / 1924 1925 / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 057101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 8 GAPS / 1795 1799 / 1850 1850 / 1852 1852 / 1854 1854 / / 1865 1865 / 1891 1894 / 1910 1916 / 1959 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 057102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 81 IN 6 GAPS / 1809 1811 / 1850 1850 / 1854 1854 / 1869 1869 / / 1871 1871 / 1887 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 057111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 26 IN 5 GAPS / 1754 1758 / 1845 1845 / 1849 1854 / 1895 1900 / / 1909 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 057112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 7 GAPS / 1753 1757 / 1845 1845 / 1850 1850 / 1852 1852 / / 1890 1892 / 1914 1916 / 1986 1986 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 057121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 5 GAPS / 1746 1750 / 1849 1853 / 1906 1915 / 1958 1958 / / 1989 1989 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 057122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 8 GAPS / 1850 1850 / 1852 1852 / 1854 1854 / 1859 1859 / / 1889 1894 / 1911 1915 / 1958 1958 / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 057131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 56 IN 5 GAPS / 1820 1831 / 1849 1878 / 1890 1895 / 1949 1954 / / 1972 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 057132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1778 / 1890 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 057141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1843 1843 / 1891 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 057142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1890 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 057151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1830 1834 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 0.238 0.042 1.697 11.563 0.122 0.340 2 057012 1742 1907 166 0.236 0.028 0.066 3.004 0.098 0.357 3 057021 1741 1994 254 0.257 0.027 0.673 4.183 0.077 0.477 4 057022 1746 1994 249 0.247 0.034 0.218 3.059 0.075 0.723 5 057031 1772 1994 223 0.240 0.037 1.111 4.863 0.092 0.590 6 057032 1787 1994 208 0.249 0.038 1.217 6.987 0.096 0.446 7 057041 1742 1994 253 0.282 0.034 0.308 3.305 0.085 0.513 8 057042 1741 1881 141 0.282 0.034 0.475 5.466 0.096 0.154 9 057051 1755 1994 240 0.237 0.033 0.538 2.710 0.075 0.738 10 057052 1767 1994 228 0.250 0.032 0.829 5.311 0.076 0.657 11 057061 1790 1984 195 0.237 0.031 0.167 2.595 0.082 0.655 12 057062 1754 1994 241 0.240 0.034 1.490 9.886 0.093 0.397 13 057071 1762 1994 233 0.234 0.037 1.196 5.399 0.095 0.524 14 057072 1765 1994 230 0.231 0.032 0.957 4.188 0.083 0.613 15 057081 1752 1994 243 0.227 0.037 2.190 14.799 0.108 0.316 16 057082 1761 1994 234 0.224 0.032 0.361 3.836 0.094 0.567 17 057091 1754 1994 241 0.237 0.034 1.389 9.859 0.092 0.461 18 057092 1745 1994 250 0.236 0.049 1.411 6.872 0.098 0.631 19 057101 1759 1977 219 0.214 0.036 1.448 7.736 0.107 0.382 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 0.228 0.036 1.045 7.593 0.113 0.327 21 057111 1743 1992 250 0.229 0.029 1.911 10.669 0.103 0.181 22 057112 1744 1994 251 0.242 0.057 4.445 31.287 0.127 0.071 23 057121 1741 1994 254 0.246 0.044 1.895 9.099 0.135 0.092 24 057122 1757 1994 238 0.235 0.045 2.550 12.742 0.129 0.058 25 057131 1760 1983 224 0.251 0.031 0.112 3.409 0.082 0.612 26 057132 1761 1994 234 0.226 0.033 1.208 4.601 0.079 0.603 27 057141 1763 1994 232 0.232 0.029 2.727 17.367 0.090 0.058 28 057142 1767 1994 228 0.224 0.029 -0.765 7.687 0.095 0.509 29 057151 1759 1994 236 0.225 0.036 0.388 2.195 0.071 0.824 30 057152 1760 1994 235 0.232 0.031 0.161 2.757 0.073 0.749 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1741 TO 1994 254 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 215 0.239 0.035 1.114 7.501 0.095 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.015 0.007 1.017 5.934 0.017 0.222 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 226 0.237 0.034 1.078 5.432 0.094 0.493 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 0.017 0.006 1.129 6.449 0.021 0.286 MINIMUM VALUE 139 0.214 0.027 -0.765 2.195 0.071 0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 197 0.229 0.031 0.361 3.409 0.082 0.327 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 234 0.246 0.037 1.490 9.859 0.103 0.613 MAXIMUM VALUE 249 0.282 0.057 4.445 31.287 0.135 0.824 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.444 0.143 0.007 -0.781 3.629 -0.080 0.739 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.080 SERIES 057111 AND 057151 234 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.739 SERIES 057031 AND 057032 208 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1766. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 378. 435. 435. 406. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.390 0.283 0.237 0.379 0.434 0.333 0.252 0.239 SDEV 0.087 0.189 0.188 0.205 0.180 0.174 0.198 0.166 SERR 0.050 0.010 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.928 0.921 0.903 0.948 0.958 0.935 0.904 0.898 NSS 20.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.8 28.2 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 0.239 0.027 0.687 3.774 0.055 0.709 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.584 0.153 -0.009 112 142 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.91 1.00 1.08 1.98 7.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.62 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 234. 19. 141. 224. 243. 254. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.706 0.695 0.656 0.685 0.658 0.619 0.597 0.607 0.613 0.567 PACF 0.706 0.391 0.190 0.251 0.123 0.010 0.015 0.076 0.091 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.125 0.177 0.216 0.245 0.274 0.298 0.317 0.335 0.351 0.368 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.685 0.162 0.209 0.103 0.260 0.201 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 057011 1 0.13247968 0.00462289 0.00000000 0.15602644 2 057012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030184 0.26224488 3 057021 1 0.07156607 0.00967161 0.00000000 0.23103026 4 057022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038729 0.29568046 5 057031 1 0.10353775 0.01662554 0.00000000 0.21343875 6 057032 1 0.09796751 0.00899957 0.00000000 0.20467025 7 057041 1 0.10556231 0.00490065 0.00000000 0.22204535 8 057042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035211 0.30803549 9 057051 1 0.09719469 0.02144696 0.00000000 0.21910724 10 057052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025049 0.27620366 11 057061 1 0.08137007 0.01271551 0.00000000 0.20834930 12 057062 1 0.09136368 0.00519097 0.00000000 0.18865906 13 057071 1 0.09925301 0.03708500 0.00000000 0.22164704 14 057072 1 0.08767441 0.02467800 0.00000000 0.21257895 15 057081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030422 0.26390469 16 057082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035907 0.26742637 17 057091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032560 0.27746353 18 057092 1 0.15830450 0.00625582 0.00000000 0.15709625 19 057101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027030 0.24374233 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 057102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030252 0.25472936 21 057111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002121 0.22603951 22 057112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016444 0.26476762 23 057121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020656 0.27189019 24 057122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011161 0.25002959 25 057131 1 0.05796808 0.01112165 0.00000000 0.22661144 26 057132 1 0.10731123 0.02106442 0.00000000 0.20569126 27 057141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011611 0.24562623 28 057142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021660 0.24891664 29 057151 1 0.12977512 0.00720053 0.00000000 0.16346736 30 057152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037447 0.27593234 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.151 2.795 17.471 0.129 0.009 2 057012 1742 1907 166 1.000 0.104 0.675 4.416 0.103 0.050 3 057021 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.078 0.273 4.126 0.076 0.137 4 057022 1746 1994 249 1.000 0.078 0.933 8.275 0.075 0.129 5 057031 1772 1994 223 1.000 0.113 2.090 10.786 0.099 0.064 6 057032 1787 1994 208 1.000 0.125 2.675 17.143 0.098 0.095 7 057041 1742 1994 253 1.000 0.095 0.947 7.597 0.088 0.127 8 057042 1741 1881 141 1.000 0.116 1.691 9.793 0.101 -0.063 9 057051 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.097 0.280 3.781 0.079 0.383 10 057052 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.103 1.451 8.997 0.075 0.503 11 057061 1790 1984 195 1.000 0.108 0.891 5.550 0.086 0.365 12 057062 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.125 2.196 14.918 0.096 0.192 13 057071 1762 1994 233 1.000 0.141 2.360 12.478 0.099 0.296 14 057072 1765 1994 230 1.000 0.099 1.252 7.123 0.085 0.234 15 057081 1752 1994 243 1.000 0.137 4.134 30.090 0.108 -0.020 16 057082 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.101 2.017 10.046 0.095 -0.010 17 057091 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.109 1.754 9.402 0.096 0.085 18 057092 1745 1994 250 1.000 0.142 3.090 23.136 0.100 0.205 19 057101 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.158 2.106 10.569 0.116 0.309 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 1.000 0.142 1.854 9.643 0.115 0.260 21 057111 1743 1992 250 1.000 0.129 1.790 9.588 0.107 0.146 22 057112 1744 1994 251 1.000 0.244 4.378 27.836 0.139 0.165 23 057121 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.177 2.622 12.634 0.143 -0.016 24 057122 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.193 2.708 13.302 0.142 0.042 25 057131 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.107 0.127 3.965 0.086 0.412 26 057132 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.104 2.024 11.560 0.081 0.178 27 057141 1763 1994 232 1.000 0.119 2.961 18.459 0.090 0.002 28 057142 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.114 -1.329 12.992 0.097 0.344 29 057151 1759 1994 236 1.000 0.088 0.398 3.454 0.070 0.419 30 057152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.078 0.079 4.108 0.074 0.266 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 229 1.000 0.123 1.707 11.441 0.098 0.177 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.036 1.246 6.766 0.020 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.114 1.822 9.919 0.096 0.156 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.040 1.731 6.179 0.021 0.247 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.078 -1.329 3.454 0.070 -0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.101 0.891 7.123 0.085 0.050 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.141 2.622 13.302 0.107 0.296 MAXIMUM VALUE 254 1.000 0.244 4.378 30.090 0.143 0.503 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 057011 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 057012 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 057021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 057022 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 057031 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 057032 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 057041 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 057042 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 057051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 057052 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 057061 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 057062 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 057071 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 057072 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 057081 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 057082 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 057091 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 057092 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 057101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 057102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 057111 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 057112 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 057121 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 057122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 057131 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 057132 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 057141 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 057142 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 057151 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 057152 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.149 2.877 19.142 0.129 -0.020 2 057012 1742 1907 166 1.000 0.099 0.644 4.325 0.103 -0.034 3 057021 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.075 0.392 4.498 0.076 0.057 4 057022 1746 1994 249 1.000 0.077 0.861 7.715 0.075 0.110 5 057031 1772 1994 223 1.000 0.112 2.087 10.963 0.099 0.051 6 057032 1787 1994 208 1.000 0.124 2.676 16.725 0.098 0.084 7 057041 1742 1994 253 1.000 0.094 1.060 8.282 0.088 0.102 8 057042 1741 1881 141 1.000 0.114 1.723 10.129 0.101 -0.092 9 057051 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.091 0.252 3.753 0.079 0.302 10 057052 1767 1994 228 0.999 0.090 1.122 8.396 0.075 0.371 11 057061 1790 1984 195 1.000 0.103 0.920 6.173 0.086 0.316 12 057062 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.124 2.250 15.738 0.096 0.172 13 057071 1762 1994 233 0.999 0.133 2.605 14.027 0.099 0.225 14 057072 1765 1994 230 1.000 0.093 1.249 7.138 0.085 0.136 15 057081 1752 1994 243 1.000 0.136 4.044 29.190 0.108 -0.033 16 057082 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.099 1.946 9.419 0.095 -0.051 17 057091 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.106 1.912 10.093 0.096 0.042 18 057092 1745 1994 250 0.999 0.132 3.095 22.304 0.100 0.111 19 057101 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.152 2.042 10.091 0.116 0.266 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 1.000 0.130 1.774 9.233 0.115 0.128 21 057111 1743 1992 250 1.000 0.125 1.830 9.974 0.107 0.098 22 057112 1744 1994 251 1.000 0.228 4.035 24.356 0.139 0.115 23 057121 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.175 2.587 12.404 0.143 -0.031 24 057122 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.187 2.686 12.723 0.142 -0.011 25 057131 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.102 0.175 4.449 0.086 0.357 26 057132 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.099 1.912 11.599 0.082 0.111 27 057141 1763 1994 232 1.000 0.115 2.878 18.818 0.090 -0.044 28 057142 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.110 -1.511 14.159 0.097 0.283 29 057151 1759 1994 236 1.000 0.083 0.473 3.695 0.070 0.359 30 057152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.077 0.068 4.140 0.074 0.249 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 229 1.000 0.118 1.689 11.455 0.098 0.124 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.034 1.231 6.414 0.020 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.111 1.871 10.092 0.097 0.110 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.039 1.744 7.021 0.021 0.260 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.999 0.075 -1.511 3.695 0.070 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.094 0.861 7.138 0.085 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.132 2.605 14.159 0.107 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 254 1.000 0.228 4.044 29.190 0.143 0.371 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.281 0.119 0.006 0.030 2.807 -0.032 0.613 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.032 SERIES 057052 AND 057122 228 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.613 SERIES 057031 AND 057032 208 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1766. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 378. 435. 435. 406. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.345 0.220 0.192 0.398 0.413 0.301 0.288 0.190 SDEV 0.096 0.184 0.175 0.198 0.185 0.177 0.194 0.169 SERR 0.056 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.914 0.892 0.877 0.952 0.954 0.925 0.919 0.868 NSS 20.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.8 28.2 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 0.994 0.060 2.737 20.802 0.054 -0.016 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.571 0.253 -0.171 131 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.27 1.00 1.12 2.39 999.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.73 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 0.037 -0.039 0.114 0.020 -0.046 -0.077 0.021 0.079 -0.033 PACF -0.016 0.037 -0.038 0.112 0.026 -0.055 -0.072 0.012 0.079 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.032 -0.020 -0.085 0.137 0.012 -0.104 -0.091 0.048 0.130 -0.019 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.032 2 -0.033 -0.021 3 -0.035 -0.024 -0.087 4 -0.023 -0.021 -0.082 0.132 5 -0.025 -0.019 -0.082 0.132 0.016 6 -0.024 -0.005 -0.091 0.130 0.013 -0.108 7 -0.032 -0.004 -0.081 0.123 0.013 -0.109 -0.076 8 -0.030 -0.001 -0.081 0.120 0.015 -0.109 -0.075 0.027 9 -0.033 0.007 -0.069 0.118 0.002 -0.100 -0.075 0.030 0.114 10 -0.033 0.007 -0.069 0.118 0.002 -0.100 -0.075 0.030 0.114 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1715.41 1717.15 1719.04 1719.11 1716.66 1718.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1717.64 1718.16 1719.98 1718.64 1720.64 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 057011 0 0.000 2 057012 0 0.001 3 057021 0 0.003 4 057022 0 0.012 5 057031 0 0.003 6 057032 0 0.007 7 057041 0 0.010 8 057042 0 0.009 9 057051 0 0.092 10 057052 0 0.138 11 057061 0 0.101 12 057062 0 0.029 13 057071 0 0.051 14 057072 0 0.019 15 057081 0 0.001 16 057082 0 0.003 17 057091 0 0.002 18 057092 0 0.012 19 057101 0 0.071 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 057102 0 0.016 21 057111 0 0.010 22 057112 0 0.013 23 057121 0 0.001 24 057122 0 0.000 25 057131 0 0.127 26 057132 0 0.012 27 057141 0 0.002 28 057142 0 0.080 29 057151 0 0.130 30 057152 0 0.062 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.044 MEDIAN 0 0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.003 UPPER HINGE 0 0.062 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.138 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.149 2.877 19.142 0.129 -0.020 2 057012 1742 1907 166 1.000 0.099 0.644 4.325 0.103 -0.034 3 057021 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.075 0.392 4.498 0.076 0.057 4 057022 1746 1994 249 1.000 0.077 0.861 7.715 0.075 0.110 5 057031 1772 1994 223 1.000 0.112 2.087 10.963 0.099 0.051 6 057032 1787 1994 208 1.000 0.124 2.676 16.725 0.098 0.084 7 057041 1742 1994 253 1.000 0.094 1.060 8.282 0.088 0.102 8 057042 1741 1881 141 1.000 0.114 1.723 10.129 0.101 -0.092 9 057051 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.091 0.252 3.753 0.079 0.302 10 057052 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.090 1.122 8.396 0.075 0.371 11 057061 1790 1984 195 1.000 0.103 0.920 6.173 0.086 0.316 12 057062 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.124 2.250 15.738 0.096 0.172 13 057071 1762 1994 233 1.000 0.133 2.605 14.027 0.099 0.225 14 057072 1765 1994 230 1.000 0.093 1.249 7.138 0.085 0.136 15 057081 1752 1994 243 1.000 0.136 4.044 29.190 0.108 -0.033 16 057082 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.099 1.946 9.419 0.095 -0.051 17 057091 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.106 1.912 10.093 0.096 0.042 18 057092 1745 1994 250 1.000 0.132 3.095 22.304 0.100 0.111 19 057101 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.152 2.042 10.091 0.116 0.266 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 1.000 0.130 1.774 9.233 0.115 0.128 21 057111 1743 1992 250 1.000 0.125 1.830 9.974 0.107 0.098 22 057112 1744 1994 251 1.000 0.228 4.035 24.356 0.139 0.115 23 057121 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.175 2.587 12.404 0.143 -0.031 24 057122 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.187 2.686 12.723 0.142 -0.011 25 057131 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.102 0.175 4.449 0.086 0.357 26 057132 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.099 1.912 11.599 0.081 0.111 27 057141 1763 1994 232 1.000 0.115 2.878 18.818 0.090 -0.044 28 057142 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.110 -1.511 14.159 0.097 0.283 29 057151 1759 1994 236 1.000 0.083 0.473 3.695 0.070 0.359 30 057152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.077 0.068 4.140 0.074 0.249 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 229 1.000 0.118 1.689 11.455 0.098 0.124 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.034 1.231 6.414 0.020 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.111 1.871 10.092 0.097 0.110 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.039 1.744 7.021 0.021 0.260 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.075 -1.511 3.695 0.070 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.094 0.861 7.138 0.085 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.132 2.605 14.159 0.107 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 254 1.000 0.228 4.044 29.190 0.143 0.371 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.281 0.119 0.006 0.030 2.807 -0.032 0.613 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.032 SERIES 057052 AND 057122 228 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.613 SERIES 057031 AND 057032 208 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1766. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 378. 435. 435. 406. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.345 0.220 0.192 0.398 0.413 0.301 0.288 0.190 SDEV 0.096 0.184 0.175 0.198 0.185 0.177 0.194 0.169 SERR 0.056 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.914 0.892 0.877 0.952 0.954 0.925 0.919 0.868 NSS 20.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.8 28.2 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 0.994 0.060 2.738 20.814 0.054 -0.016 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.572 0.253 -0.171 131 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.26 1.00 1.12 2.38 898.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.73 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 0.037 -0.039 0.114 0.020 -0.046 -0.077 0.021 0.080 -0.033 PACF -0.016 0.037 -0.038 0.112 0.026 -0.056 -0.072 0.012 0.079 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 0.994 0.060 2.738 20.814 0.054 -0.016 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 0.037 -0.039 0.114 0.020 -0.046 -0.077 0.021 0.080 -0.033 PACF -0.016 0.037 -0.038 0.112 0.026 -0.056 -0.072 0.012 0.079 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.39 MINUTES