RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS140X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS140X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 057 1 Kirisky Pass (Altai) DENSITY_MAXIMUM LASI - 057 2 Russia Siberian larch 1500 5039-8459 1741 1994 - 057 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 057031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1890 1894 / 1932 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 057032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 057051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1873 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 057052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 2 GAPS / 1900 1932 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 057062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1767 1768 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 057071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 1 GAPS / 1909 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 057072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 43 IN 4 GAPS / 1890 1918 / 1948 1952 / 1960 1963 / 1984 1988 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 057082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1791 1792 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 057091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1792 1793 / 1823 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 057092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 057101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 4 GAPS / 1795 1799 / 1891 1894 / 1910 1916 / 1959 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 057102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 77 IN 2 GAPS / 1809 1811 / 1887 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 057111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 3 GAPS / 1849 1854 / 1895 1900 / 1909 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 057112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1890 1892 / 1914 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 057121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 3 GAPS / 1746 1750 / 1849 1853 / 1906 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 057122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1889 1894 / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 057131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 56 IN 5 GAPS / 1820 1831 / 1849 1878 / 1890 1895 / 1949 1954 / / 1972 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 057132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1776 1778 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 0.798 0.172 -0.510 2.231 0.120 0.774 2 057012 1742 1907 166 0.858 0.136 -0.639 3.128 0.111 0.635 3 057021 1741 1994 254 0.866 0.099 -1.424 5.406 0.104 0.347 4 057022 1746 1994 249 0.879 0.100 -1.398 5.408 0.088 0.520 5 057031 1772 1994 223 0.814 0.146 -0.691 2.528 0.103 0.749 6 057032 1787 1994 208 0.792 0.139 -0.581 2.599 0.103 0.738 7 057041 1742 1994 253 0.923 0.166 -0.942 2.891 0.110 0.692 8 057042 1741 1881 141 0.963 0.138 -1.832 5.649 0.085 0.667 9 057051 1755 1994 240 0.881 0.116 -0.794 3.537 0.092 0.634 10 057052 1767 1994 228 0.865 0.134 -1.520 5.018 0.096 0.703 11 057061 1790 1984 195 0.831 0.127 -1.280 4.027 0.104 0.619 12 057062 1754 1994 241 0.848 0.108 -1.175 4.142 0.090 0.578 13 057071 1762 1994 233 0.738 0.132 -0.846 3.172 0.124 0.627 14 057072 1765 1994 230 0.696 0.141 -0.624 2.458 0.130 0.671 15 057081 1752 1994 243 0.816 0.135 -0.791 3.211 0.122 0.615 16 057082 1761 1994 234 0.748 0.146 -0.303 2.115 0.141 0.606 17 057091 1754 1994 241 0.826 0.160 -1.043 3.096 0.119 0.698 18 057092 1745 1994 250 0.865 0.122 -0.978 3.539 0.102 0.594 19 057101 1759 1977 219 0.826 0.135 -0.952 3.891 0.131 0.482 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 0.861 0.133 -1.305 5.289 0.143 0.308 21 057111 1743 1992 250 0.810 0.121 -0.995 3.636 0.128 0.358 22 057112 1744 1994 251 0.854 0.105 -1.184 4.304 0.093 0.524 23 057121 1741 1994 254 0.846 0.137 -0.919 3.374 0.131 0.512 24 057122 1757 1994 238 0.783 0.137 -0.451 2.418 0.119 0.588 25 057131 1760 1983 224 0.763 0.165 -0.223 1.991 0.133 0.704 26 057132 1761 1994 234 0.893 0.129 -1.213 4.697 0.095 0.603 27 057141 1763 1994 232 0.853 0.167 -0.966 2.988 0.132 0.653 28 057142 1767 1994 228 0.901 0.122 -2.290 9.956 0.103 0.477 29 057151 1759 1994 236 0.829 0.116 -1.229 4.074 0.108 0.537 30 057152 1760 1994 235 0.808 0.117 -0.995 3.744 0.112 0.544 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1741 TO 1994 254 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 219 0.834 0.133 -1.003 3.817 0.112 0.592 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.056 0.019 0.439 1.557 0.017 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 0.838 0.134 -0.972 3.538 0.111 0.610 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.057 0.020 0.538 1.414 0.026 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.696 0.099 -2.290 1.991 0.085 0.308 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 0.808 0.121 -1.229 2.891 0.102 0.524 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 0.865 0.141 -0.691 4.304 0.128 0.671 MAXIMUM VALUE 254 0.963 0.172 -0.223 9.956 0.143 0.774 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.576 0.108 0.005 -0.436 3.454 0.181 0.926 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.181 SERIES 057011 AND 057102 215 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.926 SERIES 057041 AND 057042 140 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1766. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 378. 435. 435. 406. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.336 0.565 0.610 0.559 0.594 0.630 0.539 0.478 SDEV 0.354 0.155 0.135 0.140 0.149 0.124 0.158 0.171 SERR 0.204 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.911 0.975 0.979 0.974 0.977 0.980 0.971 0.962 NSS 20.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.8 28.2 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 0.838 0.106 -0.765 2.991 0.087 0.651 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.651 -0.199 0.267 76 178 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.53 1.00 1.07 1.60 4.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.71 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 234. 19. 141. 224. 243. 254. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.648 0.494 0.431 0.437 0.426 0.363 0.322 0.309 0.317 0.255 PACF 0.648 0.127 0.122 0.164 0.094 -0.009 0.019 0.038 0.058 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.125 0.170 0.192 0.206 0.220 0.233 0.242 0.248 0.254 0.260 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.462 0.507 0.054 0.023 0.118 0.098 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 057011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00172740 0.99214524 2 057012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00182818 1.01024318 3 057021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039977 0.91656095 4 057022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063059 0.95745885 5 057031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00155331 0.98296243 6 057032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00156383 0.95091718 7 057041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00120665 1.07608974 8 057042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121593 1.04895544 9 057051 1 0.19753419 0.03269217 0.00000000 0.85704112 10 057052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077061 0.94525528 11 057061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092808 0.92228496 12 057062 1 0.14008784 0.01289522 0.00000000 0.80535680 13 057071 1 0.19390045 0.01567321 0.00000000 0.68582356 14 057072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111160 0.80753183 15 057081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127963 0.97171140 16 057082 1 0.41880274 0.00676051 0.00000000 0.54036468 17 057091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092301 0.94105268 18 057092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043065 0.91925091 19 057101 1 0.23568508 0.01162510 0.00000000 0.73176277 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 057102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022053 0.85356528 21 057111 1 0.12883204 0.01479973 0.00000000 0.76311755 22 057112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007167 0.85858667 23 057121 1 0.35823879 0.00470605 0.00000000 0.62799704 24 057122 1 0.26472613 0.01196739 0.00000000 0.68564922 25 057131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00175069 0.95549452 26 057132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094563 1.00576329 27 057141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134022 1.00910997 28 057142 1 0.08338927 0.01900196 0.00000000 0.88201934 29 057151 1 0.56576419 0.00149098 0.00000000 0.35257512 30 057152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00096503 0.92178833 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.176 -0.100 2.729 0.120 0.590 2 057012 1742 1907 166 1.000 0.127 -0.440 2.869 0.110 0.371 3 057021 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.110 -1.356 5.228 0.103 0.275 4 057022 1746 1994 249 1.000 0.104 -1.188 4.756 0.088 0.390 5 057031 1772 1994 223 1.000 0.141 -0.638 2.851 0.102 0.514 6 057032 1787 1994 208 1.000 0.138 -0.744 3.419 0.102 0.500 7 057041 1742 1994 253 1.000 0.159 -0.888 3.290 0.110 0.564 8 057042 1741 1881 141 1.000 0.137 -1.665 5.278 0.085 0.628 9 057051 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.124 -0.858 3.528 0.092 0.586 10 057052 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.145 -1.027 4.281 0.091 0.676 11 057061 1790 1984 195 1.000 0.143 -1.151 3.933 0.104 0.552 12 057062 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.121 -1.209 4.251 0.091 0.507 13 057071 1762 1994 233 1.000 0.168 -0.604 3.319 0.124 0.552 14 057072 1765 1994 230 1.000 0.186 -0.116 2.607 0.126 0.628 15 057081 1752 1994 243 1.000 0.131 -0.698 3.511 0.121 0.316 16 057082 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.157 -0.270 2.793 0.140 0.363 17 057091 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.182 -0.940 3.249 0.120 0.651 18 057092 1745 1994 250 1.000 0.137 -0.867 3.265 0.101 0.563 19 057101 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.156 -0.934 3.571 0.126 0.486 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 1.000 0.150 -1.048 4.559 0.131 0.376 21 057111 1743 1992 250 1.000 0.156 -0.630 3.044 0.125 0.443 22 057112 1744 1994 251 1.000 0.127 -1.045 3.821 0.093 0.538 23 057121 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.155 -0.622 3.107 0.129 0.455 24 057122 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.163 -0.427 2.661 0.118 0.538 25 057131 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.157 -0.007 3.010 0.127 0.454 26 057132 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.130 -1.285 5.353 0.096 0.506 27 057141 1763 1994 232 1.000 0.173 -0.829 3.362 0.131 0.524 28 057142 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.133 -2.412 10.399 0.102 0.465 29 057151 1759 1994 236 1.000 0.130 -1.059 3.989 0.108 0.439 30 057152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.124 -0.677 3.796 0.112 0.331 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 229 1.000 0.145 -0.858 3.861 0.111 0.493 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.021 0.485 1.462 0.015 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.142 -0.863 3.465 0.110 0.506 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.027 0.437 1.207 0.024 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.104 -2.412 2.607 0.085 0.275 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.130 -1.059 3.044 0.101 0.439 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.157 -0.622 4.251 0.125 0.563 MAXIMUM VALUE 254 1.000 0.186 -0.007 10.399 0.140 0.676 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 057011 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 057012 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 057021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 057022 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 057031 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 057032 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 057041 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 057042 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 057051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 057052 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 057061 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 057062 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 057071 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 057072 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 057081 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 057082 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 057091 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 057092 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 057101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 057102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 057111 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 057112 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 057121 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 057122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 057131 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 057132 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 057141 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 057142 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 057151 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 057152 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 0.997 0.150 -0.294 2.783 0.120 0.448 2 057012 1742 1907 166 1.000 0.124 -0.374 2.886 0.110 0.332 3 057021 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.109 -1.376 5.341 0.103 0.258 4 057022 1746 1994 249 1.000 0.094 -1.076 5.401 0.088 0.218 5 057031 1772 1994 223 0.999 0.133 -0.543 3.173 0.102 0.454 6 057032 1787 1994 208 1.000 0.134 -0.695 3.337 0.102 0.477 7 057041 1742 1994 253 1.000 0.157 -0.889 3.349 0.110 0.557 8 057042 1741 1881 141 0.999 0.131 -1.621 5.502 0.085 0.595 9 057051 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.122 -0.795 3.495 0.092 0.572 10 057052 1767 1994 228 0.998 0.132 -1.120 4.665 0.091 0.602 11 057061 1790 1984 195 1.000 0.139 -1.165 3.918 0.103 0.525 12 057062 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.120 -1.193 4.311 0.091 0.494 13 057071 1762 1994 233 1.000 0.165 -0.569 3.296 0.124 0.538 14 057072 1765 1994 230 1.000 0.184 -0.062 2.684 0.126 0.616 15 057081 1752 1994 243 1.000 0.130 -0.660 3.617 0.121 0.308 16 057082 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.156 -0.268 2.795 0.140 0.349 17 057091 1754 1994 241 0.999 0.176 -0.994 3.472 0.120 0.621 18 057092 1745 1994 250 1.000 0.131 -0.801 3.469 0.101 0.513 19 057101 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.152 -0.783 3.746 0.126 0.450 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 1.000 0.147 -1.115 4.710 0.131 0.350 21 057111 1743 1992 250 1.000 0.154 -0.593 3.116 0.125 0.425 22 057112 1744 1994 251 1.000 0.125 -1.075 3.979 0.093 0.522 23 057121 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.154 -0.628 3.142 0.129 0.446 24 057122 1757 1994 238 0.999 0.158 -0.420 2.684 0.118 0.513 25 057131 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.156 -0.010 3.049 0.127 0.446 26 057132 1761 1994 234 0.999 0.124 -1.325 5.582 0.096 0.454 27 057141 1763 1994 232 1.000 0.171 -0.805 3.574 0.131 0.506 28 057142 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.132 -2.322 10.178 0.102 0.450 29 057151 1759 1994 236 1.000 0.130 -1.077 4.030 0.108 0.433 30 057152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.120 -0.623 4.330 0.112 0.264 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 229 1.000 0.140 -0.842 3.987 0.111 0.458 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.020 0.477 1.452 0.015 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.134 -0.798 3.535 0.110 0.454 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.031 0.546 1.188 0.024 0.100 MINIMUM VALUE 141 0.997 0.094 -2.322 2.684 0.085 0.218 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.125 -1.115 3.142 0.101 0.425 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.156 -0.569 4.330 0.125 0.525 MAXIMUM VALUE 254 1.000 0.184 -0.010 10.178 0.140 0.621 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.542 0.082 0.004 0.147 3.679 0.268 0.899 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.268 SERIES 057011 AND 057052 224 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.899 SERIES 057041 AND 057042 140 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1766. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 378. 435. 435. 406. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.442 0.579 0.567 0.566 0.600 0.633 0.554 0.471 SDEV 0.199 0.145 0.138 0.141 0.137 0.126 0.139 0.155 SERR 0.115 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.941 0.976 0.975 0.975 0.978 0.980 0.972 0.961 NSS 20.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.8 28.2 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 1.002 0.104 -0.712 3.375 0.085 0.472 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.430 -0.157 0.244 116 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.46 1.00 1.08 1.53 5.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.67 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.470 0.238 0.154 0.158 0.126 0.027 -0.035 -0.033 0.005 -0.090 PACF 0.470 0.022 0.044 0.084 0.017 -0.075 -0.049 -0.004 0.030 -0.123 95% C.L. 0.125 0.151 0.157 0.159 0.161 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.222 0.471 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.495 0.233 0.144 0.148 0.130 0.046 -0.003 -0.020 0.006 -0.087 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.495 2 0.503 -0.016 3 0.504 -0.039 0.046 4 0.500 -0.036 0.006 0.081 5 0.498 -0.036 0.007 0.068 0.027 6 0.499 -0.032 0.007 0.066 0.056 -0.058 7 0.498 -0.031 0.008 0.066 0.055 -0.047 -0.022 8 0.498 -0.032 0.009 0.067 0.055 -0.048 -0.012 -0.019 9 0.498 -0.032 0.011 0.066 0.054 -0.048 -0.012 -0.031 0.024 10 0.501 -0.036 0.009 0.059 0.061 -0.040 -0.010 -0.035 0.088 -0.130 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1948.70 1879.34 1881.27 1882.72 1883.04 1884.85 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1885.99 1887.87 1889.78 1891.64 1889.32 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.495 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.49 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.44 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.495 0.245 0.121 0.060 0.030 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.002 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 057011 1 0.202 0.449 2 057012 1 0.112 0.334 3 057021 1 0.072 0.259 4 057022 1 0.074 0.220 5 057031 1 0.208 0.454 6 057032 1 0.236 0.483 7 057041 1 0.312 0.557 8 057042 1 0.386 0.595 9 057051 1 0.330 0.573 10 057052 1 0.376 0.602 11 057061 1 0.287 0.534 12 057062 1 0.248 0.496 13 057071 1 0.300 0.538 14 057072 1 0.384 0.617 15 057081 1 0.144 0.308 16 057082 1 0.133 0.350 17 057091 1 0.387 0.622 18 057092 1 0.264 0.514 19 057101 1 0.205 0.451 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 057102 1 0.126 0.352 21 057111 1 0.184 0.429 22 057112 1 0.284 0.522 23 057121 1 0.201 0.446 24 057122 1 0.266 0.515 25 057131 1 0.200 0.447 26 057132 1 0.217 0.462 27 057141 1 0.258 0.507 28 057142 1 0.227 0.452 29 057151 1 0.199 0.434 30 057152 1 0.072 0.265 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.230 0.460 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 0.108 MEDIAN 1 0.222 0.458 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.103 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.072 0.220 LOWER HINGE 1 0.184 0.429 UPPER HINGE 1 0.287 0.534 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.387 0.622 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 057011 1771 1994 224 1.000 0.134 -0.262 3.606 0.144 -0.005 2 057012 1742 1907 166 1.000 0.117 -0.359 2.993 0.126 -0.003 3 057021 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.105 -1.446 5.862 0.114 0.018 4 057022 1746 1994 249 1.000 0.092 -1.128 6.025 0.096 0.037 5 057031 1772 1994 223 1.000 0.119 -0.723 4.426 0.124 -0.019 6 057032 1787 1994 208 1.000 0.118 -0.477 3.867 0.124 -0.029 7 057041 1742 1994 253 1.000 0.130 -1.052 5.186 0.136 -0.022 8 057042 1741 1881 141 1.000 0.105 -1.416 7.118 0.117 -0.130 9 057051 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.100 -0.459 3.427 0.114 -0.030 10 057052 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.105 -0.895 5.921 0.119 -0.084 11 057061 1790 1984 195 1.000 0.118 -1.211 5.221 0.128 -0.017 12 057062 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.104 -0.881 4.740 0.110 -0.027 13 057071 1762 1994 233 1.000 0.139 -0.065 3.417 0.156 -0.063 14 057072 1765 1994 230 1.000 0.145 -0.444 3.965 0.158 0.045 15 057081 1752 1994 243 1.000 0.124 -0.573 3.311 0.135 0.071 16 057082 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.146 -0.244 2.801 0.159 0.038 17 057091 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.138 -0.594 4.060 0.149 -0.001 18 057092 1745 1994 250 1.000 0.112 -0.726 4.197 0.121 0.003 19 057101 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.136 -0.493 3.916 0.150 0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 057102 1761 1985 225 1.000 0.138 -1.322 6.394 0.152 -0.013 21 057111 1743 1992 250 1.000 0.139 -0.816 4.122 0.149 0.000 22 057112 1744 1994 251 1.000 0.106 -0.831 4.685 0.119 -0.065 23 057121 1741 1994 254 1.000 0.138 -0.463 3.657 0.155 -0.023 24 057122 1757 1994 238 1.000 0.136 -0.411 3.962 0.146 -0.020 25 057131 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.140 -0.278 3.508 0.152 -0.007 26 057132 1761 1994 234 1.000 0.110 -1.323 6.643 0.119 -0.023 27 057141 1763 1994 232 1.000 0.147 -0.526 4.041 0.158 -0.012 28 057142 1767 1994 228 1.000 0.117 -2.068 11.217 0.123 -0.078 29 057151 1759 1994 236 1.000 0.117 -0.952 4.259 0.131 -0.049 30 057152 1760 1994 235 1.000 0.116 -0.714 4.652 0.125 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 229 1.000 0.123 -0.772 4.707 0.134 -0.017 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.016 0.448 1.657 0.017 0.041 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 234 1.000 0.118 -0.718 4.159 0.130 -0.015 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.028 0.593 1.564 0.032 0.029 MINIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.092 -2.068 2.801 0.096 -0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.110 -1.052 3.657 0.119 -0.029 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.138 -0.459 5.221 0.150 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 254 1.000 0.147 -0.065 11.217 0.159 0.071 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.532 0.077 0.004 0.348 4.080 0.281 0.881 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.281 SERIES 057111 AND 057142 226 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.881 SERIES 057041 AND 057042 140 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1766. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 378. 435. 435. 406. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.614 0.620 0.546 0.497 0.527 0.563 0.535 0.503 SDEV 0.121 0.138 0.133 0.135 0.115 0.108 0.125 0.128 SERR 0.070 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.970 0.980 0.973 0.967 0.971 0.974 0.970 0.966 NSS 20.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.8 28.2 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 1.002 0.090 -0.644 3.679 0.099 0.010 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.307 -0.112 0.187 125 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.54 1.00 1.10 1.64 6.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.81 0.89 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 -0.007 0.003 0.083 0.093 -0.019 -0.048 -0.024 0.089 -0.028 PACF 0.010 -0.007 0.003 0.083 0.092 -0.020 -0.048 -0.032 0.075 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.007 0.002 0.082 0.092 -0.020 -0.048 -0.024 0.089 -0.028 PACF 0.000 -0.007 0.002 0.082 0.093 -0.018 -0.048 -0.033 0.075 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1741 1994 254 1.002 0.104 -0.669 3.292 0.083 0.505 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.503 0.268 0.177 0.175 0.139 0.035 -0.021 -0.018 0.013 -0.085 PACF 0.503 0.019 0.047 0.088 0.012 -0.082 -0.036 0.004 0.028 -0.128 95% C.L. 0.125 0.154 0.161 0.164 0.167 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.169 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.255 0.504 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES