RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS149L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS149L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 075 1 Takhojama WIDTH_LATE LADA - 075 2 Russia Larch 200 6021-15407 1690 1993 - 075 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 075012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 075041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 47 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1843 / 1855 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 075042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 48 IN 2 GAPS / 1855 1896 / 1938 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 075051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1907 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 075052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1885 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 075061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 075081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1852 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 075101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 075102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 075121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1762 1763 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 075122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 55 IN 1 GAPS / 1885 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 0.233 0.126 1.608 6.484 0.360 0.629 2 075012 1745 1993 249 0.203 0.118 3.831 27.306 0.365 0.488 3 075021 1813 1993 181 0.405 0.297 1.060 3.583 0.415 0.720 4 075022 1829 1993 165 0.599 0.383 0.501 2.265 0.437 0.653 5 075031 1784 1983 200 0.241 0.147 1.086 3.751 0.354 0.677 6 075032 1778 1993 216 0.213 0.156 1.230 4.077 0.365 0.701 7 075041 1760 1993 234 0.145 0.095 1.658 5.151 0.354 0.749 8 075042 1754 1993 240 0.141 0.094 1.714 5.517 0.313 0.738 9 075051 1866 1993 128 0.353 0.184 0.615 2.546 0.418 0.557 10 075052 1853 1993 141 0.369 0.190 0.728 3.259 0.416 0.504 11 075061 1832 1993 162 0.264 0.131 1.034 4.569 0.428 0.507 12 075062 1829 1993 165 0.292 0.156 1.059 4.676 0.451 0.564 13 075071 1727 1993 267 0.160 0.137 1.337 4.185 0.345 0.790 14 075072 1718 1993 276 0.179 0.149 1.312 3.927 0.364 0.774 15 075081 1810 1993 184 0.220 0.128 1.703 8.802 0.321 0.592 16 075082 1804 1993 190 0.222 0.131 0.679 2.964 0.352 0.722 17 075091 1690 1993 304 0.082 0.039 1.992 9.385 0.319 0.499 18 075092 1696 1909 214 0.108 0.042 1.075 3.838 0.289 0.423 19 075101 1846 1993 148 0.108 0.048 1.242 4.595 0.330 0.447 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 0.103 0.038 0.949 4.961 0.278 0.448 21 075111 1746 1993 248 0.186 0.120 2.095 8.415 0.349 0.700 22 075112 1746 1993 248 0.149 0.087 1.738 5.733 0.321 0.705 23 075121 1758 1993 236 0.083 0.057 3.883 28.569 0.338 0.604 24 075122 1768 1993 226 0.084 0.033 0.913 4.719 0.300 0.499 25 075131 1746 1993 248 0.183 0.138 2.136 7.544 0.321 0.776 26 075132 1793 1993 201 0.098 0.060 1.615 6.638 0.383 0.692 27 075141 1853 1993 141 0.150 0.067 0.664 2.825 0.416 0.325 28 075142 1827 1993 167 0.134 0.109 2.090 6.817 0.327 0.727 29 075151 1785 1993 209 0.093 0.041 1.089 4.655 0.446 0.113 30 075152 1810 1993 184 0.082 0.035 0.950 3.833 0.448 0.106 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1690 TO 1993 304 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.196 0.118 1.453 6.520 0.364 0.581 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.116 0.077 0.801 6.102 0.050 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 196 0.169 0.119 1.236 4.666 0.354 0.616 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.125 0.090 0.765 2.805 0.094 0.221 MINIMUM VALUE 127 0.082 0.033 0.501 2.265 0.278 0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 0.108 0.057 0.950 3.833 0.321 0.499 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.233 0.147 1.714 6.638 0.416 0.720 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 0.599 0.383 3.883 28.569 0.451 0.790 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.463 0.185 0.009 -0.394 3.118 -0.114 0.927 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.114 SERIES 075022 AND 075101 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.927 SERIES 075071 AND 075072 267 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.359 0.511 0.429 0.342 0.524 0.375 0.510 0.526 0.447 SDEV 0.327 0.151 0.199 0.238 0.190 0.205 0.139 0.144 0.154 SERR 0.189 0.025 0.023 0.019 0.013 0.011 0.007 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.820 0.934 0.932 0.923 0.968 0.947 0.969 0.970 0.959 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.163 0.085 1.537 6.255 0.309 0.717 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.818 0.584 -0.003 173 131 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.93 3.58 1.00 1.64 5.21 28.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 206. 81. 128. 167. 248. 304. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.714 0.631 0.605 0.624 0.600 0.621 0.566 0.545 0.529 0.549 PACF 0.714 0.246 0.196 0.222 0.098 0.178 -0.015 0.028 0.019 0.079 95% C.L. 0.115 0.163 0.192 0.216 0.239 0.258 0.277 0.291 0.305 0.316 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.603 0.399 0.063 0.065 0.161 0.027 0.190 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 075011 1 0.35125655 0.01856900 0.00000000 0.15867333 2 075012 1 0.31467655 0.03390865 0.00000000 0.16677028 3 075021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352446 0.72586370 4 075022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00545981 1.05170953 5 075031 1 0.41166097 0.00805983 0.00000000 0.03780605 6 075032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170983 0.39861801 7 075041 1 0.31369767 0.03536059 0.00000000 0.09922729 8 075042 1 0.26003376 0.02311661 0.00000000 0.08287735 9 075051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00307767 0.55142587 10 075052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00201686 0.51360947 11 075061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100999 0.34500927 12 075062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00190182 0.45033628 13 075071 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 075072 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 075081 1 0.33904237 0.00812884 0.00000000 0.04531129 16 075082 1 0.37575695 0.00897459 0.00000000 0.04278143 17 075091 1 0.07708858 0.00404894 0.00000000 0.03789413 18 075092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018550 0.12835199 19 075101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026129 0.08761579 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 075102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005365 0.09737226 21 075111 1 0.35107061 0.01857336 0.00000000 0.11093215 22 075112 1 0.24674007 0.01817956 0.00000000 0.09527998 23 075121 1 0.11152797 0.01873668 0.00000000 0.05867029 24 075122 1 0.06402795 0.03170245 0.00000000 0.07511780 25 075131 1 0.47796872 0.02316768 0.00000000 0.10102125 26 075132 1 0.18871994 0.03044712 0.00000000 0.06815529 27 075141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050482 0.18626748 28 075142 1 0.37197974 0.03027648 0.00000000 0.06237377 29 075151 1 0.06172314 0.01075610 0.00000000 0.06892577 30 075152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015711 0.09654313 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.369 0.554 3.524 0.358 0.257 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.404 1.102 5.480 0.363 0.298 3 075021 1813 1993 181 0.972 0.484 0.683 2.816 0.414 0.449 4 075022 1829 1993 165 0.973 0.440 0.328 2.367 0.435 0.344 5 075031 1784 1983 200 1.001 0.463 0.897 3.939 0.352 0.459 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.025 0.489 0.700 2.836 0.364 0.478 7 075041 1760 1993 234 1.000 0.421 0.990 3.884 0.329 0.411 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.001 0.432 1.003 4.042 0.301 0.489 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.002 0.402 0.470 3.263 0.413 0.234 10 075052 1853 1993 141 0.997 0.447 0.684 4.368 0.410 0.298 11 075061 1832 1993 162 0.996 0.458 0.971 4.784 0.429 0.388 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.002 0.434 0.893 4.491 0.449 0.240 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.352 0.741 3.681 0.345 0.228 14 075072 1718 1993 276 1.000 0.374 0.611 3.686 0.363 0.233 15 075081 1810 1993 184 0.998 0.462 1.406 6.373 0.318 0.402 16 075082 1804 1993 190 0.997 0.481 0.858 3.729 0.351 0.509 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.403 1.313 6.287 0.318 0.428 18 075092 1696 1909 214 0.999 0.355 0.771 3.452 0.288 0.371 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.001 0.456 1.610 6.753 0.326 0.482 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.365 0.805 4.354 0.277 0.458 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.391 1.191 5.490 0.347 0.352 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.367 0.898 4.132 0.320 0.380 23 075121 1758 1993 236 1.000 0.495 1.978 11.394 0.334 0.504 24 075122 1768 1993 226 1.000 0.325 0.421 3.233 0.290 0.363 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.001 0.374 0.620 3.154 0.321 0.404 26 075132 1793 1993 201 1.000 0.418 0.480 3.111 0.381 0.450 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.415 0.464 2.700 0.413 0.255 28 075142 1827 1993 167 1.005 0.369 0.662 3.778 0.326 0.407 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.405 0.780 3.511 0.445 0.008 30 075152 1810 1993 184 0.999 0.412 0.745 3.200 0.446 0.046 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 0.999 0.415 0.854 4.260 0.361 0.354 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.009 0.046 0.364 1.743 0.051 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.413 0.775 3.754 0.352 0.384 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.001 0.082 0.370 1.258 0.093 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.972 0.325 0.328 2.367 0.277 0.008 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 0.999 0.374 0.620 3.233 0.321 0.257 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.001 0.456 0.990 4.491 0.413 0.450 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.025 0.495 1.978 11.394 0.449 0.509 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 075011 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 075012 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 075021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 075022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 075031 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 075032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 075041 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 075042 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 075051 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 075052 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 075061 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 075062 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 075071 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 075072 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 075081 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 075082 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 075091 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 075092 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 075101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 075102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 075111 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 075112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 075121 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 075122 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 075131 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 075132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 075141 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 075142 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 075151 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 075152 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 0.998 0.357 0.476 3.198 0.358 0.200 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.404 1.172 5.872 0.363 0.289 3 075021 1813 1993 181 0.986 0.428 0.719 3.355 0.413 0.293 4 075022 1829 1993 165 0.997 0.413 0.094 2.220 0.435 0.240 5 075031 1784 1983 200 0.995 0.450 0.881 3.997 0.352 0.439 6 075032 1778 1993 216 0.994 0.454 0.702 3.015 0.364 0.420 7 075041 1760 1993 234 0.996 0.399 1.053 4.292 0.329 0.349 8 075042 1754 1993 240 0.994 0.396 1.106 4.147 0.301 0.431 9 075051 1866 1993 128 0.998 0.398 0.516 3.397 0.413 0.214 10 075052 1853 1993 141 0.993 0.426 0.754 5.207 0.409 0.229 11 075061 1832 1993 162 0.997 0.414 0.507 3.481 0.429 0.278 12 075062 1829 1993 165 0.996 0.409 0.667 3.808 0.448 0.165 13 075071 1727 1993 267 0.999 0.349 0.782 3.813 0.345 0.212 14 075072 1718 1993 276 0.999 0.370 0.616 3.783 0.363 0.218 15 075081 1810 1993 184 0.996 0.430 1.232 6.138 0.319 0.373 16 075082 1804 1993 190 0.993 0.441 0.734 3.958 0.352 0.465 17 075091 1690 1993 304 0.998 0.391 1.205 5.837 0.318 0.406 18 075092 1696 1909 214 0.994 0.327 0.728 3.551 0.288 0.268 19 075101 1846 1993 148 0.991 0.368 0.935 3.682 0.325 0.301 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 0.997 0.320 0.550 3.699 0.277 0.350 21 075111 1746 1993 248 0.999 0.388 1.159 5.387 0.347 0.342 22 075112 1746 1993 248 0.999 0.363 0.900 4.162 0.320 0.368 23 075121 1758 1993 236 0.994 0.455 1.823 10.626 0.334 0.454 24 075122 1768 1993 226 0.999 0.323 0.451 3.333 0.290 0.353 25 075131 1746 1993 248 0.999 0.368 0.579 3.121 0.321 0.393 26 075132 1793 1993 201 0.997 0.411 0.452 3.053 0.381 0.433 27 075141 1853 1993 141 0.999 0.409 0.398 2.578 0.413 0.245 28 075142 1827 1993 167 0.998 0.327 0.526 4.051 0.327 0.244 29 075151 1785 1993 209 0.999 0.403 0.796 3.616 0.445 0.000 30 075152 1810 1993 184 0.999 0.406 0.721 3.160 0.446 0.025 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 0.997 0.393 0.774 4.118 0.361 0.300 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.003 0.039 0.337 1.551 0.051 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 0.997 0.401 0.724 3.741 0.352 0.297 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.005 0.046 0.409 0.830 0.092 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.986 0.320 0.094 2.220 0.277 0.000 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 0.994 0.368 0.526 3.333 0.321 0.229 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 0.999 0.414 0.935 4.162 0.413 0.393 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.455 1.823 10.626 0.448 0.465 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.446 0.117 0.006 -0.147 3.593 0.055 0.833 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.055 SERIES 075092 AND 075132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.833 SERIES 075151 AND 075152 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.336 0.483 0.322 0.356 0.502 0.460 0.492 0.527 0.475 SDEV 0.381 0.159 0.209 0.213 0.169 0.177 0.142 0.135 0.132 SERR 0.220 0.026 0.024 0.017 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.805 0.927 0.896 0.927 0.965 0.962 0.966 0.970 0.963 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.972 0.281 0.358 3.091 0.285 0.246 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.567 0.240 0.031 92 212 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.50 1.00 1.08 1.59 8.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.245 0.073 0.075 0.124 0.034 0.066 -0.014 -0.001 -0.010 -0.060 PACF 0.245 0.013 0.058 0.098 -0.023 0.058 -0.057 0.000 -0.013 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.115 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.060 0.245 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.280 0.156 0.112 0.172 0.055 0.025 -0.106 0.026 0.003 -0.078 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.280 2 0.256 0.084 3 0.252 0.071 0.053 4 0.245 0.062 0.020 0.129 5 0.250 0.062 0.022 0.138 -0.037 6 0.249 0.064 0.023 0.139 -0.033 -0.015 7 0.247 0.060 0.042 0.142 -0.024 0.021 -0.141 8 0.257 0.058 0.044 0.132 -0.027 0.016 -0.159 0.072 9 0.257 0.058 0.044 0.132 -0.027 0.016 -0.159 0.072 0.001 10 0.257 0.064 0.031 0.134 -0.029 0.027 -0.155 0.077 0.023 -0.084 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2840.76 2817.99 2817.83 2818.99 2815.86 2817.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2819.39 2815.27 2815.69 2817.69 2817.52 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.256 0.084 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.48 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.26 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.256 0.150 0.060 0.028 0.012 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 075011 2 0.045 0.200 0.001 2 075012 2 0.086 0.299 -0.034 3 075021 2 0.164 0.209 0.289 4 075022 2 0.085 0.203 0.165 5 075031 2 0.221 0.362 0.177 6 075032 2 0.230 0.342 0.187 7 075041 2 0.178 0.263 0.247 8 075042 2 0.245 0.318 0.262 9 075051 2 0.056 0.212 0.018 10 075052 2 0.067 0.201 0.123 11 075061 2 0.083 0.262 0.065 12 075062 2 0.035 0.167 -0.004 13 075071 2 0.046 0.216 -0.020 14 075072 2 0.050 0.229 -0.049 15 075081 2 0.164 0.318 0.150 16 075082 2 0.228 0.417 0.103 17 075091 2 0.189 0.411 -0.011 18 075092 2 0.090 0.265 0.013 19 075101 2 0.103 0.289 0.044 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 075102 2 0.167 0.275 0.216 21 075111 2 0.120 0.327 0.045 22 075112 2 0.139 0.344 0.066 23 075121 2 0.227 0.426 0.064 24 075122 2 0.141 0.313 0.113 25 075131 2 0.181 0.336 0.148 26 075132 2 0.217 0.382 0.120 27 075141 2 0.068 0.259 -0.040 28 075142 2 0.073 0.254 -0.037 29 075151 2 0.011 0.000 0.074 30 075152 2 0.003 0.024 0.051 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.124 0.271 0.085 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.073 0.099 0.096 MEDIAN 2 0.112 0.270 0.065 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.114 0.124 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.003 0.000 -0.049 LOWER HINGE 2 0.067 0.212 0.001 UPPER HINGE 2 0.181 0.336 0.150 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.245 0.426 0.289 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.349 0.462 3.227 0.392 0.000 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.386 1.259 7.018 0.407 -0.001 3 075021 1813 1993 181 1.000 0.392 0.494 3.207 0.443 -0.011 4 075022 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.395 0.014 2.375 0.472 0.005 5 075031 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.397 0.874 4.367 0.429 -0.010 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.000 0.404 0.787 3.363 0.427 -0.033 7 075041 1760 1993 234 1.000 0.361 0.750 4.103 0.379 0.011 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.000 0.345 0.855 4.118 0.357 0.015 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.000 0.389 0.285 3.369 0.457 0.000 10 075052 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.411 0.799 5.715 0.439 -0.001 11 075061 1832 1993 162 1.000 0.396 0.346 3.308 0.479 0.001 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.404 0.598 3.896 0.474 0.001 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.341 0.722 3.760 0.380 0.000 14 075072 1718 1993 276 1.000 0.360 0.689 4.415 0.390 -0.001 15 075081 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.394 0.910 5.863 0.391 0.010 16 075082 1804 1993 190 1.002 0.384 0.477 3.894 0.423 0.010 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.357 0.737 5.080 0.382 0.003 18 075092 1696 1909 214 1.000 0.315 0.768 4.036 0.328 -0.002 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.000 0.351 0.847 3.746 0.376 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.293 0.493 3.970 0.324 -0.015 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.364 0.937 4.850 0.403 -0.001 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.336 0.775 3.871 0.374 0.000 23 075121 1758 1993 236 1.002 0.396 1.251 9.357 0.408 0.028 24 075122 1768 1993 226 1.000 0.300 0.300 3.071 0.343 -0.009 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.334 0.375 3.144 0.383 -0.011 26 075132 1793 1993 201 1.000 0.367 0.223 3.045 0.441 -0.017 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.396 0.344 2.494 0.456 0.003 28 075142 1827 1993 167 1.000 0.317 0.236 3.843 0.366 0.004 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.402 0.751 3.437 0.446 0.005 30 075152 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.405 0.686 3.083 0.456 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 1.000 0.368 0.635 4.101 0.407 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.001 0.034 0.294 1.407 0.043 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.376 0.705 3.857 0.405 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.051 0.424 1.140 0.064 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 128 1.000 0.293 0.014 2.375 0.324 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.345 0.375 3.227 0.379 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.396 0.799 4.367 0.443 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.002 0.411 1.259 9.357 0.479 0.028 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.454 0.123 0.006 -0.356 3.500 -0.011 0.834 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.011 SERIES 075022 AND 075092 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.834 SERIES 075151 AND 075152 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.346 0.500 0.348 0.396 0.492 0.439 0.486 0.549 0.504 SDEV 0.402 0.152 0.175 0.210 0.167 0.165 0.144 0.142 0.135 SERR 0.232 0.025 0.020 0.017 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.811 0.931 0.907 0.938 0.964 0.959 0.966 0.973 0.967 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.980 0.272 0.306 3.545 0.321 -0.034 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.469 0.181 0.067 102 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.47 1.00 1.05 1.52 30.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.034 -0.088 0.009 0.106 -0.033 0.051 -0.033 -0.003 0.001 -0.060 PACF -0.034 -0.090 0.003 0.099 -0.025 0.067 -0.036 -0.006 0.000 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.009 0.004 0.103 -0.030 0.058 -0.034 -0.005 -0.001 -0.061 PACF 0.000 0.009 0.004 0.103 -0.030 0.057 -0.036 -0.016 0.005 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.980 0.285 0.369 3.149 0.278 0.289 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.288 0.180 0.096 0.131 0.022 0.059 -0.018 -0.013 -0.019 -0.062 PACF 0.288 0.106 0.021 0.091 -0.051 0.042 -0.051 -0.018 -0.001 -0.067 95% C.L. 0.115 0.124 0.127 0.128 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.094 0.258 0.106 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2.71 MINUTES